Learning From Others

Presentation to Saugeen Shores S.T.O.P. Town Hall Meeting Bill Palmer - Dec. 2011

Lets Look at Others

A commonly expressed point of view is, Others have used turbines and renewables for years, surely we can learn from their experience? So, lets have a look at what we can learn Lets look at what Ive seen in Denmark, Ireland, England, Scotland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Greece, Spain, New Zealand, the USA, and Quebec to compare to Ontario Well look too at what conference authors and our research tells us Well also look at economic and social impacts

We learn: Accepted turbines are small, in small clusters, distant from homes Repowering with larger noisier turbines leads to problems & concern large developments near cottages lead to problems & concern offshore installations ~ 10 kM from shore

Learn papers proposing setbacks of 50-100 m from roads were written in 1989, when turbines were 30m tall with 21m rotor - now used in Ontario for 100m towers with 100m rotor

Again - no homes nearby, small cluster.

While in Quebec

First installations - 500+ metre setbacks, one side only

Second installations - larger 1500 m setbacks

Third Installation ~ 8000 m setback to homes

Meanwhile in Ontario

Island of Crete (Greece) in Mediterranean Sea

Learn - present system primarily fossil (oil / gas)

Crete Wind - 160 MW total, can supply 42% of need at night

Learn - turbines not near homes (~ 8 km)

Crete also developing Solar, 90 MW total planned

Learning From Greek Guide

Greek wind generators are privately owned. The electric utility buys all the power they produce at a special rate, and then resells it to the consumers. Im not sure about our Greek economy though. I have a small apartment. They are adding a 240 euro a month (about $4400 a year) special tax on my electricity bill. No one can afford it ! She did not see the link, can you? 2 days after we left, the Greek President fell, with riots in streets due to austerity measures.

Learning from Spain

Closest turbine seen ~ 1.5 km to homes, some complaints here in Cadiz

The Situation in Spain

Spain is second only to Germany for wind turbine penetration in Europe. But, Germany exports more turbines, e.g., to Canada and USA, so profits there Spanish unemployment 22% Spanish youth unemployment (age 17 to 24) is close to 50% Job Creation? - or Job Loss? As energy prices rise

As Seen in Spain

Before the election, which ousted the government.

Meanwhile in Ontario
Auditor General report criticizes government for wind and solar contracts with inadequate scrutiny, notes jobs mostly temporary. (Dec 6) Premier McGuinty opens Windsor wind turbine supplier for the third time, claiming his governments heavily subsidized green energy remains the way of the future. (Dec 8) clean energy benefit reduces electricity bills by 10%, transferring cost to provincial debt The Fraser Institute warned that Ontarios long-standing addiction to corporate welfare (27.7 B$) has reached new heights. (Dec 8) Moodys credit rating agency warns Ontario credit rating at risk (Dec. 15) due to debt load

What Others Experience Tells Us

small studies do show adverse health effects of those near (< 1500 m) wind turbines compared to more distant (> 3300 m) - headaches, sleep disruption, new prescription medications required sound levels in hospitals at same level as wind turbines elevated blood pressure, respiration rate, heart rate sleep disruption can result in delayed sleep onset, recalled awakening, and repetitive non-recalled awakenings physiological link shown between response of ear to low frequency sound, unrelated to audibility 1 in 5 have heightened noise sensitivity cyclical quality of sound makes it more annoying

Our Research Confirms

wind turbines have highest output (and produce most noise) at night, when ground level winds are lowest, resulting in annoyance Wind turbines operating, even at very low power increase sound levels at all octaves up to 1000 Hz by 20 dB at sites 500 m from the turbine compared to a site in the same environment 5000 m from the nearest turbine As ground wind speed increases, sound level increases at all locations, near and distant from turbines by about 10 dB, but sites 500 m from nearest turbine stay 20 dB above the distant site Sound level at approved site is noticeably above model predicted value 25% of the time - so if predicted to be at limit, sound may be 3 dB above limit 25% of the time

Impact on Electrical System - Averages Can Mislead

The Devils in the Details

Ontarios consumption ~ 12,000 MW minimum to 16,000 to 24,000 MW maximum Nuclear ~ 10,500 MW base, headed to 12,000 (does not vary easily) (~$45 to $75 per MWh) Hydro ~ 7,000 MW (~2,000 run of river base, ~5,000 can be varied) (~$40 + per MWh) Gas ~ 7,000 MW, headed to 10,000 MW (~1,000 MW base) (~$120 + per MWh) Wind - headed to ~ 8,000 MW - poor during peak, best during off peak (~$145 per MWh) Solar - headed to ~ 2,000 MW - day only (~$400 - $800 per MWh) Coal - was 6600 MW (~$60 per MWh), headed to 0 mostly due to nuclear restart, and gas.

Winter

Spring

Summer

Fall

What Will Be the Result?

To allow for wind and gas during off peak hours, nuclear base load must be reduced Bruce nuclear units often cycle down at night to reduce system output now - contracts require capable units to be paid even if not producing. Wind contracts require wind to be taken first if available, or paid. Ontario pays out of province utilities to take excess generation. BIG cost overrun incurred, as consumer pays three times. Least expensive sources being replaced with more expensive. - More CO2 too. Predictions for Ontarios future?

Summary - What Have we Learned?

X X X X X X X
In the world, accepted wind turbines are small, distant from homes, and in small groups - In Ontario, wind turbines are large, close to and surrounding homes Wind turbines shown to have adverse effects by small studies, but NO comprehensive study has been done High costs for non-dispatchable power - increases power cost to consumers Job creation not matched by turbine installation Wind turbines do not match electrical system needs 1 in 5 have heightened noise awareness - in 100 homes, consider about half (50 homes) will have someone with adverse impact Basis for safety setbacks is misguided - bigger risk of injury than living on boundary of nuclear plant professional concern

We Have Not Learned Much

Does failure to listen to the experience of others predict the same result for Ontario as Greece and Spain? Actually it is worse, since we are siting turbines closer than Europe. We can predict health, safety, and economic adverse impacts.