What is 1.5 sigma shift. What is the reasoning behind arriving at the 1.5 figure (why n...

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What is 1.5 sigma shift. What is the reasoning behind arriving at the 1.5 figure (why not more or less than 1.5) to account for the sigma (Std Dev-SD) shift in mean ?
Follow V.B.

However stable any particular process may be, over a period of time, the business & environmental conditions change, which lead to variation in the process. Thus, it becomes necessary that these environmental changes need to be balanced by a compensation factor in order to account for these changes to ensure that the long term goal is met. This compensation factor is what is referred to as the 1.5 sigma (Std dev-SD) shift (in mean of the process). The 1.5 Sigma shift (in mean) has been introduced to explain the difference between short term sigma level (referred to as zst) and long term sigma level (referred to as zlt) performance of a process. So, a process that is operating at 6 Sigma in the short term will only operate at 4.5 Sigma in the long-term. There is no certain time frame to indicate what is/can be short term and what is/can be long term. It depends & differs from process to process depending on the duration of common & special cause/s variation affecting the process. Reasoning behind the 1.5 figure in accounting for the sigma (std dev) shift in the mean While anyone is tracking a process using SPC (Statistical Process control) chart it is hoped that there is logic in selection of the subgroup size (rational subgroups). Subgroup sizes can vary but one of the more common subgroup sizes is 4. That is four independent samples are taken and the average of the four independent samples is used for the X Bar chart. With an X Bar R chart the plots are of the average of the subgroups and the range of each subgroup. Control limits are set at 3 standard deviations of the subgroup averages on the X Bar R chart (using the average range for the calculation). Any general book/material on basic Statistics will include the calculation of the Standard Error of the Mean or sometimes called the Standard Error. Standard error of mean gives the difference between the standard deviation of Population & Standard deviation of sample. SEM=SDavg = Standard Deviation (SD) of individuals / SQRT (n) The standard deviation of the averages is equal to the standard deviation of the individuals divided by the square root of the sample size. Where n is the sample size. So, you see see that 3 standard deviations of the averages are the control limits on an X Bar chart. Using this knowledge and a sample size of four we get 3SDavg = 3 SD of individuals = 3 SD of individuals / SQRT (4) = 1.5 SD of individuals So, there is statistical logic behind selecting the 1.5 SD shift ! Further thoughts are invited from one & all.
8 months ago

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8 comments

Follow G. Michael

G. Michael Smith Great summation, I just got done teaching a class on this and it appears in both the MSA and SPC materials. In the manufacturng sector we usually do a trial run of 125 units, with this limited sample size to compute the variance. For short term capability using the Rbar/D2 to get the std deviation and then using the 1.5 std dev shift to compute the long term capability gives an excellent view into the future variation to be expected with a stable long term process. Because with the short sample study time variation cannot be measured. All of the Automotive OE's are now demanding that capability reports are of the long term version e.g. Ppk rather than the more traditional short term Cpk. They are interested what the process potential really is. So using the shift will give a more conservative estimate of that future variation. thanks for your summation and statistical relevance as this was an area that brought questions.
8 months ago Like Reply privately Flag as inappropriate

Follow Tom

Tom Pyzdek Mike makes sense, but, respectfully, V.B.'s statistical explanation is way off. The 1.5-sigma shift has nothing whatever to do with subgroup sizes, the standard error of subgroups of 4, or the ratio of the standard deviations of individual measurements to standard errors of subgroups. Simply put, it is a "fudge factor" applied to the measurements obtained from the idealized conditions of capability studies to improve the estimates of actual performance of the process or product in the real-world. Here's an

http://www.linkedin.com/groupItem?srchtype=discussedNews&trk=eml-anet_dig-b_...

15-10-2011

What is 1.5 sigma shift. What is the reasoning behind arriving at the 1.5 figure (why n... Page 2 of 3

article I wrote explaining it in greater detail http://www.qualitydigest.com/may01/html/sixsigma.html.

8 months ago Like

Follow G. Michael

G. Michael Smith Thanks Tom, When the question came up in the class of what the relevance of 1.5 was versus some other shift my answer was rather pragmatic. I told them it was an estimate only, and with 75 years of history behind it, it was a reasonable shift to use without going overboard. As you indicated a 'fudge factor', the class accepted this explanation and moved on to more interesting subjects. In fact if you read the AIAG manual on Capability it mentions the shift but not any type of real statistics behind it.
8 months ago Like

Follow Tom

Tom Pyzdek G.E.P. Box once discussed the 1.5-sigma shift, I think in the journal Quality Engineering, but I don't remember the specific article. He mentioned that practitioners had known for many years that in the real world things never worked out as planned and that they used various "adjustments" to try and get better predictions. The 1.5-sigma adjustment is overkill in many cases, but at least it's a standardized approach.
8 months ago Like

V.B. Manian Thank you Michael & Tom sir for your valuable inputs. Best, V.B.
Follow V.B. 7 months ago Like

Silverio Navarrete-Muela from my understanding the 1.6-sigma shift was a estimation given by motorola experience for long term (it was rounded later to 1,5 sigma). short or long term meaning should be other disscusion.
1 day ago Like Follow Silverio

Follow Ajmal

Ajmal Hayat 1.5 Sigma shift is a Long run normal (Natural) variation in each process. For short term you can acheive 6 sigma but in long run there should be a normal variation which distrub your 6 sigma score. For the first time this term was used by Motorola. Because for the first time they acheived 6 sigma.
1 day ago Like

Guy Plouffe Hell This is a good question. Fisrt, this concept is based on the assumption that the distribution of sample is normaly distributed. Second, we try to evaluation the average of the sample to a target of the population. This calculation sometime is called a Z-bench calculation. So, if we take repeatitive sample lots over the time, we can calculate the delat between the target and the samples averages. So the sum of these variations generate a long term variation. We can use a derivate formulas from an ANOVA (sum of the variances). By validating the samples with a normal probability test, we ensure that all the samples follow globally the Central limit theorem. To resume, the 1.5 shift is an estimated ratio to simplified the long term capability of a process. If you combine all the samples data together, the Cpk value will become the same as Ppk. By experience, in practice, the time perception must be associated to the number of cumulative data normally distributed. 1.5 sigma shift should become less bacause by using a control card, you will introduced some improvement actions on the process.
4 hours ago Like

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