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S.MassoudAmin
RochesterSignatureSeries,Tuesday,October21,2008
Copyright 2008 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.
Agendafortodaysworkshop/class:
Internationalizationofhightechnologyenterprises,R&D,andtechnologycommercializationtrendsin theglobalcontext Regional,Governmentandinstitutionalfactorsaffectingtechnologicalandbusinessdevelopment Intellectualpropertypolicy,law,managementandstrategy Technologicalproducts:
HistoricalEventsandTechnologicalChange:Continuumofscience fromIT/cybertobioandnano Difficultprocesstechnologies(canitbereverseengineered?) cantbeduplicatedfromendproduct Demographics:Suitableworkforce Multipleusegood(usablebyeveryone) Economicfactors,includingcapitalandworkforce Rarity,statusvalue,nonperishable,transportable Timelinestogettomarket,andremainsustainedinthemarket Productisknownfordecadesbeforewidespreaduse
Casestudies:InformationTechnology,Energy,biosciences/pharma,IPandotherselectedareas focusedonIndiaandChina Marketinganalyses Howdothemarketfactorslook? Infrastructureforpower/energyandtransportation Workforceretentionandescalatingsalaries Costfactorsvs.emphasisonexpertise Lessonslearned,timelines,surprises,threatsandopportunities Blockers,Accelerators,andtheNextSteps:Poassible innovationsinglobaltechnologyenvironment
Whatisyourleadershiprole?
Find,highlightandanalyzepart(s)oftheaboveopportunitiesthatyouor yourorganizations/companiesinMinnesotacanpotentiallyleadasnew businessdevelopmentorformingalliances.
EffectsofTechGlobalization
By2008,ChinaandIndiaaccountfor31%of globalR&Dstaff,upfrom19%in2004. 77%ofnewR&Dsitesplannedfornext3years willbebuiltinChinaorIndia. TheUSranks17th amongdevelopednationsin theproportionofcollegestudentsmajoringin scienceandengineering.
GlobalTechnologyDiffusion
June 2006
TheProblemofspeed
Knowledgecreatedinthe1990sisequaltoall knowledgecreatedin300,000yearsofhumanhistoryto thatdecade. NSAestimatesthattheinternetwillcarry647petabytes (billionmillionbytes)ofdataEACHDAY in2007.For comparison,theLibraryofCongressholdingsrepresent 0.02petabytes. Estimatedthatin2010,thecostofsynthesizingbacteria genomesizedDNAsequencewillbeequivalenttothe priceofacar.
1. The Cooperative Agreements and Technology Indicators database-Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (CATI-MERIT, funded in part by NSF), includes domestic and international technology agreements 2. In 2003 (latest data available) there were 695 new industrial technology alliances Worldwide. 3. These alliances involve mostly companies from the United States, Europe, and Japan, focusing to a large extent on biotechnology and information technology products, services, or techniques. 4. Other technology areas include advanced materials, aerospace and defense, automotive, and (non-biotechnology) chemicals.
Worldwideindustrialtechnologyalliancesandthose withatleastoneU.S.ownedcompany:19802003
ForeignownedR&DinUnitedStatesandU.S.owned R&Doverseas,byinvesting/hostregion
ForeignownedR&DinUnitedStatesandU.S.owned R&Doverseas,byinvesting/hostregion:2004orlater
MacroeconomicRationale
1. Endogenous growth models - theoretical support for domestic technology creation 2. Y = f(R, K, H), where: Y = GDP R = R&D K = physical capital H = human capital 3. Velocity and proportion of R, K, H: determinants of success
HOWDOWALMARTSSALESCOMPARE?
Sweden GDP WalMartStores TotalRevenue
(yearending1/31/05)
(Profits in billion $)
2005
1. ExxonMobil (United States) 2. Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands) 3. Gazprom (Russia) 4. General Electric (United States) 5. BP (United Kingdom) 6. Total (France) 7. HSBC Holdings (United Kingdom) 8. Chevron (United States) 9. PetroChina (China) 10. Microsoft (United States)
$ 40.61 $ 31.33 $ 23.304 $ 22.22 $ 20.61 $ 19.247 $ 19.14 $ 18.70 $ 18.21 $ 16.96
Source: Forbes, July 2008
InternationalMOTProjects2007and2008
Goals:
Contrastbetweenemerging& established(companies, countries,technology,foreign ownedvs.local,govt.vs. privatesector,etc.); ManagementofTechnology content; AnonU.S.International academicperspectiveonMOT; Abilitytodevelopacoherent intellectualstructurewithin thisregion/country(content, sequence,flow)
HeldinDelhiandBangalore
India
Parts of this presentation were developed for a graduate course at CDTLs Management of Technology (MOT) program for the International Management of Technology (MOT 8950). Considerable input and support from the students in the MOT classes of 2007 and 2007, as well as input from senior colleagues at Honeywell, Cummins Power, 3M, and organizations indicated in India is gratefully acknowledged.
Overview
Indianeconomy The4thlargest&2ndfastestgrowingeconomy intheworld IndiaGDPforFY2006wasapproxUSD570bn atconstantprices Amiddleclasscustomerbaseofover300millionpeople Morethan7%GDPgrowthforfourconsecutiveyears TargetedgrowthRate:89% Infrastructureakeybottleneck acauseforconcern? Expectedinvestmentininfrastructure:USD320billion
Transformation
Agricultural Society Industrial Society
Information Society
Knowledge Society
Knowledge products
Economic Growth
Societal Transformation
India
11/1/2008
25
survival
11/1/2008 26
Energy:Size
Generationcapacity 122GW; 590billionunitsproduced(1unit =1kWh) CAGRof4.6%inperiod2002 2006 India5th largestelectricity generationcapacityinworld Lowpercapitaconsumptionat 606units;lessthanhalfofChina T&Dnetworkof5.7million circuitkm 3rdlargestinthe world
10%
5% 3%
25%
Structure &Size
Urbanpopulation 300mn (30%ofnationalpopulation) Growth 5timesinthelast50years
UrbanAdministrationisdecentralizedtoUrbanlocalbodies
Source: Prof. K.C. Iyer, IIT-Delhi
Structure
Indiahasextensiveroadnetworkof3.3millionkm thelargestintheworld(roaddensity1kmpersq km) Highways/Expresswaysconstituteabout66,000km (2%ofallroads)andcarry40%ofroadtraffic GovernmentofIndia(GoI)spendsaboutUS$4 billionannuallyonroaddevelopment Roadscarryabout61%offreightand85%of passengertraffic
Source: Prof. K.C. Iyer, IIT-Delhi
Size
NationalHighways(NH)total lengthof65,569km NationalHighway DevelopmentProgramme (NHDP) Atotalinvestment ofUSD54bn upto2012 OngoingMajorProgrammes underNHDP
GoldenQuadrilateral(GQ)
IndiaBackground:CurrentITInfrastructure
Power
Presentshortage:8%,Peakdemandshortageis11.6% Regionalimbalances surplusinEast,deficitinNorth,South
Telecom
India'scurrentteledensity is17whichmeansthereare17main telephonelinesper100population. Currentlythereare190milliontelephoneconnectionsinthe country. Theurbantelephonesdensityisashighas3540wheremain businessesaresituated. Similarlythereare8.5millionInternetsubscribersand2.05 millionbroadbandusers.Thisgivesabout10.55millionInternet connections.Theactualinternetuserswillbefarmoreand restrictedbynumberofPCsalone
CurrentStatus:IndianTelecom
Teledensity:17 Fixed+Mobile:190m
Growth:50%perannum
Wireline:40.5mMarginaldecline Wireless:150m
Growth:50%
Background
Importanceofscienceandtechnologyfor meetingeconomicandsocialneedsofa country R&Dspend
USA: $276billion(2002) India: Rs 22,000crore (200405)
PercentofGDP
USA: 2.71%(2002) India: 0.78%(200405)
Source: Dr. Jyoti S. A. Bhat, DSIR
Background
PercentofGDP
Israel: Sweden: Finland: Korea: 2.65% 2.91% Japan: 2.98% 3.11% Singapore: 2.12% Germany: 2.53% China: 1.00% 1.23% Brazil: 0.87% 2000 4.43% 3.78% 3.37% 2002 5.11% 4.27% 3.52%
CountrywiseR&Dexpenditure(200002)
Country R&Dexp (US$mill) R&D%of GNP Percapita R&Dexp (US$)
IndustrialR&D (2000:US$mill)
1736
3964
BusinessWorld EconomicOutlook
Source: Business World, India, April, 2007
Global Companies are starting to take notice of India, Private Equity Investment growing
IndiasGlobalTransformation
Source: IIT Delhi Professor Sushil April 2007
Entrepreneurship
Human Sciences
Growth Minded
Culture
Transformation
Research
Technology
Ecology
Innovation
PartnerMaturityIndex
Perfect Partnership
Source: Shenoy - Philips Inc. April 2007
Innovation USA previously focus on all levels, to reduce costs outsourcing lower levels and focus on top two
Challenges increase as we proceed up Offshore Development the pyramid Indias has become highly efficient at the lower two levels and is trying to move up the value chain.
Potential barriers: University capacity and constraints. The need for Resource Center focus on advanced degrees in leadership and innovation Customer Needs and Wants
Select Competence in India Biosciences and IT should be the major thrust areas for Collaboration & BJubil ios ant Partnerships ys
Physical or Bio Sciences
Wipro
LG
Wipro AAL
IBM
Philips GE
ell yw ne Ho
Honeywell
LG AL A
GE
i rut i M a z uk Su
Manufacturing
Company Overview
Company Jubilant Phillips Leading BioinformaticsandData Warehousing ApplicationDevelopment MobilePhoneSoftware LinuxandJavabased Systems&Controls SalesForceAutomation (CRM)andLogistics(ERP) MedicalImaging&3D modeling ManufacturingProcess, HomegrownERP ITEnabledDevelopment, KnowledgeManagement Systems Opportunity(withMN) Collectpatientmedical history Partneringand CollaboratingwithMN companiesforimaging technology Security\Communications andmedicaldiagnostics PartnerwithMNbased SMEtoassessallinone system CollaboratewithMNbased medicalcompanies None StategovernmentIT outsourcingtoreducecost
Jubilant Biosys
IT
MEDICAL
UNIV
IndiaGovt MN Opportunities X X X Huge potential for bioinformatics data mining X Jubilant X Like MN, strong Biomedical Phillips X X landscape X Low Honeywell X cost bio/pharma R&D SAP X X GE X Maruti X Suzuki SAP Wipro X MN Opportunities LG X X Partnering with MN companies to enhance SMEX software IBM AAL X
Wipro
technology centers near US X X Universities to recruit top talent and X evaluate technical trends
X X X
X X
ITTiesBetweenMinnesotaandIndia:Goal ITTiesBetweenMinnesotaandIndia:
UsingIT,increasetheopportunityforthelower classtoattainbetteremployment
Increaseliteracyratethroughwideravailabilityof primaryeducation Developmoreopportunityforreputablesecondary education
ExposeopportunitiesforMN
Vs.
Challenges
InfrastructurelimitationstoprovidefullIT coveragetoIndia NeedfundingtocontinuetoexpandbothIT systemsandinfrastructure Highattritionandalimitedpoolofqualified candidates;largepoolunqualifiedcandidates CreatetheperceptionandrealitythatIndiais progressingintechnology attractionofmore technology StrictIndiangovernmentpolicywithrespectto education
TheITLaddersinIndia
Opportunities Wall of challenge Availability & affordability for the people Availability & affordability for the people Benefits
e-Government
Workaround for limited transportation infrastructure E-Gov helps expand IT availability to enable ladders 2 & 3 Increased literacy rate Help close the gap between classes Increased qualified labor pool (competitive advantage)
E-Learning (Primary)
Online Universities
StateofEducation
Primaryeducation
Privateisverystrong&expensive Governmentschoolsaremoreaffordable
SecondaryEducation
SelectSecondaryInstitutesareverystrong(IIT, IIM,IISC) Extremelydifficulttogainadmittanceintotop universities(IIT,IIM,IISC) Otheruniversitiesareeithernotaccreditedor notconsideredreputable
PercentageofPopulationLiterate
NeedsandOpportunitiesforITinIndia
The Relevant Pool for Product Firms is Smaller
Filter 1
100%
30-40%
10-20%
1years + Exp Tier A firms Tier A institutes
NeedsandOpportunitiesforITinIndia
NeedsandOpportunitiesforITinIndia
America 5%
$27 B - $32 B
~2 X
India 65%
2005 2010
IndiaITCapabilityEvolution
INNOVATION
Learn to Produce Learn to Produce Efficiently Learn to Improve Production Learn to Improve Products
Source: Forbes & Wield, 2002
ITTechnologyDevelopment
Innovation Innovation
Expertise Creative Thinking Skills
India H M M H L L
US H H M M H H
Creativity
Motivation
IndiaEducationPolicy
AccreditationforuniversitiesinIndiaarerequiredbylaw unlessitwascreatedthroughanactofParliament. Withoutaccreditation,thegovernmentnotes"thesefake institutionshavenolegalentitytocallthemselvesas University/Vishwvidyalaya andtoawarddegree whichare nottreatedasvalidforacademic/employmentpurposes."
TheUniversityGrantsCommissionAct1956 explains,"therightofconferring orgrantingdegreesshallbeexercisedonlybyaUniversityestablishedor incorporatedbyorunderaCentralActcarlo bontempo,oraStateAct,oran InstitutiondeemedtobeUniversityoraninstitutionspeciallyempoweredby anActoftheParliamenttoconferorgrantdegrees.Thus,anyinstitution whichhasnotbeencreatedbyanenactmentofParliamentoraState LegislatureorhasnotbeengrantedthestatusofaDeemedtobe University, isnotentitledtoawardadegree."
Takeaways
Elearning:expansionofcurrentmarketfor computerbasedprimaryeducation Largerlaborpoolcouldreducethewageinflation MakingeGovernmentaprioritywillincreasethe rateoftelecommunicationinfrastructure development DevelopstudentexchangeprogramswithIndia Institutestolearncreativethinkingstyles
ExecutiveSummary
InformationTechnology(IT)isnolonger theleadingIndustryinMinnesota MNinhouseITstilldrivessuccess MNleveragesIndiatosparkresurgence inIT IndiacanhelptoglobalizeMinnesota companies IndialeverageMNstrengths
Healthcare Education
LessonsLearned: India/MNSWOT
India Strengths
Youngmedianage(24.9yearsold) Englishspeaking Highlyeducated 8.5%GDPgrowth Infrastructure 15%employeeattritionrate Underutilizedtalentpool Fiveyearplans Politics BecometheWorldsSiliconValley HighForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)to developnewbusinesses Innovation PartnerwithMinnesota Universities/collegestotrainfuture Indianeducators. Risinglaborcosts Unstableneighbors IPR
Minnesota
StrongbaseofITProfessionalsinmajor MNcompanies(e.g.IBM,OracleRetail, BestBuy,Target,Accenture,3M,etc) ExcellentUniversities:Computer ScienceandTechnologyPrograms LowerenrollmentinComputerScience programsduetobustcycleofearly 2002 Limitedlocalmarket Saturated ColdWinters NotaleaderinITInnovation Partnerwithlocalhighschoolto encourageandprovideroadmapto UniversityITprograms Alignandpartnerwithother universities(IITAndIISc)topromote globalgrowthoftechnologies Marketfluctuationindemandbasedon economiccycles(boom/bust) HighoffshorecompetitionforITjobs
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
ThomsonReuters
Opportunities
Opportunity ITinbusiness Whatshouldbedone?
Indiacollaboratewith Minnesotacompaniesto manageinformation storageandretrieval.
Who?
ThomsonReuters andIndian companies
How?
When
Now
ITinhealthcare
Setup information repositoriesand thesystemsto accessand distribute. Createa Hospitals,clinics, Increasecollaboration communication VitalImages. betweendoctorsand systemfor patients. learning,sharing anddiagnosis. Indiancompanies Partneringto Collaboratetocreate createsoftware andDigitalRiver innovativewaysfor andmedia developingthe delivery. communication UsetheexperienceinITin IndiaCompanieslike: LeverageIT framework. MNandIndiatooutsource Wipro,TCS,Infosys, resources resourcestoeachotherto MNCompanieslike: through Analysts expandtheirmarkets. partnershipsand International,Geek exchange Squad programs.
13years
15years
15years
Page 59
RecommendedMoves
Threat Employees: Qualityand retention Whatshouldbedone?
IncreasetalentpoolinbothIndia andMinnesota Createattractiveemployment islandsawayfromcompetitive centerstoreduceattrition Createemployeecentric workplace(HCL) Improvepromotionandcreate challengingwork CompaniesmovetotierIIcities forITgrowth(Mysore) Formattestsbasedoncreativity andartisticability PromoteVCsandEntrepreneurs GovernmentandFDIenhance infrastructuretosustaingrowth SupplyChain, BroadBand/Wireless,Water, HealthControl
Who?
IT organizations
How?
When
SparkInnovation
Promote Creativity
13years
Infrastructure
110 years
Page 60
RecommendedMoves
Threator Opportunity RisingLaborCosts Whatshouldbe done?
Createhighervalueadd tokeepFDI
Who?
ITorganizations
How?
When
increaseinMobileusers
Innovation 310years s,R&D, Top Education Resources (ex: Business Provide byDesign) 310years data content basedon nicheusers 510years Expand intoAsia, Europe,NA andSA
Page 61
References
http://www.american.edu/initeb/zs2946a/Infrastructure.htm SAPpresentation Lopamudra BhattacharyaVP,Marketing&Communications http://education.nic.in/drft_ict_schools.asp ScienceandTechnologyMacroPerspectives ProfessorDKBanwet http://www.dot.gov.in/ OverviewofIndiasInfrastructure Dr.K.C.Iyer TelecominIndiapresentation S.BKhare http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_India#Distance_education http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2004/07/14/stories/2004071402590300. htm http://news.uns.purdue.edu/UNS/html3month/2007/070112RutledgeIndia.html
ExecutiveSummary
Indiahasasignificantamountofrenewable projects.Focusisneeded. OpportunitiesexistbetweenMNandIndiain thefollowingrenewableenergyarenas:
Wind Power Biomass(Biogas,Biofuels,) Hydropower Waterpurification/filtering/recycling Research Manufacturing
Observations
Multipletechnologiesrequired(noonesolution) Small,medium,andlargescaleinitiativesunderway Infrastructurechallenges&dependency NGOsinvolvedinmonitoringprogress FDIrequireslocalpartnership
India/MNRenewableEnergySWOT
India Strengths
Expandingtechnologybase Favorablepolicytowardsrenewables Growingtaxbase Largeworkforce Challenginginfrastructure Learyofoutsideinvolvement Lackofmeteringandregulation enforcement Lackofqualifiedpersonnelto maintainfacilities Increasepublicawareness HighForeignDirectInvestment(FDI) canhelpdevelopnewbusinesses Technologytransferopportunities Manufacturingandjobcreation Competitionforresources Increasinginflationrates Lackofstronginfrastructure Lackofsustainingecosystem
Minnesota
Statewidemandatesforincreasing useofrenewables Strongmovementtowardgreen energy Successfulhistoryofrenewable Ethanolcentric projects Limitedsolaropportunities Lackofculturalawareness
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
MinnesotaEnergySources
Limitedsolar Goodlocationfor wind,hydro,and biomassrenewable energies
IndiaRenewableEnergyPrograms
Gridinteractive
Biomasspower(agriculturewaste,manures) Windpower Smallhydro Cogeneration Urbanwastetoenergy Solarstreetlighting Solarwaterheating Windpumps Solarpumps Familysizedbiogasplants Solarcookers Homelighting Solarlantern SolarwaterHeating
Decentralized
Village
Minnesota Players
Company WindTurbineIndustries (PriorLake) NextGenPowerSystems (Pipestone) Donaldson (Bloomington) AerationSystems (Chaska) EnergyConservationProducts andServices (Duluth) RuralRenewableDevelopment Alliance RREAL(Backus) SolarSkies (Starbuck) IREE Univ.ofMN (St.Paul) WellsFargo (Minneapolis) Purpose JacobsWindTurbine Smallwindturbine Filtration Waterpurification Solarspaceandwater heating Solarspaceheating Solarwaterheating Opportunity(withIndia) IndiaMfg,Village electrification, IndiaMfg,Village electrification, Biomass/Water/Sewage filtration;CleanCoal Infrastructure/Localwater purification MfginIndia costarbitrage
Indian Players
Company Suzlon Purpose Opportunity(withMN)
5thleadingsupplierforwind turbines TataBPSolar Waterheating www.solarsv.com WaterSoftening&Filtering OVNBIOEnergyPrivateLtd BiomassGasifier (DevelopedbyIIS MoserBaerPhotoVoltaic Bangalore) PVcellmanufacturer Limited(MBPV) OrbEnergy
DelhiTranscoLtd. www.delhitransco.gov.in
MNemployerandleading windturbineblademfg Partnershipexistswith Pentair(MN).MfginGoa. BringtechnologytoUofM AndMNfarms ManufacturerofthinfilmPV idealforruralapplications bothinMNandelsewhere Workingtomakesolar Distributionchannelsand poweraffordableand servicecapabilitiesinplace accessibletocitizensofIndia totestandmarketMN technologiesinIndia StateTransmissionUtility Getonthelistofapproved Organizessolutions, mfgsandsuppliers suppliers,financing,rebates www.mnes.nic.in
InitiativeforRenewableEnergyandthe Environment(IREEattheUniversityofMN)
IREEhasfunded135renewableenergyrelatedprojects($19 million),involvingnearly400faculty,researchscientistsand studentsattheUniversityofMinnesota.
OpportunityExample:AnaerobicDigesters
Movefromsatisfyingindividual tovillagelevelneeds NBCNightlyNews: CraveBrothersFarm WI
Outputs:Power,Fertilizer,
OpportunityExample:SolarWaterHeating
Technologyskillsused:
Solarabsorption Heattransfer Fluidconditioningand filtering
ShorttermMoves
Recommendation
Expandeducational campaigns Localcommunityaction tobuildwindandsolar generators Researchprojectsfor renewableenergy Leveragemultinationals thathaveintegration/ implementation capability Technologytransfer
Who
NGOs,RREAL, Govt.,Universities Solarclubs India Windustry MN IREE,IISc,Govt.
What
Grassrootsprojects Buildandintegrate prototypesinrural communities infrastructure Strategictechnology development, governmentincentives Jointresearchand implementationprojects, memorandumof understandingbetween groups EnergyEfficiency,Fuels, RenewableElectricity, CleanCoal,Biogas processing,MFGprocess
How
Showandtellproducts, pilotprojects Kitsforeducationand demonstration PrivateR&DplusGovt. grants Exchangeprograms, technologytransfer
Honeywell/India Govt.
USandIndian organizations
LongtermMoves
Recommendation
Developrenewablecomponent manufacturingfacilitiesinIndia Partnermanufacturingopportunitieswith cogenerationtopromotebothmfgand renewables
Who
PrivateIndustry, Govt. Govt.,Industry
What
Solarcells,biomass components, Promotepartnershipsand collaboration
How
Taxincentives, partnerships
Setupindustry conferences,use governmentresources toseekpartnerships Createacentralize Createaonestopshop departmenttoassist forinvestorstoget investors informationforstarting renewablebusinesses Attractstartupsandsmall Raiseawarenessof mediumsizecompaniesto Indiasopportunities, invest,removeinvestment simplifyINS/Visa barriers;Maintenanceand requirements,setup freetradeagreement serviceproviders Continuemonitoringof Publish renewableprojects monthly/quarterly resultstoinformandto showprogress/regress Uselocalmaterials,local Promoteuniversityand talents,reducetariffs privateresearch Governmentincentives Carboncreditsin exchangeforfunding
OpenQuestions RenewableEnergy
Howdowemaketherenewablemarketattractivefor privateenterprises ensuringequipmentis maintained? Howdoyoudevelopthe incentivestochange?
Opportunities
Watersupply Sanitation/Wastedisposal Highways/Railroads/MassTransit Coldchain Powergeneration Educationsystem Tourisminfrastructure(hotels,airports)
Challenges
Manyaspectsofinfrastructureareunderdeveloped Population
Bottom2/3ofcountrysneedsnotbeingrecognized Bottom2/3ofcountryholdstremendousvotingpower Landacquisitionissues Culturalacceptanceofmediocrity Populationmaynotbeawareofimportanceofinfrastructure
Every$1investedinfrastructurereturns$5
Government
Bureaucracy FromaWesternperspective,needforamutualcultural understanding,includingdialogueontransparency, accountability,andpoliticalwilltodrivepositivechange
Opportunities
Technologies
Tourism
8Radissonhotels
Chennai,Delhi,Goa,Jalandhar,Noida, Varanasi,Calcutta,Kumarakom
Nolowercosthotels
ShoulddevelopTajExpresshotelchain specificallyforIndiatourismmarket
Tourism
Tourism
ShouldprovidedirectflightstoIndia
ContinentalprovidesNewarktoDelhi
Developtourismpackagesusingnew partnerships
Hotels,restaurants,entertainmentcenters(parks, music,museums)
Highway/RoadConstructioninIndia
* From the Report Financing of the NHDP Published by Government of India
National Highway Development Project (NHDP) ~ US$ 50 billion to be awarded on concessions/contracts by 2012* BOT (Build, Operate, and Transfer) Policy 100% FDI under the automatic route is permitted for all road development projects Technologies Prefabricated Bridge Elements and Systems Pavement Materials and Construction Technology (Asphalt, Concrete, Materials) Companies US: Bechtel, Flatiron (Flatiron-Mason Joint Venture is St. Anthony Falls (I-35W) Bridge in Minneapolis), Hoover Construction Company (Based in Minnesota) India:Hindustan Construction Company, Larsen & Toubro, GMR Group, GVK
Source:http://www.nhai.org/gqmain1.htm
WaterTreatment
Problems:disease,pollution, loomingwatershortages. Solutions:conservationand stewardship,municipalwater treatment,industrialwaste treatment. Minnesotatechnologypartners:
Membraneandcartridgefiltersand systems Ionexchangeresins Processchemicals
EcosanPhilosophy
Sanitation
Technologies& Capabilities Membranetechnology forwaterpurification Biogasreactors WastewaterTreatment
Aeration
Design&implementation services
UofMCollaborationCenter
SolutionsforIndia
Arenotimportedwesternproducts!! 3Msapproachtolocalization ofproducts
And
Systemsapproachsolutions Notjusttheairport;buttheroadstosupportthe airport.
Recommendations
1st priority Sanitation(Wastedisposal,WaterPurification)
Representthetrueneed Representthehealthimpactofnothavingadequatesanitation Makeitintheinterestofprivateindustry
2nd priority
Transportationinfrastructure Infrastructureexpansion Maintenanceincentive
Allotherpriorities
Systemapproachtoproblemsolving(notjusttheairport,buttheroadto theairport) Irrigation&Agricultureautomation Technologytoridsystemofmiddlemen Coldchaintofixfoodspoilageissue(Unacceptablelossof40%harvest) Lowenvironmentalimpactpowergeneration
Moves ShortTerm
PublicEducationCampaign Government
Identificationofcostsofsubstandardsanitation(PSA GiveAHoot!) Makeiteveryonespriority
LowCost,ImmediateWasteInfrastructureActions PPP
Centralizedwasteandrecyclingcenters(transferstations) Expansionofecosanconcepts(wastebins,compostinglatrines) Enforcementofthenewbehavioralnorms
IncentivestoBiggerBusiness Government/PrivateIndustry
Makeitattractivetotakeonbiginfrastructuredevelopment Taxcreditsforsociallyresponsibleactions Businessconsortiatofundbeneficialinvestments(identificationofthe costsoflackinginfrastructure;health,time,lossofopportunity)
EngageTheIndividual Government
Garbagecollectionincentive Recyclingincentive Urbanizedworkguarantees
Moves LongTerm
LargeWaste&SanitationInfrastructures PPP
Creationof;orcoordinationwithempoweredplanningauthority Landfill,incineration,bioreprocessingofwasteinfrastructure Wastewatertreatmentinfrastructure Coupledincentivesforsociallyresponsibleactions
UrbanCongestionSolutions PPP
SimilarconcepttowhatLondonisimplementing(Mumbai) Requiredmeteringsolutions(GPS,RFID)innewcars,motorcycles,other
ConsumptionBasedRevenueGeneration PPP
Consolidationofexistingtollroadstructures Increasedtollroadpenetration Othermodelstosupportlongtermdevelopmentandmaintenance
MinnesotaSuggestions
Filtrationtechnologyforwaterpurity(3M, DonaldsonCompany) UniversityofMinnesotaCivilEngineering Dept. OsmonicWaterTreatmentPlant(GE) MinneapolisWasteIncinerationPlant ColdChainTechnology(ThermoKing) VideoSurveillance/Monitoring(Honeywell, Seagate)
India/MinnesotaSWOT
India Strengths
Lotsofinfrastructureopportunities Increasingfederalrevenues Someacknowledgementofissue Over$500Bprogrammed Bottom2/3ofcountrysneedsnot beingrecognized(notprofitable) Bureaucracy,greatchangeinertia Tremendousopportunities HighForeignDirectInvestment (FDI)canhelpdevelopnew businesses 2/3ofcountryholdtremendous powertoopposechange(poor)
Minnesota
Educationalbackground Large,profitdrivenMNC Welldefinedfinancialmarkets TrueunderstandingofFDI limitations Trueoperationalbusiness environment Partnerwithlocalhighschoolto encourageandprovideroadmapto UniversityITprograms Alignandpartnerwithother universities(IITAndIISc)to promoteglobalgrowthof technologies
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
ShorttermMoves
Recommendation
Educationcampaign
Who
Gov
Whatand When
How
Cost
Marketing/ Identificationofcosts ofnotchangingcurrent Advertising behaviors Implementationoftax relief/creditsforsocial infrastructure development Recyclingincentive, Incentives
Gov
Payment structure development, urbanwork guarantee Tactical distributionof systemsin urban environments
Page 95
Simple,lowcostwastefixes
LongtermMoves
Recommendation
Transitiontoconsumption basedfundingmechanisms Longtermwastesolutions
Who
Infrastructu reowners Public Private Partnership Public Private Partnership
WhatandWhen
Singletollroadsystem Landfilldevelopment; Incinerationmethods,Boilogical reprocessing;recycling RFID,GPS,othertechnology basedcongestioncharging project
How Cost
Urbantollsystemtorelieve congestions
Page 96
Questions/Remaining
Whatotherinformationandconceptsareavailable undertheecosanumbrella? Agricultureconcerns
Whydont70%offarmershaveirrigation Isitatechnologyproblem Isitawaterproblem
Overview
1. Rural Sector and Agriculture in India a. History and insights b. The Indian agricultural industry today c. Comparison with the U.S. 2. Major Players a. Government support (e.g. National Agriculture Policy) b. Foreign investments & global market 3. Enablers, Barriers to ToT in Rural Sector a. SWOT analysis: 1) Indian Perspective 2) Minnesota Perspective 4. ToT Scenarios a. Change in raw material (e.g. UoM gene plasma) b. Change in farming process (e.g. Cargill contract farming) 5. IMTP Lessons Learned and Recommended Moves
Contract Farming Ventures in India The government of Indias National Agriculture Policy envisages that Private sector participation will be promoted through contract farming and land leasing arrangements to allow accelerated technology transfer, capital inflow and assured market for crop production, especially of oilseeds, cotton and horticultural crops.
W
Deficientinfrastructure Waterquality Oldtechnologies Ruraltechnologydelivery WeakGovernmentpolicies NoGovernmentsubsidiaries Localcorruption Education
O
SuccessfulatTT Agriculturereform Farmingprocessmodernization Businessopportunities(e.g.ediblevaccine) Improvedyields,reducedwaste Higherfarmincome Improvedanimalnutrition Globalization,Intlmarket ImprovementinInfrastructure includingelectricity, rail,roadsandports
T
Wideninggapbetweenhightechandruraltechnology delivery SubstantialpovertyinruralsectorweakenGovernment ForeigninvestmentsgoingtoChina
W
Dependentonlocalinfrastructure Indianbureaucracy&policies Nocentralpointofcontact Offsetrequirements TTmorewelcomefromacademia CargillsbadpastexperiencewithIndianmarket
O
Globalmarket Contractfarming Retailcommoditymarket StrengthenlinkbetweenUoM andIIT GovernorPawlentylookingatbusinessopportunities inIndia
T
Successfulmodelinanothercountrymightnotsuit India Unabletoconvincefederaland/orlocalGov't Pushbackfromruralpopulation Activists:Cargillinthenameofcontractfarmingis exploitingIndianfarmers IPnotprotected(e.g.engineeredseedssoldto competition) Patentingoflifeforms(e.g.GMOs)rejectedinthe marketplace Fragmentedsalesfornationallevelplayer
Lessons Learned
1. Why Cargills business model did not fit in India! a. There were no tangible benefits to the community b. There was no equitable win-win solution c. The cultural dimension was more important than the business model d. Business model did not include technology transfer 2. The value creation should be obvious to customers a. Local vs. national-level player (use local players to develop trust) b. McDonalds adage think global, act local c. Rural farmers should receive financial benefits d. Educational opportunity 3. Overcome barriers to direct foreign investments a. Politically correct strategy b. Join ventures with Indian companies c. Partnership with academia (e.g. PepsiCos partnership with Punjab Agricultural University)
Recommended Moves
India
1. Reduce trade barriers, foreign exchange, restriction and strive for economic reform red tape will be difficult to overcome in short-term 2. Improve communication, transport, storage, distribution and agricultural support services 3. Improve the fragmented supply chain currently Indias transportation costs are on average 20-30% higher than other countries 4. Improve product quality standards and production standards 5. Reduce gap of organized versus unorganized employment 1. Through educational improvements 2. Continue infrastructure improvements 6. Create an integrated and competitive domestic market
Recommended Moves
Cargill 1. Investment in educational programs for rural communities i.e. satellite educational systems / web-based e-learning systems 2. Promote value-added benefits to farmers and cooperatives a. Grain Storage and Grain Handling Cargill roots b. Improved quality, crop yields and application benefits c. Improved Animal nutrition Cargill Feeds d. Risk management and farming consultancy education of new farming practices
MedicalIndustry
OpportunitiesforIndiaMinnesotaCollaborations
Overview
Personalexperience SWOTAnalysis IndiaStrengths/Barriers BusinessrequirementsforIndia OpportunitiesAssessment Minnesotaopportunities MinnesotaandIndiaMedicalIndustries MarketAccess/Partnerships MinnesotaActions
ExecutiveSummary
SeveralpotentialnewmarketsforMinnesota medicaldevicecompanies Numerousopportunitiesforindustrialand academiccollaborations(e.g.device drug combination). Secondsourceforskilledmanufacturinglaborfor specificmedicalproducts(e.g.vascularproducts). Biggestbarrierstoenterwillbecost,access,and regulatoryapproval.
IndiaHealthcare: PersonalExperience
SWOTAnalysis
India
Costcompetitiveadvantage Highlyeducatedworkforce Highsavingsrateoffsetneedforinsurance Manufacturingcapabilities laborintensive assembly Mobile workforce enables innovation English speaking, call-center capabilities, collaborative development experience Costpressures JobcompetitionwithITsector Intellectualpropertylaws Lackofstronginfrastructure PartnershipwithMinnesotauniversities HighForeignDirectInvestment(FDI)canhelp developnewbusinesses Medical tourism Acquisition of Minnesota start-ups Risinglaborrate China
Minnesota
Strongmedicaldevicecompanybase:Medtronic, St.Jude,BostonScientific Globalregulatoryexpertise Laboratorytesting BeckmanCoulter
Strengths
Weakness
Opportunities
PartnershipwithIndianuniversities Partner with Indian medical device companies New health delivery business models
Threats
Global competition Restrictive FDA rules for new treatments Profit pressures for large companies Loss of IP
IndiaStrengths
IndiaBarriers
FDI Bureaucracy Supplychain Businessmethods Policyandlegalissues Accessandexposure
Requirementsfor SuccessinIndia
Localmanagement Costconsciousproducts Highvolume Shortprocessloops Lowtechsolutions(e.g.Aravindeyecare,Jaipur foot)
OpportunitiesAssessment
TheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)estimates60MIndians suffercardiacheartdisorders,andthisislikelytoreach100M by 2011. 2MIndiansdieofsuddencardiacarrest(SCA)everyyear. Only1%ofthepopulationofIndiahasaccesstoUStype therapiesthatuseadvancedmedicaldeviceslikepacemakers.
MinnesotaOpportunities
Newmarketsformedicaldevices Device drugcollaborations Secondsourceforskilledmanufacturing labor(e.g.,vascularproducts) University&researchcollaborations Clinicalstudiesandstudycenters WesternMedicinemeetstraditional Ayurvedic(holistic)medicine
MinnesotaMedicalIndustry
IndianMedicalIndustry
IndiaMarketAccess
CentralDrugsStandardControl Organization(CDSCO)andIndian MinistryofHealth
Providesguidelinesforimport,registration, manufacture,andsalesofmedicaldevices
(latestrevisionJune2005)
IndiaMedicalDevicePartners
ShreePacetronix
Seventhlargestmanufacturerofpacemakersintheworldandhas 35%marketshareinIndia. Aimtolaunchadefribillatorfor~$5000USD.
Medived
IncollaborationwithCCCMedicalDevices(Uruguay) Brandnew,worldclassmanufacturingfacilityinBangaloreIndiafor advancedimplantablemedicaldevices,
PotentialIndiaStatePartners
Pharmaceuticals:
Dr.Reddys:AndhraPradesh Jubilant:UttarPradesh Ranbaxy:Haryana
Medicaldevices
ShreePacetronix:MadhyaPradesh Medived:Karnataka
MinnesotaActions
Company
Leading
Opportunity
CreatepartnershipsandutilizeIndiasstrengthin skilledlaborandmanufacturingforsurgicaland vascularproducts. Createclinicalstudypartnerships Evaluatelongtermimplantabledeviceopportunities (ShreePacetronix) Drugcollaborationfordevices Formpartnershiptoleveragegenericsdistribution andregulatoryknowledge Createpartnershiptosellheartrepairproducts EstablishrelationshiptobringInsorb surgical suturestomarket
Medtronic
Medicaldevices,heartvalves, spinalproducts
BiotechMarket DynamicandGrowing
Market size (2004-05) US $1.9B
Biopharma 56%
US $137M 26%
US $5B annual revenues 2010 1 million skilled jobs 10% of global industry
Source: Confederation of Indian Industry (CII)
DiagnosticsSegmentFactors
Healthcarerepresents5.1%ofGDP Populationtogrowfrom1to1.6billionby2012
14%coveredbyhealthcare(prepayments) 64%payoutofpocket
30,000labsserving11.25millionpatients/day 25%annualgrowth
DiagnosticSegmentAreasofFocus
InVitroDiagnostics(IVD)
Rs.6.75billion US$147M
40%equipment 60%reagents
IVD Market in India*
DiagnosticSegmentIssues(technology)
Intellectualproperty
Enforcementisdifficult;litigationisslow Before2005,90%biotechproductswereunpatentable Patentapplicationaloneobtains51/2yearsofprotection andservestoblockcompetition Lessthan5%ofpatentapplicationsareactuallygranted Insufficientresourcehasbeenaprocessbottleneck
Developmentcapabilities
Preferenceforproductsovertechnologies
Patents
Applications
12000 10000 8000 Sum of Biotech 6000 4000 2000 0 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 Sum of Drug Sum of Chemical
Approvals
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 Sum of Biotech Sum of Drug Sum of Chemical
processes.
DiagnosticSegmentIssues(social)
Diversepopulation
Reachingbeyondmajorurbanareastoruralneeds Noaverage Indianconsumer segmentthemarket Lackofprepaidhealthcarewillrequiredirecttoconsumer marketinganddistribution Percapitaincomeisverylowandproductofferingsmustbe pricedaccordingly
Socialimplications
AnyonelicensingpatentstoIndiamustconsiderthesocial implications(e.g.GEUltrasounds)
IndiaontheBiotechRadar
Indiasshareintheglobal biotechmarketis currentlyabout2%.
$ billion
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
DistributionofIndianBiotechCompanies
1% 12% 8% 24%
Major Players
Agro-biotech Bioremediation Biopesticides Biodiagnostics Enzymes
Monsanto
4% 3% 6% 5% 18% 6% 4% 9%
Biocon
ExampleR&DExpenditures
COMPANY Workhardt Zydus Cadila TorrentPharma Ranbaxy Biocon Dr.ReddysLabs Cipla SunPharma R&D/REVENUE(%) 10.5 7.5 6.4 6.0 5.0 4.4 4.0 4.0 LINEOFRESEARCH Genometechnology Genometechnology Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals Enzymes Therapeuticproteins Vaccines Pharmaceuticals
Average
5.9
Sources: A Report on the Indian Biotechnology Market Mindbranch.com & Biotech India 2003
GovernmentSupportviaResearchAllocation
AGENCY UniversityGrantsCommission(UGC) IndianCouncilofAgricultureResearch(ICAR) CouncilofScientificandIndustrialResearch(CSIR) DepartmentofScienceandTechnology(DST) IndianCouncilofMedicalResearch(ICMR) DepartmentofBiotechnology(DBT) DepartmentofScientificandIndustrialResearch(DSIR) Total budgetary allocations ~ Rs. 50 billion BUDGETARY ALLOCATION* (RS.CRORE) 1,407 1,399 912 779 147 136 58
Source: Status and Development of Biotechnology in India: An Analytical Overview Sachin Chaturvedi RIS Discussion Paper
OpportunityCategories
TechnologyTransfer(licensingrevenue) OutsourcingBusinessProcesses(costsavings) LeveragingR&Dexpertise(extendinginnovation) EnteringgrowingIndianMarket(globalfootprint)
IndianCompanyObservations
GE
Autobone,Reachindiagnosticimaging,Surgicalnavigation Initiallyunsuccessful;refocusedonpeopleinIndiauntilreadytogo backtomarkets
Phillips
Imagingtechnologies(e.g.MRI) Valuechainstrategy
JubilantBiosys
Strengthsinreverseengineering Focusonsupportservicesbusinessmodelanddrugdevelopment(not marketing)
CaseStudy:GE
GEHealthcare
US$17Bcompany EnteredIndiain1970 InvestedUS$100MinIndia Sourced15%ofitsproductsinIndia(2x2002)
Indianotviewedascostarbitragebutfortalentpool Threediagnosticimagingproductstobeintroducedin2007
Autobone,Reachindiagnosticimaging,Surgicalnavigation
CollaborationwithManipal HospitalsinBangalore
GEsGlobalClinicalStudiesProgram SupportsvisionofEarlyHealth usingdiagnosticimaging Benefitlocalpatientsthroughincreasedaccess
CaseStudy:InvernessInnovations
InvernessInnovations
US$552Mcompany EnteredIndiain2007 AcquiredtwoIndiancompanies(distributionandassembly) $4Mpurchaseprice+bonusifsuccessfulafteroneyear
Collaborationcombinesinnovationandlocaldistribution
SpectralDiagnosticsPrivateLimited distribution SourceDiagnosticsPrivateLimited assemblyandpackaging
Rapidprofessionaltesting
Indiapopulationneedstestingforbloodbornepathogens HIV,Hepatitis,Malaria,DengueFever,andTuberculosis
OpportunityModel
Developed Markets Value Chain Partner R&D Outsourcing Business Processes/Services Technology Acquisition
MN Companies
KeyQuestions
HowdoestheIndianmarketcomparetoother developingmarketsformedicaldiagnostics(e.g. China,Brazil,others?) WhatarethetrendsandpotentialvalueforIP applications? Whatisthepotentialfordisruptiveinnovations tospillovertodevelopedmarkets?
Resources
TechnologyTransfer TheDepartmentofBiotechnology http://www.dbtindia.gov.in/ trackstechnology transferinIndia TheAsiaandPacificCenterforTechnologyTransfer (APCTT)http://www.apctt.org/ facilitatestechnology transferandbringsbuyersandsellerstogether Networking TheAmericanChamberofCommerceinIndia (AMCHAM India)http://www.amchamindia.com can helpwithunderstandingbusinessconditionsand networking
Resources
U.S.CommercialService:GoldKeyService
AmericanCenter,24Kasturba GandhiMarg NewDelhi110001 India Tel:911123316841,Fax:911123315172
DirectorateGeneralofHealthService
MinistryofHealth Nirman Bhawan NewDelhi Phone:911123018863
ConfederationofIndianIndustry
LodiRoad NewDelhi Phone:911124629994
USA
Selfreliant HighTech StrongIndustrialbasethatis commerciallyoperated ~85%SystemsContracting Unwillingtotransfertechnology internationally MostUScompaniesdonthavean effectiveGlobalStrategy(Madeinthe USA) USEmbassydoesnotcurrentlyhavea mechanismforUSDefensecontractors tosourcesuppliesfromIndia AlignwithIndiaforaNATO like commonoperatingspecification,i.e., commoncalibers,interchangeable systems,etc. China Redtape(againbothways)
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
Business Scenario
The United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act
Today, President Bush Signed The United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act. This Act will strengthen the partnership between the world's two largest democracies and help our countries meet the energy and security challenges of the 21st century. This Act Is An Important Step That Will Help Allow Us To Share Civilian Nuclear Technology And Bring India's Civilian Nuclear Program Under The Safeguards Of The International Atomic Energy Agency. On his visit to India earlier this year, President Bush reached an historic agreement with Indian Prime Minister Singh, under which the United States and India committed to take a series of steps to make nuclear cooperation a reality. The bill the President signed today is one of the most important of these steps. Nuclear cooperation will help the people of India produce more of their energy from clean, safe civilian nuclear power, help both our economies grow, and make America more secure. America And India Are United By Deeply Held Values. Our two great democracies are allies in the War on Terror, partners in global trade, and stewards of our environment. India is a democracy that protects the rule of law and is accountable to its people, and an open society that defends freedom of speech and freedom of religion.
The United States And India Are Working Together To Expand Economic Opportunities In Both Our Countries. India's economy has more than doubled in size since 1991, and it is one of the fastestgrowing markets for American exports. This trade is creating new jobs in America and raising the standard of living for millions throughout India.
America will continue to work with India to promote free and fair trade and fuel economic growth in both countries.
Opportunities
PartnershipwithIndianCarriers AdditionalMROfacilityinIndia PurchaseSARASwhenavailable NextGenRegionalCarrierunder developmentbyHAL CommercialSensorssalesand sourceofsupply AlreadyinIndia partnerwithHAL CommercialAvionics CodevelopmentwithISROon Spacesystems HANSAandSARASLicensing PartnershipwithHAL Filters,materials,etc. GlobalR&DFacilityinIndia
Opportunities
Buyammunition CodevelopSpacesystems Sellcannons SubcomponentSourceofSupply Sellsensors CodevelopwithIndianGovt.Labs Subsystemsfor3majorLMT pursuits AlreadyalargepresenceinIndia ExportversionofJDAM SpiderandMatrix inKashmir CoproductioninIndia ATVsalestoIndia SubcomponentSourceofSupply Throwbot collaboration
Maintenance,Repair,andOverhaul(MRO)Market India
Year 2004 2010 2020 Annualgrowthrate
Asia
JointVentures AKeytoSuccess
Jointventures/partnershipsbetweenkeyMROplayersacrossOEM,third parties,etc. Provideanoptimalroutetofulfillingkeyfactorswithrespectto:
Extendingserviceportfolio Broadeninggloballogistics Globalmanagementinfrastructures Leveragingexistingmarketingassetpool,existingcustomers Leverageanacknowledgedstrongbrandpositioning
ROMEstimateforEstablishingIndependentMROFacilityinIndia
AirframeMRO: EngineMRO: ComponentMRO: $60 80MUS $80 100MUS $15 20MUS
Another Observation
USA: US State Department has stated they are willing to grant more Technical Assistance Agreements (TAAs) and Manufacturing License Agreements (MLAs) in India. Integrating Indian private sector companies into the global supply chain of US defense manufacturers, combined with co-production, will help remove insecurity about the reliability of US defense supplies. (US India CEO Forum)
Useful Resources for Doing Business in India http://mod.nic.in/dpm/welcome.html Indias MOD procurement publications
Mandatory reading
http://www.drdo.org/labs/dls/drde/tech.shtml List of technologies spun off to commercial sector http://www.drdo.org/labs/dic/index.shtml International collaboration with DRDO
Sources
Interviews with multiple State Department and DOD personnel at US Embassy, Dehli US India Strategic Partnership, US India CEO Forum, March 2006 Report Interview with Member of Indias Ordnance Factory Board
IT SiteVisits Infosys,Wipro,SAP,Google
Cultureofthe4organizations CMM NewlevelofMaturity Commonalityobservationsinthese4companies Captivesvs.Outsourcing ITInfrastructure
IT SiteVisits Infosys,Wipro,SAP,Google
Questionstoask Longtermsustenanceoftheoutsourcingmodel LaborShortage Howisitbeingaddressed? Attractandretainbestemployees Newthinkinginstaffmanagement MeasurementandMetrics TurnaroundtimeforProjects WhataboutInsourcing?
OtherSectors
Growthinothersectors Technology Pharmaceuticals Healthcare Banking Hospitality
MacroEconomics
BuyingPowerofthemiddleclass Trickledowneconomics RealEstateMarket ExclusiveProducts LifeStyle
InnovationCentersandR&DinIndia: ConnectingtoMinnesota
ProjectFocus
This project reviews and analyzes opportunities and challenges inherent in R&D and Innovation Centers in India. The project will explore collaborative opportunities for Minnesota companies and educational institutions to grow globally.
ExecutiveSummary
TheR&DProsforIndiaincludeaccessto: deeptalent lowcosts wideecosystem vastmarkets Englishiscommonlanguage attractivetoexpatriates
ExecutiveSummary
TheR&DConsforIndiainclude: HigherEducationIssues: ToofewEngineeringPh.D.sinIndia Inadequateincentivestructureforthefaculty Innovationeducationgap PrivateSectorIssues: employeeattrition risingcompensationcosts IP Dependenceonexpatriatetalent. PoorInfrastructure GovernmentPolicyIssues: IndiasR&Dexpenditurerate,at0.8%ofGDP,islow. Andyet,IndiaisnowthepreferreddestinationfornewmultinationalR&D spending.
WhyR&DinIndia?CostSavingsisNOW
Cost
R&Dcostsavingsmaybeintherange15% 28%.
Salaries,constructioncostslow.
However,McKinseyreportsthat,by2015,totalcompensation forU.S.andIndiaresearchscientistswillberoughlyequal.
Salaries for Engineers (Annual Average USD, 2004)
80000 70000 60000 Nation 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 US China Salary Russia India 25690 15120 13580 70000
WhyR&DinIndia?Talent
Indiahasconsiderableeducated,experienced yetyoungtalent.
Indiangraduatesareworldclass. StudiesshowthatIndiangraduatestendtoworklongerhours thantheirGermanandU.S.peers.
WhyR&DinIndia?LocalMarketAccess
LocalMarketAccess
Indiaisoneoftheworldspremiersoftwareclusters.
India,isasoftwaredevelopmentmarket, whichinforms,energizes,and,for itspart,needs softwareR&D.
Indiaisalsoavastmarketintraditionaltermsbenefitsfrom physicalproximity.
300millionstrongmiddleclasscontinuestogrow.(8millioncellphoneusers beingaddedeverymonth.)
IndiaUniversities:LimitedSupply?
Physicalinfrastructure
7IITs,whichhaveabout15,500undergraduateand12,000graduatestudents. 4newIITswererecentlyproposedtoremedythegap.Targetcompletionduring this11th 5yearplan. EstimatesshowIndiahadabout184,000engineeringgradsin2004,ofwhich about6,000werePh.Ds.
IndiadoesnotturnoutenoughPh.Dstomeetmarketdemand
DemandofPh.Dsisanewphenomena. Theincentive,tostudents,isfartoosmalltocontinuetoaPh.D.becausegood jobsreadilyawaitundergraduateMasterdegreegraduates. OutputofIndian Ph.D.isnotmeetingtodaysneeds.
Faculty
Professorscandoconsultingbuthavetoshareupto40%ofthefee. Concentrateonteaching;thetimedevotedtoresearchoftenlags international standards.
Culture:CreativityGap?
Indiandispositiontowardconformity,lackofindividualism andaversiontochangeineducationsystem. Indiandispositiontowardfearoffailure.MostR&D projectsfail. Limitedinnovativetraditions;onlyinprivatesector. Organizationalandculturalrelianceonhierarchyand procedurallearning. Challengesandopenquestions: CanIndiadotrulydisruptiveR&D? CanIndianR&Dexpandpastproductdevelopment? Howquicklycancultureevolve;whatincentivesexist?
PrivateSectorR&DEfforts
AMcKinseysurveyof5,500seniorcorporateleadersoflarge corporationsworldwide(eachwithrevenuesofatleastonebillion dollars)revealedthatIndiaisthepreferreddestinationfor investmentsinR&D. R&DisconductedinIndiathrough: inhouseR&D collaborationwithothercompanies contracts Theprivatesectorhascontributedsignificantlytoasharprisein patentfilingsfromIndiainthe2000s. IndiahasadoptedtheIPregimeformulatedbytheWorldTrade Organization(WTO)in2005.
IndiaGovernment:LimitedSupport
AlthoughIndiaspercentageR&Drankingislow,spending levelsareindeedsubstantialonapurchasingpowerparity (PPP)basis. PPPadjusted,Indiaranks7th.
Gov. R&D Expenditure by Scientific Agency (2004)
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
tu r icu l
95 59 38 25 13 5 29 28 7 68
USD (millions)
h.
gy
Sp ac e
Te ch
rc h
Re se ar ch
m at io n
Re s
es ea
&
Bi ot ec h
Ag r
At om ic
fS ci .
al
an
In fo r
ep t. o
O ce
Agency
In d
us t ri al
ed ic
ef en se
er g
Te c
rc h
no lo
En
ea
IndiaGovernment:LimitedSupport(Continues)
ThegovernmentsroleinS&Thasgraduallyshifted towardsagreateremphasisofcommerciallyorientedR&D andprivatepublicsectorpartnerships.
Country
Population Researchers in R&D Expenditure on IT Expenditures IT Expenditures (Millions) (people per million) R&D (% of GDP) (% of GDP) (per capita USD) 2004 1,080 12,926 294 1996-2002 120 633 4,526 1996-2002 0.85 1.23 2.66 2004 3.8 4.4 9.0 2004 24 66 3595
ChallengesofInnovationandR&DinIndia
Theattritionrateishigh 15% 20%.
Google,forexample,mightoffer4xthesalarytolureawaya Ph.D.becausetheyonlyneedfourresourcestostartwith. R&Dstaffingcanbedependentonthetechnologydiaspora. IBMCEOSamuelJ.Palmisano: Thebiggestissuesfrousare: Howdoyouretainthem?Howdoyoudevelopthem?Howdo youmoveworktothemormovethemtowork?
SWOTAnalysis
India
SizeofIndiaeconomyandgrowthrate(8.5%) Talentcapital,including theeducateddiaspora. Youngpopulation Flexibilityandadaptability Reversebraindrain(thereturningdiaspora) Englishlanguageskills Affordabletuition InsufficientnumbersofEngineeringPh.D.sand MastersinIndia Infrastructure,watershortage Highattritionrateofemployees Highereducationsystemnotadequatelybroad Lowfacultysalaryandcoinnovationincentives WeakcourtprotectionforIP R&Dsolutionsdrivemanufacturingvalue Entrepreneurialoffshootsfromacademia Growingmiddleclass Virtualuniversities
Minnesota
Excellentuniversityeducation,research,and internationalprograms. Onlinetraining Manufacturingandsupplychainspecialization Diversifiedeconomy healthcare,insurance, technology,biomedical,etc. Higherlaborcosts. Lowculturalawarenessanddiversity LowinterestandenrollmentinS&T Approachingbabyboomerretirement knowledge loss
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Affluentsocietydemandingdifferentiatedproducts GrowgloballybyleveragingR&Dexperience
Threats
Reversebraindrainofinternationalgraduates USrecession
CompanyOverview
Company IBM IndiaResearchLab Leading R&Dinservicesand analytics Opportunity(withMN) Scheduling/optimizing infrastructurerepairs RelationshipwithUofM
3MInnovationCenter
ProductDevelopment Collaborationonproduct Flexibilitytoadapttolocal development markets Knowledgetransfer LinuxandJavabased Systems&Controls SMESolutions Business bydemand,Mobile solutionsforERP ITandBiotech Academiaindustry collaboration Security\Communications andmedicaldiagnostics PartnerwithUofM computersciencesandIT departments UMNofficefortechnology commercialization
InnovationCenter(SID)at IISC
CompanyOverview OurFindings
Group2visitedIBMinDelhiandBangalore,3M inBangaloreandIISCcenterforinnovationat Bangalore. 3Mnoteshugegrowthpotentialbylocalizing productsforthevastIndianmarket. NeedtopackageproductsbasedonIndian requirements/useisimperative. R&DisnotthetraditionalkindliketheU.S.,but treatedfromanIndianperspective.
Recommendations
Recommendation
MinnCompany: Leverageorgrowyourbrand.
Who
Marketing
WhatandWhen
StartassoonasyouenterIndia. Makesureyoustandbehind yourcorporateethicsand policies. StartbeforeyoumovetoIndia andmakesureitisleveraged withnewinitiatives.
How
Market,make productslocalizedto helpsellthebrand KnowledgeMgmt System
IT,R&D,CIO
Leverageexperiencedscientists KnowledgeMgmt system,BrownBag asSMEsandmorejunior sessions scientistsfornewideasand challengingthenorm. Needtobeestablishedbefore startinginIndia.Compareto othercompaniesfor competitivepotential.
Knowthecultureto adjustbenefits effectively:free lunch,busingtoand fromwork, competitivesalaries
Recommendations
Recommendation
MinnCompany: Capitalizeonongoingtrendofreverse braindrain.
Who
HR,Recruiting dept,Head Hunters
WhatandWhen
Startbeforeneeded.
How
Advertisement, wordofmouth and recommendation s,leverage universities. Establish partnershipsto ensure collaboration. Training programs, immersion. Ensurelanguage andculture trainingare provided.
Partners
Ongoing
HR
Recommendations
Recommendation
IndianGovt/EducationalInst: Fundcollaborativeeffortsbetween industryandeducationalinstitutions (suchasinnovationcenters). IndianGovt/EducationalInst: Providemarketbasedincentivesfor studentsandfacultyinPh.D.programs
Who
Indian government
WhatandWhen
3 5years
How
Partnerwith successful programs
Indian government
Startimmediately
Explorefunding opportunities
Indian government
Startimmediately
Recommendations
Recommendation
MinnEducationalInstitutions: Initiateeducationalexchanges suchas seminarsandstudyabroadprograms forknowledgesharingandcollaboration. MinnEducationalInstitutions: Sponsor consortiafocusedoninternational collaborationbetweenuniversitiesor jointPh.D.programs.Seekindustry sponsors. MinnEducationalInstitutions: Offer onlinecurriculatoIndianstudents.
Who
Universityof Minnesota, privatecolleges
WhatandWhen
13years.
How
Establish contactsthrough Indian educational institutions. Establish contactsthrough Indian educational institutions. Tailordistance learningtoIndian marketdemands. Exploreoptions.
24years.
12years.
ThinkGlobal
All
Now
Keeplearning
Acknowledgements
Group2wouldespeciallyliketothank:
SeniorManagersatIBMResearchInnovationServicesinNewDelhi and Bangalore,whogenerouslyprovideduswithconsiderableknowledgeandinsights duringaninterviewonMarch27,2008andApril3rd 2008. AllofIITNewDelhiandProfessorsSushilandMomaya AllofIIScandProfessorBalaSubrahmanya AllofIIMBangaloreandProfessorRishi Seniormanagementat3MInnovationCenter. Prof.C.E.VeniMadhavan,Innovationcenter,IISCBangalore.
AnnotatedBibliography
1. 2. 3. Carey, Elizabeth. University of Minnesota MOT Program - Engineering Work in India. Presented to MOT2008 class on March 14, 2008. Doz, Yves et. al. Innovation: Is Global the Way Forward? Booz | Allen | Hamilton and INSEAD, 2006. Available on-line at http://www.boozallen.com/media/file/Innovation_Is_Global_The_Way_Forward_v2.pdf Dutz, Mark A., ed. Unleashing Indias Innovation: Toward Sustainable and Inclusive Growth. Washington, DC: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. 2007. Available on-line at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/223546-1181699473021/38767821191373775504/indiainnovationfull.pdf Mitra, Raja M. Indias Emergence as a Global R&D Center - an overview of the Indian R&D system and potential. Working Paper R2007:012. Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies. E-mail info@itps.se or see www.itps.se. Group2 highly recommends this comprehensive, well written study. Money.com. IBM Launches the IBM Institute for Business Value. 12 March 2008. Available on-line at http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/marketwire/0374042.htm Interview with Group 2 on 3/27/08 (interview notes available on request). Senior Manager with IBM. Research Innovation Services, IBM India Private Limited, India Research Laboratory, 4, Block C, Institutional Area, Tiwari, Rajnish et. al. Innovation via Global Route: Proposing a Reference Model for Chances and Challenges of Global Innovation Processes. July 2007, Working Paper No. 49. Published in the Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Globally Distributed Work held by Indian Institute of Management, July 25-27, Bangalore, pp. 451-46. Available on-line at http://www.tuharburg.de/tim/downloads/arbeitspapiere/Working_Paper_49.pdf Interview with Group 2 rep on 4/2/08. Senior Mgmt with 3M Solution Center.
4.
5. 6. 7.
8.
AssessOrganizationReadiness forWorldisFlat
DecisiontoOutsource: AssessOrganizationReadiness
Abilitytomanageprojects
ProcessReadiness CulturalReadiness
ProcessReadiness
1. Whatpercentageofyourlargeandcomplexprojects comeinontimeandonbudget? 2. WhatpercentageofyourstaffisPMIcertifiedor equivalentcertification? 3. Whatpercentageofprojectsaremanagedthrougha centralprogram? 4. Doesthefunctionandbusinessstaffuserealtime communications,workflow,andcontentsharingtools thatsupportdistributedprojects? 5. Doesyourorganizationfollowastandardizeddevelop andmaintenanceprocess? 6. Doesyourorganizationinvestindevelopmentprocess disciplinesliketheSoftwareEngineeringInstitute CapabilityMaturityModel?
ProcessReadiness
7. Doesyourcompanyuseastandardizedandformal requirementsdefinitionandreviewprocessthat introducesrigorinthewaythatbusinessuserscan requestnewrequirementsorchangethem? 8. DoesyourorganizationrelayonServiceLevelAgreements toestablishameaningfullevelofmutualresponsibilityfor internalprojects? 9. Whatpercentageofprojectsaremanagedasaportfolio measuredcomparativelyastotheircostsandbusiness value? 10. Doesyourorganizationfollowaformalsignoffprocess betweenbusinessandprojectreleasesforsystem specificationsandfinaldelivery?
CulturalReadiness
1. Howcostcompetitiveareyoucomparedwithyourtop3 competitors? 2. Doyouhavecorporateoperationindevelopingcountries? 3. Arebusinesssponsorsinterestedingoingoffshore? 4. Whatisyourfirmstoleranceforchangeandrisk? 5. HowmuchdoesyourcompanyspendonIT,Engineering(for example)asapercentageoftotalrevenues? 6. DoesyourcompanypursueoradheretoISO,SixSigma,orother process/qualitymethods? 7. IsyourITorEngineeringdepartmentdistributedorcentralized? 8. Whatisyourcompanysuseofoutsourcing? 9. Whatpercentageofyourworkforceisunionized? 10. Towhatextentareyourbusinessprocessesregulated?
Process Inputs 5 P re -e x is tin g c a p a b ility a n d te c h n ic a l e x p e rie n c e . 5 T ra in in g re q u ire m e n ts . L e v e l o f in te ra c tio n w ith o th e r te a m m e m b e rs . S c o p e w o rk . D a ta tra n s fe r c a p a b ilitie s P ro je c t s iz e /d u ra tio n . O n s ite s u p p o rt & p ro je c t m a n a g e m e n t re q u ire m e n ts . D o c u m e n ta tio n re q u ire m e n ts . 6 9 8 4 6 5 7 B u s in e s s c ritic a lity a n d s c h e d u le . 3 In te lle c tu a l p ro p e rty c o n c e rn s . 10 R e s o u rc e a v a ila b ility fo r th e s p e c ific p ro je c t Total
SourcingStrategyMatrix
Where Do We Invest
Strategic and we are world leaders Invest Highly Strategic Capabilities Focus investment and talent. Treat internal source as preferred supplier Strategic, BUT we lack the technology and scale to compete effectively Collaborate Explore Options such as joint venture, licensing, equity stake. Be a "Smart Customer." Outsource
TheProcess
Benchmarking
E.g.,GE,Infosys,Tata,etc.
Definemission/visionandobjectives Findapartnertoworkwithustorecruittalentandlocatea facility HireanOrganizationDevelopmentconsultant Developorganizationstructure(BoardofDirectors,identifya ManagingDirector,recruitfunctionalleaders) Governance(strategicplanningandfunctionaldirection) Developprojecttrackingsystems,receiveworkcommitments Developfinancialsystems ImplementITstructure HRpoliciesforXPATassignments Openingceremonies
IndiaCultural
Enclosedpleaseafindaninformative presentationwhichstudentsinNewDelhiand NoidagavemeinNovember2007toshare withinterestedcolleaguesintheU.S.
INDIAN CULTURE
India Alandofgreatdiversity,more heterogeneousthananyother countryintheworld. Guestsaregod. TrueRespectforelders. Helpeachother. Multiplyanddistributejoy& happiness. Sharesadnessandpain.
KUCHIPUDIANDHRA PRADESH ItisthedancedramaofAndhraPradesh,here emphasisisontheanimation. GrammarisderivedfromtheNatya Sastra &in allotheraspectsitisakintoBharata Natyam. Kuchelapuram inAndhrawastheoriginating centreforthisstyle.Hencethename Kuchipudi. Itwasamaleprerogative.Inrecentyears womenhavetakentoitbutitismostlysolo.
KATHAKALI- KERALA
ThedomainofKathakali ispeopledby superhumans,Gods,demons&animals whoarepresentedinalargerthanlife format. Splendorofthecostumes,ornaments& facialmakeuptransformtheactor dancerintoatyperatherthana particularcharacter. Acharactercanbeidentifiedbythe colorhesports. Danceisaccompaniedbythedrums& chantingbythesinger.
ODISSI- ORISSA
TheoriginofOdissi danceisclosely linkedwiththereligiousmovementsof Jain,Buddha&Hindus. Thereareamplesculpturesfromthe7th centuryA.D.onwardswhichspeakofthe techniqueofodissi styleofdance. Oflate,definitivestylisticdifferencesin Odissi havecreptinduetothe painstakingeffortsbyseveralGurus.
INDIAN ARTS
TheIndianartandcraftshaveaverylonghistory.Findings in theIndusValley,HarappaandMohenjodaro stand witnesstothisstatement. Indianshavecrystallizedtheartforms,artproductionandart appreciationformorethantenthousandyears. Indianartistshadexcellentconceptsofbeauty,symmetry, strengthoflineandform.ExamplesareCavesofAjanta& Elora. Indianshaveinfinitegods,legends,loreandmythsintheir culture,andartistsutilizedthesetogivethembeautiful formslikemultiheadedandarmedgodsandgoddesses. Mutestonesaretransferredintolivingexpressions. Theartistsattainedthehigheststandardof workmanship,skillandextraordinaryimagination.
INDIAN PAINTINGS
Indiasheritageofpaintingdatesbacktothe primitiveerawhenmanusedtoliveincavesand rockshelters. Paintingwasinitiallystartedforcommunication bydrawinggraphicsorimages.Graduallyittook theshapeofart,evidentfromthecavesin Hoshangabad,Mirazapur andBimbekta. Theurgeofhumanstocapture&preservethe emotionbornoutofvisualizingaspectacle,led tomore&morewonderfulcreations. Paintingswereadvancedandrefinedasearlyas the3rdcenturyB.Casevidentfromthe Indus ValleyCivilization,thecavepaintingsofAjanta& Ellora usingearth&vegetabledyes,etc.
RELIGIONS OF INDIA
Indiaisalandofmultiplereligioussectsthathave growntolivetogetherinharmony,evenassome forcestendtodividethem. Indiansunderstandreligiousthoughtasnoother country,asIndiahasgiventheworldnumerous religiousthoughtsthroughreligionslikeBuddhism, Hinduism,Jainismetc. ReligiousconceptsofKarma,RebirthandAhimsahave allrisenfromthisland. AmongthemajorreligionsofIndiaare:Hinduism, Islam,Christianity,Sikhism,Jainism,Buddhism, Zoroastrianis,JudaismandtheBahai Faith.
INDIAN CUISINE
Indiancuisineisknownaroundtheworldforits diversityanditsdistinctiveuseofspicesincreatinga widerangeofdishes. NotallIndiansarevegetarian,althoughmostare, whichhascontributedtothemarvelousvarietyof vegetabledishesfoundthroughoutIndia. Meatiseatenmainlyinthenorth.Fishandshellfish arepopularalongthecoast,andporkisaspecialtyin Goa. Contrarytopopularbelief,notallIndianfoodishot. Dishesvaryfromregiontoregion culturaltraditions, religion,andgeographyallplayaroleindefininga typicalIndianmeal.
IndiaisthehomeofoneoftheSevenWondersof theworld Taj Mahal.Thisstructurebuiltof marblebytheMughal EmperorShahJahan asa lovetributetohiswifeMumtaz Mahal wouldbe adreamprojectofarchitectsforcenturiesto come.
90 to 100 F In April
Old City
Modern IT Park
www.bangalorebest.com
SWOTAnalysis:India
StrengthsWeaknesses Internal External
OpportunitiesThreats
China
PartIII*:Education,Patents,Industry,Energy&more
S.MassoudAmin,D.Sc.
DirectorandHoneywell/H.W.SweattChairinTechnologicalLeadership UniversityDistinguishedTeachingProfessor ProfessorofElectrical &ComputerEngineering
PresentationattheRochesterSignatureSeries,November21,2008
*Partsofthispresentationweredevelopedforagraduatecourse atCDTLsManagementofTechnology(MOT) programonScienceandTechnologyPolicy(MOT8920).Considerableinputandsupportfromthestudentsinthe MOTclassof2006isgratefullyacknowledged.
Copyright 2008 No part of this presentation may be reproduced in any form without prior authorization.
BeijingOlympics
Stunningarchitecture Birdsneststadium&swimcenter Digitalbuilding
http://www.neatorama.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/watercube.jpg
http://www.globalconstructionwatch.com/wpcontent/uploads/2008/03/digital-beijing-building05.jpg
ChineseEconomicDevelopmentLags
GPD per Capita: China and Western Europe, 1-1950 C.E.
2002 USD
16,000 Western Europe 8,000
575
China
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Year
SOURCE DATA: Maddison, A, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD, p42. (2001) Authors calculation
In Europe - Technologies like Printing, Gunpowder & Compass and the Industrial Revolution created dramatic inflections in the continental economy
Issue Emergence Agenda Setting Alternative Selection Enactment Implementation Evaluation
ChineseEconomicDevelopmentSurges
GPD per Capita: China and Western Europe, 1-1998 C.E.
2002 USD
16,000 Western Europe 8,000
575
China
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Year
SOURCE DATA: Maddison, A, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD, p42. (2001) Authors calculation
Technologies including Atomic science, Semiconductors, Computer technology, Lasers and Automation create turnaround in the Chinese economy
Issue Emergence Agenda Setting Alternative Selection Enactment Implementation Evaluation
ChineseTechnology
Nanotech
TherapeuticColloidalAu&InkofFeOx andHgS <20th CenturyBCE
DecimalSystem CastIron Paper Compass Gunpowder ArchedBridgeConstruction Printing MilitaryRocketry ToiletPaper GlobalSeanavigation
15th CenturyBCE 3rd CenturyBCE 110CE 200CE 750CE 600CE 581CE 1044CE 1391CE 1421CE
BackgroundonChina
Communistcountrywithcurrentstructurefoundedin1949. Theworldsfourthlargestcountryinareawith9,596,960square kilometers(3,705,407squaremiles)oftotallandandwater. Containstheworldslargestpopulationwithapproximately1.3billion people. Currentlyproduces1.42trillionkWhandexports10.3kWhofelectricity. Currentlyproduces3.3millionbarrelsperdayandconsumes4.57 million barrelsperdayofoil. Currentlyproduces30.3billioncubicmetersandconsumes27.4billion cubicmetersofnaturalgas. SecondlargestenergyconsumeraftertheUnitedStates. Currentlyhave263millionwiredand269cellularphonelines. HasthesecondhighestrateofInternetusers(79.5million),justbehind theUnitedStates(159million). Currentlyspendsabout$60billiononmilitaryexpenditures. Availablearmyof380millionpeoplewithanadditional12.5million reachingageannually.
Issue Emergence
Agenda Setting
Alternative Selection
Enactment
Implementation
Evaluation
AgendaSetting 19761978
NewPremierDengXiaopingestablishesaradicalnew directionforthecountry
Issue Emergence
Agenda Setting
Alternative Selection
Enactment
Implementation Evaluation
AgendaSetting 19761978
FourModernizations
Agriculture Industry Military Science&Technology
"the central committee has stipulated that a system of individual responsibility for technical work be established in scientific research institutes and that the system of division of responsibilities among institute directors under the leadership of party committees be set up. Xinhua General News Service, 21 March 1978
Deng Xiaoping
Implementation Evaluation
'As long as it catches mice, it does not matter whether the cat is black or white.'
Issue Emergence Agenda Setting Alternative Selection Enactment
AlternativeSelection 19791982
TheNewLongMarch TheGreatLeapWestward. Revolutionwithinarevolution. Marketsocialism ZhaoZiyang
FiveGoldenBlossoms
Atomicscience Semiconductors Computertechnology Lasers Automation
YunagHwanJoChina'sFutureandOurselves VitalSpeechesoftheDay;Vol.45Issue10,p302,3/1/79
PremierZhaoZiyang;NationalScienceAwards,1982. unevendevelopmentrivalrypoormanagement
Issue Emergence Agenda Setting Alternative Selection Enactment Implementation Evaluation
PeoplesRepublicofChina ScienceandTechnologyMission
http://www.most.gov.cn/
Revitalizingthenationthroughscienceandeducation
Issue Emergence
Agenda Setting
Alternative Selection
Enactment
Implementation
Evaluation
S&TPoliciesandRegulations
Law on Science and Technology Progress
The State Council formulates programs to promote S&T progress and uses S&T as the primary productive force to improve economic construction. Promote high-tech research and industries. Ensure the continuous and steady development of basic research and applied basic re-search ($). Raise the social status of scientific and technical workers.
1982 1984
1990
2000
Enactment
Implementation
Evaluation
Cultural Revolution
GDPinbillionsofU.S.dollars(indexed1980$)
Since the economic reform in 1980, China has experienced unprecedented economic growth: GDP has jumped more than 800%. The corresponding growth in primary energy consumption has increased only 278%. The energy intensity, measured in terms of energy consumption in kilogram of coal equivalent (kgce) per economic output in dollar of Chinese yuan, dropped from 1.33 to 0.46. There are many factors contributing to this improvement in the more efficient usage of energy. A major one may be attributed to the fact that the share of electricity utilization (a more efficient means of energy usage in most cases) in the total energy consumption has more than doubled, up from 20.6% to 43.8%. As a result, the growth in electricity has surged 634% since 1980. This figure shows the growth in the economy:
Implementation ChineseR&DSpending
20% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in R&D Expenditures:19912002
80 60
Issue Emergence
40 20
ChineseR&Dexpenditureis3rd largestgloballybehindUS&Japan
Agenda Setting Alternative Selection Enactment Implementation Evaluation
GlobalR&DPotential(2004data)
GlobalR&DPotential2004
Issue Emergence
Agenda Setting
Alternative Selection
Enactment
Implementation Evaluation
Globalhightechnologymarketshare, byselectedcountry/region:19802001
Globalhightechnologyexportshare, byselectedcountry/region:19802001
FreeMarketVision
ZhaoZiyang Chinasgreatestliberal MarketLiberalVision
Strengtheningthesocialistlegalsystem Advocatednewtypesofinstitutionstopromote developmentofamarketsystem
Requiredpoliticalreform Viewedasathreat
OustedfromGeneralSecretaryposition
ScienceandTechnologyMission
Topromoteandimproveinnovation Tostrengthenfundamentalresearchand HitechDevelopment Toguidethetransferofscienceand technologyachievements Toensurebilateralinternationalscience andtechnologycooperationandexchange Totakechargeofmanagementofscience andtechnology
How much Innovation has stemmed from China, given its strong S&T Mission?
S&TPolicy&Programs
Since S&TPrograms Implemented through FourFiveyear Plans Goal/Objectives ToaddresspressingmajorS&Tissuesinnationaleconomicandsocialdevelopment.The programconcentratesontheR&Dofkeyandcommontechnologiesthatdrivetechnical upgradingandrestructuringofindustriesthatpromotesustainablesocialdevelopment Toboostinnovationcapacityinthehightechsectors,particularlyinstrategichightech fields,inordertogainafootholdintheworldarena 1982 NationalKeyTechnologies R&DProgram
1986
1997
TobuildupasolidS&Tfoundationforthesustainablesocioeconomicdevelopment.
TostrengthenactivitiesinvolvingbasicS&Tandpublicinterestsandtopromote internationalS&TcooperationalongwithnationalS&Tbasesconstruction Tostrengthenpolicyforenvironmentconstruction,promoteregionaleconomic development,enhancetechnicalservicesandexchanges,stimulate developmentof smallandmediumsizedS&Tenterprises(S&TSMEs),vigorouslydevelopS&T intermediaries,andcreateasoundenvironmentforthecommercializationofS&T findingsandthetheirindustrialization. Totakefavorablepositionsinthesciencefrontierinthe21stcenturyandachieve significanttechnicalbreakthroughs,leadingtoindustrializationinmajorfieldsrelatedto nationalsocioeconomicdevelopment,allwithin3to5years.
EnvironmentBuildingfor S&TIndustries
10thFiveyear plan
MegaprojectsofScience Research
10thFiveyear plan
Data from Ministry of Science and Technology of the Peoples Republic of China http://www.most.gov.cn and China Science and Technology Statistics http://www.sts.org.cn
AnalysisofResearch&Development
PrimaryR&Dfocus
Manufacturing Electronics InformationTechnology
FutureR&Dprojections
Implementation SpecialEconomicZones
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Economic_Zone
Issue Emergence
Agenda Setting
Alternative Selection
Enactment
Implementation
Evaluation
Evaluation ChinasTradeinICTGoods(19962002)
28% CAGR in ICT Exports
Issue Emergence
Agenda Setting
Alternative Selection
Enactment
Implementation
Evaluation
DominanceinExportsofICTGoods
ChinaisbiggestexporterofInformationTechnologyGoodsin2004
Issue Emergence Agenda Setting Alternative Selection
OECD:ITSdatabase.
Enactment
Implementation
Evaluation
Centralizedv.FreeMarketS&TPolicy
CentralizedPros
Easierimplementationof policies Focusonnationalagenda Administrativecontrol Centralizedwealthpool Statemonitoringandauditing ofregions Commonpolicieshelp streamlineresourcesand provideguidance Uniformpoliciesguidethe nationeliminatingdysfunction amongtheprovinces
Issue Emergence Agenda Setting Alternative Selection
FreeMarketPros
Diversifiedgoalseekingreveals uniqueopportunities Freedomfortheinvestors Manychoicesforalltoparticipate Increasedforeigninvestment Liberalizingtradeagreements Increasedconsumerchoices Optimizedresourceallocations Broadensglobalreach
Enactment
Implementation
Evaluation
ChinasFuture
Explodingtechnology,innovation&commercialopportunity Sustainedhighgrowth&expandingprivatesector Uniquepatternofurbanization:
Societyintransitionor Socialupheaval
Issue Emergence
Agenda Setting
Alternative Selection
Enactment
Implementation
Evaluation
InterimConclusions
TheBlackBox
S&TPolicy>>20%CAGRR&D>>28%CAGRICTTrade
FocusArea: PowerandEnergy
Context:Citieswith10millionpeople
By2020,morethan30megacitiesinthenowless developedworld.By2050,nearly60suchcities.
Increased population creates need for more resources. World's electricity supply will need to triple by 2050 to keep up with demand, necessitating nearly 10,000 GW of new generating capacity.
105
Global R&D, global investment, Global R&D, global investment, global peace, global technologies global peace, global technologies Education, recreation, the environment, Education, recreation, the environment, intergenerational investment intergenerational investment Literacy, life expectancy, sanitation, infant Literacy, life expectancy, sanitation, infant mortality, physical security, social security mortality, physical security, social security Food, water, shelter, minimal Food, water, shelter, minimal health services health services
104
Amenities Amenities
104
103
103
102
Annual kWh/capita
Survival Survival
S&TforSustainableDevelopment
Consider the couplings in GDP and electricity use: quadrupling of GDP between 1980-1995, while doubling the economys energy demand due to economic reforms and comprehensive national energy conservation programs since 1980s.
Percentageshareofelectricityintotalenergyconsumption(increase intheshareofelectricityintotalenergyconsumption)
EnergyDemand
http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/274
ProjectedEnergyGrowthinChinabyEnergy Source
http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/274
NuclearPower
China has nine operating nuclear power plants, including the Daya Bay facility in Shenzhen. They plan to spend $50 billion to build 32 more by 2020. Possibly 300 by 2050. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/28/AR2007052801051.html
CO2 Emissions
http://futurist.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/24/mn_china.jpg
IronOreandSteel
http://www.economist.com/specialreports/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=10795684
NationwidegridinterconnectionsofChina
Geographicmapofsixregionalpowersystems
NC: North China; EC: East China; CC: Central China; SC: South China; NW: Northwest China; NE: Northeast China
Interconnectionofsixregionalgridsin2005
NationwidegridinterconnectionsofChina
Recentlycompletedhvac/hvdc projects
Central to this is the Three Gorges power grid, consisting of 12-GW HVAC from the Three Gorges to the Central China grid and 7.2-GW HVDC to the East China grid. The first HVDC project in China was in 1987 in Zhejiang province with a 100-MW 100-kV underwater cable that spans 54 km. The first HVDC line from Gezhouba (Three Gorges) to Shanghai was completed in 1991, and a number of other HVDC and HVAC lines linking regional grids have been completed in the last few years as listed above. Additional planned HVDC and HVAC transmission projects for the 20062010 period include: second 3G-Shanghai HVDC link; second Guizhou-Guangdong HVDC link; NC-NE back-toback HVDC link; NC-CC back-to-back HVDC link; Guangdong-Hainan underwater HVDC link; Yunnan-Guangdong HVDC link; NC-NE HVAC link; NW-NC HVAC link.
PMUs andWAMScentralstationsinChina
DecentralizedPMUs andfunctionalmodules
HardwarestructureoftheWAMScentralstation
Communication delays between the PMU at Yang Zhou second power plant and the central station: (a) the network is congested and (b) the network is idle.
(a) the active power along the tie line, and (b) the frequency spectrum obtained with the online Prony analysis
ThethreephaseplanofWAMSapplicationinChina
ResearchedandAddressed
PolicyAreastoberesearched:
NuclearEnergySupply EnergyTransmissionandDistribution EnvironmentalPollution LocalizationofPlantBuilds NuclearWeapons
NuclearEnergySupply
Should China continue to build a nuclear energy supply base?
PublicPerceptionand Sensitivity
Cost $1,200to$1,500perKwH Decommissioningcostsare high Costsgoonwellafterendof production Benefits LessDependenceon ImportationofOil UseLessNaturalResources
CurrentandProposedNuclearPowerPlantsinChina
EnergySupplyTransmissionandDistribution
Pros CheaperOperating Costs ChannelsOwnedby Government Cons Deregulationof Transmission PotentialTerrorist Attacks
EnvironmentalPollution
Should the Chinese Government Utilize Nuclear Energy to Help Curb Pollution? Pros LessEmissions Cons RadioactiveWaste RaisesTemperaturesof LocalWaterResources MeltdownPotential HarmfultoHumans
Costs HighLongtermCostsfor SafeStorage DecommissioningCosts EnvironmentalImpact (Cleanup,treatment,etc.) Benefits Lessproblemswith extractionofnatural resources
LocalizedPlantBuilds
Should the Chinese Government mandate Localized Building of Nuclear Power Plants?
NuclearWeapons
Should China maintain its current policy of Minimum Deterrence with regards to Nuclear Weapons? Pros Costs NeedtobeProvoked Life PreventsFalseAlarms Cons NuclearFallout PotentialtobeHitfirstwith InternationalRelations NuclearWeapons CannotRespondQuickly Benefits TrustinOtherCountries SmallerArsenal Complacency
LessNuclear Development
Extrapolations&Meanings
LookattheresultsupontheGDPandthe countryseconomicgrowth UnderstandhowandwhereChinasS&T developmentisleadingthecountry WhatdoesthismeantotheUSandtheWorld? WhatwerethemeasuresofsuccessandisChina reachingitsgoals
Discussion
HowsuccessfulisChinaincreatingand followingS&Tpolicy? Arethepolicieseffective? ArethereotherthingsshouldChinaconsiderto bolsteritseconomicstrength?
Engineeringbachelorsdegreesbycountry
Example:China
IssueswithIPinChina()
CopyrightPiracy $2.5 $3.8Billionperyear Culturalissues Impossibletoseparatetheinventors activityfromthesocietyofwhichtheinventorispart JudgeslackofexperienceindealingwithIPissues Strugglingwithbalancebetweeneconomic developmentandprotectionofIPrights Lawimplementationneedsimprovement. Foreignpressure primarilyfromgovernments.Only 5%fromforeigncompanies. 95%ofproductpiracycasesinvolveviolationsagainst Chinesecompanies.
http://www.bizasia.com/intellectual_property_/b38fc/toyota_pursues_intellectual.htm https://asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=34148 https://www.signosandiego.com/news/world/20060310-0049-china-productpiracy.html
SpecificExamplesofIPissuesinChina
SoftwarePiracyisunauthorizedcopying,distributing ordownloadingofcopyrightedsoftware. PatentInfringementencroachmentuponthedomain belongingtoapatenteethatisdescribedbytheclaims ofher/hispatent PatentTrollinginvolvesfindingandprocuringpatents, thensuinginfringersofthosepatents.Canalsobe usedtolookatunpatented patentsfromother countriesandestablishingtheminChinaorKorea.
WhatIsSoftwarePiracy? (?) Threeofthemostcommonformsofsoftwarepiracy are: Endusercopying:Organizationsinstallingor usingsoftwareonmorecomputersthanthey arelicensedtosupport. Distribution:Sellingordistributingillegally copiedsoftware,includingcounterfeitproducts. Downloading:Makingunauthorizedcopiesfrom theInternet.
PiracyExamples()
Which is which?
PiracyExamples()
SoftwarePiracy:StatisticsandFacts (:)
MorethanonethirdofadultInternetuserssaytheyhave downloadedcommercialsoftwareonlinewithoutpayingforall thecopiestheymade. (Source:QuantifyingOnlineDownloadingofUnlicensed
Software SurveyofInternetUsers, IPSOSPublicAffairs,May2002)
(Source:IPSOS,May2002)
25%ofuserswhodownloadsoftwaresaytheyneverpayforit.
IPLossCostsforSoftware
Asia / Pacific
Western Europe
Loss Costs
North America
Loss Costs
$1.2 Billion North America & $10.5 Billion $1.1 Billion $964 Million
Canada
PatentInfringementExamples () GeneralMotorsvs.Chery
Design,UnfairCompetitionandTradeSecrets
Toyotavs.GeelyGroup
Copiedlogoanddeceivedcustomersbyclaimingits carsusedToyotaengines
Starbucksvs.Xingbake
CopieditslogoanduseditChineselanguagename
http://www.dega.dk/ref.aspx?id=803
GMSpark
http://www.dega.dk/ref.aspx?id=803
CheryQQ
http://www.dega.dk/ref.aspx?id=803
Toyota vs.Geely
http://www.dega.dk/ref.aspx?id=803
StarbucksWins.($50,000)
http://readbetweentheps.blogspot.com/2006/01/starbucks-vs-xingbake-ipr-protection.html
PatentCosts
Country PatentCost
PatentTrolling
Unprotectedpatentsarefodderforcounterfeiters,competitors andpiratesfromcountrieswithlowIPprotections. AGreatWallofPatents filingforpatentsinChinaforcopied products. Japancurrentlyexperiencing17,000hitsperdayfromChina and50,000perdayfromKoreaontheirpatentwebsite IssuesforU.S.Patents
PatentPendecytakingupto30months 18monthruleishandingoverIPtoChina Backlogofover500,000patentapps CounterfeitersaredirectlyusingUSpatentinformationtofiletheirown patentsinChina.
http://www.eetuk.com/bus/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=183701296
USPatentandTrademarkOffice(USPTO)Role
USPTO
InitiatedSTOPinitiativewhichisaprogramtostop internationalpiracyandcounterfeitingandprotectUSsmall andmediumsizedenterprisesoverseas. ProvidetoolkitsforbusinesseswithIPissuesinChina,Korea, Mexico,TaiwanandRussia. CreatedChinaRoadshowinFY2005forbusinesses contemplatingenteringtheChinamarket.Topicsincluded ChineselawsandregulationsregardingIP. IncreasedtechnicalassistanceinChinaincludingtrainingon IPjudicialinfringementinterpretation,criminalcopyright infringements,andIPenforcementinSouthernChina
http://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/com/annual/2005/040204_intel_policy.html
PatentReformActof2005
IntroducedtotheHouseJune8,2005 Billaddresses:
PatentQuality Limitationoflitigationabuses HarmonizationofUSpatentlawswithourkeytradingpartners Proposesshiftfromfirsttoinventtofirstinventortofile Broadensscopeofprioruser Limitationontrebledamagesforpatentinfringement Publicationofallpatentapplicationsafter18months
ChangescontinuetooriginalbillasitmovesthroughCongress
http://www.uspto.gov/web/offices/com/annual/2005/040204_intel_policy.html
LawsandTreaties()
ChineseLaws
IntellectualpropertyrightscanbetracedbacktoTangDynasty(618907AD) Firstpatentspecificlawenactedin1889 Modernpatentlawbeganin1950 CulturalRevolutioninmid1960sbroughtanendtotherecognitionof intellectualproperty Adoptedtrademarklawsin1982 Adoptedpatentlawsin1985
FirsttoFile model
Adoptedcopyrightlawsin1986through1990
InternationalOrganizations/Treaties/Conventions
BecameamemberoftheWorldIntellectualPropertyOrganization(WIPO)in 1980 BecameapartytotheMadridAgreementfortheInternationalRegistrationof Trademarksin1989
USisstillnotapartytotheagreement
Enforcement()
Threepotentialcoursesofactionsforrightsholders AdministrativeAdjudication
Localofficialsdecideifinfringementoccurred Quick,butnomoneytorightsholdersandverysmallfines Mostpopularcourseofaction
CivilLitigation
Civilcourtsdecideifinfringementoccurred Costlyandlowdamages Increasinginpopularity
CriminalProsecution
Governmentdecideswhetherornottoprosecuteandifinfringement occurred Complaintsincludereferralcriteriatoovague,processpermitstoomuch discretion,andminimumevidentiarythresholdtoohigh Smallpercentageofallactionstaken
LitigationAwards(?)
A $25,000 infringement award does not mean much to a US company but is a significant fine for the Chinese when compared with average annual income Equivalent Value of a $25,000 Infringement Award
RiskAssessmentExample ()
Project Characteristic Question Correct Chinese IP protection path chosen Level of Chinese IP enforcement Use of formal channels to protect IP Familiarity with Chinese IP system Simplicity of IP to be protected Stability of Chinese IP laws Rating Weight 8 3.0 6 1.9 8 1.7 4 1.5 5 1.1 5 0.8 Overall Score Score 24.0 11.4 13.6 6.0 5.5 4.0 64.5
Overall Score Risk Level 10-28 Highest 29-46 Higher 47-64 Moderate 65-82 Lower 83-100 Lowest
http://home.cinci.rr.com/estople/omrat/omrat.htm
RiskAssessmentSensitivityAnalysis ()
Tornado Diagram (Single Factor Sensitivity Analysis)
38 {1} 42.4 {1} 43.2 {1} 44 {1} 45.6 {1} 46.8 {1} 0 10 20 30 40 50 59.5 {10} 58.5 {10} 57.5 {10} 55.5 {10} 54 {10} 60 70 65 {10} Correct Chinese IP protection path chosen Level of Chinese IP enforcement Use of formal channels to protect IP Familiarity with Chinese IP system Simplicity of IP to be protected
http://www.tushar-mehta.com/excel/software/tornado/
HowtoProtectyourIntellectualProperty ()
Thebestoffenseisagooddefenseandviseversa Goonthedefense
EmploylegalmeasuresAfirsttofileprinciple Controltheproductionprocess Focusonhumanresources Knowhowtochoosesuppliersanddistributors Keepeyeoncompetitors Takelegalaction Conductsurveillanceofsuppliersanddistributors Controlemployeeturnover Advocateaggressively
Andtheoffense
http://resources.alibaba.com/article/4117/IP_protection_best_practice_tips.htm
ProtectingIPinChina
http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_page.aspx?ar=1643&L2=21&L3=35&srid=17&gp=0
IPandGlobalizedTechnologyImpact
Fordevelopingcountries:
understandingIPissuesisnecessaryintheirefforts tointegrateintoworldeconomies evolvingsystemofstrongerIPrightsinnew technologiescanultimatelyleadtogainsin innovationandinformation WiselymanagingIPmayleadtoadditionalforeign investment,morelicensingofhighquality technologies,andmoreaccesstoadvanced knowledgegoods
http://assets.cambridge.org/052184/1968/excerpt/0521841968_excerpt.pdf
SWOTAnalysis:China
StrengthsWeaknesses Internal External
OpportunitiesThreats
The (Economic) Ages of Humankind Hunter/Gatherers (~1 Million - ~5K BC) Agriculture (~5K BC - ~1850 AD) Industrial (~1850 AD - ~1950 AD) Information (~1950 AD - ~2040 AD) Bio/Nano (~1995 - ~2040) Virtual (~2015 - ?)
Hunter-Gatherer - Nature Provided Agriculture - Controlled Nature (Plants/Animals) Industrial - Mechanized Agriculture [1800-97% Farmers,Now-2%] IT/BIO/Nano - Automating Industry/Agriculture Virtual - Robotization of
Technology MATTERS
IT/Bio/Nano/Industry/Agriculture
CenterfortheDevelopmentofTechnologicalLeadership (CDTL)attheUniversityofMinnesota
Establishedin1987withan endowmentfrom HoneywellFoundation Expertiseintheinterfaceof business,strategy,science, technology,innovation,and policy HousedintheInstituteof Technology(engineering, mathematics,andphysical sciencescollege)
CDTL*
Management of Technology (MOT)
Technology Tracks
Continuing Education & Professional Training Undergraduate
A B C D E F
WhatDoesCDTLDo?
Engineering
Certificate Programs Research & Consulting Technology Futures Forum Foresight After Four Signature Series Short Courses and Seminars
LeadershipandManagementattheInterface:
CDTL and MOT DNA: -Technology Foresight & Forecasting -Strategic Technology Analysis -Innovation Management -Strategic Management of Technology -Technological Leadership
Entrepreneurship
Institute of Technology Founders2005 Survey of alumni who have started businesses:
15,000 alumni responded 3,024 have founded one or more companies 4,150 active companies, worldwide, employing 551,000, with annual revenue of $90B 2,600 active companies in Minnesota, employing 175,000, with annual revenue of $46B
Pacemaker Brethylium
Ziagen
Navigus
Wheat Varieties
Seatbelt
Radius Plate
Heads-up Display
MMPI-2
GloballyInterlockedDynamics:
UnderstandingtheFullImpactsofDecisionPathways
To unfold the full potential of social progress requires an integrated understanding of the many dimensions of social development, their underpinnings, and the role of science and technology.
TechnologyasaHinge
In the past, we have been unable to account for all areas on the interlocking fan Decisions have been made with incomplete information New technologies now permit us to identify forcing functions, critical junctures, and pinch points Goal: To target our constrained development resources to maximize benefit and minimize unintended consequences
ContrastingStoriesofDevelopment
1) Southern Coast of Taiwan: An example. 2) Advanced Industrial Societies.
ResultsofUnevenDistributionofTechnology Benefits
Indevelopingnations: Populationdislocations Socialupheaval Massivedebt Indevelopednations: Crumblinginfrastructure Environmentalpollution Unhealthylifestyles Observation:Wedontknowthetippingpointatwhich conflictoverunevendistributionofresourceswill impactdevelopednationsonalargescale.
Resource Allocations: From Primitive Countries Survival, to Underdeveloped Countries, to Developing Countries, to Developed Industrial Economies
GlobalTransitionDynamics
The aim is to produce an aggregation of the real time interaction of worldwide activities in technology, health, society, ecology, and economics. The concept is an outgrowth of past efforts of Drs. Starr and Amin to include large system risk analysis into national decisionmaking. The product would be an area-specificprobabilistic-vision of alternative key development decisions in each country, including pinch points, and forcing functions and their future consequences.
LEADERSHIPREPORTCARD
Strategiccustomerrelationships Technologicalhealth Marketposition Globalculture Processdisciplines Constantinnovation Knowledgemanagementsystems
Globalization
Technology/Business/PolicyMap
SWOTAnalysis:
GlobalOpportunitiesforYourOrganization StrengthsWeaknesses Internal External
OpportunitiesThreats
ShorttermMoves
Recommendation Who WhatandWhen How Cost
Page 389
LongtermMoves
Recommendation Who WhatandWhen How Cost
Page 390
people
prosperity
planet
DiscussionandtheRoadAhead:
Whatarethekeyissuesfacing increasedopportunitiesand collaborationsbridgingChina withMN,ournationandthe world?
Whatisyourvisionforthefuture whatwillit looklikeorhowwillitperformin20102025? Whatarethedifficultchallengestoovercome toachieveyourvision? Whatenablingtechnologiesandpoliciesare neededtoaddressthese? Whatcriticalissuesshouldweconsiderin beginningplansfor2010andbeyond?
Thankyou
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