Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
This report was produced through a technical partnership between UNEP, the International Organization for
Migration (IOM), the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the UN University, and
written in collaboration with the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS). The
University of Salzburgs Center for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS) played a key technical role in the development of the
maps.
First published in 2011 by the United Nations Environment Programme
2011, United Nations Environment Programme
Climate Change, Conflict and Migration in the Sahel
ISBN: 978-92-807-3198-9
Job Number: DEP/1432/GE
United Nations Environment Programme
11-13, Chemin des Anmones
CH-1219 Chtelaine, Geneva
Tel. : +41 (0)22 917 8530
Fax: +41 (0)22 917 8064
This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes
without special permission from the copyright holder provided acknowledgment of the source is made. UNEP
would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this
publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission
in writing from UNEP. The designation of geographical entities in this report, and the presentation of the material
herein, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the publisher or the participating
organisations concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the
delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
Layout: Nikki Meith
Cover image: Dust storm in Tekashuwart, Niger. UNU/
Julie Snorek
www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters
Livelihood Security
Climate Change, Migration and Conflict
in the Sahel
Table of contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.1 Objectives and methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.2 Conceptual framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.3 Report structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2. Regional context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.1 Socio-economic conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
2.2 Environmental and climatic conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.3 Livelihoods: Farmers, herders and fishermen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
2.4 Natural resource governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.5 Migration in the region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.6 Conflict in the region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.7 Livelihood vulnerability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
3. Mapping historical climate trends in the Sahel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.1 Mapping historical climate trends in the region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2 Changes in temperature. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
3.3 Changes in rainfall. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.4 Occurrence of drought. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
3.5 Occurrence of flooding. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.6 Areas vulnerable to sea-level rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3.7 Synthesis maps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
4. Understanding climate-related conflict and migration trends in the Sahel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4.1 Southward migration to cities and the coast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
4.2 Environmentally induced migration due to rapid-onset disasters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
4.3 Climate-related conflict over scarce resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
4.4. Other responses to changing climatic conditions in the Sahel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
5. Improving adaptation planning in the Sahel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
5.1 Reducing conflict and migration risk through sound adaptation planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
5.2 Using conflict and migration considerations to prioritize adaptation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
5.3 Capitalizing on conflict and migration management to strengthen adaptation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
6. Conclusions and recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.1 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
6.2 Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Annexes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Annex 1. Acronyms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Annex 2. Glossary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Annex 3. Map methodologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Annex 4. Migration data used (2000-2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Annex 5. Summary of datasets used . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Annex 6. Land area and population affected by changes in the four climate indicators used. . . . . 90
Annex 7. Population vulnerable to sea-level rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Annex 8. Adapting to change: Lessons from local best practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Annex 9. References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Annex 10. Acknowledgements. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
Figures
Figure 1. Conceptual framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Figure 2. Mapping climate hotspots in the Sahel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Figure 3. Mean seasonal temperature in the CILSS countries (1970-2006). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Figure 4. Mean seasonal rainfall in the region (1900-2009). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Figure 5. Frequency and land area covered by flooding in countries experiencing 9-10 floods. . . . . 46
Figure 6. Frequency and land area covered by flooding in countries experiencing 11-12 floods. . . . 46
Figure 7. Changes in the surface area of Lake Chad (1963-2007) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Maps
Map 1. Geographical area covered in this study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Map 2. Population density and dynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Map 3. Cross-border transhumance routes (2001-2004). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Map 4. Major migration flows in the region (2000-2002) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Map 5. Conflict occurrences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Map 6. Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Map 7. Rainfall. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Map 8. Drought. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Map 9. Flooding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Map 10. Sea-level rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Map 11. Areas affected by the most extreme changes in individual climate indicators. . . . . . . . . . . 48
Map 12. Areas most affected by cumulative changes in climate. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Case Studies
Case study 1. What business does a herder have in town? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Case study 2. Food crisis causes pastoralists to migrate south . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Case study 3. Lake Faguibine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Case study 4. Flooding and migration in Ghana. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Case study 5. Farmer-herder conflict in Niger and Nigeria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Case study 6. Environmental conflicts in Lake Chad. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Case study 7. Best practices in adaptation Association Zoramb Naagtaaba . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Case study 8. Burkina Fasos National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
Boxes
Box 1. Forest-based livelihoods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Box 2. The role of non-climate factors in migration and conflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Box 3. OECD climate projections and recommendations for the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Box 4. Data limitations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Box 5. Overview of National Adaptation Programmes of Action in the region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Box 6. Gender inequalities related to climate change impacts, migration and conflict. . . . . . . . . . . 67
Box 7. The Great Green Wall initiative for the Sahara and the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Box 8. Integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Foreword
Jointly contributed by UNEP, IOM, OCHA and UNU
Preface
by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS)
Moreover, considering future climate change scenarios and their potential implications on human
security, it was necessary to attempt to analyze
the impacts of climate change on migration and
conflict in order to take efficient counter-action. This
Executive Summary
Competition between communities and countries
for scarce resources, especially water, is increasing,
exacerbating old security dilemmas and creating new ones, while environmental refugees are
reshaping the human geography of the planet, a
trend that will only increase as deserts advance,
forests are felled and sea levels rise. By formulating such a strong statement during the July 2011
debate on climate change and security in the
UN Security Council, UN Secretary-General Ban Kimoon underscored the urgent need to assess the
implications of climate change for conflicts and
environmentally induced migration.
Dubbed ground zero for climate change due to its
extreme climatic conditions and highly vulnerable
population, the Sahel has faced massive population growth, pervasive poverty, food insecurity, and
chronic instability for decades. With a majority of the
population directly dependent on natural resources
for its livelihood, the predicted impacts of climate
change for resource availability and food security
in the region could be dramatic.
A mission undertaken to the Sahel in June 2008
by Jan Egeland, then Special Advisor to the UN
Secretary-General for Conflict Prevention and
Resolution, highlighted three main risks: (i) the threat
posed by the potential impacts of climate change
for livelihoods, in particular for livelihoods that are
dependent on natural resources, such as farming,
fishing and herding; (ii) increasing migration pressures due to disasters, conflicts and the associated
loss of livelihoods; and (iii) escalating tension and
potential conflicts over increasingly scarce natural
resources, coupled with the availability of small
arms and light weapons.
These findings called for further research and
analysis on historical climate trends in the Sahel, in
order to understand more about how livelihoods
were being affected, what coping mechanisms
were emerging, and how these changes related to
behavioural responses such as conflict and migration. This report, which was authored by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in cooperation with the
International Organization for Migration (IOM), the
Conclusions
Significant changes in regional climate
trends detected, impacting livelihoods
and food security
1) The regional climate trends observed over
the last 40 years in the Sahel show that overall
temperatures have risen, droughts have been
recurrent and severe, rainfall has generally
increased, and floods have occurred more
frequently and with more intensity: There has
been a general increase in mean temperature
in the region since 1970, with half the population in the CILSS countries experiencing an
increase of between 0.5-1C, and 15 per cent
an increase of more than 1C. Precipitation has
also increased in some parts of the region since
the early 1970s, although the mean seasonal
rainfall is still below the long-term average from
1900 to 2009. Flooding has increased in frequency and severity, affecting large numbers
UN Photo/Kay Muldoon
Livelihoods that depend on natural resources, such as this herder in the grasslands of Mali, are particularly
vulnerable to changes in the climate
Recommendations
Major investments in climate change
adaptation should be used to reduce
the risk of conflict and forced migration
1) Conduct follow-up field assessments in the
hotspots identified in this study, using a livelihoods approach: Livelihoods provide a clear
stepping stone between climate change and
conflict risk, as well as between climate change
and migration. A livelihoods approach is therefore well suited for follow-up field assessments
that should determine how resource availability
is changing; how livelihoods and food security
are being affected; what coping strategies
or adaptation measures are being adopted;
whether competition between livelihood groups
over scarce resources is increasing, and whether
this a contributing factor in local-level conflicts or
migration decisions; and what specific technical
and financial support are needed to increase
livelihood resilience to changing climatic condi-
10
11
1.Introduction
Building on his 2009 report on Climate Change
and its Possible Security Implications, UN SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki-moon declared in the Security
Council in July 2011 that climate change not only
exacerbates threats to international peace and
security;6 it is a threat to international peace and
security. His statement echoed those of many in
the international community who view with growing
concern the potential impacts on national security
of such phenomena as sea-level rise, extreme
weather events and increasing resource scarcity.
The Security Council debate, in which 65 speakers
took the floor, marked an important shift for the
topic in international fora from the margins of
the environmental community to the heart of the
security agenda.
In 2008, as the UN system undertook to better
understand the potential threat of climate change
for international stability, the Secretary-General
deployed his then Special Advisor on Conflict Prevention and Resolution, Jan Egeland, to the Sahel,
a region dubbed ground zero for climate change7
due to its extreme climatic conditions and highly
vulnerable population. Stretching 3,860 km across
the African continent, the Sahel faces numerous
wars and civil conflicts, increasing population pressures, and pervasive poverty and aid dependency.
Conducted together with experts from the United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and other
agencies in June 2008, Egelands mission highlighted three key areas: (i) the risks posed by the
potential impacts of climate change for livelihoods
in the Sahel, in particular for livelihoods that are
dependent on natural resources, such as farming,
fishing and herding; (ii) increasing migration pressures due to disasters, conflicts, and the associated
loss of livelihoods; and (iii) escalating tension and
potential conflicts over increasingly scarce natural
resources, coupled with the availability of small
arms and light weapons.8
While underscoring the need for greater investment in climate change adaptation, these findings
called for further research and analysis on historical
climate trends in the region, in order to understand
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Monrovia
"
Ghana
om
Bouak
Bauchi
"
Minna
!
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Tamale
Cte d'Ivoire
ew
Kaduna
Kainji
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kV
"
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ug
"
!
!
Bla c
Freetown
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!
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ad
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ma B la
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Kano
"
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!
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Guinea
Re
Bobo Dioulasso
Conakry
!
!
Gusau
Burkina Faso
GuineaBissau
Sokoto
"
"
!
"
100'N
Bissau
!
!
Ouagadougou
"
50'N
h i te V
o lta
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00'
k Vo l t a
u ha m
ad
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Chad
i)
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Ziguinchor
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!
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Zinder
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Serre Kunda
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asa
Ba
! Mopti
100'N
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a di
Senegal
er
Banjul
Kaolack
The
Gambia
! Diourbel
! Thies
!
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ia
!
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ig
"
Mbour
di
il l
Dakar
150'N
ga
Wa
go
l'A
Agadez
Ou ban
ne
ak
Valle d
e
Se
Saint-Louis !
ou
za
Gir i
Mali
N ig er
La ke
Fa guibine
Co ngo C o
n
Val l e d
Arlit
u Tile m
"
"
150'N
si
Mauritania
Nouakchott
Co
200'N
Wad
IMPACTS
CLIMATE CHANGE
Threat multiplier
NON CLIMATE
FACTORS
Vulnerability
Food security
Water security
Health issues
Economic
Social
Natural resource
availability
Political
Demographic
pressure
Possible responses/outcomes
Migration
Resource competition
Political destabilization
Conflict
Land degradation
reverses the development process, the resulting increased vulnerability may undermine the
capacity of States to maintain stability.
14
Report structure
Following this introduction, Chapter 2 provides
background on the region, including a socio-economic profile, a brief history of conflict, population
trends, and an overview of natural resource-based
livelihoods and the use of migration as a traditional
adaptation strategy.
The historical analysis of climate trends in the
region is presented in Chapter 3 through five
regional maps. Four of the maps show changes in
temperature, rainfall, flooding, and drought over
time; the fifth illustrates areas that are projected
to be affected by sea-level rise. Following each of
the first four, the potential implications for livelihoods
are discussed. Two concluding synthesis maps
combine the data to identify hotspots. The first
shows areas where the most extreme changes in
the four individual climate indicators have taken
place, while the second depicts those affected by
UNU/Julie Snorek
15
2. Regional context
is rural over 70 per cent in the nine CILSS countries and approximately 60 per cent in the broader
region.16,17 While population density varies across
the region, it has increased faster than in the rest
of the world in the past decades, from 25 persons
per square kilometre (km) in 1970 to 41 persons per
km in 2010,18 as compared to the global average
rise from 27.1 persons per km in 1970 to 33.7 in
2010.19 The most rapid increase in population in
recent years (2001-2010) has occurred in Niger and
Liberia, with an average yearly growth rate of 3.7 per
cent, closely followed by Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone,
Benin and Chad, with a yearly population increase
of more than 3 per cent.20 The average population
growth rate in the region was 2.8 per cent per year,
while the global average was 1.2 per cent.21 With
some 42 per cent of the population under the age
of 14,22 the youth bulge affecting the countries
This section aims to provide the relevant background information on the region covered by this
report, including the prevailing socio-economic
conditions, environmental and climatic conditions,
natural resource-dependent livelihoods and natural
resource governance structures, as well as a historical overview of migration patterns and conflict in
the region. This is presented in order to frame the
prevailing conditions and existing vulnerabilities
that risk being compounded by changes in the
regional climate.
50'W
50'E
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150'E
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Major rivers (perennial)
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!
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100'N
!
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150'N
Wadi Tam
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_
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_
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_
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_ _ __ _ _
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_ _
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_ 150'E
__ _
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100'W
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150'W
Ba
"
"
UN Photo/John Isaac
A young boy tills the soil in Mali, where rain-fed agriculture is one of the main livelihoods despite harsh
seasonal fluctuations and erratic crop yields
Economic conditions
The region covered in this report is characterized
by pervasive poverty and low development. Within
the CILSS countries, the average per capita gross
domestic product (GDP) in 2009 was US$ 903,
ranging from US$ 350 in Niger to US$ 3,000 in Cape
Verde, with some 69 per cent of the population
earning less than US$ 2 per day. Per capita GDP
in the broader region covered by this report is US$
800.23 In 2008, remittances made up approximately five per cent of GDP in CILSS and the wider
region.24 Of the 17 countries included in this study,
17
18
00'
50'E
Libya
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u Tilem
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"
19
ua
pa
00'
si
Mauritania
Nouakchott
200'N
Wad
UN Photo/Evan Schneider
Fishing is a key source of income and food inthe region, particularly in coastal states such as Senegal, Cape
Verde and Mauritania
20
UNEP/Bessma Mourad
Populations across the region remain highly dependent on fuelwood for their household energy needs. In Burkina
Faso, hundreds of carts and trucks piled high with wood travel throughout the night from areas outside of the
capital Ouagadougou to reach the markets by morning
21
UN Photo/John Isaac
However, a number of regional governance initiatives have recently been adopted that hold promise
for addressing the challenges posed by climate
change in a more coherent and harmonized way.
For example, the Africa Ministerial Conference of
Environment Ministers (AMCEN) highlighted the challenges faced by the continent as a result of climate
change in the Joint Statement resulting from its 12th
session held in 2008,68 while the Economic Com-
Seasonal migration of herders and their livestock is a traditional livelihood strategy in the Sahel. However,
droughts and changes in rainfall have modified these traditional movements
22
UN Photo/John Isaac
Adverse changes in the environment, such as drought, can lead to migration when natural resource-dependent
livelihoods are undermined. During the 1980s large numbers of Chads rural population moved to the capital
NDjamena in search of alternative opportunities for income
23
50'W
00'
50'E
Irha r rhar
Libya
am
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361
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250'N
974
100'E
250'N
150'W
to Europe
200'N
l' A
Valle d
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306
Cte d'Ivoire
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!
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!
m
Ko
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!
!
Iseyin !
!
"
Abidjan
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Kainji
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Tamale
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"
!
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!
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139
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50'N
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100'N
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!
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138
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Bobo Dioulasso
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"
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!
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200'E
goo
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!
"
la c
an
149"
163
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Bamako
ko
f in
g
109
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!
!
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Ziguinchor
Sgou
Ba
!
!!
!
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Niger
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G am
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er
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ou
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za
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u Tilem
"
"
150'N
si
Mauritania
Nouakchott
Ba
200'N
Wad
UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe
Conflicts in the region have resulted in large numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). At
mid-2011, for example, there were over 130,000 IDPs in 38 camps in Eastern Chad, due to intermittent conflict
in the country since 1965
25
Tunisia
Tripoli
al-Aziziyah
Safi
Benghazi
Marrakesh
Agadir
50'W
00'
50'E
Libya
t
asse
fa
Ta
am
ui
t A to
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sset
a nr
ss a
set
Wa
di
200'E
i
ad
W
Wadi Tam
anras
150'E
W a di
Algeria
250'N
100'E
250'N
100'W
Irha r rha r
150'W
200'N
Agadez
Niger
Wadi Te g
a
ou m
Bouak
"
!
"
!
!
Yamoussoukro
!
Kumasi
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! Ikorodu
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hr
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dr
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Warri
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!
"
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Takoradi
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Cr
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ne
Douala
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ga
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2Sa-n5
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Map description:
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Map
ng
Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS),
m
lm
aS
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g o University of Salzburg, Austria, October
a2010
Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel) member states.
lo
Ts
h
ua
pa
100'E
150'E
50'E
ng
00'
Co
50'W
200'E
Lo
el
m
100'W
150'W
ng
Co
im
bo
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Sang
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Dakar Capitals
11 - 25
26 - 55
km
1.000
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Land cover
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Sa
6 - 10
Atlantic Ocean
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la
!
!
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Equatorial
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!
!
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hr
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Moundou
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go
"
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la
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Equatorial
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t
ma
Cameroon
!
!
Number
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Ikot Ekpene
!
!
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!
!
Jimeta
Areas Bamenda
affected by conflict
!
!
( 25 battle deaths)
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Aba
ad-Duayn
!
!
aA
"
"
" Onitsha
"
Port Harcourt
!
!
Mubi
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100'N
Ch
Base map
Enugu
" Benin
nu
"
"
"
!
!
Makurdi
!
!
Ondo
"
"
Lom
!
!
""
Abidjan
"" Oshogbo
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Ado Okene
"
!"
! !
! !
!
Iwo !
!!
!
"
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Ife !
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!
! !
!
!
"
"
!
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Abeokuta
Lagos !
Cotonou
"
Ca p e Ver d e
N'Djamena
"
"
Maiduguri
!
!
Be
Nigeria
Ogbomosho
Abomey
"
nd
Sa
La ke
Chad
na
!
!
Iseyin !
!
La ke
Volt a
Ba
N
50'N
Togo
ta
Liberia
Ga
Gombe
!
!
in
v a l ly
"
"
"
Abuja
!
!
er
Ka t s
Ca
Koss ou
Res ervoir
Jos
Minna
!
!
N ig
Ghana
oe
"
Monrovia
Kainji
La ke
Benin
Cte d'Ivoire
om
ew
Bauchi
"
"
Tamale
Kaduna
!
!
Chad
Zaire
26
50'N
n
Ba
Sierra Leone
ug
"
"
"
o lt
kV
Ko
ad
Damaturu
Zaria
ma B la
Bla c
"
"
"
Ot
da
!
"
Kano
"
dV
o
lta
er
"
Freetown
!
!
Katsina
!
!
nc
Conakry
N ig
Re
Bobo Dioulasso
Guinea
!
!
"
Gusau
Burkina Faso
Sikasso
GuineaBissau
Maradi
Sokoto
"
"
Ouagadougou
!
"
ad
i H aw ach
sa
Pointe Noire
Kinshasa
Cabinda
Boma
Kananga
Mbuji-Mayi
ng
00'
h i te V
o lt
Bissau
!
!
100'N
k Vo l t a
i T e li B a
u ha m
Zinder
Gir
i
!
"
gui (Ub
ang i)
an
"
za
go
Bamako
ko
f in
Ba
ha
Ou ban
Sgou
bi
Ziguinchor
ad
G am
!
!
Niamey
"
"
Serre Kunda
Bos so
! Mopti
Ba
T h e Banjul !!!
Gambia
Kayes
S alo um
a di
Senegal
la c
Kaolack
er
! Diourbel
! Thies
!
ia
!
"
ig
"
Mbour
di
il l
Dakar
150'N
ga
Wa
Gir i
l'A
ak
Co ngo C o
n
ne
ou
za
Valle d
e
Se
Saint-Louis !
La ke
Fa guibine
Mali
N ig er
Arlit
ng
Val l e d
rde
u Tile m
"
"
150'N
si
Mauritania
Nouakchott
Co
200'N
Wad
Verde
Misratah
Morocco
UN Photo/Jeffrey Foxx
In the Sahel, women often travel great distances daily to collect water from scarce sources such as seasonal
waterholes. Changes in climate affect the availability of natural resources and increase vulnerabilities, such as
food and water insecurity
27
Changes in climate, such as greater rainfall variability or rising temperatures, affect the availability of
natural resources and increase vulnerabilities, such
as food and water security. Other effects include
negative health impacts due to malnutrition and
favourable conditions for disease transmission.97
Further, ineffective governance compounds these
challenges through vague or contradictory land
policies and poor natural resources management
capacity. This may in turn contribute to environmental degradation.98
Of course, non-climate change-related factors also
play a critical role. Political, economic and social
factors are all paramount in understanding vulner-
28
29
CLIMATE INDICATORS
Slow onset
Temperature
Sudden onset
Rainfall
Drought
Flood
CHANGES
Cumulative
Extreme
CLIMATE HOTSPOTS
30
Mean seasonal
temperature
30.5
LTA5
30.0
LTA10
29.5
06
04
20
02
20
00
20
90
20
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
19
19
19
72
29.0
70
Source: Climate Research Unit Time-Series (CRU TS) 3.0 climate data. Includes the five year long-term average (LTA5), and the
ten year long-term average (LTA10)
31
! !
! ! ! _
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Map 6. Temperature
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Val l e du T i le
ms i
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_ _ _ _ _
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_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
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_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _
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_ _ _ _
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250'N
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_ _
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go
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Major rivers
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C
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bi
Waterbodies
i
op or
Map production:
Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS),
S a l 2010
University of Salzburg, Austria, October
o
200'E
im
on g o
Ma
_ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
CILSS
!
!
! countries
!
!
!
ok
Cartographic information: g a
or
Scale (main map): 1:12,000,000 for DIN A3 prints a
_
Reference system: Geographic coordinates
e m ba
Ik e lWorld
Datum:
Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84)
Ru
> 1,000,000
"
"
"
ga
_
_ _
!
! _ _ _
" !
!
"
!
_ _ _ ! _
Lo
el
Zaire
Kinshasa
"
"
"
"
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict
in the Sahel
"
""
" Kinshasa
Brazzaville
!
Pointe Noire
"
"
ad-Duayn
!
!
_ _
_ _ _
26
- 55!
!
!
_
_ _ _ _
6 - 10 !
iri
_
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
50'E
Definition of indicator:
O trend reflects the observed changes in mean seasonal temperature
Temperature
go
g oo
on
(in C) based on
CRU TS 3.0 global climate data. A l
C
im
Gabon
bo
11 -!25!
_Congo
oo
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(U
N g > 5,000
ok
o
_ _ _
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gh
Libreville
ui
!""!Bangui
2-5
Data sources:
_
Temperature data: CRU TS 3.0 (1970-2006)
a
Population
African Population Database (1970-2000); GPWv3 (2010)
I _ data:
_PRIO-CSCW (1970-2005)
Conflict data:
Background vector data: ESRI; FAO GeoNetwork; GAUL; GRUMP (alpha)
ja
ng
Number of conflicts
_
_ _
_ _
_
> -500 - 0
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African Republic
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_
Wa
_
_ _ _
_ _ _
_
! !
in d
_ _
i B o s so
!
!
ma
_ _
_ _
_ _
u
W a d i Te g o
Ba
za
Va l l e d
e
l 'A
Niger
Be n o u e
ou
ak
Agadez
!
!
_ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
00'
!
!
! ! !
_ _Niamey
_ _ ! !
"
"
_ _ ! !
_ !
!
_ _
! !
150'E
_
_ _ _
_
_
_
_
Wa
Algeria
_
_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
100'E
50'E
33
Using average data from 1961 to 1990 as a baseline, FAO has predicted significant decline in global
cereal production by 2050, with a 20-50 per cent
decrease in cereal productivity in the Sahelian belt
from Niger to Senegal.111 In addition, increased
temperatures are expected to change the spread
and occurrence of various diseases and pests, such
as locusts, with potentially serious consequences for
the health of plants and animals, as well as human
health.112 However, many factors influencing how
an increase in temperature affects livelihood
practices in the region remain uncertain, such as
potential changes in evapotranspiration rates and
water availability.
UNU/Julie Snorek
Seasonal lakes, such as this one in Tekashuwart, Niger, provide both humans and animals with drinking water
during the rainy season. Changes in rainfall can affect the availability of water and fodder for cattle, leading to
alterations in the migratory patterns of pastoralists
34
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations National Climatic Data Center (NOAA NCDC) Global Historical
Climatology Network data, 1900-2009. Averages over 20-10N, 20W-10E
35
Agadir
Canary Islands
Map 7. Rainfall
150'W
100'W
50'W
00'
250'N
ra s se t
Kh
at t
Ato u
Wa di Ta
m an
200'N
Wa d i
Nouakchott
Val l e du T i le
ms i
Mauritania
20 0 mm
"
"
!
Mali
pe Verde
35
Verde
La ke
Fa guibine
!
Saint-Louis !
ga
ne
"!
!
!
Diourbel
Senegal
! Kaolack
!
Kayes
!
!
!
!
um
Serre Kunda
!!
!
Sgou
am b
ia
Bamako
l ta
"
"
i ng
Ziguinchor
ko
af
!
!
Niamey
"
"
W hi t e
Vo
Mopti
Ban i
!
!
T h e Banjul !!
Gambia
S al o
er
Mbour
ig
! Thies
!
"
"
!
!
600 mm
150'N
Dakar
Se
Ouagadougou
"!
"
"
"!
o lt
!
!
!
Bl
Sikasso
!
!
Guinea
Bobo Dioulasso
!
!
Re
er
Nig
Oti
Wh
Benin
i te
"
"
Vo
Conakry
l ta
GuineaBissau
ac
Vo
100'N
Burkina Faso
Bissau
"!
lt a
!
!
Bl
Tamale
ac
k
Sierra Leone
Cte d'Ivoire
Ko
Ghana
o
e
" Bouak
"
Ca
Sew
Togo
"
"
lt
Vo
Freetown
va
Koss ou
Res ervoir
lly
Yamoussoukro
Kumasi
!
!
!
Abomey
La ke
Volt a
!
!
"
"
"
Liberia
Ashiaman
!
!
ss
"
"
Lom
!
"
"
Abidjan
an
"!
"
"
Accra
"
dr
a
50'N
!
!
!
Takoradi
Atlantic Ocean
C a p e Ve r d e
!
!
Praia
Scale: 1:5,000,000
150'W
36
Cotonou ! La
!
!
V o lt
Sa
uo
am
Monrovia
nd
"!
Ba
"
"
00'
erde
e
N ige
0 mm
50
km
100
250
100'W
km
1,000
500
50'W
00'
"
"
Po
150'E
200'E
h ar rha
d i Ir
Libya
Wa d
et
as
an
ss
ra
afa
iT
ss
250'N
Wa
Algeria
a
iT
200'N
ad
s et
!
!
Arlit
Agadez
Niger
Va l l e d
e
l 'A
za
!
!
u
W a d i Te g o
ma
Wa
di
Di
ha
l
i Te
li B a s a
Chad
m
35 0 m
Ba
ad
Zinder
Niamey
"
"
lG
al
d i H aw a ch
hr
i B o s so
ll i
Wa
20 0 m m
ad
150'N
ou
ak
20 0 m m
35 0 m m
600 mm
!
!
!
!
Maradi
Sokoto
"
"
Gusau
600 mm
La ke
Chad
! Katsina
!
!
!
Kano
Ko
"
"
"
ad
ug
n
Ga
N'Djamena
"
"
Maiduguri
Damaturu
"
"
"
"
"
!
!
ad-Duayn
Zaria
"
"
"
Bauchi
"
!
!
Kainji
La ke
!
!
nu
at
si
na
!
!
Ngaoundr
la
"
"
" Onitsha
"
Bamenda
!
!
> 250 mm
!
!
!
"
!
ja
350 mm
N g > 5,000
ok
o
"
"
!
Gabon
CILSS countries
im
C on g
ng
150'E
iri
n
Co
go
Lu lo n
ga
Lo
Ma
Ye
k
r in
B ol
ki
on
M a ri n
B u si ra
Map production:
Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS),
S a l 2010
University of Salzburg, Austria, October
on
Tsh
go
ok
Cartographic information: g a
or
Scale (main map): 1:12,000,000 for DIN A3 prints a
Reference
Geographic coordinates
e msystem:
b aGeodetic System 1984 (WGS 84)
Ik e lWorld
Datum:
Ru
ri
p o ri
bi
It
Major wadis (non-perennial)
u ap
ga
"
"
ga
200'E
Lo
el
Co
100'E
50'E
26 - 55
ng
Definition of indicator:
Precipitation trend reflects theOobserved
changes in seasonal precipitation (in mm) based on g o
g oo
on
CRU TS 3.0 global climate data.
A li
C
m
!
!
Dakar Capitals
11 - 25
ue
oo
Og
6 - 10
Congo
!
!
!
!
bo
Data sources:
Precipitation data: CRU TS 3.0 (1970-2006)
Population data: African Population
Database (1970-2000); GPWv3 (2010)
I
Conflict data: PRIO-CSCW (1970-2005)
Background vector data: ESRI; FAO GeoNetwork; GAUL; GRUMP (alpha)
gh
Libreville
> 1,000,000
"
"
Equatorial 600 mm
Guinea
Sa n
i)
"
"
"
ng
"
"
Bangui
2-5
D ja
Yaound
Isohyets (mm/year)
ba
>"
-50
- 50 mm
"
Bangui
> -500 - 0
"
G ir
a
" rra g
"
a
!
!
(U
00'
ui
go
Equatorial
Guinea
Bertoua
o C on
Douala
Malabo
> 50 - 100 mm
C on g
"
ng
Number of conflicts
i)
Calabar
ng u i (U
ba ng
"
"
Port Harcourt "
Population trend
Bafoussam
Precipitation trend (May-Oct)
No
u n in precipitation (in mm)
Changes
ga
na
< -100 mm
Sa
!
!
"
O ub a
"
G ir i
Umuahia
!
!
Ikot Ekpene
!
"
Aba " !
C ro ss
" Warri
"
!
!
Co
"
Sarh
" Benin
"
at
Cameroon
Enugu
"
la m
am
Be
Makurdi
!
!
"
Porto-Novo
!
!
Moundou
Sa
hr
Ou h
Nigeria
"
"
Oshogbo
! Ikorodu
Cotonou ! Lagos !
"
!
"
Ba
ne
in d
"
go
"
"
Lo
Garoua
Jimeta
!
!
Abuja
!
!
Be n o u e
ge
Ogbomosho
"
"
!
!
!
!
"
"
!
!
Iseyin !
!
Mubi
Jos
Minna
Ni
Abomey
Gombe
100'N
"
"
Benin
Cha r
Maroua
Kaduna
!
!
100'E
50'E
Zaire
Kinshasa
Kinshasa
Brazzaville
37
38
IRIN
Flooding has had a significant impact on livelihoods in the region, destroying infrastructure and crops,
and often leading to massive displacement. In recent years, the region has experienced an increase in the
frequency and severity of flooding
39
!
!
! ! ! _
Agadir
Map 8. Drought! !
!
_ _
_
!
!
Canary Islands
!
! 150'W
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
_ _
_
_ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
_
_
_ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
_ _
_ _
_ _
100'W
_ _
! _
_
! !
"
"
!!
_
_
_ _ _
50'W
_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
_
_
00'
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_
_ _ _
_ _
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_ _
_
_
_ _
_ _
Nouakchott
!
"
"
!
_ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
_
_
_
!
_
!
_
!
!
_ ! !
ne
_
_ _
!
!
! ! !
_
!
!
!!
!
!
S al o
! !
Serre
Kunda!
!
um
_ _
! !
_G am
Bissau
!
!
_ _ _
_ _
_
!
!
!
"
"
"!
! ! !
_
_ !
_ _
! !
! !
!
!
! !
er
! !
! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Sikasso
!
!!
!
!
! c k!
la
!
!
! ! !
! ! !
! !
! !
! !
! !
! !
! ! !
! !
!
!
! ! !
! ! ! !
! ! ! !
! !
! !
! ! !
!
!
! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
_ _ _ _
_
_
! !
!
! !
! !
Abidjan
dr
! !
!
an
_
_
! !
! !
! !
!
!
!
!
! !
! !
! !
! !
" !
"
!
"
! !
! ! !
! !
! ! !
! !
_
_
Oti
!
! !
! ! !
! ! !
! !
! !
! Kumasi
! ! !
!
"!
"
!"
! ! !
!
!
!
!
! ! !
!
!
! !
! !
! !
! ! ! ! !
! !
! !
La ke
!
!
Volt a
!
Ashiaman
!!
!
!
! !
! ! ! ! !
!
!
!
Togo
! !
! !
! !
!
! Abomey
!
! !
!Vo!lt a !
! !
! !
00'
150'W
40
50
km
100
250
Lom
Accra
100'W
km
1,000
500
50'W
00'
! ! !
Atlantic Ocean
Scale: 1:5,000,000
! ! !
! ! ! ! !!
Cotonou ! La
! ! ! ! ! ! !!
!!
"
"
! !"" !
!
!!
!
!
!! !
! ! !
"
"
!"
Praia
Benin
C a p e Ve r d e
!!
! ! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
! ! !
!
!
! ! !
!
!
! ! !
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
! !!
Takoradi
!
!
!
Ghana
!
! !
!
!
_
!
!
!
!
_ _ _ Tamale
_
_
_
!
_ _ _ _ ! !
Niamey
_
_
!
"
_ "
!
_
_
_ _
!
!
!
!
Re
!
!
! !
"!
m
_o
Yamoussoukro
!
_
! ! ! !
!
_
_
_
! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !
!
!
!
"
"
!
Koss
_ ou _
Res ervoir
! !
!
!
!
!
! ! !
Ouagadougou
_
_ _
_
_
" !Bouak
_
!"
n
uo ! ! !
!
! !
ss
50'N
Sa
N
!
am
! !
! !
! ! ! !
! ! !
nd
! ! !
_ _
_ _
!
!
! !
! !
W hi t e
!
!
Dioulasso
!
!Bobo
Ba
! ! ! ! ! !
! !
! ! !
"! ! Liberia
"
"!
Monrovia
!
!
! !
!
!
lly
! !
! ! !
!
!
!
Cte d'Ivoire
_
_ _
va
!
!
_ _ _
_
Ca
! ! !
a
Sew _
!
!
Burkina Faso
!
!
!
!
! !
Ko
!
!
!
!
!
!
! ! ! !
_ _
_ _
Nig
_
Sierra
Leone
!
!
!
!
!
!
lt
Vo
"
"
Ban i
!
!
! !
!
!
!
ac
_ _
_
!
!
!
!
Bl
Freetown
!
!
_
!
lt a
Vo
!
!
_
_ _
i te
Conakry
Wh
!
!
Guinea
!
!
Sgou
!
!
!
!
! !Bamako
! !"
"!
"
_
_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
l ta
!
!
Mopti
Vo
GuineaBissau
_
_ _
_
_ _
l ta
!!
Vo
Ziguinchor
!
!
!
ko
!
!
s se t
_
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_
_ _
_
100'N
Kayes
i ng
!
_!
_
!
!
af
_ _ _
_ _
r
_ _
_ _N i g e _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _
_
_
_
!
_
_ _
!
!
La ke
Fa guibine
_
_ _
Mali
_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _
ia
The
Gambia
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Wa di Ta
m an ra
er
_
_
Senegal
! Thies
! ! ! ! ! !
!
!
!
! ! ! !
Diourbel
!!
!
! ! ! !
Mbour !
! Kaolack
!
!
!
!
!
"!
Banjul
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
ig
!
"! ! !
"
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
150'N
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Dakar
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
ga
!
!
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Mauritania
Se
!
Saint-Louis !
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Verde
erde
e
_
_
_ _
pe Verde
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_
_ _
_
_ _
_
_ _
_
_
_
_
_
_ _ _ _
_
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_
_ _ _ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _ _
_ _
_
_ _
_
_ _
_
_
_
_
_
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Val l e du T i le
ms i
at t
Kh
i
_ Wa d
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
200'N
_
_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
!
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_
_
_
_ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
o lt
Ato u
250'N
Po
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
50'E
_
_ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_
_
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
_
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _ _
h ar rha
d i Ir
_
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
Wa
Algeria
Libya
_
_ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
_ _
_
_s s_e t _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_
_ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
ra
an
as
200'E
ss
_ _
_ _ _
s et
a
iT
150'E
_ _
_ _
_
_
_
_
afa
iT
ad
_
_ _
_
_ _ _
Wa d
_ _
_
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
_
_
_ _ _
250'N
_
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
_
_ _
_ _
100'E
_
_
_
_
_
_ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _ _
_ ! ! !
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_
_ _
_
200'N
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
_ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
! !
! ! !
! !
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_ _
!
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!
!
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Sokoto
!
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! ! ! !
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!
!
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!
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! !
Gusau
!
! !
!
!
! ! ! !
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! ! !
!
!
_
_
! !
! !
!
!
! !
!
!
Kaduna
!
! ! ! !
! !
Benin
!
!
! !
! !
! ! !
"
"
!
! !
! !
"
" !Ede
!"
"" ! ! ! !
"
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Definition of indicator:
O experiences stress due to adverse hydroclimatic and hydrological
Vegetation
go
g oo
on
factors. Vegetative
drought appears due to gradual A
accumulation
of vegetative
li m
C
stress. The VHI (Vegetation Health Index) represents overall
vegetation health.
a
Gabon
150'E
"_ _
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_ _ _
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Map production:
Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS),
S a l 2010
University of Salzburg, Austria, October
o
ng
200'E
Tsh
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_ _
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" _
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Lo
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Kinshasa
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict
in the Sahel
"
"
"
"
"
"""
Kinshasa
Brazzaville
!
"
"
_ _
_ _ _
_ _
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Major !wadis
(non-perennial)
_ Major
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Cartographic information: g a
ko
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Scale (main map): 1:12,000,000 for DIN A3 prints
_ _ _
Reference system: Geographic coordinates
e m ba
Ik e lWorld
_ Datum:
!
!
Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84)
ga
_ _
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!
!
M a ri n
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< 100,000
_ (capitals) _ _ _ _
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Capitals
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African Republic
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Data sources:
Drought data: NESDIS-STAR (1982-2009)
a
_ _
Population
African Population Database (1980-2000); GPWv3 (2010)
I _data:
_PRIO-CSCW (1982-2005)
_
_
Conflict_data:
_
Background vector data: ESRI; FAO GeoNetwork;
GAUL; GRUMP (alpha)
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_ _ _
_ _
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_ [0 - 500] not represented in the map
_
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> 500 - 1,000
_ _
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> 1,000 - 2,500
Number of conflicts
[< -500] _
not_represented in the map
_ _
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_
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_ _ _ _
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Population trend
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! ! ! !
May - October (1982-2009)
! ! ! !"
! ! ! ! "
!
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! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Bamenda
" Onitsha
Porto-Novo
!
!
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! _
! ! !! ! ! ! ! !!!!! ! ! ! !
!
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_
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Umuahia
! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! !
Areas affected by drought
!
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! ! ! !!!!
! ! !!Bafoussam
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
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!
(May-Oct)
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Number
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_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
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100'N
50'N
00'
! ! ! ! ! !
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go
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am
! ! ! !
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Be n o u e
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_ _ _ _ _
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_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_ _
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150'N
_ _Arlit
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41
_ _ _
_ _ _
_
_
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! !
Map 9. Flooding
!
_ _
_
!
!
! 150'W
_
_
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
_
_ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
_
_
_ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
_ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
100'W
_ _
"
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!!
50'W
_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
_
_
00'
_
_
_
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_
_ _
_
_ _ _
_ _
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_
_
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_
_
_ _
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_
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_
_
_
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_ _
_
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_ _
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"
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! ! ! ! !
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! !
! !
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!
! !
!Vo!lt a !
! !
! !
00'
Scale: 1:5,000,000
150'W
42
50
km
100
250
100'W
km
1,000
500
50'W
00'
! ! !
! ! !
! ! ! ! !!
Cotonou ! La
! ! ! ! ! ! !!
!!
"
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! !"" !
!
!!
!
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Atlantic Ocean
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m
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_
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! ! ! !
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_ _
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_ _ _ _
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_
_ _
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_
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _
_
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100'N
_
_
ko
_ _
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_ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _
_
_ _
um
S al o
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Wa di Ta
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_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
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_
_
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_
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_
_
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ig
"
!!
_
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Senegal
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!
!
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"! ! ! ! ! ! !
"
!
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!
! ! ! !
Diourbel
!!
!
! ! ! !
Mbour !
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!
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T h e Banjul !!!
Gambia
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
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_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
150'N
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Dakar
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
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ga
!
!
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Mauritania
Se
!
Saint-Louis !
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Verde
erde
e
_
_
_ _
pe Verde
_
_
_
_
_ _
_
_ _ _
_
_ _ _
_
_ _ _
_
_ _ _
_
_
_
_
_
_
_ _ _ _
_
_ _ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_
_ _ _ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _ _
_ _
_
_ _
_
_ _
_
_
_
_
_
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
Val l e du T i le
ms i
at t
Kh
i
_ Wa d
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
200'N
_
_ _ _
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Po
_ _ _
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150'E
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African Republic
_ _ _
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C ro ss
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26
-_35!
!
_
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!
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!
!
_ _ _
bi
_ Major
_
_rivers (perennial)
C
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Waterbodies
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lo
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_ _ _
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iri
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r in
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ko
Cartographic information: g a
ko
_ _
r
Scale (main map): 1:12,000,000 for DIN A3 prints a
_ _ _
Reference system: Geographic coordinates
e m ba
Ik e lWorld
_ Datum:
!
!
Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84)
ga
_ _
_
!
!
M a ri n
B u si ra
_ R_u k i
_
!
i
n
Co
_ _
_
ri _ _ _
go _ _
i
op or
o C on
Map production:
Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS),
S a l 2010
University of Salzburg, Austria, October
o
ng
200'E
Tsh
u ap
_ _
_ _
!
" _
_ ! "
!
_ _ _ ! _
_
!
Lo
a
Zaire
Kinshasa
"
"
"
"
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict
in the Sahel
"
""
" Kinshasa
Brazzaville
!
Pointe Noire
"
"
_ _
_ _ _
_ _
_
_
!
!
!
It
Major !wadis
(non-perennial)
go
ng
el
Co
CILSS
!
!
! countries
!
!
!
im
on g o
_
_
< 100,000
_ (capitals) _ _ _ _
_ _
!
!
!
Capitals
_ _
150'E
Dakar
!
100'E
_ _
> 500,000 - 1,000,000
_
_
> 250,000 - _500,000
_
> 100,000 - 250,000 (CILSS)
!
!
i)
! !
> 1,000,000
"_
"
! ! ! !
! !
ng
_
!
_ _!
!
!
11 - !25!
!
G ir
ng u i (U
ba ng
O ub a
ng
Co
Gabon
"_
"
ba
6 - 10
_
Congo
Definition of indicator:
o
O the estimated areas affected by major flooding based on DFO gflood
Map shows
go
on
event data. o
A li
C
m
_
_ _ _ _
"
(U
_
_
_
_
G ir i
in d
_ _
_
_ _
_ _ _ _
_
bo
_
_ _
Data sources:
_ _ _
Flood data: DFO (1985-2009)
a
_ _
Population
African Population Database (1980-2000); GPWv3 (2010)
I _data:
_PRIO-CSCW (1985-2005)
_
_
Conflict_data:
_
Background vector data: ESRI; FAO GeoNetwork; GAUL; GRUMP (alpha)
ue
oo
Og
N g > 5,000
ok
o
_ _ _
_ _
_
_ _
_
_ _ _ _
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_ _
_ _
_ _
gh
_
Libreville _ _ _
"
"
!! _ _
_
_ _ _
_ _
_
Sa n
Equatorial
Guinea _
ja
ui
!"" Bangui
2-5
ng
Bangui
1-2
_
_ _ _
_ ad-Duayn
!
!
_
_ _
_ _
_
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
Central
_" _
"_
_
_ _
_ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
_ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
! !
50'E
!
!
at
_ _Sarh
!
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!
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!
!
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!
! ! _
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
_ ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !Makurdi
!
!
_ _
!
!
! ! ! K! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Cameroon
!
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!
!
!
!
!
!
! ! ! ! ! !
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Iwo
!! !
! Ado
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!!
!
!!
!!
!!
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Ngaoundr
Ife !
!!
Ilesha
!
!
!
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Abomey
! !Akure
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
"
!"
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
_
!! ! ! ! ! "
!! Owo
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
" ! ! ! Ikire
!
!
!
! ! !!
la ! ! !
!! ! ! !
!
!
!
! ! ! ! ! ! !Ondo
! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! Abeokuta
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! !
_
_
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !!Ikorodu
!
Enugu
Cotonou ! Lagos !
!
!
!
!
_
_
_
!
! ! !!
" ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !!
! ! !!
"
" !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
"
"
"
" Benin
"
"
! ! ! !
Januar y - December (1985-2009)
! ! ! !"
! ! ! ! "
!
!
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Bamenda
" Onitsha
Porto-Novo
!
!
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! _
! ! !! ! ! ! ! !!!!! ! ! ! !
!
!
!
_ _
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Umuahia
! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! !
Population trend
Areas affected by flood
!
!
! ! !"
! ! ! !!!!
! ! !!Bafoussam
! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
"!
Warri
!
Ekpene
!
! ! ! ! ! ! ! Ikot
! ! ! ! ! N!o
! !
! !! ! ! _ ! !
Number of flood events
Changes in population numbers
un
!
"
!
!
"! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! Aba
! !"
a
g
"
!
!
!
!
[< -500] _
not_represented in the map
11 - 12
! ! ! ! !"
!
na
! !
! ! ! !"
!
"
Calabar ! !
Sa
Port Harcourt
"
Bertoua
_
_
_
_
!
! ! ! ! !
!
!!!!!
!
!
_
_ _ _
_
9 - 10
!
!
!
> -500 - 0
!
! !
! ! ! ! !
_ _
_
!
!
!
!
!
! ! ! ! !
! Douala
ga
"
"
"
- 8_
_ _7 _
_ [0 - 500] not represented in the map
!
! ! ! !
Malabo
!a r r a
"
"
"
S
!
_
_
_
!
!
!
!!
!
D ja
Yaound!
Equatorial
_ 5-6
_ _ _ !
!
!
> 500 - 1,000
_
_
_
_
_
Guinea
!
3-4
_ _ _
> 1,000 - 2,500
!
Sa
ne
_
_
_
!
_ _ _
!
_ _
!
_ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _
Chad
za
_ _ _
_N'Djamena
_ _
"
"
_ _
!
_
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_
Garoua
ha
_
_
_ _
_
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_ _ _
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_
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lG
!
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_
_
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u_e
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! ! ! ! ! !
e! n
! ! ! ! ! !
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! !
Damaturu
!_
!
! !
!
!
! ! ! !
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! !
! ! !
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! !
!
!
_ _ _
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! !
Bauchi
!
_
! ! !
! !
! !
! ! ! !
!
!
!
" !
!
"
!!
! ! !
Nigeria
_
_
_
_
Jos
! !
!
Zinder
!! !
!
!
!
ll i
_
_
_ _
_ _
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! Katsina
!!! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! !
! ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! !
Kano
"! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! !
"
"
! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! !
! ! ! !
! ! ! ! ! !
Zaria
" ! ! ! ! ! ! !
"
!"
!
! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
Kaduna
!
! ! ! !
"
!
!
" ! ! ! !
"
!
Oshogbo
Ni
!
! !
! ! ! !
! ! ! !
! !
! ! ! !
Maradi
! !
!
_!
! ! !
_
_
! ! ! !
Kainji
La ke
Benin
!""
! !
Sokoto
!
! ! !
!
C on g
! ! ! !
_ _
50'N
"
"
! !
! !
! ! !
! !
Di
_ _
_ _ _
l
i Te
li B a s a
00'
_ _ _ ! !
Niamey
_
!
! !
! !
di
d i H aw a ch
am
ad
Ou h
ad
hr
_
!
Wa
Wa
_
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_
_ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
_
Ba
_ _
_ _
_ _
_ _ _
_ _
Be n o u e
za
l 'A
Va l l e d
e
i B o s so
_
_ _ _
ma
u
W a d i Te g o
_ _
_
100'N
ou
ak
_
_ _
_ _ _Agadez
_
!
!
_ _ _ _ _
_
_
_
Niger
_
_ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_
_ _
_
_
150'N
_ _Arlit
!_
_!
43
_ _ _
_ _ _
_
_
400'W
350'W
300'W
250'W
A toui
200'W
200'N
W
ad
iK
h a tt
_
_
_
_
150'N
_
!
Mauritania
Nouakchott !
Cape
Ve r d e
Da
"
"
_
_
_
_
The
Gamb
_
_
_
_
_
!
50'N
Dakar
" !
"
"
!
!
! !
!
!
The
Gambia
!
!
Diourbel
Senegal
u
!
! S al o
!Kaolack
!
!
Kayes
!
!
Banjul !!! !
bi
Gam
!
00'
!
!
al
Mbour !
n eg
!
!
Thies
Saint-Louis
Gui
Bis
100'N
Serre Kunda
!
!
!Ziguinchor
!
!
!
Bissau
C ape Verd e
!
!
!
!
!
50'S
GuineaBissau
50
"
"
100'S
"
Freetown
"
"
150'S
44
!
!
"
"
"
!
!
wa
300'W
!
!
Ghana
Takoradi
km
0
Kumasi
! "
" !
"
350'W
Sierra Leone
100
400'W
Cte
d'Ivoire
Abidjan
Se
450'W
km
50
Conakry
100
!
!
Praia
km
Guinea
!
50
100
250'W
200'W
150'W
100'W
50'W
00'
50'E
Population trend
>1-2m
Mauritania
> 2- 3 m
> -500 - 0
>4-5m
> 1,000,000
"
>3-4m
Nouakchott
"
"
"
"
500,000 - 1,000,000
!
!
!
!
!
!
Dakar Capitals
CILSS countries
> 5,000
Niger
Dakar
Senegal
T h e Banjul
Gambia
Data sources:
Elevation data: CGIAR-CSI (SRTM v4)
Population data: African Population Database (1970-2000); GPWv3 (2010)
Background vector data: ESRI; FAO GeoNetwork; GAUL; GRUMP (alpha)
Cartographic information:
Scale (main map): 1:15,000,000 for DIN A3 prints
Scale (inserts): 1:5,500,000 for DIN A3 prints
Reference system: Geographic coordinates
Datum: World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84)
Definition of indicator:
Map shows the areas vulnerable to sea level rise based on SRTM v4 global
digital elevation data.
Map production:
Niamey
Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS),
University of Salzburg, Austria, October 2010
Bamako
150'N
-5 - 1 m
200'N
Ouagadougou
Bissau
Burkina Faso
GuineaBissau
100'N
Guinea
Benin
Conakry
Abuja
Freetown
Sierra Leone
Cte d'Ivoire
Togo
Nigeria
Ghana
Yamoussoukro
Liberia
Monrovia
Porto-Novo
Lom
50'N
Accra
Malabo
Equatorial
Guinea
Atlantic Ocean
Equatorial
Guinea
! Abomey
!!
! !
!
!
asi
hana
Volta
! Ashiaman
! !
!
!
"
"
! "
Togo
"
"
Benin
!
!
Cotonou
"
"
!Ikorodu
!
!
Lagos !
! !"
"
! !
"
!
Ondo
50'S
Owo
Enugu
!"" ! !
!
!
Nigeria
! Onitsha
! !
s
!
ros
! "
" !
!!
!
!Port!Harcourt
! !
"
"
"
Benin
"
"
at
s
i na
A la
"
Porto-Novo
Lom
Accra
Warri
di
"
"
Umuahia
! !
Ikot Ekpene
!
!
"
"
! "
! ! !
Aba
!
Calabar
"
"
Cameroon
_
!
Malabo
150'W
100'W
50'W
St. Helena
00'
50'E
150'S
Lake
Volta
100'S
!
!
Okene
"
"
"
! "
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Efon !
Alaye
Ife
Ibadan
Ibadan
!
!
!
!
" !
!Ikire !
!
!
!"
"
! Akure
! !
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
! Akure
!"" Abeokuta
! !
!
!
Nig e r
Lake Vol t
00'
!!
!
45
Figure 5. Frequency and land area covered by flooding in areas that have experienced 9-10 floods
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1985
Coverage (in %)
Year
Figure 6. Frequency and land area covered by flooding in areas that have experienced 11-12 floods
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
Coverage (in %)
Year
46
In combination with volatile global commodity markets, exchange rate fluctuations and availability of
food aid, such drops in production risk compounding the rise in the price of staples such as rice, corn
and wheat.123 Rises in food prices affect the poorest
and most vulnerable population groups the most,
and can lead to suffering and social unrest.
47
! !
! ! ! _
Agadir
"
! !
"
!
! !
! ! !
Canary Islands
_
!
!
!
_ _
_
_ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _ _
_ _ _
_ _
100'W
50'W
_ _00'
! ! 150'W
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " _" _ " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " _" " " " " " " " " "
!
Map 11. Areas!affected
by the most extreme changes in individual climate indicators
!
!
Kh
200'N
Mauritania
pe Verde
ga
ia
!
!
lly
va
Ca
Ko
Sa
00'
C a p e Ve rd e
Scale: 1:5,000,000
150'W
250
100'W
500
50'W
!
!
km
1.000
km
100
Praia
50
!
!
48
50'N
dr
an
ss
am
nd
Ba
lta
o
kV
ac
Bl
lta
Vo
Burkina Faso
!
i te
Wh
GuineaBissau
lta
Vo
olt
in g
ko
af
lt a
100'N
er
Mali
ig
Senegal
The
Gambia
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
A
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "
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_Congo
Description of map:
O most affected by each of the four identified climate-related indicators
Map gives an overview of areas
go
g oo
on
A li
(precipitation, temperature, drought and flood).
C
m
Gabon
iri
Co
ng
_
Lu lo ng
100'E
150'E
Lo
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ki
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k
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ng
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uap
250'N
!
_ _
ga
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el
a
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!
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Pointe Noire
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Brazzaville
Kinshasa
ad-Duayn
!
!
_
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_ _ _ ! _
Zaire
"
"
"
"
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict
in the Sahel
"
go
_ _ _
_ _ _
_
Map production:
Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS),
S a l o 2010
University of Salzburg, Austria, October
200'E
on
Waterbodies
p o ri
r in
ok
Cartographic information: g a
or
Scale (main map): 1:12,000,000 for DIN A3 prints a
_
Reference system: Geographic coordinates
em ba
Ik e l World
Datum:
Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 84)
Ru
50'E
ue
oo
Og
bo
Libreville
G ir
_ _ _
_ _
_ _
Data sources:
_
Climate-related indicators: CRU TS 3.0 (1970-2006); NESDIS-STAR (1982-2009); DFO a(1985-2009)
_
Population data: African Population Database (1970-2000); GPWv3 (2010)
I _ _
Conflict data: PRIO-CSCW (1970-2005)
Background vector data: ESRI; FAO GeoNetwork; GAUL; GRUMP (alpha)
gh
ko
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Equatorial
Guinea
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Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict
in the Sahel
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Brazzaville
Kinshasa
51
nor provides an analysis of the underlying socioeconomic factors, it enables the identification of
those areas that have already been cumulatively
impacted by the four climate indicators, which are
of specific interest for targeted adaptation policies
and programmes.
UN Photo/John Isaac
Changes in rainfall and occurrences of drought and flooding have a direct impact on crop yields and food
supplies, as well as income for those who depend on natural resources for their livelihoods. Prolonged drought
combined with a locust invasion led to a major food crisis in Niger starting in 2005
52
53
UN Photo/Christopher Herwig
Urbanization, partly due to rural-urban migratory flows, is a defining trend in the region. Monrovia, Liberias
capital city, houses approximately 880,000 people. It is estimated that it is home to 20-30 per cent of the
countrys population
54
UNU/Julie Snorek
The inhabitants of the town of Abalak, situated just 185 km north of the official agropastoral dividing
line, are primarily former herders who do not have the means to travel to Libya or Nigeria to find work,
and eke out a living in town. As traditional stewards of the land, these former pastoralists describe the
reasons contributing to their exodus as: significant variability of rainfall, the disappearance of the vitamin-rich grasses that once supported
their livestock, irregular distribution of
pasture and the increasing cost of the
cereals required to supplement their
animals insufficient milk production.140
55
UNU/Julie Snorek
Due to a lack of
available pasture
during droughts,
herders in Niger
are forced to come
to towns to buy
imported fodder.
Merchants come
from as far away as
Nigeria, Togo, and
Benin to sell fodder
at inflated prices to
desperate herders
56
2005
NASA/Jesse Allen
1974
Lake Faguibine in Mali experienced a severe decline in water levels between 1974 and 2005, due to extreme
drought conditions and increased water use upstream. For 21 years during this period, the lake was
completely dry
57
58
59
UNU/Anika Rissalamine
Similar conflicts has been observed in neighbouring Nigeria, where Fulani herders from the north are
remaining in the south for longer periods, or even becoming sedentary. This has led to increased pressures on farmlands and local resources, resulting in violent conflicts with local farming hosts in the south.183
During periods of drought, it is common to find large numbers of dead animals in pastoral areas. In such
times, pastoralists often move into agricultural areas to find water and pasture for their herds, leading to
conflict over land and local resources
60
farmers have become livestock-keepers or fisherfarmers, and some herders have moved to southern
pastoral lands to take up sedentary farming. These
changes have placed groups in direct competition
with each other over land and water. The farming
Sonike and the herding Toucouleur communities
in Mali, for example, have long cooperated in
trading manure and grain. When the Toucouleur
established a village in the region, the Soninke also
started raising livestock. Reduced rainfall increased
competition for feedstock and the greater number
of animals started crowding farming land. There has
61
62
UNEP/Dennis Hamro-Drotz
63
UNU/Julie Snorek
In marginal pastoral areas, some herders have begun farming the land in order to survive, such as here in
Kjigari, Niger
64
Burkina Fasos programme proposes a regional approach to securing pastoral zones and mitigating
farmer and herder conflicts over land;
Cape Verdes programme points out the need to address increasingly frequent water-related
conflicts.206
65
UN Photo/John Isaac
66
with regards to ethnicity or gender. Rather, adaptation policies should address the disproportionate
impacts that climate change, migration and conflict have on vulnerable groups, and meaningfully
integrate their perspectives and participation in
these policies.213 Gender inequalities related to
climate change impacts, migration and conflict
are discussed in further detail in Box 6.
In sum, adaptation policies that reduce livelihood
vulnerability, promote alternatives, improve the
quality and quantity of natural resources, and
decrease resource competition can reduce forced
migratory pressures and minimize the threat of
conflict.214 Adaptation measures that are blind to
such dynamics may, on the other hand, unknowingly aggravate certain situations.215 Burkina Faso
provides a positive example of the integration of
conflict management considerations into national
adaptation policies, as discussed in Case Study 8.
Box 6. Gender inequalities related to climate change impacts, migration and conflict
Gender inequalities, such as womens lack of access to financial resources and limited involvement in
decision-making, tend to compound the impacts of changing climatic conditions on their livelihoods
and increase their vulnerability.216 These inequalities are unfortunately not reflected in the majority of
adaptation policies and programmes.
Climate change: Both slow and sudden-onset disasters, which are recognized to be increasing in
frequency in the Sahel, have significant impacts on women. Within the countries in this study, women
make up 50 per cent of the agriculture labour-force.217 Womens high dependence on fertile land and
regular rainfall for agriculture make them vulnerable to changes in precipitation, temperature and the
occurrence of sudden-onset disasters, such as floods. Given their lack of access to financial resources,
such as credit or formal land holdings, women are less able to recover from floods or poor harvests.
Migration: Women are more likely to stay behind as men migrate in search of alternative income and
seasonal employment. This out-migration of men can give women greater decision-making power,218
but also bring additional difficulties. Due to social taboos, women may not be able to access the
same tools or resources as their male counterparts, or participate in certain agricultural tasks. Thus, rural
women can become more vulnerable to poverty when males migrate.
Conflict: Conflict places women in danger of direct violence, including intimidation, sexual violence
and abduction.219 They also experience indirect harm.220 In many countries, for example, neither traditional nor modern law permit women to inherit land or other assets when their husbands or male
family members die.
Adaptation programming: Women are not systematically involved, nor considered, in climate change
adaptation planning. Further, women are less able to access the financial and technical resources
made available for adaptation programming.221 Despite their traditional role in collecting water and
fuel, and securing food for their families, adaptation plans rarely consider womens rich knowledge of
natural resources.
67
Strengthening national capacities for early warning and prevention, in order to ensure food
security and improved access to water resources in the context of climate change: This project
looks at adaptation best practices, with a particular focus on agriculture, forestry and livestock.
A community-based adaptation
programme has been set up in
each of the countrys three climate zones that face particular
challenges related to changes
in climate: Mouhoun in the west,
Namentenga in the east and
Oudalan in the north.
UNEP/Dennis Hamro-Drotz
Modifying the development process to address risks and opportunities associated with climate
change: This project aims to build capacity for long-term development planning with significant
focus on local governments and the municipalities right to request and manage a budget. As part
of this project, a simulation study is being conducted to determine the potential risks from climate
change for agriculture, livestock, energy, housing, natural disasters, health, forestry and land
degradation using a small scale of analysis of 25-50 km2. Based on the multi-sector simulations, an
analysis of vulnerability, evaluation of cost of adaptation, and economic impact will be conducted
for each sector.
Lessons learned in the field will be instrumental to the development of Burkina Fasos new NAPA in 2012.
68
69
UN Photo/John Isaac
In an effort to prevent the desert from reaching fertile land, eucalyptus saplings, resistant to extreme
conditions, have been planted to stabilize sand dunes
energy, and has adopted a new strategic guideline on the Reduction of Vulnerability to Climate
Change in West Africa.223
Policy partnerships for climate change adaptation,
however, need to be broadened to involve organizations with specific expertise in natural resources
issues. River basin authorities in the region most
notably the Senegal River Basin, Niger Basin Authority
and the Lake Chad Basin Commission can have
an important role in strengthening adaptation governance and capacity. These authorities have long
promoted activities that are central to adaptation
plans, including diversified income-generating
activities, improved water management and the
modernization of agricultural techniques.
70
6.1Conclusions
1) Climatic change trends can be observed over
the last 40 years in the Sahel in temperature,
rainfall, and occurrence of flooding across the
study region. In addition, the recurrence of
drought and the potential severe impacts of
sea-level rise are increasing livelihood vulnerability:
2) Changes in climatic conditions are exacerbating issues linked to the availability of natural
resources essential to livelihoods in the region,
as well as food insecurity. Along with important
social, economic and political factors, this can
lead to migration and conflict:
71
considered as traditional adaptation strategies to climate variability in the region, offering opportunities for trade and the exchange
of ideas. Herders typically graze their livestock
in the North during the wet season and move
South during the dry months.
seasonal migration patterns of many farmers, herders and fishermen in the region
are increasingly being replaced by a more
permanent southward shift.
Urbanization, partly due to rural-urban migratory flows, is also a defining trend in the
region. While unmanaged urbanization can
increase the vulnerability of new migrants,
72
Migration movements are principally confined to the region generally along a northsouth axis rather than from the region to
other parts of the world.
ties into adaptation policies can help prioritize the most vulnerable areas for targeted
adaptation programming and investment of
adaptation funding. Identifying priority areas
for investment is particularly timely given the
large amounts of donor funding becoming
available to address this issue in Africa.
6.2Recommendations
1) Conduct follow-up field assessments in
the hotspots identified in this study, using a
livelihoods approach. Livelihoods provide
a clear stepping stone between climate
change and conflict risk, as well as between
climate change and migration. A livelihoods
approach is therefore well suited for follow-up
field assessments that should determine how
resource availability is changing, how livelihoods
are being affected, and if incidences of conflict
or migration are increasing. In order to better
73
be increased, diversified and commercialized, thereby creating local job and market
opportunities. One example is organically
produced cash crops that can be sold for
a premium on international markets.
74
The
National
Indicators
75
76
Annexes
Annex 1. Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Annex 2. Glossary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Annex 3. Map methodologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Annex 4. Migration data used (2000-2002). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Annex 5. Summary of datasets used. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Annex 6. Land area and population affected by changes in the four climate indicators used . . . . . 90
Annex 7. Population vulnerable to sea-level rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Annex 8. Adapting to change: Lessons from local best practices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
Annex 9. References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Annex 10. Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
77
Annex 1. Acronyms
ACMAD
AGRHYMET
AMCEN
AZN
Degrees Celsius
CDM
CEN-SAD
CILSS
Comit permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Scheresse dans le Sahel (the Permanent
Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel)
EACH-FOR
ECA-WA
ECOWAS
EU
European Union
FAO
GDP
GEF
IDMC
IDPs
IGAD
INSAH
IPCC
IOM
ISDR
IUCN
km Kilometre
km
Square kilometre
LDC
m Metre
mm Millimetre
NAPA
NASA
NCDC
NGO
Non-governmental organization
78
NOAA
OCHA
OECD
PRIO-CSCW
Peace Research Institute Oslo Centre for the Study of Civil War
REDD
UN
United Nations
UNDP
UNEP
UNFCCC
UNU
WAEMU
WMO
Z_GIS
79
Annex 2. Glossary
Adaptation
Climate change
Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due
to natural variability or as a result of human activity. (IPCC, 2007)
Conflict
Environment
The environment is the sum of all external conditions affecting the life,
development and survival of an organism. In the context of this report,
environment refers to the physical conditions that affect natural resources
(climate, geology, hazards) and the ecosystem services that sustain them
(e.g. carbon, nutrient, and hydrological cycles). (UNEP, 2009)
Ecosystem services
Food insecurity
A situation that exists when people do not have secure access to sufficient
amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth, development and an
active and healthy life. Food insecurity may be caused by the unavailability
of food, insufficient purchasing power, inappropriate distribution, or
inadequate use of food at the household level. (IPCC, 2007)
Food security
A situation that exists when people have secure access to sufficient amounts
of safe and nutritious food for normal growth, development and an active
and healthy life. (IPCC, 2007)
Forced migration
Livelihood
80
Livelihood security
Migration
Natural resources
Resilience
Scarcity
Vulnerability
81
Data pre-processing
DOWNLOAD AND CONVERSION (DATA FORMAT)
As an initial step the datasets were downloaded and, where necessary, converted and re-scaled to a
data format and range that enabled the integration and subsequent analysis of the datasets in a GIS
environment.
SPATIAL REFERENCE/GEOREFERENCING
In the next step a spatial reference was defined for all datasets: the World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS
84) was set to define both the coordinate frame (geographic coordinates) and the dates of the datasets.
OBSERVATION PERIOD AND SEASONAL FOCUS
Based on the constraints of the datasets, an individual observation period was defined for each of the
climate-related drivers. Moreover, as livelihoods in the target region are often highly dependent on natural
resource availability, which in turn is (among other factors) also a function of rainfall and temperature,
the rainy season was chosen as a critical season to be observed in the target region. Consequently,
the seasonal focus for the observation of driver 1 (precipitation and temperature) and driver 2 (drought)
was set to the months from May to October in order to cover not only the actual rainy season, but also
a few weeks before and after the rainy season.
82
ated to increase processing time. Building on a critical VHI threshold (VHI values < 35 indicate
severe drought conditions), the datasets were reclassified in a subsequent step. Based on these
reclassified layers (0: VHI > 35; 1: VHI < 35), finally, the number of drought affected seasons
was calculated for each cell (16 x 16 km) for the period 1985 to 2009.
DFO - FLOOD DATA
As the data is provided in Mapinfo Interchange Format on the DFO website, the first step was
to convert the data to a common vector format. In a next step a subset of the data was
created, showing the major flood events in the region of interest as polygons. Finally, a net
of artificial cells was created in order to calculate the number of flood events per cell for the
years 1985 to 2009.
CSI-CGIAR SRTM v4 ELEVATION DATA
As the SRTM v4 global digital elevation model (GDEM) is provided in 5 degree resolution tiles,
the first step after downloading the tiles - was to mosaic the tiles covering the target region.
APD & GPWv3 - POPULATION DATA
Population count data was acquired from different sources. Data from 1960 to 2000 was
acquired from the UNEP African Population Database (APD) website, while data from 1990 to
2010 was downloaded from the Gridded Population of the World (Version 3) portal. To determine if the GPWv3 data could be utilized to update the available time-series of population
data as provided by UNEP-APD, Pearsons correlation of both datasets (UNEP-APD and GPWv3)
was calculated for three larger test areas. Following this approach the overall population trend
was calculated for two periods: 1) 1970-2010 and 2) 1980-2010.
PRIO-CSCW CONFLICT SITE DATA
After the dataset was downloaded from the PRIO-CSCW website, a subset of the data for the
region of interest was created. Then, based on the given centre-point coordinates and the
radius variable, the estimated spatial extent of the conflicts in the target area were calculated.
In order to have additional information on the number of conflicts a dissect (number of overlaps) was calculated based on the subset.
Cartographic representation
Following analysis of the data, the resulting geospatial information layers were cartographically refined in order to obtain a more intuitive and appealing characterization of the results,
making both interpretation and communication easier. Depending on the quality and format
of the dataset different approaches were applied:
Angular polygon layers were smoothed making use of Bezier interpolation techniques.
Coarse grids, such as the temperature or precipitation trend dataset (0.5 degree resolution),
were converted to point layers in order to apply spatial interpolation techniques (ordinary
kriging) to create a continuous surface of finer resolution (i.e. 0.1 degree resolution). Where
necessary, a low-pass filter was utilized to further smooth the entire raster. In a next step the
refined grids were re-converted to polygons. Finally, the polygons were smoothed making
use of Bezier interpolation techniques.
Finally, where necessary, representation tools were utilized to enhance the visual
representation of the resulting geospatial information layers.
83
BFA
CPV
TCD
CIV
GMB
GHA
GIN
GNB
LBR
MLI
73069
66
61103
88
29828
56533
40
137
4231
2701
11
154
977421
204
69218
148791
93
486
11136
Cape
Verde
(CPV)
71
4596
22
1658
29
9890
4480
437
37
335
Chad
(TCD)
56
3612
2459
21
2448
3893
49
291
Cte
dIvoire
(CIV)
11584
34847
20
27
9123
9542
12
4751
714
Gambia
(GMB)
41
2671
422
2518
2625
911
12
196
Ghana
(GHA)
8608
93320
112
305648
157
83236
72
21655
6230
Guinea
(GIN)
1008
65176
66
138550
38362
29618
4844
70689
4812
GuineaBissau
(GNB)
115
7448
788
14
1024
17130
6107
7326
30
548
Liberia
(LBR)
52
3381
10
753
13
4485
3321
249
2965
437921
13
183
486604
13078
82403
162921
111
4286
Mauritania
(MRT)
139
8981
12
904
5566
900
8838
570
30
661
Niger
(NER)
14680
138293
4110
130387
76
25611
53625
35
177
4013
Nigeria
(NGA)
29911
26572
12134
8913
158
53486
25885
72
5207
1937
Senegal
(SEN)
215
13908
206
54
3992
98608
23896
13594
9829
529
1017
Sierra
Leone
(SLE)
65
4217
11
793
1574
4724
4147
17285
310
Togo
(TGO)
25826
19233
22
1650
29
9867
18953
13
545
1418
Total
98037
937245
2122281
175120
364122
607710
17060
125905
38098
Burkina
Faso
(BFA)
Mali
(MLI)
84
1056 16996
MRT
NER
NGA
SEN
SLE
TGO
Europe
USA
Rest
of
Africa
Rest
of the
World
Overall total
Benin
(BEN)
585
9682
159683
1497
127
71780
24823
2717
59272
21066
576332
Burkina
Faso
(BFA)
132
10426
7583
3793
17
717
27996
4303
35320
48154
1348656
Cape
Verde
(CPV)
19
11
2891
12583
103
97315
27606
30238
7320
199644
Chad
(TCD)
57
727
18321
163
153
8490
766
242941
18870
303331
Cte
dIvoire
(CIV)
209
4782
3036
314
36
94
76038
8076
5110
8376
176692
Gambia
(GMB)
4367
7945
26
20348
6178
1347
2082
51703
Ghana
(GHA)
222
4569
125052
2345
633
37898
114004
69995
27089
57030
957883
Guinea
(GIN)
3274
34
4891
109109
35950
307
27930
6741
20261
22020
583647
GuineaBissau
(GNB)
1271
3316
32628
12
64
39752
777
5554
4317
128228
Liberia
(LBR)
12909
121
2171
47
9563
41136
2361
5165
85758
Mali
(MLI)
8073
33673
91150
23642
945
2675
75752
7157
87250
57893
1578695
Mauritania (MRT)
12068
39984
69
56
19653
2525
9909
6016
116888
Niger
(NER)
162
59043
1379
78
16719
13040
2425
14933
17983
496773
Nigeria
(NGA)
102
41379
1225
1024
18695
185001
143054 422124
64397
1041284
817
3326
357
249
181380
12119
55815
18934
479515
Senegal
40670
(SEN)
Sierra
Leone
(SLE)
2605
138
49
29410
21594
2681
4796
94420
Togo
(TGO)
124
1542
77353
452
21
23558
3490
22495
7709
214302
587594
237318
41446
149632
974053
Total
54923 107668
85
Data sources
This table presents the actual datasets and sources that were utilized in the mapping process.
datasets are based on climate stations sparse net of stations in the region of interest
available time-series ends in 2006 up-to-date climate data not available
86
based on measurements of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) onboard the
NOAA satellite objective, up-to-date and reliable data source
vertical accuracy (< 9 m) is not sufficient to delineate small changes in sea level (cm)
AFRICAN POPULATION DATABASE (APD) GRIDDED AFRICAN POPULATION DATA
The population figures of the UNEP African Population Database (APD) represent estimated totals for the
standardized years 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 (10-year intervals). Data sources vary by country
(censuses, national statistical offices, etc.). The African Population Database provides population count
and population density information at a spatial resolution of 2.5 arc minutes.
87
data is only available for the African continent (no weakness within the context of this project, however
could be a weakness for other projects)
accuracy of the data as it is partly census-based and there is a lack of available census information
in the region of interest
the 1990 population and population density estimates are missing from all countries in Africa
accuracy of the data (data is partly census-based lacking census data in the region of interest)
PRIO-CSCW CONFLICT SITE DATA
The Uppsala Conflict Data Project (UCDP) defines armed conflict as a contested incompatibility that
concerns either government or territory or both, where the use of armed force between two parties results
in at least 25 battle-related deaths. The PRIO-CSCW conflict site dataset is an extension to the UCDP/
PRIO Armed Conflicts Dataset that provides coordinates for the conflict zones and lists of countries in
which the conflicts were located from 1946 to 2005. Following the procedure of earlier versions of the
UCDP/PRIO data, the conflict zones are coded with centre-point coordinates, plus a radius variable to
denote the estimated spatial extent of the conflicts.
Strengths of the dataset:
global dataset
time-series enables retrospective change analysis (available time-series: 1946-2005)
data reflects the estimated area affected by conflict (radius variable)
freely available at PRIO-CSCW website
88
areas affected by conflict are represented by an estimated conflict radius high degree of
generalization
89
90
Area
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
-
< -100 mm
abs.
(km)
9,830
9,830
Area
Area
55.21
100.00
51.33
1.50
58.69
71.46
51.20
57.93
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
8,288
52.66
450
100.00
1,396
13.01
11
0.79
5,281
34.66
443
12.45
371
2.39
16,240
21.68
> -50 50 mm
There are no zones in the CILSS countries with a change in precipitation of less than -100 millimeters (mm),
or more than 250 millimeters (mm).
Note:
Area
abs.
(km)
104,033
316,797
2,808
473,230
179,413
409,673
29,942
1,515,896
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Chad
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Senegal
total
abs.
(km)
-
Area
Seasonal precipitation trend (1970-2006). Area and population of the precipitation zones per country (CILSS countries)
37.82
24.81
8.22
37.61
17.18
34.42
15.13
30.22
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
5,570
35.39
3,448
32.14
78
5.73
9,086
59.63
1,635
45.96
5,950
38.32
843
7.74
26,610
35.52
> 50 100 mm
91
abs.
(km)
96,045
149,072
354,935
600,053
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Chad
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Senegal
total
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Chad
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Senegal
total
Area
abs.
(km)
10,565
69,190
79,755
Area
7.52
11.85
33.99
11.96
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
73
0.68
71
0.46
89
2.51
233
0.31
3.84
5.50
1.59
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
439
2.79
4,767
31.28
5,206
6.95
-0.5 0.0C
abs.
(km)
8,020
8,020
Area
abs.
(km)
118,215
3,221
305,599
223,406
10,083
660,524
Area
0.77
0.16
> 2.0C
42.98
78.96
24.28
18.77
5.09
13.17
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
1
0.04
1
0.00
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
6,875
43.68
425
94.59
5,542
36.37
9,262
59.65
123
1.13
22,227
29.67
53.18
21.04
38.50
91.63
48.97
26.88
29.12
76.73
89.15
47.79
total population
of country (thsd.)
15,739
450
10,730
1,428
1,366
15,238
3,558
15,528
10,881
74,918
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
8,415
53.47
24
5.30
7,883
73.47
731
51.21
455
33.29
3,994
26.21
2,391
67.19
6,208
39.98
6,595
60.62
36,696
48.98
total area of
country (km)
275,049
4,079
1,277,143
10,862
34,182
1,258,413
1,044,184
1,190,209
197,926
5,292,047
abs.
(km)
146,270
858
491,744
9,953
16,737
338,226
304,055
913,228
176,445
2,397,516
Area
abs.
(km)
689,345
909
17,445
396,362
377,230
53,607
11,398
1,546,296
Area
Seasonal temperature trend (1970-2006). Area and population of the temperature zones per country (CILSS countries)
53.98
8.37
51.04
31.50
36.13
4.50
5.76
30.82
Population
abs.
%
(thsd.)
2,769
25.81
721
50.47
934
68.42
867
5.69
1,084
30.47
35
0.22
4,294
39.46
10,704
14.29
92
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Chad
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Senegal
total
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Chad
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Senegal
total
total area of
country (km)
275,049
4,079
1,277,143
10,862
34,182
1,258,413
1,044,184
1,190,209
197,926
5,292,047
total population
of country (thsd.)
15,739
450
10,730
1,428
1,366
15,238
3,558
15,528
10,881
74,918
As only 0.000037 per cent of the area of the CILSS countries have been affected by more than 15 drought events, this category (> 15
drought affected seasons) is displayed in the same color in the map as the areas that have been affected 11 to 15 times.
Note:
Note: As only 0.000037 per cent of the area of the CILSS countries have been affected by more than 15 drought events, this category (>15 drought affected seasons) is
displayedin the same colour in the map as the areas that have been affected 11 to 15 times.
Areas affected by drought (1982-2009). Area and population of the drought-affected areas per country (CILSS countries)
93
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Chad
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Senegal
total
Burkina Faso
Cape Verde
Chad
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Mauritania
Niger
Senegal
total
1 2 flood events
Population
%
abs.
%
(thsd.)
33.37
588
5.48
100.00
1,428
100.00
56.32
798
58.46
48.71
2,201
14.44
57.02
1,483
41.67
21.70
136
0.88
58.11
5,854
53.80
40.62
12,488
16.67
9 10 flood events
Area
Population
abs.
%
abs.
%
(km)
(thsd.)
30,534
11.10
934
5.93
91
0.01
0
0.00
61,312
5.15
3,106
20.00
91,937
1.83
4,040
5.39
abs.
(km)
426,159
10,862
19,252
612,974
595,411
258,333
115,024
2,038,014
Area
3 4 flood events
Population
%
abs.
%
(thsd.)
0.04
4
0.03
27.40
3,024
28.18
29.75
5,876
38.56
21.93
1,834
51.53
14.38
112
0.72
25.47
4,726
43.43
23.42
15,576
20.79
11 12 flood events
Area
Population
abs.
%
abs.
%
(km)
(thsd.)
112
0.04
5
0.03
4,570
0.38
324
2.09
4,682
0.09
329
0.44
abs.
(km)
122
349,926
374,376
229,006
171,185
50,418
1,175,033
Area
total population
of country (thsd.)
15,739
450
10,730
1,428
1,366
15,238
3,558
15,528
10,881
74,918
5 6 flood events
Population
%
abs.
%
(thsd.)
7.49
579
3.68
18.63
5,574
51.95
17.84
6,634
43.54
0.23
108
3.03
19.49
686
4.42
16.42
440
4.04
14.95
14,021
18.72
total area of
country (km)
275,049
4,079
1,277,143
10,862
34,182
1,258,413
1,044,184
1,190,209
197,926
5,292,047
abs.
(km)
20,590
237,883
224,472
2,404
231,952
32,490
749,792
Area
abs.
(km)
223,850
36,054
17,807
297,138
574,848
Area
Areas affected by flooding (1985-2009). Area and population of the flood-affected areas per country (CILSS countries)
7 8 flood events
Population
%
abs.
%
(thsd.)
81.39
14,214
90.31
2.82
1,329
12.39
1.42
514
3.37
24.97
11,111
71.55
11.46
27,168
36.26
94
Cape Verde
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mauritania
Senegal
Benin
Cameroon
Cte dIvoire
Ghana
Guinea
Liberia
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Togo
total
Cape Verde
Gambia, The
Guinea-Bissau
Mauritania
Senegal
Benin
Cameroon
Cte dIvoire
Ghana
Guinea
Liberia
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Togo
total
total area of
country (km)
4,079
10,862
34,182
1,044,184
197,926
116,335
469,364
324,000
240,305
246,411
96,507
915,225
72,788
57,405
3,829,573
total population
of country (thsd.)
450
1,428
1,366
3,558
10,881
8,232
18,400
19,341
23,478
9,920
4,631
146,462
6,133
5,677
259,957
Area and population of the defined elevation zones per country (coastal countries in the study region)
-5 4m elevation relative to sea level
Area
Population
abs.
%
abs.
%
(km)
(thsd.)
98
2.39
7
1.64
1,363
12.55
300
20.99
1,791
5.24
64
4.70
11,812
1.13
636
17.87
3,207
1.62
665
6.12
1,294
1.11
693
8.42
276
0.06
41
0.22
1,483
0.46
532
2.75
1,446
0.60
295
1.26
2,044
0.83
190
1.92
394
0.41
176
3.80
3,638
0.40
3,406
2.33
2,084
2.86
242
3.95
261
0.46
173
3.05
31,192
0.81
7,420
2.85
Establishing laws and effective enforcement mechanisms that prohibit development in flood plains;
Mandating changes in urban and housing designs that can better withstand the sudden onset of
flooding;
Drought
Over the last 100 years, the region has faced severe recurrent drought.236 In response, local farmers have
developed a number of adaptation strategies, including the use of agroforestry, drought resistant crops
and infiltration ponds. Agroforestry is an integrated approach that balances the cultivation of food crops
and forests. This approach has been increasingly used in areas where drier conditions and higher population densities are prevalent.237 As agroforestry techniques are further developed, both scientific research
and local knowledge should be considered:
Specifically, baobab and acacia trees have been identified by researchers as valuable species that
can be used for agroforestry in drier areas of the region.238
Local knowledge on which tree species thrive under varying ecological conditions can help to inform
more diversified agroforestry practices. For example, in south-western Nigeria, a 1988 study revealed
a similar practice, in which local populations grew shade-tolerant crops such as Dioscorea spp. and
cocoyam in an essentially permanent forest setting.239
The cultivation of drought-resistant crops can enable farmers to better withstand dry seasons.
In
particular, using the early maturing varieties of these crops can also have positive benefits for
dryland communities especially during the period prior to harvest when food reserves run dry.241
Pearl millet has been identified as one of the most drought-tolerant crops of all the major staples.
Sorghum and millet are prominent cereal crops grown in dryland regions and are essential for food,
as well as feed for livestock. Additionally, a variety of millet known as Okashana 1 has been widely
used by farmers in Namibia due to its early maturation cycle.242 Furthermore, multipurpose grain
legumes have been identified as a source of low-cost protein that can also help to restore soil fertility.
Of these, the cowpea is most widely grown in the dry regions of Africa. Scientific research supported
by the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture has enabled the usage of improved cowpeas in
over 60 countries.
240
95
In addition to agroforestry and the usage of drought-resistant crops, infiltration ponds have also been
constructed to improve rainwater infiltration and moisture retention in soil, as well as to enhance a
plants water uptake capacity.243
Za method: This technique (see Case Study 7), sometimes known as the water pockets method,
is a longstanding technique that was revived in the Yatenga Province of northern Burkina Faso by
which small microreservoirs are dug out, enriched with fertilizer and covered with another thin layer of
soil.244 This enables water to collect in the reservoirs, providing seeds with humid soil. This technique
also helps to minimize runoff.
Stone contour bunds: Farmers in Burkina Faso, with the assistance of Oxfam staff, have also begun
building stone contour bunds to harvest rainwater and improve soil fertility and structure.245 Oxfam
helped the community acquire a simple and low-cost tool that enabled the precise measurement
of water levels. Since then, Za and stone contour bunds have been used jointly for food crops, tree
planting and fodder production. The combination of these tactics has led to the rehabilitation of
200,000-300,000 hectares of farmland in the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso.246
Half-moon technique: The half-moon technique is a modulation of the Za method built on forward
slopes. It involves the digging of a basin and the formation of an arched dyke with the excavated
soil, which collect runoff water d that then seeps into the soil.247 The half-moon technique is used to
enhance farm productivity through improvements in soil fertility and humidity.248
Natural mulches: Natural mulches have been integrated into farming practices in order to moderate
soil temperatures and extremes, suppress diseases and harmful pests, and conserve soil moisture.249
Further efforts to improve ecosystem management through measures such as crop pollination,
decomposition of wastes and regulating nutrient cycles can also help to enhance ecosystems
leading to more resilient, productive and sustainable land.250
96
Annex 9. References
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2011, 25 August). Horn of Africa Drought Crisis: Situation Report
No. 11.
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2011, 25 August). Horn of Africa Drought Crisis: Situation Report
No. 11.
Remarks delivered by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon during a meeting with the diplomatic corps in Seoul, South
Korea on 12August 2011. Retrieved August 2011 from http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs//2011/sgsm13744.doc.htm
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L.
Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK
Integrated Regional Information Networks & UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2008, June).
SAHEL: Sahel climate change diary - Day 1. Retrieved August 2011 from http://www.irinnews.org/printreport.
aspx?reportid=78524
Remarks delivered by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon during the 6587th meeting of the UN Security Council on 20
July 2011. Retrieved August 2011 from http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10332.doc.htm
Integrated Regional Information Networks & UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2008, June).
Sahel: Region is ground zero for climate change Egeland. Retrieved May 2011 from www.irinnews.org/Report.
aspx?ReportID=78515
Integrated Regional Information Networks & UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. (2008, June).
Sahel: Region is ground zero for climate change Egeland. Retrieved May 2011 from www.irinnews.org/Report.
aspx?ReportID=78515
Comit Permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Scheresse dans le Sahel. For more information, see: www.cilss.bf/
UN General Assembly. (2009, 11 September). UN Secretary Generals Report A/64/350: Climate change and its possible
security implications. United Nations General Assembly. New York.
10
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2010). Security Implications of Climate Change
in the Sahel: Evidence and policy options. Retrieved May 2011 from www.oecd.org/document/57/0,3746
,en_38233741_38246823_43345721_1_1_1_1,00.html
11
Hissler, S. (2010). Econometric study on the impact of rainfall variability on security in the Sahel region. OECD. Paris.
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106
Primary authors
Dennis Hamro-Drotz, UN Environment Programme
David Jensen, UN Environment Programme
Bessma Mourad, UN Environment Programme
Patrice Quesada, International Organization for Migration
Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Koko Warner, United Nations University, Bonn
Other contributors
Tamer Afifi, United Nations University, Bonn
Philippe Boncour, International Organization for Migration
Edwige Botoni, Comit permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Scheresse dans le Sahel (CILSS)
Jenny Clover, UN Environment Programme
Mahalmoudou Hamadoun, Comit permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Scheresse dans le Sahel
(CILSS)
Alexis Kabore, UN Development Programme, Burkina Faso
Dr. Hamad Kagone, West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development
Aki Kogachi, UN Development Programme, Burkina Faso
Alina Narusova, International Organization for Migration
Maximilien Pardo, UN Environment Programme
Renard Sexton, UN Environment Programme
Julie Snorek, United Nations University, Bonn
Andrew Thow, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Baba Traore, Comit permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Scheresse dans le Sahel (CILSS)/Institut
du Sahel (INSAH)
Research assistants
Julien Aguzzoli, UN Environment Programme
Sarah Bieber, UN Environment Programme
Kathryn Chelminski, UN Environment Programme
Matthias Chesley, UN Environment Programme
Lucas de Muelenaere, UN Environment Programme
Lucile Maertens, UN Environment Programme
Sophie Maisonnier, UN Environment Programme
Andrew Tomita, UN Environment Programme
Cassidy Travis, UN Environment Programme
107
Reviewers
Andrew Baldwin, Durham University, Geography department
Mario Boccucci, UN Environment Programme
Adamou Bouhari, UN Environment Programme
Brendan Bromwich, UN Environment Programme
Oli Brown, UN Environment Programme
Alexander Carius, Adelphi Research
Ivan Campbell, Saferworld
Marisol Estrella, UN Environment Programme
Seraphine Haeussling, UN Environment Programme
Anne Hammill, International Institute for Sustainable Development
Philipp Heinrigs, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Sahel and
West Africa Club
Achim Maas, Adelphi Research
Richard Matthew, University of California, Irvine
Silas KpananAyoung Siakor, Sustainable Development Initiative
Thierry Vircoulon, International Crisis Group
Senior editor
Silja Halle, UN Environment Programme
Editors
Dougal McInnes
Elisabeth Finney
Jonathan Waddell
Maps created by
Z_GIS - Centre for Geoinformatics, University of Salzburg (Michael Hagenlocher, Stefan Lang, Daniel
Hlbling)
108
www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters
ISBN: 978-92-807-3198-9
Job Number: DEP/1432/GE
www.unep.org
United Nations Environment Programme
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