Dr.

Dean Schonfeld

AP STATISTICS

1
January, 2012

COMPUTER LAB BOOTSTRAPPING

1. Statement of the Problem During the 2007 2008 regular season, LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers made 113 three-points shots out of 359 attempts, for a success percentage of 31.5%. During the playoffs, LeBron made 18 three-points shots out of 70 attempts, for a playoffs success percentage of only 25.7%. Many sportswriters and other experts wrote articles and broadcast pieces saying that LeBron chocked during the playoffs, since his success rate was lower than during the regular season. Were these experts correct? 2. Whats Different We could answer this question using either confidence intervals or tests of significance: However, in either case we would need to check and satisfy certain assumptions and conditions. Sometimes samples are small, skewed and it may be impossible to verify all the conditions needed for us to assume a Normal distribution. Here we will use a method called bootstrapping that does not need these assumptions and conditions. The method takes advantage of the fact that we now have available computer power which allows us to do many, many calculations very quickly. 3. Mechanics Open a collection in Fathom by dragging down from the shelf. Doubleclick the collection and rename it, e.g. LeBron. Drag down a Table from the shelf and for <new> type FreeShot and then right click on FreeShot and go to Edit Formula. Type:

Click Apply and OK Go to the collection, right click on it and select New Cases. Enter 70 Fathom will now fill the table with 70 values, either Made or Missed

Dr. Dean Schonfeld

AP STATISTICS

2
January, 2012

Fathom has now created a sample of 70 games, in the proportion of 31.5% successes same size and proportion as LeBrons regular season performance. To see the actual results, for your particular sample, pull down a Graph from the shelf, hold the FreeShot name and drag it to the horizontal axis of the graph. You will get a bar graph of Made and Missed. To see the actual values, for this particular sample, take the Summary from the shelf and drag FreeShot into the Summary. Right click, add a second formula S2 =columnproportion. Because we have created a sample, there is no guarantee that the proportion of three pointers in your sample is exactly 31.5% - there is sampling variation, that is variation from sample to sample. To see this, right click on the LeBron collection and choose Rerandomize. You will see the changes in the values in your table and in your summary table. Rerandomize three times and write here the values of the percent Made: 1st sample, % Made: _____________________ 2nd sample, % Made: _____________________ 3rd sample, % Made: _____________________ 4. Main concept in bootstrapping In bootstrapping we have ONLY ONE SAMPLE available, but we resample that sample WITH REPLACEMENT. Therefore each resampling will (likely) yield different values in the sample and in the statistics of the sample. 5. Creating the bootstrap distribution We need to freeze one sample the sample that we will take as our basis and that we will resample with replacement. Go to the table, right click on FreeShot and Clear Formula. This will give the basic sample we will work with.

Dr. Dean Schonfeld

AP STATISTICS

3
January, 2012

Right click the LeBron collection, choose Sample Cases and then modify the panel as shown at right. Click on Sample More Cases What you have done is created another sample of 70 cases based on the original sample and using replacement. Click on the Measures of the Inspector for the Sample of LeBron. Create a new measure, Pct_Made, as shown:

This means that for every new sample of 70 that we will get by resampling the original sample, we will compute a statistic that tells us the percentage of shots Made in that particular sample of 70. Right click on Sample LeBron and click on Collect Measures Replace the inspector with: Click at the bottom right of this inspector on Collect More Measures. This will take 100 resamples with repalcement of the original sample, each of n = 70, and compute the proportion of shots Made in each of these 100 samples. Go back to the inspector and click on cases, as shown at right. Drop a Graph into your document, and drag Pct_Made from the inspector into the graph. You should get a dot plot similar to the one shown below the bootstrap distribution

Dr. Dean Schonfeld

AP STATISTICS

4
January, 2012

6. Drawing conclusions from the bootstrap distribution. The graph shows 100 simulations (resamples with replacement). No assumptions and/or conditions were needed to get this distribution. Describe the distribution [NOTE: to find the center, right click the graph, choose Plot Value and write mean( ), then Apply/OK] 1. ______________________________________________________ 2. _______________________________________________________ 3. ________________________________________________________ Right click on the graph again and for Plot Value, write .257, the percentage LeBron made in the playoffs you should get a graph similar to the one below. Count how many points are on or below the value of .257. Divide this number by 100 to get a percentage of all points below or at .257 4. What statistical measure does this percentage represent

__________________________ 5. What would H0 and Ha be here? _________________________ _________________________

Dr. Dean Schonfeld

AP STATISTICS

5
January, 2012

For = .05, what would be your conclusion (in context)? ____________________________ __________________________________________________________________________ _