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Economic problems?
1.3Tn UK debt (200k per high rate taxpayer) will take decades to pay off. But most people are still in work and a spending backlog is growing so recovery could be swift Background growth potential is still there with new tech and new markets coming, and the crisis will accelerate transition to a better economy With poor management practices and inefficient companies purged, and society having re-appraised core values, the future might be pretty good.
You
Your Competitors
You cant capture market share by working harder since your competitors are too
Population churn
Re-migration Ageing workforce Emigration Inter-generational conflict
Brain drain
Inter-generational conflict
Ageing population and increasing life-spans
will cause big pensions problem Fewer young people will have to pay more taxes They will also see older people holding most political power The able young might emigrate Remigration of immigrant populations as their homelands get richer Retirement home UK could be left with the old, the unemployed and the unskilled
Web
presence
Personal sites & blogs Dot coms Portals Customer based value Socialising/dating
Semantic web
2000
2005
2010
2015
AI & Robotics
Tomorrow
Human
Far future
Today
Human Machine
Machine The information economy will move into the machine world.
Gel
Sensory echo
Internal sensing
sensory encoding
Neural response
Smart bacteria
could exist in both real world and cyberspace
Custom DNA
1 micron
Bacteria linked together via infrared, to make sophisticated self organising circuits
Care economy
Value of physical/ intellectual work Value of community & social wellbeing
time
More face to face interaction, needing emotional and human skills This may favour women and older people. Companies need to adapt to work more closely with the community.
Future office
AI and robotics will change the whole
nature of work and society
services, much of it face to face, so we will need more meeting facilities telework centres, binding local communities together
Telework centre
This futuristic view is out of date already. We will actually need more meeting places and fewer computers. Centres will double as both work and social places.
Fastest market growth is at the top of the hierarchy, heading already towards care economy
You should not focus on being best-in-class. You need agility. Optimisation is only a good strategy in a stable environment.
Increasing regulation
Technology Industry convergence change Ongoing Increasing globalisation social More potential engineering to exploit Need to control Improving pressures on Increasing focus surveillance environment on quality of life capability
Creative remuneration
Rapidly growing design-differentiated market
2005
2010
2015
2020
Globalisation
Brazil, Russia, India & China are rising, but the information economy wont last for ever
Machine intelligence changes nature of work. Increasingly fierce competition from high education, low wage economies Work dominated by face to face interaction so cant be done remotely Care economy
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Environmental quality
2005
2010
2015
2020
Transport sustainability
we need more advanced tech, not to go backwards 0-60 in 4s, quiet, zero emissions Slow, dirty, dangerous, expensive
Technology level
Mobility
Electronically driven cars operated as public
fleets could provide high social inclusivity and mobility while greatly reducing congestion, accidents, and carbon emissions. You would simply ask the computer for a car to somewhere and it would pick you up and take you there safely and efficiently, just like a taxi, but without the driver.
Solar Farming
Solar farms
sq m/day at 12% efficiency Over 600TW capability Total human usage today = 13.5TW The Sahara alone could supply 40x more energy than we need for the whole planet
Rapid obsolescence
Impact = device population x device impact Device size and power consumption slow Number of devices
fast
time
The faster we go through the obsolescence cycle, the smaller the overall environmental impact
Electronic jewellery
Social status Medical monitoring, alarms Communication, data distribution Sensing Mobile website Networking Digital image augmentation Digital bubble Decoration Identification, security Tribal signalling
Any form
Miniaturisation will bring everyday IT down to lapel-pin size. Combinations of devices can monitor and relay a wide variety of data.
Jewellery nets
Digital bubble
Digital bubbles will change how people network and socialise by enabling intelligent exchange of appropriate information and filtering out junk
Active skin
Epidermis
Dermis
Wearable layer Detachable layer Transfer layer Mid-term layer Skin Permanent layer
Skin-based electronics can link blood chemistry and nerve signals to external computers and systems Even thought recognition is starting to appear now
Emotiv Epoc headset for computer games
34
Display evolution
Will also see lots of very large wall displays, coffee table displays, digital windows, recipe tablets etc. All context aware.
retina
Laser
Virtual worlds
adding value to the real world
Duality
People and buildings can
emit an interactive digital aura over wireless LANs appearance
Next
Dabs eBay
Physical
M&S
WH Smith
Dixons
Tribalism is built in to human nature and fits the web perfectly. Expect Local Community political platforms govt Networks to migrate onto the web, where grassroots power can be mobilised quickly. Geographic Cyberspace World
Network Communities
Social world
Values tribalism
Global pressure groups will be able to apply pressure instantaneously, using billions of peoples economic and IT muscle. Will it be grass roots democracy or mob rule?
Country B
Cybercommunity Y
Country C
Cybercommunity Z
Real World
Cyberspace
Anti-tech backlash
One stop shop for all government data Monitoring of e-cash Number-plate recognition Abuse of Millimetre wave cameras
Criminals will just ignore these systems, using stolen phones, LCD plates, ID theft Criminals will have total freedom, we will have none
Privacy
Surveillance is already very intense, especially in the UK, but people are getting increasingly upset about the erosion of privacy and freedom If there is a backlash against it, you dont want your company to be on the wrong side of the fence
Thank you
idpearson@gmail.com www.futurizon.com