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POPULATION EXPLOSION IN PAKISTAN Crisis or Opportunity ?

(Written by Lt Col Khalid Masood)

Though some linguistics may differ but it is commonly believed that when written in Chinese, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters. One represents danger, and the other represents opportunity. Same holds good for the mammoth increase in the population of Islamic Republic of Pakistan that had made it the world's sixth most-populous country. At present average rate of approximately 2.14% per annum, this perpetual increase of population in Pakistan is capable of negating or minimizing ongoing progress, expansion & exploration of knowledge and resources, research and development, law and order situation, administration and governing as so on. The threat is real and stakes are high, however, there is always solutions to combat problems. Bigger the problem or threat is so bigger the solution could be. According to 1951 census, the population of West Pakistan was just 34 million people. At the turn of millennium, in 2001, we were 144 million. However, after a decade our population, now, is 170 million. By 2020, we are expected to be 220 million people. Unquestionably, this explosion of population is going to have very serious implications for provision of schooling, health services and other basic amenities of life for the coming decades. Creating employment opportunities at such a large scale will be extremely difficult and feeding such large population will also be a challenge for our decision makers. According to the Population Policy of Government of Pakistan issued in July 2002, an average of 3 billion rupees are being spent per annum for provision of subsidized contraceptives to the clients, service delivery, training, advocacy, and research and to cover human resource and infrastructure gaps essential for achieving the population policy objectives. The Government intends decreasing the birthrate to 1.9 % by 2020. Had something been achieved or not by employing this policy and spending such large sum is left for the imagination of readers. I propose to look at the situation from a different perspective. Population control policies had been extremely successful in the west particularly in European Union. Europe's 47 countries possessed 726 million people in 2003, a total projected to slump to 696 million by 2025, a drop as large as Canada's population. Twelve of the major 27 countries feature falling numbers. If present trends persist, the decline will become still bigger and arrive faster in more distant decades as the region increasingly falls prey to negative momentum. Italy's population is being predicted to shrink 28%, to 41 million, by 2050 and Whole Europe's population could shrink to 565 million by that time. Today, Europeans are short of infants, teen agers and youth in their society. The President of the European Commission recently warned governments that

by 2025 nearly one-third of the European population will be collecting pensions. Modern medicine and health care facilities are allowing people to live even longer, thus increasing the population of retired and aged people. These European countries will be deficient of required manpower to run various systems of their government and society in coming decades. A Danish Immigration Report of 2009 suggested that Denmark would need 100,000 workers over the next decade. Same is case of Japan in the East where average birthrate was just 1.38% in 1998, Japan's record low and among the lowest in the world. But today, Japanese have sensed the danger and want to reverse the policy. The Bandai Corporation, a toy company in Japan, has begun offering its employees $10,000 for every baby born after their second child. Some in Japan are suggesting to solve the problems of an impending decline in population through selective immigration. It is believed that China is quietly reviewing its "One Child per Couple" policy as well. By employing birth control policies do we need to follow Japanese, Chinese and Europeans ? Do we need to be short of infants, toddlers and kids who are the source of happiness, liveliness and cheerfulness in our homes ? Do we like to become a country where majority of old aged people live miserably, short of workforce and youth needed to remain on the map of Globe ? I believe that Government of Pakistan and its policies are not capable of controlling the population growth in Pakistan. At best, they can only keep the situation stabilized. We need to consider availability of this population as an opportunity and not as threat. In fact, there is a huge opportunity available right in front of us. Today, we have young people and some of the countries are or will be deficient of them. If we keep our large population in Pakistan only, that is going to be disastrous. But if we offer their services to countries in need of manpower it will become beneficial for us. We only need visionary and capable leadership who could visualize the needs of such deficient countries, train own youth for that and market them subsequently. Some of the European countries are making changes in their Immigration Rules and offering incentives for skilled people. Denmark is an example, where sizable number of skilled Pakistanis have recently migrated due to change in Immigration Rules. First Part of the solution for Pakistan is the selection and training. Most of the need will revolve around low to medium salary jobs like various type of operators, clerks, electrical, mechanical & Hi-Tech mechanics, black smiths, plumbers, laborers, construction workers & supervisors, sales workers, traffic police, security staff, para-medics and so on. However, the need of doctors, engineers, computer programmers, network administrators etcetera in Europe is not likely to decline in coming decades. Moreover, there is need to train both the

genders instead of concentrating on males only. A working couple is more likely to be acceptable in the West as compared to a single male. Marketing the available trained youth will be second part of the solution. Most of Pakistanis living or working abroad are hardworking, cooperative and law abiding people who are well respected in those societies. Successful Pakistanis along with Government of Pakistan should chalk out strategy and work together in getting sizable number of "group visa" and work permits. All those who are sent abroad be motivated to send their earning back to Pakistan via banking channels instead of illegal hundhi System. The cycle of training and shipping required men and women need continuation for harvesting its enormous benefits. Moreover, we need to get rid of the stigma of terrorism. This is eroding the reputation of Pakistanis very fast. There is need to eliminate the menace of terrorism in Pakistan on urgent basis ruthlessly. It is the job of leadership to visualize situation, make difficult decision and implement those resolutely for attaining benefits in near or far future. Today, Pakistan is sitting on population bomb which can annihilate the nation in coming years if not harnessed in right direction without losing precious time.