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Created by Bill Roggio and Alexander Mayer Since 2004, the US has been conducting a covert program to target and kill al Qaeda and Taliban commanders based in Pakistan's lawless northwest. The program has targeted top al Qaeda leaders, al Qaeda's external operations network, and Taliban leaders and fighters who threaten both the Afghan and Pakistani states. The charts below look at the following: 1) the number of US airstrikes inside Pakistan per year; 2) civilian casualties vs. Taliban/al Qaeda casualties; 3) the distribution of strikes over time by tribal agencies; 4) the overall distribution of strikes, by tribal agencies; 5) the distribution of strikes over time by territories targeted; 6) the overall distribution of strikes, by territories targeted; and 7) the number of high value targets killed in territories managed by individual Taliban commanders. The data is obtained from press reports from the Pakistani press (Daily Times, Dawn, Geo News, The News, and other outlets), as well as wire reports (AFP, Reuters, etc.), as well as reporting from The Long War Journal. Given the Taliban's control of the areas where strikes occur, and a dearth of reporters in those areas, the exact numbers for casualties are difficult to know. For more details on the Predator program and its effects, see LWJ report, Analysis: US air campaign in Pakistan heats up. For a list of al Qaeda and Taliban leaders thought to have been killed in the attacks, see LWJ report, Senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders killed in US airstrikes in Pakistan 2004 - 2011. This page was last updated on Thursday, January 19, 2012, 2:12 pm GMT. These seven charts will be updated when information about prior or new strikes comes to light.
The US ramped up the number of strikes in July 2008, and has continued to regularly hit at Taliban and Al Qaeda targets inside Pakistan. There have been 280 strikes total since the program began in 2004; 270 of those strikes have taken place since January 2008. 1
Since 2006, there have been 2,154 leaders and operatives from Taliban, Al Qaeda, and allied extremist groups killed and 138 civilians killed. Data for 2004 and 2005 are not available at this time.
Over the past six years, the strikes have focused on two regions: North and South Waziristan. Over the past two years, there has been a dramatic shift in the location of the 2
Of the 280 strikes since 2004, 69% have hit targets in North Waziristan, and 26% have hit targets in South Waziristan.
The majority of the attacks have taken place in the tribal areas administered by four powerful Taliban groups: the Mehsuds, Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, and the Haqqanis. In 2010, there was a dramatic shift in strikes to tribal areas administered by 3
Mullah Nazir and Waliur Rehman are based in South Waziristan; the Haqqanis, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, and Abu Kasha al Iraqi are based in North Waziristan; Hakeemullah Mehsud is based in Arakzai; and Faqir Mohammed is based in Bajaur. Two bases operated by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar were hit in South Waziristan. For eight of the strikes, territorial control has not been reported.
The Pakistani government considers Nazir, the Haqqanis, Bahadar, and Hekmatyar to be 'good Taliban' as they do not carry out attacks against the Pakistani state. All of these Taliban factions shelter al Qaeda and various other terror groups.
Note: This is an updated analysis of the US air campaign in Pakistan. The first look at the data was published on July 21, 2009; the second report was published on Oct. 1, 2009. One new chart, "Number of Strikes, Per Month," has been added. The US air campaign in Pakistan's tribal areas remains the cornerstone of the effort to root out and decapitate the senior leadership of al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other allied terror groups, and to disrupt both al Qaeda's global and local operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. As expected, in 2009 the US well exceeded the number of attacks in 2008, with 53 compared to 36. And with two strikes in the first four days of 2010, one can expect the intensity of the campaign this year to equal or exceed last year's pace. Although 16 senior al Qaeda and Taliban leaders have been killed since the air campaign heated up in 2008, the terror groups remain a force in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US has been compelled to surge forces in Afghanistan and revamp its strategy there, while the Pakistani military has been forced to launch military operations in Swat and South Waziristan. Despite some tactical victories by the Pakistani military in Pakistan, the Taliban and its allies are able to carry out suicide attacks and complex assaults on secure military and government targets with regularity. Al Qaeda's external operations network, which is assigned to carrying out attacks outside Afghanistan and Pakistan, has been a prime target of US airstrikes; three external operations chiefs have been killed since May 2008.
Killed in 2008: Abu Zubair al Masri Served as an explosives expert for al Qaeda as well as a leader. Date killed: November 21, 2008 Abdullah Azzam al Saudi Served as liaison between al Qaeda and the Taliban operating in Pakistan's northwest. Azzam facilitated al Qaeda's external operations network. He also served as a recruiter and trainer for al Qaeda. Date killed: November 19, 2008 Abu Jihad al Masri The leader of the Egyptian Islamic Group and the chief of al Qaeda's intelligence branch, and directed al Qaeda's intelligence shura. He directed al Qaeda's external operations in Egypt. Date killed: October 31, 2008 Khalid Habib The commander of the Lashkar al Zil or the Shadow Army, al Qaeda's paramilitary forces in Pakistan's northwest and Afghanistan. Date killed: October 16, 2008 Abu al Hasan al Rimi A senior al Qaeda operative. Date killed: October 2008 - exact date unknown Abu Ubaidah al Tunisi An al Qaeda military commander who fought against the Russians in Afghanistan. Date killed: September 17, 2008 Abu Musa An al Qaeda operative from Saudi Arabia. Date killed: September 8, 2008 Abu Qasim An al Qaeda operative from Egypt. Date killed: September 8, 2008 Abu Hamza An explosives expert from Saudi Arabia who served as al Qaeda's commander in Peshawar. Date killed: September 8, 2008 Abu Haris A senior al Qaeda military commander from Syria who led more than 250 Arab and Afghan fighters under the guise of the Jaish al Mahdi in Helmand province. He became al Qaeda's operations chief in the tribal areas in 2008. Date killed: September 8, 2008 Abu Wafa al Saudi An al Qaeda commander and logistician. Date killed: September 4, 2008 Abdul Rehman A local Taliban commander in the Wana region in South Waziristan. Date killed: August 13, 2008
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Killed in 2007: No senior al Qaeda or Taliban leaders or operatives were reported killed during the strikes in 2007. Killed in 2006: Liaquat Hussain Second-in-command of the Bajaur TNSM. Date killed: October 30, 2006 Imam Asad Camp commander for the Black Guard, al Qaeda's elite bodyguard for Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri. Asad was a Chechen with close links to Shamil Basayev. Date killed: March 1, 2006
Killed in 2005: Abu Hamza Rabia Al Qaeda's operational commander. He was involved with two assassination plots against Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. Date killed: December 1, 2005 Killed in 2004: Nek Mohammed A senior Taliban commander in South Waziristan who had links to Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar. Date killed: June 18, 2004
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