United States Africa Command Public Affairs Office 7 February 2011 USAFRICOM - related news stories

Good morning. Please find attached news clips related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa, along with upcoming events of interest for February 7, 2011. Of interest in todays clips: - Dutch say troops coming back after Flintlock cancelled. - Mali unrest continues with Tuareg attacks in the northern city Kidal; ATT claims weapons coming from Libya. - Nigerian police station attacked in Kano. - Is Democracy failing in Sub-Saharan Africa? - Finally, the Washington Post examines the Pentagons new vision for war. Provided in text format for remote reading. Links work more effectively when this message is viewed as in HTML format. U.S. Africa Command Public Affairs Please send questions or comments to: africom-pao@africom.mil 421-2687 (+49-711-729-2687) -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Top News related to U.S. Africa Command and Africa Security brings Dutch marines home early (Radio Netherlands Worldwide) http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/%E2%80%98security%E2%80%99-brings-dutchmarines-home-early 7 February 2012 A group of 30 Dutch marines and commandos are being brought back from Africa to the Netherlands early. They were due to take part in international military exercises in Mali towards the end of the month. Tuareg rebels attack Mali town of Kidal (al Jazeera) http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/02/20122416445129368.html 6 February 2012
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Nazanine Sadri Aid workers says that 15,000 people have fled escalating battles between army and armed separatists in northern regions. President: Tuareg fighters from Libya stoke violence in Mali (CNN) http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/06/world/africa/mali-unrest/index.html?eref=edition 6 February 2012 CNN Wire Staff Tuareg tribesman who reportedly fought for Moammar Gadhafi in Libya have returned to Mali with weapons, stoking violence and forcing thousands to flee, Mali's president said. Fresh attacks against police in flashpoint city of Kano (France 24) http://www.france24.com/en/20120206-fresh-attacks-against-police-flashpoint-city-kanomaiduguri-nigeria-boko-haram 6 February 2012 News Wires Armed militants blew up a police headquarters and shot an officer in the Nigerian city of Kano on Monday as more blasts were reported in Maiduguri, a hotbed of Boko Haram Islamists. Coordinated attacks in Kano last month killed at least 185 people. Somalia moves to evict Mogadishu squatters (BBC) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16910628 6 February 2012 News Wires Somalia has started a major operation to remove tens of thousands of people who have been squatting in government buildings in the capital. Kenya: Shabaab Blamed for Garissa Deaths (allAfrica.com) http://allafrica.com/stories/201202060888.html 4 February 2012 Daily Nation By Fred Mukinda and Issa Hussein Three people were killed and one is in a critical condition at the Garissa Provincial Hospital following an attack in Garissa town that has been blamed on Al-Shabaab operatives. Democracy in sub-Saharan Africa: once rising, now stumbles (Christian Science Monitor Online) http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2012/0206/Democracy-in-subSaharan-Africa-once-rising-now-stumbles 6 February 2012 By Vukasin Petrovic

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The progress that sub-Saharan Africa has achieved in building democracy over the past generation is coming undone. After two decades of significant gains, the continent has experienced a steady decline in democracy over the last several years. The Pentagon's New View of Warfare (Washington Post) http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-pentagons-new-view-ofwarfare/2012/02/02/gIQAWRHAvQ_story.html 7 February By Walter Pincus To deter potential conflicts, the nation will have forward-based sea, air and ground forces in strategic areas around the globe. It will also retain its nuclear triad of land- and submarine-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------UN News Service Africa Briefs http://www.un.org/apps/news/region.asp?Region=AFRICA

UN 6 February A new United Nations report shows that almost 2,000 communities across Africa abandoned female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) last year, prompting calls for a renewed global push to end this harmful practice once and for all. Somalia: UN and pa tne s insist inte im political a angement must end in August 6 February The international group that brings together the United Nations and its diplomatic partners in support of efforts to restore peace and stability in Somalia insisted today that the countrys current transitional governing arrangements must end on 20 August this year, as stipulated in recent agreements, and called for a new draft constitution by mid-April. (Full Articles on UN Website) ### -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upcoming Events of Interest: Tues., 7 Feb 12 WHEN: 10 a.m.

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Nearly 2,000 African communities end female genital mutilation

WHAT: House Foreign Affairs Hearing - Export Controls Arms Sales and Reform: Balancing US Interests Part II WHERE: Rayburn House Office Building Rm 2172 Wed., 8 Feb 12 WHEN: 2:00 3:30 p.m. WHAT: Brookings Institution Discussion on Meet the Press at Brookings: The Egypt Revolution One Year On. Speakers: Moderator: David Gregory, Anchor, Meet the Press, NBC News; Panelists: Thomas Friedman, Columnist, The New York Times; Shadi Hamid, Director of Research, Brookings Doha Center; Martin S. Indyk, Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy; and Tamara Wittes, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, U.S. Department of State. WHERE: Brookings, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW CONTACT: 202-797-6105, events@brookings.edu; web site: www.brookings.edu WHEN: 3:00 4:30 p.m. WHAT: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Book Event on Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power. Speakers: Introduction by John Hamre, CSIS; remarks by Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Adviser and CSIS Counselor and Trustee and author of Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power; Interviewed by David Ignatius, The Washington Post. WHERE: Willard Room, Willard InterContinental Hotel, 1401 Pennsylvania Avenue NW CONTACT: To RSVP please e-mail externalrelations@csis.org; web site: www.csis.org Fri., 10 Feb 12 WHEN: 12:00 1:00 p.m. WHAT: Middle East Institute (MEI) Discussion on Egypt's Unfinished Revolution: One Year Later. Speaker: Egyptian journalist Ashraf Khalil, who will discuss his new book, Liberation Square: Inside the Egyptian Revolution and the Rebirth of a Nation, and the political landscape in Egypt on the first anniversary of the revolution. WHERE: MEI, 1761 N Street, NW CONTACT: 202-785-1141; web site: www.mei.edu -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Whats new on www.africom.mil Soldiers Deliver Supplies to Remote Djiboutian School http://www.africom.mil/getArticle.asp?art=7603&lang=0 Staff Sergeant Stephen Linch, USAF CJTF-HOA Public Affairs 6 February 2012 BALHO, Djibouti - U.S. Army Sergeant 1st Class Timothy Scally, Civil Affairs Team 4902 team sergeant, greets students at the Balho School in Balho, Djibouti, January 31,
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2012. The school, located in a remote village in the Tadjourah region, was running low on school supplies when the team made the delivery. ### __________________________________________________________ FULL TEXT Security brings Dutch marines home early (Radio Netherlands Worldwide) http://www.rnw.nl/english/bulletin/%E2%80%98security%E2%80%99-brings-dutchmarines-home-early 7 February 2012 A group of 30 Dutch marines and commandos are being brought back from Africa to the Netherlands early. They were due to take part in international military exercises in Mali towards the end of the month. The Malian and United States authorities have cancelled the Flintlock military exercises 2012 for security reasons. The exercises were scheduled to involve 2,000 soldiers from 16 countries. The Dutch contingent has been preparing for the exercises in Senegal and Burkina Faso. The Netherlands has been taking part since 2007 in the Flintlock exercises, which are held biannually and form part of US military exercises in Africa. The aim of the exercises is to train African soldiers and improve co-operation between countries, so the nations of Africas Sahel zone can better combat regional terrorism. Last year opposition MPs tabled questions about the Dutch involvement in Flintlock. Defence Minister Hans Hillen wrote that the Dutch view them as a good opportunity to train in climatically and geographically challenging circumstances in Africa. Because Flintlock sees Dutch soldiers taking part only in exercises, the government isnt obliged to inform parliament as it would if personnel were deployed in an actual mission abroad. Opposition MPs have again tabled questions about the latest involvement in Flintlock. ###

Tuareg rebels attack Mali town of Kidal (al Jazeera) http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2012/02/20122416445129368.html 6 February 2012 Nazanine Sadri

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Aid workers says that 15,000 people have fled escalating battles between army and armed separatists in northern regions Ethnic Tuareg rebels have launched a fierce offensive against Mali's security forces in a bid to seize the northern town of Kidal. The attack on Saturday is further evidence that Tuareg rebels have significantly increased their attacks against government control in Mali. Kidal is the latest and most significant town targeted by the fighters, who have gained ground in other northern areas following weeks of clashes with government forces. The Tuareg rebels have been bolstered by an influx of fighters from Libya who joined their movement after the late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was toppled last year. Hama Sidahmed, a Europe-based spokesman for the rebels, said their ambition was to take control over Kidal. "We will take the two military camps and occupy the town." The sporadic firing of heavy weapons have been heard across the town as government forces fought to fend off the fighters, according the Reuters news agency. In recent days, thousands of civilians reportedly fled the town in anticipation of the fighting. Civilians fleeing Some Tuareg leaders say many of their community have also fled the southern city of Bamako, fearing reprisals after violent demonstrations this week. About 3,500 people had crossed west into Mauritania, said a Mauritanian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The International Committee for the Red Cross (ICRC) said on Friday that nearly 10,000 people had fled into Niger after fighting between the army and armed groups in the area around the northeastern cities of Menaka and Anderamboucane. Other aid officials say more than 5,000 others have fled to Mauritania. The Tuareg rebels say they are fighting to secure the independence of Azawad, an area that takes in Mali's three northern regions, one of which is Kidal. The government accused the rebels of atrocities and collaborating with al-Qaeda, a charge rejected by the MNLA.

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The ICRC said that some refugees were being looked after by local families while others had set up makeshift camps nearby. ### President: Tuareg fighters from Libya stoke violence in Mali (CNN) http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/06/world/africa/mali-unrest/index.html?eref=edition 6 February 2012 CNN Wire Staff (CNN) -- Tuareg tribesman who reportedly fought for Moammar Gadhafi in Libya have returned to Mali with weapons, stoking violence and forcing thousands to flee, Mali's president said. The development, announced by President Amadou Toumani Toure in a speech broadcast on state TV over the weekend, is perhaps the most-significant regional fallout to date from the end of former Libyan leader's regime. The fighters returning from Libya have blended into the National Movement for Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA) and renamed northern Mali as the Azawad, the name of the region home to a majority of the Mali Tuareg. During the address, Toure blamed freshly-armed fighters returning from Libya for attacks on military patrols outside the northeastern town of Aguelhoc, which has become a flashpoint in the struggle between the military and the rebels. The military was "unable to enter Aguelhoc where elements of Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), a group of former fighters from Libya and a group of deserters from our army were well positioned," Toure said, according to the state-run L'essor newspaper. "The fighting was hard and we lost men, and equipment was destroyed." The growing insurgency is also raising concerns in Washington, which sees the small, poor nation as an important ally against AQIM, the sub-Saharan al Qaeda group. "The situation is unpredictable and instability could spread. Private citizens have not been targeted, but the MNLA has indicated via its websites that it intends to conduct military operations across northern Mali," the U.S. State Department said as part of a new travel warning issued last week. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland condemned the rebel attacks, saying Saturday that "the United States is deeply concerned by continuing incidents of violence." The influx of fighters returning from Libya has re-energized the Tuareg insurgency, which seeks to wrest control of three northern regions, according to the global
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intelligence firm Stratfor. "Mali has experienced perhaps the most significant external repercussions from the downfall of the regime of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi," it said in a recent analysis. Gadhafi endeared himself to Malians by funding the construction of a popular mosque in the capital Bamako, and helped pay for a Malian government complex that remains under construction. He is also accused of backing the Tuaregs in Mali and Niger during the 1990s. So it came as no surprise that Malian Tuaregs willingly went to Libya to fight for Gadhafi as he fought to keep hold of the reigns of his regime which crumbled in August, Libya's new government has said. After Gadhafi's death in October, heavily armed Tuareg fighters began returning home and launching attacks on the Malian army, Mali's government said. The nomadic Tuaregs, who are considered an indigenous tribe in the region, are spread across Mali, Libya, Algeria, Niger and Burkino Faso. In Mali, the Tuareg have long called for the creation of an independent state -- and have risen up against the Malian government a number of times since the 1960s. The latest uprising began to take root late last year but gained momentum in January when the rebels began attacking towns in northern Mali. The Malian army clashed with rebels in the Timbuktu region last week, killing 20 people, taking a dozen prisoners and seizing vehicles and weapons, according to the country's defense ministry. It reported no casualties on the government side. But the rebels claim to have either attacked or seized at least six towns in recent weeks, including some in the Timbuktu region, according to its website. The claims appear to be supported by reports by the International Committee of the Red Cross that thousands have fled the region ahead of fighting. Malians have taken to the streets in the capital city of Bamako to protest the government response to the MNLA amid rumors that the army, not the rebels, initiated the latest fighting with attacks on the Tuareg, an allegation Toure and others say is false. The unrest has thrown Toure's administration into turmoil. He sacked his defense and interior ministers last week, and quickly moved to meet with the wives of soldiers who were forced to flee their homes for refugee camps ahead of rebel attacks. Toure told the families at camps outside Bamako and neighboring Kati that Malian troops did not initiate the fighting in famine-stricken Tinzawaten, which became ground zero in

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the latest uprising. "Our military did not go to the north to make war but rather to deliver supplies to our troops in Tinzawaten," he told the wives, according to state-run media. It was after that that armed fighters attacked the towns of Menaka, Tessalit and Aguelhoc, he told the spouses, according to the report. "There are many rumors. If we are not careful, we'll fall into the hands of those who are attacking Mali and who want to oppose the government," he said. Nearly 10,000 Malians and Nigerians have fled because of the fighting, the International Committee of the Red Cross reported last week. "Some of the refugees have been cared for by (local) villagers, but space has been absorbed very quickly," said Jurg Eglin who heads ICRC operations in Niger and Mali. "The shelters are sketchy. These people, many of them women and children, suffer from lack of food and especially water." Another 3,000 have reportedly fled to Mauritania, according to the state-run AMI news agency. Qaddafi's Weapons, Taken by Old Allies, Reinvigorate an Insurgent Army in Mali ### Fresh attacks against police in flashpoint city of Kano (France 24) http://www.france24.com/en/20120206-fresh-attacks-against-police-flashpoint-city-kanomaiduguri-nigeria-boko-haram 6 February 2012 News Wires Armed militants blew up a police headquarters and shot an officer in the Nigerian city of Kano on Monday as more blasts were reported in Maiduguri, a hotbed of Boko Haram Islamists. Coordinated attacks in Kano last month killed at least 185 people. AFP - Gunmen blew up a police station and shot one officer in Nigeria's flashpoint city of Kano on Monday as blasts rocked a market in Maiduguri, the base of the Boko Haram Islamists, police said. Boko Haram has claimed a series of recent attacks in Africa's most populous nation and top oil producer, including coordinated gun and bomb assaults on January 20 in Kano, Nigeria's second city, that killed at least 185. A senior police officer told AFP the police station in Kano's Sharada neighbourhood had
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been burned down by attackers armed with explosives, who also shot one officer in the leg. There was also a shootout between police and the attackers, residents said. "I had just arrived home in time for the curfew when I heard an explosion coming from around the police station. Shortly, gunshots followed. From what I heard it sounded like a shootout," said Bala Salisu, 46, from Kano's Sharada district. Authorities imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew in Kano following the January 20 attacks that primarily targetted the police, like many of the group's recent assaults. Another Kano resident, Sadiq Aniyu, said he was at a checkpoint not far from the police station when he "heard a huge explosion and gunshots." "We all panicked and it became chaotic as people on cars and on motorbikes jostled to escape the area," Aniyu, 30, said. Residents reported a separate gunbattle near a suspected Boko Haram hideout on the outskirts of Kano, the predominantly Muslim northern hub. A joint military and police force raided a home in the Mariri neighbourhood sparking a shootout with the occupants, said locals who requested anonymity. Separately in Maiduguri, east of Kano, residents reported multiple blasts at the Gamboru market that set several vehicles and shops on fire. Maiduguri is seen as a stronghold of Boko Haram, the shadowy Islamist group blamed for a series of recent attacks in Nigeria that have killed more than 200 people already this year. "I heard five explosions around the market and plumes of black smoke... filled the air. The market is still on fire. Soldiers and policeman have taken over the whole area," said resident Aisha Goni. Colonel Victor Ebhaleme, operations chief for the Joint Task Force in Maiduguri, a special military unit set up to crack down on Boko Haram, confirmed the explosions at the market but declined to give details. Security forces have faced mounting pressure to contain the Boko Haram insurgency that has involved a set of increasingly sophisticated attacks. The spiralling violence has sparked deep concern in the international community and shaken the country, whose 160 million population is roughly divided between a mainly Muslim north and predominantly Christian south.

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There has been intense speculation over whether Boko Haram has formed links with outside extremist groups, including Al-Qaeda's north African branch. Analysts say the violence has been fed by deep poverty in the north, where masses of unemployed youths have little trust in government or hope for the future in a country long considered one of the world's most corrupt. ### Somalia moves to evict Mogadishu squatters (BBC) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16910628 6 February 2012 News Wires Somalia has started a major operation to remove tens of thousands of people who have been squatting in government buildings in the capital. Mogadishu's mayor told the BBC that alternative housing was not being provided, as the squatters were able to pay rent to illegal landlords. Many thousands of people are also living as refugees in the city, after fleeing conflict and drought. The security situation in Mogadishu has improved over the past year. The Islamist militant group al-Shabab group last year pulled out of the city but it continues to stage suicide attacks. Last week, William Hague became the first British foreign secretary to visit Mogadishu since 1991 - the last time Somalia had a functioning national government. Local aid agencies estimate that more than 50,000 people have been sheltering in ministry buildings, schools and universities - many of which have been badly damaged during the years of warfare. Continue reading the main story Start Quote These are government offices where public services will be offered End Quote Sharif Sheikh Ahmed Somali president One school had been used as a temporary camp for around 17,000 internally displaced people. Mogadishu Mayor Mohamud Nur told BBC Somali that people were first being moved from buildings which the government had the money to rebuild.
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Much of the funding for the operation has come from Turkey. Mr Nur said that so far, people had left the buildings on a voluntary basis but that if they refused to move, force would be used. President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed visited one of the sites to encourage people to leave. "These are government offices where public services will be offered," he said, adding that the reconstruction would provide jobs. Some residents, however, rejected his call to vacate the buildings, saying they had nowhere else to go. Some 12,000 African Union troops are helping the government keep control of Mogadishu, while Kenyan and Ethiopian forces have pushed al-Shabab out of some other areas. It still dominates much of southern Somalia. Somalia is also suffering from the worst drought to hit the region in 60 years, which has left thousands of people dead, according to the UN. Last week, the UN declared that the country was no longer suffering from a famine. ### Kenya: Shabaab Blamed for Garissa Deaths (allAfrica.com) http://allafrica.com/stories/201202060888.html 4 February 2012 Daily Nation By Fred Mukinda and Issa Hussein Three people were killed and one is in a critical condition at the Garissa Provincial Hospital following an attack in Garissa town that has been blamed on Al-Shabaab operatives. The incident occurred on Friday evening as the victims took tea outside Jubba Hotel. Two masked men A witness at the hotel said two masked men armed with pistols walked up to the group and shot at the men, killing two of them instantly. The third succumbed to bullet wounds as preparations to airlift him to Nairobi were made. The assailants ran off after the attack. Relatives of the slain men say they believed it was an Al-Shabaab attack as one of the
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terrorist group's leaders - identified only as Sheikh Ahmed - had claimed two of the victims were wanted by the militants because they had fled Somalia to sabotage the group. Mr Hamud Sheikh Mohamed, an elder in Garissa who was among the first people at the scene, appealed to the government to ensure the security of the public since the incident has caused widespread panic in the town. "Nobody is safe in this town if two youthful attackers can walk into the middle of the town armed with pistols, kill and walk away," he said, urging the police to increase their patrols. And in Nairobi, KDF told a news conference that they had conducted what they termed the finest air raid since the war against Al-Shabaab began, saying it had massively weakened the terrorist group. The raid was carried out using helicopter gunships in Dalayat at 5pm on Friday. "This is one of the best attacks ever. We got them (Al-Shabaab militants) in vehicles before they could alight. "They were planning to attack our troops at Badade and we caught them unawares," said the officer in charge of operations and information, Col Cyrus Oguna. Nine lorries and an equal number of technical vehicles mounted with heavy artillery were destroyed, he said. Colonel Oguna said many Al-Shabaab fighters were killed and others injured. The attack, he said, meant that KDF would continue occupying Hosingo and Badade townships, where they had ousted Al-Shabaab a week earlier. Col Oguna said the captured towns had been used by Al-Shabaab as transit points for explosive devices which were then smuggled into Kenya. "They also contributed to erosion of the economy in Kenya since they provided routes for contraband goods like electronics and sugar. The IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) in Garissa and Wajir may also be reduced," he said. Col Oguna added: "Al-Shabaab is completely weakened. Their source of revenue is destroyed and they are ceding more ground. In the coming weeks, we expect the AlShabaab to back off, retreat or surrender." ### Democracy in sub-Saharan Africa: once rising, now stumbles

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(Christian Science Monitor Online) http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/Africa-Monitor/2012/0206/Democracy-in-subSaharan-Africa-once-rising-now-stumbles 6 February 2012 By Vukasin Petrovic The progress that sub-Saharan Africa has achieved in building democracy over the past generation is coming undone. After two decades of significant gains, the continent has experienced a steady decline in democracy over the last several years. In 1972, when Freedom House began publishing Freedom in the World, the state of political and civil rights in sub-Saharan Africa was bleak. With the exception of a few bright spots, dictatorships of one stripe or another ruled the majority of citizens on the continent. Coups and countercoups were commonplace, as were leaders who proclaimed themselves president for life. Elections, if held at all, were often manipulated to validate an incumbent leaders rule. In the mid-1980s, a wave of democratization began to transform Africa. The continent experienced close to two decades of steady and, in a few cases, impressive democratic gains, arguably reaching the peak of its development in 2005. For that year, of the regions 48 countries, 11 were rated Free by Freedom House, while 23 were rated Partly Free and 14 remained Not Free. From 2005 until today, democratic setbacks in sub-Saharan Africa have significantly outpaced its once promising gains. Political and civil rights improved in only 10 countries, largely due to the stabilization of post-conflict situations, while 23 countries experienced overall, and often rapid, declines in democracy. In the most recent edition of Freedom in the World, covering calendar year 2011, only nine countries were rated Free, 21 were rated Partly Free, and a shocking 19 were designated Not Free. Improvements in 2011 were evident in Niger, which held competitive and transparent elections, and Cte dIvoire, where Alassane Ouattara assumed the presidency following extensive fighting triggered by the refusal of the previous president, Laurent Gbagbo, to accept defeat in the December 2010 elections. In addition, Zambia achieved modest gains due to elections that led to a peaceful transfer of power to Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front, ending over two decades of rule by the Movement for Multiparty Democracy. The most notable declines in democracy for sub-Saharan Africa in 2011 took place around elections. The Gambia was downgraded from Partly Free to Not Free in the aftermath of presidential elections that were judged neither free nor fair. The electoral environment was rendered toxic by President Yahya Jammehs suppression of the political opposition, media, and civil society. In Uganda, the government of Yoweri Museveni brutally cracked down on independent journalists and employed repressive tactics against peaceful protesters. Antigovernment protests were also subjected to a violent crackdown in Djibouti, which witnessed the
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intimidation of opposition political parties prior to an election that resulted in a third term for President Ismail Omar Guelleh. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the flawed November elections sparked widespread violence that continues to engulf Kinshasa and threatens to become a nationwide conflict if a timely political solution is not reached. The causes for sub-Saharan Africas setbacks in the period from 2005 to 2011 vary from country to country, but upon deeper analysis, a clear pattern begins to emergeAfrica has suffered a noticeable decline in all of the fundamental components of freedom that inform Freedom in the World. The sharpest declines occurred in the categories of Freedom of Expression and Belief (22 countries), Political Pluralism and Participation (20 countries), and Rule of Law (20 countries). The score for Organizational and Associational Rights declined in 18 countries, while that for Electoral Process decreased in 14 countries. The deterioration in these areas reflects the determination of political elites to hold on to power at any cost, and particularly to hijack elections. Excluding countries that suffered armed conflicts or coups over the last two decades (and the newly formed nation of South Sudan), all of the sub-Saharan African states rated Not Free this year have been ruled by the same parties or leaders for at least 20 years, and in some cases much longer. There is a clear link between the length of ruling parties tenures and the steady decline in democracy. Even sub-Saharan Africas powerhouses, such as Ethiopia (21 years), Kenya (10 years), Nigeria (13 years), and South Africa (18 years) have experienced an overall stagnation or decline in freedom. The poor performance of precisely these largest and most influential countries, which had previously inspired hope for democratic progress, is perhaps the most disturbing trend in the region. Kenya, despite its previously modest democratic gains, has not fully recovered since the flawed elections of 2007, following which politically motivated ethnic violence broke out. To date, impunity has largely reigned; those responsible for directing and participating in the violence have yet to be held accountable. Similarly, Nigerias stagnation since the disastrous elections of 2007 has included pervasive corruption; elections in 2011 that, while somewhat improved, were still marred by numerous cases of political violence and suspected vote fraud; and increasing levels of sectarian and religious violence. Ethiopia continued a decade-long trend of growing authoritarianism. In 2010, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi masterminded national elections that were thoroughly tainted by intimidation of opposition parties, independent media, and nongovernmental organizations. Meles has increasingly employed so-called antiterrorism laws to brazenly suppress any semblance of political opposition or independent media. South Africa, although still categorized as a Free country, has seen its democracy deteriorate as a result of political interference in the judiciary and threats from top government officials against the media. Sub-Saharan Africa in 2012 is a political minefield where in almost any election, desperate incumbents could trigger an outburst of repression, political violence, and ethnic conflict. With 18 countries scheduled to hold some form of elections in 2012,

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including Angola, Cameroon, Senegal, and potentially Kenya and Zimbabwe, democracy may deteriorate further if the balloting is not free, fair, and accepted by all parties. The continent suffers from leaders who have overstayed their welcome and would in fact be replaced if elections were fair. The international community needs to engage early in electoral processes; step up the pressure to prevent political elites from cracking down on the opposition, media, and civil society in the run-up to voting; and ensure that the electoral results are respected and a transfer of power takes place. Otherwise, subSaharan Africa will continue to slip back toward where it started in the early 1970s. ### The Pentagon's New View of Warfare (Washington Post) http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-pentagons-new-view-ofwarfare/2012/02/02/gIQAWRHAvQ_story.html 7 February By Walter Pincus The United States view of warfare has been changing. To deter potential conflicts, the nation will have forward-based sea, air and ground forces in strategic areas around the globe. It will also retain its nuclear triad of land- and submarine-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers. But no more big land wars (World War II, Korea, even Vietnam); no major short-term invasions (Kuwait, Iraq); or large, long-term stability operations (Iraq, Afghanistan). Certainly, no more nuclear warfare (Japan). Instead, the Obama administration has moved into the era of satellites and drones for intelligence and stand-off air attacks (Libya). If ground forces are needed, local, allied or United Nations troops can be used, some with the help of U.S. Special Forces teams for training or direction (Central African Republic). To go it alone, drones (Pakistan, Yemen), and again those Special Forces (Pakistan for Osama bin Laden, Januarys Somalia rescue). When Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta introduced the Obama administrations new strategic guidance he made his first point that the military will be smaller and leaner, but it will be agile, flexible, rapidly deployable and technologically advanced. It will be a cutting-edge force. Read: Special Forces. Panetta went on to say the United States would have an adaptable and battle-tested Army . . . capable of defeating any adversary on land. . . . But at the same time we will emphasize Special Operations forces.

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When it comes to funding, which is the proof of the pudding within the Defense Department, Panetta warned the services would face reductions, but when he discussed protecting budgets and in some cases increasing funding our investments in Special Operations forces topped the list. If there is any doubt about where President Obama is on the question, just look at the symbolism from Jan. 24 it wasnt lost on the military. With Special Operations Commander Adm. William McRaven sitting next to first lady Michelle Obama in the House gallery, Obama strolled into the chamber to present the State of the Union speech and stopped by Panetta to whisper, Good job tonight. It was a reference to the Special Forces rescue hours earlier of American Jessica Buchanan and Poul Hagen Thisted, a Danish citizen, who were being held by Somali pirates. The collaborative nature of Special Forces operations is an element often overlooked. Two days after Obamas congratulations to Panetta, Adm. James A. Winnefeld Jr., vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, pointed out that element in the Somalia rescue. We had Air Force aircraft, Army aircraft, Navy SEALs, and it was very, very well executed, he told reporters. The helicopters that pulled those hostages out of that camp were Army helicopters, he also noted, emphasizing that despite planned reductions, the Army is going to assume roles in Special Forces regional engagements after Afghanistan. Special Forces Command (SOCOM) has been growing exponentially since 2001, when after Sept. 11, President George W. Bush gave it responsibility for planning and conducting worldwide counterterrorism operations for the Defense Department (DoD). In 2008 that was expanded to include worldwide training and assistance planning for allies to meet the threat of terrorist networks. In 2009, Special Forces units were working in 60 countries. Today they are in, or rotating in and out of, more that 100 countries. A Jan. 11 Congressional Research Service (CRS) report put SOCOMs size at about 60,000 active duty, National Guard and reserve personnel from all four services and DoD civilians. That is up from some 35,000 in the late 1990s. At a House Armed Services Committee hearing Sept. 22, McRaven referred to the tripling of SOCOMs budget since the Sept. 11 attacks. Its fiscal 2012 budget, at $10.4 billion, was up 7 percent from 2011 and will be larger in the 2013 budget. And while $3.3 billion of fiscal 2012 was in the overseas war account, primarily for Afghanistan, the plan is to move much of that into the new core budget. McRaven also noted SOCOMs annual personnel growth of 3 to 5 percent . One estimate puts SOCOM at 70,000 by fiscal 2015. However, as the CRS report points out, while DoD is willing to add more people and missions, there are limitations on expansion because of stringent qualifications and training standards.

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The Marine Corps was an original holdout against Special Forces. Corps opponents had argued, according to one internal Marine report, that it would be an elite force within an elite force. That changed in 2005 when it agreed to establish the Marine Corps Special Operations Command (MARSOC), with the provision that it would only consist of 2,500 Marines who would be assigned for just five years. That number has already been increased 44 percent to provide combat and service support capabilities, and while the Marine Corps itself faces reductions over the next five years, those reductions will not come from MARSOC. McRaven previewed his commands growing role in the revised national strategy during his Capitol Hill appearance in September, but few realized it. He spoke of Special Forces in Afghanistan carrying out both counterterrorism raids and village stability operations. He also forecast that the projected conventional force drawdown in Afghanistan through 2014 is increasingly dependent upon significant SOF [Special Operation Forces] presence. He talked of Special Forces engaging and influencing key populations [elsewhere in the world], empowering local host nation forces, and increasing capability through partner development, all contributing to locally led defeat of threats. These forces, he said, are changing the global conditions that enable responsible local solutions to the violent extremism, insurgencies, and criminal enterprises threatening the national sovereignty and economic prosperity needed for a stable and peaceful future. To me, McRavens words embody the Obama Defense Departments new way of looking at warfare. The first test of this approach is coming in the next few months. It wont be in Afghanistan, Iran or Syria, but rather on Capitol Hill as legislators carry on their own form of warfare over the Pentagons fiscal 2013 budget. ###

END OF REPORT

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