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Subject: Impacts of climate change on the probability of landslides in Tramuntana Mountain Range, Mallorca, Spain.

Abstract The temperature and precipitation estimations for the 21st century for the whole basin of the Mediterranean Sea show that the changes are not going to be as extreme as predicted in the 1990s. The global general tendency is to believe that if the temperature will rise the consequences are going to be drastic. The precipitation in Mallorca is very uneven, especially in the Tramuntana Mountain Range, where rainfall is relevantly more intense than in the other parts of the island. The values of maximum rainfall are much lower than the ones predicted earlier by Mateos in 2007. She indicated 130 mm/24h of intense rainfall as the direct reason of a landslide occurrence. The actual cause was rainfall water accumulation, which in some cases was over 1000 mm. The results obtained recently should be able to contribute towards creation of an early warning system that would co-operate with Emergency Service and the Meteorological Centre. The alert threshold values would then be of over 800 mm of accumulated rainfall water and/or forecast of precipitation exceeding 90 mm/24 h. Introduction In the mountainous regions of the world landslides represent one of the most dangerous threats to local communities, infrastructure, businesses and constructions. Taking into consideration the predictions of the climate change in the future and all the consequences they bear, the probability of landslide activity will most probably change as well. The more extreme weather events will appear the higher landslide risk will occur (Crozier, 1986; Gostelow, 1991). The global warming threat, which has been one of the issues most talked about in the recent decade, is the vital point in the linkage of climate change and landslide occurrence. Hydrological regime and balance as well as precipitation are under direct influence of the temperature. They affect the distribution, frequency and movement of landslides. The basic rule is the more precipitation the higher risk of a landslide incident. There are, also, other factors known of triggering landslides such as: seismic movements (causing mainly rock falls); wind (specifically rock falls caused by leverage of root wads); and freezethaw cycles (predominantly rock falls initiated by the expansion of ice, during freezing, in cracks or creation of hydrostatic pressures at the back of the frozen rock face by freezing an uncovered face followed by quick warming). However, the nature of mass movements is quite complex. Multiple factors such as permeability, soil components, vegetation, slope angle or human activity also have to be taken into consideration. Thus, each scenario has to be investigated individually. The best way to secure the given community is to monitor the landslide triggering features. There are, though, different types of landslides and not every monitoring method can be used on every kind of landslip (Chung, 2005). The GCMs (General Circulation Models) are currently the most credible climate change development scenarios. Thanks to them it is possible to assume what kind of modifications the climate will undergo. The problem is when it comes to determining the local changes. The GCMs suggest the general pattern, but the regional alterations have to be verified separately. This allows obtaining the future precipitation and weather changes. Yet, to acquire the full overview on a landslide area, the past events have to be considered too. The past measurements allow calculating the probability of threshold exceeding precipitation in the following years. Thanks to this it is also possible to predict the most probable route of a landslide as well as the type and magnitude of it (Carter et al. 1996, Trenberth, 1997). Mallorca Island, located in the north-western part of Mediterranean Sea (fig.1), has been experiencing many destructive events instigated by landslides - especially the area of Tramuntana Mountain Range, which constitutes whole north-western part of the island. The historical documentation mentions landslides since the 17 th century. It also indicates the trigger factor which, in almost all cases such as debris flows, debris

slides and mudflows, was intense rainfall. In the Tramuntana Mountain Range it is usual to find slopes overlaid with coarse debris with relatively big voids between the particles. Having these, an intense rainfall may lead to a landslide occurrence in a very short time (Mateos, 2001).

Figure 1 The location of the Balearic Islands archipelago and location of the Tramuntana Mountain Range on the Island of Mallorca, Spain (Mateos, 2007).

This study aims to recognise the possibility of higher landslide occurrence in the region due to the climatic changes as well as critical view on the measurements taken in the case study area. Site description The island of Majorca is the biggest one in the archipelago of Balearic Islands in the western part of Mediterranean Sea. The total area of the island is 3,667 km2. It includes a variety of geographical areas, among which lies the Tramuntana Mountain Range, located in the north-western part of the landmass. It extends for 90 km and is on average 15 km wide. The highest point is Puig Major (1,445 m a.s.l.), but the average line of peaks is above 600 m a.s.l. The islands climate is warm, with hot and dry summers and mild winters. The Tramuntana Mountain Range falls under a typical mountainous climate scheme, which is the higher the altitude, the lower the temperature and the higher volume of precipitation. Apart from that, during the winter (October to March), winds from the southwest bring moderate temperatures with rainy and cloudy periods as well as warm and sunny spells. The other mass of air affecting the range comes from the north and north-east. Linked with low temperatures, it produces night frosts and occasionally brings storms, especially during the late autumn and early winter. Sometimes, however, the mass is accompanied by clear and cloudless skies. The summer (April to September), the sky is clear and solar radiation reaches the Earths surface at its full capacity. The temperature is high and practically there is no precipitation. This climatic regime causes unequal distribution of rainfall on the island. The Tramuntana Range can receive more than 1,200 mm per annum, whereas on the southern parts it rains less than 400 mm per year. In geological aspect, the Tramuntana Mountain Range is composed of carbonate origin rocks like limestones and dolostones. The majority of the slopes are shrouded with coarse debris varying in size from a couple of centimetres to several meters. The mountain range is directed towards north-west, which characterises of mild

southern slopes and uneven and steep northern ones with a large number of cliffs on the coast. (Mateos, 2007)

Case study The case study for this project was taken in area north-east of Port de Sller, ranging from 3948'18.87"N; 242'7.45"E to 3949'21.05"N; 243'39.08"E (fig.2). The following data was acquired in situ: General overview of the site (human activity and undertaken protection measures); GPS location readings for various slope instability evidence; The angle of fallen trees; Slope gradients; General estimation of vegetation and its durability.

Figure 2

Location of the researched area.

The case study area is an active landslide. The places shown on the map (fig.3) indicate the zones which bear the very recent visible slope activity evidence such as rockfalls, forest fires and multiple erosion features like patina, sandstone and clay intrusions, rillenk and big boulders. The south-western part of the researched area is partly inhabited and well secured from the potential landslide threat. There are several households and a road ending not much far away from the last one. As soon as the road ends the terraced area begins. Terraces are staircase-pattern stone walls built in order to hamper the slope advancement and are the substitute for vegetation as there are sheep farms around and trees are quite sparse. Further out to the north-east the area is not affected by human activities at all, where vegetation is the main agent binding the soil. The cliff, that was born after the landslide occurred, faces north-west and is still active due to the fact that there is multiple evidence of rockfalls just under its face. A very good example of the fact that the landslide is still active can be found on Google Earth. By changing the historical imagery it is possible to see how the landslide looked like in 2005 and by comparing it with the current view it is possible to see what alterations have occurred during the last several years (fig.3 and fig.4). The greatest changes happened to the cliffs face,

which has become steeper if not vertical in places. The fallen trees gradient varies but on average is 23.55. The slope gradient varies as well, but on average it is the same as the fallen trees. However, there are multiple places, where the gradient is quite high around 50 or 60. The slope where such high gradients exist and which are in the vicinity of inhabited locations lack basic protection features such as protection fences or terraces. The researched landslide is a typical example of a rainfall caused one. The protection measures that have been undertaken, in most of the places, are very relevant. Terraces successfully fulfil their role and the only kind of possible threat might be just under the cliff, where rockfalls may occur due to limestone being washed away. The area lacks one vital feature monitoring system. The zone is sparsely populated, but still a heavy rainfall warning system or water accumulation system would be very useful. The landslide will continue to advance due to the fact that not whole area is secured and the slope gradient in places is very high. Also, controlling and/or stopping this land feature would be cost ineffective and relevantly pointless, because of very low population and land usefulness.

Figure 3

Landslide activity landmarks and the view of the landslide in 2010

Figure 4

The view of the landslide in 2005

Methodology The majority of research was desktop based. The greater part of the data was acquired from journals. Google Earth was the other source, which allowed recognising, investigating and proper mapping of the researched area. The other part of the study was obtained at the case study area. All gathered data was combined and compared so as to obtain the satisfactory results, which allowed describing the forces driving the landslide as well as determining the vital points of the study. The following equipment was used during the field research: GPS Garmin device; Measuring tape; Compass with gradient scale. The desktop research involved web search (Google, Google Scholar, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Google Earth, and Google Maps) as well as field notebook, which contains all the vital points of the case study site such as slope gradients, fallen trees angles and land descriptive data. To visualise the GPS pinpoints GPS Import tool was used in the Google Earth program. This project would contain a lot more case study based research if there was no language barrier. The majority of important documentation about the researched area is held in Catalan and it was impossible to obtain them in English. Influence of climate change on landslides in Mallorca In the mountainous regions of the world landslides are considered a major cause of economic and human loss. They can be defined as downward and outward movements of slope forming materials under the influence of gravity (Varnes, 1978). There are various landslide triggering factors, such as intense precipitation, seismic activity or hydrological reasons, like river or sea slope undercutting (Crozier, 1986). During the precipitation case the pore pressure is increased by excessive percolation and infiltration of water resulting in reduction of the intergranular (resisting) forces alongside latent or current slide plane and thus raising the probability of a landslip occurrence.

Figure 5 Predicted alterations in surface air temperature for the four seasons, 20712100 minus 19611990. Units are C. DJF is DecemberJanuaryFebruary, MAM is MarchAprilMay, JJA is JuneJulyAugust, SON is SeptemberOctoberNovember. (Multi Global Model Ensemble) (Giorgi, 2007)

The very first step of predicting a landslides reaction to climate change is foreseeing the rainfall pattern. There are two methods of assessing future precipitation changes. The first one is to evaluate trends from the surveillance records and then apply and optimise them into larger scale and forthcoming times. The second technique used for future precipitation alterations is applying global climate models (GCMs), which in other words are climate change simulations. These models are three-dimensional

depictions of the earths climate scheme. They are described by the means of mathematical terms and thus can be used to reproduce climatic regime from the preindustrial era as well as to simulate the future conditions by presuming alterations in atmospheric composition. There are two main categories of models that can be distinguished: the first are global-scale ones, which are comparatively coarse-scale and the second ones, which are a lot more detailed, regional climate models. The modelling scientists produce global simulations more often as it is part of their research activities. Thus, the worldwide models are much more widespread. The regional ones are made only for smaller parts of the world so the amount of possible scenarios is much lower. To add more, the regional climate models are not as readily available for use by the scientific community.

Figure 6 Average changes in precipitation for the four seasons, 20712100 minus 19611990, B1 scenario. Units are % of 19611990 value. DJF is DecemberJanuary February, MAM is MarchAprilMay, JJA is JuneJulyAugust, SON is SeptemberOctober November. (Giorgi, 2007)

The temperature and precipitation estimations for the 21st century (fig.5 and fig.6) for the whole basin of the Mediterranean Sea show that the changes are not going to be as extreme as predicted in the 1990s. The global general tendency is to believe that if the temperature will rise the consequences are going to be drastic. From figure 6 it is possible to read that during winter the temperature rise is going to be around 2C and precipitation will drop by around 10mm. During spring and autumn the temperature rise will be slightly higher 2 - 3C and precipitation will decrease by 20mm. The temperature in summer will change most as it will increase by 3 or 4C; however, the precipitation will not change as much due to the fact that nowadays it is already very scarce. However, as mentioned before, the precipitation in Mallorca is very uneven, especially in the Tramuntana Mountain Range, where rainfall is relevantly more intense than in the other parts of the island. Following Mateos (2011), between 2008 and 2010 the coldest and wettest winters of the last 40 years were recorded in Mallorca. The precipitation was reaching very high values (296 mm/24h) and the rainfall water accumulated in the soil was two times the usual amount. During this excessive rainfall, abnormally low temperatures appeared. The highest parts of the mountain range experienced frost and ice. The outcome of this atypical weather conditions was 34 mass movements, of which 14 were rockfalls, 1 rock avalanche, 15 landslides and 4 karstic collapses. The afterward

analysis proved that the main factor of these movements was precursory precipitation of over 800 mm. The very low, as for the location, temperatures were the main cause of the rockfalls due to triggering a few freeze-thaw cycles. The other, minor factor was intense rainfall (over 90 mm per 24h).

Table 1 Values of the meteorological data related to the occurrence of landslides. For each case, the weather stations closest to the failure point were used. (Mateos, 2011)

Table 1 was produced by combining the information from local weather stations that were closest to the movements. The values of maximum rainfall are much lower than the ones predicted earlier by Mateos in 2007. She indicated 130 mm/24h intense rainfall as the direct reason of landslide occurrence. The actual cause was rainfall water accumulation, which in some cases was over 1000 mm. Contrasting to rockfalls, freeze-thaw cycles as well as the matter of altitude have little importance in landslide triggering. The results obtained recently should be able to contribute towards creation of an early warning system that would co-operate with Emergency Service and the Meteorological Centre. The alert threshold values would then be of over 800 mm of accumulated rainfall water and/or forecast of precipitation exceeding 90 mm/24h. For the cold period the threshold value should be lower. Having the properly working monitoring system the safety issues will no longer be a matter of concern (Mateos, 2011). Summary To summarise, the Tramuntana Mountain Range will experience very little of future climate change. The temperature and precipitation alteration will mainly affect the rest of the island. Stopping or trying to control vast areas of land in the mountain range is impossible for contemporary knowledge and technology, moreover, it is pointless due to the fact that nature will sooner or later lead to the point the mass movement will be inevitable. There are multiple proves that such interventions into the systems are in the very end escalating the problem, mainly because people encouraged by built protection system, settle in the areas that should be left uninhabited. The only points that protection would be of importance are roads, which often run through mountainous areas and are prone to get blocked or damaged by mass movements. The vital contemporary issue is an appropriately working forecast and early warning system. Also, inhabitants should be informed and trained for such case. Tourists, whose number is around 8.5 million per annum, who visit the island, ought to be informed as well. The good point is that the majority of tourists visit Mallorca during summer, when precipitation is scarce and probability of a mass movement occurrence is relatively low. Nevertheless, all precaution measures should be taken and multiple possible scenarios should be made. References: Carter T, Parry M, Nishioka S, Harasawa H (1996) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations. In: Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH, Dokken DJ (eds) Climate change 1995. Impacts, adaptations and

mitigation of climate change: scientific-technical analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 823833 Chang-Jo Chung (2005); Using likelihood ratio functions for modeling the conditional probability of occurrence of future landslides for risk assessment; Computers & Geosciences 32 (2006) 10521068; Crozier M (1986) Landslides: causes, consequences and environment. Croom Helm, London Giorgi F.; Lionello P. (2007); Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region; Global and Planetary Change 63 (2008) 90104 Gostelow T. P. (1991) Rainfall and landslides. In: Almeida-Teixeira ME, Fantechi R, Oliveira R, Gomes Coelho A (eds) Prevention and control of landslides and other mass movements. Commission of the European Community, Brussels, p 139161 Mateos R.M., Garca-Moreno I., Herrera G., Mulas J.; (2011); Recent mass movements in the Tramuntana Range (Majorca, Spain). Proceedings of the Second World Landslide Forum 3-7 October 2011, Rome Mateos, R. M., Ferrer, M.Y. &Gonzlez De Vallejo, L. (2001): Metodologa para el anlisis de la peligrosidad a los movimientos de ladera. Aplicacin en la zona de Sller (Mallorca). In: Proc. V Simposio Nacional sobre Taludes y Laderas Inestables, Vol. I., 355367. Rosa Mara Mateos, Jose Miguel Azan, Raquel Morales, and Manuel LpezChicano (2007); Regional prediction of landslides in the Tramuntana Range (Majorca) using probability analysis of intense rainfall p. 287306 Trenberth KE (1997) The use and abuse of climate models. Nature 386:131 133 Figures 2, 3 and 4 were acquired from Google Earth programme.

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