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Lakshmi N Mittal, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Aditya Mittal, Chief Financial Officer
7 February 2012
Disclaimer
Forward-Looking Statements This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words believe, expect, anticipate, target or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittals management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittals securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittals Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2010 filed with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Agenda
Safety performance
Annual Health & Safety frequency rate* for mining & steel
3.2 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
Key corporate social responsibility highlights: ArcelorMittal was recently named in global human resource firm Aon Hewitts list of Top Companies for Leaders. ArcelorMittal was ranked in the top seven companies in Europe.
Quarterly Health & Safety frequency rate* for mining & steel
1.6
On December 2, 2011 ArcelorMittal celebrated its 4th annual International Volunteer Work Day. Within this event, thousands of ArcelorMittal employees volunteer in one of the different activities that are carried out in its units to improve the lives of the people in the community. On October 13, 2011 ArcelorMittal was given the "Life Cycle Assessment Leadership" award by The Worldsteel Association, which recognises the quality of the work performed by the Life Cycle Analysis team of Global Research and Development, based in Maizieres.
1.2
0.8
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.5 1.2
0.4
0.0 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11
ArcelorMittals Health and Safety performance improved again in Q411 and FY11
* IISI-standard: Fr = Lost Time Injuries per 1.000.000 worked hours; based on own personnel and contractors
Snapshot
FY11 EBITDA of $10.1bn, 18.7% higher than FY10 FY11 Net income of $2.3bn, with Q4 negatively impacted by non-cash charges Own iron ore production 15.1Mt in 4Q11 taking FY11 to 54.1Mt (+10.5% y-o-y) Net debt at December 31, 2011 of $22.5 billion as compared to $24.9bn at September 30, 2011; reduction of $2.4bn during 4Q11 Dividend proposed at $0.75 per share for FY 2012 Guidance: 1H12 EBITDA likely to be lower than the 1H11 but above 2H11 levels
Group EBITDA (US$mn)
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 1H 0 2009 2010 2011 2H 1H 1H 2H 2H
1H
Net Debt
30.0 25.0
3.2 2.3
20.0 15.0
2.2
2.0x 1.5x
1.1
2008
2009
2010
2011
1H12 EBITDA is likely to be lower than the 1H11 but above 2H11 levels
4
2011 capex of $4.8bn vs. planned $5-5.5bn; FY 2012 capex expected to be approximately $4-4.5bn
5
Market outlook
US and European Apparent Steel Consumption (ASC)** (million tonnes per month)
17 15 13
EU27 USA
40
11
35
9
30
7
25 20 15
7 -0 an J 7 l-0 Ju 8 -0 an J 8 l-0 Ju 9 -0 an J 9 l-0 Ju 0 -1 an J 0 l-1 Ju 1 -1 an J 1 l-1 Ju
5 3
Ja n07 Ja n08 Ja n09 Ja n10 Ja n11 Ju l-0 7 Ju l-0 8 Ju l-0 9 Ju l-1 0 Ju l-1 1
Global ASC -5.2% in 4Q11 vs. 3Q11 [+2% y-o-y] China ASC -10.2% in 4Q11 vs. 3Q11 {+0.2% y-o-y]
Global leading indicators have rebounded US energy, equipment investment and automotive remain strong as manufacturing rebounds from the summer slowdown In Northern Europe, uncertainty over the euro debt crisis and falling demand in the South are acting as a drag on growth. Latest indicators (German Jan12 PMI>50) are more encouraging Southern Europe in recession as austerity measures are extended, consumers cut back and construction weakens Output in China in Q411 slowed on tight credit and weak external demand with HSBC PMI staying below 50 (official PMI 50.5)
60
55
50
45
40
USA
35
30
Ja n06 Ju l-0 6 Ja n07 Ju l-0 7 Ja n08 Ju l-0 8 Ja n09 Ju l-0 9 Ja n10 Ju l-1 0 Ja n11 Ju l-1 1 Ja n12
Global leading indicators have rebounded somewhat over the past couple of months
8
US residential construction likely to recover (from a very low level) as home sales and construction permits rise
Ja n02
Expansion
65 60 55 50
USA Architectural Billings Index
45
Contraction 40 35 30
Soft landing still expected in China but the government is only loosening policy slowly putting off the recovery until Q212 Construction slowed rapidly toward year end with newly started construction very weak in Dec11. However, the slowdown is exacerbated by the Nov11 deadline to start 10m public housing units Risk of a hard landing as controls on private real estate market cause distress among developers but we expect central government to ensure this is offset by increasing public housing
Ja n05
Ja n06
Ja n07
Ja n08
Ja n09
Ja n10
Ja n11
Steel production was very weak in Q411 but we still expect a pick-up through Q112 to peak levels in Q212 and ASC growth of 5% in 2012
As expected exports averaged less than 4mmt in Q411 compared to a 4.9mmt peak in Mar11
07 08 09 10 11 Ja n6 7 8 9 0 -0 -0 -0 -0 -1 -1 Ju l 1
Ja n-
06
Ja n-
Ja n-
Ja n-
Ja n-
Ju l
Ju l
Ju l
Ju l
Ju l
Ja n07
Ju l-0 7 Ja n08
Ju l-0 8 Ja n09
Ju l-0 9 Ja n10
Ju l-1 0 Ja n11
Ju l-1 1
Ju l-0 8
Ju l-0 9
Ju l-1 0
Ja n07 Ju l-0 7 Ja n08 Ju l-0 8 Ja n09 Ju l-0 9 Ja n10 Ju l-1 0 Ja n11 Ju l-1 1
Flat Long
Ja n08 Ja n09 Ja n10 Ja n11 Ju l-1 1
Ja n07
Ju l-0 7 Ja n08
Ju l-0 8 Ja n09
Ju l-0 9 Ja n10
Ju l-1 0 Ja n11
Inventory levels are now considered normal; there had been a sharp destock in Europe Q411
11
Ju l-1 1
Ja n12
Apparent steel consumption growth of +6.3% in 2011; we estimate growth ~4.5-5%* in 2012
* Base case assumption is low single-digit growth in developed world apparent steel consumption (ASC); a consumer-sentiment driven technical recession in EU and US could lead to a low single-digit decline in developed world ASC; a deeper Euro-debt crisis with negative YoY GDP growth could see low double-digit decline in developed world ASC
12
1200 1100
100
1000
90
900
80 70 60 50 40 30
Ja n08 Ja n09 Ja n10 Ja n11 Ja n12 Ju l-0 8 Ju l-0 9 Ju l-1 0 Ju l-1 1
Financial Results
14
ArcelorMittal Dofasco, Hamilton Port and Steel works
Q1'11 EBITDA
Sellin
Q3'11 EBITDA
Others**
Q4'11 EBITDA
15
Group P&L
($million)
Depreciation: (1220) impairment: (228) Interest: Forex and other: (429) 13 Weighted Avg No of shares: Current tax: Deferred tax: (185) (648) 25 EPS = $ -0.65/share 1549 Diluted Weighted Avg No of shares: 1549
Restructuring
(219)
4Q 2011
Non-controlling
1714
-1667
47
177
-416
0 -1000
(0)
($million)
(477) 85
Pre-tax Profit
Finance Cost
Discontinued Operations
Operating Income
EBITDA
1549
3Q 2011
-1,240
Non-controlling
$ 0.43/share
2,408
659
(679)
Capex
1,843
(1,475)
2,878
1,714 1,403
EBITDA
1403
24,887
830
289
332
98
22,513
Net M&A
Dividends
Forex
Others
Net debt decreased primarily due to improved operating cash flow and cash inflow from Macarthur deal
18
Upgraded railway line linking minePort and Baffinland ArcelorMittal Dofasco, Hamilton with port at Liberia Steel works
19
12000
10000
8000 2H 6000
2H
4000
2H 1H 1H 1H
2000
1H
1H12 Group EBITDA expected to show improvement over 2H11 but lower than 1H11
20
Questions
21
Appendix
22
ArcelorMittal Dofasco, Hamilton Port and Steel works
80
Canada
14
Target of 10% growth in iron ore in 2012 Strategic contracts forecast of 16Mt by 2015*
84
11 5
60 3 40 49 20 54 1 1
0
2010 Operational Brow nfield Greenfield effeciency 2011 Operational Brow nfield Greenfield effeciency 2015 plan
23
Expansion of our Mont Wright mine at AMMC and concentrate capacity to 24Mt pa due 2013 (from 16Mtpa post operational improvements) approved Expansion capitalising on existing infrastructure, product quality and experienced workforce Capex C$1.2bn for mine and concentrator plant expansion* Cash cost is circa US$35/tonne Advantageously located with easy access to European and US markets
20 15 10 5 2011 1 14
9
Canada base
15
2013
Strategic advantage from exclusive use of own rail and port facilities
* Total scheme investment of US$2.1 billion includes investment in expanding the pellet plant which has not yet been committed to
24
Liberia progress
Liberia greenfield progress Industrial location of mine
Sierra Leone
Atlantic Ocean
Buchanan
Yekepa
Ivory Coast
Total project capex (Phase 1 and 2) US$2 billion Capex of US$0.7 billion by end of 2011
8
`
15
4
4
2011
2012F
2015F
Segment Highlights
Segmental EBITDA (US$mn)
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100
FCA
Q4'10
FCE
Q1'11
Long
AACIS
Q2'11
AMDS
Q3'11
Mining
Q4'11
Q4'10
FCA
Q1'11
FCE
Q2'11
Long
Q3'11
AACIS
Q4'11
AMDS
Q411 saw underlying EBITDA decline versus Q311 in all business segments reflecting weak operating conditions
26
EBITDA decreased to $237m from $420m in Q311 and increased from $158m in Q410
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Crude steel production increased 2.4% to 6.0Mt from 5.9Mt in Q311 primarily due to return to normal production following downtime in North America operations in Q311 offset by lower production primarily in South America operations.
Steel shipments decreased 4.4% to 5.5Mt from 5.7Mt in Q311. Shipments declined in all operations with the exception of the US operations. ASP decreased 4.6% to $868/t from $910/t in Q311
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
FCA EBITDA decreased sharply from Q311 primarily due to price cost squeeze
27
EBITDA decreased to $26m from $367m in Q311 and $543m in Q410 Crude steel production decreased 10.4% to 6.6Mt from 7.4Mt in Q311 primarily due to weaker market sentiment primarily in Europe Steel shipments decreased 3.1% to 6.2Mt from 6.4Mt in Q311 due to weaker market conditions and strong destocking activity ASP decreased 6.6% to $954/t from $1021/t in Q311 Operating performance in Q411 was negatively impacted by impairment charges of $56 million relating to various idled facilities, offset by non-cash gains of $163 million relating to dynamic delta hedge (DDH) income and $93 million recorded on the sale of carbon dioxide credits.
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
FCE profitability declined with price cost squeeze amidst weak operating conditions
28
EBITDA decreased to $338m from $438m in Q311 and from $315m in Q410 Crude steel production decreased 2.4% to 5.5Mt from 5.6Mt in Q311. Seasonally production was lower in the Americas due to drawdown of inventory and the weaker market demand. Steel shipments decreased 2.3% to 5.8Mt from 6.0Mt in Q311 due to the summer holiday period in Brazil and lower demand in North America and Europe
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Long Carbon profitability declined due to lower volumes and lower prices
29
EBITDA decreased to $238m from $284m in Q311 and increased from $215m in Q410
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Crude steel production increased 2.5% to 3.6Mt from 3.5Mt in Q311, primarily due to improved production in Ukrainian operations Steel shipments increased 2.0% to 3.1Mt from 3.0Mt in Q311
ASP declined 7.5% to $713/t from $771/t in Q311
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
600
EBITDA decreased to ($19m) from $48m in Q311 and $87m in Q410 Steel shipments increased 7.6% to 5.0MT in Q411 as compared to 4.6MT in Q311 ASP declined 6.1% to $948/t from $1010/t in Q311
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
AMDS profitability declined due to lower margins from European operations due to weak market
31
Mining
Mining EBITDA (US$mn)
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Q4'10
Q1'11
Q2'11
Q3'11
Q4'11
EBITDA was lower at $779m as compared to $842m in Q311 and higher than $570m in Q410 Own iron ore production 15.1Mt increased 7.2% as compared to 14.1Mt in Q311 primarily due to Liberia and Mexico Total iron ore shipments increased 12.8% to 15.3Mt (vs. 13.5Mt in Q311) of which 8.5Mt at market prices (vs. 6.7Mt in Q311) and 6.8Mt on cost-plus basis (vs. 6.9Mt in Q311) Own coal production increased 5.6% to 2.2Mt in Q411 (vs. 2.1Mt in Q311)
Coal (million tonnes)
Own Production Shipped at "Market price" Shipped at "Cost-plus"
4Q 10
1Q 11
2Q 11
3Q 11
4Q 11
4Q 10
1Q 11
2Q 11
3Q 11
4Q 11
Mining benefited from higher overall production volumes offset by lower average selling prices following the change to the seaborne benchmark pricing system
Definitions: Market priced tonnes represent amounts of iron ore or other raw materials from ArcelorMittal mines that could be sold to third parties on the open market. Market priced tonnes that are not sold to third parties are transferred from the Mining segment to the Companys steel producing segments at the prevailing market price. Shipments of raw materials that do not constitute market price tonnes are transferred internally on a cost-plus basis.
32
Net Debt (USD billion) & Net Debt/Average EBITDA** Ratio (x)
35 2.0x
1.6x
30 25 20 1.0x 15 10 5 0 0.0x 1.5x
67 days
100 80 60 40 20 0
0.5x
2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 07 0 2Q 8 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 08 2Q 09 0 3Q 9 4Q 09 1Q 09 2Q 10 3Q 10 1 4Q 0 1Q 10 2Q 11 3Q 11 4Q 11 11
1Q
0 2Q 7 0 3Q 7 4Q 07 0 1Q 7 0 2Q 8 0 3Q 8 0 4Q 8 0 1Q 8 0 2Q 9 3Q 09 0 4Q 9 0 1Q 9 1 2Q 0 1 3Q 0 1 4Q 0 1 1Q 0 2Q 11 1 3Q 1 1 4Q 1 11
Net Debt (USDbn) - LHS Net Debt / Average EBITDA - RHS
1Q
33
9.7
4
8.6
2 0 2012 Bonds
2.8
2013 Convertibles
2014
2015 Other
2016
Liquidity lines:
$4bn syndicated credit facility matures 06/05/15 $6bn syndicated credit facility matures 18/03/16 $0.3bn bilateral facility matures 30/06/13
Liquidity at 31/12/11
Contacts
Daniel Fairclough Global Head Investor Relations daniel.fairclough@arcelormittal.com +44 207 543 1105 Hetal Patel UK/European Investor Relations hetal.patel@arcelormittal.com +44 207 543 1128 Valrie Mella European and Retail Investor Relations valerie.mella@arcelormittal.com +44 207 543 1156 Maureen Baker Fixed Income/Debt Investor Relations maureen.baker@arcelormittal.com +33 1 71 92 10 26
Thomas A McCue US Investor Relations thomas.mccue@arcelormittal.com +312-899-3927 Lisa Fortuna US Investor Relations lisa.fortuna@arcelormittal.com +312-899-3985
35