17th EPS1

GOVERNMENT
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OF INDIA
MINIS:1'.R.OF POWER
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CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY
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REPORT ON SEVENTEENTH ELECTRIC POWER SURVEY OF INDIA

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(BROUGHT OUT IN FULFILMENT OF CEA'S OBLIGATIONS UNDER SECTION 73(a) OF THE ELECTRICITY ACT 2003)
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MARCH,
2007
NEW DELHI
Central Electricity Authority
RAKESH NATH
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FOREWORD
The forecast of electricity demand is an important input for power sector planning to optimally utilize the scarce resources. The electrical energy being clean and the most convenient form of energy, having preference over other forms of energy, is a vital input for economic development of the country. The Electric Power Survey Committee conducts surveys for the power demand and holds discussions with all the stakeholders on regular basis and make demand forecast not only f,lr use in power sector planning but in other sectors of economy, i.e., coal, rail, industry, etc. Our country has been continuing to face power shortages in spite of appreciable growth in generation. The demand for electrical energy is increasing at the faster rate and shall continue to grow in tune with the projected growth of economy. The forecast of electricity demand is done on short and long term basis using international methodologies of time series analysis and end use method duly validated by the results obtained from economic and electricity growth indicators. The short term electricity demand also accounted for compensating the shortages in the assumed base year. The T&D loss reduction programme was introduced in consultation with the State Electricity Rcgulatory Commissions who furnish the plans of T&D loss reduction for IIth Plan. Wherever such programme was not available for full period of IIth Plan extrapolated data has been considered. The inter-regional diversity factor was also applied for peak demand for the first time in view of the formation of a strong Nation:tl Grid during the I I th Plan. The Rural-Urban division of the forecast of electricity consumption was also done for the first time giving spl'cial importance to rural electrification and development in line with National Electricity Policy. With all these features the utility of the document would improve over previous editions of Electric Power Survey of India. The forecast of electrical energy consumption and energy requirement prepared by the 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee has projected growth rate of about 10% & 8% respectively for
17th Electric Power Survey
Central Electricity Authority"
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the period till 11th Plan end against the actual growth rate of less than 5% during 9th & initial years of 10th Plan. The corresponding peak demand growth is 9% for period upto II th Plan end against actual achievement of 5.3%. The report of the 17th EPS unlike earlier EPS Reports has considered National Electricity Policy for providing power to all by 2012. The various growth rates considered have given higher weightage to the latest power consumption trend to capture the technological changes and energy conservation efforts in all categories of electricity consumption. T&D losses have been a concern for power sector since these have been very high as compared with other countries. The present T&D losses including unaccounted energy are about 30% and there is need to reduce these losses through efficient management and the best operation & maintenance practices of the transmission and distribution systems so that more energy is made available for actual consumption at reduced costs. As per the T&D loss reduction programme proposed by the Utilities, these are assumed to be brought down to about 22% by the end of 2011-12 and gradually reducing to 16% by 2021-22. The electricity demand projections are based on achieving higher energy consumption and wiping of the energy deficit for sustaining 8-10% GDP growth, policy issues and the present performance of the power sector. To achieve the load growth as per projected demand is a challenging task for the power sector in general and Discoms in particular to create necessary distribution network for planned growth in each sector of electricity consumption. A strong transmission & distribution infrastructure would ensure availability of reliable and quality power to spur the interests of industrial and commercial sectors for achieving faster economic growth and planning large sized power projects. I hope that the results of the 17th EPS would serve useful guidelines for all State Govts., utilities, developers, manufacturers and other stakeholders for advance planning for their growth.
New Delhi Dated the 30th March, 2007
(Rakesh Nath)
________________________________
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Electricity Authority
V.S. VERMA
MEMBER
(PLANNING)
Central Electricity Authority & Ex officio Addition~i1 Secretary, Gov!. of Jndi"
PREFACE
Electricity being clean and convenient source of energy plays a major role at every stage of development of a nation. The Electricity Act 2003 entrusts CEA with a function to prepare the National Electricity Plan for next five years and the perspective plan for the next ten years. In order to complete the above task, it is imperative to have the forecast of the electric load for the next 10-15 years period. This would be the basis for preparation of the National Electricity Plan. The load forecast also serves as a tool for future planning for capacity addition by various utilities and other stakeholders. The industries get a good guideline to plan for future growth dependhg on the availability of electricity. CEA has been regularly bringing out the Electric Power Survey Reports for this purpose. 16th EPS is the latest in the available series which gives the forecast till the year 2016- 17. The 17th Electric Power Survey Committee was entrusted with the task of conducting 17th Electric Power Survey of India by the Central Electricity Authority in November, 2003. The main task of the Committee was to review the electricity demand projections in detail upto 2011-12 and to project the perspective demand upto 2021-22. The eminent members of the 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee are the heads of SEBs, TransCos, Pvt. Licensees & Electricity Departments of States/UTs, representatives of Central Ministries (Water Resources, Coal, Heavy Industries, Power), DYC, PGCIL, BBMB, BEE & REC, Planning Commission & Railway Board, economist from NCAER, Statistical Scientists from C.S.O. & I.S.I., expert from The Energy Resources Institute (TERI) and representatives of Associations of Industries (Special Invitees). In the first meeting held in January, 2004, the members of the Committee adopted the methodology of End Use Technique and Trend Analysis for electricity demand forecasting. Unlike before, this Committee had to face the challenge of accommodating the new dimensions of economic measures. It had to take into account the various policy decisions of the Govt in the power sector such as rural electrification and electricity to
; nh tiectric Power Survey
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all by 2012, achieving a GDP growth rate of about 9-10%, a minimum per capita consumption of 1000 units / year etc. The key issues considered by the Committee were energy shortage due to restrictions & unscheduled cuts, per capita availability to be enhanced to 1000 units by year 2011-12, energy efficiency & conservation measures, special impetus on rural electrification & irrigation, thrust to economically weaker States & Regions (North Eastern Region). The rural-urban division was also an important factor considered in this forecast. The fulfillment of electrification of all rural households as per the provisions of National Electricity Policy and the development of commercial and irrigation sector in rural areas shall result into about 50% share in the total electricity consumption on all India basis during the year 2011-12. The Committee at its Regional Power Survey Offices started collection of data on the basis of rural urban division and working of demand as per the approved methodology. The Secretariat also interacted with the State Regulators for drawing up the programme of reduction of T&D losses and expected load factors of the State(s). The information of projected population was also collected from Registrar General of India for determining the expected number of domestic customers on rural-urban basis. The Secretariat also interacted intensively with Railway Board for finalization of electricity requirement of railways traction. It was observed that due to recession in the 8th and early 9th Plan Period, the electricity sector had a very meager growth rate during these periods. It was, however, decided to match the energy growth with that of the GDP keeping the electricity ratio between GDP growth and electrical energy growth optimistic. The preliminary forecast thus reconstructed, was reviewed in the 2nd meeting of the EPS. Most of the States except very few responded appreciably. The forecast were again reviewed in the 3rd meeting of the Committee in August, 2006. The Committee had suggested that the shortages in electrical energy and peak load may be compensated in the assumed base year of the forecast and have a uniform growth rate to achieve the final targets derived. The result of the compensated forecast has been graphically represented for the first time in this report. At one stage the Committee felt that the results of the forecast may be tested by adopting Multivariate Econometric Model. A Sub-Committee of Experts was constituted for the purpose. An expert in the field was appointed for preparing the background paper for the Expert Sub-Committee. The base paper was submitted by the expert.
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The main components of the Report are as follows: 1. 2. 3. Methodology of forecasting of electricity demand. Summary of short term & long term forecast. Forecast of electricity consumption category wise year wise rural-urbanwise, electricity requirement, peak load, T&D Loss and load factor on All India, Regional and StatefUT basis for short term in tabular form. StatefUT wise sheets depicting pattern of electricity utilization, electricity consumption category wise year wise rural-urban wise, electricity requirement, peak demand, T&D loss and load factor for short term. Forecast of electricity consumption, electricity requirement and peak electric demand, T&D loss and electric load factor on All India, Regional and StatefUT basis for long term beyond 20 I 1-12 in tabular form. All India, regional and State/UT wise annuaVplan wise growth rates of electricity requirement, electricity consumption, peak electric load for short and long term.
4.
5.
6.
I wish to express my sincere thanks to all the Members of the 17th Electric Power Survey Committee for their able guidance and whole-hearted co-operation and constructive suggestions made during the deliberations of the Committee. The Committee is deeply indebted to the representatives of the State Electricity Boards and other Utilitiesl Organizations for their co-operations in finalization of the report. I would also like to place on record the valuable support given to me by Shri R.C. Nakul, Chief Engineer, Shri Ashok Kumar, Director and Shri S. Biswas, & Shri B.C. Mallick, Deputy Directors, CEA and other officials associated in this exercise.
New Delhi 30th March, 2007
(V.S. Verma) Member (Planning), CEA Ex Officio Additional Secretary, Govt. of India & Chairman, 17th Electric Power Survey Committee
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Centra! Electricity Authority
17th Electric Power SUlvey
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
With the unbundling of various utilities, the number of entities which supplied the data increased and the coordination between various Discoms, generation companies and planning agencies became more and more complex which resulted in prolonged interaction and finalisation of the electrical energy forecast. The data bank used for preparation of the forecast mostly pertained to 8th & 9th Plan. The data supplied by some of the States particularly Eastern and North Eastern States had been inconsistent. This required lot of efforts to derive the real indicators of growth in these regions. This report is a result of intensive interaction with the representatives of the utilities who through various deliberations gave valuable suggestions. Sh.V.S.Verma, Member (Planning) CEA and the th Chairman of the 17 EPS Committee has been the guiding force in adopting various strategies for formation of this report. Shri Rakesh Nath, Chairperson, CEA took keen interest in the preparation of the report and had been regularly giving useful suggestions for improving the contents of the report. The report was also discussed in Planning Commission with Hon'ble Member (Energy) Dr.Kirit S. Parikh and Sh.Surya P. Sethi, Principal Advisor(Energy) and others who gave valuable suggestions which were extremely useful for refining the forecast. There had been interaction with MOP and other formations of th CEA who have guided on various aspects of the 17 Electric Power Survey Forecast. The framework of the 17th EPS was prepared by Shri V.B.Gupta, the then Chief Engineer, DMLF Division who has superannuated during the course of preparation of the report, and Shri Ashok Kumar, Director. The final report is the out come of the hard work done by various officers of CEA in Planning Wing. The credit for the report is also to be shared with the family members of the officers who devoted their holidays and late night hours for bringing out the report. It is not possible to include the names of all who made exceptional contribution particularly the assistance provided by the PAs, Stenos, clerical staff and peons of the Planning Wing of CEA. The study required complex analysis of different issues and the contributions made by the officers and officials of the Electric Power Survey Group in the Central Electricity Authority are worthy of appreciation. Any omission and error is responsibility of the Secretariat of the EPS. The specific contribution by the following officers of CEA is appreciated and acknowledged with thanks. Sh. Ashok Kumar Sh. Saumen Biswas Sh. H.C. Mallick Sh. R.K. Goel Sh. Hardayal Singh Sh. Sovaran Singh Director Deputy Director Deputy Director Deputy Director Assistant Director Assistant Director Discussion & overall supervision. Eastern and North Fastern Regions and A&N Islands. Southern & Western Regie!1. General & Administrati'/e support. General & Administrative support. Northern & Western Region.
17th Electric Power SUNey
,~~~
Sh. Y. P. Kohli Sh. R.K. Arora Smt. Santosh Golani Smt. Pushpa Gulati Smt. Shalu Sharma Sh. Ishwar Chander Sh. P.S. Yadav Sh. Ramesh Chander
Assistant Director Personal Assistant Personal Assistant Personal Assistant Stenographer V.D.C. V.D.C. Peon
Correspondence & coordination.
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Stenographic and Secretarial Assistance.
Other official support.
Sh. S. C. Maheshwari Sh. B. Gupta Sh. D.K. Meena Smt. Suman Bala
Deputy Director Assistant Director - I Assistant Director - II Assistaut Director-II
Collection & validation of basic data of the constituents of Northern Region
Cl'i,Wvey Office, Mumbai

Sh. Sh. Sh. Sh. O.P. A.P. D.B. A.c. Singh Puranik Bisht Suresh Deputy Director (promoted)} Deputy Director Assistant Director - II Assistant Director - II Collection & validation of basic data of the constituents of Western Region
Sh. Sh. Sh. Sh. Sh.
T.Rajender Reddy, C. Venkata Subbaiah A.Bose, Thomas K. Chako A Kesavan
Deputy Director(Retired) Deputy Director Assistant Director-I Assistant Director - I Assistant Director - II
Collection & validation of basic data of the constituents of Southern Region
Regional Power Survey Office, Kolkata

Sh. S.K. Bhattacharya Sh.S.K. Deb Sh. P.N. Sarkar Sh. P.K. De Deputy Director Assistant Director-I Assistant Director - II Assistant Director-II
Collection & validation of basic data of the constituents ofER & NER.
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New Delhi Dated the 30lh March, 2007
(R.C. NAKVL) Chief Engineer (DMLF) & Member Secretary 17th Electric Power Survey Committee
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== == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == == Annual Diversity Factor - Inter Regional Annual Diversity Factor - Inter State Annual Electric Load Factor All India Annual Peak Electric Load Compounded Annual Growth Rate Central Electricity Authority Electrical Energy Consumption Electlical Energy Requirement Econometric Model Electric Power Survey Eastern Region/Energy Requirement Electric Power Survey Committee Gross Domestic Product Giga (==109)Watt Hour Giga (==109)Watt High Tension (High Voltage) Integrated Energy Policy Kilo Watt Low Tension (Low Voltage) Million Kilo Watt HourlMillion Unit Mega Watt North Eastern Region North Region Partial End Use Method Rural Electrification Distribution Backbone Regional Power Survey Office Shortage Compensation Method Southern Region Transmission & Distribution Loss 12 Tera (==10 ) Watt Hour Utilities Union Territory WeEtern Region in place of 'UTTARANCHAL'.
ADF-IR ADF-IS AELF AI APEL CAGR CEA EEC EER EM EPS ER EPSC GDP GWh GW HT IEP kW LT MkWhlMU MW NER NR PEUM REDB RPSO SCM SR TDL TWh U UT WR
Note: Read 'UTTARAKHAND'
]1
INDEX OF CONTENTS
W19'1;Ij:
I71!1 Electric Power Survey
INDEX OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER
-
DESCRIPTION Foreword Pr'Pjilce

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PAGE NO. 3
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CHAPTER-I
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INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY ---------~ 1.0 Background 1.1 Econometric Modelling of the Demand Forecast 1:2 The StatisticslI5aia--n--------~------------------------------ --
23
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25 -n26
27
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1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6
Aims & Ohjectives Definitions Methodology Assumptions
29
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3I 40
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CHAPTER-II
SUMMARY AND REVrEW 2.1 Electricity Forecast Digest 2.2 Energy Demand and the Peak Load Demand
n_n
_____
All India
aIlcfStiteIUT-\Vlsc
Forccas(~--------------- -- ------48
45 46
Taj)je-2.2~-------- -A1Clndw-and-Si"taUrw{se-Forccast:-Peak
2.3 Vision heyond 20] 1-12 tb\T:t~~h~,TfB---~~~lnfn~~an~:e~~:c~:qa,~i~:%
Electrical Energy Requirement
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I-Charts
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2.2A, 2.2B . Charts 2.3A, 2.3B ---------------~ Charts 2.4A, 2.4B Charts 2.5A, 2.5B Charts 2.6A, 2.6B Charts 2.7A, 2.7B to Charts 2.41A, 2.41B:
Northern Region: Energy Requil"".rn_e~and _1'''.ak...Q''.manl.!_ -_-_-:~~~_Western Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand 58 ~-~Southem Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand --tiff Eastern Region: Energy Requirement and Peak Demand 62 North Eastem Region: Energy Requirement and 64 Peak Demand ----------f-----_--Energy Requirement and Pcak Demand: 66 Chandigarh, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Goa, Gujarat. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Bihar, J!larkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam. Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep.
15
17th Efectric Power Survey
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CHAPTER
DESCRIPTION
PAGE NO
Chart Chart Charts Charts 2.43.5 Charts Charts 2.44.35
2.42 2.42.] 2.43 2.43.1 to 2.44 2.44.] to
Chart 2.45
-~
Chart 2.46
-~
Chart 2.47 CHAPTER-III
Review of Forecast (PEUM) All India Scene Review of Forecast (PEUM): Regional Scene Northern Region, Western Region, Southern Region, Eastern Region, North Eastern Region Review of Forecast (PEUM): State/UT wise scene Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Chandigarh, Goa, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Oadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep Comparison of Eight Year CAGRs of Actua1s and Forecast of Energy Requirement Comparison of Eight Year CAGRs of Actuals & Forecast of Peak Load Review of Forecast for Rural
136 136 137 137 142 142
177 178 179
Table 3.] Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3.5 Table 3.6 Table 3.7 Table 3.8
SHORT TERM FORECAST ~f)fe~on Category-wise Forecast upto 20]]-]2 (l'EUM) 0--All India - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattern of utilization of electrical energy Northern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattem of utilization of electrical energy Western Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattern of utilization of electrical energy Southern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattem of utilization of electrical energy -f--Ea~tern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattern of utilization of electrical energy -I---North-Eastern Region - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattem of utilization of electrical energy ----Islands - Summary of categorywise forecast, pattern of utilization of electrical energy All India and State/UT wise Electrical Energy Requir,-,ment ar Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities) (2003-04 to 2011-12)
183 ]84 185 J86 187 188 189 190--
]6
CHAPTER Table 3.<)
DESCRIPTION
PAGE NO.
T:lWe3.10 Table 3.11 Table 3.]2 Table 3.13
'=--~Tab!~ 3.14
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]9] All India and State/UT wise Peak Electric Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities) (2003-04 to 2011-12) -~----192 All India and State/UT wise Electrical Energy Consumption (Utilities) (2003-04 to 2011-]2) -----All India and State/UT wise Transmission & Distributi()n 193 (Utilities) (2003-04 to 2011-12) Losses -All India and State/IJT wise Annual Electric Load Factor 194 (Utilities) (2003-04 to 201l-12) 195 All India and Stale/UT wise Electrical Energy Consumption-Tota]-Rural (Utilities) (2003-04 to 20] ]-12) All India and State/UT Wise Electrical Energy I 196 Consumption- Total - Urban (Utilities) (2003-04 to 2011-l2) -~ _.~--~ Tables on Category-wise Electricity Consumption upto 2011-12 (PEUM) ..
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Table 3.]5
r-------~ Table 3.16

-__ __ M ____ ._. ___
All India and State/UT wise electrical energy consumption domestic consumers ___ _. ~~ ___- ~ ___ .u_____ __ ~_ All India ,md State/UT wise electrical energy
M
197
__
________
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198
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~,-.~---.----u.--u---~-----------.-...-----]99 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy consumption - public lighting -~--~-1----All India-and StateiUTwise'electrica] energy _.u_._. 200 Table 3.]tl consumption - public water works --- -.------------ ._-.---_. -All India and State/UT wise electrical energy 201 Table 3.19 consumption - irrigation ~ pump sets/ state tube wells/ irrigation schemes --_._~'fable 3.20 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy 202 consumption - LT industries .. 20J _Table 3.21u_u __ ~ All India and State/UT wise electrical energy consumption - HT industries -- -------204 Table 3.22 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy consumption - railway traction ------All India and Statc/UT wise electrical energy 205 Tabfe'3.23 consumption - non-industrial consumers (HT bulk supply) ----All India and State/UT wise electrical energy "n /1'ablC'3:f4- -~ 206 consumption - Domestic - Rural (Utilities) 2003-04 to 20]] -12 L____ ~_ Table 3.17
consumption
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17
17th Electric Power SUivey
Central Electricity Authorjty
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CHAPTER
DESCRIPTION
PAGE NO.
Table 3.25
Table 3.26
Table 3.27
All India and StatelUT wise electlical energy consumption - Commercial - Rural (Utilities) 2003-04 to 2011-12 All India and State/UT wise electrical energy consumption - Irrigation - Rural (Utilities) 2003-04 to 2011-12 All India and StatelUT wise electrical energy consumption - Others - Rural (Utilities) 2003-04 to 2011-12 STATEWISE FORECAST
207
208
-~
209--
-~
CHAPTER-IV
---
=-, Table
4.1 Table 4...! Table 4.3

- -~-- ----------
Tables on Category-wise Electricity Consumption and Electricity Demand Forecast upto 2011-12 (PEUM) Delhi: Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities) 213 --- -----Haryana : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 214 Himachal Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast 215 (Utilities)
.- f------
Table 4.4
--
Jammu & Kashmir: (Utilities)
Summary of category wise forecast
216
f--------
Table 4.5 Table 4.6 ---~------------Table 4.7 ---------------Table 4.8 ------Table 4.9 Table 4.10 Table 4.11 ---------------Table 4.12
--.~~--
Punjah: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) 1-------Rajasthan: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)-~_. Uttar Pradesh : Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities)
--
217
f-- ----
218 219 220 22] 222 223 224 225
~-----
Uttaranchal : Summary of categOlY wise forecast (Utilities) Chandigarh : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Goa : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
--
--
Gujarat
: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) : Summary of category wise forecast
Madhya Pradesh (Utilities)
Table 4.13
~-------
Chhattisgarh : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Maharashtra : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Daman & Diu: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)
--
Table 4.14 Table 4.15
---226 227
-------------------------------------18
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CHAPTER
DESCRIPTION
PAGE NO.
Table 4.16
--
Table 4.17 Table 4.18 Table 4.19 Table 4.20 Table 4.21
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Table Table Table (..Table Table

---.--
4.24 4.25 4.26 4.27 4.28
----.-
L-Table4.31 Table 4.32 Table 4.33 Table 4.34

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Table 4.35 CHAPTER - V Table 5.1

-
Oadra & Nagar Haveli: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Andhra Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Kerala : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Karnataka : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Tamil Nadu : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Pondicherry: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Bihar: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) West Bengal : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Jharkhand : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Orissa: Summary of category wise forecast (UtiJities) Sikkim: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Assam: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities)'. Arunachal Pradesh : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Manipur: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Meghalaya: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Mizoram: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Nagaland: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Tripura : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Andaman & Nicobar : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) Lakshadweep : Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) LONG TERM FORECAST
228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240
-
--._--
24] --242 243 244 245 246

'-'--
247
-- /-.-----
Table 5.2
Tables on Long Term Forecast of Electricity Demand All India & Regional Summary of Long Tenn Forecast (Utilities) State wise Long term forecast at Power Station Bus Bars (UtiJities)
251 252
19
,'lih Electric Power Survey
CHAPTER
DESCRIPTION
PAGE NO.
Table 5.3
-,----------------
----
------------
Long term forecast Electrical Consumption (Utilities) Long term forecast Losses (Utilities) Long term forecast Factor (Utilities)
Energy & Distribution

--
253
Table 5.4
-----------
Transmission
254
-----
Table 55
Annual Electric Load
255
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(Utilities)=_
Table 6.1 AIJ India and StatelUT Wise - Growth in electrical energy requirement at power station hus bar~ (2003-04 to 201 1-12) (Utilities)
--------------------------
259
----
----------
Table 6.2
Table 6.3
---- -------r----------------------------r---.
All India and StatelUT wise - Growth in total electrical energy consumption (2003-04 to 2011-12) J.LJtilities_) ----Long Term Forecast : Compounded Annual Growth Rates of Electrical Energy Requirement and Peak Electric Load (Utilities) Long Term Forecast Compounded Annual Growth Rates of Electrical Energy Consumption (Utilities)
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All Indw and StatelUT wIse - Growth in peak electric load at power stations bus bars (2003-04 to 2011-12) (Utilities)
260
I
I
I
261
__________ 111ble 6.4
--_ 262
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------1-----------------------
Tallie 6.5
263
_
Annexure
----I Aml~xu~e
- I
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--
Office Order regarding constitution Electric Power Survey Committee
of Seventeenth
--
267
------
- II
IAnnc;u-re
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Order regarding constitution of Expert Committee Econometric Model FOIecast T;;-h1~;;_n-Growth-i~clfconsumption out of captive Generation Forecast of electricity (2003-04 demand Demand
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on
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of electricity-to 2011-12)
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upt" year Forecast

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I Annexul
Usmg ECOf:ometnc Model Comparison of ForeCaSts of Ail India Elcctric~ll Energy Requirement Using PEUMfSCM, IE? and EM
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272 273
C - VI
----,
2gX 1
________________ ~
20
CHAPTER-I
"_~~w J*'~'.*,i".
17th Electric Power SUlVey
CHAPTER - I
INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

1.0 BACKGROUND
The 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee was constituted by the Central Electricity Authority on 24th November, 2003 with the concurrence of the Ministry of Power. A copy of the Office Order setting up the Committee is placed as Annexure-I. The ternlS of reference of the Committee were as under: (i) (ii) To forecast year-wise electricity demand for cach State, Union Tcrritory, Region and All India in detail up-to the end of 11thPlan i.e. year 2011-2012. To project the perspective electricity demand for the terminal years of 12'h and 13th Five Year Plans i.e. year 2016-2017 and 2021-2022.
The Committee held its first meeting on 14thJanuary, 2004 and discussed the methodology to be adoptcd for forecasting the electricity demand on short term (5-7 years) and long timc frames and the 'proformae' to be used for collecting data from the State Transmission Utilities or Electricity Departments or Electricity Boards of the 35 States/Union Territories. Based on the vicws expressed by the members of the Committec, it was decided that thc Partial End Use Methodology (PEUM) described in the Section-5 of this report would used for conducting 17th Electric Power Survey of India to work out electricity demand forecast and that the profornlae circulatcd in the] ,t meeting would be used for collecting data. The 2nd mecting of the Committee was held on 26th August, 2005 wherein the draft report of the Committee proposing forecast of electricity demand upto the year 2011-12 for utility systems was discussed and a decision was taken that the members of the Committee would furnish their detailcd observations on thc content of the draft report within a fortnight. The observations and views of the members of the Committee & State Electricity Regulatory Commissions were incorporated in the forecast of the concerned States / Union Territories and the revised forecast(s) were sent to the concerned State Transmission Utilities or Electricity Departments or Electricity Boards of the States / UTs. The forecast of electricity demand were revised further for certain States / UTs after holding discussions or on the basis of written
conll1lunication.
The 3'd & final meeting of the Committee was held on 23'd August, 2006 wherein the revised draft report of the Committee circulated as agenda was deliberated upon as per following record-notes of the meeting:
23
Central Electricity Authority,:&lf~~? ;
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(i)
A presentation was made by the Member-Secretary of the Committee on various aspects affecting electricity demand. During the presentation it was expressed that short term electricity demand in terms of electrical energy requirement and annual peak electric load had been done by making compensation for the shortages experienced on All India, Regional and State/UT levels during the year 2004-05. The exercise of the electrical energy forecast under Partial End Use Method has been done on the basis of electrical energy consumption by various categories/sections of energy consumers for the short tenn period upto year 2011-12. The electricity shortages have been assessed for the HT industry through data collection from over 1000 industrial units where it was observed that the reported power cuts causing production loss were less than 1% apart from the notified peak load restrictions to enable the industries to reschedule the production plan for optimal utilization. The transmission and distribution losses in various States/UTs are very high. The National Electricity Policy lays stress on reduction of the losses to international level. Transmission & Distribution losses at present arc of the order of 30% on All India basis and vary from 19-45% for major States. These losses arc to be brought down through adoption of various O&M practices, energy conservation, renovation & modernization of the Transmission & Distribution system and surveillance of unauthorized electrical energy consumption. Based on an exercise canied out in consultation with Regulatory Commissions and the Electricity Boards/State Power Utilities, the All India T&D Loss worked out to 22% at the end of 11th Plan. Serious efforts would need to be made by various transmission and distribution utilities to bring down the T&D losses to bclow 22% at the end of 1 Ith Plan.
(ii)
The demand projections made by the 17th Electric Power Survey Committee by partial end use method were discussed with representatives of the States/UTs. Some states desired that forecast for their States be improved based on the per capita electricity consumption of 1000 units as spelt out in the National Electricity Policy. It was explained that the per capita consumption figure appearing in the National Electricity Policy was the national average and cannot be applied to any particular State as such to work out the demand figures. The demand projections worked out were already optimistic. Some of the members also expressed that non-achievable targets may not be projected and they should be in line with the future developments.
(iii) The draft report/presentation given in the 3'd meeting contained the year wise pcak demand and energy requirement for the each y~ar upto 2011-2012, for All India and the various Regions by compensating shortages in the base year (2004-05). Representatives from States desired that the year wise peak demand and energy requirement demand be incorporated State/UT wise also.
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8: \lethudolog-y
24
/$Ia", '~:'4~f" entral C
(iv) The electricity demand forecast has been made on optimistic consideration so as to achievc and sustain GDP growth rates of 8-10% during the 11th Plan period. Infrastructure in transmission and distribution net work for various categories of electricity consumption would, accordingly, need to be developed at a rapid pace in close co-ordination with stake holders. It was also decided that the achievements of the infrastructure and the electricity load growth would be reviewed after two years of the submission of the report so that necessary initiative could be taken up for meeting the desired growth rate in the electricity consumption in various sectors. The electricity demand projections would also be reviewed for the StateslUTs which actually achieve high growth rates in the electricity demand. The various points discussed in the meeting have been reviewed and incorporated in the final forecast based on the specific requirement of various StateslUTs at respective Annexures and Tables. 1.1 ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE DEMAND FORECAST
To fulfill the requirements of the National Electricity Policy, an Expert Committee of 11 members was constituted vide letter dated 31.03.05(Annexure-I1) to forecast demand using econometric model considering demand influencing factors for which economic indicators shall be available and taking into account the projected growth rates of different sectors of economy. Prof. D.N. Rao, the Head of the Department, Centrc for Economic Studies and Planning. School of Social Sciences, Jawahar Lal Nehm University, New Delhi was appointed as a Resource Person to undertake the job of preparing base paper for 17th EPS using econometric model. Prof. Rao made a presentation before the Expert Committee on 12th September, 20U6. The projections made by Econometric Modelling which were found on lower side were revised by Prof. Rao and a revised report was submitted incorporating various observations made hy members. Thesc were further deliberated in a meeting taken by Dr. Kirit S. Parikh, Member (Energy), Planning Commission. The other members of the Committee also participated. Still there were gaps in the projections made by Econometric Modelling. The projections were at lower side. It was found that the gaps were mainly due to the following reasons: (i) The Time series data of electricity consumption used for establishing correlation tt)! econometric model did not include consumption in industries out of captive generation. therefore, leading to lower forecast in respect of year 2011-12 and onwards. The indices have been considered for the period when the electricity growth as well as the GDP growth were low.
(ii)
The comparison of three sets of forecast, i.e., PEUM, Econometric Model and as made in the RepOlt on Integrated Energy Policy (August 2006) of the Planning Commission are given at
25
Chapter J . Introduction & Mcthodoloc;\
17th Electric Power
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Annexure- VI of this Report. It was decided that the report of the 17'h Electric Power Survey Committee be released after including a comparative statcment showing gaps and the reasons for gaps between the three sets of energy forecast on All India basis. It was also felt that a separate study be conducted from an expert regarding forccast of electricity demand using multi-variatc econometric model by the Authority and the results revised. The report furnished by the Resource Person on Econometric Annexure- V. 1.2 THE STATISTICS/DATA Model is enclosed at
The Annual Electricity Statistics covering category-wise ultimate consumption of clectrical cncrgy, availability of clectrical energy, Transmission & Distribution losses, mid-year population of persons, category-wise connectcd electric load, number of consumers, number of electrified villages, number of energized irrigation pump sets, aggregate capacity of in'igation pump sets, etc. are furnished by thc Utilities / Licensees / Electricity Departments / Electricity Supplying Cooperative Societies of the States / Union Territories to the Central Electricity Authority for bringing out annual publication titled "General Review - All India Electricity Statistics". The statistics of the past 10-15 years as published in the General Reviews have been used for creation of data base for 17th Elecliic Power Survey of India. Various additional information such as T&D losses, irrigation pump scts encrgisation programme, Railway Traction consumption, etc. were collected by the Secretariat of the 17th Elcctric Powcr Survey Committce from the State Transmission Utilities, Electricity Departments or Electricity Boards of the States/UTs vide the proformae approved by the Committee in respect of rural & urban areas separately for the period w.e.f 1997-98 to 2011-12 which included thc information rcgarding electricity demand asscssment for electricity distribution licensecs. The programme of reducing transmission & distribution losses and also improvement of annual electric load factor due to implementation of Demand Side Management, advance techniques of electric load management & differential tariff for peak and off-peak period upto the year 2021-22 was collected by thc Sccretariat of the 17th EPSC from State Electricity Regulatory Commissions. Monthly statements of power supply position brought out by Grid Management Division of CEA werc referred for actual clectrical energy requirement & availability, peak electricity demand & peak met and Inter-State & Inter-Regional Diversity Factors for the past. Railway Board/Ministry of Railways supplied the State/UT wise data of electricity demand for railway traction for the period upto 2011-12 based on their programme for railway track electrification and expansion.
Chapter
I . Introductioll & Methodology
26
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Annual reports brought out by Regional Power Committees were consulted for load curves and Inter-State Diversity Factors. The annual data regarding electricity demand, consumption & captive generation and production in respect of more than 4000 HT Industries(Existing & prospective) with electricity demand of I MW and above, was collected, examined and compiled for individual industries on annual basis by the four Regional Powcr Survey Offices of CEA for the purpose of using the same in forecasting exercises. Region-wise and State/UT wise data-base was created and updated by the f(llIr Regional Power Survey Offices of the Central Electricity Authority located at New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Kolkata with an objective to complete preliminary exercises for forecasting of the electricity demand. 1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
The primary objective of the electrical energy forecast is to assess the electricity demand for States/UTs so that the States/UTs are able to plan and arrange the electrical energy to meet demand in full and provide electricity connections to all applicants. The States would thus draw the strategy to install their own generation capacity for availability of electricity and enter into power purchase agreements with the surplus States/Generating Companies. The EPS forecast makes projections of the aggregate power demand over the year and also detailed forecast for various categories of electricity consumption; so that the utilities arc able to plan suitable infrastructure for transmission & distribution of eleCl1icity. The demand forecast for various categories of consumption would facilitate States to identify priority sectors and develop optimum infrastructure within the limited resources. The electricity demand forecast also works as a tool for planning the Demand Side Management (DSM) strategy on long term basis for optimizing the peak demand and also plan long term tariff policy. The 17th Electric Power Survey of India encompasses various features for fulfilling aims and objectives of the National/State Policies framed by the Govcrnment(s) in their policy documents and guidelines. Some of the important objectives of policy arc described below: The National Electricity Policy notified by the Govl. of India lays down followint: objectives and due consideration has been given to these while formulating the electricity demand forecast: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) Access to electricity: Available for all house-holds in next five years Availability of power: Demand to be fully met by 2012. Energy and peuking shortages to be overcome and adequate spinning reserve (at least 5%) to be available. Per capita availability of electricity to be increased to over) 000 units by 2012. Minimum consumption of I unit per house hold per day as a merit gtJod by year 2012.
27
Chapter
I : Inlroductioll
& Meth()d()l()~_\
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An action plan for reduction of losses with adequate investments and suitable improvement in governance should be drawn up by State Electricity Regulatory Commissions so as to bring these in line with International practices by year 2012In order to reduce the requirement for capacity addition, the difference between electrical demand during peak periods and off peak periods would have to be reduccd. Suit3ble load management technique should be adopted for this purpose. Differential tariff structure for peak and off peak supply and metering arrangements should be conducive to load management objectives. Regulatory Commissions should ensure adherence to energy efficiency standards by utilities. The State Governments would prepare a five year plan with annual mile stone to bring down transmission and distribution losses expeditiously. In agriculture sector, the pump sets and water delivery system engineered for high efficicncy would be promoted. In the industrial sector, energy efficient tcchnologics should be used and energy audits carried out to indicate scope for energy conscrvation measures. Motors and drive systems arc the major source of high consumption in agricultural and industrial sector. Energy efficient lighting technologies should also be adopted in industries, commcrcial & domestic establishments. Reliable rural electrification system will aim at creating Distribution Backbone (REDB). the Rural Electrification
(vi)
(vii) (viii)
(ix) (x)
High voltage distribution system is an effective method for reduction of technical losses, prevention of theft, improvcd voltage profile & better consumer service. It should be promoted to rcduce LT/HT ratio keeping in view the techno-economic consideration.
The Central Electricity Authority issued 'Guidelines for reduction of transmission & distribution losses' in February, 2001 to all Utilities/ Electricity Departments/ Licensees. The guidelines state that it would be reasonable to aim for the energy losses in between ]O-l 5 % in di fferent States taking into consideration the Indian conditions such as development in the transmission and distribution sector to far flung rural areas, quality of T&D equipment and meters available in the country, maintenance practices, configuration of system, its spatial jlllisdiction, nature of loads, etc. The guidelines quote that according to a study carried out by Electric Power Research Institute(USA), the losses of various elements of T&D system are a,; pel"below:
Step-up transformers and EHV transmission system. Transformation to intermediate voltage level, transmission system & step down to suh-trdI1Smission voltage level. Sub-transmission system and stcp-down to distribution voltage level.
------.-----------.----
1.5
to
3.0
2.25 to 4.5 4.0 to 7.0
,, =:1 Tot~!},osses
('harter I . Introduction
(d)
I J)iS.'l~ib..~liO~I.'es and service connections.

_
& Methodology
28
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However, in the demand forecasting exercise, the T &0 loss for each State ha~. been decided in consultation with the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions or State Power Utilities. Many States/UTs confirmed that the Governments had announced new industrial policy to promote and boost industrialization at already existing and new up-coming Special Economic Zones & Industrial Estates. 1.4 1.4.1 DEFINITIONS Electrical Energy Consumption (EEC)
ERC of a system is aggregate of annual electrical energy consumptions of all categories of llitimate consumers as metered at the premises of ultimate consumers connected to that system. 1.4.2 Electrical Energy Requirement (EER)
Electrical energy requirement of a power system is the sum of annual electrical energy consumption by all categories of the ultimate consumers and the Transmission & Distribution losscs in the system during supply of elcctlicity to these consumcrs. The EER would also be equal to tou!l electrical energy generation plus import of electrical energy from outside the system minus the auxiliaries energy requirement of the power stations and export of electrical energy outside the system. The Energy Requirement are depicted in the block diagram below:
L Consumer End
Generation End
\Vhen, R = Glcctrical energy requirement of a power system at power station bus-bars
29
Chapter
I . Introduction & ?\Ielhodolog"\
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= Gross electricity generation = Electricity consumption in auxiliaries of Power Stations as metered I = Electrical energy imports from other Systcms/States/UTs E = Electrical energy exports to the other Systems/States/UTs C = Total electricity consumption at consumer end L = Losses during transmission & distribution of electrical energy
G A 1.4.3 Annual Electric Load Factor (AELF)
at bus
Annual Electric Load Factor is the ratio of the aggregate electrical energy requiremcnt during the year to the electrical encrgy that would hc rcquircd if thc annual peak clectric load is incident through out the year. (Electrical Energy Requirement in GWh) x 10S Annual Electric Load Factor (%) = -----------------------(Annual Peak Electric Load in MW) x Hours in a year (8760) 1.4.4 Annual Peak Electric Load (APEL) Annual Peak Electric Load of a power system, as used herein, is the maximum simultaneous electric load of the system which occurs during the fiscal year as measured by actnal deliveries at generating station bus and/or bulk sources. It would thus be equal to maximum of coincident power generation within thc system plus import of power from outsidc thc system less demand of auxiliary systems of power stations and expol1 of power outside the system during a fiscal year. Some of the States/UT have isolated gcneration from Rencwable Energy Sources and Mini/Micro hydro power stations which arc not connected to the grid and accordingly the peak electric loads indicated in the report are the sum of non-coincidental peak electric loads of the individual systems and thc grid system. Regional peak ekctric load as used herein is the simultaneous peak electric load of the Region after applying suitable Inter-State Annual Diversity Factor (ADF-IS) on the aggregated peak electric loads of States and Union Territories forming part of the Region. Peak electric load for tbe country as a whole is thc arithmetic sum of regional peak electric loads divided hy the Annual Diversity Factor-InterRcgional (ADF-IR) plus APEL of Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep. 1.4.5 Annual Diversity Factor (ADF) Various factors that detcrminc the Annual Diversity Factor arc described below: (a) I. The permanent factors: Time phasing between areas located at far east and far west.
Chapu:r I: Introduction & Methodology
30
2. 3. 4. (b) I. 2.
The proximity of an area/StatelUT to the sea and its geological features. Proximity of an area/State/UT to the hills/mountains because of its geographical location. Diversified cultural activities. Variable factors: Meteorological variations e.g. variations in rainfall / ambient temperatures / conditions of draughts/floods/cyclones as climatic irregularities & natural calamities. Degree of demand side management (DSM) for flattening of load curve.
Annual Diversity Factor is a factor indicative of non-simultaneous occurrence of annual peak electric loads in the States/UTs of a Region or non-simultaneous annual peak electric loads of different Regions of India resulting into a simultaneous annual peak electric load of the Region or the mainland of India which is lesser than the arithmetic sum of annual peak electric loads of all States/Union Territories of the Region or all Regions of the mainland of India respectively. Annual Diversity Factor -Inter State (ADF-IS) as used herein is the ratio of aggregate of the annual peak electric loads of the systems of the constituent States/Union Territories of the Region to the annual simultaneous peak electric load of the Region. Annual Diversity Factor -Inter Regional (ADF-IR) as used herein is the ratio of aggregate of the annual peak electric loads of the regional systems of all five Regions of the mainland of India, excluding Islands of Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep, to the annual simultaneous peak electric load of the mainland. 1.5 1.5.1 METHODOLOGY .'orecasl upto 2011-12
All India, Region-wise, State-wise and Category-wise forecast has been made in detail on yearly basis for the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 for utility systems only.
Partial End-Use Methodology (PEUM) is a combination of International forecasting methodologies i.e. time series analysis and end-use method. PEUM has been used for forecasting the electricity demand. The time series method has been used to derive growth indicators giving higher weightage to the recent trend so as to incorporate the benefits of the energy conservation initiatives and new technologies. However, in cases where no definite trend emerged, chronological or maximum AGR-maximum weightage have been used for forecasting electricity demand.
31
Chapter I. Introduction & Methodology
1.5.1.1.1 Categories of Consumption The All India, Region-wise and StatelUT-wise forecast of electricity consumption has been made on yearly basis for each of the following categories of consumption: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Domestic Commercial Public Lighting Public Water Works Irrigation Industrial (LT, HT less than I MW each, HT I MW and above each) Railway Traction & Bulk Non- Industrial HT Supply
CO
(g)
ih)
The forecast has been carried out for each State & Union Territory for rural & urban area separatc!y and aggregated to obtain the estimate for the Region/ All-India.
The electricity consumption in these sectors has been estimated on the basis of number oC electricity consumers (Mid-year) and their specific elcctlical energy consumption (Average electricity comumption per consumer).
The Electricity Policy provides Corpower to all and accordingly all the households by 2011-2012 have been considered for providing electricity connections Cor working out of the electricity demand projection.
Electricity consumption per consumer hus been estimated after studying the past trends and taking into account the anticipated improvements in the life style and electricity supply position. A gradual decrease in the level of electricity consumption per consumer has been noticed in majority of the States particularly in the Stales/VTs who have been suffering from serious electricity ,horrage. The ,pecific consumption reduction has also been noted on account of new connection in large number. Specific consumption in domestic category is expected to improve ,)11 account of increased avail".bility of electrici'lY. Accordingly. marginalIy rising trend has bcen
Chapter
J : InlroductlOn & M<:thodoJog:
32
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considered for all States/UTs to take care of electricity supply restrictions, accelerated rural electrification programme. (c&d) Public Lighting & Public VVat~r VVorks
cuts. etc. and
The forecast of consumption of electricity in these two categories has been based on estimated connected electric load (kW) and the average electricity consumption per kilowatt of connected electric load (kWhlkW). The connected electric load has been projected on the basis of past trends and increase in public lighting and water supply facilities. The number of hours of operation has been determined on the basis of past trends and making adjustment for the effeet of power cuts for public lighting subject to practical limits. (c) Irrigation Category
Pumpsets/Tubewells The following formula has been adopted for forecasting the electrical energy consumption of this category. Y = Where Y = N S Electricity consumption in kWh Number of pump sets as at the middle of the year NxSxH
= Average capacity of pumpset in kW at the middle of the year

Average electricity consumption per year per kilowatt of connected electric load
(kWh/kW)
H =
Number of Irrigation Pump-sets The electricity demand for energisation 01'pump-sets for the period 2004-05 to 2011-12 has been based on the programme of pump set installation furnished by the Electricity BoardsfUtilities after giving due consideration to actual progress achieved in the past subjected to total potential of energisation of irrigation pump-sets. Capacity of Irrigation Pumpsets The average capacity of pump sets has been worked out by studying the growth trend of mid ycar figures for both the connected electric load and the number ot pump sets in the past years. Based on these trends, the growth in average capacity of pump set for future was determined.
33
Chapter
I Introduction & tv1clhudolog.)
i~O~~~
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Average Electricity Consumption per kW per year A study regarding the growth of average electricity consumption per irrigation pump set in the past indicates that there is a decreasing trend in most of the States. However, marginally rising trcnd has been considered to take care of extensive irrigation practices, multiple cropping. depletion in under ground water table and the restrictions in electricity supply hours. Lift Irrigation Schemes The consumption for each lift irrigation scheme has been separately estimated on the basis of connected electric load and anticipated hours of operation adopting End-use methodology.
(f)
Industrial Category for the industrial sector has been estimated under three sub-
The electricity requirement categories viz. (i) L.T. Industries
(ii) H.T. Industries each with a demand less than I MW (iii) H.T. Industries each with a demand of I MW & above. The electricity consumption in the first two categories has been projected on the basis of pasr trends and scope for development in future. It was observed that the number of and consumption in LT Industrics is rising rapidly. Therefore, higher growth has been accorded to LT Industries in view of its larger contribution in economy. In the case of third category, projection has been made separately for each industrial unit considering the reported production on the basis of information furnished by the industrialuuits. From the overall electrical energy consumption in an industrial unit obtained by the above method, the demand to bc met by captive power plant has bccn deductecl to arrive at the demand on the utility system. The projection of self consumption from captive electricity generation has been madc on the basis of past level of self consumption and taking into account the likely augmentation of captive electricity generation capacity in future. A table giving State-wise estimated electricity demand of the captive power producers which is expected to be met from their own electricity generation is eneloscd at Annexure-III.
Chapter I: Introduction & Methodology
34
,LH~;' Central Electricity Authority
(g)
Railway Traction
The estimates for this category are based on the requirement of existing railway tracks and the track electrification programme envisaged by the Railway Authorities/Rail Corporations. The estimates as supplied by the Railway Board / Metro Rail Corporation were discussed in detail and finalized. (h) Bulk Non-Industrial
HT Supply
The electricity consumption in this category covers electricity used in Research Establishments, Port Trusts, Military Engineering Services, power projects (construction supply), etc. The electricity requirements by specific consumers where data was available have been considered for the forecast. For other loads the projections were based on the past trends. 1.5.1.1.2 Total Electrical Energy Consumption at Consumer End The estimates of tctal electrical energy consumption at consumers' end have been anived at by aggregating the sector-wise projections. 1.5.1.1.3 Transmission and Distribution Losses The pDst trend in T&D losses for each State, Union Territory and All India has been studied. The factors which have contributed towards setting of trend in losses are:
(i)
Extension States/UTs.
of the L.T.lOistribution
net work covering
more and more areas of the
(ii)
Low load densities and long lines.
(iii) Introduction of flat rate rariff for agricultural consumers in many of the States. (iv) Unauthorized and undetected use of electrical energy.
The losses due to first two causes can be termed as 'Technical Losses" and could be brought down by carrying out system improvements. The losses due to other causes can be termed as "Unaccounted Energy" which can be brought down only by administrative steps, introduction of metered supply to reflect t.he true level of electricity consumption by the consumers and energy andits of electricity supplying feeders, etc. Any reduction in the "Unaccounted Energy" brought down by above methods could be accompanied by a corresponding increase in the sale of energy. Therefore, reduction in electrical energy loss during transmission & distribution of electricity has been considered for future projections as per loss reduction plan informed by State Electricity Regulatory Ccmmissions / Boards / Utilities. Most of State Electricity Regulatory Commissions furnished only short tenn targets for reduction.
35
Chapter
I : Introduction & Methodology
The Central Electricity Authority issued 'Guidelines for rednction of transmission & distribution losses' in February, 2001 to all Utilitiesl Electricity Departmentsl Licensees. The guidelines stated that it would be reasonable to aim for the energy losses in between 10-15 % in different States/UTs taking into consideration the Indian conditions such as development in the transmission and distribution sector to far flung rural areas, quality of T&D equipment and meters available in the country, maintenance practices, configuration of system, its spatial jurisdiction, nature of loads, etc. Above factors have been given due weightage while deciding the lower limit ofT&D loss under T&D loss reduction programme by 2021-22.
1.5.1.1.4 Electrical Energy Requirement (EER) at Generating End
The electrical energy requirement at generating station bus-bars has been arrived at for each StatelUnion Territory by adding the T&D losses to the total electrical energy consumption at consumers end.
1.5.1.1.5 Annual Electric Load Factor (AELf)
The electric load factor of a power system depends on the pattern of utilization of different classes of load. If the system feeds block indnstrialloads like Aluminium, Fertilizer etc. having high electric load factor, the overall system ,oad factor would also tend to be high. In regard to estimation of electric load factor for future, if the pattern of utilization of differerit classes of load does not differ appreciably from the past in terms of percentage of total electric load, then it was assnmed that the system load factor of the past may continue. If, however, as is usually the case, the pattcrn is anticipated to change with respect to total electric load due to gradual withdrawal of restrictions Icuts I shedding & under frequency conditions, then it is necessary to estimate the future electric load factor. A study was made to ascertain how the changes in the load mix may int1uencc the load factor. Since thcre wcrc restrictions on peak demands and on the use of energy in thesc years, the electric load factor was obtained after making due allowances for the declining restrictions, power cuts and under freqnency conditions. Based on these studies and analysis of future electric load mix, the future electric load factor for each StatelUnion Territory has been determined. The effect of peaking loads like that of domestic seClor and commercial sector due to accelerated programme of rural electrification shall cause declining trend in Annual Electric Load Factor upto the year 2011-2012 depcnding upon the magnitude of rural electrification. In the States like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Rajasthan, Madhya Prauesh etc. the effect is estimated to be more pronounced. In some StateslUTs, the load factor may not decline sharply due to implementation of demand side management, advance technique" of load management & differential tariff for peak & off peak hours. In few States I UTs, due to increase in the share of hase electric loads like industrial loads, the load factor is estimated to improve or maintain its present level.
Chapter
I : Introduction & Mdhodology
36
~~'"
I.S.I.I.n
Annual Peak Electric Load (A PEL)
Annual Peak Electric Load for each StatelUnion Territory has been arrived at by applying the estimated annual electric load factor on the electrical energy requirement at the generating station bus-bars. Regional peak electric load has been arrived at by applying Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-Statc (ADF-IS) on the aggregate of non-simultaneous peak electric loads of the States and Union Territories forming part of the Region. The following ADF-IS have been estimated applying gradual reduction due to expected decrease in the severity of Inter-State diversity for Regional APEL projections for the year 2011-2012 as under: Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North Eastern Region 1.08 1.07 1.04 1.04 1.08
All India Peak Electric Load has been worked out by dividing the sum of the non-simultaneous peak electric loads of all the regions, excluding the islands, by thc ADF-IR and then adding APELs of islands to it. An ADF-IR of 1.03 has been estimated for the year 2011-12 applying gradual reduction in the existing ADF-IR due to expected decrease in the severity of Inter-Regional Diversity.
IS!.!. 7 Steps Taken to over come the Effect of Cuts. Restrictions
and Under- frcquencj
Conditions The category wise forecast of electricity consumption was made adopting high growth rates of variables to ensure that the projections are made for gradual improvements in power supply position with emergence of surplus electricity supply position in year 20] 1-2012 having adequate spinning reserve as laid down in the National Electricity Policy. A separate set of forecast of electricity demand has been included in this report adding electricity shortage in full to the electrical energy available and peak met for the year 2004-2005 and then applying uniform growth rates for assessing the electricity demand for achieving the targets/objectives as per the Naticlnal Electricity Policy in year 2011-2012.
37
Chapter I' Introduction & Methodology
1.5.1.1.8 The PEUM methodology described above has been applied for rural-urban areas separately for the StateslUTs for which the bifurcated data was made available, otherwise estimates were made based on rural-urban division of population/ households or other logics.
1.5.1,2
5'//(ir!agc (olJ1pcJ/satioll
Central Electricity Authority collects hourly data regarding electrical energy not served or peak demand that could not be met due to scheduled cuts(Restrictions imposed ), unscheduled cuts(Load shedding) and under-frequency conditions, from the StateslUTs on daily basis and compiles the information for calculating electricity shortages. These shortages generally affect the domestic, commercial or LT industrial consumers i.e., the electric loads mainly responsible for peaking electricity requirement. These shortages have been treated as factual and total. Therefore, year-wise and StatelUT-wise electrical energy requirement has been worked out upto year 2011-12 on the basis of 2004-05 data after adding one time shortages in the base year to the electric peak met and electrical energy available. The forecast is placed under Chapter II of this report. It is a macro level forecast and, therefore, category-wise consumption & rnral-urban wise break-up is not available. The forecast has been modulated to achieve the targets/objectives of the National Electricity Policy in the year 201112.
1.5.1.3 !:"i'OIl.JI}li'lrii'
Mode/ling Technique
The econometric model selected by Prof. Rao of JNU was a multi variate model using following economic indicators: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Total per capita GDP Sectoral GDP (All India & State-wise) Electricity Intensity Electricity Price Structural Changes (Service & export oriented sectoral) electricity
The regression model equation used to work out projections of category-wise consumption by co-integration with related independent variables is given below: LnQ
= a + b.Ln(PCGDP)
+ c.Ln(P) + d. (SS) -e. (INTEN)
whers : Ln Q PCGDP = Natural Logarithm Electricity Demanc1 Per Capita Gross Domestic Product
\ 'hapt<.:r I _ k:ruduuioll
& Methodology
38
,,;il~~~/ Electricity Central

\i
Authority
P INTEN
Electricity Price Electricity Intensity (ratio between value-added produced by economy and electricity consumed by the economy) Stmctural Changes (Total Scrvice Sector Share in GDP)
SS
a, b, c, d, e-n --------
are coefficients
Above equation with co-efficient values as per below was used: LnQ
1.400. Ln(PCGDP) - O.On.Ln(P) + 0.00824.INTEN + O.OI.SS
Forecasting at Aggregate Level Using co-integration Equation cited above, forecast of aggregate electricity demand upto 20212022, was made. PCGDP has been assumed to grow at the rate of 6,7 and 7.5 percent per year. Time series techniques have been used to predict for clectricity intensity on the hasis of last seven years. Electricity Prices have been assumed to grow at the rate of two percent per year at constant prices. In total twelve scenarios for electricity forecasting has hecn made. It has been assumed that the share of service sector would remain constant, i.e., it would be around 55 percent Forecasting at Sectoral Level For the sectoral forecasting, price information and the sectoral decomposition of GDP could be collected only since 1992-93. Thereforc, in sectoral analysis, OLS was used rather than cointegration tecbniques for forecasting. In the sectoral analysis it was as,umed that the sectoral consumption is the function of sectoral GDP and tari ff rate in that sector. Trend analysis was used for forecasting the consumption of electricity for railWay';' public lighting and water sectors. 1.5.2 Forecast Beyond 2011-2012
1.5.2.1 The long term electricity demand projections for the period bcyond 2011-2012 upto the year 2021-2022, following the results obtained using mcthodologies explained under sections 1.5.1.1& 1.5.1.2have been made by applying growth rates of overall electrical energy consumption of the StatesfUTs as per the guiding factors detailed below, adding TDL having declining percentage with lower ceiling as per CEA Guidelines and then using AELF having improving trend. The growth rates for projection have been determined aftcr studying th" growth rates anticipated npto the ycar and keeping in view the enlarging base. The peak t'lectric loads have been cstimated after applying suitable annual electric load fact()j', in thp case of States and Union
39
Chapter
I ]mruduc\ioll & Methodolo?y
Central ElectricityAuthoritY.,~~~
.~.
I.:
Territories and suitable annual diversity factors in the case of Regions. All India peak electric load is the sum of the Regional peak electric loads divided by Annual Diversity Factor-InterRegion (ADF-IR) and of Islands of Andaman & Nicobar and Lakshadweep. This method has been adopted in absence of any indication about the likely development profile in the StatesfUTs. The Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-State (ADF-IS) is estimated to have a declining trend in 12'h & l3tl' Five Year Plan period for the reasons already explained in para 1.5.1.1.6of this Report. The Annual Diversity Factor-Inter-State (ADF-IS)for 2016-17 & 2021-22 for various Regions as adopted for making long term projections are given below:
..
2021-22
Northern Western Southern Eastern North Eastern
1.07 1.0625 1.035 1.035 1.07
1.06 1.055 1.03 1.03 1.06
ADF-IR as estimated for the year 2016-17 & 2021-22 shall be 1.025 & 1.02 respectively. As the long-term forecast is only an indicative forecast which would facilitate identification of resources of power for advance action, it is to be considered that the present methodology would meet the requirements. These long-tenn forecasts will have to be reviewed, from timc to time, when the outlines of the perspective development on a longer time horizon become available. 1.6 1.6.1 (a) ASSUMPTIONS Partial End-Use Methodology The year 2003-04 has been assumed as the base year for forecasting the electricity demand. The figures for the base year 2003-04 correspond to restricted electricity supply conditions. The energy consumption figures for the base year are the actual electrical energy sold by the Utilities or Licensees to the consumers. Therefore, in the case of utilities where restrictionslload shedding lunder-frequency conditions were imposed, the consumption during the base year would have been more than what has been indicated in the report. Similarly, the real requirement of electrical energy during the base year would have been more than what has been indicated in the report. The figures of peak electric load in respect of base year indicated in the report are recorded ones. Wherever restrictions were imposed, the recorded peak electric loads would be lower than what would have been recorded under unrestricted conditions.
('hapter
I: Introduction & Methodology
40
/,1
~,~/
."i
(b)
The forecast of the electricity demand has been made for the utility systems only and, therefore, docs not include a portion of demand of the HT Industries that would be met from captive power plants. Gradual 2006 to surplus assumed improvement in power supply position has been considered for the period 20052011-2012 aiming at power supply to all consumers during the year 2011-2012 i.e. power supply conditions having adequate spinning reserve. It has, therefore, been that the electricity shortages shall be wiped off completely in the year 2011-2012.
(c)
(d)
National GDP is likely to grow at an average rate of 8 tolO % upto the year 2011-2012, continue its growth at an average rate of about 8-10 % during 12'h plan period and is estimated to grow at an average rate of about 8 % during 13th plan. Higher growth rates of electricity consumption have been assumed for poor performing StatesfUTs having low per capita electricity consumption, economic potential and scope of development of various sectors. All rural households shall get electrified electrification programme. up to thc year 2011-2012 under accelerated rural of
(e)
(I) (g) (h)
Number of domestic consumers for the year 2011-2012 estimated households for year 2011-20] 2.
shall be equal
to number
The States f UTs shall provide necessary infrastructural facilities for development of electric load in various sectors and ensure restoration of closed industries and setting up of new industries. The Annual Electric Load Factor is estimated to improve in the period beyond 20]]-2012 due to improved implementation of demand side management, advance techniques of load management & differential tariff for peak & off peak hours. Reduction in Transmission & Distribution losses shall continue in the period beyond 20112012 with an estimated achievement of T&D losses indicated in CEA's Guidelines. The Indian economy presently maintaining an elasticity ratio of about 0.75 between growth rates of electricity & GDP shall have gradually declining elasticity ratio.
(i)
(j) (k)
1.6.2 Methodology of Compematioll for Shortage in the Base Year (2004-2005)

(a) (b) The base electricity demand in the year 2004-05 has been reckoned.
The shortages have been worked out after accounting for the restrictions, cuts and under frequency compensation as reported by the StatcsfUTs to CEA in their daily reports. The projections of the growth of electrical energy consumption and peak electric load (StatefUT-wise) have been arrived at by applying compounded growth rates after adding the actual shortages to the dem2nd met.
(c)
41
Chapter
I : Introduction & Methodology
CHAPTER-II
SUMMARY AND REVIEW
~:;~11i/
CHAPTER II
SUMMARY AND REVIEW

2.1 ELECTRICITY FORECAST DIGEST
The electricity demand forecast is an important input for planning of the power sector to meet the future power requirement of various sectors of electricity consumption. A planned load growth in industry, agriculture, domestic and other sectors is necessary to have unified growth in all sectors of economy and therefore it is necessary that infrastructure is planned in various sectors of electricity consumption so as to direct the overall growth of economy in rational manner. The 17'h EPS has considered appropriate growth rate in all sectors of the Indian economy to remove the constraints in the electricity supply and achieve accelerated GDP growth over the growth qchieved during the last 5-8 years. The electricity forecast exercise, the planning of the generation capacity and development of the infrastructure in various sectors of electricity consumption are complementary to one another. The capacity addition for generation and development of corresponding EHV infrastructure is planned by Central Electricity Authority on long term basis. The present plans for generation and transmission are aiming to meet the electricity requirement in full by 20112012, make power available on demand and also provide for spinning reserve to improve the quality and reliability of electricity supply. The electricity consumption by the end consumer is the guiding factor for evaluating thc electricity demand for the future. The energy consumption pattern are changing with the invent of technology and energy conservation mcasures initiated by Government and the industrial sector. Efforts have been made to collect the data on electricity saving on account of energy conservation measures initiated by HT industries and the results have shown above 1.5% saving in energy consumption during the year 2004-05. It has not becn possible to capture the electricity saving in all sections of energy consumption. However, the higher weightage provided to the latest trends in the energy conservation follows the latest trend in technology and energy conservation efforts by various stake holders. The electricity demand projections are based on various assumptions as enumerated in Chapter-I. However, to achieve the maximum benefit of the forecast it would be necessary to dcvelop infrastructure for transmission and distribution for uninterrupted flow of power to the consumcr in all sectors of consumption like industry, agriculture, domestic, etc. particularly rural sector, commercial, etc.
45
Chapter
II : Summary
and R<.:vi<.:w
CentralElectricityAuthority!~!,""
V It has be,'1l noticed in the past that there had been a gap between the electricity forecast alld the aetllal achievements on all Indi~ basis. For some of the States the gap between the demand projectiolls and the actual loa.d requiremellt had been very large due to scanty growth of the load demand. There are 8 States for which the load growth had been scanty (less than 4%) while 17 States achieved moderate load growth of 4-1% against] 6'h BPS growth rate of 6.33% and a few :lchieved high growth rates. The States with lower electricity demand growth rate arc comparatively less developed States and if these States have to catch up with others, then tbey arc required to accelerate their electricity cOllsumption in industry, commerce and agriculture so as to generate sustainable economic developmellt. The electricity demand forecast has been prepared based on the "forcsaid phi losophy so as to provide equitable growth ill the COUllry . t
2.2
ENERGY DEMAND AND THE PEAK LOAD DEMAND
lolectrical Ellergy Requirement and the Peak Load Demand are important elements of the electrical supply projections. The electrical energy demand represents the productive clement which goes into the cnpital building of the nRlion while peak demand is the operational parameter of th~ utilization of electrical energy. The ideal energy requirement would point t\,wards constant load throughout the period under consideration and for the purpose of EPS the same is on yearly hasis. However the energy requirement of various consumers is different for different season, iiF11~, place C1.1ld process and energy Jnd peak deumnd changes accordingly. The r:llic) of peak dcnund and tbt~ I)rr-p('a1< demand in the ;\lllndi3 5YStcll1 varies upto iSOC;;; over sholt period and '.Ipio)OO% (monthly bilsis) over long term (yearly basis) on allnual basis. The reduction 01' gap IJelw,,,,n IW,'k lo"d "Tld off-peak load wonld mean higher utilization of the installed generating cnpaeity. The peak demand could be milnaged with prudent Demand Side 1\-1anagement and co-ordination between various illdustriClI, agriculture, cOlnmercial and bulk consumers. Though various State lItilities arc making effort to shave off the peak through various initiatives like Timc or the Day ('100) metering and imposing load restrictions in various load centrcs by rotation, it I~as been, however, noted in many States that the peak load growth has beell much higher than the corresponding increase in the energy requirement. While there is regular pattern in the growth of electrical energy, the peak load has noticed quantum jumps at il regular intervals over the years. The sudden jump in the peak demand growth are noticeable in States with high industrialization, agriculture or commercial activities like Maharashtm, Punjab, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh etc. A stndy of the regional Load Duration Curve (LDC) reveals thm the high peak persists for short period of less than half an hour on an average which contributes to 5% peak demand, whereas th" },,,I peak persists for over 4 hours a day. The high peak cai; be managed through various DSM and energy conservation measures, thus the 2"<] peek which is of the order of 95% of the high peak is the rea] system peak. Tbe freak variations of 56% in peak demand can appenr for short duration on State basis. Thus, the quantum iucrease in the peak Iknland without corresponding increase in the energy requirement woult! he harlll()J\iI,(~d nv(':" JOllV perIod alld arc. therefore, treated as freak illcrc,lse in the load
Chapter II . Summary and Hcvicw
46
,~!1~;~
demand without having significant impact on systcm operation. Such freak variations of peal< demand could be met by farger thermal generating units of 200/500 MW capacity by resorting to VWO operating 1 HP heater by passing etc. It would be rather uneconomical to put additional generating capacity as such to meet such short time peak demands. The summary of the energy requirement and expected peak demand by the end of year 2011-11 are given below:
Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only) 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Statel UT ~----_.-
(in GWIl) ,
2010-11}2011-12
.- --.--"
North ern Region Weste rn Region South ern Region
181203 204819 150457 59015 7145
195359 223054 163710 64498 7812
209137 233486
""---
223928
239807
256859
215171
~--
Easte -~_. __ . rn Region North -Eastern Re io n ~-------ISLAN OS

-.-.---
176037
~-
244481
-.----,=8534
----~-_._~
70547
------
256U75 268307 281220 ------- -- ------.189312 1---203606 219001 235582 77221 9326
... ~---~--
294841 294860 253443
-------1
------
84601 10193
-.--------11141
92767
----- ---101805 111802

12184 13329
-~----- f----~-------.~-
--
.------.-
f--~-- ----
..-- f-----
Andar nan & Nicobar ------ - --- ---Lal,sh acJweep

----.,,-------
---
126
-
_._-~------------f
24 654603 26
146
193
219
f---------
248
Ailino iia
----_-- ._';'",,'~'~
22
n_
.-
.,"~-.~~ ...
-~_._"-~---.-._~""~._.-
602787
~-_.~_
31 34 --------,-. ----~697961 -744515 794561 --848:390 ....... -~. ....,~._._-"~--_._~,.--~ .._.~~_w_ '--_
28
-- ---
.---~-----_._281
~::- -1-6~~3
_._~ __ n
~4~41
,
-----
37
906316
~O ! ---------. ~ 9G86~q:
17th EPS FORECAST Peak Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only)
(in MW)I
2010-11 --2011-121 --44496 44427
__ un. _.
Siate/UT----
~.--------.
Northern f1egion Western Region Southern f1egion Eastern Region Norttl-Eastern ISLANDS
2004-05 27759 31256 23516 9317 1272
2005-06 30030 33142 25673 10322 1404
2006-07
2007-08 37264
2008-09- -2009-10380214-113139513 32192 14037 1888

.. --
32487 --- 35145---
35143
-=------------29854
..
----~-'_c_f__---.--------
~;;8i"37I
47108
_
41898 34715 15552 2083

-------~-
27441
37434 17230 2299
~---------
-~
._---~
1549
-----
11436
12670 1710
----19088 ---.--2537
40367
~j{)-,,--~-----
-~----
-- .. --------
-------All India
Andarnan
& Nicobar
28
7 90221
33
Lakshadwe_ep
43 ----49 ----56 -'71--'--8 .. ~-- 8 9

-.
6371
---un
141678 152746
--
1-0------11 ---{\
131413
97269
104867
113059
121891
State wise details are given in the Tables 2. I & 2.2.
-------------------------------------~
.
.-..:
47
Chapter
Il : Summary and Review
Central Electricity Authority ~~--
ll"
Table 2.1 All India and State/UT wise Forecast Electrical Energy Requirement at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only) (in TWh)
State/UT Delhi Harvana Himachai Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Puniab Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Ultaranchal Chandigarh Sub Total (NR) Goa Guiarat Chhattisqarh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra D. & N. Hayeli Daman & Diu Sub Total (WR) Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondicherry Sub Total (SR) Bihar Jharkhand
Orissa
2004-05 21.157 21.801 4.516 8.138 35.861 30.392 53.033 5.010 1.295 181.203 2.323 60.124 11.750 34.114 93.217 2.105 1.186 204.819 48.928 35.157 12.698 51.449 2.225 150.457 7.201 11.057 13.980 26.573 0.204 59.015 3.810 0.537 1.374 0.330 0.700 0.158 0.236 7.145 0.126 0.022 602.787
2005-06 22.853 23.890 5.022 9.450 38.642 32.530 56.167 5.398 1.407 195.359 2.560 63.220 13.230 36.920 103 .200 2.542 1.382 223.054 54.683 37.334 13.760 55.479 2.454 163.710 8.327 12.308 15.371 28.274 0.218 64.498 4.182 0.581 1.460 0.367 0.759 0.210 0.254 7.812 0.146 0.024 654.603
2006-07 24.684 25.858 5.585 9.722 41.639 34.819 59.486 5.816 1.528 209.137 2.821 66.475 14.377 38.748 106.643 2.849 1.573 233.486 59.311 39.646 14.549 59.824 2.707 176.037 9.629 13.700 16.900 30.084 0.234 70.547 4.618 0.629 1.551 0.408 0.822 0.232 0.274 8.534
2007-08 26.662 27.989 6.212 10.001 44.868 37.268 63.002 6.267 1.659 223.928 3.108 69.898 15.623 40.666 110.201 3.194 1.790 244.481 64.331 42.101 15.384 64.510 2.986 189.312 11.134 15.249 18.582 32.009 0.247 77.221 5.100 0.681 1.648 0.454 0.891 0.257 0.295 9.326
2008-09 28.799 30.295 6.909 10.289 48.347 39.890 66.725 6.752 1.802 239.807 3.425 73.497 16.977 42.680 113.878 3.580 2.038 256.075 69.775 44.709 16.266 69.563 3.293 203.606 12.874 16.974 20.431 34.058 0.264 84.601 5.632 0.737 1.751 0.505 0.966 0.284 0.318 10.193 0.248 0.031 794.561
2009-10 31.107 32.791 7.684 10.585 52.096 42.697 70.668 7.275 1.957 256.859 3.774 77.282 18.448 44.793 117.678 4.013 2.319 268.307 75.680 47.477 17.200 75.011 3.633 219.001 14.886 18.894 22.464 36.238 0.285 92.767 6.219 0.797 1.860 0.562 1.046 0.314 0.343 11.141 0.281 0.034 848.390
2010-11 33.600 35.493 8.545 10.889 56.136 45.701 74.845 7.838 2.125 275.171 4.159 81.261 20.047 47.011 121.604 4.498 2.640 281.220 82.085 50.417 18.186 80.886 4.007 235.582 17.213 21.031 24.699 38.557 0.305 101.805 6.868 0.862 1.976 0.626 1.134 0.348 0.370 12.184 0.316 0.037 906.316
2011-12 36.293 38.417 9.504 11.202 60.489 48.916 79.268 8.445 2.308 294.841 4.583 85.445 21.785 49.338 125.661 5.042 3.005 294.860 89.032 53.540 19.230 87.222 4.419 253.443 19.905 23.408 27.149 41.020 0.320 111.802 7.585 0.932 2.101 0.698 1.229 0.386 0.398 13.329 0.344 0.040 968.659
West Bengal Sikkim Sub Total (ER) Assam Manipur Meghalaya Naqaland Tripura Aru"achal Pradesh
Mizoram
Sub Total (NERl ISLANDS Andman & Nicobar Lakshadweep "ioial (All India)
0.193 0.219 0.026 0.028 697.961 744.515
Chapter II : Summary and Review
48
$r.llll ';("-::J:W~) Central
Table 2.2 All India and State/UT wise Forecast Peak Load at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities only) (in GW)
State/UT Delhi Harvana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Punjab Raiasthan Uttar Pradesh Uttaranchal Chandigarh Sub Total (NR) Goa Guiarat Chhattisaarh Madhva Pradesh Maharashtra D. & N. Haveli Daman & Diu Sub Total (WR) Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondicherry Sub Total (SR) Bihar Jharkhand
Orissa
2004-05 3.626 4.037 0.772 1.316 7.605 4.967 8.057 0.914 0.248 27.759 0.385 10.226 1.893 5.944 14.986 0.391 0.223 31.256 8.168 5.928 2.452 8.215 0.347 23.516 1.154 1.991 2.237 4.723 0.058 9.317 0.663 0.103 0.264 0.074 0.188 0.063 0.071 1.272 0.028 0.007 90.221
2005-06 3.905 4.353 0.858 1.600 8.016 5.650 8.714 1.000 0.267 30.030 0.422 10.736 2.150 6.650 16.200 0.431 0.254 33.142 8.810 6.275 2.650 9.420 0.383 25673 1.339 2.222 2.454 5.035 0.061 10.322 0.741 0.125 0.283 0.082 0.200 0.D75 0.076 1.404 0.033 0.007 97.269
2006-07 4.205 4.693 0.953 1.669 8.451 6.046 9.425 1.074 0.288 32.487 0.461 11.271 2.339 6.923 17.042 0.476 0.289 35.143 9.597 6.642 2.779 10.090 0.421 27.441 1.570 2.480 2.717 5.367 0.064 11.436 0.828 0.144 0.303 0.091 0.213 0.081 0.081 1.549 0.043 0.008 104.867
2007-08. 4.529 5.060 1.059 1.741 8.908 6.469 10.193 1.153 0.311 35.145 0.504 11.833 2.545 7.206 17.927 0.525 0.329 37.264 10.454 7.031 2.915 10.807 0.464 29.854 1.842 2.768 3.009 5.721 0.067 12.670 0.925 0.154 0.325 0.101 0.226 0.087 0.087 1.710 0.049 0.008 113.059
2008-09..2009:10. 4.877 5.456 1.176 1.817 9.390 6.923 11.024 1.238 0.335 38.021 0.551 12.422 2.769 7.501 18.859 0.579 0.374 39.513 11.388 7.442 3.058 11.575 0.511 32.192 2.177 3.089 3.327 6.099 0.071 14.037 1.034 0.165 0.348 0.112 0.240 0.094 0.093 1.888 0.056 0.009 121.891 5.253 5.883 1.306 1.895 9.899 7.408 11.923 1.330 0.361 41.131 0.603 13.042 3.012 7.809 19.839 0.639 0.426 41.898 12.406 7.877 3.207 12.398 0.563 34.715 2.575 3.448 3.674 6.502 0.D76 15.552 1.155 0.177 0.373 0.124 0.255 0.101 0.100 2.083 0.063 0.010 131.413
2010-11! 5.657 6.343 1.451 1.977 10.435 7.927 12.896 1.428 0.389 44.496 0.660 13.692 3.277 8.129 20.870 0.705 0.485 44.427 13.514 8.338 3.364 13.280 0.620 37.434 3.046 3.848 4.051 6.931 0.080 17.230 1.291 0.189 0.400 0.137 0.271 0.109 0.107 2.299 0.071 0.011 141.678
.20JH2 6.092 6.839 1.611 2.063 11.000 8.482 13.947 1.533 0.420 48.137 0.721 14.374 3.565 8.462 21.954 0.778 0.552 47108 14.721 8.826 3.528 14.224 0.683 40.367 3.607 4.296 4.459 7.407 0.083 19.088 1.443 0.203 0.428 0.152 0.282 0.116 0.115 2.537 0.077 0.011 152.746
West Bengal Sikkim Sub Total (ER) Assam Manipur Meahalava Naqaland Tripura Arunachal Pradesh
Mizoram
Sub Total (NERI ISLANDS Andman & Nicobar Lakshadweep Total (All India)
49
Chapter
1! Summary and Revic\v
2.3
VISION BEYOND 2011-2012
The tenth Five Year Plan has witnessed annual GDP growth rate of 8-9%. India has good economic fundamentals and also could benefit from vibrant Asian economy. India is not only a large market in itself but also has large technical and skilled human resource pool to attract investment for setting-up manufacturing facilities for lots of industries including pharmaceuticals and electrical industry. Neighboring Asian countries particularly China, Taiwan and South Korea have sustained GDP growth rates hovering over 10% and the Indian economy has recently shown developmental signs that can possibly sustain double digit growth rate. Electrical energy is the prime-mover of all modem economies. To achieve high GDP growth India has already opened up and liberalized its economy across aU the sectors and opened its doors for Foreign Direct Investment. The new policy has encouraged 100% foreign direct investment in generation, transmission, distribution and trading of electricity. Necessary precautions have been taken to assess the demand of electricity to enable the achievement of high GDP growth rate. The elasticity ratio between electricity growth and growth of GDP is anticipated to foUow declining trend as has been visualized in the Report of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy (August, 2006). (Chapter II, Section 2.1, para-6) The electricity demand forecast is a complex exercise and is a direct function of the industrialization, population, productivity, per capita GDP, geographical & climatic conditions, seasonal variations and of the present status of electrification, etc. and accordingly, varies from country to country. Another parameter that plays a crucial role in assessing with demand of electricity is the energy intensity of various economic activities. Whereas the developed countries have negative population growth and high per capita GDP, the developing countries have higher population growth and very low per capita GDP growth. Similarly the demographic and geographical features also have considerable impact on the total energy demand. The growth rate of energy demand in India, particularly the electricity demand, therefore, does not follow the growth signature of other countries particularly when alternate energy sources are non-competitive. The growth rate in electricity demand further gets influenced with high level ofT&D losses in India. The growth of electricity consumption and generation in India during the past 30 years is shown in the table below:
'GRO\VTH OF ELECTRICITYCONSUMPTi:ON
Time Period Electricity
Consumption
IN INDIA
Elasticity Ratio Electricity IGDP
CAGR (%)
Gross GDP(93-94
Generation*
(3)
prices)"''''
(4) (5)=(2)/(4) (6)=(3)/(4)
(1)
30 Yrs.: 2004-05 to 1974-75 25 Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1979-80 20 Yrs. : 2004-05 tu 1984-85 15Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1989-90 IOYrs. : 2004-05 to 1994-95 5 Yrs. : 2004-05 to 1999-00
(2)
6.87 6.60 6.29 5.40 4.05 4.30
7.47 7.36 7.09 6.20 5.58 4.37
5.40 5.79 5.83 5.80 6.20 5.90
1.27 1.14 1.08 0.93 0.65 0.73
1.38 1.27 1.22 1.07 0.90 0.74
{
Charter II Slll11l1laryand
*Dala Source - General Review. **Data Source - Website I Publications of CSO.
Rl~\,jCv..
50
_~~~:
The table above shows that the rate of growth of electricity demand is gradually decreasing over the years, however the GOP growth rates are improving thus projecting a declining elasticity ratio. The same is also corroborated by IEP reporl. The energy consumption growth rates of other countries are similar to generation growth as the T&D losses in these countries have been quite stable. The Indian Electricity Sector is suffering from high T&0 losses on account of poor infrastructure and unaccounted losses there by strangulating the actual energy available for end use consumption. The electricity consumption is the driver for the GOP growth and, therefore, for the purpose of working out electricity growth rates electricity consumption data has been considered from the past. For future projection the energy requirement has been worked out based on the various T&O loss reduction targets assessed in consultation with the StatefUTs. A general review of growth of consumption and GDP of developed and developing economies is given in the table below:
GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION OF soMEo . , CountrylEconomies 30 Years CAGR of Electricity i Consumptinn ( % ) (1971-2001)
--
-R ECONOMlliS 30 years CAGR of GDP

( %) (1971-2001) 8.19 7.36 3.95 2.51 1.61 3.36 2.97
China Korea Brazil Africa Middle East OECD Pacific OECD Countries (Data Source: lEA Publications/website)
8.17 12.1 4.58 5.38 9.96 4.25 3.15
A list of countries besides above achieved higher rate of 810% growth and developed countries that have a growth of less than 4% in electricity consumption during past 30 years period from 1971 to 2001 is given in the table below:
- _GROW~THOF ELECTRlCITY>CONSUMPTION IN SOME 9T~ COUNTRlliS : Country"NAme _ 30 Years CAGR of Electricity ;- __ Consumption ( % ) jI9n-2001) 8.00 Egypt
Indonesia M::laysia Thailand S.Arabia Iran 12.58 10.39 10.67 14.95 9.08 19.18 8.22 4.51 2.87 3.03 1.41
U.A.E.
Hongkong Argentina
OECO Europe
Nurth America
Former USSR
\Dnta Source: lEA PublicationsJ\\lebsite)
51
"'''~'E
!~'i
The time trend in various countries is exhibiting reduction in the energy consumption growth rates over the years. China experienced a growth of about 8.2% in electricity consumption and 8.18% average growth in GDP over the last three decades during 1971-2000. Similarly, Korea has experienced electricity growth of 12.1% over thc last 30 years vis-a-vis GDP growth of 7.36%. Developed countries in OECD had electricity growth rate of 3.08% during 1971-2001. The electricity consumption & generation in India grew by 6.87% & 7.47% respectively for last thirty years 1974-2005 and the corresponding GDP growth had been 5.4%. It is expected that after sustaining high GDP growth for over 15 years, the GDP growth would stabilize with induction of new technologies and high value addition industries. The elasticity ratio of electricity growth and GDP growth is expected to further improve from 0.95 to 0.78 beyond 13th Plan period as per the Rcport of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy (IEP) of the Planning Commission. (Chapter II, Section 2.1, para 6) Taking clue from the foregoing, the electrical energy consumption has been assumed to increase at a CAGR of 10% upto 20]2 as worked out and 9% upto 2022. This growth in electricity consumption is expected to support an average GDP growth of 9-11 % over the period of forecast. The GDP growth expectations are based on the electricity growth and elasticity projections in IEP Report (2006) by Planning Commission. The long term demand of electrical energy requirement at the power station bus bars for the year 2016-2017 and 2021-2022 are projected to be 1392 TWh and 1914 TWh (Tera Watt Hours) respectively. To meet above cnergy dcmand, the corresponding gencrating installed capacity would be about 300 GW and 410 GW (Giga Watts) respectively. The Plan wise projections upto 2021-2022 are given in Table 2.3.
-
Title Total EEC-U(Alllndia):GWh EER at Bus Bars-CiWh

_: ______ n ______
755847
f---
1133749 1392066 218209
1593266 191450X
----
968659 152746 0.95 10.07 10.60
APEL in MW Integrated Energy Policy Report : Elasticity Ratio CAGR W.Lt. 2004-05 EEC Feasihle GUP Growth (CAGR cIeey. consumption / elasticity ratio)
298253 0.X5
9.39
8.69 10.23
State-wise details are available in Table 2.3.
Chapter II: Summary and Review
52
~~""W-~VJf/ Central
Table 2.3 Long Term Forecast at Power Station Bus Bars (Utilities)
State Electrical.Energy Requirement (GWh) Peak Eleotrlo Load (MW)
2011 -2012 2016 - 2017

Delhi Haryana Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Punjab Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Uttarnanchal Chandigarh Sub Total (NR) Goa Guarat Chhattisaarh Madhva Pradesh Maharashtra D. & N. Haveli Daman & Diu Sub Total (WRI Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Kerala Tamil Nadu Pondicherry Sub Total SR
2021-2022 73481 73838 17657 21283 107342 92377 150157 16191 4440 556768 9082 156842 45116 98987 219910 12243 7842 550022 175590 107471 36134 182825 9639 511659 58248 51741 63098 84499 629 258216 24433 2337 4015 1505 3180 762 764 36997 779 68 1914508
2011 -2012 20162017 6092 6839 1611 2063 11000 8482 13947 1533 420 48137 721 14374 3565 8462 21954 778 552 47108 14721 8826 3528 14224 683 40367 3607 4296 4459 7407 83 19088 1443 203 428 152 282 116 115 2537 77 11 152746 8729 9375 2194 2790 14441 11404 19623 2085 602 66583 1083 19670 5375 11772 28348 1266 857 64349 21845 13092 4574 21976 1061 60433 5598 6604 6330 10743 120 28401 2292 270 542 222 387 148 162 3760 119 17 218209
20212022 12069 12557 2907 3857 18352 15101 26834 2849 782 89913 1429 25447 7279 16129 35944 1889 1324 84778 28216 17464 5916 29815 1489 80485 9567 9129 10074 15072 150 42712 3985 445 751 319 666 189 196 6180 132 19 298253
36293 38417 9504 11202 60489 48916 79268 8445 2308 294841 4583 85445 21785 49338 125661 5042 3005 294860 89032 53540 19230 87222 4419 253443 19905 23408 27149 41020 320 111802 7585 932 2101 698 1229 386 398 13329 344 40 968659
52762 54305 13136 15272 82572 67767 110665 11668 3367 411513 6880 119083 33076 70445 167227 8204 4890 409805 132118 79996 26332 134755 6868 380068 32857 36274 39096 60228 487 168942 13053 1360 2778 1040 1761 557 595 21143 537 58 1392066
Bihar Jharkhand Orissa West Benoal Sikkim Sub Total IERI Assam Manipur Mechalava Naqaland Tripura Arunachal Pradesh Mizoram Sub Total (NERI Andman & Nicobar Lakshadweep Total (All India)
53
Chapter
I J SUIllnl<lry and R<.:vit.:\\
1,100,000
1,0'00,000
---
Chart 2.1(A) All India: Energy Requirement (GWH)
~_:: 1------~~--- -----~~---: ---~-~- ---~~..--~~-----"-.

!""""
areOO,OOO
.. ---~~
~~ ----.----
~ 500,000 t
= r..l
~'-~~----
400,000
300,000
200 000
-+-ACluaIAvi. __ Estimated
1998-99
1999-00 450,744
420,315
I I
2000-01467,568
2O?1-02 ~483,520
I
200~-=-0412004-05
497,769 524.2991559.684 602787
2005 - 06
2006 - 07
2007-08 744515
2006 - 09
2009-10
2010 -11
2011-12
L.
---'
654603
697961
794561
. 848390 !16 ~
968659
Actual Av!.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.1(B) Alllndia: Peak Demand (MW)
.-.
160000 . 150000 140000

,...j
30000
~ 20000
~
= ~
10000
Q
V> V>
" "
90000 80000 70000 60000
1998 - 11999 - I 2000 - . 2001 - 2002 - , 2003 I 99 . 00 . 0~~!_0~_04 2004 - , 2005 - . 2006 - 2007 - 2008 - I 2009 - 2010 - . 2011 05 I 06 ! 07 ! 08 I 09 ! 10--1...2.i I 12..j
I
~ 00000
!l.
!-- Actual met 63691 I 67880 I 71262 I 71547 I 75066 I 75842 " 80189 I I I ! Estimated ~I ~__ I _'~ __ L ._' .. 90221 I 97269 QCl486711l3~
!
_----r
!'
,
12l.891I 131413.h41679 :152,7461
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
=
Chart 2.2(A) Northern Region: Energy Requirement (GWH)
330,000
280,000
S? ~ 8
I
j
," &
~
~
d.l d.l
E tt) S d.l
230,000
--~-j
,.,
180,000
~_~~ __
~__
~ __
........fl:-_,
'
..
._1
II,
I I I
I
'"
130,000
80,000
1998~99 [Actual Avl. Estimated 122,492
1999~00 2000~01 2001-02 131,OlJ 134,824 141,948
2oo2~03 2003-04 146,500 154,533
2004-05 165,350 181203
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2oo8~09 2009' 10 2010-11
2011-12
195359
209137
223928
239807
256859
275171
294,841
Actual AvI.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.2(B) Northern Region: Peak Demand (MW) 55,000
50,000
45,000
:::
""= eo
V>
~ 40,000
35,000
6
-.l
30,000
.:.: eo
&:
25,000
20,000
15,000 '
10000
,, i
1998-99
1999- 00' 2000, Oil 2001 - 02 2002 - 03 eo<.2003' 2004,05 04! 18,882. 1_19.860 . 21,346
2005 - 0T006
- 07 2007,08.2008
IAClU,1 et m
I 17.876 ~";m",ed_I -'
L_.l __,.J.__
J.21.889J 2243U 25,050 I

--'-__
.l..E.759
I
30030...1 32487
35145
_I
- 09 2009 - 10! 2010 :.1.1-+2~2J
~--I---L-..2802~113!--',""""~8.132J
Co
Actual met
Shortaae
Estimated
<
320000
--Chart 2.3(A) Western Region: Energy Kequirement (GWH)
I
220000 ~170000 120000
70000 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 132217 223054 233486 244481 256075 268307
ActualAvl. 106807
Estimated
116518
121617
"
it'
s 0
0
~ ~ ~
Actual Avl.
Shortage
~ h ~
'3' 0
'~'
" "
9/
Chart 2.3(B) Western Region: Peak Demand (MW) 50,000 45,000 ~------'--~------'
40,000
1--- -- ---,--,---,---
-----'-,-,------_
------
~
'0
6
v.
'-0
I"
Cl
" s
"
30,000----------------,--,-
35,000
I1.,
""
"'" 25,000 ---20,000 ---
"
---,,-----
----------~---~-~
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
280000
-----------------------------.----------.--... ---.------------------------------------------1
----------------~---------------------____J
Chart 2.4 (A) Southern Region: Energy Requirement
(GWH)
260000 -------240000 220000
---Ii
-----~---i
I I
!
j i
~".
0', 0
200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 1998-99 . 1999-oo! 2000-01 2001-02. 2002-03 2003-04
-I
!
i --------i
-----j
~
f<1
i
i
--------(
---I
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 108005 120594 127156 131144 134544 137740 163710 176037 189312 203606 219001 235582 253443!
Actual Avl.
Estimated
_ Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
45,000 40,000
Chart 2.4(B) Southern Region: Peak Demand (MW)
~5,000
::s ~ "0 = 30,000 e

Q
.:.:
"
!l. 25,000
" "
20,000
,<
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
=
Chart 2.5(A) Eastern Region: Energy Requirement (GWH)
?:
e-
90000
e ,
a:
w
E
0-
80000
--------~
>'" ~ c
70000
50000
______
..
---.l
4000(1 _______
l:~ AVI.[ 43900 Actual

~~stim~_
199899 1999-00_1' 2000-01_ 2001-0~~02-03. , 456~9 ,~~8
~003-04120~~-05~~05-06 54977
, 20.11-12
50597 _j.~094!
59015 ' 70547

I
L-_~
L~O~, 64498 I YEAR

Shortage
n221
84601
101805
111802
Actual Avl.
Estimated
at
S
()
"
~ 0
;;r
Chart 2.5(8) Eastern Region: Peak Demand
0 0
iiO
Q
rn
~
p
18500
---~-~-~---~~----~---
c S' a ,
"
16500
~
c " 0\
14500
2:
'"
0.
"
12500
-------------------
---------
--- -
-"----
---
---
-------
10500
/ --- .7---~~-------~----~
8500
------------------
------.----
------
-------------~-------------
-------
--------
6500 r.......-Actualmet ', EstImated
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.6(A) North Eastern Region: Energy Requirement 14500 r-------------------------13500 --------12500 11500 10500 9500 -----
(GWH)
- -------.------
"_
..
_---"_.,~"-_._..._. __ ._.--~_.."._ ........ _-, .. _ .. ."-_.~_._..-_ .... __ ...._,._--,--- ...-_,~_--" ..-....-._-----] ...
,
i
----------------------u -------------------------------------
-----1
---- - --j
i
- ---- - - ----- - - - - --- - -- ------------------------
-------"!
i
i
---------- - -- ---
-----------------i
-----~- ----------------J
- - ---------------------------j
i
!
1998.991999-002000-01 2001-022002'032003-04 5104 5432 5855 6195 6288
2004'05 2005-'08 2008-07 2007-08 6674
2010-_11. 2011-12
Actual A vI.
Shortage
Estimated
()
~
-->>,,-':,;i'i;"'~.
_'1",.,,_'
j(;,::3~;1t.~i,j:'i-'.: , ----' ._----'-"---,_
..~,.,-_...
_-_
Chart 2.6(8) .. North Eastern Region: Peak. Demand

.... _._._.- ...
'<,
.
" i&
-I
i ~
_.,-._~-~-_.---"_."-
_.~-------_.__ __ ._,-~~-
rn
B: " '"c " SO
'"
'"
---1
I,
i ,
-----------------1
1200 1000 800
r~'--
-------
--
- --------------1
i
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 200+05 2005-06 2006-'07 2007-08 2008'09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 862 932 1043 1055 1119 1219 1~28 1272 1404
""'*""' Estimated,
. YEAR:
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chandigarh:
2,500 2,300 2,100 .-.-.-. --.
Chart 2.7(A) Energy Requirement
(GWH)
1,900 --.---.,----.------------.--
..----.--
S
~ r.J
1,700
e 1,500 ~
1,300 1,100 900 700------500 --.--.--.-.-.---.--.-----' -.-.-------
'1998-99 Actual AvI. Estimated 922
1999-00 2000-0 I 2001-021 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 960 967 997
i
..l..
1.059
1.087
1.286 1295
Shortage
1407
1528
1659
1802
1957
2125
2.308
Actual AvL
Estimated
Chart 2.7(B) Chandigarh: Peak Demand (MW)

450
400
350
--.--------.--~--.--.-------
.--.-------
. _J _
I
300 -------.----------~ .. -----. --~.. ---.-i J i
I
250
..
.-_~w
._._
-----, I
II
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.8(A) Delhi: Energy Requirement (GWH)

40,000 --------~ -----------------------
35,000
------------
---'
---
-------------------
---
,..;30,000
~ ~
I"i
r.l25,000
--J
I I
II
20,000
--------l
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009"10 2010-11 2011-12 16,184 17,141 17,667 18,741 19,567 20,160
20,952
15,000 Actual Avl. Estimated
21157
22853
24684
26662
28799
31107
.33600
36,293
Actual Avl.
Shortalle
Estimated
6,500'm",--,-,---,-",.--,, "_,, __ .m,,,, .,, 6,000 5,500 ~ 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500
Chart 2.8(B) Delhi: Peak Demand(MW)

__ ",m ,
'w_, , , , , _
2,000
1
-,--~-r----,,[Estimated_i __ L_
1998, 99
1999, 2000, I 2001, 12002, 2003--' 2004-1200S -12006 --I 2007-12008J- 2009--12010-1201100 ' 01 ,02 03 1 04 OS 1 06 1 07 ' 08 I 09 10 I II I 12 1
I
I'
--+----1-
'--1- - ~----,-----
IActual met 1~484-+-2,498+__2,67.<J..Ll,87~ 3,101-L32.8<J.I~SSst_-
--L':
1
,'----,
---~--,
' __
"j
..J __
~' __
J.
36~
Shortage
390S G20S
! 4S29l4872...U2s3j.2IJS7l6,On
Actual met
Estimated
Chart 2.9(A) Haryana: Energy Reqnirement

45,000 ------------------------
(GWH)
I
40,000 --------------
-------------
---------------~
35,000
30,000
e. 25.000
~
r-l
20,000
15,000
10,000
------------
----
5,000 1998-99 -Actual A vI. 13,808 199900 15,578 200001 16.793 200102 17.839 200203 19.688 200304 19,779 200405 20.562 21801 23890 25858 27989 30295 32791 35493 38,417 2005-
06
200607
200708
2008-
09
200910
2010-
11
201112
Est:mated
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.9(B)
Haryana: Peak Demand (MW)

8,000
7,000
8,000
6
5,000
4,000

3,000
2007 - 2008 -12009 - 2010 - i 2011 - , ~~. 10j 11 i 121
1--+-l-t-;;--1-~ i 5060 ~56 I 5883 . 6343 I 6,832J
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.10(A) Himachal Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

10,000 9,000 ~--~'.---- ..." ..
--'-.-----.----------,
----!
! !
I 1
.1
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 6909 7684

8545 9,504
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.10(B)
Himachal Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
Annal met
Shortag:e
Estimated
=
Chart 2.l1(A) Jammu & Kashmir: Energy Requirement(GWH) 11,800
10,800
I,
I
I
I
I
9,800------
-.--
l
J
I
=: s:
~
8,800
=i r.1
7,800
I,
6,800 5,800
I
4,800
199899
Actual A vI. Estimated
199900 4,979
200001 5,375
200102 5,606
200203 6,317
200304 6,780
200405 7,387 8138
2005-
06
9450
200607 9722
2007-
2008-
08
10001
09
10289
200910 10585
201011
201112
5,429
10889 11,202
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Jammu
2,300 2,100 1,900
Chart 2.11(B) & Kashmir: Peak Demand (MW)
I
~
I
6 "" 0: Ei
.....,
V>
::::
!
1,700 1,500 ~ 1,300 1,100
"
I
I
"
~ "
'"
300 ~--'-~-------'--'----' 700'--~--"---'~ 500
--+
'.
2000,,2001,' 01 I 02
'-----,~-'
,
i,
~
j
-+- Actual met I 941 1,004 974: t----- .... ------+-- ..---- ---~------ti----Estimated '_
---
'-, ,':--t,
, 1998, I 99
1999, 00,
n._
;_m'~_
2002, i 2003 2004, 2005, 03 , 04 ' 05 , 06 1,060,

--
'
i
1
"-~-+--'Ii
-.
2006, , 2007, , 2008 i 2009, 12010, . 2011 'I 07 I 08 I 09 ' 10 ' 11 12 "
1
'-,-~-C-'~~
I' ~---..... -
999
--,
1,218 '. 1,166

-:-----
-'-n
'
__ .'...
--T------
~6_1 1600i~9
Shortage
1---'
~-'~---'--'I
! ;
. ---
~-.-+_-----:-~1977 ,,].,0<i3.1
~7~U
1~
l,J8~~
"
Actual met
Estimated
Chart 2.12(A) Punjab: Energy Requirement (GWH)

67,000
62,000 67,000 -~-~~ --------~-~-I
52,000
----j
i
J
t
s=-
a:
r.i
47,000-
________
~
Il:l 42,000
37,000
II I
32,000
27,000
~ 1998199900 200001
22,000
99
Estimated
200102
200203
200304
200405
200506 38642
200607 41639
200708 44868
200809 48347
200910 52096
201011
201112
Actual Av!. 24,385 26,286 26,923 28,066 ' 28,333 30,520 32,851 35861 56136 60,489
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.12(B) Punjah: Peak Demand (MW)

12,000 -------~----------~-_. __ ... -'-_'.,-, ..... ._ .. _--~--~ ~_.,_.,----,_._. __ ._---"'.. _-------_. _ .. __ ._--------'.---------------.!
,
1
11,000
.--1
10,000
-j
~----.--------.--_.--.
I
!
9,000
8000
----.
'-'~'~--rY'-
7:000
1I
6,000
5,000
4,000
I 1998-
1999-
i 2000 - I 2001 - i 2002 - I 2003 - . 2004 - i 2005 - I 2006- I 2007 - I 2008 - i 2009 - I 2010- I 2011 - 1
'
I.:---j-
99~_OOJ _01 I 02 -l__ O~L,(),~1_~-IActual met) 4,42.l._W'<129 +-4,90~i 4,936..L.5,455j ~622.l6,~_
06
.J_02...l . ....Cls....L09_1_10
1 __
~mate<l..L-
_....J __
L__
!
1 __
-1-
-~~-f_1~J L __
t-__
__
-'-
7~os..L~~16..L8451....!~908J. Shortage
9390
l. 98991.104~El,00ol
Estimated
Actual met
Chart 2.13(A) Rajasthan: Energy Requirement (GWH) 51,000
46,000
-I
i ,
41,000
-I
,
I
I
~ ~ ~
36,000
----~--~-
--- ---
- --i
1
"
00
r:li r.i
31,000
I
I
26,000
--.-----~-----.--.
--------------------~
I
I
21,000
]998-1 ]99999 00
'r
2000- 200]0] 02
2002- . 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006-1 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 20]]03 04' 05 06 07 I 08 . 09 ]0 ]] ]2
IActuaJ Avl. 22,6]7123,665 24,]44 24,2712,942126,570130,]59 IEstima~tec!._L_-------1-_
L_l_
Actual A vI.
..J __
~J I 32530 ! 348]9 30392

Shorta2"c
_~
37268 39890 42697~570]
48,9]6
Estimated
Chart 2.13(B) Rajasthan: Peak Demand (MW)

9,000
8,000
:;:: ~
-e
::: = " e
7,000
6,000
" ~
--.J
'"
'"
" "
5,000
4,000
3.000
Actual met Estimated
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
=
Chart 2.14(A) Uttar Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)
90,000
1
--~-~--
80,000
~
70,000
----,I
-----------i
60,000
Ii
~
~ 50,000
r.i
ex
40,000
o
30,000
-- .. -----".--
.---
-- ----
:;..--
---+--
--
~~------_
.. -
~------
-\
--~-~
---.----
II
i
i
i
20,000
----~--_._-,-------_.
__ ._._---_. --
,
201011 201112
10,000
199899 Actual Avl. 36,144 Estimated
199900 37,129
200001 37,493
200102 39,785
200203 38,326
200304 41,424
200405 42,581 53033
200506
200607
200708
200809
200910
56167
59486
63002
66725
70668
74845
79,268
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.14(8) Uttar Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)

16,000 .---.-.. -.- ..-.-."""-'--.-.
---------1
14,000
12,000
10,000
00
8,000
6,000
--.
._ Actual met
~~_
..
4,000'
,--__.I.~~o_-.~f~'
11\ctualmet.5,1895,525.~5,641-+-?,990 !,:stimatedl_l_
. 1998- 1999-12000 - ,2001 12002 . 2003 -12004.

03
15,750 16,0291
._!_.
Lo~~~I~~_._09
6,44~ .... _ .._' __ i~57J....8.71~ Shortage
2005 2006 2007 '12008 -12009 - 2010 .. 2011 -.
"~""~~W 1- r ...1.... __ .' .
..... ... ....J.. _'
942UI0193
: 1I02"JJ.l923J..1.2.896113,947 j
"
Estimated
Chart 2.15(A) Uttaranchal: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)

9,000
8,000
7,000
s
::
6,000--
~ ~
00 IV
5,000
... -.--------.
4,000
3,000
2,000
199899 Actual A v!. Estimated
1999- ] 2000-; 01 00 2,250
2001-, 02
200203 3,808
-1
200304 4,197
200405 4,852 5010 Shortage
200506
200607
200910
201011
2011- . 12
2,384 f,245
5398
5816
6267
6752
7275 Estimated
8,445
Actual Avl.
Chart 2.15(B) Uttaranchal: Peak Demand (MW) 1.600
I
J
1,400
1.200
1.000 -~--.--.
00
800.--.----
... --
.. -
~- ... -
~- --
.-~.-.-
.. -
n_.
600 .-
--
..
Actual met
Shortaee
Estimated
:::: [h__
38001-------f
----~-=---- ~==~=-=:----- __==:=-__

--------- ----------------------------------
Chart 2.16(A) Goa: Energy Reqnirement
(GWH)
-------1
i
-----i
33001---------
:::: -----_--_-_- . r - __ ~~~_-1800
------l
-_-_-------1
1300
I------
--------
------,
200203 1845 200304 1979
i
800
I
:
1998-991 IActual Avl. 1465
1999: 00 1314
200001 1525
200102 1772
200405 2323 2323
200506 I 2560
200607
200708
200809
200910
201011
201112
!Estimated
,
Actual AvL
2821
3108
3425
3774
4159
; 4583
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.16(B) Goa: Peak Demand (MW)

750 ------.----'-------.'"' .. ~,--,- ..-".- " -----,--
~
650
, iI
II
i
I
ESO
450
i------------------t--1998- I 1999!
350
250
,
I
\
150 r
I
2000- I 2001 -I
2002-
2003-
1 2004- I 2005- I 2006- I 2007- I 2008- ! 2009- I 201007

1
I
I
2011- I 12
__ I
--"-99
I
OOr,<Jl~:-~L.'l3.-~~-~--i--~
1_385_L -'--__
I
I
08
09
Actual met IEstimated_1
240 I 253 +~~~~+-23~337 __ ..l......._.J._--..-l __ ~ __
L2.8~--'-42.z..L 4611
Shortage
I 504 L551
---1-1
10
,
J
11
~
J
.
6031660
: 721
Actual met
Estimated
90000 80000
-----
Charat 2.17(A) Gujarat: Energy Requirement (GWH) --------------------------------------
~_u
------
-----------.-.-------
70000
-------------
60000 --
--
--------
----
--- ------
--1
50000 -----------------
40000
---------------------i I ;
!
30000
------.-----_.~
20000
199899
Actual A vI. Estimated
1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 201105 07 10 11 12 00 01 02 03 04 06 08 09
!
40832 44285 46787 46175 48162 50292 53167 60124 63220 66475 69898 73497 77282 81261 85445
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.17 (B) Gujarat: Peak Demand (MW)
14,500
12,500
'"=
'" ...:
Q
10,500
Il.
'"
8,500
6,500
-+
~.
2002- 03 2003 -04 7,204
!
4,500
Actual met I
1998 -99 5,877
199900
5,962
2000-01 6,905
2001-02 6,700
2004-05
7~~
2005 - 06 10736
20~. 07
1]271
I 2007 - 08
I
1]833
2008-09 " 2009-10
7.336
I
I
I 2010-1]
2011-12
IEstimated
---"-------
]0226
12422
130421\3692
14,374
A~rll~lmet
E im!'ltp.rl t
Chart 2.18(A) Madhya Pradesh: Energy Requirement (GWH)
50000
-~----------_.-
-.--------------------------.---,
45000
~OOOO
~
.!!l5000
00 00
~ 0: ~
g.
1110000
'"
25000
20000
15000 Actual Avl. Estimated
1998-99 24675
1999-00 2000-01 25389 25365
2001-02 19386
2002-03 26493
2003-04 27171
2004-05 29401 34114
2005-06 36920
2006-07 38748
2007-08 40666
2008-09 42680
2009-10 44793
2010-11
47011
2011-12 49338
--.1.
Actual A vI.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.18 (B) Madhya Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)
9,500
._--,,
8,500
7,500 .
E. '"= S
Q
6,500
~
""
5,500
4,500
..
3,500 .
2,500 11998'11999,,2000, 2001,'12002'12003,. 00 1 01 I 02 IActual met1 3,558 3,5821 3,951 . 3,298 _~~ 4.800
L....2~
~mateU_--.L__ -r--_ ..
==_i_,_i_.
+~_~J 05 ' O~,~~L...oW.....lJ9.--L~l.._II_ .. E....,I 4,846 r--c-+--_+__ 1_ . i- 5944...L6650-.1..692317206 \?sOl 'c..2Il~_812!!.....1 8,46U
I '
2004'12005'12006'12~7',
2008'12009,',2,010'12,011',1
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chhattisgarh:
23000 21000
Chart 2.19(A) Energy Reqnirement
(G WH)
I
I
~
19000 17000 15000
,
I
-i
I
~ ~ r.i
-----,,
I I
13000 11000 9000 7000 5000 1998-99 1:9-[ 9154 200001 9382 200102 6847
I
I
2002- , 03 9561 200405
! 11556
i
I
200607
200708
200910
i
I I
Actual Avl.. Estimated
8670
11750
14377
15623
18448
Actual Avl.
Shorn"e
Estimated
Chart 2.19(B) Chhattisgarh: Peak Demand (MW)

4,000
3,500
3,000
."C
= e ~ "
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
~
I
I
_I
fActual met
'1998-99' 1999I ~
2000-
2001- 1 2002-
2003- 1 2004-
!,212W226
T- 02 _ ~ ~ 04_ Os.... _1_1,329. 1,159.n 1,492 . 1,569 11,749 __
f- ~ +-~-,--_()8_j
1 1
2005-
2006-
2007-
200809
2010- 1 2011-
10 ~
11
11~
I
3,565l
.--L_ --"_ .
1893-1'2'150 .
_1. 2339J.}545
-27691 3012
3277
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Maharashtra:
140000
Chart 2.20 (A) Energy Requirement
(GWH)
120000
100000
~
'0
IV
~ .;
60000
"
80000
---"
""-"~--"--
40000
20000
1"'8_99-00 I
63220 69344
1_
2000-01
71382 ~
i
..L
200 1-02
73934
2004-05
82043 93217
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
~Vl.: ,Estiffintedl
103200
106643
110201
113878
117678
121604
125661
Actual AvI.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.20(B) Maharashtra: Peak Demand (MW)

23,000
----------------,
I I
21,000
19,000
e:
'"
'D
17,000
I I
6
<=l
15,000
" " Ii
13,000
"""
It
~
11,000
I
9,000 7.000
I ,
,,
,
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.21(A)
5500 ~'---'--,--,-,---~-------& Nagar ----- --- ,---~---
Dadra
Haveli: Energy Requirement (GWH)

--' -----------~---------------------------~----------~------,----
5000 -4500 4000 3500 3000--2500 2000 1500 1000 500 --
--
------
--' ------
-------------,-,'----------~'----,
----,
-------,--
'------..
199899
1
1999- 2000-1 2001-1 200200 m moo 955
' 1
2003-[ 2004- i 2005-1 2006M MM'm 1821:
2007-
200809 3580
200910 4013
201011 4498
201112 5042
Actual AvI. ,Estima~_
697
, L__ '
1~
1099
i 1504
L __ ,_I
__
2105 ,2105 ,2542' Shortage
-~-L
2849 ' 3194 Estimated
Actual AvL
Chart 2.21 (B)

Oadra & Nagar Haveli: Peak Demand (MW) 900 800 700
--l
I
I
!
6
'8
Q
600 500 400 300 200

i 100
" a
"
\0
en
~
ll.
"
1998-: 1999-120001_ Actual met
i 2001-'2002-12003-;
2004-'2005-12006-12007-12008-
"2009-! 2010-,2011-'
__ 99_~0~L
L 1III
ItstlmztC<G
=
__03_ L04 __ ~~.J..rY7.-+""O~L_09_' _IO""~~E._ 130-, __171.. '-190 -'- 201 .1_.3i5 __ _391. -'- __ .1. __ I 1 6 _.22~ .L579.l~9_!_7~ ' ..1_ . 391 431J 4"7~ ~ 778..J ~I-j~2_'I
t....<J~1._
.J--t-----L- _1
'
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
= Chart 2.22(A) Daman & Din: Energy Requirement (GWH)
--- .'.---'-~
~_.- .. --------.-------, ----.---.--~------~.----...,-. .. .. --~--~--. ---.-,'.----,'--'-----1
.
3000 -----------~.-.-------.-. __ .. -- .. -----...--.-------..---...--.-~--------.~
2500 ----
---
- -
--
-- -
--
------
------
---
2000 ----------------
------
1500 ---------
----
----
-----------
-------.----------j
1000
___
----i
500
199899
Actual Avl. ]Estimated
1999- 200001 00 620 717
200102 800
200203 966
2003- I 200404 05 1l()~_t_~1186 . 1186

...--1.-_
200506
200607
200708 1790
200809 2038
200910
2010- . 201111 I 12 3005
592
...-J_.l
Actual Avl.
____
1382 . 1573
2319 I 2640
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.22(B) Daman & Din: Peak Demand (MW)
500---
-'-
400
-.--------
.. -.-.-.
5
"" =
Q
'E "
300
_m
_.
__
__
__
._
.:.:
'"
'" '"
2001----I
mm
m_~
1001--~-
oL
-----l-
199R99
--
-----
]999 00
1 05
"- ---- ---! ---
2000 01 lOR
2001 - ' 200202 03 140 170
2003 04
190
2004 -
05
223 223
2005 06
2006 07
2007 08
2009 - I 2010 - 2011 , 10 ~, 11 I 12 ---1 ,

-+---
i :
,
ActuaJll1etL~04
!Estimated
__
---i----
--1---
----~
254
2R9
329 ~
374
426'
485
552
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.23(A) Andhra Pradesh: Energy Reqnirement
(GWH)
90000
----------.--.--
--
---------,--,-----.
80000 --------70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 1998-99 Actual AvL Estimated 38787 199900 43695 -----.--,-.--'--.-.-----.-----------.----
------.-.----.
200001 44685
200102 44890
200203 45788
2003, 04 45916
2004, 05 48573 48928
. 200506
200607
200708
2008- . 200910 09
201011
201112
I
54683 59311 64331 69775 75680 . 82085 89032
Actual A v!.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.23(B) Andhra Pradesh: Peak Demand (MW)

17,000
15,000
e
'"=
Cl
..:.:
13,000
"
"
9,000 ------.--------------
11 ,000
""
7,000
----
.. --.
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
'"
'0
Karnalaka ?,
63000
CharI2.24(A) : Energy Reqniremenl
(GWH)
Ii
[
~ ~
53000
i =:;:
.~.
I
__ .
m ._,._'_. " __ ._
Is ~
0 0
13000
_~
3000
I
1
-.-.--f---+--~-~
~ctua~vIj
LEstimate<f.~I
h998-99
1999-
2000-
I',
2001-., 02
2002200320042005- I 200603 . 04 , 05 ~~
I', 1 1
22739+261()5_f_37685
!
I
L_,..J
29058129541 I
I 3l3~7
I
I 3368U 135157
37334
--1- I -L-'
1
200708
2008- 2009-1201009 [ 10 . 11 47477
"
201112
I
!
50417 I 53540
I
I
39646
42101 I 44709
Actual AvI.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.24(B) Karnataka: Peak Demand (MW)

9,500 -
8,500
7,500
"="e
~
6,500
CI
'It ""
5,500
4,500
,,"
-..-"
.... ....-
3,500 .
,.
1998-'1999-' ,99 00 ._._ ..

i
2000-' 01 ,
"
200102
2002-,2003.03 . .' _,- 04, __
2004-,2005-' 2006-'2007-' 05 ' ' _06 .. , 07 .__ , 08 ..
2008-' ,09 --1.~
li\ctu~met ,Es,timated
~.
'.J,226....'l,881 __ <l,371_~4,42!. !_4,~5_'1,~5_,_

'
__ .
'
._.
..L__
.__
. __
5,612..:.... _ _ '- __ '__ -,- __ ',5928 6275' 6642 i 7031 I 7442

. ----'-__
L __ ,
7877
i ._.
200910 .
2010-,2011II .__ 12
u
,__ ~
.. __
__
8338 ' 8,826 '

..._...
Actual met
Shorta!e
Estimated
Chart 2.25(A) Kerala: Energy Requirement (GWH)
19000
~-----
--.-.--~.-~---~---~--~-. -~~-~
-.----~~---.~----~-~-~--~-.... -------~-. .---~-~-~
18000 -17000 --------
----~-~-
16000 ----~------------~-----15000 -----~----~--.-~~ -~---~--
o
N
14000 ----~---13000 ----12000 11000
2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 201106 07 08 09 10 11 12 13760 14549 15384 16266 17200 18186 19230
Actual AvL
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.25 (B) Kerala: Peak Demand (MW)
3,500
6
'l:l
3,000
o w
= " e
2,500
l.
2,000
1,500
1,000
I
'EstimateU
11998 , 99
IActual m~~2.169
1999 - , 2000 - 1 2001 - I 2002 - 1 2003 -12004 - 12005 - 2006 00 " 01 , 02 , 03 . 04 , 05 " 06 1 07 ,------1----r-~ I---+-' 1 2.331 I 2,189 I 2,347 , 2,427 . 2,421 I 1
I'
I,
I'
2007 - I 2008 08 . 09
I
I
I
1
2009 10
2010 I
II
'
I
2011 12
=----j
I, . __
,,_.----.-l __
L-...----L
2452 Shortage
2650
2779
2915
3058 !320713364
3,528
=:
Actual met
Estimated
Chart 2.26 (A) Tamil Nadu: Energy Reqnirement

100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000
(GWH)
1998-99 Actual Avl.

Estimated
1999-
00
37464
200001 4069~
2001200202 i 03
200304,
I
I
200405
200506
200607
200708
200809
200910
201011
201112
34074
428521 4475~-L~450
51147 ,__ 55479 T59824 64510 , 69563 Shortage
---L~I_~~_.1~1449~
,~,
75011
I 80886
8722~
Actual Avl.
Estimated
Chart 2.26 (8) Tamil Nadu: Peak Demand (MW)

16,000
14,000
12,000
-------.--.--
..-.--.~---
.. -----~
..
-----------~
10,000
.--------~--
..
o v.
,,
8,000
6,000
4,000
11998 AC1ualmetJ !Estimated'
I,
1999
2001- , 2002 :],~:3

...
2003 '7,~4 '8,123

821~_ I -; .. -.-1-
2008 -
2009- ..2010 -
2011 12:
~;O;
5,~:0 _6,~~~6,~~
-'- __
.. ... ~ 09-LIO_~
I~J..
Estimated
.._2~.2.<J....j 10090J....l...08071..t..l275_, 12398L_I328~14,224'
Actual met
Shortage
~,
5000 4500 4000

3500
----~-.- --~-.~~-~~_.~ ... ~-~ .. --~.~. ~~~-~~~~-~--. -~-~.~--~~~-~~ ~~~~~l .~~.----~~~---~-~~-~-.. -----~-~----.~-~...---1
Chart 2.27 (A) Pondicherry: Energy Reqnirement (GWH)
0
0\
~ " =i
r.>l
:= e:
3000
2500
2000 1500
Chart 2.27(B) Pondicherry: Peak Demand (MW)

800
700
800
6
C
'" e
500
0 --.J
Q .>Ii
"
400 300
'" ~
200
,
100
-I-
1998- 1999-I- 2000- -2001- 2002- -2003- I 2004- 2005- 2006- ; 2007-12008 - 2009- _2010- ; 2011- _ ~ . 00.,
!Actual met _~~_L217 ~imatedL---.l_
o~J~. I ~8-tz82 ..L ._L_. __ ._226
~1~1-~~_~_09 ~2~+2~+_-tA 347~~
421----'-~~J..2.11J
t----.L,
J 11 f--.~ .-=1 _..---i-"'-'I-'~

10 563_,1_62(l_..:.. 683
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
=
Chart No:2.28(A) ". 0" Bihar: Energy Requirement (GWH)
17000
. 15000
o 00
2001-02 6128
-ill-
2002-03 5888
2003-04 5908 2004-05 6115 7201 8321. 9629 11134 12814' 14886 17213 19905 200506 2006'07 20b1-08 2008'09 2009'10, 2010-11 2011-12
Estimated.
YEAR
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
91
Chart 2.28(B) Bihar: Peak Demand

4000
3500 -'-'---'--'---'--'---,
-.
--'-'-
----
-/ .)"-~
--
3000 -,-----,
__
/ ,-,--L '
/
2500
j- -- -- -- ---------,... ,-,-'-,---
----.-,-., ,7/-- --'.--J"
2000 ---
200102 . ActUal niet ~ Estimated 1150
200203 1325
2003-04 788
2004-051,_2005.06 ---< 1154 Ll.358 980

I
~06.0? __ YEAR 1598
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
1881
2213
2605
3065
3607
Actual met
Shortage
~~
Estimated
Chart2:29(A) . JhBrkhBnd: Energy Requirement (GWIl)
-----,
o
12000
______ J
1oo
8000
----------------------
2001-02 9076
2002-03 9391
2003-04 10106
2004-05 11057 11057
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
-+- Actual
___
Avl. E'3timateCl
12308
13700
15249
16974
18894
21031
23408
YEAR
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.29(8) Jharkhand: Peak Demand
-l
i
I
" I
I
!
-+- Actual
met
2001-02 1694 .
---Actual met
2002-03 1807
2003-04 1615
2004-05 1991 1991
2005-06 2222
2006-07 2480
2007-08 2768
2008-09 3089
2009-10 3448
2010-11 3548
2011-12 4296
,..+'EStimated;
YEAR
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.30(A) Orissa: Energy Requirement """_. ,, U_"_._." (GWH) __._ . _...... ".
27000 25000 23000 21000 --19000.. 17000
15000 ~---
..--
... -.----
... -.
13000 ~-----------_._-~ 11000
..
I
Actual Avl .
---
-e..... __ .
....--
" ..
."" __ .
9000 ____ '. 1998-99, 1..999.00~0-01!.2001 .. . 20.02-03.1.~~3 ~04-0~ 2005-.06 2006~07l2007.08 2008-09 2~~9.1rl0-l1.l~()12~2.2.J 02 .. O<\t.' ;.,. ~_ 12483 : ~37s..~_13858 I_. ' .. __
: ~m . ted
.----"._1.._ .. ... I __ _ __
.L
13!l80L'5.37_1~ _16900.J...'El~82l 20431
J 2246.4
__
2<l.6~.U71~
YEAR
Shortage
Estimated
5000
Chart 2.30(8) OI1~!!!I: Peak Demand
4500
4000
3500
I
I
3000
------i
I
I
I
I I
2500
--I
-.--j
i
i
2000
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
45000
------1
Chart 2.31(A) West Bengal: Energy Requirement (GWH)

_n
40000 ---------
----------
j
I
I
35000 ---------------------.--
---
--
-----
----
-~-~
i
30000-----
I
I
.j>.
I,
--------
25000 -----.---
20000
-~--
15000
2006-07 2007-08, 2008-09 2009-10 2010-" 30084 32009 34058 36238 38557
2011-12 41020
1_
-+-Actual
Avl.
Estimated I
Actual AvL
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.31.(B)
8000
West Bengal: Peak Demand
7500
7000
6500
6000
5000
j I
4500
:::: .. -~--~-_
3000
,. -j
-~~~--I
---j
! 200910
6099 6502 ~2010-11
'998-~99-00~000.ll.' 3473 ,
j __
2001-0~1 2002-03 I 2003-04 I 2004-0512005-~~06-0712007.0612008.09 4094 I 4068 I 44~ 47?3 I I 5035 I I 5367 I 5721
i 201,.,21 !
.
Ac1ualmet I
3649
:-.If- E"imate~
L __ L _ -.L_----.L__
399:l-1-
4723
6931
I 7407
YEAR
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.32(A) Sikkim: Energy Requirement (GWH)

350
300 ~--
250 --_.~----~----_
.._----------
200
150 ~----
100 ----
1998-99 1999-00 12000-01l2001-02', 2002-03 ~3-0412004-05' 132 ' 133 " 1~! 184
Actual Avl. f-227 Estimated

I
I
Actual Avl.
2005-06' 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09' 2009-10: 2010-11 2011-12

I
r- ~
-; -'-,
204' 204
218
234'
247
284
285
305
320
YEAR
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.32(8)
Slkkim: Peak Demand

90
.--- .. --
..--.--)
I
80
70
!i' ~
."C
~
E
Be
.....
t3
~ ll.
50
40
30 i-+-ActuaJ met
j' __
Estimated
84
67
71
76
80
83
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.33(A) Arunachal Pradesh :Energy Requirement (GWH)

400
350
JI
I
I,
300
250
200
150
i -j
I
I
199899 144 1999-00 153.08 2000-01 156.05 2004-05 . 2005-06 . 158.00 158.00 209.85
II
100 -+-Actual Avl.
2006-07 232.00
2007-08
2008-09 284
2009-10'
2010-11
201112'
, 257.00 314.00 348.00 385.52
.......- Estimated
YEAR
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.33(B) Arunachal Pradesh: Peak Demand
120.00
110.00
100.00
i'
90.00
'0
c3
80.00
:il
"-
70.00
60.00
50.00
~oo
'1998-9911999-00. 2000~i . 80.00 2001~ 2002-03: 2003~2004:~2005~_2006-~2007-~2008.0912009-10 , 62.00 2010-11 2011-12
i::+-Actual met
68.00
75.00
1 94.00_-l-98.00~i~50.00
.----L- __
f-I
81
IlL
I
_
87
i.
"~Estimat~L_.
__
._~--L ._' __ __
.L
~~~
YEAR
--T- ;
94
~----:;-_1~n011~~_~ 1
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
=
Chart 2.34(A)
8000
.~s~.'l!"_:5.ner!!LflI!Clul!~m':.nt (GWHL
.__ .
..
._. _
7000
6000 -------------------
tv
5000
4000
3000
2000
1998-99 2861
1999-00 2000-01 2964 3224
2001-02
31n
2002-03 3178
2003-04 3164
2004-05 2005-06 3810 3810 4182
2006-07 4618
2007-08 5100
2008-09 5632
2009-10 6219
2010-11 6868
2011-12 7585
-+- Actual
__
Avl.
Estimated
YEAR
Actual AvL
- " _,"
Shortage
Estimated
~'
/t5~. r~
'C
c:
CIl
~E
m
'"
ID
0
M.><
'
..
CIl
t: o .c
UJ
'" '"
t:D..
.c:
U
<C
E
''""
"'
c ..,.
c c
'"
c c
c
c c
'"
c c
"'
I
Chapter II . Summary and Review
CMw) puewaa >tead
121
Chart 2.35(A) Manipur:Energy Requirement (GWH)

1000
900
800
N N
700
600
500
400
1998-99 445
1999-00 456
2000-01 426
2001-02 448
2002-03 491
2003-04 504
2004-05 469 537
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
-+- Actual
.___
Avl. Estimated
581
629
681
737
797
862
932
YEAR
tActual
Av1.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.35(8) Manipur: Peak Demand

210
190
170
150
N W
130
I
-------1
I
i,
; I I
110
90
I
70
~ __ Actual met Estimated
1998-99 1999-00' 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
94 97 87 93 90 121 90
103
125
144
154
165
177
189
203
YEAR
Actual met Shortage
Estimated
" '" "
~
::
'" 3 " 3
'""
0 0
"
<
0.
'" ,,-
2200
Chart 2.36(A) Meghalaya: Energy Requirement (GWH)
2000 1800 -----------------------------
1600
1400 ------
1200 1000
un
800
600
400
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 I 2003-04 2004-05 2005-08 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 493 583 595
j---
-+- Actual
__
Avl. Estimated
711
936
959
1195 1374
1460
1551
1648
1751
1860
1976
2101
YEAR
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.36(8) Meghalaya: Peak Demand

475
425
375
,
3'
::!
m E
325
'6'
"
II
275
N V.
.!
m
m
Q.
225
I,
.-----""----,-----'-------'---------------
175
--!
,
I I
I
I
125
-!
Actual met
""",."~.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.37(A)
Mizoram: Energy Requirement (GWH)
450
400
--
-----------
----------------------
x c
!
~
!!!.
350
---------
---------------------------
E
300
:; gII:
~ o
250
200
150
1998-99 187
1999-00 217
2000-01 251
2001-02 284
2002-03 278
2003-()4 278
2004-05 222 238
2005-08
2006-07
200708
2008-09
2009-10 343
2010-11
201112
-+- Actual
__
Avl. Estimated
254
274
295
318
370
398
YEAR
Actual Avl.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.37(8) Mizoram: Peak Demand

120
110
100
lE'
'tl
!.
~ ~
E
-.)
90
.!l
80
70
..-.' 199899 1999-00 2000-~ 74

~_~
-,i
60
f:! ---,"clua!
__
met
Estimated
72
___
'_2~
_~+_
i
2.001.02: 200,,2,03 2003-,04,2004-05
i 2005.06\2006.07.
i
76
I~~
2007-08' 200809
200910
2010-11
2011-12
n
--L
7~
67--l~~
~?1
Shortage
B7
93
100
107
115
YEAR
Actual met
Estimated
=
Chart 2.38.(A) Nagaland: Energy Requirement (GWH)
750
650---'-~'---'---"
~--'--"-~-----'---'"
550
------
----
----~.---_
..----
..----.-------
-..---
----
..---
------.--
450
_u __
.---~--.
---.
'--"--
.. --
- ---
~
N 00
350
-----.--
..--
...---
250
-------
---.
150
1998-99 175
1999-00 204
2000-01 219
2001-02 246
2002-03 292
2003-04 300
2004-05 324 330
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2006-09
2009-10 - 2010-11
2011-12
-+- Actual
___
Avl. Estimated
-----'-.
Actual Avl.
-YEAR
367
408
454
505
562
626
698
Shortage
Estimated
170
Chart 2.38(B) Nagaland: Peak Demand
150
110
----
90. ------- .. .-0

N
__
.... _
...
1
,
F
70
------
--
--
50
-~-
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.39(A) Tripura: Energy Requirement (GWH)

1300
1200 ------
1100
'" ~
;: ;;
"3
1000
-----
.. "-----.-----
----j
!
_.I
900 ----
.-.
,i
i
a:
UJ
'" ~ c
.
0"
BOO
------i I
.. ---
700
.-.-----)
'----,----2004~5 527 644 700 200S.06j 2006-07 2007-08 : 2008-09 2009~10 2010-11 1046 1134
600 ----.
-----
500
1998-99
-+-Actual Av!.
___ Estimated
562
-I
- 759
i
2011-12 1229
822
B91
966
YEAR
Actual AvL
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.39{B) Tripura: Peak Oemand

310
290---270
__
250
---
---
---
~ i!!.
..,
0
230' --- ---- --
---
.-
E 2l
w
. =
'"
210
-----
190
170
150
Actual met
Shortage
Estimated
.g ""
!1
a .:1 "
<
'" '" B
" "
0.
Chart 2.40(A) Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Energy Requirement

400
(GWH)
'" " "
350 -
.------
.. ---
---
-----
...-----------.--
...
:0 ;: ~ E
300 -------
----
--
---
--
-----
250 -----------
---
---
---------.---
w
N
'3
ex:
<: w
>Cl
".
200
~
150
100
50
Actual Av1.
1998-99 98
1999-00 2000-01 , 2001-02 99 107 129
2002-03 135
2003-04 153
2004-05 126 126
2005-06 ' 2006-07 146 193
2007-08 219
2008-09 248
2009-10 281
2010-11 316
2011-12 344
Estimated
YEAR
Actual Avi.
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.40.(8) Andaman & Nicobar Islands: Peak Demand

80
70
!i'
~
'tl C
60
50
'"
ll.
40
30
20
199899 22
1999- 200000 . 01 24
1
I 200102
2002I 03 30 .
200304 34
2004- I 200505 . 06 28 28 33
200607 43
200708 49
I 2008- I 200909 56 10 63
Estimated
201011
I 201112 77
-Actual met ___ Estimated
25
I ~
Actual met
YEAR Shortage
()
.lj &
,.
'" 3 a
"!
'"
" 1:' <

0-
Chart 2.41(A) Lakshdweep: Energy Requirement

45
(GWH)
0'
~
40
35
30 '---,
-.-.---.---
.-
-.-,.-.--
25
20
15 .---------,----,-.--
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2tJ06.07 2007-08 2008-09,2009-10 20 20 21 22 22
.2010-11 2011-12 40
22
24
26
28
31
34
37
Actual AvL
Shortage
Estimated
Chart 2.41 (B)

Lakshadweep:
12.00
Peak Demand(MW)
11.00
~ ~ ~
10.00
:E
'C
9.00
S
w v,
c:
Q .I<:
'"
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00 ____
'1
1998-99
1999- ,2000-,20011
I 2002-
'
2003~
200<1- 200505 __
I
2006-
2007-
2008-
200910
,
I
2010- I 2011~.
__
+-_-+....<JO_J_02... 6
I__
02 6,,__
,_0~_1
1 ~
IActualmetW_I_5_+-IEstimated , __
L.......J.
'__
164T'~.
~~_~
Shortaqe
L_+_
06
I~~--.Cl~i
-L~3.-'
;
-+ __
I
.;.._...:..
!
' 11.5...J
8.3
:~:Cl....l...98_1.1Q,6
Actual met
Estimated
!
17th Electric Power SUNey Central Electricity Authorily
/.tli:i.. . :
~~t ,>
,
,,/
;'/
2.42
REVIEW OF FORECAST
(PEUM)
2.42.1 All India Scene: In the year 201 I- 12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 208, 185 & 202 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shaH decline by 8.83 % and AELF shaH reduce from 79.01 % to 72.39% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh EEC 03-04 GWh, GWh, 362799
755847
CAGR % CAGR %
8yrAclual
8yrForecast
EEC 95-96
3.43
9.61
277029
EER 11-12
GWh,
CACR-%
GWh
968659
EER 03-04
GWh,
CAGR%
524299
8yr-Actual
8yr-Forecast
4.98
7.98
EER 95-96
355519
Particulars TDL %
Value 1995-96 22.08 80.93
Value 2003-04 30.8 79.01
Value 2011-12 21.97 72.39
Past-Avo Growth per year - % 1.09 -0.24
Forecast-Av. Growth per year- % -1.10 -0.83
AELF %
APEL11-12
MVV. 15274-6
CAGR - %
CAGR _ Ok
APEL03-04-
MVV.
75756
8yr-Actual S.29 __
Syr-Foreca~t
APEL9S-ge
I~f;!~<;--;
., -------IMVV.
50146
136
!L~_n
~ Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey
,
2.43 REVIEW OF FORECAST(PEUM) REGIONAL SCENE
2.43.1 : Northern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 227,191 & 215 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12.17 % and AELF shall reduce from 78.94 % to 69.92 % during 8 year forecast period upto 201]-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 222668 EEC 03-04

CAGR-%
8yr-Actual CAGR-%
8yr-Fore<:ast
EEC 95-96
______
~~~6
3.37
10.82
EER 11-12
GWh 294841
CAGR
%
CAGR-%
8yr-Forecasl
EER 03-04
8)T-Actllal
4.98 EER 95-96
8.41
Particulars TDL-% AELF-%
Value 1995-96 28.33 75.04
Value 2003-04 36.65 78.94
Value 2011-12 24.48 69.92
PastAverage Variation per year- % 1.04 0.49
ForecastAverage Variation per year- % -1.52 -1.13
APEL11-12
MVV,
48137
APEL03-04
MVV,
22346
CAGR % 8yr-Actllal
CAGR
% 8yr-Forecast
4.32
APEL95-96
10.07
MVV,
15937
137
Chapter
1I : Summary and Review
,.:,
17th Electric Power SU/vey
Central ElectricityAuthontY~~:
2.43.2: Western Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 191, 172 & 204% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 7.47 % and AELF shall reduce from 84.71 % to 71.45 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
EEC 03-04
------~--~
GWh I 116641
CAGR - % CAGR - %
EEC 95-96
IGWh 95462
8 r-Actual 2.54
8 r-Foreca~l 8.44
EER 11-12
~~~GWh :" '
L GWh I 171090
294860
EER 03-04
~--------
EER 95-96
Particulars Value 1995-96 TDL-% 19.98 AELF-% 80.92
Value 2003-04 31.83 84.71
Value 2011-12 24.36 71.45
Past Average Variationner year- % 1.48 0.47
Forecast-Ayerage Variation ner year- % -0.93 -1.66
APEL
11-12
APEL 03-04
- ,
<
"
>,.
, ...
M\N. 23055
CAGR-%
M\N. 47108
CAGR-%
APEL 95-96
M\N. ~ __ 16830
8 r-Actual 4.01
8 r-Forecast
9.34
Chapter
II : Summary and Review
138
~~~/
,
2.43.3: Southern Regiou: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 197,184 & 182 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 5.55 % and AELF shall improve from 71.06 % to 71.67 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
EEC 03-04
I 107427 GWh
_______ 1
CAGR'7f llyr-AcllJ~1 4.91
CAGRCy(
RYI'ror~ca'l
--~~~-8.85
EEC 95-96
~~~4
EER 11-12
GWh 253443
EER 03-04
~. __ .
g~P40
CAGR - %
8yr-Aclual
CAGR-'7f 8yr-Foreca<;t
5.62
7.92
EER 95-96
Value 1995-96 17.66 81.12
Value 2003-04 22.01 71.06
Value 2011-12 16.46 71.67
Past- Average Variation per vear- % 0.54 -1.26
Forecast -Average Variation per vear- % -0.69 0.08
APEL11-12
40367
APEL
03-04
22127
I CAGR - 'ff
!
8yr-Acrual 7.39
'Ie llyr-FQ~raSl
O\GR -
7.MfI
APEL
95-96
1_ ..
112513
139
Chapter
II Summary and ReviL'w
/"1
CentralElectricity Authority!kc~r
2.43.4 : Eastern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 237, 204 & 220 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 10.67 % and AELF shall reduce from 72.04 % to 66.86 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 87521
EEC 03-04
_______
______
:_:;~: I
I 30388
GWh
----
~~~8
CAGR-% 8vr-Actual 2.4S
CAGR-% 8vr-Forecast 11.37
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12
EER 03-04
--------
IGWh 54682
CAGR-% 8yr-Actual
CAGR-% 8yr-Forecast
4.47
9.35
EER 95-96
Value 1995-96 2i.l4 72.71
Value 2003-04 32.39 72.04
Value 201112 21.72 66.86
PastAverage Variation per year- % 1.41 -0.08
AF'EL11-12
MVV
190BB AF'EL03-04
MVV
B664
CAGR-% 8yr-Actual 4.59 CAGR-% 8yr-Forecast
10.38
AF'EL95-96
16~~
l ~_~._. _
-----_~----
Chapt~r II: Summary and Review
140
J.~f
//'il
2.43.5: North-Eastern Region: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 283, 219 & 228 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 17.80% and AELF shall reduce from 62.42 % to 59.98 % during 8 year forecast period upt02011-12.
EEC 11-12
~. w~ ~ -",.~= .. ".' :', " - -,
""'~GWh
'.<;f~' ''''.
...
CAGR'~%
8YT-Aclual
10576
CAGR - %
8YT-Forecast
EEC 03-04
IGWh 3742
3.69
13.87
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12
CAGR-% Ryr-Aclual CAGR-",{ 8yr-Forecast
EER 03-04
jGWh 6080
5.68
10.31
EER 95-96
------
IGWh 3909
Value 2003-04 38.45 62.42 Value 2011-12 20.65 59.98 PastVariation %
Average
Particulars
Value 1995-96 28.37 57.95
per year1.26
TDL-% AELF-%
0.56
APEL11-12
- .~-
-4.70
-CAG-R - %
Syr-Actual
IVIVV
2537
APEL03-04-
!'v1VV, 1112
CAGR-%
8YT-Forecast
10.86
APEL95-96
______ ~jIVI\/V. 770
141
~y/
2.44
REVIEW OF FORECAST
(PEUM) STATE/UT WISE SCENE
2.44.1 Jammu & Kashmir: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 229, 165 & 163% respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 20.00 % and AELF shall improve from 61.04 % to 62.00 % during 8 year forecast period upt02011-12.
GWh
CAGR, I;;
EEC 11-12
CAGR-% 8yr-AcllJ~1
8080
EEC 03-04
Ryr-Fon'CJ.,( 10.89
9.43
EEC 95-96
EER11-12
GWh 11202
EER 03-04
_________
IG~~o
I
CAGR _ 'I: 8yr-Actu~1
CMiR _ Of, gyr-F"rcc~sl
9.38
6.48
EER 95-96
Value 1995-96 48.08 65.13
Value 2003-04 47.87 61.04
Value 2011-12 27.87 62.00
Past- Average Variation per year- % -0.03 -0.51
Forecast- Average Variation per year- % -2.50 0.12
APEL11-12
MVV.
2063 ~CAGR~ -,~;

i
APEL03-04
MVV. 1268
8yr-Actual 10,27
CAGR-% 8yr-Forecasl 6.27
APEL9S-96
~-----
MVV. 580
Chaptt:r II : Summary and Review
142
17t11Electric Power Survey
2.44.2 Delhi: In the year 2011-]2 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 229,180 & 185 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 15.93 % and AELF shall reduce from 69.97 % to 68.00 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 EEC 03-04 EEC 95-96
["lJW,1.#I!!:'~~~Wh
27207
I I I GWh
6581
I GWh
11903
CAGR -'i! ~yr-Ao,;l\1al
CAGR', 10.82
Syr-Furo,;o,;a,1
7.69 .
--
EER 03-04
___________
20160 IGWh
i CAUT< '~.Hyr-A"wal ------
<{lli:.'V 'i, SYTr"n~la'l

;I~ --.---
5.49
7.63
EER 95-96
_______ l
~~~5
Value 1995-96 49.94 75.98 Value 2003-04 40.96 69.97 Value 2011-12 25.03 68.00 Past- Average Variation per year- % -1.12 -0.75
I
--_._-~------------
Forecast- Average Variation per year- % -2.09 -0.11
APEL11-12
MVV.
6092
AP'EL-03-04
MVV.
3289
CAGR-% Ryr-Aetual
CAGR-'k llyr-Furco,;a~(
6.58
18.01
APEL9S-96
I~~5
143
Chapter
II : Summary and Revicw
Centrat Electricity Authorily
~f
/i
< ,
2.44.3 Haryana: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 222, 194 & 209 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 9,25% and AELF shall reduce from 68,88 % to 64.12 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
---
GWh 28639
CAGR - % 8yr-Actual CAGR-'il 8yr-Forecast
EEC 03-04
5.60
10.47
EEC 95-96
<,
~'<,.,- ~~~"'-~ ~
~ >1
'
~,~~
>
EER 11-12
-~=~<il1Jv"",~>~~"'_ _...... _.'i"""""-"-' . _."~~
GWh 38417
EER 03-04
CAGR - % 8yr-Actual
CAGR - % 8yr-Foreca,t
6.04
8.65
EER 95-96
_____
~~~9
Value 1995-96 32.48 78.66
Value 2003-04 34.70 68.88
Value 2011-12 25.45 64.12
Past -Average Variation per year- % 0.28 -1.22
Forecast-Average Variation per vear- % -1.16 -0.59
APEL11-12
MVV, 6839
APEL03-04
MVV, 3278
CAGR-% 8yr-Actual
CAGR-% 8yr-Forecast
7.82
9.63
APEL95-96
______
! 1795
MVV.
Chapler
II. Summary and Review
144
il;r.l" ':_:.~.W:'Central Electricity Authority
17th Electric Power Swvey
2.44.4 Himachal Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 278, 237 & 240 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12% and AELF shall rednce from 68.42% to 67.34% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011- 12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 7617 EEC 03-04

'.'
I
IGWh 2737
ICAGR o/c
I
llyr-Actual 6 89 .
CAGR-'k 8yr-Foreca'l 13.65
I
I
EEC 95-96
IGWh 1606
II
i
I I I
EER 11-12
........
GWh 9504
CAGR-% 8v[ForccaQ
I
,
EER 03-04
i.
.\GWh 4016
CAGR-% 8yr.Acrual
~76
EER 95-96
11.37-
IGWh 2209
Value 1995-96 27.30 49.84 Value 2003-04 31.85 68.42 Value 2011-12 19.85 67.34 Past- Average Variation per year- % 0.57 2.32 Forecast- Average Variation per year% -1.50 -0.13
APEL11-12
MVV. 1611
APEL03-04
CAGR-% Syr-Actual 3.57
CAGR-% 8yr-Forecast 11.59
APEL9S-96
MVV, 506
145
Chapter
Centrat tectricity uthoritY4~u E A
2.44.5 Punjab: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 211,198 & 196 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 4.8 % and AELF shall improve from 61.97 % to 62.77 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 47427 EEC 03-04 GWh 22465

CAGR - % CAGR%
8yr-Acttlal
8yr-Forecast
4.23
9.79
EEC 95-96
GWh 16130
EER 11-12
GWh 60489 GWh 30520

CAGR-% 8yr-Actual CAGR% 8yr-Forecast
EER 03-04
5.44
8.93
EER 95-96
GWh 19981
Value 1995-96 19.27 59.40
Value 2003-04 26.39 61.97
Value 2011-12 21.59 62.77
Past- Average Varialion Der year - % 0.89 0.32
Forecast- Average Variation oeT vear- % -0.60

--
0.10
.A.PEL"1
"1-12
IVIVV "11 000

I
.Po..PEL03-04
CAGR-% 8yr-Actual IVIVV , 4.88
CAGI<.-% 8yr-Forecast 8.7S
APEL9S-96
3840
146
//-1. I~)
..
i;;;!
2.44.6 Rajasthan: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 247, 184 & 205 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 19,06 % and AELF shall reduce from 73,14 % to 65,83% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12,
EEC 11-12 MkWh, 36422 EEC 03-04 GWh 14720

CAGR - % 8yr-Actu~1 CAGR 'Ie 3rr-Forecast
1.36
11.99
EEC 95-96
GWh 13213
EER 11-12
CAGR-% 8yr-Actllal
GWh 48916
CAGR-% 8yr-ForaaSl
EER 03-04
GWh 26570
4.52
7.93
EER 95-96
GWh 18661
Particulars
Value 1995-96 29.19 77.35
Value 2003-04 44.60 73.14
Value 2011-12 25.54 65.83
TDL-% AELF-%
Past - Average Variation per year% 1.93 -0.53
Forecast- Average Variation per year - % -2.38 -0.91
A.PEL11-12
IVIVV
84-82
A.PEL03-04-
CAGR-% 8yr"Actual
CAGR% 8yr-Forecast
5.25
A.PEL9S-9e.
9.36
IVIVV
2754-
147
Central Electricity Authority,-,~~-9f

'.'.'C-;"--""-c/.i
2.44.7 Ullar Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 226, 191 & 231 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shan decline by 11.3 % and AELF shall reduce from 78.43% to 64.88% during 8 year forecast period upt02011-J2.
1--EEC 11-12 EEC 03-04 EEC 95-96
I
GWh 58908 GWh 26103 GWh 24639
CAGR-%
CMiR-9( 8yr-ForecaSl
i 8_~r-Aclual
0.72
10.71
------1
I
EER 11-12 GWh 79268 GWh 1\1424 GWh 31365
CAGR - 'k l:!yr-AClual CAGR - 'ii 8yr-Forecasl
EER 03-04
3.54
8.45
EER 95-96
Particulars
-------------
Value 1995-96 21.44 79.18
Value 2003-04 36.98 78.43
Value 2011-12
--------
TDL-% AELF-%
I _______ ~L,. .___
25.68 64.88
--.
Past- Average I Variation per year% 1 __ 1.94
-----
I -009 I ----~-----'---------- -....
-r- ::.~~
!VI VV 13947
CAGR"it
l:!yr-AcluaJ
Forecast- Average Variation per year- %
APEL11-12
APEL03-04
MVV.
6029
CAGR - 9~
8yr-Forecas!
APEL9S-96
I---------.J
MVV,
4522
14/;
~\'-~!~,
17th Electn-c Power Survey
2.44.8 Uttaranchal: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 246. 201 & 208 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shal! decline by 14.0 % and AEE_LE"F S1h1'"112''''"'' Crom """
m """ "m'., " >'"

GWh 2662 GWh 2289
,ore,""
.=:,":~"",~! .
...... 6539
CAGR - 'lr
Ryr-h>(ccJS(
c
CAGR - 'k Ryr-Actual
EEC 03-04
1.91
11.89
EEC 95-96
J
GWh 8445
CAGR- 'Ii Ryr-Actual
EER 11-12
EER 03-04
GWh 4197 GWh 2914
CAGR-'!l
4.67
"YCCO"'''] '.U
EER 95-96
~JJ
l
I
II
Particulars DL-o/~5
Value 1995-96
Value 2003-04 36.56
Value 2011-12 22.56 62.87
Past - Average Variation per year - % 1.89 -0.16
Forecast-Average Variation per year- %
,
-66.26 65.01
..
._----,
-1.75 -0.27
i
I
"AEiF% I
.-.----.,
,-, -",1
---------
APEL11-12
MVV, 1533
APEL03-04
737
CAG~;i(jR
_~yr-.~Clllid
-~k _~YI-l'()[elast
4.92
9.59
___ -.i
APEL95-96 ~MVV' 502
--
...
----------'
149
"'-.-'.:?"c'
/i=~~'!Y
,'--'~~lc'ii
2.44.9 Chandigarh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 215, 212 & 199 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.09 % and AELF shall improve from 58.81 % to 62.81 % during 8 yearforecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh GWh 1827

CAGR-% Syr-Actual CAGR-% 8yr-Foreca~t
EEC 03-04 GWh
849 558
EEC 95-96
5.38
10.06
EER 11-12 GWh 2308 EER 03-04 GWh 1087

CAGR-% 8yr-Actual CAGR-'1( Syr-Forecast
EER 95-96
GWh 811
3.73
9.87
Value 1995-96 31.20 62.98
Value 2003-04 21.94 58.81
Value 2011-12 20.85 62.81
APEL11-12
.4-20
APEL03-04-
CAGR-% 8yr-Actual
CAGR% Ryr-ForecaSl
4.62
8_97
APEL95-96
MVV.14-7
~----------------~--~_._-----------------Chapter
]! .
Summary and Rc\-je\\
150
,fL~,'
2.44.10 Goa: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 252, 232 & 214 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 6.69 % and AELF shall improve from 67.04% to 72.53% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC11-12
GWh
EEC 03-04
GWh
1484
CAGR % 8yr-Ac!ual
3744
CAGR - % 8yr-Forecast
EEC 95-96
GWh
841
7.36
12.26
EER 11-12
EER 03-04
CAGR-% 8yr-Actual CAGR-% 8yr-Forecasl
EER 95-96
GWh
1149 Value 1995-96 26.81 64.30 Value 2003-04 24.99 67.04 Value 2011-12 18.30 72.53 Past-Average Variation per year- % -0.23 0.34
7.03
11.07
Forecast -Average Variation per year- % -0.84 0.69
APEL11-12
72
MVV
APEL03-04
CAGR-% 8yr-Actua!
CAGR-% 8yr-fnrecast
6.47 APEL9S-96
______________________ ~,~~~:e:::~
9.98
151
Cll:lptcr 11: ~\lmI1Mry lInd Rl'vk\\
17th Electric Power SUlVey
.?!~_~
2.44.11 Gujarat: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 172, 170 & 200 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.07 % and AELF shall reduce from 79.69% to 67.86% during 8 year forecast period upt0201 1-12.
EEC 11-12
GWh 65425
EEC 03-04
IGWh 37972
CAGR - % 8yr-AclUal
CAGR-% 8yr-ForccaSl
EEC 95-96
IGWh 25882
4.91
7.04
EER 11-12
GWh I 85445
EER 03-04
""
','
."''''''1 GWh 50292
CAGR - % 8yr-Adual
CAGR-'J" llyr-Forecast
4.74
6.85
EER 95-96
IGWh 34733
Value 1995-96 25.48 86.50 Value 2003-04 24.50 79.69 Value 2011-12 23.43 67.86 Past - Average Variation per year- % -0.12 -0.85 Forecast -Average Variation per year- % -0.13 -1.48
Particulars
TDL-% AELF-%
~"'"'_~_"',"
APEL11-12
~ ~~""~
~~~
__
;r"
~:._J,;,i.~.ii~:;~.c:.~ .::.,",-_~",. ..... ""=,,-,, ~ ~~~
_I
..
. IV1 vv . ..J: 14374

CAGR~% 8yr-ForecoSl
APEL03-04
IV1 vv . 7204-
CAGR-% 8yr-AclUal
5.81 APEL9S-96
9.02
f-------, f--
IV1VV. --.J4S84
('haplCr II Summary and Rcview
152
2.44.12 Chhattisgarh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 245, 217 & 227 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.96 % and AELF shall reduce from 73.15 % to 69.75% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12 . ----.-- -_.-.- .. ----- ------_._---
EEC 11-12
,,<
. .
GWh .. ...17092
EEC 03-04
IGWh 6988 IGWh 6737
CAGR, 'il: gyrAcrual

..
0.46
_.
..
CAGH.-% ~ 8yr-ForccaSl
i1.83-~
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12
GWh 21785
CAGR - k gyrAclual CAGR - % gyrForaasl
EER 03-04
IGWh 10055 GWh 7795
EER 95-96
Particulars
Value 1995-96 13.57 --87.15
Value 2003-04 30.50 73.15
Value 2011-12 21.54 69.75
Past- Average Variation per year- % 2.12 -1.75
Forecast-A verage Variation per year- % -1.12 -0.42
,
I
I ,
TDL-% AELF-%
APEL11-12
3565
CAG!? gyr-AclUal ,;,
Mvv.11
I
1
APEL03-04
CAGI{ - ',', gyr-hxccaSl
5.52
10.80
APEL9S-96
MVV, !"102"1
153
C!i:;r1tC[- IJ
Summary and R<,yi<'\\
Central Electricity Authority.
._~'il!' .
~'~~i
'.'
2.44.13 Madhya Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 227, 182 & 176 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 14.68 % and AELF shall improve from 64.62 % to 66.56% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
CAGR % CAGR - %
GW 3613
EEC 03-04
GWh 15908
B)T-Actual
Byr-Forecast
0.00
10.8
EEC 95-96
GWh 15905
EER 11-12
GWh 49338
EER 03-04
GWh 27171
CAGR
- %
CAGR - %
Byr-Actual
8yrForecast
3.73
7.74
EER 95-96
GWh 20264
Value 2002-03 21.51 71.53
Value 2003-04 41.45 64.62
Value 2011-12 26.77 66.56
Past - Average Variation Der vear- %
Forecast ~Average Va.i.ation Der vear- %
2.49 -0.86
-1.84 0.24
APEL
11 -1 2
MVV,
8462
APEL03-04
CAGR - % CAGR - %
Byr-Actu~l
Byr-Furecast
5.06 APEL95-96
7.}4
MVV,
3234
Chapter
" : Summary and Review
154
~~/central
17th Electric Power Swvey
2.44.14 Maharashtra: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 181, 160 & 185 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.72% and AELF shall reduce from 75.67 % to 65.34 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12
EEC 11-12 GWh EEC 03-04 GWh
93737
CAGR - % Ryr-Actual CAGR - % 8YT-Forecast
51824
GWh
1.61 7.69
EEC 95-96
45597
EER 11-12
CAGR -%
GWh
125661
CAGR - %
EER 03-04
GWh
8yr-Actual
3yr-Forecast
78667
GWh
4.62
6.03
lEER
95-96
54798
Value 1995-96 16.79 77.29
Value 2003-004 34.12 75.67
Value 2011-12 -25.40 65.34
Past - Average Variation ner vear- % 2.17 -0.20
Forecast- Average Variation ner vear- % -1.09 -1.29
APEL11-12
MW. 2195
CAGR-%
CAGR-%
APEL03-04
M\IV.
1 1868
8yr-Actual
8yr-Forecast
4.90
7.99
APEL95-96
MVV, 8094
155
Chapter
II : Summary and Rcview
2.44.15 D & N Haveli: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 2S0, 277 & 247 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by O.SS % and AELF shall improve from 66.0 I % to 74.00 % during 8 year forecast period upta 2011-12.
I
I
EEC 11-12
CAGR - % CAGR 'k
~~~
EEC 03-04
GWh 1547 GWh 278
8yr-ACluaJ
8yrl'orccast
23.93
13.72
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12
GWh
5042
GWh 1821
CAGR 8yr-AclUai
'f,
eMiR
EER 03-04
-% 8yr-Forl'CaSI
24~~ __~_
EER 95-96
GWh
307
Particnlars
___ M
TDL-% AELF-%
Value 1995-96 9.45

---
Value 2003-04 15.08 66.01
Value 2011-12 14.20 74.00
77.88
Past-Average VariatioflJler vear- % 0.70 ------1.48
Forecast - Average Variation Der vear- % __ -0.11

'M
1.00
1----, APEL11-12 77 APEL03-04

CAGR % 8yr-Actuul CA(iR - ~'r 8yr-Forecast
27.54 u_l~.~
APEL95-96
Chaplcr II : Sumnlal'}- and Re-yic\\
156
*1311I ,i?L:i~,~j.:,,/Central
2.44.16 Daman & Din: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 281, 272 & 291 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 2.72% and AELF shall reduce from 66.31 % to 62.13 % during 8 year forecast period upto 201 ] - ]2.
-~---l
I
EEC 11-12
GWh
I i i
2579
GWh 917 GWh
CAGR_CkCMiR._'J:
EEC 03-04
l)yr-'\CIU~l ..----
~yr-Fun'hl
.--------'
i
i
,
I
I,
!I
19.40
13.Htl
__ L_ ~
EEC 95-96
222
Ii
H~_I
Ii
I---------__-_~_EER 11-12
I
l============ =========~_I
JGWh 1104 GWh
C.\(jR IIY;>\(I[O,,)
('jr;;)5
Cu.:'>
lEER
03-04
_I
I
H;';--I'~;"LU";I
20.16
u. __
l..
I
J.'
13.34
'
,
I
EER 95-96
254
_.J
Past-Average Variation per year- % 0.54 0.23
Value 1995-96 12.60 64.43
Value 2003-04 16.88 66.31
Value 2011-]2 14.]6 62.13
1
-
Forecast-Aver~-g~-------i i Variation per year- (;{ -0.34

.. -----
-0.52
-I
APEL11-12
APEL03-04
LAPEL95-96
MVV, 45
157
J,_, _
Central ElectricityAuthority!~"
2.44.17 Andhra Pradesh: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 213,200 & 199 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 5.03 % and AELF shall improve from 68.60% to 69.04 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 72766

CAGR-% CAGR_%
EEC 03-04
GWh 34085 GWh 23694
8yrActlial 4.65
8yr-Foreust 9.94
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12 GWh 89032

CAGR-% CAGR-%
EER 03-04
GWh 44440
8yr-AclUal
8yr-rorecaSI 9.07
EER 95-96
GWh 29376
, 5.31
-Particulars TDL-% AELF-% Value 1995-96 19.34 78.42 Value 2003-04 23.30 68.60
I
Value 2011-12 18.27 69.04
Forecast Average Variation Past- Average Variation per year-% per year - % 0.49 -1.23 -0.63 0.05
!
i
APEL11-12
MVV, 14721
CAGR -%
8yr-Foreca~1
APEL03-04
8.99
APEL9S-96
IMVV, 4276
---------------~-~-----------------------(harter II : SUn1JiJaryand Rcv;;:w
158
."L....
~.,' Central Electricity Authority 17th Electric Power Survey
2.44.18 Karnataka: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 195, 171 & 161 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 10.6 % and AELF shall improve from 65.3% to 69.25 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 23143 GWh 16010

CAGR-% 8yr-Actual 4.71
EEC 03-04
GWh 45241
CAGR% 8yr-Forecast 8.74
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12 GWh EER 03-04 GWh 19125 GWh 31317

CAGR
53540
- %
8yr-Adual
CAGR-%
EER 95-96
6.J6
8,.,-F.""_""
6.93 ..
Value 1995-96 16.29 74.08
Value 2003-04 26.10 65.30
Value 2011-12 15.50 69.25
Past Average Variation per vear- % 1.23 -1.1
-:l
APEL
11-12
APEL
03-04
CAGR-%
CAGR-%
8yr-Actual
8yr-Forecast
8.05
Ii.IS
APEL
95-96
MVV, 2947
159
Ch:lptc[ II : Summary and Rcview
/;$',<'_'
i(:~s'ta~
?:Y-'
2.44.19 Kerala: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 180. 154 & 145 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shan decline by 12,25% and AELF shall improve from 58,81 % to 62,22% during 8 yearforecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
GWh 16345 GWh 9096

CAGR -
EEC 03-04
or
GWh 7340
8 -r-A~!'.'!L
CAGR q 8TForcca~1
2,72
17,60
--'-~
-----'
I I
EER 11-12
EER 03-04
GWh 12503
EER 95-96
J
-- ____ u
]GWh
9288
CAGR
8 h'"""l_
---_ rk
3.79 _
Value 1995-96 20,9 7 67,6 2
I Value 2003-04 I 2011-12 ~'-_~,~_...l 27.25 ! 15,00 58,81

________ ,_--J-.
Value
Past-Average Variation ner vear - %

0,78 -LlO
62,22
Forecast- Average Variation oervear- % -1.53 -- .. -0.43

-
APEL11-12
APEL 03-04
CAGR -
'*
CAGR - 'k
APEL 95-96
L
('har!~r IJ .
SUllllll'-lry
MVV, 1568
R r-Actual 5.61
8 r-Foreca~l 4.79
and Review
160
;1
!L~
~I
j'
l/
2.44.20 Tamil Nadu: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 188, 184 & 187 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.66% and AELF shall reduce from 71.14 % to 70.00% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 39308 GWh 25330 GWh 73703

CAGRO/[
8 r-Actual
EEC 03-04
CAGR-<;\
8'f-Forcrasl
5.65
8.17
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12
GWh 87222 GWh 47450 GWh 30145

CAGRq, _ r-Actual CAGR-q
8 r-Forecast
EER 03-04
5.H3
7.91
EER 95-96
r-=-~ -
Value 1995-96 15.97 76.05
---
~--
.-
-----
------~-
Valu~ 2003-04 17.16 71.14
2011-12 15.50 70.00
Past- Av~rage Variation I Forecast- Average Variation per vear- % oer vear - % 0.15 -0.21 -0.61 -0.14
APEL11-12
- - --,.,..- MVV, 4525 MVV, 7614
APEL 03-04
CAGR - '),.
~~Acttlal
CAGR-% liT-I:0r.,e..':!l>
6.72
8.12
APEL 95-96
161
Chapter
II ' Summary and Review
CentralElectricityAuthoritY""'~J?
I,
!;
2.44.21 Pondicherry: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 205, 218 & 211 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.35% from year 2004-05 to 2011-12 and AELF shall improve from 71.84 % to 73.92% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
EEC 03-04
GWh 1795
CAGR-% CAGR-%
8 r-Actual
8 r-Forecast
EEC 95-96
GWh
9.96
9.38
840
EER 11-12
GWh 4419 GWh 2030 GWh
EER 03-04
CAGR-%
CAGR-%
8 -Actual
8 r-Forecast
9.51
10.21
EER 95-96
982
Particulars
Value
Value
Value
Past-Average
Variation
TDL-% AELF-%
1995-96 14.46 68.77
2003-04 11.60 71.84
2011-12 16.80 73.92
Der vear - % -0.36 0.38
Forecast -Average Variation oer year - %
0.65 0.26
APEL11-12
APEL
03-04-
CAGR-%
CAGR-%
8 r-ActuaJ
8 -Forecast
8.91 APEL 95-96 IVIVV. 163
9.82
Chapter
II : Summary and Rcview
162
2.44.22 Bihar: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 401, 337& 45R % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12% and AELF shall reduce from 85.59 % to 63% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 3722 GWh 3671
GWh 14929
CAGR-% 8 '[-Actual CAGR-% 8 T"Forecast
EEC 03-04
0.17
18.96
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12
GWh 19905 GWh 5908

CAGR o/c 8 [Actual
EER 03-04
CAGR91
8 [-Forccast
2 99 .
16.40
EER 95-96
IGWh
4669
Value Value Value 1995-96 2003-04 2011-12 21.38 37.00 25.00 75.28 85.59 63.00
Past- Average Variation ocr vear- % 1.95 1.29
Forecast-Average Variation per year- % -1.50 -2.82
APEL11-12
CAGR%
CAGR%
8 r-Forcca~l
,APEL
03-04
8 [-Actual
1.35
20.94
APEL 95-96
J70a
163
Chapter
II : Summary and Review'
..
""7
I,..
;
2.44.23 Jharkhand : In the year 20Il-I2 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 241, 232 & 237 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 3,06 % and AELF shall reduce from 63.56% to 62.20% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
EEC 03-04
GWh 7618
CAGR-%
EEC 95-96
GWh 6756
8T-Actual 1.51
CAGR . % 8 -Forecast
11.63
EER 11-12
r~
GWh 7628 Value 1995-96 11.43 81.99 Value 2003 04 24.61 63.56 Value 2011-12 21.55 62.20
23408 GWh 10106
EER 03-04
EER 95-96
Past-Average Variation per year- % 1.65 -2.30
Forecast - Average Variation per year- % -0.38 -0.17
APEL11-12
APEL
03-04
MVV,
1815.12
CAGR-%
CAGR-%
8 r-Actual
8 r-Forecast
6.93
11.37
APEL
95-96
MVV.
1062
Chapter l[: Summary and Review
164
~~J'central
2.44.24 Orissa: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 284, 203 & 224 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 2],49 % and AELF shall reduce from 76.84 % to 69.50% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
GWh 20362
EEC 03-04
GWh 7157
CAGR-% R [_Actual
CAGR-% ~r-Forccast
0.10
13.96
EEC 95-96
GWh 7103
EER 11-12
GWh 27149
EER 03-04
GWh 13375
CAGR % S r-A~~uaJ CAGR - % 8 [Forecas!
EER 95-96
GWh 9648
4.17
9.25
~c
Particulars
Value 1995-96 26.38 68.20
Value 2003-04 46,49 76.84
Value 2011-12 25.00 69.50
------Past-Average Variation per ycar-%

...
-----
Forecast-Average Variation per year - % -2.69 -0.92
TDL-% AELF-%
25] L08
APEL
11-12
APEL
03-04CAGR . ')\, 8 [-Actual CAGR - % 8 r-Furecast
2.62
10.63
lAPEL
95-96
MVV. 1615
165
Chapter 11 . Summary and Review
17th Electric Power SUNey
Central Electricity AuthoritY4i;;:~.;/
2.44.25 West Bengal: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 183, 163 & 166 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 8.78 % and AELF shall reduce from 64.35 % to 63.22% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
CAGR - %
GWh
33626
EEC 03-04
GWh
18380
8 T-Actual
4.65
EEC 95-96
GWh
12777
EER 11-12
GWh GWh GWh
41020
EER 03-04
25109
EER 95-96
16492
Value Particulars TDL-% AELF-%

1995-96 22.53 68.53
Value
2003-04 26.80 64.35
Value
2011-12 18.02 63.22
Variation
Past-Average per year-%

0.53 -0.52
Forecast-Average Variation per year- %
-1.10 -0.14
APEL
11-12
APEL
03-04
MVV,
4454.4
APEL
95-96
MVV, 2747
166
(~/
Central Electricify Authorlfy
2.44.26 Sikkim: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 267.174 & 157 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 26.24 % and AELF shall improve from 39.63 % to 44.01 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
GWh
240
EEC 03-04
GWh
CAGR-%
90
EEC 95-96 GWh 81,26
8 -Actual
1.32
EER 11-12 GWh 184 GWh
GWh
320
EER 03-04
EER 95-96
Value 1995-96 16.49 31.64
Value 2003-04 51.13 39.63
Value 2011-12 24.89 44.01
Past- Average Variation per year- % 4.33 1.00
Forecast - Average
Variation per year- %

-3.24 0.49
APEL
11-12
APEL
03-04
CAGR-%
8 "[-Actual CAGR-%
8 r-Forecast
5.32
5.77
APEL
95-96
MVV,35
167
Chapter
II Summary and Revkw
0'7~iv/
!I~;/
/1
2.44.27 Arunachal Pradesh: In the year 20Il-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 263,221 & 232 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 12 % and AELF shall reduce from 39.97 % to 37.94% during 8 yearforecast period uplo 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
GWh 287
EEC 03-04
GWh 109.42
EEC 95-96
GWh 75.57
EER 11-12
GWh
386
EER 03-04
EER 95-96
GWh 104
Value 1995-96 26.92 27.61
Value 2003-04 37.50 39.97
Value 201I-I2 25.50 37.94
Past- Average Variation per year - % 1.32 1.55
Forecast Average Variation Der vear- % -1.50 -0.25
APEL11-12
MVV,
1 1
APEL
03-04-
APEL
95-96
MvV,
4-3
168
,df!:-ii~i
r
/.~_
.'
2.44.28 Assam: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 318. 240 & 218 % respectively Of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 19.81 % and AELF shall improve from 54.56 % to 60 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
GWh 6106
EEC 03-04
EEC 95-96
GWh 1768
EER 11-12 GWh
7585
EER 03-04 GWh 3164
CAG''" ~
8 r-For~~_~ 11.55
EER 95-96
GWh
2509
Value 1995-96 29.53 60.68
Value 2003-04 39.31 54.56
Value 2011-12 19.50 60.00
Past-Average Variation oer vear- % 1.22 -0.76
Forecast Average Variation ocr vear~ % -2.48 0.68
APEL11-12
MVV, 1443
APEL
03-04
APEL
95-96
169
Chapter
/.1
17th Electric Power Survey Central leclricity E AUlhority"~t'
2.44.29 Manipur: In the year 2011-12 the EEC. EER & APEL are estimated to become 345. 185 & 168 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 30.18 % and AELF shall improve from 47.52 % to 52.40% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
GWh 605.73
EEC 03-04
GWh 175.38
EEC 95-96
GWh 170
EER 11-12 GWh 932

CAGR-% 8 T-Actual CAGR - % 8 r-Forecast 7.99
EER 03-04
GWh 503.68
5.88
EER 95-96
GWh 319
Particulars TDL-%
--=:-.:
Value 1995-96 46.71 52.02
Value 2003-04 65.18 47.52
Value 2011-12 35.00 52.40
Past-Average Variation per year- % 2.31 -0.56
Forecast -Average
Variation per year- % -3.77 0.61
AELF%
APEL
11 -12
APEL
03-04
CAGR-% CAGR-%
8 r-AClUal
8 -Forecas
7.08 APEL 95-96
6.68
i MVV,
70
Chapter
II: Summary and Rcview
i70
/1
,
[,.,
/11;1301., ~_._~-.~// Central Electricity Authority ;
2.44.30 Meghalaya: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 224, 219 & 235 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04, TDL shall decline by 1,89% and AELF shall reduce from 60% to 56% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12,
EEC 11-12
GWh 1786 GWh 797.02
EEC 03-04
EEC 95-96
GWh 351
EER 11-12
GWh 2101
CAGR-% CAGR-9(
EER 03-04
GWh 959
8 'r-Actual
l! r-Forcca~l
12.16
10.30
EER 95-96
GWh 383
Value 1995-96 8.36 50.25
Value 2003-04 16.89 60.00
Value 2011-12 15.00 56,00
Past-Average Variation oer year ~ % 1.07 1.22
Forecast-Average Variation oer vear- % -0.23 -0.50
APEL
11-12
APEL
03-04
MVV, 182.46
CAGR-%
CAGR-%
J1.r-Actua!---+~Forecasl_ 9.70 11.26
APEL
95-96
MVV,
87
171
ChapiLr 1l : Summary and Review
Central Electricity Authority ~_
2.44.31 Mizoram: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 237, 144 & 163 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 29.93 % and AELF shall reduce from 44.38 % to 39.47% during 8 year forecast period upto 201 1-12.
EEC 11-12
GWh 307.4 GWh 129.9 GWh 102
EEC 03-04
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12
GWh 398 GWh 275.97 GWh 136 Value 1995-96 25.00 33.03 Value 2003-04 52.93 44.38 Value 2011-12 23.00 39.47 Past -Average Variation per year - % 3.49 1.42 Forecast -Average Variation per year- % -3.74 -0.61
EER 03-04
EER 95-96
Particulars
___ n ___
TDL-% AELF- %
MVV, 115.46
MVV,
APEL
03-04
70.99
CAGR - % 8 r-Fore<.:a,(
. 24
lAPEL
95-96
I MVV,
47
Chapter
n : Summary
anJ Rcview
172
.tih.
tv
Ii
2.44.32 Nagaland: In the year 2011 - 12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 278, 210 & 162 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 19.02% and AELF shall improve from 40.32 % to 52.42% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12 GWh 544.39

CAGR-% 8 'T-Actual 7.60 CAGR% 8 T-Foreca:;t 13.64
EEC 03-04
GWh 196
EEC 95-96
GWh 108.75
EER 11-12
GWh 698
EER 03-04
. IGWh 332
CAGRo/(. CAGR-% H r-Foreo:a>t
EER 95-96
GWh 141
8vr-Aclllal
11.30
9.73
Value 1995-96 22.70 44.71
Value 2003-04 41.03 40.32
Value 2011-12 22.01 52.42
Past- Average Variation per year- % 2.29 ~O.55
I Forecast-
Average Variation per year- % -2.38 1.51
APEL11-12
MVV.
15
APEL
03-04CAGR-% 1'\'[-Actual CAGR-%
12.75
8 (-Forecast 6.19
APEL
95-96
IVIVV.36
173
Chapter
II : Summary and Rcvic\\
Central Electricity AuthoritY,,4--'~
~1,7
fi/
2.44.33 Tripura: 171% respectively
In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 227,183 & of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 14.67 % and
AELF shall improve from 46.35 % to 49.75% during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EECll-12
EEC 03-04
GWh 414.26
EEC 95-96
GWh 223.66
EER 11-12
GWh 1229
EER 03-04
GWh 670
lEER
95-96
GWh 317
Value 1995-96 29.34 67.01
Value 2003-04 38.17 46.35
Value 2011-12 23.50 49.75
Past- Average Variation per vear- % 1.l0 -2.58
Forecast -Average Variation per vear - % -1.83 0.43
APEL
11 -1 2
APEL
03-04CAGR-% 8 r-Actual CAGR-% 8 r-Forecast
14.98 APEL 95-96 MVV, 54-
6.93
174
/1il'~.,iCentral Electricity Authority

W
/' ~i /t'i~_i;n
/"1
2.44.34 A & N Islands: In the year 2011-12 the EEC, EER & APEL are estimated to become 246, 225 & 225 % respectively of the corresponding values iu 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 6.95 % and AELF shall be al same level i.e. 5 I % during 8 year forecasl period upto 20 I I - I 2.
EEC 11-12 Gwh 278.31
EEC 03-04
GWh 113.21 GWh 65.7
EEC 95-96
EER 11-12
GWh 343.59 GWh 152.88
EER 03-04
EER 95-96
IGWh 81
Partic:.llars TDL-% AELF-%
Value 199596 18.52 51.37
I Value
2003-04 25.95 51.00
Value 2011-l2 19.00 51.00
PastAverage Variation per year- % 0.93 -0.05
Forecast~ Average Variation per year - % -0.87 0.0
APEL
11-12
MVV, 76_91
CAGR-% CAGR-%
APEL
03-04
8 f"Actual
8 rForecast
8.36
10.65
lAPEL
95-96
!MVV.18
175
Chapter
II : Summary and Reviev.
"~'i?
/:'
;/
2.44.35 Lakshadweep: In the year 201 1-12 the EEC, EER & APEL arc estimated to become 189, 182 & 183 % respectively of the corresponding values in 2003-04. TDL shall decline by 1.86% and AELF shall improve from 38.49 % to 40.01 % during 8 year forecast period upto 2011-12.
EEC 11-12
Gwh 36
EEC 03-04 GWh 19 GWh 13
CAGR-% CAGR-%
8 T-Actual
8 r-Fo[ccas\
EEC 95-96
4.83
8.39
EER 11-12
GWh 40 GWh 22 GWh 15
EER 03-04
CAGR - %
CAGR
8 r-Actual 4.61
8 T-Foreca~t 8.11
EER 95-96
Particulars
Value 1995-96 13.33 42.81
Value 2003-04 11.85 38.49
Value 2011-12 9.99 40.01
Forecast Average Variation per year- %

w
TDL-% AELF-% --
-0.23 0.19
APEL
11-12
MVV.
11
APEL
03-04
CAGR-o/c
CAGR-% f!
8 [-Actual
r-Forecast
6.01 MVV.4
7.58
APEL
95-96
Chapter
176
Chart 2.45
Comparison of Eight Year CAGRs of Actuals and Forecast of Energy Requirement
1998 - 2003 - 04
2004
- 2011 - 12
16 Nos.
15 Nos.
Punjab Lakshadweep
Manlpur
West Bengal Orissa
4.61 5.88 5.39 4.17

5.B3
"'<yaM
Delhi Rajasthan Uttaranchal Uttar Pradesh
8.93 8.65
7.63
12 Nos.
7.93
9.1
TamU Nadu 8 Nos. Assam Jharkhand Bihar Kerala

Madhya Pradesh AndhniPradesh Maha~ra
2.94 3.58 2.99 3.79

3.73
Gujaral Ultaranchal Rajasthan
Punjab
Delhi Haryanll Kamataka
Chhanisgam Chandigam UttarPradesh
3.23 3.73 3.54
5.31 4.62 4.74 4.67 4.52 5.44 5.49 6.04

6.36
8 Nos.
7 Nos.
Andamlln & Nicobar 8.26 TMpura Mizoram Sikkim
Chandigarh Andhrapradesh Jammu & Kashmir 6.48 TamfiNadu Orissa Sikkim
8.4 9.8 9.07

7.91
MadhYlilPradesh7.7
9.81 9.25 8.33

&
4 Nos.
Nagaland;
Gujarat Maharashra
6.85 6.03
6.93 5.53
6.33 4.70
Pondicherry
Jammu Kashmir
9.51 9.38
7.03 7.76
Megh~;i);.
11.30 ,12,~_6
Kamataka
Kera!a West Bangal Mlzoram
TMpura
Manfpur Lakshadweep Nagaland
9.25 7.16 7.88 7.99

8.11
9.73
ArunachalPradeshB.73
Goo
HTmachalPradesh
Damart&\D1U'~.16
o'adiil-&N'kiV$H24~93
<4
=,>4&<7
= or >7&<10
= or >10
ACTUAL GROWTH
Chart 2.46
Com arlson 01 Ei hl Year CAGRs of Actuals and Forecast of Peak Load
1998 - 2003 - 04
laNos.
2004
- 2011 - 12
Lakshadweep West Bengal TamliNadu Jharkhand
6.01 6.23 6.72 6.93 14 Nos.

Madhya Pradesh Uk$1\8dweep 7.34
Goo Chandlgam
Assam Mizoram Slkklm Punjab Rajasthan Uttaranchal Gujeral 1.35 Chhattisgarh
MadhyaPradesh
6.47 4.62
4.32 5.29 5.32 4.88 5.25 4.92 5.81 5.52
5.06
12 Nos.
7.58
7.99 8.01 8.12 8.75 8.97
8.99
9 Nos. 7 Nos. Manpur 7.08 Andhra Pradesh 7.09 Haryana 7.82

Kamataka 8.05
Kerala Sikkim
5 Nos.
4.79
5.n
Maharashtra Deihl TamliNadu Punjab Chandlgarh

Andhra Pradesh
5 fJ05. Bihar Orissa

Himachal Prad8S~ Uttar Pracl8~h
Arunachal Pradesh 1.90
Kamataka 8.15 Nagaland 6.19 Mlzoram 8.24 Jammu&kash .6.27
Gujarat Rajasthan
Uttaranchal Haryana Pondlcheny
9.02 9.36
9.59 9.63 9.82
2.62
3.57 3.66
Maharashtra 4.9 Kerala 5.61 Oalh: 6.58
Pondicherry 8.91 MeghalaYll 9.70 And.& Nicrobar 8.36
West Bengal 6.56

Manlpur Trlpura 6.68 6.93
Goo
9.98
<4
",>4&<7
= or >7&<10
= or >10
ACTUAL GROWTH
/' ~ / . ~'-- ~ Central Electricity Authority /-----~,;-i;qr
.~",
2.47 REVIEW OF FORECAST
FOR RURAL
The consumption of electrical energy in rural areas in the year 2011-2012 is estimated to become 2.05 times the consumption in year 2003-2004 thus estimated to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 9.42% on All India basis. The consumption in domestic (rural) category shall become 2.51 times at a CAGR of 12.21%, commercial (rural) 2.36 times at a CAGR of 11.31%, inigation 1.75 times at a CAGR of 7.28% while other categories (industrial, public lighting, public water works, etc.) 2.1 9 times at a CAGR of 10.32%.
lBoooO
140000 12oo 10oo
ALL INDIA RURAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Boooo
60000 40000 20000
o
AU INDIA-COM ~,.ALL INDIA-COM t' AU INDIA.QTHERS All INDIA-IRRIG
2OO3-<l4
6379 35703
=
2O.H2
15035 89742 120364 151999
jI
....,
54856
ALL INDIA URBAN & RURAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

400000 350000 300000 250000 20oo 150000 10oo 5oo
2003-04
2004-05 195220 192955
2005-06 211784 210470
2006-07 232739 231n1
2007-08 255899 255000
2008-09 281053 281035
2009-, 0 310257 309994
2010-11 341924 342400
2011-12
377141
ALL INDIARURAL 183560 ALL INDIAURBAN 179239
378708
179
Chapter
II: Summ'-Il}' and Review

17th EPS1

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GOVERNMENT

REPORT ON SEVENTEENTH ELECTRIC POWER SURVEY OF INDIA

"!IT. cfi" "Illl~

Central Electricity Authority

C H /%. !1<.1l-Ili: t,' >,;~-'~ \,

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority"

New Delhi Dated the 30th March, 2007

17th Electric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority & Ex officio Addition~i1 Secretary, Gov!. of Jndi"

; nh tiectric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

New Delhi 30th March, 2007

Centra! Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power SUlvey

17th Electric Power SUNey

Central Electricity Authority

Correspondence & coordination.

Stenographic and Secretarial Assistance.

Other official support.

Deputy Director Assistant Director - I Assistant Director - II Assistaut Director-II

Collection & validation of basic data of the constituents of Northern Region

Cl'i,Wvey Office, Mumbai

Sh. Sh. Sh. Sh. Sh.

T.Rajender Reddy, C. Venkata Subbaiah A.Bose, Thomas K. Chako A Kesavan

Collection & validation of basic data of the constituents of Southern Region

Regional Power Survey Office, Kolkata

New Delhi Dated the 30lh March, 2007

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

Note: Read 'UTTARAKHAND'

Central Electricity Authority

I71!1 Electric Power Survey

DESCRIPTION Foreword Pr'Pjilce

(//1(r;\--;-:;vnV/~l~--~------------- - ----- - - -ff---_

1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Aims & Ohjectives Definitions Methodology Assumptions

Electrical Energy Requirement

17th Efectric Power Survey

Central Electricity Authority

Chart Chart Charts Charts 2.43.5 Charts Charts 2.44.35

2.42 2.42.] 2.43 2.43.1 to 2.44 2.44.] to

Chart 2.47 CHAPTER-III

136 136 137 137 142 142

177 178 179

183 ]84 185 J86 187 188 189 190--

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

CHAPTER Table 3.<)

T:lWe3.10 Table 3.11 Table 3.]2 Table 3.13

r-------~ Table 3.16

17th Electric Power SUivey

Central Electricity Authorjty

4.1 Table 4...! Table 4.3

Jammu & Kashmir: (Utilities)

Summary of category wise forecast

218 219 220 22] 222 223 224 225

: Summary of category wise forecast (Utilities) : Summary of category wise forecast

Madhya Pradesh (Utilities)

Table 4.14 Table 4.15

Central Electricity Authority

17th Electric Power Survey

~~E~VI_~ ~:'lt::~E=kctr:i~)-I)l ~_j