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Note: Figure only includes the 20 countries with the most installed wind capacity at the end of 2008
Wind Is a Major Source of New Generation Capacity Additions: Wind Contributed 42% of New Additions in the US in 2008
70 60 Annual Capacity Additions (GW) 50 40 0% wind 30 20 18% wind 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2% wind 12% wind 35% wind 42% wind 4% wind 1% wind 3% wind
Other non-renewable Coal Gas (non-CCGT) Gas (CCGT) Other renewable Wind
Wind was the 2nd-largest resource added for the 4th-straight year
200
150
100
50
MISO (64 GW), ERCOT (52 GW), SPP (48), and PJM (43 GW) account for >70% of total wind in queues Not all of this capacity will be built.
Wyoming 7,870
Nevada 3,913
Total 311,155 MW
Source: AWEA
Wind Has Been Competitive with Wholesale Power Prices in Recent Years
90 80 70 60 2008 $/MWh 50 40 30 20 10 0 2003 49 projects 2,268 MW 2004 62 projects 3,069 MW 2005 80 projects 4,083 MW 2006 98 projects 5,165 MW 2007 117 projects 7,654 MW 2008 145 projects 9,873 MW Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (for a flat block of power) Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles) Wind project sample includes projects built from 1998-2008
Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes Wind power prices include sample of projects built from 1998-2008
Even Among More-Recent Projects, Wind Was Competitive in Most Regions in 2008
90 80 70 2008 $/MWh 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Texas 2 projects 241 MW Heartland 28 projects 2,133 MW Mountain 10 projects 1,115 MW Northwest 5 projects 831 MW Great Lakes 6 projects 713 MW California 3 projects 233 MW East 4 projects 170 MW New England 2 projects 29 MW Total US 60 projects 5,465 MW Average 2008 Wholesale Power Price Range (by region) 2008 Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (by region) Individual Project 2008 Wind Power Price (by region) Wind project sample includes projects built from 2006-2008
Note: Within a region there are a range of wholesale power prices because multiple wholesale price hubs exist in each area (see earlier map)
Source: LBL
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
IA: 105 MW
PA: 18% by 2020 NJ: 22.5% by 2021 MD: 20% by 2022 DE: 20% by 2019* DC: 20% by 2020
29 states & DC
have an RPS
5 states have goals
State renewable portfolio standard State renewable portfolio goal Solar water heating eligible
Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables Includes separate tier of non-renewable alternative resources
Source: NOAA
Source: NOAA
The sponsoring utilities hold an option to buy the project back after 10 years
Owned by Invenergy Online 2005 64.5 MW (43) GE 1.5 MW turbines Tax revenue from project ~ $900,000 annually ~ 200 workers during construction 4 O&M positions
In the end, Jerome Middle School paid ~ $3,720 for the turbine tower & various permits.
Financial markets Policy Uncertainty Supply chain/workforce Siting and Permitting: avian, noise, visual, federal land * Transmission: FERC rules, tariffs, new lines, PMAs
Operational impacts: variability, ancillary services, forecasting, cost allocation Accounting for non-monetary value: green power, no fuel price risk, reduced emissions and water use
Onshore
Class 7 Class 6 Class 5 Class 4 Class 3
Offshore
Class 7 Class 6 Class 5 Class 4 Class 3
200
800
1,000
Jobs and Economic Impacts from the JEDI Model 20% Wind Power in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington (20,681 MW)
JEDI Model Version W1.09.03e
Totals
(construction + 20 yrs)
= $26.8 Billion
New local jobs during construction:
Operational Phase: 2,963 local jobs = 103,430 $481 Million/year to local economies New local long-term jobs:
= 3,928
4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2006 No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissions USCAP path to 80% below todays levels by 2050
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
Reduces water consumption of 4 trillion gallons through 2030 (represents a reduction in electric sector water consumption by 17% in 2030)
U.S. Remains on Early Track To Meet 20% of Nations Electricity with Wind by 2030
18 16 annual projections (EER) Cumulative Capacity (GW) 14 Annual Capacity (GW) 12 10 8 6 4 2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 Deployment Path in 20% Wind Report (annual) Actual Wind Installations (annual) Deployment Path in 20% Wind Report (cumulative) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 245 210 175 140 105 70 35 0 315 280
But ramping up to ~16 GW/year and maintaining that pace for a decade is an enormous challenge, requiring proactive policy, substantial transmission expansion, mitigation of output variability, and eased siting and permitting processes
Carpe Ventem
www.windpoweringamerica.gov