From:Morten HaugEmilsen 2010 Sent:MonAug09 17:51:48 Dave To:'Wall, Investigation Subject RE:BP Incident lmportance: Normal PressureBumps.

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Davg The are I'm in Houston arehappyto seethat our main conclusions unchanged. flow parhis throughthe shoe, and quite gainof39 bbt between 20:50and 2l:08 matches at the rvell got underbalanced 20:50.In additiorLthereported (this information not available timeI washere). last well with thc simulations was was We had a hard time explainingthe pressure bumpsafler 2l :30,andour initial assumption thel rig crewtried to closethe annular.Al the same time we hada hardtime explaininglrcrvtheycouldstrugglewilh a leakingannularin morese&ie ne'arly minutcsbeforerheywentually closedtheVBR. This haschanged, I can agree it makes and as 20 seenfrom the guysat the rig lloo. by conditionsin However, am not convinced I build-up(21:30-2l:35) is caused hydrodynamic that thefirst pressure (moreheav.v ppgmudbeingpushed thebacksideof thedrillpipereplacing 8.6/ l4 ppgmud) the l4 on thewellbore pressurc while thc second build-up(21:,42 2 | :4?)is causcd a partly sealingannular. by (If The curvesaretoo similar too be causod two differentmechanisms. theyare,it is inuedible!). ln detail, the by prcssurc build-upscontaintwo gradicnts, lattcr slightly stccpar thc thanths first onc,bcforcthcy arc flartcningout. Enclosed a coupleof slidesshowinghow similrr theyare. is This detail at th very endwill not change mainconclusions. Anyway,I amhereto reviewtbe new simulalions the Iny respect anrlookingfor nrore I infornration be convinced lhis is to that andupdate roportaccordingly, in that. and thc casc. The changes madem my originat modelis that theymovedtherestrictionfrom theBOPto surface. In addition, Ok. theyreduced netpay from 15to 13 ft to holdbackthe gas.Ok. The gasreached the zurface little bit too early in the a while pumpingat a steady right beforetheyshutdownthe pump al rate original work. The presswe declineseen 2l:30 cannot, the rrcwsirnulations, reproduced for Initially this declinc be withoutplaying with a rcstriction surfacc. at wasreproduced gasrcachingthe baclsidcofthe DP andhence by cause lighter columnon the backsidc. a Accordingto the newsimulations. first gasreaches that the surface 2l:47 (no GasBusteror vent line is modeled at will cause additionaldelayin gassurfacing), is little bit too lateaccording gasalarmandwitnessstatements this to regardingnoise.Also, the gain from the new simulations 28 shows bbl at 21r08,a little bit on the low side. I readthe Chapterin the reportdealingwith the CFDmodelingandtried to get a feelingfor the timing requiredftom slart of thc rclcascto lhc mostlikcly mndition for ignition andcxplosion, that is gct insidc thc LEL - UEL cnvclopc. Plotswerepresented for 190and 240 seconds. My both fusumethe time is relatedto lirst gasat surface. interprelalionis that it couldbe 3-4 minutesof flow beforethe first explosion mostlikely at 2l:49. occurred, As youhavesen, rnodeling rcsults vcrysensitivc theamount location in thc arc ofthe hydrocarbons the to and wellbore,and srnallerchanges chokingeffects well productMtywill affectthe results.Further,we will wrt. and probablynot gct anyclosu by modclingthc rcal incidcntwhcrcvariationsin inflow ducto ccmcntchanncls, pop-off skin effects,wiper plug movements couldhaveinfluenced flow, My rnainconcernis though,that we arenow etc. the explaining similarpressure two build-ups with twodifferent mechanisms, I havea hardtimsupporting that and conclusion. I hcardthat you areon yo{r way overhere,andwemight havetime for a charbeforeI travelbac.k homeon Thursday. jnst This wasjust to give you my comment the new information received. on Any feedback be appreciated. wilt

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Thanks, Bestregards, Morten

--{riginal Message-From: Wall, DaveI mailto:dave.wall@bp.com] Senr6.juli 2Ol0l5:31 To: Morten HaugEmilsen Subjec[RE: BP IncidentInvestigation Morten, Ycp I am back in Houstou.I havebcencatchingup todayandhavcbccnbricfcd on Fridayscall, you'll bepleascd to know that the sensitivities work is just validatingthe goodwork you did. Theyaregoingto do a little moredetailed modellingof the annulars thebasicbuilding blocksare soundandoverthe weekend but theyhavebasically validatedthe work you havedone. I'll work with this teamto do the detailedwork. Thanksfor all your help and havea fantasticholiday. Dave DavidWall VPHSE&IM EPT- HSE,Operalions &Engineering 077481 80428 ---Original Messagc--From: Morten HaugEmilsenI mailto:Morten.Haug.Emilsenr@ddenerry.no] Sent: July201013;08 06 To: Wall, Dave Subject: BP IncidentInvestigation Re: Davc,goodto hcar from you. fuc you backin Houston? I'm currently Cannes did not bring my computer in and with mebut do not think thc 14* Diverter will create any significantbac&prssure the syslem. on Havehad a conference with Kent Corserandthe BOPteamregardingsomeissues a guy from SPTgrouphas call and beenhired lo run somesensitivities. Scntfrom my iPad On 6. juli 2010,at 17.33, "Wall Dal'e"<dave.walt@bp,com> wrote: > Morten. ], *oo, your on your holidaysbut I havebenasked do a little more !o > work on the Well lnflow modclling.We would likc ro provetlut by > diverting to the 14' Starboard Divcrtcr line that the release of

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> hydrocarbns would havebeento a safelocationandtherefore the > explosionand fire would not haveoccurre4or ifthe gasdid ignite > it would be in a safelocation.Thekey issueto checkis, whatwould > lhe backpressrre havebeengoingthrough this I 4" line. If wecan > provc the pressure failure point thcnwe didn't excecd equipment any > can assert ofthe gaswould havesafelyventedto a safelocation. all > Couldyou please me know if yor couldrun the modelanddo a let > pressure for us from 2l:30 1o22:00brs assuming teamclosed plot lhe > thediverterandopened thestarboard line to diverter at 2l:30 hrs. > All otherparameters suchaspaflially closingannularsandsealing > VBRs shouldremainunchanged. > If you couldcall to discuss wouldbe great,my UK mobilenunrber that > is shown below. > Thanks > Dave > DavidWall >VPHSE&IM > EPT - HSE,Operations Engineering & > 07748180428

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