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FII s Influence On Sensex Over The Period 2000-2010

CHAPTER-I INTRODUCTION

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1.1 INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY


FIIs influence on the Sensex over the period 2000-2010 - is a study of the influence of FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTERS whose activities play a vital role in the ups and downs of the share market. The study is conducted on the Indian stock exchange market ( BSE SENSEX) . There are conflicting theories on the issue of whether FII flows affect or are affected by domestic stock market returns. So, the present empirical study has been undertaken to throw some light on the direction of causality between FII flows and Indian stock market returns using data on both the variables from over the period 2000- 2010. International portfolio flows, as are commonly known as Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) flows, refer to capital flows made by individual and institutional investors across national borders with a view to creating an internationally diversified portfolio. Unlike Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows which refer to that category of international investment aimed at obtaining a lasting interest by a resident entity in one economy in an enterprise resident in another economy by way of exercising significant control over its management, FII flows are not directed at acquiring management control over foreign companies. FII flows were almost non-existent until 1980s. With more and more emerging market economies (EMEs), deregulating their financial markets by eliminating foreign exchange controls, reducing taxes imposed on foreign investors, relaxing the restrictions on the purchase / sale of securities by foreign investors in domestic markets etc. they are increasing in number. Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) flows, i.e., capital flows across national borders, to emerging market economies (EMEs) have risen sharply over the past one and half decade due to globalization and India is no exception in this regard. However, there is a lot of apprehension regarding the volatile nature of such flows thereby raising questions about the need to encourage FII flows in a narrow and shallow stock market like that of India.

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1.2 Objectives of the Study


 To know the Indian stock exchange market- BSE, NSE  To study the performance of Sensex over the period 2000-10  To know about FII  To study the effect of FIIs investment in BSE Sensex  To study the relationship between FII activity and Sensex  To find the trend in FIIs investment

1.3 Scope of the Study


 To get in touch with the industrial and organizational environment.  To familiarize with the trends in the stock market(BSE) over the years  To familiarize with the importance of FII in Indian stock market

1.4 Methodology of the Study


The methodology of the study is through collecting the primary and secondary data. Primary data refers to the data collected by the investigator directly through primary sources. It includes;  Direct observation.  Interview (personal). Secondary data refers to the data collected from;  Books  Journals  Websites

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 Company manuals etc.

1.5 Limitation of the study


 Time  Analysis is conducted only on the basis of some factors therefore cent percent accuracy is not possible.  Lack of reliability of Secondary data

1.6 Chapterisation
Chapter 1 : Deals with Introduction. It includes objectives of the Study, Scope of the study, Methodology, Limitations and Chapterisation. Chapter 2 : Industry Profile - Stock Market. Chapter 3 : Company Profile - HEDGE EQUITIES. Chapter 4 : Theoretical Framework Indian stock market & Foreign Institutional investors Chapter 5 : Analysis and Interpretation  Analysis of the performance of BSE over the years  Analysis of the FII inflow to Indian stock exchange  Analysis of the Sensex gain due to FIIs investment  Analysis of Sensex return due to the increase in number of FII registration  Analysis of the correlation between Sensex returns and FII snet investment  Analysis of the trend in FII s investment Chapter 6 : Findings, Conclusion and Suggestions.
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FII s Influence On Sensex Over The Period 2000-2010

CHAPTER- II INDUSTRY PROFILE

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2.1 BROKERAGE INDUSTRY


The Indian retail brokerage industry consists of companies that primarily act as agents for the buying and selling of securities (e.g. stocks, shares, and similar financial instruments) on a commission or transaction fee basis. It has two main interdependent segments: Primary market and the Secondary market. Now this market is extended to fields like currency, commodity, mutual fund, insurance etc... The Indian equity brokerage industry thrived on the back of equity markets' sustained bull run during 2003-07. Although high competitive pressure meant continuous compression of brokerage commissions and low electronic penetration kept operating costs high, industry revenue was growing. Furthermore, the industry attracted domestic and foreign investment interest at high valuations of upto 45x P/E multiples. During this time, many of the key players started expanding their portfolio of services to include wealth management and advisory services, sale of insurance and mutual fund products, consumer financing and so on. However, post-2008, the economic downturn - muted trading turnover, relentless competitive pressure and decreasing margins, continued high operating costs and high margining requirements - has put the industry under pressure. Profitability is muted and the major players are under pressure to build scale. Expansion of scale and investments into technological systems has the potential to lead the top brokerage firms into paths of higher growth, but the current economic climate is clearly against heavy investments. The basic function of a brokerage firm is to execute buy and sell orders for clients. Traditionally these firms have offered the investigation of the quality and the possibilities of investing in a variety of investment products. It is still accustomed for brokerage firms to offer information about possible investments free of charge. This activity of bringing free of charge stock investment reports is one of the main tools that are utilized by brokerage houses to compete against other firms and to investors it continues to be an important service

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The History of Stock Brokerage Firms


Stock brokerage firms have been an established feature in the financial industry for nearly one thousand years. Dealing in debt securities, brokers employ a variety of systems to aid investors with the purchase and sales of stocks and bonds in a variety of markets. The firms have changed over the years, growing to massive organizations that can affect the entire financial sector positively or negatively with their performance. Changing with the times, the early twenty-first century saw a rise of online trading that enabled the average investor to take part in the stock market for the first time. 1. History During the 11th century, the French began regulating and trading agricultural debts on behalf of the banking community, creating the first brokerage system. In the 1300s, houses began to be set up in major cities like Flanders and Amsterdam in which commodity traders would hold meetings. Soon, Venetian brokers began to trade in government securities, expanding the importance of the firms. In 1602, the Dutch East India Company became the first publicly traded company in which shareholders could own a portion of the business. The stocks improved the size of companies and became the standard bearer for the modern financial system. 2. Significance The earliest brokerage firms were established in London coffee houses, enabling individuals to purchase stocks from a variety of organizations. They formally founded the London Stock Exchange in 1801 and created regulations and memberships. The system was copied by brokerage firms across the world, most notably on Chestnut Street in Philadelphia. Soon, the US exchange was moved to New York City and various firms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch were created to assist in the brokering of stocks and securities. The firms limited themselves to researching and trading stocks for investment groups and individuals.

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3. Considerations During the 1900s, stock brokerage firms began to move in a direction of market makers. They adopted the policy of quoting both the buying and selling price of a security. This allows a firm to make a profit from establishing the immediate sale and purchase price to an investor. The conflict with brokerage firms setting prices creates the concern that insider trading can result from the sharing of information. Regulators have enforced a system called Chinese Walls to prevent communication between different departments within the brokerage company. This has resulted in increased profits and greater interconnection within the financial industry. 4. Effects The creation of high valued brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs and Bear Sterns created a system of consolidation. Working with hundreds of billions of dollars, the larger firms began to merge and take over smaller firms in the last half of the 20th century. Firms like Smith Barney were acquired by Citigroup and other investment banks, creating massive financial institutions that valued, held, sold, insured and invested in securities. This conglomeration of the financial sector created an environment of volatility that caused a chain reaction when other firms like Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Trillions of dollars of assets were tied together in different companies and resulted in a large economic collapse in late 2008. 5. Features A large share of the brokerage firms have moved to an online format. Smaller brokers such as E*Trade, TD Ameritrade and Charles Schwab have taken control of most individual investors accounts. The added convenience and personal attention paid to the small investor has resulted in a large influx of activity. In addition, the fact that the online resources offer up-to-the-minute pricing and immediate trades makes their format appealing to the modern user. Discounted commissions have lessened the price of trades, giving access to a wider swath of people and adding liquidity to the
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market. The role of the stock brokerage firm is ever-changing and proves to be a boon for the future of the financial industry.

Full service v/s Discount brokerage houses


Full service brokerage firms continue to offer informative stock reports and a level of service much higher than other brokerage houses. Discount brokerage houses only dedicate themselves to execute orders for clients. Full service brokers are sellers looking for purchasing and selling for clients and offering more customer service than is available from discount brokers. It is many times possible that a client will not even know who is taking care of the buy or sell order that they placed.

MARKET SIZE AND CHARACTERISTICS: The Indian retail brokerage market is showing phenomenal growth. The total trading volume of brokerage companies has increased from US$1239.1 billion in 2004 to US$1492.1 billion in 2005, and is expected to reach US$6535.7 billion by 2015. Some of the main characteristics of the brokerage industry include growth in ebroking; growing derivatives market, decline in brokerage fees etc. Today, as per NSDL statistics, we have only 2.4 million investors with demat accounts in the country. Considering various investor combinations that are holding accounts, we can presume the country has roughly 5-7.5 lakh active investors now. This figure is unbelievably small compared to the potential number of investors, which is anything between 200 million and 250 million. When we take into consideration the way transaction risk and cost in the Indian capital market is coming down, there will be a massive surge in the number of investors and also in volumes. The only way to manage this kind of potential growth is to adopt state-of-the-art trading techniques. The growth of Internet-based trading as a mass trading technique in the country is unstoppable, going by the indicators available and the signals for the future.

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When it ultimately gathers momentum, the biggest beneficiary will be the investor, who will be able to trade with greater speed and transparency, and at lower costs...

Major players in Indian share broking industry are follows  ICICI Securities Ltd. (www.icicidirect.com)  Kotak Securities Ltd. (www.kotaksecurities.com)  Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (www.indiabulls.com)  IL&FS investmart Limited (www.investsmartindia.com)  SSKI Ltd. (www.sharekhan.com)  Motilal Oswal Securities (www.motilaloswal.com)  Fortis Securities (Religare) (www.fortissecurities.com)  Karvy securities (www.karvy.com)  Geojit BNP paribas (www.geojitbnpparibas.com)  HDFC Securities (www.hdfcsec.com)  Hedge equities (www.hedgeequities.com)  Jrg securities  India infoline (www.indiainfoline.com)

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CHAPTER - III COMPANY PROFILE

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3.1 COMPANY PROFILE


Team Hedge is a balanced mix of more than 15 years experience cutting across various industries with a strong background in the financial markets. The board comprises of six power houses in their respective fields - FedEx Securities, Baby Marine Exports, Thakker Developers, Smart financial, SM Hegde (CFO, Videocon Industries) and Padmashree Mohan Lal

FedEx Securities Managed by a team of ex-bankers, FedEx is a SEBI registered category 1 merchant banker. The company concentrates on non fund based activities like structuring, tie up of project financing, financial restructuring, investment banking, corporate and advisory services. The core management team consists of bankers with rich experience of decades and exposure to volatile situations in commercial and investment banking. With offices at Nariman Point and Vile Parle East, Mumbai, state of the art infrastructure and qualified manpower to conduct the business, FedEx Securities envisages a phenomenal growth in this sector for its clients.

Baby Marine Exports Baby Marine Group, started its operations in 1977 from Kozhikode and through innovation and hard work has grown into three units and related industries spanning both the west and east coast of Indian. Baby Marine Exports, B.M products, and Baby Marine (Eastern) Exports are efficiently aided by pre processing units, ice factories, and a fleet of insulated and refrigerated trucks for sea food transportation. Due to constant upgrading of machinery, state-of-the-art infrastructural facilities, better links with raw material suppliers, and an established network of purchasers have obviously made Baby Marine Group a leading Exporter of processed marine Products to various international markets.

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Smart financial Smart Financial entered the financial market only in 1992 but over this brief span has covered a niche for itself by becoming leading financial service provider. The company offers guidance to investors as to equities, commodities, mutual funds, portfolio management services and insurance. It offers complete range of financial solutions that encompasses every sphere of life. Thakker Group Starting off as a land developer and builder in 1962, Thakkers group diversified into commercial production of agricultural and horticultural products, housing real estate marketing, plantations.etc. They have provided shelter to more than 40000 families by offering residential plots and premises. A Thakker developer is the flagship company of the group. It was established as private limited in 1987 and later went on to become the only public limited company in North Maharashtra engaged in housing, commercial construction and land development. S.M.Hegde Mr. S.M Hegde, a chartered accountant by profession is the Chief Finance Officer of the Indian Multinational Videocon International and has been at the helm of affairs for the last 20 years. Padmashree Bharat Mohanlal Mohanlal, the south Indian movie superstar has become a legend, a brand, and cultural ambassador owing to various factors. Versatility and a natural flair for donning complex characters have won him numerous accolades not to speak of some unforgettable films contributed by him. A multifaceted personality, he has some business ventures also which include Vismaya Max Film Post Production Studio, College for Dubbing Artists at the Kinfra film and Video Park, Thiruvanathapuram. He is also the director of Uni Royal Marine Exports; a Kozhikode based major Seafood Export Company.

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Intellectual and knowledge arbitrage is the mantra of modern day business. The same holds true for the financial markets. With the breadth and depth of knowledge of modern day business that the Board of Hedge brings to the table, you can be rest assured that some of the best minds in the business are taking care of your investments.

MISSION
To create an ethical and sustainable financial services platform for our customers and partner them to build business, to provide employees with meaningful work, self-development and progression, and to achieve a consistent and competitive growth in profit and earnings for our shareholders and staff.

VISION
Ever since its inception, Hedge Equities has been a household name among the masses owing our success to timely Professional financial assistance to our clients. This aptly articulates our vision of Evolving into a financial supermarket which will be a one stop shop for all financial solutions.

SOCIAL CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY


Being a Responsible Corporate Citizen, Hedge Equities has initiated a Non Profit movement Hedge Yuva which focuses on educating the masses about Stock Market. The movement has also formulated various scholarship programs for young and dynamic youth.

3.2 SERVICES OFFERED


Online trading Hedge Equities has a large network of branches with online terminals of NSE and BSE in the Capital market and Derivative segments. The clients are assured of prompt order execution through dedicated phones and expert dealers at our offices.
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Internet Trading Hedge Equities offers Internet trading through this site. You can trade through the Internet from the comforts of your office or home, anywhere in the world. The dedicated IT systems ensure service up time and speed, making Internet broking through Hedge Equities hassle-free. Using the 'easiest' facility provided by NDSL, our clients can transfer the shares sold by them online without delivery instruction slips. Additionally, digitally signed contract notes can be sent to clients through E-mail. Depository services Hedge Equities is a member of the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL), offer depository services with minimum Annual Maintenance Charges and transaction charges. Account holders can view their holding position through the Internet. We also offer the easiest facility provided by NDSL (electronic access to securities information and execution of secured transaction) through which clients can give delivery instructions via the Internet. Derivative trading. Hedge offer trading in the futures and options segment of the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Through the present derivative trading an investor can take a shortterm view on the market for up to a three months perspective by paying a small margin on the futures segment and a small premium in the options segment. In the case of options, if the trade goes in the opposite direction the maximum loss will be limited to the premium paid. Knowledge Centre Knowledge Centre activities are intended to provide systematic and structured services mainly to new investors and also to young aspirant aiming for a career in financial markets. The centre has three functional areas: the publication Division, the Training centre, and wealth management advisory service which provides complete investment solutions to investors through knowledge based personalized service.

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Equity Research Hedge Equities constantly strive to deliver insightful research to enable proactive investment decisions. The Research Department is broadly divided into two divisions Fundamental Analysis Group (FAG) and Technical Analysis Group (TAG). Our fundamental analysts are continuously scanning the entire economy for discovering what they call the hidden gems in stock market terminology and present it to our clients for profitable investments. A good Fundamental Analysis team has the capability to identify emerging businesses before such businesses become the talk of the street and we are proud to say we have one such Fundamental Analysis team. Timing the market has always been the most difficult task for all analysts and our Technical Analysis Group has emerged to predict the market movements well in advance using complex Analytical methods including Elliot Wave Theory. We are equipped with cutting-edge technologies for technical charting which assist our technical analysts to predict both upside and downside movements efficiently for the benefit of our clients. Portfolio Management Services Hedge Equities is a SEBI-approved portfolio manager offering discretionary and non-discretionary schemes to its clients. Hedge Equities portfolio management team keeps track of the markets on a daily basis and is exposed to a lot of information and analytic tools which an investor would not normally have access to. Other technicalities pertaining to shares like dividends, rights, bonus, buy-back, Mergers and Acquisitions are also taken care of by us. Maximize your returns by opting for our PMS scheme. Commodity Trading You can trade in commodity futures like gold, silver, crude oil, rubber etc. and take advantage of the extended trading hours (10 am to 11 pm) in commodities trading.

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Mutual Funds, Bonds etc. We also offer Mutual Funds and Bonds. You can select from a wide range of Mutual Funds and Bonds available in the markets today. Currency Trading Currency derivatives can be described as contracts between the sellers and buyers, whose values are to be derived from the underlying assets, the currency amounts. These are basically risk management tools in force and money markets used for hedging risks and act as insurance against unforeseen and unpredictable currency and interest rate movements. Any individual or corporate expecting to receive or pay certain amounts in foreign currencies at future date can use these products to opt for a fixed rate - at which the currencies can be exchanged now itself. Currency derivative serve the purpose of financial risk management encompassing various market risks. An upfront premium is payable for buying a derivative. Currency Futures will bring in more transparency and efficiency in price discovery, eliminate counterparty credit risk, provide access to all types of market participants, offer standardized products and provide transparent trading platform. .COMPETITORS y y y y y y y Geojit BNP Paribas JRG Securities Religare Muthoot Securities Sharewealth Motilal Oswal Anandrathi

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3.3 FUNCTIONAL DEPARTMENTS


CLIENT RELATION DEPARTMENT The client relation department assists the client or customer top open an account in HEDGE EQUITIES (P) LTD securities. This department is also known as the front office. A client has to open two types of accounts to trade and own securities in the NSE & BSE. They are: FINANCE DEPARTMENT Thus a department, to organize financial activities may be created under the direct control of the board of directors. Finance manager will decide the major financial policy methods. Lower levels can delegate the other routine activities. MARKETING DEPARTMENT The major functions of marketing department are: a) Business associate development: the company takes up the marketing activities of the various branches. It ensures an efficient marketing arena at its various branches. The company encourages better relations in its branches and promotes for the development of various marketing strategies. b) Brand promotion: An important function of marketing department is to promote the name of the company. HEDGE EQUITIES (P) LTD does it through the different promotional activities. The name of HEDGE EQUITIES (P) LTD as a stock broking firm is made known to the outside world. c) Investment promotion: The main clients of HEDGE EQUITIES (P) LTD were its investors. Hence the marketing department tries to capture as many investors as possible to encourage them to invest. d) Delivery Promotion: Intraday trading is not always profitable and might involve a lot of risk hence HEDGE EQUITIES (P) LTD promotes for delivery were the shares are kept to be sold for a later date after analyzing the profitability factors.

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SYSTEMS DEPARTMENT The systems department is playing a vital role in the day to day operations of the company. It is through the systems department that the clients can avail the facilities of Internet trading. Optic fibre cables and high bandwidth connections from the HEDGE EQUITIES (P) LTD office to the ISP, a dedicated server and back-up ISDN connections were maintained directly by the systems department. For the purpose of trading they have made use of two software namely ODIN (Open Dealers Integrated Network). HUMAN RESOURCES DEPARTMENT Human resource is often considered as the back bone of an organization even in this age of advanced automation & mechanization. Since virtual organizations are not very much popular in our part of the world, it is very important to any organization to have a HR department. The presence of an excellent HR department increases the efficiency of an organization considerably. Human resource management is defined as asset of practices, policies and programmes designed to maximize both personal and organizational goals. a) Training & induction The selected employees will undergo three days continuous induction. During this period, he will undergo training with all the department of HEDGE EQUITIES (P) LTD Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. There will also be classroom induction also within three months. b) Wages and Salary Administration The wages and salaries of the employees were fixed and granted by the HR department with consent of the finance department c) Performance Appraisal It was human resources department which gives the promotions to all employees, making transfers and taking disciplinary actions if needed

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d) Grievance Handling The grievances of the employees were received only through proper channels i.e., through the particular department heads. The HR department will make solutions to the complaints as per the rules and regulations of the company. TRADING DEPARTMENT The department deals with the trading related activities of the company. The trading refers to the buying & selling of shares. This department is the most important part of the organization. There are two types of trading. They are: a) Online trading: These are the trading terminal of the organization. The each computer of the department is termed as the trading terminal. The each terminal is assigned with NCFM certified dealers, who is in charge of each portal will do the trade according to the client request. The terminal is managed by either NEAT (National Exchange for automated Trading) software or ODIN (Open Dealers Integrated Network) software. The client can also place his through written request or through the telephone, in this the order will be placed by the dealer. b) Internet trading: The internet trading is a facility provides by the company in order to trade the securities from his convenient place like his office, home etc. the order will be placed by the client itself, and he can make changes before the trade is done for changing the price, cancellation of the order. DELIVERY & DEPOSITORY DEPARTMENT Delivery refers to the shares that bought on a particular day are not sold on that day itself and holding of the shares for an appreciation in the value of the security and to trade it on a future date. Deliver Instruction Slip: it is a slip the client should fill and gave to the dealer regarding the purchase of the share. There are two procedures to move the share namely,

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a) Power of attorney This is which the Clint signs at the time of opening a trading account and depository participant account. If the client has given the power of attorney, HEDGE EQUITIES (P) LTD will have the power to transact the clients stocks without pay-in slips. b) Easiest It is secured internet enabled service which means Electronic Access to Securities information and Execution of Secured Transaction. This is facility wherein the clients can give delivery instructions via internet. Easiest is a facility provided by CDSL.

The activities related with the depository department.  Depository function  Dematerialization  Pledging

EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT The function of the department is to study the details regarding the share or security and to make predictions regarding the future performance of the company The types of approaches done in the department a) Fundamental analysis b) Technical analysis

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CHAPTER- IV THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

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4.1 STOCK EXCHANGE: Stock Exchange is an organized marketplace where securities are traded. These securities are by the government, semi-government Bodies, Public sector undertakings and companies for borrowing funds and raising resources. Securities are defined as monetary claims and include stock, shares, debentures, bonds etc. If these securities are marketable as in the case of Government stock, they are transferable by endorsement and are like movable property. Under the securities Contract Regulation Act of 1956, securities trading are regulated by the Central Government and such trading can take place only in Stock Exchange recognized by the Government under this Act. At present there are 23 recognized stock Exchanges in India. Indian Stock Markets are one of the oldest in Asia. Its history dates back to nearly 200 years ago. BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE: Bombay Stock Exchange is the oldest stock exchange in Asian with a rich heritage, now spanning three centuries in its 133 years of existence. What is now popularly known as BSE was established as The Native Share & Stock Brokers Association in 1875. BSE is the first stock exchange in the country which obtained permanent recognition (in 1956) from the government of India under the Securities Countracts (Regulation) Act 1956. BSEs pivotal and pre-eminent role in the development of the Indian capital market is widely recognized. It migrated from the open outcry system to an online screen- based order driven trading system in 1955. Earlier an Association Of Persons (AOP), BSE is now a corporatized and demutualised entity incorporated under the provisions of the companies Act, 1956, pursuant to the BSE (Corporatization and Demutualization) Scheme, 2005 notified by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). With demutualization, BSE has two of worlds best exchanges, Deutsche Borse and Singapore Exchange, as its strategic partners. Over the past 133 years, BSE has facilitated the growth of the Indian corporate sector by providing it with an efficient access to resources. There is perhaps no major corporate in India which has not sourced BSEs services in raising resources from the capital market.

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Today, BSE is the worlds number 1 exchange in terms of the number of listed companies and the worlds 5th in transaction numbers. The market capitalization as on December 31, 2007 stood at USD 1.79 trillion. An inventor can choose from more than 4700 listed companies, which for easy reference, are classified into A, B, S, T and Z groups.The BSE Index, SENSEX, is Indians first stock market index that enjoys an iconic stature, and is tracked worldwide. It is an index of 30 stocks representing 12 malor sectors. The SENSEX is constructed on a free-float methodology, and is sensitive to market sentiments and market realities. Apart from the SENSEX, BSE offers 21 indices, including 12 sectoral indicates. BSE has entered into an index cooperation agreement with Deutsche Borse. This agreement has made SENSEEX and other BSE indices available to investors in Europe and America. Moreover, Barclays Global Investors (BGI), the global leader in ETFS through its Trader which tracks the SENSEX. The ETF enables investors in Hong Kong to take an exposure to the Indian equity market. BSE provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in equity, debt instruments and derivatives. It has a nation- wide reach with a pressure in more than 450 cities and towns of India. BSE has always been at par with the international standards. The systems and processes are designed to safeguard market integrity and enhance transparency in operations.BSE is the first exchange in India and the second is the world to obtain an ISO 9001:2000 certification. It is also the first exchange in India and the second in the world to receive Information Security Management System Standard BS 7799-2-2002 certification for its BSE On-line Trading System (BOLT).BSE continues to innovate. In recent times, it has become the first national level stock exchange to launch its website in Gujarati and Hindi to reach out to a large number of investors. It has successfully launched a reporting platform for corporate bonds in India christened the ICDM or Indian Corporate Dept Market and a unique ticker screen aptly named BSE Broadcast which enables information dissemination to the common man on the street. In 2006, BSE launched the Directors Database and ICERS (India Corporate Electronic Reporting System) to facilitate information flow and increase transparency in Indian capital market. While the Directors database provides a single-point access to information in the boards of directors of listed companies, the ICERS facilities the

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corporate in sharing with BSE their corporate announcements. BSE also has a wide range of services to empower investors and facilitate smooth transactions: Investors Services: The Department of Investor Services redresses grievances of investors. BSE was the first exchange in the country to provide an amount of Rs.1 million towards the investor protection fund; it is an amount higher than that of any exchange in the country. BSE launched a nationwide investor awareness programmesafe investing in the Stock Market under which 264vprogrammes were held in more than 200 cities. The BSE On-line Trading (BOLT): BSE On-line Trading (BOLT) facilitates on-line screen based trading in securities. BOLT is currently operating in 25,000 Trader Workstations located across over 450 cities in India. BSEWEBX.com: In February 2001, BSE introduced the worlds first centralized exchange-based Internet trading system, BSEWEBX.com. This initiative enables investors anywhere in the world to trade on the BSE platform. Surveillance: BSEs On-line Surveillance System (BOSS) monitors on a real-time basis the price movements, volume positions and members positions an real-time measurement of default risk, market reconstruction and generation of cross market alerts. BSE Trading Institution: BTI imparts capital market trading and certification, in collaboration with reputed management institutes and universities. It offers over 40 courses on various aspects of the capital market and financial sector. More than 20,000 people have attended the BTI programmes.

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Companies in the Sensex


List of BSE Sensex companies provides the full list of companies that have been part of the BSE Sensex since its inception in 1986 (base lined to 1979). Code 500410 ACC 500103 BHEL 532454 Bharti Airtel Name Sector Housing Related Capital Goods Telecom Adj. Factor 0.55 0.35 0.35 0.25 0.75 0.90 0.85 0.50 0.7 Weight in Index(%) 0.77 3.26 3 1.02 1.5 5.21 5.03 1.43 1.75

532868 DLF Universal Limited Housing related 500300 Grasim Industries 500010 HDFC 500180 HDFC Bank Diversified Finance Finance

500182 Hero Honda Motors Ltd. Transport Equipments 500440 Hindalco Industries Ltd. Hindustan Lever Limited Metal,Metal Products & Mining FMCG Finance

500696

0.50 1.00

2.08 7.86 10.26 4.99 1.25 6.85 1.71 1.71 2.03 2.03 2.03
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532174 ICICI Bank 500209 Infosys 500875 ITC Limited 532532 Jaiprakash Associates 500510 Larsen & Toubro 500520 Mahindra & Mahindra Limited

Information Technology 0.85 FMCG Housing Related Capital Goods Transport Equipments Transport Equipments 0.70 0.55 0.90 0.75 0.50

532500 Maruti Suzuki 532541 NIIT Technologies 532555 NTPC 500304 NIIT
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Information Technology 0.15 Power 0.15

Information Technology 0.15

FII s Influence On Sensex Over The Period 2000-2010

500312 ONGC 532712 Reliance Communications

Oil & Gas Telecom Oil & Gas Power Finance Metal, Metal Products, and Mining Healthcare

0.20 0.35 0.50 0.65 0.45 0.45

3.87 0.92 12.94 1.19 4.57 2.39

500325 Reliance Industries 500390 Reliance Infrastructure 500112 State Bank of India 500900 Sterlite Industries Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Tata Consultancy Services

524715

0.40

1.03

532540

Information Technology 0.25 Transport Equipments Power Metal, Metal Products & Mining 0.55 0.70 0.70

3.61 1.66 1.63 2.88 1.61

500570 Tata Motors 500400 Tata Power 500470 Tata Steel 507685 Wipro

Information Technology 0.20 TABLE NO 4.1

y y y y y

DLF replaced Dr. Reddy's Lab on November 19, 2007. Jaiprakash Associates Ltd replaced Bajaj Auto Ltd on March 14, 2008. Sterlite Industries replaced Ambuja Cements on July 28, 2008. Tata Power Company replaced Cipla Ltd. on July 28, 2008. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries replaced Satyam Computer Services on January 8, 2009 Hero Honda Motors Ltd. replaced Ranbaxy on June 29, 2009 Cipla to replace Sun Pharma from May 3, 2010 Grasim replaced JSPL in 2010

y y y

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13SECTORS OF BSE y y y y y y y y y y y y y HC (health care) REALITY AUTO METAL IT CG (capital goods) ONG (oil and gas) POWER PSU CD (consumer durables) BANK TECH FMCG

NAME OF BSE 30 COMPANIES

ACC, BHARTI AIRTEL, BHEL, DLF, GRASIM, HDFC, HDFC BANK, HINDALCO, HUL, ICICI BANK, INFOSYS, ITC, JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES, L&T, MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA, MARUTI SUZUKI, ONGC, NTPC, RANABAXY LAB, RELIENCE, RELIENCE COMM, RELIENCE INFRASTRUCTURE, SATYAM, SBI, STERLITE INDUSTRY, TATA MOTORS, TATA POWER, TATA STEEL. TCS, WIPRO.

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NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE (NSE): With the liberalization of the Indian economy, it was found inevitable to lift the Indian stock market trading system on par with the international standards. On the basis of the recommendations of high-powered Pherwani Committee, Industrial Development Bank of India, Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Industrial Finance Corporation of India, all Insurance Corporations, selected commercial banks and others incorporated the National Stock Exchange in 1992. Trading at NSE can be classified under two broad categories: (a) Wholesale debt market and (b) Capital market. There are two kinds of players in NSE: (a) Trading members and (b) Participants. Trading at NSE takes place through a fully automated screen-based trading mechanism, which adopts the principle of an order-driven market. Trading members can stay at their offices and execute the trading, since they are linked through a communication network. The prices at which the buyer and seller are willing to transact will appear on the screen. When the prices match the transaction will be completed and a confirmation slip will be printed at the office of the trading member. NSE has several advantages over the traditional trading exchanges. They are as follows:  NSE brings an integrated stock market trading network across the nation.  Investors can trade at the same price from anywhere in the country since intermarket operations are streamlined coupled with the countrywide access to the securities.  Delays in communication, late payments and the malpractice's prevailing in the traditional trading mechanism can be done away with greater operational efficiency and informational transparency in the stock market operations, with the support of total computerized network.

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List of Top 50 Companies of NSE (National Stock Exchange

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD, OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATION LTD, BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED, NTPC LTD, RELIANCE COMMUNICATIONS LTD., ICICI BANK LTD, INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD, TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD, BHEL, STATE BANK OF INDIA, STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA, LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD., HERO HONDA MOTORS LTD, ZEE ENTERTAINMENT LTD, INDIAN PETROCHEMICALS CORPORATION LTD., CIPLA LTD, BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD.,VIDESH SANCHAR NIGAM LTD, DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES, MAHANAGAR TELEPHONE NIGAM LTD, GLAXOSMITHKLINE PHARMA LTD.,ABB LTD. POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA, RELIANCE ENERGY LTD, SIEMENS LTD, ACC LIMITED, AMBUJA CEMENTS LTD, HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD, HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD, NATIONAL ALUMINIUM CO LTD, SUN PHARMACEUTICALS IND., MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD, TATA POWER CO LTD, PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK, RANBAXY LABS LTD, ITC LTD, RELIANCE PETROLEUM LTD., HDFC LTD, WIPRO LTD, STERLITE INDUSTRIES LTD., HDFC BANK LTD, TATA STEEL LIMITED, HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD., SUZLON ENERGY LIMITED, GAIL (INDIA) LTD, GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD, TATA MOTORS LIMITED, MARUTI UDYOG LIMITED

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INTERNATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGES

(TABLE NO 4.2)

Rank

Economy

Stock Exchange

Market Capitalization (USD Billions) 13041 3649 3542 3354 2696 2695 2681 2002 1540 1503 1447 1320 1309 1284 1122 1077 2617 2262 954

Trade Value (USD Billions) 1439 954 311 229 179 165 686 134 231 791 704 123 101 548 674 149

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Americas

United States United States Japan United Kingdom Hong Kong Europe China Canada India India Brazil Germany Australia

New York Stock Exchange NASDAQ Tokyo Stock Exchange London Stock Exchange Hong Kong Stock Exchange Euronext Shanghai Stock Exchange Toronto Stock Exchange Bombay Stock Exchange National Stock Exchange of India BM&F Bovespa Deutsche Brse Australian Securities Exchange Shenzhen Stock Exchange SIX Swiss Exchange BME Spanish Exchanges 21244 18287 13975

China Switzerland Spain

Asia - Pacific Europe - Africa - Middle East Total

51752

5833
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4.2 INTRODUCTION TO FII


International portfolio flows, as are commonly known as Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) flows, refer to capital flows made by individual and institutional investors across national borders with a view to creating an internationally diversified portfolio.

FII include Overseas pension funds, mutual funds, investment trust, asset management company, nominee company, bank, institutional portfolio manager, university funds, endowments, foundations, charitable trusts, charitable societies, a trustee or power of attorney holder incorporated or established outside India proposing to make proprietary investments or investments on behalf of a broad-based fund. Foreign institutional investor means an entity established or incorporated outside India which proposes to make investment in India. Positive tidings about the Indian economy combined with a fast-growing market have made India an attractive destination for foreign institutional investors. Unlike Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows which refer to that category of international investment aimed at obtaining a lasting interest by a resident entity in one economy in an enterprise resident in another economy by way of exercising significant control over its management, FII flows are not directed at acquiring management control over foreign companies. FII flows were almost non-existent until 1980s. Global capital flows were primarily characterized by syndicated bank loans in 1970s followed by FDI flows in 1980s.

But a strong trend towards globalization leading to widespread liberalization and implementation of financial market reforms in many countries of the world had actually set the pace for FII flows during 1990s.

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According to Bekaert and Harvey (2000), FII investment as a proportion of a developing country's GDP increases substantially with liberalization as such integration of domestic financial markets with the global markets permits free flow of capital from 'capital-rich' to 'capital-scarce' countries in pursuit of higher rate of return and increased productivity and efficiency of capital at global level.

Diversifying internationally i.e., holding a well-diversified portfolio of securities from around the world in proportion to market capitalizations, irrespective of the investor's country of residence, has long been advocated as the means to reduce overall portfolio risk and maximize risk-adjusted returns by the classical capital asset pricing model (CAPM). But a persistent 'home bias' (i.e., the tendency to hold a greater proportion of stocks from the home country vis-a-vis the foreign country) was noticed in the portfolios of investors in capital-rich industrialized countries in early 1990s. With more and more emerging market economies (EMEs) 1 deregulating their financial markets by eliminating foreign exchange controls, reducing taxes imposed on foreign investors, relaxing the restrictions on the purchase / sale of securities by foreign investors in domestic markets etc., such 'home bias' has decreased over the years. Today, EMEs, by virtue of their lower correlations in stock market returns with the developed markets, offer greater scope to investors in developed countries to reduce their overall portfolio risk and effectively enhance the portfolio performance and hence have become the most preferred destinations for FII flows. Several research studies on FII flows to EMEs over the world have highlighted that financial market infrastructure such as the market size, market liquidity, trading costs, extent of information dissemination etc., legal mechanisms relating to property rights etc., harmonization of corporate governance, accounting, listing and other rules with those followed in developed markets, and strengthening of securities markets' enforcement are important determinants of foreign portfolio investments into emerging markets. Of late, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have initiated a string of measures like allowing
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overseas pension funds, mutual funds, investment trusts, asset management companies, banks, institutional portfolio managers, university funds, endowments, foundations or charitable trusts etc. but banning non-resident Indians (NRIs) and overseas corporate bodies (OCBs) from trading as foreign portfolio investors, raising the caps for FII from 24% to 49% of a non-bank company's issued capital subject to sectoral caps / statutory ceiling as applicable, enhancing the individual investment limit from 5% to 10% of issued capital, permitting foreign investors to trade in Government securities and derivatives, easing the norms for FII registration, reducing procedural delays, lowering fees, mandating stricter disclosure norms, improved regulatory standards etc. with a view to improving the scope, coverage and quality of FII flows into India. As a result, India, also supported by her strong economic fundamentals, has become one of the attractive destinations for FII flows in the emerging market space today. The expansionary effect of various reform measures on FII flows over the years can be gauged from the fact that net (i.e., gross purchases minus gross sales) FII flows into India have risen sharply from Rs. 5126 crore in 1993-1994 2 to Rs. 46,215 crore in 2004-2005, with the number of foreign institutional investors being registered with SEBI increasing from 3 in 1993-1994 to 685 in 2004-2005 (Source : SEBI website). This increasing dominance of foreign investors in Indian market has necessitated research on the implications of FII flows for the Indian stock market time and again. Although FII flows help supplement the domestic savings and augment domestic investments without increasing the foreign debt of the recipient countries, correct current account deficits in the external balance of payments' position, reduce the required rate of return for equity, and enhance stock prices of the host countries, yet there are worries about the vulnerability of recipient countries' capital markets to such flows. FII flows, often referred to as 'hot money' (i.e., short-term and overly speculative), are extremely volatile in character compared to other forms of capital flows.

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Foreign portfolio investors are regarded as 'fairweather friends' who come in when there is money to be made and leave at the first sign of impending trouble in the host country thereby destabilizing the domestic economy of the recipient country. Often, they have been blamed for exacerbating small economic problems in the host nation by making large and concerted withdrawals at the slightest hint of economic weakness. It is also alleged that as they make frequent marginal adjustments to their portfolios on the basis of a change in their perceptions of a country's solvency rather than variations in underlying asset value, they tend to spread crisis even to countries with strong fundamentals thereby causing 'contagion' in international financial markets (FitzGerald,1999).

TRENDS OF FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENTS IN INDIA. Portfolio investments in India include investments in American Depository Receipts (ADRs)/ Global Depository Receipts (GDRs), Foreign Institutional Investments and investments in offshore funds. Before 1992, only Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Corporate Bodies were allowed to undertake portfolio investments in India. Thereafter, the Indian stock markets were opened up for direct participation by FIIs. They were allowed to invest in all the securities traded on the primary and the secondary market including the equity and other securities/instruments of companies listed/to be listed on stock exchanges in India

In 2004, FII investments crossed $9 billion, the highest in the history of Indian capital markets. The total net investment for the year up to December 29 stood at US$9,072 million while foreign investors pumped in about US$2,113 million in December.

Korea and Taiwan have always been the biggest recipients of FII money. It was only in 2004 that India managed to receive the second highest FII inflow at over $8.5bn.

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In 2005 FIIs invested more in Indian equities than in Korean or Taiwanese equities.

On 9th March 2009, India's exceptional growth story and its booming economy have made the country a favourite destination with foreign institutional investors (FIIs). It has continued to attract investment despite the Satyam non-governance issue and the global economic contagion impact on Indian markets.

They are also the most successful portfolio investors in India with 102 per cent Appreciation since September 30, 2003. As per SEBI, number of registered FIIs stood at 1626 and number of registered subaccounts stood at 4972 as on March 17, 2009

Prohibitions on Investments: Foreign Institutional Investors are not permitted to invest in equity issued by an Asset Reconstruction Company. They are also not allowed to invest in any company which is engaged or proposes to engage in the following activities:
y y y y

Business of chit fund Nidhi Company Agricultural or plantation activities Real estate business or construction of farm houses (real estate business does not include development of townships, construction of residential/commercial premises, roads or bridges). Trading in Transferable Development Rights (TDRs).

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FUTURE PROSPECTS OF FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENTS: y Sustaining the growth momentum and achieving an annual average growth of 9-10 % in the next five years. y Simplifying procedures and relaxing entry barriers for business activities and Providing investor friendly laws and tax system. y Checking the growth of population; India is the second highest populated country in the world after China. However in terms of density India exceeds China, as India's land area is almost half of China's total land. Due to a high population growth, GNI per capita remains very poor. It was only $ 2880 in 2003 (World Bank figures). y Boosting agricultural growth through diversification and development of agro processing. y Expanding industry fast, by at least 10% per year to integrate not only the surplus labour in agriculture but also the unprecedented number of women and teenagers joining the labour force every year. y y y Developing world-class infrastructure for sustaining growth in all the sectors Allowing foreign investment in more areas. Effecting fiscal consolidation and eliminating the revenue deficit through revenue enhancement and expenditure management. Market Outcome in the previous years Foreign Portfolio investments in India come in the form of investments in American Depository Receipts (ADRs)/ Global Depository Receipts (GDRs), Foreign Institutional Investments and investments in Offshore funds. However, FIIs constitute a major proportion of such portfolio. The share of FIIs in total portfolio flows was as high as 95.97% in 2003-04 and 93.25% in 2004-05. It declined to 46% in 2006-07. This decline in FII investment in 2006-07 can be attributed to global developments like meltdown in global commodities markets and equity market during the three month period between May 2006 to July 2006, fall in
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Asian Equity markets, tightening of capital controls in Thailand and its spill over effects. The share of FII investment in total portfolio investment for 2007-08 is provisionally estimated to be 69.15%. The large FII inflows (net) in 2007-08 at USD 16 billion as against USD 6.7 billion in 2006-07 reflects increased participation of FIIs in the primary market as corporates raised large resources through 85 initial public offerings (IPOs) and 7 follow-on public offers (FPOs) aggregating to Rs 545,110 million. (US $ 13,638 million).

Looking at monthly trend in FII investments during 2007-08 it can be seen that net FII investment has been positive during most of the months. The months of August 2007, November 2007, January, 2008 and March, 2008 saw net outflows of FII investment, with the largest pull out of US $ 2727 mn in January, 2008. During 2008-09, till June 2008, FIIs have been net sellers to the tune of US $ 4,189 million. This can be attributed to the generally weak sentiments of investors following the global credit crisis which has engulfed the developed countries and is seen to be affecting the developing countries as well.

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CHAPTER- V ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

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TYPES OF STUDY AND ANALYSIS CONDUCTED


1. THE PERFORMANCE OF SENSEX By Sensex return y y 2. From 2000-2010 In 2010 ( monthly basis)

INFLUENCE OF FII ON SENSEX By Sensex return V/S FIIs net inflow y y From 2000-2010 In 2010 (monthly basis)

Number of FIIs registered and the Sensex returns

3. FIIS INFLOW V/S SENSEX RETURNS Coefficient of Correlation method Regression method

y y 4

TRENDS IN THE FIIS INVESTMENT Trend analysis

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5.1 SENSEX PERFORMANCE OVER THE YEARS


Indices :SENSEX Period : ( Year 1991 to Year 2011 )
Year
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Open
1,027.38 1,957.33 2,617.78 3,436.87 3,910.16 3,114.08 3,096.65 3,658.34 3,064.95 5,209.54 3,990.65 3,262.01 3,383.85 5,872.48 6,626.49 9,422.49 13,827.77 20,325.27 9,720.55 17,473.45 20,621.61

High
1,955.29 4,546.58 3,459.07 4,643.31 3,943.66 4,131.22 4,605.41 4,322.00 5,150.99 6,150.69 4,462.11 3,758.27 5,920.76 6,617.15 9,442.98 14,035.30 20,498.11 21,206.77 17,530.94 21,108.64 20,664.80

Low
947.14 1,945.48 1,980.06 3,405.88 2,891.45 2,713.12 3,096.65 2,741.22 3,042.25 3,491.55 2,594.87 2,828.48 2,904.44 4,227.50 6,069.33 8,799.01 12,316.10 7,697.39 8,047.17 15,651.99 17,295.62

Close
1,908.85 2,615.37 3,346.06 3,926.90 3,110.49 3,085.20 3,658.98 3,055.41 5,005.82 3,972.12 3,262.33 3,377.28 5,838.96 6,602.69 9,397.93 13,786.91 20,286.99 9,647.31 17,464.81 20,509.09 18,300.90

Source: www.bseindia.com/archieves

TABLE NO: 5.1


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SENSEX PERFORMANCE 1991-2010


25000

20000

15000 Year Close 10000

5000

CHART NO 5. 1

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INTERPRETATION The Bombay stock exchange (BSE SENSEX) which is one of the most important secondary market in India ,has seen many ups and downs from its years of its starting in 1991. The market opened at 1027.38 point and closed at 1908.85 with a high value of 1955.29 and with a low value of 947.14 in the same year. Since then, the values in the Sensex has increased and decreased. From the table, it can be found that the Sensex crossed the four digit number in 2006 , and at 13786.91 from the previous year value of 9397.93 (2005) The changes in the value of Sensex depends upon many factors, like .. y y y y National and global issues Legal and political issues GDP growth rate of the nation Activities of the foreign investments Etc. From the table it is found that in the year 2008 the Sensex closed at 9647.31 from the previous years 20286.99. The reason for the huge fall in market was due to global recession which not only caught Indian market but also the over all international markets too When the recession began to end in the world, the Sensex and other markets could see increase in value. And at the end of 2010 the Sensex closed at 20509.09

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5.2

ANALYSIS OF SENSEX RETURNS V/S FIIs INVESTMENTS

TABLE OF SENSEX RETURN FROM 2000-10 YEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 SENSEX
3972.12 3262.33 3377.28 5838.96 6602.69 9397.93 13,786.91 20,286.99 9,647.31 17,464.81 20,509.09

RETURN( %)

-17.869 3.523 72.889 13.079 42.334 46.701 47.146 -46.522 81.032 17.177

TABLE NO 5.2 The BSE SENSEX performance is calculated on a percentage basis from the year 2000 to 2010. Sensex return in percent, is calculated by the % change in the closing point of the Sensex in previous year to the current year

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SENSEX RETURN FROM 2000-10 CHART NO 5.2

RETURN %
100 80 60 40 20 0 1 -20 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 RETURN %

-40

-60

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FIIs INVESTMENT TABLE OF FIIs NET INFLOW

YEAR

GROSS PURCHASE(Cr)

GROSS SALE (Cr) 68421.60 38572.80 42673.54 64024.10 145185.50 636901.72 404523.22 734227.52 773809.50 540636.90 698390.80

NET INFLOW (Cr)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-JAN 11

74791.50 51866.40 46320.31 94816.50 183883.70 713990.40 435804.30 805167.57 720757.80 626004.50 826352.50

6370.50 13294.70 3627.27 29953.20 38688.40 77106.68 31281.08 70940.05 -53051.70 85367.60 134167

Source : moneycontrol.com

TABLE NO 5.3

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FIIs NET INFLOW


NET INFLOW (Cr)
150000

100000

50000 NET INFLOW (Cr) 0

-50000

-100000

CHART NO 5.3

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FII NET INFLOW VS SENSEX RETURN

YEAR 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

FII NET INFLOW

RETURN (%) -17.869 3.523 72.889 13.079 42.334 46.701 47.146 -46.522 81.032 17.177

13294.70 3627.27 29953.20

38688.40 77106.68 31281.08 70940.05

-53051.70

85367.60 134167

TABLE NO 5.4

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SENSEX RETURN (%) V/S FII NET INFLOW


150000

100000

50000 FII NET INFLOW RETURN (%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

-50000

-100000

CHART NO 5.4 INTERPRETATION When comparing the Sensex returns and the FII net inflow from the years , it can be found that the Sensex gain height returns in the year 2009 (81.03%) and the FII net inflow at that year was 85367 Cr. And the Sensex loss maximum point (-46.522) when the net inflow was - 53051 Cr in the year 2008. Recession and many other global and national issues were key factors for this change. The negative sign show that in 2008 FIIs were not investing their money. They were sellers.

*(The Sensex return is not only depend upon FII)*

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ANALYSIS OF SENSEX RETURN TO FIIs INVESTMENT 2010 TABLE OF SENSEX RETURN 2010 MONTH JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC SENSEX POINT 16357.96 16429.55 17527.77 17558.71 16944.63 17700.90 17868.29 17971.12 20069.12 20032.34 19521.25 20509.09 0.437 6.68 0.1765 -3.49 4.463 0.945 0.575 11.670 -0.183 -2.55 5.06 % GAIN

TABLE NO 5.5 The Sensex gain maximum return 11.670% during the month of September 2010. And loss -3.49% in May by making the Sensex to close at 16944.63

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CHART OF SENSEX RETURN 2010 % RETURNS


14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1 -2 -4 -6 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 % GAIN

CHART NO 5.5

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FII NET INFLOW IN 2010 TABLE OF FII NET INFLOW 2010 MONTH GROSS PURCHASE Cr JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL 620070.30 40795.70 60009.60 61602.90 50614.80 54930.60 59332.40 61973.40 81024.80 85490.20 89082.60 61475.30 768402.60 62373.20 38682.20 41176.00 51838.40 59244.70 44686.00 42211.80 50788.10 51829.00 51829.00 70562.70 59999.20 634110.70 GROSS SALE Cr NET INFLOW ( Cr) 5902.40 2113.50 18833.60 9764.50 -8629.90 10244.60 17120.60 11185.30 29195.80 29195.80 18519.90 1416.10 140497.20

Source : moneycontrol.com

TABLE NO 5.6

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CHART OF NET INFLOW 2010

NET INLOW
35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC -5000 -10000 -15000 NET INLOW

CHART 5.6

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SENSEX GAIN VS FII NET INFLOW 2010 TABLE NO 5.7 MONTH SENSEX GAIN (%)
0.437 6.68 0.1765 -3.49 4.463 0.945 0.575 11.670 -0.183 -2.55 5.06

FII NET INFLOW (Cr)


2113.50 18833.60 9764.50 -8629.90 10244.60 17120.60 11185.30 29195.80 29195.80 18519.90 1416.10

FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

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35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 SENSEX GAIN (%) 10000 FII NET INFLOW (Cr) 5000 0 -5000 -10000 -15000 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

CHART NO 5.7 INTERPRETATION From the given table, the Sensex gain maximum return 11.670% during the month of September 2010 when the FIIs inflow was 29195 Cr.. And the Sensex loss -3.49% in the month of May, where the FII net inflow was -8629.90. That means the Sensex was changing according to the inflow and out flow of investment during the months of 2010.

*(The Sensex return is not only depend upon FII)*

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5.3 INCRESE IN NUMBER OF FII & SENSEX RETURNS (%) TABLE NO 5.8

YEAR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

NO OF FII REGISTERD 517 637 823 993 1219 1594 1706 1747

SENSEX RETURN (%)


72.889 13.079 42.334 46.701 47.146 -46.522 81.032 17.177

15/Mar 06/Jul 28/Oct 18/Feb 11/Jun 03/Oct 24/Jan 18/May 08/Sep 00/Jan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Month SENSEX POINT

CHART NO 5.8

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INTERPRETATION Today ,there are 1747 FII registered in the country as against last year number of 1706 an additional of 41. Year 2009 saw 112 FII getting registered. This means despite record inflow, the number of registered FII s has declined . In fact this is the lowest addition in any calendar year from the data analyzed from 2003. This means that the investment that the Indian market has received is majority through the FII registered earlier

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5.4 Calculation of correlation between FII investment and sensex movement


Analysis is done for finding the correlation between FII investment and the sensex fluctuation during the period from 2000-2010. Net yearly FII investment is calculated by subtracting the gross sell value from the gross purchase value in the particular year by FII. And the fluctuation in sensex is calculated by subtracting previous years closing point from the current year. CALCULATION OF SENSEX FLUCTUATION
YEAR SENSEX 5005.82 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3972.12 3262.33 3377.28 5838.96 6602.69 9397.93 13,786.91 20,286.99 9,647.31 17,464.81 20,509.09 -1033.70 -709.79 114.95 2641.68 763.73 2795.24 4388.98 7000.08 -10639.68 7817.50 3044.28 FLUCTUATIONS

TABLE NO 5.9

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AnalysisTABLE OF CORRELATION YEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 NET FII INFLOW (X) 6370.50 13294.70 3627.27 29953.20 38688.40 77106.68 31281.08 70940.05 -53051.70 85367.60 134167 FLUCTUATIONS Dx= X- x/11 IN BSE (Y) -1033.70 -709.79 114.95 2641.68 763.73 2795.24 4388.98 7000.08 -10639.68 7817.50 3044.28 TABLE NO 5.10 2391.0 9315.2 -352.23 25973.7 34708.9 73127.18 27301.58 66960.55 -57031.2 81388.1 130187.5 -2505 -2181.09 -1356.35 1170.38 -707.57 1323.94 2917.68 5528.78 -12110.98 6346.2 1572.98 Dy=Y- Y/11

X=437744.8Cr Mean , X/11 =3979.5Cr

Y = 16183.67 Cr Mean y/11 =1471.3Cr

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STANDERD DEVIATION

S.D = (X -X)2 /n S.D = 2242521305.5142 / 11 =45151.4736 S.D = (Y-Y)2 /n S.D = 22668841263.8049 /11 =45369.07

Coefficient of Correlation

Coefficient of Correlation =

dxdy dx2 * dy2

r = 1998685763.998/(47355.266)*(150561.752) r= 0.28 INTERPRETATION The Coefficient of Correlation analysis between FIIs net inflow and Sensex return from 2000-2010 gives a correlation of 0.28 which is a low degree positive correlation that means the Sensex movement is not much related to the FII investment during the period 2000 to 2010
.

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REGRESSION ANALYSIS

X (FII) Arithmetic mean Standard deviation correlation coefficient = 3979.50 Cr 14278.15 0.28 Y-Y

Y (SENSEX FLUCTUATION) 1471.30 45396.07

Regression equation of Y on X is

= byx ( X-X )

Regression coefficient byx = r.(S.D OF Y/S.D OF X) = 0.28 (45396.07/14278.15) = 0.89 Y -1471.24 = 0.89 (X-39794.98) Y = 0.89X-9671.354 When X = 1000Cr INTERPRETATION The regression analysis between FIIs investment and Sensex fluctuation gives an equation of Y = 0.89X-9671.354. Which gives a negative Sensex fluctuation when a value of X (FIIs NET INFLOW) is given. Y = -9390.354

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CORRELATION BETWEEN FII & BSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE YEAR 2010 TABLE TO FIND STANDERD DEVIATION

MONTH

NET FII INFLOW (X)

FLUCTUATIONS IN BSE (Y)

Dx= X- X

Dy=Y- Y/11

FEB MAR

2113.5 18833.6 9764.5 -8629.5 10244.6 17120.6 11185.3 29195.8 29195.8 18519.9 1416.10

71.59 1098.22 30.94 -614.08 756.27 167.39 102.83 2098.00 -36.78 -511.09 987.84 TABLE 5.11

-10519.28 6200.82 -2868.28 -21262.68 -2388.18 4487.82 -1447.48 16563,02 16563.02 5887.12 -11216.78

-305.78 720.85 -346.43 -991.45 378.90 -209.98 -274.54 1720.63 -414.15 -888.46 610.47

APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

X = 1389606 Mean = X/11 = 12632.78 Y = 4151.13 Mean = Y/11 = 377.37


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STANDERD DEVIATION

S.D = (X-X)2 /n = 1346514738/11 = 11063.92

S.D = (Y-Y)2 /n

= 6273099.017/11 = 755.17

COEFFICIENT OF CORRELATION Coefficient of Correlation r= dxdy dx2 * dy2 r = 79441995.98 (36694.88)* (2504.61) r = 0.86 INTERPRETATION It is a high degree positive correlation that means in the year 2010 the sensex movement is almost directly proportional to the movements of FIIs investments

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5.5 TREND ANALYSIS

TABLE OF TREND ANALYSIS


YEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FII NET INFLOW (Cr) 6370.50 13294.70 3627.27 29953.20

% CHANGE 100.00 208.69 -56.93 470.18 607.30 1210.37 491.02 1113.57 -832.76 1340.04 2106.06

38688.40

77106.68

31281.08

70940.05

-53051.70

85367.60 134167

TABLE NO 5.12

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FII s Influence On Sensex Over The Period 2000-2010

Here the base year is 2000, in which FII net inflow was 6370.50 Cr. And it is assigned as 100 point. The trend analysis is conducted by calculating percentage change in FII net inflow in each year in relation to the base year INTERPRETATION From the analysis it is known that the net inflow of money by FII during the period from 2001-08 is fluctuating in nature. The growing Indian economy and increasing GDP growth rate has resulted in a positive trend towards FII investment, and from the year 2009 it is increasing in nature.

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FUTURE TREND ANALYSIS TABLE OF TREND ANALYSIS

YEAR

NET INFLOW(Y)

X2

XY

2006

31281.08

-2

-62562.16

2007

70940.05

-1

-70940.05

2008

-53051.70

2009

85367.60

85367.60

2010

134167.00

268334.00

TABLE NO 5.13

a = y/n = 268704.03/5 = 53704.806 b = (XY)/(X2) = 220199.39/10 = 22019.939 Future year , Y = a + b X. BY putting the value of X as 3,4,7

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TABLE OF FUTURE TREND ANALYSIS

YEAR

NET INFLOW (FUTURE) IN Cr 119800.62

2011

2012

141820.562

2013

163840.501

2014

185860.44

2015

207880.379

TABLE NO 5.14

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TREND ANALYSIS
250000

200000

150000 YEAR NET INFLOW (FUTURE) 100000

50000

0 1 2 3 4 5

CHART NO 5.9 INTERPRETATION From the trend analysis (advanced) of FII net inflow to the Indian economy, it is found that the trend is increasing in nature. That means the FIIs will increase their inflow of money in future also.

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CHAPTER VI FINDINGS, CONCLUSION & SUGGESTIONS


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6.1 FINDINGS THE PERFORMANCE OF SENSEX y From the study it is found that the performance of Sensex is fluctuating. The Sensex saw many ups and downs from its opening year 1991 FIIS INFLOW TO INDIAN MARKET y The study on the inflow of FII to the Indian equity market has shown that the inflow is also fluctuating and it is increasing in recent years. NUMBER OF REGISTERD FIIs V/S SENSEX RETURN y The study on increasing number of FII registered under by SEBI, shows that the value of Sensex is not much related to the number of FII registered in recent years .Today ,there are 1747 FII registered in the country as against last year number of 1706 an additional of 41. Year 2009 saw 112 FII getting registered. This means despite record inflow, the number of registered FIIs had declined. This means that the investment that the Indian market has received is majority through the FII registered earlier RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RETURN y From the correlation study between sensex movement and FII inflow , found that the fluctuations in sensex is not much related to the FII investment FINDINGS FROM TREND ANALYSIS From the trend analysis it is observed that the trend in FII inflow to the Indian economy is positive in nature. FIIS INVESTMENT AND SENSEX

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6.2 CONCLUSION
Foreign Institutional Investors, who invest their money in different countries in order to get a good portfolio of investment. And India has been in the list of their portfolio for many years. The increasing GDP growth rate and the overall development of India in different sectors like industrial and agricultural field and others are the prime reason for the increasing nature of FIIs inflow. There is a positive correlation between stock indices and FIIs but FIIs didnt have any significant impact on Indian Stock Market. Also the coefficient of determination is less in all the case. It shows the absence of linear relation between FII and stock index. This does not mean that there is no relation between them. One of the reasons for absence of any linear relation can also be due to the sample data. The data was taken on yearly basis. Also FII is not the only factor affecting the stock indices. There are other major factors that influence the bourses in the stock market. And from the FIIs analysis on Sensex return, it can be concluded that FII do have any significant impact on the Indian Stock Market but there are other factors like government policies, budgets, bullion market, inflation, economical and political condition, etc. do also have an impact on the Indian stock market.

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6.3 SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS


After the analysis of the project study, following recommendations can be made: y From the analysis there could not find a good positive relationship between FII's and sensex return (may be because of the data collected is on the yearly basis & sensex return is not only dependent upon FII's investment only). They are need to be encouraged to enter in Indian market. Because their absence result in huge change in the market Number of FII's get registered is decreasing in nature . It may be because of nature of procedure. Simplifying procedures and relaxing entry barriers for business activities and providing investor friendly laws and tax system for foreign investors helps them to come and invest in India Somewhere, a restriction related to the track record of Sub- Accounts is also to be made on the investors who withdraw money out of the Indian stock market . Encourage industries to grow to make FIIs an attractive junction to invest.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOOKS
I.M Panday Financial Management, Vikas Publishing house Private ltd, New Delhi, 2009 Kothary CR Reserch Methodology New Age International Publishers, New Delhi 2006 Prasanna Chandra, Financial Management, Tata McGraw Hill publishing company Ltd, New Delhi. 2001. Uma Sekaran ,Reserch Methodology For Business, John Wile And Sons,Inc

WEBSITES
www . bse.india..com www . nse india. com www. moneycontrol. . com www.hedgeequities.com www.sebi.com

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