Assessment of Vulnerability and Adaptation of Water Resources to Climate Change in Egypt Dr. Bayoumi B.

Attia1
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT

Abstract Egypt is an arid country that relies on the river Nile as its main and almost exclusive resource of fresh water to meet the increasing demands of agricultural, industrial, and domestic sectors. Despite being at the bottom end of the river, Egypt is the largest user of Nile waters at present. Several studies showed that the Nile is very sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes (e.g. Conway and Hulme, 1993; e.g. Gleick, 1991) mainly because of its low runoff/rainfall ratio (4%) (IPCC, 1998). The prolonged 1979-1987 drought forced Egypt to reduce its water use despite the inter-annual storage in Lake Nasser behind the High Aswan Dam, which clearly shows the vulnerability of Egypt to changes in river flows that climate change may produce. Being the most downstream country on the Nile, Egypt is affected by climate change impacts, not only within its borders, but also within the whole basin, which it shares with ten other countries. Economic developments in upstream countries and measures they might take to adapt to climate change are likely to put more pressure on water resources in Egypt. Therefore, it is of prime importance for Egypt, amongst other Nile countries, to assess the hydrological impacts of climate change on the Nile River. IPCC (2000) issued a special report on emission scenarios (SRES) that presented more than 40 scenarios based on different visions of how the world may develop in the 21st century, the sources of energy it will use, and how the communities will solve their problems. This paper will assess and analyze the Egyptian water resources system vulnerability under climate change by presenting the results of climatic scenarios based on 3 GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4, and HadCM3). These three models were selected based on the proximity of their simulated baseline climate to the observed as reported in LNDFC (2005b). For each model, mean annual temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) are displayed for 2 of the SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B2) for three future 30-year time slices (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099) in addition to the baseline period (1961-1990). In addition, the paper discusses the role of High Aswan Dam (HAD) in the water system and reviews some studies about the dam operations under climate change. Keywords: The Nile, climatic scenarios, GCM, SRES, Aswan High Dam, Egypt

Address: Zahraa ElMaadi-Teiba Towers, building a/2 ap. 608 Maadi, Cario, Egypt Tel./Fax +2 02 5171015; Mobile: +2 010 1649820, E-mail: attia_bayoumi@yahoo.com 1

1. Introduction:
For developed countries which have been contributing the most to the problem, mitigation is inevitable besides adaptation. For developing countries such as Egypt, the contribution to GHG emission has been low and is not expected to be considerable in the near future except for a few countries (e.g. China, India, Brazil). Therefore, the most, and sometimes the only, viable option for these countries is adaptation. Reduction of emissions may be beneficiary in these countries because it alleviates other problems such as pollution and environmental degradation, and encourages the transfer of clean technology. However, it will not contribute much to the solution of the global problem.In order to assess the vulnerability and adaptation potential of the Egyptian water resources system to climate change, the sensitivity of each component of the system should be assessed. Then, the possible impacts of climate change on these systems will be evaluated through a set of scenarios. This will be followed by assessing the adaptive capacity of the system focusing on the capability of the HAD to absorb changes due to climatic variability and change. Finally, potential adaptation measures for each component are suggested and the constraints and gaps in the presented analysis are highlighted to pave the road for further work in this respect.

2. The Egyptian Water Resources System

Egypt lies in the northeastern corner of the African continent and has a total area of about 1 million km2. It is bordered in the north by the Mediterranean Sea, in the east by the Gaza Strip and the Red Sea, in the south by Sudan and in the west by the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya. The Egyptian terrain consists of a vast desert plateau interrupted by the Nile Valley and Delta which occupy about 4 percent of the total country area. The land surface rises on both sides of the valley reaching about 1 000 m above sea level in the east and about 800 m above sea level in the west. The highest point of the country, at Mount Catherine in Sinai, is 2 629 m above sea level and the lowest point, at the Qattara Depression in the northwest, is 133 m below mean sea level. Most of the cultivated land is located close to the banks of the Nile River, its main branches and canals, and in the Nile Delta. Rangeland is restricted to a narrow strip, only a few kilometers wide, along the Mediterranean coast and its bearing capacity is quite low. There is no forest land. The total cultivated area (arable land plus permanent crops) is 3.4 million ha, or about 3 percent of the total area of the country. Hot dry summers and mild winters characterize Egypts climate. Rainfall is very low, irregular and unpredictable. Annual rainfall ranges between a maximum of about 200 mm in the northern coastal region to a minimum of nearly zero in the south, with an annual average of 51 mm. Summer temperatures are extremely high, reaching 38C to 43C with extremes of 49C in the southern and western deserts. The northern areas on the Mediterranean coast are much cooler, with 32C as a maximum.

2.1 The Supply System

Rainfall in Egypt is very scarce except in a narrow band along the northern coastal areas, where an insignificant rain-fed agriculture is practiced. Rainfall occurs in winter in the form of scattered showers along the Mediterranean shoreline. The total amount of

rainfall does not exceed 1.5 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year. Flash floods occurring due to short-period heavy storms are considered a source of environmental damage especially in the Red Sea area and Southern Sinai. Egypt receives more than 95% of its various fresh water resources from outside its international borders. The average annual yield of the river is estimated at 84 BCM at Aswan. This yield is subject to wide seasonal variation. Nevertheless, Egypts annual share of the river water is determined by international agreements by 55.5 BCM. Groundwater is also an important source of fresh water in Egypt both within the Nile system and in the desert. Groundwater in the Nile aquifer cannot be considered an additional source of water as it get its water from percolation losses from irrigated lands and seepage losses from irrigation canals. Therefore, its yield must not be added to the countrys water resources but rather be considered as a reservoir in the Nile River system with about 7.5 BCM per year of rechargeable live storage. Groundwater also exists in the non-renewable deep aquifers in the Western Desert region and Sinai with the current total abstraction estimated at only 0.9 BCM per year. On the other hand, most of the available groundwater in the desert is non-renewable and associated with a high development cost. Figure 2.1 shows the quantities of Egypts water resources. Reuse of drainage water in the Nile Delta has been adopted as an official policy since the late seventies. The policy calls for recycling agriculture drainage water by pumping it from main and branch drains and mixing it with fresh water in main and branch canals.
Eg yp t W a te r R e sou rce s B C M

55.5

1.3 N il e

0.9

De e p g o un d w a te r Ra in fa ll

Figure 2.1 Egypt's Water Resources 3. The Demand System 3.1 Agriculture The agricultural sector is the largest user, and consumer, of water in Egypt, with its share exceeding 85% of the total demand for water. The agriculture land base consists of old land in the Nile Valley and Delta, rain fed areas, several oases, and lands reclaimed from the desert. The total area of irrigated land in the year 2000 was approximately 7.7 million feddans (3.25 million hectares) and expected to be 11 million feddans (4.6 million hectares) by the year 2017 due to horizontal expansion and the implementation of the two mega projects of El-Salam Canal at North Sinai and Toshka at south valley

(NWRP, 2005). Consequently, the agriculture demand is expected to increase from 57.8 to 63.6 BCM taking into consideration the rising of irrigation efficiency by extending the irrigation improvement projects to cover most of the old lands, and applying modern irrigation techniques, e.g., sprinkler and drip irrigation, in the new reclamation lands. 3.2 Industry Industry is a growing sector in the national economy of Egypt. There is no accurate estimate for the current industrial water requirement. However, in 1990, the general authority for industry made a survey that covered 90% of the public sector major factories to estimate industrial needs and requirements. The study included 321 public sector factories representing the main activities of the industrial sector. The results of the study were used to estimate the water requirement for the industrial sector during the year 2000 where the estimated value was 7.5 BCM/year. 3.3 Municipalities Compared to the agricultural water demand the municipal water demand small, but given the health aspects involved, this supply will receive priority over all other users. The government policy with respect to drinking water is to have full coverage of both urban and rural areas including a further improvement of the quality of the services. 3.4 Navigation The main inland waterway is Nile and few other main canals. Inland waterways are used by traditional sailing boats for the transport of building materials, river barges and hotel boats. The main navigation activity is the Nile touristic cruises between Aswan and Luxor and the transportation of commodities between Upper and Lower Egypt. 3.5 Hydropower The total existing hydropower capacity is 2.81 GW, with total annual energy of 12,000 GWH or about 16% of the gross national generated electricity. The High Aswan Dam (HAD) hydropower capacity is 2.1 GW, i.e. 75% of the total hydropower capacity, while the capacity of Old Aswan Dam, Esna Barrage, and Nag Hammadi Barrage are 22%, 3%, and 0.1% of the total hydropower capacity. Small hydropower stations are still under construction or extension at Al-Lahoon Regulator and Nag Hammadi Barrage. 3.6 Recreation and Environmental Demands The aquatic resource base is extensive and includes fresh, brackish, and marine waters. A large part of fish production of the Mediterranean Sea has always depended on the discharge of nutrients from the Nile. This inflow decreased after the construction of High Aswan Dam but was partly compensated by increased drainage of domestic waste nutrients.

3.7 Institutional Setting The Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) is the main entity responsible for water resources planning, development and management in Egypt. Historically, MWRI has played the roles of policy formulator, system developer, system manager,

system operator, and regulator. However, several stakeholders (including other governmental Ministries and agencies) are involved in water use, planning and management; with interactions (such as domestic treatment plants, industries, or farms) that affect both the water quantity and quality. MWRI formulates draft policy and implement-approved policy, policy approval is the role of the legislature; with multisectoral (economic, social, political and cultural) factors. The MWRI is ultimately dependent on the State for its budget which restricts the resources available for improvements, modernization and rehabilitation.

4. Previous Studies on the River Nile vulnerability to climate change:

Yates and Strzepek (1998) applied a monthly water balance model of the Nile River basin (WBNILE) for assessing potential climatic change impacts on Nile runoff. The WBNILE model divides the Nile into 12 sub-catchments, including characterization of the lakes region of equatorial Africa and the Sudd swamp. The model uses mean monthly climate variables of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine hours, and each basin is calibrated from observed monthly averaged discharge. Areally averaged temperature and precipitation changes from five GCMs were imposed on each subbasin for assessing climate change impacts on runoff. Results showed the sensitivity of the basin to climate fluctuations, because four of five GCMs predicted significantly larger flows in equatorial Africa and the expansion of the Sudd swamps, whereas there was a range of results for the Ethiopian highlands of the Blue Nile and Atbara basins depending on the GCM scenario. A more recent assessment of climate change impacts on Lake Victoria was performed by Tate et al. (2004) using 2 transient GCM scenarios from HadCM3 based on the recent IPCC SRES storylines (IPCC, 2000). The resultant change in outflow showed a reduction of 2.6-4.2% by the 2050s followed by an increase between 6.3% and 9.7% in the 2080s with respect to the 1961-90 baseline. The ranges correspond to the different climate scenarios and two different used baselines (observed and modelled). The earlier study of Conway and Hulme (1996) presented the results from 3 GCM equilibrium scenarios with rainfall changes between -1% and +5% of the 1961-90 mean resulting in runoff changes between -9% to +12% for Lake Victoria by 2025. As shown by earlier studies, GCM experiments show very different pictures of climate change over the Nile basin. While they all agree on temperature rise, they disagree on the direction of precipitation change. Analysis of 16 GHG transient experiments from 7 different GCMs by Elshamy (2000) reveals an average increase in temperature over the basin by 2-4.3C by the 2050s predicted by the different experiments. Temperature changes are not uniform over the basin, with higher temperature rises in the more arid regions of Northern Sudan and most of Egypt and lower rises around the equator. Although most of the analyzed experiments showed an increase in precipitation over the basin (of up to 18%), some experiments showed a reduction (of up to 22%), while one experiment showed almost no change. Given the above mentioned high sensitivities of the different sub-basins to rainfall changes, these changes in rainfall are expected to cause very large changes in the flow regime of the River Nile. Apart from research using climate models trends are being studied in the observed records. Conway (2000) claims an increasing trend between 1900 up to 1965 in the Blue

Nile followed by a prolonged decline until 1997. There is a relationship between rainfall over the region (and hence Blue Nile river flows) and the El Nio-Southern Oscillation and the Indian summer monsoon. He did not find a relationship, however, with rainfall over the Lake Victoria Basin. Annual lake levels in Lake Victoria from 1896 to 1998 show a rapid and large rise in lake levels that occurred after 1961 with a smaller rise occurring in 1978 and a significant rise in 1997. Mohamed et al. (2005) applied a regional climate model to the Nile Basin, with a special modification to include routing of the Nile flood over the Sudd. The impact of the wetland on the Nile hydroclimatology has been studied by comparing two model scenarios: the present climatology, and a drained Sudd scenario (building the Jonglei canal). The results indicate that draining the entire Sudd has negligible impact on the regional water cycle owing to the relatively small area covered by the wetland. However, the impacts for the local climate are considerable. The Lake Nasser Flood and Drought Control project (LNDFC/ICC) (2005) constructed climatic scenarios (low, central, high) based on the results from 11 GCMs for the SRES B2 emission scenario. The scenarios were constructed using the MAGICC/SCENGEN approach and were taken from the OECD study (Agrawala et al., 2004) which presented mean annual and seasonal (winter and summer) temperature and precipitation changes over the source areas of the Nile basin. The study used these uniform changes to assess the impacts of climate change on the inflows to Lake Nasser showing a wide range of changes for 2030, 2050, and 2100. According to the low scenario, Egypts share of the Nile waters declines to only 7 BCM by 2100, rendering irrigated agriculture impossible. On the contrary, the high scenario would permit doubling the irrigated area by 2100. The central scenario predicts a modest increase in the annual share of about 3, 5, and 8 BCM by 2030, 2050, and 2100 respectively. In summary, the studies clearly show that the assessment of impact of climatic change on the Nile is strongly dependent on the choice of the climate scenario and the underlying GCM experiment. For temperature although the magnitude of the change varies, the direction of change is clear, all models expect temperatures to rise. For rainfall, however, not only the magnitude varies substantially across the models, but even the signal of the change varies. The choice of the emission scenario also leads to different estimates. There are large uncertainties attached at all the steps of scenario construction that need to be quantified in the analysis of future impacts. In addition, the reviewed studies show that the Nile flow is extremely sensitive to climate, and especially, rainfall changes due to the highly non-linear relationship between precipitation and runoff. A given change in precipitation may be doubled or tripled when the change in run-off is calculated.

5. Climate Change Impacts on Egyptian Water Resources 5.1 Construction Scenarios of Climate

The construction of regional climatic scenarios for climate impact studies requires many steps, where each step is associated with a set of models and thus a range of uncertainty ( ). IPCC (2000) issued a special report on emission scenarios (SRES) that presented more than 40 scenarios based on different visions of how the world may develop in the 21 st

century, the sources of energy it will use, and how the communities will solve their problems. These scenarios are grouped into four families A1, B1, A2, and B2 as illustrated in Table 5.1 Assumptions Used to Construct Future SRES Greenhouse Gas Scenarios.

Figure 5.2 Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change.

Source: Hadley Centre (2001)

Table 5.1 Assumptions Used to Construct Future SRES Greenhouse Gas Scenarios Scenario A1 Description very rapid economic growth; low population growth; rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology; economic and cultural convergence and capacity building people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality strengthening regional cultural identities; an emphasis on family values and local traditions; high population growth; less concern for rapid economic development rapid change in economic structures "dematerialization" and introduction of clean technologies; emphasis on global solutions to environmental and social sustainability; concerted efforts for rapid technology development; dematerialization of the economy emphasis on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability; a heterogeneous world with less rapid, and more diverse technological change; strong emphasis on community initiative

A2

B1

B2

First, scenarios of future emissions of GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.) and aerosols are constructed. The next step is to translate these emission scenarios to concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere.

5.2 Climatic Scenarios for Egypt

Most of the presented studies used climatic scenarios that were directly taken from GCM results. In the following sections, climatic scenarios based on 3 GCMs (CGCM2, ECHAM4, and HadCM3) are presented. These three models were selected based on the proximity of their simulated baseline climate to the observed as reported in LNDFC (2005b). For each model, mean annual temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) are displayed for 2 of the SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B2) for three future 30-year time slices (2010-2039, 2040-2069, 2070-2099) in addition

to the baseline period (1961-1990). In order to get a better illustration of future changes, anomalies of the three variables with respect to the baseline are also displayed. For temperature, anomalies are calculated as differences between future temperature and those for the baseline period. For precipitation and ETo, anomalies are calculated as ratios of future estimates to those of the baseline. It should be noted that the baseline is that simulated by the models not the observed. The anomalies provide a way to circumvent the model bias resulting from errors in simulating the observed climate. The scenarios are presented at the scale of the GCM without downscaling or interpolation. The analysis is based on grid cell values and their locations without detailed calculations for certain regions. All figures have been plotted using the Nile Forecast System (NFS v5.0) (Nile Forecast Center, 2005) ETo has been calculated from GCM climate variables using the FAO-approved PenmanMonteith method as detailed by (Allen et al., 1998). The variables used to calculate ETo for each model as shown in Table 5.2. It is worth noting that each model reports a different variable for humidity. Table 5.2 Variables Used to Construct Climatic Scenarios Variable Unit
CGCM2 HadCM3 ECHAM4

2m mean surface air K temperature Total precipitation Total incident radiation solar mm/d W/m2 m/s K % kg/kg Pa

+ + + +

+ + + + +

+ + + + +

Mean scalar wind speed Dew point temperature Relative Humidity Specific humidity Mean sea level pressure

+ + + +

The former model predicts large amounts of rainfall over the western desert (up to 160 mm). It also simulates generally lower temperatures for Egypt with higher temperature near the Mediterranean that for the desert and Upper Egypt. As a result, the calculated ETo using CGCM2 output is one the low side (the maximum is only 2100 mm). These observations shade some doubts about the results of this model for Egypt. The precipitation and temperature patterns of HadCM3 and ECHAM4 are broadly similar with higher temperatures towards the south and the east and higher rainfall on the north coast and Sinai. The calculated ETo patterns from both models are also broadly similar with high values in the south around Aswan. ETo values decrease going northwards. HadCM3 predicts generally higher rates for ETo for all gridcells covering Egypt compared to ECHAM4. The following sections present an analysis of future changes over Egypt based on the results of the three models for the A2 and B2 scenarios. 5.2.1 Temperature By the 2020s, both CGCM2 and HadCM3 predict similar values of warming under the B2 scenario that are nearly uniform over Egypt (around 1.5C). ECHAM4 predicts a

smaller value of warming for this scenario (about 0.8C). By the 2050s, a pattern appears for the three models with less warming in the north and more to the south. However, the overall picture for both HadCM3 and CGCM2 remains similar with an average increase in temperature of about 2.5C. The lower increase in temperature at the north coast is more apparent in the results of ECHAM4 which predicts a warming between 1.5-2.1C. By the 2080s, the temperature increase continues with high anomalies in the south and west. The warming ranges between 2.3C and 3.7C across the different models and across Egypt. The predicted warming is higher for the A2 scenario by all models. By the 2080s, some areas in southern Egypt may be warmer by as much as 5.85C according to the CGCM2 model. Table 5.3 shows changes in temperature over Egypt as averaged from GCM gridcells covering Egypt (number varies from 9 for CGCM2 to 16 for ECHAM4). Table 5.3 Spatially Averaged Temperature Anomalies (C) over Egypt A2 Model CGCM2 ECHAM4 HadCM3 2020s
1.38 1.04 1.34

B2 2080s
4.19 3.81 4.26

2050s
2.70 2.13 2.54

2020s
1.32 0.78 1.48

2050s
2.14 1.78 2.27

2080s
2.91 2.70 3.19

5.2.2 Precipitation CGCM2 still predicts large rainfall values for the desert parts of Egypt but as this bias is carried from the baseline simulation as indicated above. The three models predict broadly similar precipitation patterns for all time slices. Apart from CGCM2, the northern coast remains the only area with significant precipitation. Observing the anomalies, the three models indicate reductions in rainfall over the northern coast. The increases in rainfall over other parts of Egypt (especially for ECHAM4 which reach up to 5 folds) are superficial and have no significance because the total values remain small. Reductions over the coastal precipitation under the A2 scenario do not differ much from those predicted under the B2 scenario. The predicted reductions in coastal precipitation range between 10 and 30% depending on the model and scenario used and the time slice considered. Although rainfall is over Egypt is not an important water resource, these changes will be significant from the environmental point of view, especially when coupled with the warming trend mentioned above. 5.2.3 Potential Evapotranspiration Potential evapotranspiration has been calculated for the 3 future time slices from simulated climatic variables of the three considered GCMs using the Penman-Montheith method for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Values as high as 4200 mm/year are predicted for the south of Egypt under the A2 scenario. Anomalies (ratios to the baseline) have been calculated to better visualize the changes. Due to the reduction in precipitation at the coast and lack of significant precipitation elsewhere, ETo is mainly controlled by temperature. Thus, the increasing temperature

causes ETo to rise steadily with time expect for a predicted reduction under B2 scenario by ECHAM4 for the 2050s in some regions (Middle Egypt). Increases of up to 7% are predicted by the 2020s (CGCM2 B2). The increase reaches about 9% by the 2050s and 14% by the 2080s (CGCM2). It should be noted, however, that CGCM2 initially underestimates the baseline ETo compared to the other two models and thus, these increases result in values less than those predicted by the other two models. The increases predicted by ECHAM4 are generally smaller in percentage terms than HadCM3 and CGCM2. The implications of higher temperatures and higher evaporative demands for agricultural water use in Egypt (and also upstream in Sudan) may be as important as changes in the Nile water supply. Losses are likely to increase from the Nile and the extensive system of irrigation canals, in addition to increases in crop water use, and increases in other demands. Estimating the possible amounts of these losses is a complex task. In terms of climate change impacts, this is an important issue that should be considered, alongside direct physiological effects of higher temperatures on crops. El Shaer et al. (1997) found that maize and wheat yields and water-use efficiencies were lower under future climatic scenarios compared to current climate conditions, even with consideration of the beneficial effects of the increase of CO2 concentration. Higher temperatures shortened the grain-filling period resulting in crop yield reductions Daily evapotranspiration increased in the warmer climate although it was partially offset by improvements in crop water use efficiency. Table shows the average increases in ETo over Egypt as calculated from GCM gridcells covering the country. Table 5.4 Spatially Averaged ETo Anomalies (%) over Egypt A2 Model CGCM2 ECHAM4 HadCM3 2020s
6% 1% 4%

B2 2080s
14% 9% 12%

2050s
9% 4% 7%

2020s
7% 1% 4%

2050s
8% 4% 6%

2080s
10% 5% 8%

5.3 Implications of Climate Change on Water Resources System Operation

Several of the past studies considered the implications of changes in the Nile flows, and in some cases changes in demand, on the water quota of Egypt and consequently on the economic situation (e.g. Strzepek et al., 1995), especially with regard to the agricultural sector. These studies assumed that the 1959 NILE WATER AGREEMENT will still be followed and distributed the increases/reductions in Nile yields at Lake Nasser between Egypt and Sudan according to the agreement. For the purpose of the treaty, the Nile natural yield at Aswan was estimated as 84 BCM (1900-1959 average) and losses from Lake Nasser (mainly due to open water evaporation) were estimated as 10 BCM on average. The treaty allocated the remaining 74 BCM by 3:1 ratio giving 55.5 BCM to Egypt (75% of 74 BCM), 18.5 BCM to Sudan (25%). Conway and Hulme (1996) assumed that the 3:1 Egypt/Sudan allocation ratio will be used to distribute the Nile yield and thus estimated water available to Egypt under

changed climate using this ratio evaporation losses were kept at 10 BCM. They then used the available Nile water with estimates of future water demand and utilization of other water (re)sources to build water balances for 2025 which showed that a deficit of -5.8 BCM may be expected under the dry scenario, and a surplus of 8.8 BCM may be expected under the wet scenario. However, the 3:1 distribution ratio is clearly an assumption as the treaty has a special provision for extra water gained from planned projects in Sudan (e.g. Jonglei canal) as to distribute the extra yield (over 84 BCM) at Aswan equally between Egypt and Sudan. Strzepek et al. (1995; 1996) and Yates and Strzepek (1998) used this rule and distributed the changes (both negative and positive) from the agreement mean of 84 BCM equally between Egypt and Sudan after allowing for increases in evaporation losses due to temperature rise. This enabled the quantification of water availability for Egypt which they used to further assess the implications of climate change on the Egyptian economy. However, applying this rule to negative changes may not be correct as the treaty was amended to have a sliding scale to reduce the quotas of Egypt and Sudan in case of low floods (see next section). The scale cannot be applied for very large reductions and thus the treaty may need to be revisited. Sayed (2004) multiplied the reduction/increase ratios directly to Egyptian quota (55.5 BCM) to get the adjusted quota under climate change and compared that to expected future demands. For the optimistic scenario (+32% increase Egypts share becomes 73.3 BCM), he assumed that the irrigation expansion plan will be implemented by 2030, accompanied with large increases in industrial and municipal demands due to high rates of industrial development and population growth. For the pessimistic scenario (-14% reduction Egypts share becomes 48 BCM), he assumed that about 47% of the agricultural expansion plan will be achieved, accompanied with lower increases in industrial and municipal demands due to lower rates of industrial development and population growth. These lower rates are assumed be a part of adaptation to anticipated water shortage. For both scenarios, in addition to a no-climate change scenario with medium demand growth rates, he built future water balances for 2030 and expected that Egypt will have water shortage exceeding 11 BCM in 2030. The result that Egypt could still face shortage in the optimistic case even with inflow increases of 32% indicates that climate change is not the only factor affecting water resources in Egypt. Adaptation measures along the lines of population control, efficiency improvements, and demandside management are required irrespective of climate change impacts. A few studies investigated the implications of climatic-induced flow changes on the operation of the HAD. These are of great concern here as they indicate how these changes could be managed and how the water resources system can adapt, i.e. they define, partially, the adaptive capacity of the system to climatic changes, which is an important component in the assessment of its vulnerability. Before discussing those studies, a brief overview of the characteristics and current operation of the HAD is presented. 5.3.1 Current Operating Rules of HAD The High Aswan Dam (HAD) is a rockfill dam with a total length of 3,600 m and a maximum height above the Nile bed of 111 m. The HAD was completed in 1968 and is located about 7 km upstream of the Old Aswan Dam (OAD). The total amount of water stored behind the dam in Lake Nasser at the crest level of the dam (183 m above mean

sea level) is 169 BCM, which is about twice the average annual yield of the Nile at Aswan (84 BCM). The operating rules of the High Dam depend on the management of the Egyptian share of the Nile waters according to the 1959 treaty with Sudan. The HAD is considered as an over year storage. That is, the operation of Lake Nasser and the HAD aims to release the Egyptian share downstream the HAD annually, making use of the large storage volume to store water from high flood years to be used during low flood years. During high flood years, when levels are forecasted to exceed 175m on the first of August, the operation programs would be prepared so that the level does not exceed 175m on 1st August in order to allow for the reception of the new flood. Thus, water in excess of the quota could be released in such cases, especially when high years occur in sequence. As from 1 st August, the water requirement are to be released and the levels to be observed. Then, the forecast of the natural river yield is carried out to make possible adjustments to HAD releases according to the expected levels upstream the Dam. In implementing these rules, the possibility of having to increase the releases from the reservoir are taken into account. If the reservoir level exceeds the critical value of 178m, water from the reservoir is spilled to Toshka depression. It is also possible that there will be a succession of low yield years that the reservoir levels continue to decrease to the degree of preventing Egypt and the Sudan from withdrawing their complete requirements. In such cases, a sliding scale for the water requirements of the two countries was agreed in amendment to the 1959 treaty to guarantee that live storage in the reservoir would not be exhausted. It should be noted that, hydropower production gets reduced if the level goes below 160m. 5.3.2 Studies of HAD Operation under Climate Change Sayed (2004) applied the High Aswan Dam (HAD) simulation model (Georgakakos et al., 1995) simulate the impacts of change of inflows to Dongola on the operation of HAD and water availability to Egypt. He used two scenarios for 2030: an optimistic scenario producing 32% increases in flows at Dongola; and a pessimistic scenario that produced 14% reduction in Dongola flows. These scenarios were based on results from 4 GCMs. He used the positive and negative changes in Dongola flows as a multiplier to the historical natural serried (1871-2002) and used the HAD simulation model to calculate changes in Lake Nasser levels and spillage to Toshka in comparison to the base case where the historical series was used without modifications. It should be noted that using these values as multipliers affects the mean and the variance of the resulting series in the same direction, i.e. both the mean and the variance increase for the optimistic case and they both decrease for the pessimistic case. Changes in variability (i.e. variance) are generally expected to be positive, i.e. the variance is expected to increase even if the mean decreases and thus, the results of the pessimistic case may be on the conservative side. The simulations of Sayed (2004) showed that the optimistic scenario is beneficial to Egypt as lake level will not go below 150m eliminating droughts and increasing the Egyptian share but also increasing the frequency and amount of spillage to Toshka depression and increasing the risk for flooding under current operations (there is a considerable chance of 6.7% that the level can exceed 183m). For the pessimistic case, the number of drought years will increase and the lake level will reach its lowest level more frequent than the normal case. There is also a chance, despite small, that the level

will go below 147m. For both cases, adaptation measures need to be taken, despite the perception that the drought case is more harmful. Sayed (2004) took a further step trying to quantify the sustainability of HAD to climate change using a combination of three reservoir performance indices: Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability (RRV). These three in were originally defined by Hashimoto et al. (1982) as described below. It should be noted that the vulnerability index defined here does not encompass all the components of vulnerability as found in climate change impact literature and as defined by IPCC.

6. Adaptation Options for Egyptian Water Resources

6.1 Adaptation to uncertainty
The high uncertainty in determining the direction of climate change impact on the Nile flow necessitates higher flexibility in its operation. Thus, for a moderately wet scenario, adaptation options would include: Operation of the HAD at lower levels to allow more room to receive higher floods. This option has already been studied during the LNFDC project which found that, under current conditions without climate change, it is probably beneficial to lower the 1st August level from 175m to 170m and even 165m with minor increases in drought risks and major benefits via reduction of losses by evaporation and spillage to Toshka. Increases in the irrigated area could be done and thus taking advantage of such beneficial impact.

6.2 Adaptation Increases

to

Inflow

For a highly wet scenario, and in addition to the above options: Additional storage structures may be needed upstream of the HAD to reduce the risk of flooding downstream the dam (high discharges passing through the dam Section 5.3.1) or possible overtopping of the dam. As discussed earlier, Sayed (2004) should that there is more than 6% chance that Lake Nasser level exceed 183m under current operation conditions. Lowering the operating level (the 1st August level) may be sufficient in some cases but if the inflow increases considerably (especially if associated with increased variability as indicated earlier), the capacity may be exhausted. Egypt Built reservoirs in other riparian countries in the past, but things have changed now. However, the Nile Basin Initiative can be a vehicle to take such bold decisions, especially if these reservoirs can have mutual benefits such as flood protection and hydropower production. Increasing water availability to upstream riparians would not be of much interest under such a wet scenario.

6.3 Adaptation Reduction

to

Inflow

For a dryer scenario, irrespective of the level of inflow reduction, Egypt will have to face water shortage. However, without climate change, Egypts water policies have been formulated to face shortage (e.g. MWRI, 1997; NWRP, 2005) due to increases in demands and limited possibilities of augmenting the supplies. Climate change may

exacerbate the problem but current water policies include several strategies that can serve as adaptations to water shortage whatever its reason may be. The following sections list some of the strategies developed under the National Water Resources Plan (NWRP, 2005) which are categorized into three main directions: optimal use of available resources, development of new resources, and water quality preservation/improvement. Most of the text below is adopted/modified from the above mentioned sources 6.3.1 Optimal Use of Available Resources Minimize Water Losses One of the quickest ways of increasing the water availability is through improving the efficiency of water use by minimizing losses. The main losses of the irrigation system are the evaporation from canals and drains, deep percolation especially in new lands, evapotranspiration from weeds on waterways, and leakage from control structures. The main proposed strategies to minimize water losses could be described as: The implementation of the Integrated Irrigation improvement Project (IIIP) which aims to improve the irrigation efficiency in the old lands through: Physical improvement of the irrigation system More efficient and reliable water delivery Better water control Better land and energy use efficiency Augmented farm productivity and farmers income Empowerment and involvement of farmers Quick resolution to water conflicts between farmers Improvement and upgrade of the traditional methods used to maintain the canal network and use of new technologies for weed resistance in order to minimize evaporation and conveyance losses. Redesign of canal network to use the minimum cross-sections to minimize the total surface of water and reduce evaporation loss as well as land used by the network. Recovery of operation and maintenance costs and in some cases the transfer of the management responsibility to water users. Improvement of drainage conditions for better productivity. This will be integrated with the IIIP. Increasing water reuse from drainage and treated sewage. Care will be taken to avoid the use of polluted water. In stead of reusing water from large drains that receive untreated sewage, it is suggested to reuse water from intermediate drains which are less polluted. Reduction of irrigation supplies after rainfall For municipal and industrial water use, demand management holds the potential for improving the efficiency of water use. Suggested demand management measures include: Water pricing for municipalities and industries Public awareness campaigns Improvement of the distribution system (pipelines, tanks, etc.) to reduce leakage.

Reuse of treated wastewater

Cropping Pattern Changes As mentioned earlier, the agricultural sector is considered the main user for water that consumes about 85% of the High Aswan Dam release. Although this percentage will decrease in the future due to the high rate of future growth in other demands, it will represent for a long time the major consumer of water. If water becomes scarce, and one objective is to maximize the economic returns from the available water, these two crops should increase in area cultivated. Therefore, the following policies are proposed to reduce the agriculture water consumption: Replace crops having high consumption (e.g. Sugar Cane and Rice) with those having lower consumption (Sugar Beet and Maize). This may be achieved through implementation incentives such as: o Crop-specific land taxes o Crop production charges (per ton) o Volumetric water pricing o Regulation of the farmers quota (such a regulation should be extended up to the distributarys level at which farmers need to economize on water use). o Effluent fees (only applicable at the agricultural drainage point sources, by estimating/metering the effluent load). o Subsidies (or price flooring) of market/farm-gate prices of the less water intensive crops (e.g. maize). Develop new crop varieties that consume less water (shorter growing season, lower requirements, etc.) 6.3.2 Development of New (Re)sources Nile Waters Possibilities to increase the Nile yield are limited to conservation projects in the upper Nile countries such as the age-old Jonglei canal, Machar, and Bahr El-Ghazal projects. Other new projects that may be beneficial to Egypt from a water resource perspective include the Baro-Akobo scheme. These projects were suggested more than 50 years ago and have to be re-evaluated in terms of their hydrological and environmental impacts taking into consideration climate change. Under wet scenarios, these projects may not be as feasible as thought previously. Under dry conditions, they may not provide the water quantities envisaged and therefore may not be as beneficial. Other developments in the upper Nile countries (especially Ethiopia and Sudan) may reduce the inflow to Lake Nasser. However, they provide additional storage so that the operation of Lake Nasser may be adapted to reduce evaporation and spillage losses. In addition, these reservoirs will redistribute the flow which will benefit Sudan and Egypt in low years. Groundwater Deep groundwater Deserts cover more than 95% of Egypts total area. Groundwater is considered the main resource to provide adequate water supply for sustainable development in these desert

areas. That is because it would be so hard or even impossible to transfer Nile River water to those areas. The aquifers in the Western Desert hold huge quantities of fossil non-renewable water. The total abstraction potential is about 3.5 BCM/year. Most of the development will take place in East Oweinat and the Farafra and Dakhla oases. Some 200-300 and 50-100 MCM/year are potentially available in Sinai and the Eastern desert respectively. Future strategies for Groundwater development should take the following considerations into account to achieve the above listed goals: The renewable groundwater aquifers in some areas are not large enough to sustain large projects with relatively high demands for water, therefore, the abstractions from these aquifers must be within the safe yield and the area of the proposed development projects should be limited to this allowable level of abstraction. Otherwise, these aquifers would be depleted due to over pumping which threatens the sustainability of any existing projects utilizing these aquifers. The amount of the land area that could be cultivated in the western desert and irrigated from the deep groundwater aquifer will depend mainly on the groundwater quality, the cost of pumping, and the economic returns over a long period of time. Cropping patterns should be carefully selected to suit the climatological condition and to provide high revenues as well. Measures should be taken to avoid possible deterioration of the groundwater aquifers, it would be recommended to size the new agricultural projects to small areas (2000 to 5000 feddans) scattered along the aquifers. This will ensure sustainable utilization of that water resource over a longer period of time. In addition, there are vast amounts of unpolluted brackish groundwater of varying salinity (3000- 12000 ppm) in the Nubian sandstone and Mughra aquifers. Potential use of this resource includes aquaculture, salt tolerant cropping, and industry. Brackish water can be desalinated at relatively lower costs than that required for see water and used for cultivating cash crops or even for municipal uses in remote areas. Renewable energy such as solar or wind energy can be used in this respect to reduce the desalination costs. This source can be used as a supplementary source to rainfall water to increase land productivity by cultivating two crops per year instead of one. Shallow Groundwater As mentioned earlier, the groundwater in the Nile valley and Delta region cannot be considered an independent resource as it gets recharged only from seepage losses from the Nile main river, canal and drainage networks, and from deep percolation losses of irrigated lands. The following are some basic considerations that must be taken into account when utilizing such aquifers: These aquifers could be used as storage reservoirs along the Nile River system. It could be used to meet part of the water demands during peak periods and then left to get recharged again during the minimum demands. It can be considered as a storage reservoir with the advantage of no water losses due to evaporation. Use of modern irrigation methods in the new lands (sprinkler or trickle) that uses groundwater as the source of water to prevent water logging and keep the groundwater table far from the root zone. Moreover, this water has good quality and free from suspended matters, which is suitable for such methods.

To increase the agricultural productivity, it is highly recommended to use of vertical wells as a modern drainage system in Upper Egypt. This will prevent the groundwater table from reaching the root zone and avoid any possibility of water logging at the agriculture lands. Groundwater could be used as a source of water for artificial fish fields as it has consistent and steady temperature and good quality. It is recommended to reuse the seepage water losses to the groundwater aquifers through pumping back to satisfy a part of the agricultural demands and conserve a portion of the surface water to reclaim new lands. At tail ends of long mesqas where water shortage is experienced, groundwater may be pumped from low capacity private wells to augment the canal water supply. Rainfall Harvesting Flash floods are considered a natural hazard that occurred due to very heavy storms in a short period of time. The velocity of water is very high and it can make damages in the infrastructure and properties. These types of floods occur in southern Sinai and in the Red Sea plateau where the topography is very steep. Up till now, there are not enough studies about flash floods risk assessment and how to change this natural phenomenon from a hazard into a useful source of water. Estimates show is a possibility to conserve about 2.0 BCM/year from flash floods. For the northern coast, rainfall harvesting techniques may be used to assist rain-fed agriculture. The interception of surface runoff and its storage in the soil profile requires simple and low cost techniques that can be implemented by farmers and thus holds some potential in coastal areas. Desalination Egypt has 1000s of kilometers of shorelines and therefore sea water in abundant. Small desalination plants are implemented for drinking in some distant resorts where other sources are too costly to obtain. However, the cost of desalination of sea water is still too high to render agriculture economically infeasible. Research in new desalination technology is required to reduce the costs, especially with the use of non-conventional energy sources such as wind and solar energy, and even nuclear energy. As mentioned above, desalination of brackish water can improve the economics of such projects. 6.3.3 Water Quality Management One of the major issues facing Egypt is the accelerated decline of water quality. Water quality has a direct effect on the quantity available for a specific use. As the quality of water gets worse, its scope of use narrows, thereby, reducing supplies and intensifying shortages. Therefore, the MPWWR, in coordination with other involved ministries and authorities, aims to implement a long-term strategy to prevent the different sources of pollutants from discharging to the Nile River and other water bodies. Improvement of water quality requires prevention of pollution, treatment of polluted water, and if neither is possible, control of pollution. Preventive Measures For industry: Financial incentives (taxes and subsidies of products and inputs) to promote clean technology

Public disclosure pollution program aiming at forcing incompliant industries to shut down or to adjust due to public pressure. Compliance action plans for industries Public awareness campaigns Moving industries away from vital waterways towards new cities Load-based discharge levies (charges) Monitoring and control For agriculture Encouragement of environment friendly cultivation practices including environment friendly agrochemicals (developed through research) Control the use of agrochemicals (pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers) Control the use of organic fertilizers Treatment The capacity of urban wastewater treatment plants need to be increased rapidly in order to control pollution and prevent polluted water from reaching drains. Given the high cost involved, cost recovery of urban water treatment and sanitation is required but this should be accompanied by metering and should be implemented gradually. For rural areas, sanitation coverage is generally too low and local action plans need to be formulated using low cost technologies depending on the locality and involving the community. Treatment of industrial waste should be the responsibility of the industry. Industrial effluents are generally very different from domestic ones and therefore require different types of treatment. Separating the collection of the two types can help reduce the treatment costs. Introducing load-based charges can stimulate industries to treat their effluents before discharging them to the collection network. Public and private sector awareness is always important in this respect. Control For pollution that cannot be treated nor prevented, control is the only option. This is mainly done through legal and institutional measures such as: Defining functions of waterways with each having its water quality standards based on these functions Reducing contact with pollutants and incorporating these into local action plans Diversion of pollution away from coastal lakes Protection of groundwater wells Provision of on-site sanitation system and safe disposal sites for distant areas disconnected from collection systems Monitoring of water quality and dissemination of information Coordination of investments on the local and national levels Training and capacity building of involved stakeholders

7. Gaps and constrains

During the course of this study, several constraints have been identified as hindering the full assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Most of these are technological and relate to the availability of tools and models but some are also

related to the available time for this study. The following summarizes the most serious gaps and constraints: The coarse resolution of global climate models gives little confidence in their performance on the regional and country scales. Despite the huge advances in the field of climate modelling and the convergence of their results in many regions, they are still divergent for one of the main source for Nile waters (the Ethiopian Plateau) therefore the uncertainty in estimating future changes to Nile flows is still high. It is thought that the development of a regional model for the basin may help reduce the uncertainty. This gap was identified earlier in the 1st National communication of Egypt but has not yet been addressed. Currently, project proposals for developing such a model have been submitted by the MWRI and are being studied by donors. Due to time constraints, the developed climatic scenarios for the Nile basin were not translated to inflow scenarios. This requires the use of basin-wide hydrological models. Such a model exists in the MWRI but its performance needs to be evaluated and some regions may need calibration using observed data so that it could be used confidently for future scenarios. A few reviewed studies used integrated frameworks to assess the impacts of climate change on the Egyptian economy (e.g. Strzepek et al., 1995). However, the hydrological models used for that were probably too simple and the economic models that were used have been updated. In addition, these studies used climatic scenarios that were current at the time but have now been outdated. Thus, these studies have to be updated using the most recent scenarios and the updated models. Such an integrated framework should also include impacts on agriculture and coastal zone in addition to water resources. This way, adaptation options can be evaluated and prioritized giving clearer policy directions that can be mainstreamed in the national policies.

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