STAT 420

1.

Summer 2012

Practice Problems 1

For a certain population, the blood pressure ( X , Y ) = ( systolic , diastolic ) can be

modeled as having a bivariate normal distribution with X = 120,
Y = 82, Y = 15, = 0.6.

a)

X = 20,

Find the probability that an individual with a diastolic pressure ( Y ) of 91 will

have a systolic pressure ( X ) exceeding 140. That is, find P ( X > 140 | Y = 91 ).

b)

Find the probability that an individual with a systolic pressure ( X ) of 140 will
have a diastolic pressure ( Y ) exceeding 91. That is, find P ( Y > 91 | X = 140 ).

c)

Find the probability that an individual with a diastolic pressure ( Y ) of 100 will
have a systolic pressure ( X ) exceeding 152. That is, find P ( X > 152 | Y = 100 ).

d)

Find P ( X Y > 45 ).

2.

At Honest Harrys Used Car Dealership, the odometer reading ( X ) (in thousands of
miles) and selling price ( Y ) (in thousands of $) for a particular brand of a four-door
sedan have a bivariate normal distribution with

X = 50,
a)

X = 10,

Y = 15,

Y = 2,

= 0.60.

What is the probability that the selling price is under $12,000 for a four-door sedan
with 65,000 miles on its odometer? That is, find P ( Y < 12 | X = 65 ).

b)

What is the probability that the selling price is under $19,000 for a four-door sedan
with 40,000 miles on its odometer? That is, find P ( Y < 19 | X = 40 ).

3.

Suppose that the price of a Christmas present a child receives from his parents ( X )
and the price of a Christmas present a child receives from his grandparents ( Y ) have
a bivariate normal distribution with

X = $60,

X = $16,

Y = $50,

Y = $15,

= 0.30.

What is the probability that the total value of the presents is over $100?
That is, find P ( X + Y > 100 ).

4.

If the price of gasoline goes up, the prices of the other goods tend to go up too.
Suppose the price of a gallon of gas ( X ) and the price of a gallon of milk ( Y )
at Anytown follow a bivariate normal distribution with

X = $3.45,
a)

X = $0.15,

Y = $3.27,

Y = $0.09,

= 0.60.

Find the probability that the price of a gallon of milk is below $3.45, if the price
of a gallon of gas is $3.70. That is, find P ( Y < 3.45 | X = 3.70 ).

b)

Find the probability that a gallon of gas costs more than a gallon of milk. That is,
find P ( X > Y ).

c)

Alex buys 5 gallons of gas and 2 gallons of milk. What is the probability that he
paid more than $25? That is, find P ( 5 X + 2 Y > 25 ).

5.*

Suppose X has a multivariate normal distribution with mean

and covariance matrix =

5
2
3

9
4
0
2

a)

Find P ( X 1 > 8 ).

b)

Find P ( X 1 > 8 | X 2 = 5, X 3 = 8, X 4 = 3 ).

c)

Find P ( 3 X 1 5 X 2 + 4 X 3 > 2 ).

4 0
16 10
10 25
2

2
2
5

Answers:
1.

X = 120, X = 20, Y = 82, Y = 15, = 0.6.

a)

Given Y = 91, X has Normal distribution

with mean X +
and variance

X
( y Y ) = 120 + 0.6 20 ( 91 82 ) = 127.2
Y
15

(1 2 ) X2 = (1 0.6 2 ) 20 2

= 256

( standard deviation = 16 ).
140 127.2

P ( X > 140 | Y = 91 ) = P Z >

= P ( Z > 0.80 ) = 0.2119.
16

b)

Given X = 140, Y has Normal distribution

with mean Y +
and variance

Y
( x X ) = 82 + 0.6 15 ( 140 120 ) = 91
20
X

(1 2 ) Y2 = (1 0.6 2 ) 15 2

= 144

( standard deviation = 12 ).
91 91

P ( Y > 91 | X = 140 ) = P Z >

= P ( Z > 0.00 ) = 0.5000.
12

c)

Given Y = 100, X has Normal distribution

with mean X +
and variance

X
( y Y ) = 120 + 0.6 20 ( 100 82 ) = 134.4
Y
15

(1 2 ) X2 = (1 0.6 2 ) 20 2

= 256

( standard deviation = 16 ).
152 134.4

P ( X > 152 | Y = 100 ) = P Z >

= P ( Z > 1.10 ) = 0.1357.
16

d)

X Y has Normal distribution,

E ( X Y ) = X Y = 120 82 = 38,
Var ( X Y ) = X2 2 XY + Y2 = X2 2 X Y + Y2
= 20 2 2 0.6 20 15 + 15 2 = 265.
SD ( X Y ) 16.27882.
P ( X Y > 45 ) = P ( Z >

45 38
) = P ( Z > 0.43 ) = 0.3336.
16.27882

2.

X = 50,

Y = 15,

a)

Given X = 65, Y has Normal distribution

X = 10,

with mean

and variance

Y +

Y = 2,

= 0.60.

Y
( x X ) = 15 + ( 0.6 ) 2 ( 65 50 ) = 13.2
10
X

(1 2 ) Y2 = (1 ( 0.6 ) 2 ) 2 2

= 2.56

( standard deviation = 1.6 ).

12 13.2

P ( Y < 12 | X = 65 ) = P Z <
= P ( Z < 0.75 ) = ( 0.75 ) = 0.2266.
1 .6

b)

Given X = 40, Y has Normal distribution

with mean

and variance

Y +

Y
( x X ) = 15 + ( 0.6 ) 2 ( 40 50 ) = 16.2
X
10

(1 2 ) Y2 = (1 ( 0.6 ) 2 ) 2 2

= 2.56

( standard deviation = 1.6 ).

19 16.2

P ( Y < 19 | X = 40 ) = P Z <
= P ( Z < 1.75 ) = ( 1.75 ) = 0.9599.
1 .6

3.

X = $60,

X = $16,

Y = $50,

Y = $15,

= 0.30.

X + Y has Normal distribution,

E ( X + Y ) = X + Y = 60 + 50 = 110,
Var ( X + Y ) = X2 + 2 XY + Y2 = X2 + 2 X Y + Y2
= 16 2 + 2 0.3 16 15 + 15 2 = 625.
SD ( X + Y ) = 25.
P ( X + Y > 100 ) = P ( Z >

100 110
) = P ( Z > 0.40 ) = 0.6554.
25

4.

X = $3.45,

a)

Given X = 450, Y has Normal distribution

X = $0.15,

with mean Y +
and variance

Y = $3.27,

Y = $0.09,

= 0.60.

Y
( x X ) = 3.27 + 0.60 0.09 ( 3.70 3.45 ) = 3.36
X
0.15

(1 2 ) Y2 = (1 0.60 2 ) 0.09 2

= 0.005184

( standard deviation = 0.072 ).

3.45 3.36

P ( Y < 3.45 | X = 3.70 ) = P Z <

= P ( Z < 1.25 ) = 0.8944.
0.072

b)

P ( X > Y ) = P ( X Y > 0 ).
X Y has Normal distribution,
E ( X Y ) = X Y = 3.45 3.27 = 0.18,
Var ( X Y ) = X2 2 XY + Y2 = X2 2 X Y + Y2
= 0.15 2 2 0.60 0.15 0.09 + 0.09 2 = 0.0144,
SD ( X Y ) = 0.12.
P(X Y > 0) = P(Z >

0 0.18
) = P ( Z > 1.50 ) = 0.9332.
0.12

c)

5 X + 2 Y has Normal distribution,

E ( 5 X + 2 Y ) = 5 X + 2 Y = 5 3.45 + 2 3.27 = 23.79,
Var ( 5 X + 2 Y ) = 25 X2 + 20 XY + 4 Y2 = 25 X2 + 20 X Y + 4 Y2
= 25 0.15 2 + 20 0.60 0.15 0.09 + 4 0.09 2 = 0.7569,
SD ( 5 X + 2 Y ) = 0.87.
P ( 5 X + 2 Y > 25 ) = P ( Z >

25 23.79
) = P ( Z > 1.39 ) = 0.0823.
0.87

5.*

a)

2
and covariance matrix =
3

4 16 10 2
.
0 10 25 5

2 2 5 4
9

X1 ~ N ( 5, 9 )
85

P ( X1 > 8 ) = P Z >
= P ( Z > 1.00 ) = 0.1587.
3

b)

16 10 2

22 = 10 25 5
2 5 4

1
12 22

1
22

75 50 100
1
=
100
50 60
500
100 100 300

0.15 0.1 0.2

= 0.1 0.12 0.2

0 .2 0 .2
0.6

0.15 0.1 0.2

= ( 4 0 2 ) 0.1 0.12 0.2 = ( 1 0.8 2 )

0 .2 0 .2
0.6

1 + 12 221 (X 2 2 ) = 5 +

52

( 1 0 .8 2 ) 8 3
3 4

= 6.

11 12 221 21 = 9

( 1 0 .8 2 ) 0 = 1 .
2

X 1 | X 2 = 5, X 3 = 8, X 4 = 3 ~ N ( 6, 1 )
86

P ( X1 > 8 | X2 = 1, X3 = 10 ) = P Z >
= P ( Z > 2.00 ) = 0.0228.
1

c)

3 1 5 2 + 4 3 = 3 5 5 2 + 4 3 = 17.

( 3 5 4 0 )

2

4 16 10 2

0 10 25 5

2 2 5 4
9

5
= ( 7 28 50 36 )

5
= 361.
4

3 X 1 5 X 2 + 4 X 3 ~ N ( 17, 361 )

2 17
P ( 3 X 1 5 X 2 + 4 X 3 > 2 ) = P Z >
= P ( Z > 1.00 ) = 0.8413.
361