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S Y R I A

Are the forces with them

The Syrian forces bombardment of Homs reached new levels of brutality last week, posing a major dilemma for western governments. With reports of indiscriminate attacks on civilians sparking international outrage, there were clear echoes of the civil war in Libya a year ago. But as revolutionary fighters in the region have repeatedly asked for outside assistance, nations including Britain and America have been hesitant to directly intervene. Instead, they have increasingly turned to covert methods. The situation in Syria reached crisis point ten days ago, when embattled leader Bashar al-Assads military began shelling the city of Homs in the west of the country. Though Assad denied responsibility, activists said hundreds of civilians including many children died in the attacks, while some of the few journalists on the ground reported seeing some of the most gruesome scenes since unrest began in the country in January 2011. Shortly after the wave of bombardment commenced, on 4 February a United Nations (UN) resolution to remove Assad from power was tabled. The resolution was quickly vetoed by China and Russia, allies of the Assad regime, dashing hopes of a quick solution. Yet while the international community failed to reach a consensus on how to respond, some reports have suggested unofficial, secret efforts are already underway to assist revolutionary forces known as the Free Syrian Army on the outskirts of the country. Late last year, an article in the respected Paris publication Le Canard Enchane Frances version of British investigative magazine Private Eye contained leaked information. Quoting senior military intelligence sources, it reported that British and French secret services were already at work in northern Lebanon and Turkey, establishing contacts with Syrian soldiers who
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Despite the violence in Syria, western governments remain opposed to direct military intervention. But behind the scenes, reports Ryan Gallagher, there are signs that special forces are helping the rebels
had fled after defecting from Assads army. It added that French special operations teams were already prepared, in Turkey, should they get the order, to train these deserters in urban guerrilla warfare. This revelation was compounded by details divulged by former US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officer Philip Giraldi in December. Citing insider sources, Giraldi, who served in the CIA for 18 years, wrote in a US magazine that the agency was assisting Syrian dissidents and rebels in the region, and that unmarked planes had been used to fly in small arms seized from toppled Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. According to him, the arms were distributed to Syrian anti-government fighters from a US airbase in Adana, Turkey, near the Syrian border. Im fairly confident that there has been what the intelligence community calls a finding on Syria, which has authorised the intelligence and special ops elements to undertake operations basically against the Syrian government, Giraldi says, speaking to The Big Issue in The North from Virginia in eastern America. That means the White House is on board saying that we will be doing things that will be deniable but which we approve of. The US is known to have wanted regime change in Syria for some time, as it considers the country a state sponsor of terrorism. A secret US government document published by whistleblower organisation WikiLeaks in 2011 revealed that as recently as 2006 the US was plotting to undermine the Assad regime. The document, written by a US diplomat in Damascus, noted: If we are ready to capitalise, they [the Syrian regime] will offer us opportunities to disrupt his [Assads] decision-making, keep him off balance, and make him pay a premium for his mistakes. With this in mind, Giraldi believes

Very little is known about the fragmented Syrian rebel forces and their motivations.

REPRESSION AND DISSENT

Led by 46-year-old president Bashar al-Assad, Syria is an authoritarian, military dictatorship that crushes dissent violently. Assad came to power in 2000 as leader of the Arab socialist Baath Party, succeeding his father, and had been seen as a potential reformist . He trained as an ophthalmologist in London and is married to a British woman. Syria is officially a secular state that recognises Islam as the majority religion, with around 74 per cent of Syrians Sunni Muslims. Alawites, a minority Shiite sect, account for about 10 per cent of the population including President Assad himself. Christians make up ten per cent of the population. Protests first began in Syria on 26 January 2011. The demonstrators called for an end to Assads rule along with greater political freedoms. Widespread civil disobedience was eventually met with brutal acts of attempted suppression by the regime, which sent in tanks, shut off electricity and ordered snipers to shoot people. By July, a number of soldiers from the regimes military defected and formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA) to fight against Assads rule. Last month the FSA took control of its first city Zabadani, in south west Syria. The force also reportedly took control of Douma, a suburb near the capital Damascus, and claimed to control around two-thirds of Homs prior to the recent bombardment by government forces. With only small arms at its disposal, the FSA has been powerless to defend itself against heavy artillery and tank fire.

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it is implausible to think US special forces are not already operating in Syria, and cites it as one of what he calls Americas secret wars, which cause him concern. Questioning the wisdom of getting involved in a conflict in the country, he argues that very little is known about the fragmented Syrian rebel forces and their motivations. This reflects a much wider fear that, if Assad is to fall, the militias made up of differing religious groups could turn on each other in the struggle for power, leading to even greater bloodshed. When you dont know what youre getting into, you would probably be better served by not doing it, Giraldi says. It could well be that the British, French and American governments know a lot more about Syria than we do, but I dont know about that. I was in the intelligence profession and I know how thin this stuff can be. The pattern developing in Syria appears similar to how the civil war unfolded in Libya last year. Both before and after a UN resolution imposed a no-fly zone over the country, agents from both Britains MI6 and Americas CIA were known to be on the ground. MI6, accompanied by elite Special Air Service (SAS) soldiers, reportedly helped direct air strikes, met with

Libyan rebel leaders and gathered information about the locations of key Gaddafi military sites. According to former SAS officer Robin Horsfall, the role of elite British soldiers was crucial in helping rebels topple Gaddafi. Horsfall believes, as in Libya, UN forces or subversive support will be essential for any successful overthrow of Assad. But he doubts British special forces are currently engaged directly in helping Syrian fighters given the current stalemate over the UN resolution. To be seen to be training a cadre of revolutionaries and supplying them with information and weapons in a place like Turkey, where there is free movement of the press, would be a huge political risk and I dont think theyd be inclined to do that right now, he says. There may well be special forces, as there always are, moved close to any flashpoint in the world. But in reality theyre not doing anything. Theyre probably close to the theatre [of war] practising for any eventuality. Though Horsfall thinks there are unlikely to be British soldiers within the country, he says the presence of British spies is likely. One of the eventualities that they [the SAS] will be preparing for without any doubt is the evacuation of any diplomats, any VIPs... Also agents people use the

word diplomats but often they are agents working for MI6, who are intelligence gatherers. With mobile phones and the internet, the risks that spies have to take are far less difficult, the main reason being that information is freely available and transmittable from every street in Syria, which is to the great disadvantage of Assad. As Homs continued to suffer at the time of going to press, one of the few certainties about the Syrian crisis is that there will be more violence. Anti-Assad fighters say they will settle for nothing less than his removal from power but Assad shows no sign of leaving without an almighty fight. If the conflict continues on this path, and a peaceful solution is not negotiated, it is increasingly likely that teams of elite western soldiers if they have not yet done so will covertly enter Syria to help train, arm and coordinate rebel fighters. I would be very surprised if that sort of back-channel activity wasnt already happening, Lord Williams, formerly the UNs most senior official in the Middle East, told the BBC last week. I would expect the services of some countries to be involved... In consultation with Turkey, there is scope for further action in that regard.

An FSA gunman stands guard as demonstrators pray on a street in Reef Damascus, during a protest against President Assads forces attacking the town of Homs. Photo: Reuters

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