STAT 248: EDA & Stationarity Answers Exercise Lab 3

GSI: Gido van de Ven September 17th, 2010

Theoretical Problems

Consider the time series

xt = 1 + 2 t + Zt

(t = 1, 2, 3, ...)

(1)

2 where 1 and 2 are known constants and Zt is a white noise process with variance Z .

1. Determine whether xt is stationary. E(xt ) = E(1 + 2 t + Zt ) = 1 + 2 t using E(Zt ) = 0

As the mean function depends on time and is not constant, xt is non-stationary. 2. Show that the process yt = xt xt1 is stationary. We need to check the three requirements of a stationary process given in the handouts.

E(yt ) = E(xt xt1 ) = E(1 + 2 t + Zt (1 + 2 (t 1) + Zt1 )) = 2 where we used that E(Zt ) = 0 t. So the mean function is constant. Also, yt has a nite second moment since it is a sum of two random variables with nite second moments. The only thing left to verify is that the auto covariance function is only a function of the lag h, and does not depend on time t.

(t, t + h) = Cov(yt , yt+h ) = E[yt yt+h ] E[yt ]E[yt+h ] Working with the rst part of (2) we have the following result:

(2)

E[yt yt+h ] = E[(xt xt1 )(xt+h xt+h1 )] = E[(Zt + 2 Zt1 )(Zt+h + 2 Zt+h1 )]
2 = E[Zt Zt+h ] E[Zt Zt+h1 ] + 2 + E[Zt1 Zt+h1 ]

2 2 where we used thatE(Zt1 Zt2 ) = 0 t1 = t2 . Also using E(Zt ) = Z gives:

 2 2 2 + 2Z 2 2 E[yt yt+h ] = Z 2 2 2 Working with the second part of (2) gives:

if h = 0 if h = 1 else

2 E[yt ]E[yt+h ] = E[xt xt1 ]E[xt+h xt+h1 ] = E[yt ]E[yt+h ] = 2

So: 2 2Z 2 Z Cov(yt , yt+h ) = 0 if h = 0 if h = 1 else

Thus the auto covariance function does not depend on time t. Therefore, yt is stationary. 3. Show that the mean of the moving average 1 vt = 2q + 1
q

xtj
j=q

(3)

is 1 + 2 t, and give a simplied expression for the autocovariance function of vt . 1 2q + 1

q

E(vt ) =

j=q

1 E(xtj ) = 2q + 1
q

E(1 + 2 (t j) + Ztj )
j=q

= 1 +

2 2q + 1

(t j) = 1 + 2 t +
j=q

2 2q + 1

j = 1 + 2 t
j=q

For the autocovariance function it is useful to rst calculate:

2 2 2 1 + 21 2 t + 2 t2 + Z if j = 0 2 + 2 t + j + 2 t(t j) else 1 1 2 1 2 2

E(xt xtj ) = E[(1 + 2 t + Zt )(1 + 2 (t j) + Ztj )] Using this, we can calculate:

q q

E[vt vt+h ] =

1 E[ (2q + 1)2

xtj

j=q

2 = 1 + 21 2

1 (2q + 1)2
q

j=q q q

1 xt+hj ] = (2q + 1)2 (t j) + 1 2

E[xtj xt+hi ]
j=q i=q q q

... +
2 1

2 2

1 (2q + 1)2

j=q i=q q

1 (2q + 1)2

(h + j i) + ...
j=q i=q 2 Z

[(t j)((t j) + (h + j i))] +

j=q i=q 2 2 t(t 2 Z

1 (2q + 1)2

1{h+ji=0}
j=q i=q

+ 21 2 t + 1 2 h +

+ h) +

1 (2q + 1)2

1{h+ji=0}
j=q i=q

Also:

2 2 E[vt ]E[vt+h ] = (1 + 2 t)(1 + 2 (t + h)) = 1 + 21 2 t + 1 2 h + 2 t(t + h)

Using above results, we can simplify the expression for the autocovariance function of vt as:
q q

Cov(vt , vt+h ) = E[vt vt+h ] E[vt ]E[vt+h ] =

2 Z

1 (2q + 1)2

1{h+ji=0} =
j=q i=q

2 Z 2q+1h (2q+1)2 0

if |h| 2q else