Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
BY: ZARNA MESWANI ROLL NO: 104 MFM III B NMIMS GUIDE: MS VRINDA KAMAT
INTRODUCTION
Technology is reshaping this economy and transforming businesses and consumers. This is about more than e- commerce, or e-mail or e-trades, or e-files. It is about the e in the economic opportunity. William Daley, U. S Commerce Secretary. Venture Capitalists are the people who are the early investors in this opportunity. They source new ventures and invest in them. Venture capital means risk capital. It refers to capital investment, both equity and debt, which carry substantial risk and uncertainties. The risk envisaged may be very high may be so high as to result in total loss or very less so as to result in high gains. The investment in equities is expected to grow up as capital gains that can be converted into cash when required. Venture capital is thus an initiative to provide vital equity support to new industries where the risk element is high and entrepreneurs are qualified but lack necessary resources to proceed on their own. A venture capitalist entertains keen interest and active participation in the working of the business. Subject to the understanding with the investee, the investor takes part in the management, production, marketing, accounting, training activities etc. The venture capitalist therefore becomes a partner in the business and shares success or failure proportionate to the equity investment. The venture investment is long term and is not repayable on demand. The venture capitalist ahs to wait between 5 and 10 years for any significant return on his investment. The venture capitalist does not participate in the day-to-day working but protects and enhances his investment through an active supporting role. Venture capital commonly describes not only provision of start-up finance but also for development for later stages of the business. After an evolutionary learning process, the ideal-typical institutional form for venture capital became the venture capital firm operating a series of funds raised from wealthy individuals, pension funds, foundations, endowments and various other institutional sources. The venture capitalists were professionals, often with industry experience, and the investors were silent limited partners. At present a fund generally operates for a set number of years (usually between seven and ten) and then is terminated. Normally, each firm manages more than one partnership simultaneously. Even though the venture capital firm is the quintessential organizational format, there are other vehicles, the most persistent of which have been venture capital subsidiaries of major corporations, financial and non-financial. The venture capitalist invests in a recently established firm believed to have the potential to provide a return of ten times or more in less than five years. This is highly risky, and many of the investments fail entirely; however, the large winners are expected to more than compensate for the failures. In return for investing, the venture capitalists not only receive a major equity stake in the firm, but they also Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
Finance new and rapidly growing companies Purchase equity securities Assist in the development of new products or services Add value to the company through active participation Take higher risks with the expectation of higher rewards Have a long-term orientation
When considering an investment, venture capitalists carefully screen the technical and business merits of the proposed company. Venture capitalists only invest in a small percentage of the businesses they review and have a long-term perspective. They also actively work with the company's management, especially with contacts and strategy formulation. Venture capitalists mitigate the risk of investing by developing a portfolio of young companies in a single venture fund. Many times they co-invest with other professional venture capital firms. In addition, many venture partnerships manage multiple funds simultaneously. For decades, venture capitalists have nurtured the growth of America's high technology and entrepreneurial communities resulting in significant job creation, economic growth and international competitiveness. Companies such as Digital Equipment Corporation, Apple, Federal Express, Compaq, Sun Microsystems, Intel, Microsoft and Genentech are famous examples of companies that received venture capital early in their development. In India, these funds are governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) guidelines. According to this, venture capital fund means a fund established in the form of a company or trust, which raises monies through loans, donations, and issue of securities or units as the case may be, and makes or proposes to make investments in accordance with these regulations.
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1. Genesis
Financial Institutions Led By ICICI Ventures, RCTC, ILFS, etc.
Regional funds like Warburg Pincus, JF Electra (mostly operating out of Hong Kong).
Regional funds dedicated to India like Draper, Walden, etc. Offshore funds like Barings, TCW, HSBC, etc. Corporate ventures like Intel.
To this list we can add Angels like Sivan Securities, Atul Choksey (ex Asian Paints) and others. Merchant bankers and NBFCs who specialized in "bought out" deals also fund companies. Most merchant bankers led by Enam Securities now invest in IT companies. 1. Investment Philosophy Early stage funding is avoided by most funds apart from ICICI ventures, Draper, SIDBI and Angels. Funding growth or mezzanine funding till pre IPO is the segment where most players operate. In this context, most funds in India are private equity investors. 2. Size Of Investment The size of investment is generally less than US$1mn, US$1-5mn, US$510mn, and greater than US$10mn. As most funds are of a private equity kind, size of investments has been increasing. IT companies generally require funds of about Rs30-40mn in an early stage which fall outside funding limits of most funds and that is why the government is promoting schemes to fund start ups in general, and in IT in particular. 3. Value Addition The venture funds can have a totally "hands on" approach towards their investment like Draper or "hands off" like Chase. ICICI Ventures falls in the limited exposure category. In general, venture funds who fund seed or start ups have a closer interaction with the companies and advice on strategy, etc while the private equity funds treat their exposure like any other listed investment. This is partially justified, as they tend to invest in more mature stories.
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Mastek, one of the oldest software houses in India Geometric Software, a producer of software solutions for the CAD/CAM market
Satyam Infoway, the first private ISP in India Rediff on the Net, Indian website featuring electronic shopping, news, chat, etc
Though the infotech companies are among the most favored by venture capitalists, companies from other sectors also feature equally in their portfolios. The healthcare sector with pharmaceutical, medical appliances and biotechnology industries also get much attention in India. With the deregulation of the telecom sector, telecommunications industries like Zip Telecom and media companies like UTV and Television Eighteen have joined the list of favorites. So far, these trends have been in keeping with the global course.
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INCUBATORS
Incubators are mostly non-profit entities that provide value added advisory, informational and certain support infrastructure, which includes productive office environment, finance and complementary resources. Government or professional organizations seeking to develop small enterprises in a particular area mostly promote incubators. Some times venture capital funds also have their own incubators and companies also set up in-house incubators. Incubators support the entrepreneur in the pre-venture capital stage, that is, when he wants to develop the idea to a viable commercial proposition that could be financed and supported by a venture capitalist.
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Manage portfolios ruthlessly; abandon losers, whereas abandoning ventures has never been easy for large corporations, whose projects are underpinned by personal relationships, political concerns.
Venture capital firms share several attributes with start up they fund. They tend to be small, flexible and quick to make decisions. They have flat hierarchies and rely heavily on equity and incentive pay.
Apple Computers established a venture fund in 1986 with the dual objectives of earning high financial return and supporting development of Macintosh software. They structured compensation mechanisms, decision criteria and operating procedures on those of top venture capital firms. While they considered Macintosh as an initial screening factor, its funding decisions were aimed at optimizing financial returns. The result was an IRR of 90 per cent but little success in improving the position of Macintosh. New ventures can be powerful source of revenues, diversification and flexibility in rapidly changing environments. The company should create an environment that encourages venturing. An innovative culture cannot be transplanted but must evolve within the company. Venture investing requires different mindset from typical corporate investors. How relevant is corporate venturing in the Indian scenario? The firms, which launched the successful corporate ventures had created new products in the market operating at the higher end of the value chain and had attained a certain size in the market. Most Indian companies are yet to move up the value chain and consolidate their position as players in the global market. Corporate venturing models would probably benefit Indian companies who are large players in the Indian market in another five to 10 years by enabling them to diversify and at the same time help start up companies. Multinationals led by Intel are the best examples of corporate venturing in an Indian context. Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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Generating a deal flow Business Plan Development Due diligence Investment valuation Pricing and structuring the deal Value Addition and monitoring Exit
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Generating A Deal Flow In generating a deal flow, the venture capital investor creates a pipeline of deals or investment opportunities that he would consider for investing in. This is achieved primarily through plugging into an appropriate network. The most popular network obviously is the network of venture capital funds/investors. It is also common for venture capitals to develop working relationships with R&D institutions, academia, etc, which could potentially lead to business opportunities. Understandably the composition of the network would depend on the investment focus of the venture capital funds/company. Thus venture capital funds focussing on early stage technology based deals would develop a network of R&D centers working in those areas. The network is crucial to the success of the venture capital investor. It is almost imperative for the venture capital investor to receive a large number of investment proposals from which he can select a few good investment candidates
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Forecast likely future value of the firm based on experienced market capitalization or expected acquisition proceeds depending upon the anticipated exit from the investment. Target an ownership position in the investee firm so as to achieve desired appreciation on the proposed investment. The appreciation desired should yield a hurdle rate of return on a Discounted Cash Flow basis. NPV = [(Cash)/(Post)] x [(PAT x PER)] x k, where
NPV = Net Present Value of the cash flows relating to the investment comprising outflow by way of investment and inflows by way of interest/dividends (if any) and realization on exit. The rate of return used for discounting is the hurdle rate of return set by the venture capital investor. Cash represents the amount of cash being brought into the particular round of financing by the venture capital investor. Pre is the pre-money valuation of the firm estimated by the investor. While technically it is measured by the intrinsic value of the firm at the time of raising capital. It is more often a matter of negotiation driven by the ownership of the company that the venture capital investor desires and the ownership that founders/management team is prepared to give away for the required amount of capital
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PAT is the forecast Profit after tax in a year and often agreed upon by the founders and the investors (as opposed to being arrived at unilaterally)? It would also be the net of preferred dividends, if any. PER is the Price-Earning multiple that could be expected of a comparable firm in the industry. It is not always possible to find such a comparable fit in venture capital situations. That necessitates, therefore, a significant degree of judgement on the part of the venture capital to arrive at alternate PER scenarios.
K is the present value interest factor (corresponding to a discount rate r) for the investment horizon. It is quite apparent that PER time PAT represents the value of the firm at that time and the complete expression really represents the investors share of the value of the investee firm. The following example illustrates this framework: Example: Best Mousetrap Limited (BML) has developed a prototype that needs to be commercialized. BML needs cash of Rs2mn to establish production facilities and set up a marketing program. BML expects the company will go public in the third year and have revenues of Rs70mn and a PAT margin of 10% on sales. Assume, for the sake of convenience that there would be no further addition to the equity capital of the company.
Prudent Fund Managers (PFM) propose to lead a syndicate of like minded investors with a hurdle rate of return of 75% (discounted) over a five year period based on BMLs sales and profitability expectations. Firms with comparable sales and profitability and risk profiles trade at 12 times earnings on the stock exchange. The following would be the sequence of computations: In order to get a 75% return p.a. the initial investment of Rs2 million must yield an accumulation of 2 x (1.75)5 = Rs32.8mn on disinvestment in year 5. BMLs market capitalization in five years is likely to be Rs (70 x 0.1 x 12) million = Rs84mn. Percentage ownership in BML that is required to yield the desired accumulation will be (32.8/84) x 100 = 39% Therefore the post money valuation of BML At the time of raising capital will be equal to Rs (2/0.39) million = Rs5.1 million which implies that a pre-money valuation of Rs3.1 million for BML Another popular variant of the above method is the First Chicago Method (FCM) developed by Stanley Golder, a leading professional venture capital manager. FCM assumes three possible scenarios success, sideways survival and failure. Outcomes under these three scenarios are probability weighted to arrive at an expected rate of return: In reality the valuation of the firm is driven by a number of factors. The more significant among these are: Overall economic conditions: A buoyant economy produces an optimistic long- term outlook for new products/services and therefore results in more liberal pre-money valuations. Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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Demand and supply of capital: when there is a surplus of venture capital of venture capital chasing a relatively limited number of venture capital deals, valuations go up. This can result in unhealthy levels of low returns for venture capital investors. Specific rates of deals: such as the founders/management teams track record, innovation/ unique selling propositions (USPs), the product/service size of the potential market, etc affects valuations in an obvious manner. The degree of popularity of the industry/technology in question also influences the pre-money. Computer Aided Skills Software Engineering (CASE) tools and Artificial Intelligence were one time darlings of the venture capital community that have now given place to biotech and retailing. The standing of the individual venture capital Well established venture capitals who are sought after by entrepreneurs for a number of reasons could get away with tighter valuations than their less known counterparts. Investors considerations could vary significantly. A study by an American venture capital, VentureOne, revealed the following trend. Large corporations who invest for strategic advantages such as access to technologies, products or markets pay twice as much as a professional venture capital investor, for a given ownership position in a company but only half as much as investors in a public offering.
Valuation offered on comparable deals around the time of investing in the deal. Quite obviously, valuation is one of the most critical activities in the investment process. It would not be improper to say that the success for a fund will be determined by its ability to value/price the investments correctly.
Sometimes the valuation process is broadly based on thumb rule metrics such as multiple of revenue. Though such methods would appear rough and ready, they are often based on fairly well established industry averages of operating profitability and assets/capital turnover ratios Such valuation as outlined above is possible only where complete freedom of pricing is available. In the Indian context, where until recently, the pricing of equity issues was heavily regulated, unfortunately valuation was heavily constrained.
Structuring A Deal Structuring refers to putting together the financial aspects of the deal and negotiating with the entrepreneurs to accept a venture capitals proposal and finally Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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Instrument Loan
Issues Clean vs. secured Interest bearing vs. non interest bearing Convertible Vs one with features (warrants) 1st Charge, 2nd Charge, Loan vs. loan stock Maturity
Preference shares
Redeemable (conditions under Company Act) Participating par value nominal shares
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In India, straight equity and convertibles are popular and commonly used. Nowadays, warrants are issued as a tool to bring down pricing. A variation that was first used by PACT and TDICI was "royalty on sales". Under this, the company was given a conditional loan. If the project was successful, the company had to pay a % age of sales as royalty and if it failed then the amount was written off. In structuring a deal, it is important to listen to what the entrepreneur wants, but the venture capital comes up with his own solution. Even for the proposed investment amount, the venture capital decides whether or not the amount requested, is appropriate and consistent with the risk level of the investment. The risks should be analyzed, taking into consideration the stage at which the company is in and other factors relating to the project. (E.g. exit problems, etc). Promoter Shares As venture capital is to finance growth, venture capital investment should ideally be used for financing expansion projects (e.g. new plant, capital equipment, and additional working capital). On the other hand, entrepreneurs may want to sell away part of their interests in order to lock-in a profit for their work in building up the company. In such a case, the structuring may include some vendor shares, with the bulk of financing going into buying new shares to finance growth. Handling Directors And Shareholders Loans Frequently, a company has existing director and shareholders loans prior to inviting venture capitalists to invest. As the money from venture capital is put into the company to finance growth, it is preferable to structure the deal to require these loans to be repaid back to the shareholders/directors only upon IPOs/exits and at some mutually agreed period (e.g. 1 or 2 years after investment). This will increase the financial commitment of the entrepreneur and the shareholders of the project. A typical proposal may include a combination of several different instruments listed above. Under normal circumstances, entrepreneurs would prefer venture capitals to invest in equity, as this would be the lowest risk option for the company. However from the venture capitals point of view, the safest instrument, but with the least return, would be a secured loan. Hence, ultimately, what you end up with would be some instruments in between which are sold to the entrepreneur. Monitoring and Follow Up Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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The role of the venture capitalist does not stop after the investment is made in the project. The skills of the venture capitalist are most required once the investment is made. The venture capitalist gives ongoing advice to the promoters and monitors the project continuously. It is to be understood that the providers of venture capital are not just financiers or subscribers to the equity of the project they fund. They function as a dual capacity, as a financial partner and strategic advisor. Venture capitalists monitor and evaluate projects regularly. They keep a hand on the pulse of the project. They are actively involved in the management of the of the investee unit and provide expert business counsel, to ensure its survival and growth. Deviations or causes of worry may alert them to potential problems and they can suggest remedial actions or measures to avoid these problems. As professional in this unique method of financing, they may have innovative solutions to maximize the chances of success of the project. After all, the ultimate aim of the venture capitalist is the same as that of the promoters the long term profitability and viability of the investee company. Exit One of the most crucial issues is the exit from the investment. After all, the return to the venture capitalist can be realized only at the time of exit. Exit from the investment varies from the investment to investment and from venture capital to venture capital. There are several exit routes, buy-buck by the promoters, sale to another venture capitalist or sale at the time of Initial Public Offering, to name a few. In all cases specialists will work out the method of exit and decide on what are most profitable and suitable to both the venture capitalist and the investee unit and the promoters of the project. At present many investments of venture capitalists in India remain on paper, as they do not have any means of exit. Appropriate changes have to be made to the existing systems in order that venture capitalists find it easier to realize their investments after holding on to them for a certain period of time. This factor is even more critical to smaller and mid sized companies, which are unable to get listed on any stock exchange, as they do not meet the minimum requirements for such listings. Stock exchanges could consider how they could assist in this matter for listing of companies keeping in mind the requirement of the venture capital industry.
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The Idea The idea and its potential for commercialization are critical. Venture funds look for a scalable model, at a country or a regional level. Otherwise the entire game would be reduced to a manpower or machine multiplication exercise. For example, it is very easy for Hindustan Lever to double sales of Liril - soap without incremental capital expenditure, while Gujarat Ambuja needs to spend at least Rs4bn before it can increase sales by 1mn ton. Distinctive competitive advantages must exist in the form of scale, technology, brands, distribution, etc which will make it difficult for competition to enter. Valuation Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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US $MIO
HARDWARE 1037 1050 1205 35 286 201 1072 1336 1406 PERIPHERALS 196 181 229 6 14 19 202 195 248 OTHERS 183 182 156 521 3805
1026 4 1030
148 6 154
329 18 347
Moreover, the percentage of on-site contract programming revenues fell from 90 percent in 1988 to 45 percent in 19992000 (NASSCOM 1998). Still, because an additional 35 percent of work is off-site contract programming, low value-added services remain dominant. High value-added next-stage businesses, including turnkey projects, consultancy and transformational outsourcing make up the balance, and branded product development for the export market is negligible. A Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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In 2000 alone, 20 new venture capital funds have registered with SEBI, taking the total number to 30. In fact, VC or Angel investments in high tech firms in India have grown by over 5,000 percent from Rs. 70 crore to projected Rs. 2,200 crore between 1996 and 2000. And this figure is expected to grow to Rs. 50,000 crore by 2008. An analysis of financing by investment stages indicate the following figures:
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However, the present regulatory framework is still not enough to provide for an environment that lays stress on encouraging the flow of venture funds, easy exit options (for either party), mentoring, non-qualified availability of funds, and flow of public funds for enterprise building in India. India needs to encourage the growth of risk capital by acting on three fronts: The Government of India and Indian financial institutions should catalyze the process. This will stimulate competition but also protect entrepreneurs from inevitable risks. India should amend its regulatory framework so that the VC funds can earn a reasonable return on their risk capital.
Focusing on the areas of concern that merit an early redress, NASSCOM has prepared a 15-point action plan to provide a stronger thrust to entrepreneurship and the start-up culture in India. These points have already been taken up with the various Ministries / bodies within the Government of India and the industry. The action plan includes the following: Encourage participation of Provident Funds / Pension Funds etc. The Government must expedite legislation for LLC / LLP
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Learn from the Israel and US experience Small business investment programs Encourage banks IPO norms for IT companies VCFs can partake various forms of funds Exit options Early implementation of OTCEI plans Incubation Engine Intricate linkages with the NRI community Introduction of Entrepreneurial course components Standing Committee of Government-Industry Venture Investment Fairs
Guidelines Issued By SEBI For Venture Capital Firms. The Securities and Exchange Board of India announced a set of venture capital guidelines on 14th Sept 2000. All Venture Capital Funds investing in India will have to be registered with SEBI. SEBI said that venture funds incorporated in India will have to exit a company within a year of it going public, but it could stay invested if it agrees to forego the tax pass through benefit. Foreign funds not incorporated in India will not get a tax pass through. The minimum investment in a Venture Capital Firm (VCF) has been fixed at Rs 5 lakhs. The minimum corpse of the fund will have to be Rs. 5 crore. The maximum a VCF can invest in a company cannot exceed 25 percent of the corpus. Investments in associated companies of the firm invested in are also not permitted. 75 percent of the corpus has to be invested in unlisted securities. The balance could be invested in companies proposed to be listed by way of an IPO subject to a 1-year lock in. Mutual Funds can invest 5 percent of the corpus of an open-ended scheme in a VCF and 10 percent in case of close-ended schemes. This will allow retail investors to invest in VCFs. Stipulating a time period, by which a VCF must exit, will deter a foreign VCF from coming to India.
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Contributors of Funds Contributors Foreign Institutional Investors All India Financial Institutions Multilateral Development Agencies Other Banks Foreign Investors Private Sector Public Sector Nationalized Banks Non Resident Indians State Financial Institutions Other Public Insurance Companies Mutual Funds Total Rs mn 13,426.47 6,252.90 2,133.64 1,541.00 570 412.53 324.44 278.67 235.5 215 115.52 85 4.5 25,595.17 Per cent 52.46% 24.43% 8.34% 6.02% 2.23% 1.61% 1.27% 1.09% 0.92% 0.84% 0.45% 0.33% 0.02% 100.00%
Methods of Financing Instruments Equity Shares Redeemable Preference Shares Non Convertible Debt Convertible Instruments Other Instruments Rs million 6,318.12 2,154.46 873.01 580.02 75.85 Per cent 63.18 21.54 8.73 5.8 0.75
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Financing By Investment Stage Investment Stages Start-up Later stage Other early stage Seed stage Turnaround financing Total Rs million 3,813.00 3,338.99 1,825.77 963.2 59.5 10,000.46 Number 297 154 124 107 9 691
Financing By Industry Industry Industrial products, machinery Computer Software Consumer Related Medical Food, food processing Other electronics Tel & Data Communications Biotechnology Energy related Computer Hardware Miscellaneous Total Rs million 2,599.32 1,832 1,412.74 623.8 500.06 436.54 385.09 376.46 249.56 203.36 1,380.85 10,000.46 Number 208 87 58 44 50 41 16 30 19 25 113 691
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Financing By States Investment Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Karnataka West Bengal Haryana Delhi Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Kerala Goa Rajasthan Punjab Orissa Dadra & Nagar Haveli Himachal Pradesh Pondicherry Bihar Overseas Total Source IVCA Rs million 2,566 1531 1372 1102 1046 312 300 294 283 231 135 105 87 84 35 32 28 22 16 413 9994 Number 161 119 89 49 93 22 22 21 29 2 15 16 11 6 5 1 3 2 3 12 691
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The Indian Trust Act, 1882 or the Company Act, 1956 depending on whether the fund is set up as a trust or a company. (In the US, a venture capital firm is normally set up as a limited liability partnership) The Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in case of an offshore fund. These funds have to secure the permission of the FIPB while setting up in India and need a clearance from the RBI for any repatriation of income. The Central Board of Direct Taxation (CBDT) governs the issues pertaining to income tax on the proceeds from venture capital funding activity. The long term capital gains tax is at around 10% in India and the relevant clauses to venture capital may be found in Section 10 (subsection 23). The Securities and Exchange Board of India has come out with a set of guidelines.
In addition to the above there are a number of arms of the Government of India Ministry of Finance that may have to be approached in certain situations. Also intervention allied agencies like the Department of Electronics, the National Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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What Do Entrepreneurs Expect In A Venture Capital Investment? Venture capital investors boast of bringing more than money to the projects that they fund. This part of the study aimed at eliciting a response from the promoters of the projects about their expectations of a helping hand. Listed below are the most common responses among the sample of IT investors and the percentage of people who agreed with them.
Expectation Assistance in terms of marketing advice, leads, networking Follow on/later stage financing Financial management and strategy Non executive governance Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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Manpower planning, recruitment of personnel Doing away with legal hassles, red tape, bureaucracy Transfer of technology
What Attributes Do Venture Capitalists Look For In A Deal? Unlike the entrepreneurs, the VCs seem to be more in unison as they agree on a few critical success parameters. The respondents have identified the following critical factors.
Attribute Management quality Promoters credentials and track record A focused development strategy A strong proprietary and competitive position A scalable business model An innovative concept, breakthrough technology Measurable milestones in the development strategy
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Perception Insensitive to very early stage projects Bankers with little practical technical knowledge Invest only in successful expanding companies Negotiations take too long Do not meet our funding needs (less then $1 million) Making an approach, business plan is difficult Valuations are unfair
Would You Consider/have You Considered Venture Capital Funding As A Source Of Capital For Your Project? As pointed out earlier, a large number of these firms have been funded or are currently in the process of working out a deal with venture capital firms. Keeping this in mind, 93% of the respondents proved to be inclined towards venture capital. The alternative to venture capital, not surprisingly was the IPO route.
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CLASSIFICATION OF DOTCOMS
Business to Business In these Sites Company link itself with its suppliers and vendors. These sites help a company deal with the other businesses it is dependent upon. This is done by supply chain software, which is an integral part of a companys ERP application. Many B2B sites are company and industry specific catering to a community of users or a combination of forward and backward integration. Companies have achieved huge savings in distribution related costs due to their B2B applications. The example, which comes to mind immediately, is that of CISCO Systems, who sell the networking equipment, which powers the net. The future of B2B Dotcoms is bright with its major advantage being of connectivity. As most business nowadays have there own Webster so communicating with them on net becomes very easy. Secondly B2B also has a major benefit in saving of distribution costs. In developed countries it has come up nicely and giving companies of this category lots of advantage. Business to Consumer This is a direct application from a seller of products to an end consumer. This heavily depends that the customers of the company have access to Internet. In these sites the companies aim is to provide the customer with the information about the products of the companies and gather orders. These sites basically thrive on ability of a company to offer innovative products and convenience to the customers. Amazon.com is a typical example. Future of B2C is still the most vulnerable, with an average burn rate of 15 months compared to 23 months for business to business firms, which offer goods and services to other companies. This difference stems from continuing high marketing expenditure by the consumer-facing firms which, in some cases, equates to more than 400 percent of gross profit, The content and software sectors were weakest, containing the highest number of ``burning'' companies. Consolidation in these areas has continued as companys pair up to weather the storm by growing bigger. B2B may be where the money lies today. But B-to-C is what would propel Internet into a mind-boggling game. We believe that middle game or no middle game; the Internet is going to change our lives like nothing else will. In such a game many will love to join the queue, but in the true tradition of a market economy only the best will survive. Consumer to Business These refer to the applications emanating from a consumer to a business, which are actually consumer items but need a business intermediary. Most of the search engines are operating C to B models. Priceline.com offers named price product Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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It is in this context that valuation of software companies; Internet companies and Dotcoms have come to pose formidable challenges to both regulatory bodies and valuers. Regulators the world over have tried to set some guidelines, which will help in the valuation of such concerns. But don't traditional valuation methods focus on these anyway? Don't the existing statutory requirements necessitate the furnishing of such information through annual reports and statement of results and other declarations to various authorities? The point is this: you cannot differentiate a Dotcom from any another company. Ultimately, every business entity has to create and enhance stakeholder value. Any business that does not do this does not deserve to exist. Hence, all normal disclosure norms and valuation methods should be applied to Dotcom and Internet companies. In fact, only the strict application of investment prudence and normal business principles can safeguard the interests of all involved. For example, the management team factor is said to be the most important ingredient for the success of an Internet company or a Dotcom. Or for that matter, Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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When the values of each scenario are weighed, depending on its probability and added, we get a market valuation for Amazon.com as $23 billion, which was the companys value as at October 1999. The above table shows the sensitivity of this valuation to change in probabilities. As seen from the table above relative small valuations lead to big swings in values. The share prices of companies like Amazon.com are extremely volatile because small changes in the markets view of the likelihood of different outcomes affect the current value of these shares quite significantly. Nothing can be done about this volatility. Customer Value Analysis The last difficult aspect of valuing very high- growth companies is relating future scenarios to current performance. Here, classic microeconomic and strategic skills play a critical role because building sound scenarios for a business requires knowledge of what actually drives the creation of value. Five factors drive the customer value analysis of a retailer like Amazon.com: 1. The average revenue per customer per year from purchases made by customers and the revenues from advertisements on its site and from retailers that rent space on it to sell their own products. 2. The total number of customers. 3. The contribution margin per customer 4. The average cost of acquiring a customer. 5. The turnover or churn rate of customers.( proportion of customers lost each year)
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The above table shows how Amazon.com could achieve the financial performance predicted by Scenario B and is compared with the companys current performance. As seen from the above table, the biggest changes over the next 10 years will be the number of customers and the average revenues for each In Scenario B, Amazon.coms customers have increased from 9 million a year in 1999 to 120 million worldwide in the year 2010 84 million in the U.S. and 36 million outside the U.S. It is assumed that Amazon.com will retain its no.1 position in the U.S for online retailing. Also the average revenue per customer has risen from $140 in 1999 to $500 in 2010. It is assumed that Amazon.com will continue to dominate in its core business music and books and will also enter other businesses. The contribution margin per customer before the cost of acquisition is 14%. Though this seems a little high, it is possible in view of Amazon.coms ability to gain offsetting economics of scale; for e.g. by renting out space to other retailers on its website. The cost of acquiring new customers is closely linked to its churn rate of 25%. This churn rate suggests that once a customer is acquired, Amazon.com will be able to retain it for 4 years. The acquisition cost per customer is $50. Though costs will rise once all online customers have been claimed, this is a reasonable figure if the company can achieve brand dominance and advertising economies of scale. The difference in the values of a customer reflects the churn rate and is responsible for the cost of acquisition. Even if a company is not earning very high revenues and is able to retain its customers and hence keep the acquisition costs low, it will be more profitable in the long run viva vis its competitor earning higher revenues and having a higher churn rate. Uncertainty Is Here To Stay By using the DCF approach we can generate reasonable valuations for seemingly unreasonable businesses. Look at what could happen to an investor holding the stocks of Amazon.com for 10 years under all the 4 scenarios. If Scenario A plays out the investor will earn a Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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Net business models, especially in the B2C area, will work best in areas where there are no physical products to be moved. Meaning, they should work well in areas like broking, banking and financial trading-and not so well in grocery or garments. Reason: there is no physical product that I need to cart from factory to consumer, from Mumbai to Delhi. On the other hand, whether I am in Mumbai or Delhi, in areas like share trading the net clearly facilitates transactions and brings down costs. I can buy or sell a share more easily and at lower cost on the net. I can also do most of my banking from home or the office, or even through my cellphone. A business will work on the net if its products are sufficiently standardized. The reason why Dell sells a lot of PCs through the net is because the things going into PCs are no more than glorified commodities - the same Intel chips, the same Microsoft software, and the same add-on hardware. You can also sell high quality branded products through the net, but risk commoditisation in the process. The reason: the net allows the consumer to see all similar products on the same shelf. Thus it would put a Titan watch and a Piaget on the same pedestal. Good for Titan. But for Piaget? The once robust Dotcom sector has seen a stunning reversal of fortunes in the past several months. And no one knows how many more are quietly cutting expenses. Where has IndiaInfo gone now? What is SatyamOnline doing? Whether a company shuts down completely or simply cuts back, its advertising budget invariably suffers. Marketing is the first thing to go. Dotcoms can't live by ads alone. Dot-com closures are accelerating, with Internet startups now closing at the rate of about one a day, according to a new report. The figures bring clarity to the endless announcements of young companies shutting down -- some of which launched amid great fanfare only earlier this year. In the next five years, out of all the companies existing in the Indian Internet space (estimated to be around 500), 90 per cent will die and the rest 10 per cent will survive through consolidation. The consolidation will be done primarily through mergers and acquisitions activity between companies that are technology driven and those having strong business models. Only 12 per cent of all the Indian Internet companies have received a venture capital funding and these are primarily the ones that will experience consolidation activity. The reason why incubation of start-up companies has not taken off in India is that most of the incubator companies and venture capital funds themselves are less than one-year old. Primarily financial compulsions, rather than being driven by complimentary synergies between various companies drive the merger and acquisition activity in India. This is because the Indian start-up ecosystem is not yet mature, and the venture capitalists are themselves learning. The valuations of Dotcom companies have dropped by 50 per cent as compared to those six months back. In fact, the valuations have become more realistic today. There is no parameter to measure valuations, but the stock market. But this is also not real, as the stock market is not applicable to a Dotcom company (because the Zarna Meswani MFM, NMIMS
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General economic and political risks: Changes in economic and trade policies of the Government. Political instability or change in the Government. Regional conflicts with our political neighbors. Changes in fiscal policies of the government. Capital market timing risk.
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CONCLUSION
Any time there is change there is opportunity, and it is this opportunity that Venture Capitalists invest in. Imagine if there was no Hotmail, if venture capitalists hadnt invested in this idea of some unknown person, communication wouldnt have been, as we know it today. The return a venture capitalist gets is not as much about getting a high return for taking risk but more about picking a winner. As Richard Bach has said Look around you this moment: everything you see and touch was once invisible until someone chose to bring it into being. The venture capitalists are the ones who put good ideas into practice.
REFERENCES
McKinsey & Company - US Venture Capital Industry Industry Overview and Economics (Summary Document), September 1998 VALUATION Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies McKinsey & Company, Inc Howard Partners along with Price Waterhouse Coopers, Australia - The Economic Impact of Venture Capital 1998 Indian Venture Capital Association - IVCA Venture Activity 1997 Nasscom Report 1999 - Finance for the Software Industry, pages 115 to 125 The Securities and Exchange Board of India - SEBI (Venture Capital Funds) Regulations, 1996
Mr Girish Deshpande PriceWaterHouse Coopers Global. Mr. Neelesh Raheja Auriga Logic Pvt Ltd. Mr. William Rego Standard Chartered Bank. Mr. Atin Sharma FinVentures. Various Newspapers and Magazines and the World Wide Web.
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