IMPACTS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE COASTAL AREAS OF PAKISTAN MUHAMMAD MANSOOR MOIN

Assignment no Course Title

01 INTRODUCTION TO THE ENVIRONMENT Class : M.Sc(previous) IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE COASTAL AREAS OF PAKISTAN 1. Geography of Pakistan.
Pakistan is located between latitudes 24N and 37N and longitudes 61E to 76E.The total land area of Pakistan is 796,095 km2, Administratively Pakistan is divided into four provinces, namely the Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa & Baluchistan and several areas

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which include State of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Federal Administered Tribal Areas(FATA) and Federally Administered Northern Areas(FANA).The land area of Punjab is 25.8%, Sindh 17.8%, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 12.8% and Baluchistan 43.6% of the total land area of Pakistan.

Population of Pakistan is approximately 174,578,558 (July 2009 est.), the climate of Pakistan is mostly hot and dry, with an average annual temperature of 27C, except in the mountains, which experience cold winters.

2. Pakistan coastline
The coastline of Pakistan extends 1,046 km, 250 falling in Sindh province and 800km in Baluchistan. For the most part, Pakistans coast is sparsely inhabited, except for the metropolitan area of Karachi, which is considered one of the worlds most populated cities, with nearly 20 million residents.

3. Economics And The Uses Of The Coastal Areas

Karachi is the biggest trade and the economic center of the Pakistan. Karachi port handles the majority of the sea borne trade while the surrounding city of the Karachi contributes half of the government revenues and almost 20% of the countys Economy. The following sector of the economy may make use of the Marine and the Coastal environment in Pakistan.

Ports & Shipping Fisheries & Forestry Communication & Roads Coastal Agriculture Boat & Ship Building Coastal Tourism Oil, Gas & Minerals Explorations Pollution Control Management Coastal Power Plants & Energy Sector

The coastal areas of the Pakistan produces about 596,980 metric tons of the marine fishes and 25,000 metric tons of the shrimps while its export only about 131,000 metric tons of fishes and its costs about 7.2 billion. The other Ports of Pakistan may include the PORT QASIM , PORT GAWADAR and small Jettys. Port Qasim remains the busiest port of the Pakistan and it handles the 35% of the trading (17 million tons per annum).It is located at the old channel of the Indus River and Some 35 kilometers east from the Karachi city center.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON COASTAL AREAS OF SINDH, PAKISTAN

THE

Coastline of Sindh
It stretches over 300 kilometers from Hub River to Sir Creek. It has two parts; Karachi coast and Indus Delta. The Indus Delta stretches from Port Qasim to Sir Creek and covers a coastal belt of about 180 kilometers. It is plain and overgrown with mangroves. The

Indus Delta coast is the countrys densest area of mangrove swamps, representing the fifth largest single strand of mangrove forest in the world. Indus Delta region consists of a number of creeks and large tidal channels, many of which are remnant courses of the Indus River. It is difficult to distinguish various mouths of Indus Delta. Hajambro, Turshian, Khobar, Qalandri, Kahr, Bachiar, Wari, Kajhar and Sir Creek are important to mention. The width of the creeks varies from few meters to over kilometer ranging in average depth of 4 to 15 meters.

I Coastal area of Sindh, Pakistan

Ship Breaking Industry:

Provides Steel Scrap and other scrap metals for the Foundries & scrap wooden products, for a variety of the reuse in the local industry. The Ship Breaking Industry of the Gadani has been the prominent source of the pollution because of boom in the ship breaking in Gadani particularly during the 1970s. This Industry has been the biggest source of the Pollution of the heavy metal in the area. In addition, waste oil, bilge oil and the other wastes products are also discharged directly into the inter tidal area of the beach at the sea front.

1. Climate change and vulnerability of Sindh coast

Our planet has experienced damaging climatic change in recent years. It is not that the human race is experiencing climatic wrath first time in history but the alarming side is its frequency, intensity and growing unpredictability. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global world temperature has increased by 0.6C over the last 100 years and is expected to rise further by 1.4 to 5.8C before the end of the present century. Developing nations, especially in our region are more vulnerable to impact of climate related disasters. Its mainly due to weak governance, lack of required infrastructure and technology, prevailing scale of poverty and more important, the lack of vision and commitment to address this mounting threat. Coastal areas are particularly the most vulnerable places. With increasing temperature, glaciers and icecaps are melting fast, raising sea levels. As sea level rises, salt intrusion, tidal vector, inundation of low lying areas and cyclones also increase. It also makes the sea more disastrous. Similarly, all over the world the impact of climate change also affecting the Sindh coast, such as:

o o

IMPACT ON THE AQUATIC LIFE IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES

o o o o

DROUGHT IN SINDH SEA WATER INTRUSION LOSS OF INDUS DELTAIC SYSTEM IMPACT ON LAKES

a.

Impacts On The Aquatic Life :

Accumulation of Toxic and Essential Trace Metals in Fish and Prawns from Keti Bunder Thatta District, Sindh
Toxic and essential trace element, contents of six fish and two prawn species from Keti Bunder were determined by atomic absorption spectrometry. The mean concentrations (g g1 wet weight) of toxic and trace elements in the muscle of fish and prawn were Cd: 0.024-0.035 and 0.025-0.026, As: nd-0.014 and 0.003-0.01, Ni: 0.149-1.420 and 0.155-0.157, Pb: 0.001-3.600 and 0.098-0.100, Zn: 0.460-1.490 and 0.250-1.454, Cu: 0.001-2.800 and 0.003-0.006, Fe: 0.0817.350 and 0.085-0.133, Cr: 0.209-2.309 and 1.706-1.921. Level of Pb and Cu in Pampus argenteus and Tenualosa ilisha and Cr in most of the fish and prawn species exceeded the recommended limits.

Recent years have witnessed significant attention to the problems of heavy metals contamination which have been broadly studied. Heavy metals discharged into the marine environment can damage both marine species diversity and ecosystem due to their toxicity . Fish are often at the top of the aquatic food chain and may concentrate large amounts of some metals from the water (Mansour and Sidky, 2002). Furthermore, fish is one of the most sensitive indicators of trace metals pollution and risk

potential of human consumption . In natural life, some trace metals are essential at low levels but toxic at higher concentrations. They enter in the human body through food chain causing different diseases and damages to the humans. Keti Bunder is located at a distance of about 200 km (125 miles) south-east of Karachi in Thatta district of Sindh province, Pakistan. River Indus joins Arabian Sea at Keti Bunder. Therefore Keti Bunder is recipient of heavy/trace metals load from five rivers of Punjab through river Indus as well as from Karachi City (110 million gallon of domestic wastewater per day and 37000 tons of industrial waste/annum from 30000 industrial units). Prawns, shrimp and fin fish from Keti Bunder are supplied within the country as well as exported to European countries and Middleeast. Present study was carried out to assess metal contamination in some important species of fish and prawn from Keti Bunder and evaluate the health risk for local population as well as for the population of other countries importing fish and prawn from the study area. Table I.- Sex and length of fish samples. Sex and fork length of fish samples is given in Table I. Fish species Male/female (n) Fork length (cm) Pampus argenteus Sardinella sindensis Labeo rohita Platycephalus indicus Kowala coval Tenualosa ilisha 5/5 6/4 5/5 4/6 7/3 4/6 24 03 (19-28) 18 04 (17-22) 41 05 (40-45) 37 05 (30-42) 07 01 (06-08) 32 03 (30-35)

Recoveries (%) for different metals were 99, 98, 102, 97, 101, 95, 97, 96 for Cd, As, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cu, Fe and Cr respectively. Detection limits were 0.001 mg/L for Cd, Ni, Pb, Zn, Fe and Cr but 0.0004 mg/L for As and Cu. The concentrations of toxic and trace metals (g g1) in muscle of fish and prawn are summarized in Table II and Table III respectively. During present studies mean values of Cd, As, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cu, Fe and Cr (g g1) were 0.024, 0.014, 0.180, 3.600, 1.425, 0.002, 0.081, 0.240 for Pampus argenteus, 0.035, 0.001, 0.149, 0.133, 1.490, 0.001, 0.247 and 0.209 for Labeo rohita, 0.032 nd, 0.266, 0.001, 1.029, 0.001, 0.113 and 2.232 for Platycephalus indicus and 0.030, 0.001, 1.420, 0.690, 0.460, 2.800, 7.350 and 0.234 for Tenualosa ilisha, respectively. When metal contents detected in present studies were compared with the permissible limits, it was found that Cd concentrations in all samples of fish and prawn analysed were below the Turkish Food Code (TFC, 2002) and European Union (EU, 2001) limit of 0.05 mg kg1. The limit set by the Malaysian Food Regulation (1985) is 1.00 (g g1 wet wt.). According to Hong Kong Environmental Protection Department (HKEPD, 1987) the recommended limit is 2.00, United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA, 1993) 3.70, United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 2000) 0.491, Food Standards Australia New Zealand (FSANZ, 2002) 0.200 and EUROPA (2004) 0.100. Concentrations of arsenic in all fish and prawn samples were much below the permissible limit of USFDA (1993b) which is 76 mg kg1. Ni concentrations in all the fish (except Tenualosa ilisha) and prawn samples were well within the toxic limit of 70-80 mg kg1 set by USFDA (1993c) and the limit set by USEPA (2000) 1.00 g g1. Pb contents in all prawn samples were within the different permissible limits but Pampus argenteus and Tenualosa ilisha exceeded international limits of EU, TCF, USEPA and toxic limit of FAO. Pampus argenteus exceeded Malaysian Food Regulation, Pampus argenteus, Labeo rohita and Tenualosa ilisha samples exceeded FSANZ guidelines and Pampus argenteus,

Sardinella sindensis, Labeo rohita and Tenualosa ilisha samples exceeded EUROPA guidelines for human consumption. For zinc (g g1) the permissible limit by Canadian Food Standard is 100, by Hungarian Standard 80, by Australian Standard 10 (Papagiannis et al., 2004) and by Turkish Standards (TFC, 2002) it is 50 mg kg1 . Zn concentrations in all fish and prawn samples analyzed were below these limits. For Cu (g g1) Canadian Food Standard is 100, Hungarian standard 60, the range of international standard 10-100, Turkish acceptable limit 20 (Papagiannis et al., 2004), the permissible limits set by the Malaysian Food Regulation (1985) 30, USEPA (2000) Limit 120, and toxic limit for fish by FAO (1983) 30 mg kg1. Cu concentrations in all fish and prawn samples analyzed were below the corresponding authorized limits.

Table II.- Concentrations of metals in fish species from Keti Bunder and their comparison with other study areas a. Fish species Pampu s argente us Present study 0.024 0.04b (0.0120.035) 0.014 0.001 (0.0110.016) 0.180 0.11 (0.1400.190) 3.600 0.314 (3.112 3.950) 1.425 0.186 (1.143 1.715) 0.002 0.001 (0.0010.003) 0.081 0.004 (0.0660.090) 0.240 0.030 (0.210 0.761) Pakista n1 Korea2 0.061 0.021 1.621 1.521 0.335 0.134 0.031 2.06 0.036 0.211 0.383 0.680 0.086 0.073 Area Cd As Ni Pb Zn Cu Fe Cr

India3 Sardine lla sindens is Labeo rohita

Present study

0.031 0.003 (0.0270.036)

nd

98.5 0.244 0.003 (0.2260.248)

1.50 0.200 0.002 (0.1920.206) 0.133 0.002 (0.124 0.143) 2.670

5.501.215 0.136 (0.956 1.352) 1.490 0.109 (1..345 -1.612) 0.589

0.007 0.001 (0.0060.01) 0.001 0.001 (0.0000.003) 0.620

0.104 0.001 (0.098 0.106) 0.247 0.002 (0.2230.249) 0.930 1.813 0.160 (1.432 1.921) 0.209 0.003 (0.1910.213)

Present study

0.035 0.04 (0.0300.042)

0.001 0.001 (0.0000.004) 0.155

0.149 0.002 (0.1380.152) 0.680

Pakista n1 River Ravi4

3.915

1.155

2.50 1.32

3.40 1.53

Rawal Lake5 Platyce phalus indicus Present study

0.003 0.032 0.030 (0.0120.045) nd 0.266 0.003 (0.2610.275) 0.31 0.17 0.00 0.06 0.02 0.98

0.001 0.001 (0.0000.005) 1.029 0.060 (0.515-1.041)

Qatar6

0.19 0.03

ROPM E7 Sea area Kowala coval

0.06

15.29

29.20

Present study

0.033 0.040 (0.0110.073)

nd

0.286 0.003 (0.2440.298)

0.002 0.001 (0.0000.004)

1.184 0.070 (0.6541.942)

0.028 0.003 (0.0200.031)

0.189 0.002 (0.1860.194)

2.309 0.120 (1.8492.415)

Tenual osa ilisha

Present study

0.030 0.030 (0.0290.082)

0.001 0.001 (0.0000.005) 0.095

1.420 0.152 (1.2181.632) 0.004

0.690 0.060 (0.560.711) 0.850

0.460 0.100 (0.3780.614) 1.650

2.800 0.310 (1.9692.965) 1.023

7.350 0.760 (5.3497.695) 0.265

0.234 0.030 (0.1930.256)

Pakista n1

0.220

0.080

Cr contents in all the fish and prawn samples were well within the toxic limit of USFDA (1993a). But all the fish and prawn samples had higher Cr concentrations as compared to the limits of 0.200 set by FSANZ (2002) and 0.100 by EUROPA (2004). Sardinella sindensis, Platycephalus indicus and Kowala coval samples exceeded the Cr guidelines set by USEPA (2000) 0.491 and NEPA (1997) 500 g g1 for human consumption. Table III.- Toxic and essential element contents (mean, minimum and maximum) in prawn species from Keti Bunder, Pakistana. Prawn species 0.024 Penaeus indicus 0.04b (0.0210.032) Penaeus indicus pencilla ntus 0.025 0.03 (0.0070.058) 0.01 0.001 (0.0090.014) 0.003 0.001 (0.0000.006) 0.157 0.08 (0.1420.240) 0.155 0.05 (0.1160.207) 0.101 0.01 (0.0890.114) 0.098 0.08 (0.0520.181) 1.454 0.08 (1.032 1.542) 0.250 0.050 (0.1910.282) 0.006 0.01 (0.0020.171) 0.003 0.05 (0.0000.058) 0.133 0.40 (0.009 0.542) 0.085 0.32 (0.0610.396) 1.921 0.14 (1.626 1.983) 1.706 0.16 (1.212 1.824) Cd As Ni Pb Zn Cu Fe Cr

The potential hazards of metals transferred to humans are probably dependent on the amount of
fish/prawn consumed by an individual. Average intake of fish in Pakistan is plus 2 kg per capita per annum (National policy and strategy for fisheries and aquaculture development in Pakistan, 2007). If an adult consumes 5.5 g day1 of Pampus argenteus, Sardinella sindensis, Labeo rohita, Platycephalus indicus, Kowala coval, Tenualosa ilisha from Keti Bunder he would take in approximately 19.8 g day1 (138.6 g week1), 1.342 g day1 (9.394 g week1), 0.820 g day1 (5.74 g week1), 1.463 g day1 (10.241 g week1), 1.573 g day1 (11.011 g week1), 7.81 g day1 (54.67 g week1) of lead, respectively. If the consumer has to take Penaeus indicus and Penaeus indicus pencillantus for 7 days, then he would consume 0.55 g day1 (3.850 g week1), 0.548 g day1 (3.836 g week1) of Pb. This is lower than the provisional tolerable daily (weekly) intakes suggested by the WHO (1993) for Pb which is 245 g day1 (1715 g week1) for a 70 kg person. The estimates of JEFCA (2000) regarding Provisional Daily Intake (PTDI) for Pb are 25 g kg1 and JEFCA (2003) recommended Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake (PTWI) for lead 1.5 mg week1 which is equivalent to 0.21 mg day1. The dietary intake of fish and prawn estimated from the present studies is well below these dietary intakes and the tested fish and prawn samples not represent any known risk to health for local population regarding Pb intake.

The recommended daily amount indicated for Cr by the US National Research Council is about 60 g day1 (420 g week1) for a 70 kg person (NRC, 1989). An adult who consumes 5.5 g day1 of Pampus argenteus, Sardinella sindensis, Labeo rohita, Platycephalus indicus, Kowala coval, Tenualosa ilisha, from Keti Bunder he would take Cr approximately 1.320 g day1 (9.240 g week1), 9.972 g day1 (69.801 g week1), 1.150 g day1 (8.850 g week1), 12.276 g day1 (85.9320 g week1), 12.810 g day1 (89.670 g week1), 1.287 g day1 (9.007 g week1), respectively. If the consumer were to take Penaeus indicus and Penaeus indicus pencillantus for 7 days, then he would consume 10.566 g day1 (73.962 g week1), 9.383 g day1 (65.681 g week1) of Cr, respectively. This is lower than the recommended daily (weekly) amount indicated by NRC (1989) for all fish and prawn species. If an adult consumes approximately 5.5 g of fish or prawn per day, then a person who consumes prawn or fish collected from Keti Bunder would consume Cd approximately 0.171 g (0.031 g g15.5 g ) from fish or 0.143 g (0.026 g g15.5 g) from prawn each day. If the consumer takes the prawn or fish for 7 consecutive days, then he will consume 1.197 g Cd (0.1717 days) from fish or 1.029 g Cd (0.1477 days) from prawn. Expected Cd intake from Keti Bunder is lower than the recommended limit for the provisional tolerable weekly intake of Cd (6.70-8.30 g adult1) recommended by FAO/WHO (1984), JEFCA (2003) which is 490 g and Provisional Daily Intake (PTDI) of JEFCA (1993) which is 0.06 mg day1. JEFCA (1989) established 7000 g week1 kg1 as provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) for zinc. The Provisional Maximum Tolerable Daily Intake (PMTDIs) set by JECFA (2003) for zinc is 1.0 mg kg1 (equivalent to 70 mg day1 for a 70 kg adult). PTDI for arsenic is 0.12 mg day1 (JEFCA, 1993). The dietary intakes of fish and prawn estimated from the present studies is well below these dietary intakes and the tested fish and prawn samples do not represent any known risk to health regarding zinc and arsenic intake. A linear regression correlation test was performed to investigate correlations between metal concentrations in fish. The values of correlation coefficients between metal concentrations in fish are given in Table IV. There is a very strong correlation between iron and copper (r = 1.000),

correlations for copper and nickel, arsenic and lead, iron and nickel, and iron and manganese are strong, with corresponding r values of 0.995, 0.984, 0.994, respectively. A positive correlation exists between Cd and Zn, As and Zn, Pb and Zn, Cr and Fe, Cr and Ni with corresponding r values of 0.494, 0.385, 0.248, 0.439, 0.343, respectively. Correlations between Cr and Zn, Fe and Pb, Ni and Pb (r=0.008, 0.038, 0.077 respectively) are very weak. Correlations between other metals are negative.

This study provide information on toxic and trace metal concentrations in six fish and two prawn species from Keti Bunder, Pakistan and potential health risk for local population due to their consumption. The majority of toxic and trace metal concentrations in the fish and prawn samples analyzed were well within the permitted limits set by various authorities and do not pose any health risk for the local population due to low intake of fish and prawn. But the contamination of Pb and Cu in Pampus argenteus, Tenualosa ilisha and Cr in most of the fish and prawn samples may pose threat for the importers due to high per capita consumption of fish.

b.Climate change impacts on water resources :

CICERO (2000) has estimated 0.9C increase in temperature by 2020, doubling to 1.8C by 2050.Scenario for sea level may be 20cm by 2020 and 30cm by 2050. These synthetic scenarios are consistent with the results from climate models. The CSIRO9 model predicts a 17% increase in wet (summer) season rainfall in South Asia for doubling of CO2.Climate changes could have major effects on precipitation runoff. With increase in temperature, evaporation is expected to increase. Masood and Ullah (1991) examined impacts of future climate change on water availability in the Indus River basin. They used a 30- year historical discharge data for comparing the results. The UBC- Mongla watershed model was used to forecast inflows to the

Mongle reservoir. The model requires daily temperature and precipitation data as inputs and then they demonstrate observation.

Evaporation rates from lakes, ponds, ground water, flowing water and water supply systems are expected to increase as a result of rise in temperature.

System Evaporation:

C. Drought in Sindh :

Due to global climatic changes, frequency of droughts has increased in recent years. The drought phenomenon (dry year) has been observed to occur in 4 out of 10 years instead of 3 out of 10 years. The precipitation during 1997-2000 has been exceptionally low i.e.50% of the normal. This resulted in low river flows and not only precious human lives were lost but also thousands of livestock heads died due to shortage of fodder crops. According to one estimate, only during 1999-2000, 143 humans and 2.48 million livestock died due to severe drought conditions. The loss of livestock to drought was about 66% in Sindh. Heavy direct losses due to animal mortality, production losses and distress sales of animals have been widely reported. If the productivity levels can be restored to levels similar to the rest of the region, then Pakistan should be able to resolve medium to long-term food security concerns.

d.

Loss of Indus deltaic region and mangroves :

The Indus delta covers an area of some 600, 000 hectares stretching about 200 km to South of Karachi to beyond the India-Pakistan border. This is a very large area, comparable to the forested area of the Sundarbans of Bangladesh, the largest area of mangrove forest in the world.

However, not all of the area in the Indus delta is covered by mangrove forest. There are 17 major creeks, extensive mud flats and about 160,000 hectares of mangroves forests; of these about 50,000 hectares can be classified as dense mangrove stands. The most significant characteristic of Indus delta is that it receives an average of only about 220 mm of rainfall per year, and sometime no rainfall at all. The Sundarbans in contrast receive 10-20 times this amount.

i.

Gradual Increase in Sea Level

Geophysical factors affecting the mangrove ecosystem include existing

problem and the threat of global warming. The general phenomenon of sea level rise is attributed to global warming. It is reported that over the last 100 years the sea level near Karachi has been rising at a rate of 1.1mm per year and this may increase with global warning. Pakistan has been included in the list of ten countries most vulnerable to impacts of rising sea levels. Once it has been estimated a land loss of about 1,700 km2 in the Indus Delta due to sea encroachment over the last half century. Sea-level rise may cause stronger wave action, higher tides and greater probability of surges, all of which may cause coastal erosion and depletion of mangroves, aggravating current patterns of physical damage. This serious threat to mangrove ecosystem is harmful if coupled with reduce silt deposition. It is estimated that mangroves with significant discharge from the land can maintain themselves by accumulating deposited silt wit sea level rise as high as 2.5 mm/year.

ii.

Declining of mangroves forest

Mangroves provide double protection - the first layer of mangroves with their flexible branches and interweaved roots hanging in the coastal waters absorb the first shock waves. The second layer of tall mangroves then operates like a wall withstanding much of the wave energy. The Indus mangrove ecosystem was built up as a result of the freshwater and silts flows from the river Indus, and is critically dependent upon it. The shortage of rainfall, the high

temperatures and the decreasing flows of freshwater down the Indus as a result of dams and barrages means that salinity levels in the creeks often exceeds that of sea water (45 ppt is common in comparison to the usual 35 ppt of sea water ). Under these conditions it is probably safe to say that Indus delta mangroves are the largest arid climate mangroves in the world. In 1970 the mangroves forest area was estimated 260,000ha. That has been reduced in 2005 to 86,000ha. Its a massive loss to coastal area on the basis of climate change

e.

The Manchar lake and climate change Pakistans biggest freshwater shallow lake

The Manchar lake, Pakistans largest shallow sweet water lake is in trouble. The dumping of effluents collected from the Right bank outfall Drain project into the Main Nara valley Drain that is linked to the Manchar lake has raised the level of pollution. Reckless fishing practices put into action by the fishermen are not helping matters either and they were using DDT mixed in cereal grains as bait. As a result the fish production has gone down, agriculture is suffering and even the migratory birds have stopped visiting the lake. The native fisher folk have been forced to migrate

and those left behind barely make enough to live on. They also suffer from varied diseases due to lack of clean drinking water. The country faces risks of variablilty in monsoon rains, floods and extended droughts. Water flows in the rivers are foing to be cut by as much as 30%-50% the monsoon will be even more unpredictable and even though there will be more rain it will be more concentrated, which will result in more floods. As one of the sources of the freshwater in Manchar lake are the hill torrents from the Kirthar Mountains this lake will be affected by climate change and the change in monsoon patterns.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE COASTAL AREAS OF BALUCHISTAN, PAKISTAN

Baluchistan Coastline
The coastal zone of Baluchistan province, from near Karachi to the Hingol River to the west, is characterized primarily by rocky shores and sand dunes. The Baluchistan coastal belt falls into two districts, Gwadar (the Mekran coast) and Lasbela, each with its own distinctive

physical, biological, social and economic environments. The coastline in Gwadar district is about 600 kilometers long, running from the Iranian border at Jiwani to the Hingol River in the east bay, beaches and headlands provide natural harbours, around which 35 fishing communities have developed. The population is about 400,000. Four small urban centres-Jiwani, Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara account for more than half of the coastal population. The climate of the Mekran coast is semi-tropical and arid. On average, it receives less than 150 millimeters of precipitation a year. Drought is common and may persist for several years. The summers are hot and the winter mild. The soils of this desert area are for the most part, saline, supporting little natural vegetation cover. Supplies of fresh water are very limited. This has restricted the development of human settlements, agriculture and livestock rearing. There are four main drainage basins, but only the Hingol River carrires perennial flows.

The second coastal belt, the Lasbela, lies between the Hingol River and the Hab River, which forms the border with Sindh. This coastline is dominated by Sonmiani Bay. Miani Hor, the large lagoon formed at the mouth of the Porali River, is a distinctive feature of Sonmiani Bay. The climate is similar to the Mekran, with erratic precipitation, received mostly during the summer months. Much of the district is an alluvial plain, and soils are fertile. About 70% of the population is engaged in agriculture. While Lasbela has a population of 315,000, there are only two fishing villages on the coast, at Gadani and Damb. About 11,500 fishers supply the Karachi market with fresh fish and shrimp.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE COASTAL AREAS OF BALOCHISTAN

ON

Similarly all over the world Balochistan coast is also a victim of climate change, and its plenty of affects is being on Balochistan coast the major area of coast such as jiwani, pasni, Gwadar and Omara are highly victimized and their people is being confronted with climate

change problem. The impact of climate change can distinguish in three ways Physical, Biological and Socioeconomic environment.

a.

Physical Environment
i.

Drought

Balochistan has a previous history of droughts but the recent droughts (1997-2002) were the longest dry spells in many years. Balochistan is an arid region with occasional rain events. Drought is an insidious hazard of nature, although it has scores of definitions. Drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more. This deficiency results in a water shortage for some livelihood activity to a community group, or environmental sector. The districts of Kalat, Chaghi, Naukundi and lasbela have been severely affected by drought at many occasions. The Balochistan regions frequently under drought actually fall in a dry region with normally very little rain. The monthly average rain in these areas is between 2 and 25 mm which is very low as compared to other parts of the country. In 1997 - 2002, a famine like situation developed due to lack of rain in the region. The main reason of drought in Balochistan was the deficiency of rainfall.

The drought in affected parts of the province led to the following consequences;

Rise in food prices in the affected areas

A very low level of food in-take causing different diseases and malnutrition to affected populations

Fodder shortage affecting livestock-rearing, which plays an important role in the rural economy.

Apple trees and orchards destroyed by almost 80% Migration of people from drought affected areas. Heavy cost incurred by government in relief works in the affected areas - 22 out of the 28 districts sought assistance in water and food.

Increased Health Hazards: The drought also contributed to the incidence of Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF). The disease was first noticed in September 2000 in Loralai district of the province. Several people are said to have succumbed to the disease which was triggered by the drought. Malnutrition, T.B and Hepatitis affected thousands of local communities especially women and children during the period. 80% of Livestock Completely Perished in severely affected areas

ii.

Temperature

Communities have observed that temperatures have increased over the last 30 years such that there has been an overall perceptible increase in temperature all year round. Summers have become significantly hotter, and winters have become warmer. As a result, the cropping season for wheat has shifted forward and harvesting time now occurs earlier, indicating that the warm weather now lasts longer. Annual increase in temperature along the coast of Pakistan, shown below in this graph some fluctuations in temperature but if we consider average so it is increasing, this temperature was monitored between 1981 to 2003.

iii.

Water Resource
Balochistan is a water scarce province of Pakistan and is known as the 'fruitbasket' of

Pakistan because of production high quality fruit, which is the major source of income especially in the uplands of the province. Agriculture and live stock rearing have been the main source of income for majority of the population. The water resources of the province consist of ground water and surface water. These cannot be considered dependable sources for water The groundwater table lies between 80 and 90 feets when it rains, the water table rises. In 1997/98, prior to the long drought of 19982006, the water table lay at 40ft. In the 1980s and 1970s, groundwater could be found at 100 ft. Thirty years ago, the area also had springs which have since dried up due to persistent drought and irregular rainfall. In areas where the water reservoir is hydraulically connected with saline water, such as the Bela plain, seawater intrusion into the aquifer is likely this could be danger for domestic and agriculture needs. Traditionally,

communities over there would build rainwater harvest ponds and use the stored water for domestic and purposes.

b.

Biological Environment
Trees and shrubs are used for fuel and construction materials, and herbs for food and

medicine. Mangroves forest occurs along the coast in Districts Lasbela and Gwadar. The Forest Department controls 297 hectares. 7,340 hectares in three locations: Miani Hor (3,100 hectares), Kalmat Hor (2,160 hectares) and Jiwani (2,080 hectares).The dominant species are Avicennia marina, Rhizophora mucronata and Ceriops tagal. The marine and coastal resources are a primary source of nutrition for coastal communities as well. However, severe water shortage has affected the natural vegetation of the area, which is under environmental stress as a result of seawater intrusion. This is seen in reduced mangrove cover and breeding grounds for many commercially important species of fish and crustaceans. Fish stocks are declining and commercially important marine species are fast disappearing. Wildlife common to this area was deer, which roamed the area freely at one time. The deer population has fallen drastically due to hunting, habitat depletion/deforestation, and population growth. Twenty to thirty years ago, many species of snake and lizard could be found in the area. This is no longer the case, but communities say they feel safer for it.

C.

Socioeconomic Environment

Inevitably impact of climate change direct effect on the human life, because if the adequate resources are not available most of the people change their occupation, some does migration and overall life is disrupted.

i.

Migration
There is no permanent out-migration from the area as a result of droughts and fresh

water scarcity, although people do move out temporarily in search of alternative sources of income and, in some cases, to pursue higher education.

ii.

Livestock
Thirty years ago, there were open grazing grounds where livestock could be let loose

to graze and return home on their own; no supervision was required. In the following 10 years, these grazing areas grew smaller largely due to population pressure. Up to 20 years ago, livestock was still using these smaller grazing grounds but needed herding. At present, most areas have come under cultivation and there are no open grazing areas left. Since livestock needs to be stall fed, fodder needs to be grown. Due to yearly droughts, not much fodder can be grown: this reduced quantity of fodder has adversely affected the health of livestock.

Affects of drought on livestock of Balochistan. In fact, drought situation has inflicted heavy losses to the province's water resources, the agriculture, the livestock, the rural

environment and the ecosystem as well as the socioeconomic fabric of the rural society. For example, the abrupt decline in rainfall in most of the upland caused a complete drying off of the surface drinking water resources and decreased the water output from spring and tube wells. This caused water to drop in most of the valleys. Consequently, the otherwise green valleys were converted into arid zones. This all had direct or indirect affect on the livestock of Balochistan, since, most of the livestock consist of sheep and goat therefore they are the most affected due to lack of area for grazing. According to the Special Report of the FAO, the World Food Program Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Pakistan released on July 11, 2001, as a result of the prolonged drought, heavy livestock losses were reported in Balochistan. Livestock is the major livelihood and about 70% of the households own it. Out of the 55 million livestock heads of the country about 23 million or nearly 42% belong to Baluchistan.

Livestock and agriculture dependency on rainfall. The provincial economy entirely depends on agriculture products especially livestock and its byproducts. Livestock

mainly dependent on 93% of the rangelands present in the province as 90% of the feed requirements of livestock particularly of small ruminants are met from these rangelands. As matter of fact, livestock is proportional to the development of agriculture to a considerable extend. Hence both depend on rainfall as result they both face continual drought.

iii.

Agriculture

The major crops are wheat, rice, sorghum, fruit, vegetables and oilseeds. Balochistans agriculture is the mainstay of the provincial economy, and employs 67% of the total workforce. With an increase in temperatures, there is a strong likelihood that the productivity of wheat might be negatively affected, although the extent and magnitude of this impact will depend on environmental conditions. This implies that there will be some reduction in wheat yields in the coming decades. Seawater intrusion has greatly reduced the physical area of land for any use, be it agriculture, livestock rearing, or forestry. Water availability for both agricultural and domestic purposes has also drastically decreased, and finally, due to the intrusion of seawater, the high groundwater table has made the land saline and in some areas even waterlogged, hence unfit for agricultural purposes and rendered barren. Due to the scarcity of water, communities only grow wheat as a cash crop once a year in the kharif season, and that too in synchronization with the rains. In the rabi season, they grow barley and pulses.

iv.

Women

The needs and requirements of the people of the area have increased: life has become tougher for the people, including its women. Inflation has increased, and women need to work in the fields alongside their men to prepare the land for crops, an activity that was traditionally carried out by men. At the same time women still carry out their traditional responsibilities: fetching water, herding livestock, and tending their homes. Their workload has therefore increased. Due to the decrease in availability of water, women have to walk longer distances to fetch water. It now takes women longer to finish their household chores and fulfill the needs of their families. They have to stay out longer herding their livestock as grass resources have decreased and it takes animals longer to graze their fill. All this leaves women with very little time to indulge in additional income generating activities such as traditional needle work, tent making and mat weaving (using local grass or peesh).

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PAKISTAN

It is now well established that emissions due to anthropogenic sources during the last century have resulted in the excessive emission of greenhouse gases. This has raised the temperature of the earths atmosphere at a much faster rate than in previous centuries, resulting in global warming, i.e., the warming of the earths atmosphere .Past and present climate trends and variability appear as increasing surface air temperature, which is more obvious in winter than in summer.

Increasing trends in temperature have been observed across Asia in the range of 13C. The variability of rainfall has increased geographically, across seasons, and annually in Asia over the last few decades. Decreasing trends in rainfall patterns along Pakistans coastal areas and arid plains have also been observed. In Pakistan, the IPCC reports an increase of 0.61.0C in mean temperature in the coastal areas since the early 1900s, and a 1015% decrease in precipitation in the coastal belt and hyper-arid plains.

Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change because it is located in a region where temperature increases are expected to be higher than the global averages. The land area is mostly arid and semi-arid and the Himalayan glaciers, which are reported to be receding, primarily feed its rivers and its economy is largely based on agriculture. The country faces risks of variability in monsoon rains, floods and extended droughts.

Sources
Climate Change and Water Resources in South Asia (2005)
by

M. Monirul Qader Mirza, Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad

Interngovermental Oceanographic Commission

Workshop Report NO. 114

International journal of geology (Degradation of Indus Delta Mangroves in pakistan)

issue 3, Vol. 2007

Climate

change, poverty and environment OXFAM conservation strategy IUCN

Balochistan

 Provincial

Disaster Management Commission Balochistan

www.en.wikipedia.org SATELLITE

IMAGES : http://glovis.usgs.gov/

i.1. Baluchistan & Sindh Coastline.

RESEARCH PAPER : Accumulation

of Toxic and Essential Trace Metals in Fish and Prawns from Keti Bunder Thatta District, Sindh. Effects of drought in the livestock sector of Baluchistan.