VIENNA MUN CLUB

STUDY GUIDE
JANUARY S ESSION 2012 IRAN S NUCLEAR PROGRAM

HISTORICAL OVERVIEW
The nuclear program of Iran was launched in the 1950s with the help of the United States as part of the Atoms for Peace program. The support, encouragement and participation of the United States and Western European governments in Iran's nuclear program continued until the 1979 Iranian Revolution that toppled the Shah of Iran. After the 1979 revolution, the Iranian government temporarily disbanded elements of the program, and then revived it with less Western assistance than during the pre-revolution era. Especially, the diplomatic ties between the US and Iran immensely changed after the revolution. In 2002 USPresident George Bush described Iraq, Iran and North Korea as an "axis of evil", warning of the proliferation of longrange missiles being developed in these countries. The speech caused outrage in Iran and is condemned by reformists and conservatives alike. The US and Western states accuse Iran of trying to build nuclear weapons, but Iran has consistently denied allegations and claims its nuclear program is solely aimed at generating power. International interest in Iran was heightened dramatically in the summer of 2002, when the existence of two nuclear sites was revealed by an exiled Iranian resistance group. Within a year, the world realized that Iran had built or was building everything needed to produce enriched uranium, which could fuel nuclear weapons as well as nuclear reactors. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, and has enriched uranium to less than 5%, consistent with fuel for a civilian nuclear power plant. Teheran also claims that it was forced to resort to secrecy after US pressure caused several of its nuclear contracts with foreign governments to fall through. After public allegations about Iran's previously undeclared nuclear activities, Iran temporarily suspended its uranium enrichment programme and allowed tougher UN inspections of its nuclear facilities. The same year, the IAEA launched an investigation that concluded in November 2003 that Iran had systematically failed to meet its obligations under its NPT safeguards agreement to report those activities to the IAEA. Nevertheless, the IAEAs report stated that there was no evidence of links to a nuclear weapons program. The IAEA Board of Governors delayed a formal finding of non-compliance until September 2005, and (in a rare nonconsensus decision) reported that non-compliance to the UN Security Council in February 2006. After the IAEA Board of Governors reported Iran's noncompliance with its safeguards agreement to the United Nations Security Council, the Council demanded that Iran suspend its enrichment programs. The Council imposed sanctions after Iran refused to do so. Throughout the years, the UN Security Council tightened economic and trade sanctions on Tehran. In October 2009 the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany offered Iran to enrich its uranium abroad, Iran refused to accept this proposal.

THE CURRENT SITUATION

Increasing tensions between the US and Iran dominated political disputes around Irans nuclear program. In November 2011, the US administration publicly accused Irans government to be involved in a plot to kill the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the United States in a restaurant in Washington with the help of a Mexican drug cartel. While the United States declared its commitment to holding Iran accountable for its actions, Iranian officials vehemently denied any involvement and called this an accusation based on nothing but an unsubstantiated claim of one state. A recent IAEA report, based on the intelligence of 10 governments, expressed concern about Iran's nuclear activities detailing "credible" information that Tehran may have worked on developing nuclear weapons before 2003. Yet the report does not conclude that Iran has restarted its nuclear weapons program, which was officially suspended in late 2003. The IAEA certified that Iran has not diverted any of its stockpiled low-enriched uranium for military purposes. The report seems largely to confirm what most analysts and intelligence services already believed: that Iran has studied how to design a nuclear weapon. But it offered no new evidence on how close Iran is to finishing one, analysts say, or even whether it is actively trying to build one. Still, reactions to the report have been severe. Iran has been hit by four rounds of UN sanctions now and the US and the EU have imposed increasingly tight economic sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program. Furthermore, the US and Israel have not ruled out a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran does not stop its nuclear program. Earlier in 2011, Iran had proposed to reopen negotiations about its controversial nuclear program with the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. The Islamic Republic of Iran is faced with mounting economic discontent at home as economic sanctions against Iran have begun to bite. Internationally, Iran is locked in a stalemate with the west over its nuclear program and it has recently responded to attempts at banning its oil imports by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway in the Gulf where one-fifth of the world's oil passes in tankers. The already existent tensions between the United States and Iran have dangerously ratcheted up as naval officials with America's Fifth Fleet warned any attempt by Iran to close a strategically vital oil route through the Strait of Hormuz would "not be tolerated". Also, the sale of $30bn worth of fighter jets to Saudi Arabia has been finalized, the Obama administration has announced, in a move that boosts the military strength of a key US ally in the Middle East. For months the evidence has been growing that the conflict is getting more aggressive and dangerous, as recent events show: Assassinations of Iranian scientists and a general, cyber warfare through a computer virus that is believed to have destroyed one-fifth of Irans nuclear centrifuges, attacks on military and missile installations in Iran, spy drones, the storming of the British Embassy in Tehran and naval exercises by Iran to show military strength all these events sharpen the situation and cause an even stronger call for peaceful negotiations. 3

UN ACTIONS
The key UN-documents on Irans nuclear program are six Resolutions passed by the SC from 2006 to 2010. Resolution 1696 was adopted by the United Nations Security Council on July 31, 2006. It was proposed by China, France, Germany, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States, and it demanded that Iran halt its uranium enrichment program. Iran's failure to respond satisfactorily led to UNSC Resolution 1737 of 23 December 2006, in which sanctions were applied. The sanctions banned the supply of nuclear-related technology and materials and froze the assets of key individuals and companies related to the enrichment program. It took place two months after the creation of a draftresolution, which was amended several times after objections from Russia and China. Those sanctions were subsequently strengthened by Resolution 1747 of March 24, 2007. In Resolution 1747, the Council decided to tighten the sanctions imposed on Iran in connection with that nation's nuclear program. It also resolved to impose a ban on arms sales and to step up the freeze on assets already in place. UN Security Council Resolution 1803 was adopted on March 3, 2008. The Security Council of the United Nations, acting pursuant to Article 41 of Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, required Iran to cease and desist from any and all uranium enrichment. It also required Iran to stop any research and development associated with centrifuges and uranium enrichment. However, Iran has not stopped its enrichment, and, assuming that it is enriching uranium for exclusively peaceful purposes (e.g. development of nuclear power plants), has the right to continue under the IAEA's standards and practices. UN Security Council Resolution 1835 was adopted on September 27, 2008. The resolution was in response to the September 15 report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that stated that Iran had not suspended uranium-enrichment-related activities. United Nations Security Council Resolution 1929 was adopted June 9, 2010. After recalling resolutions 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803 and 1835 concerning the Iranian nuclear program issues, the Council noted that Iran had failed to comply with previous Security Council resolutions concerning its nuclear program and imposed further sanctions on the country. Further steps against Teheran could lead to a possible escalation of the conflict. After the European Union debated further sanctions against the Islamic Republic a week ago, Iran threatened to stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if foreign sanctions were imposed on its crude exports over its nuclear ambitions. About a third of all sea-borne oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and the US has already made clear that they will ensure safe passage. 4

INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT
The Russian Federation Iran and Russia have long been suspicious of each other. They clashed over disputed territories in World Wars I and II, Soviet support for Iran's Communist party during the Cold War, and rights to the oil-rich Caspian Sea. But the fall of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi and later of the Soviet Union led to increased cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. Trade between the two powers has increased dramatically in recent years, especially in petroleum, nuclear energy, and arms sales. After extensive delays, Russia completed work on Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor in 2010. At the same time, in a scaling back of military cooperation, in 2010 it cancelled a planned sale of S-300 defence missile systems to Tehran, citing UN sanctions. The S-300 could help Iran build a solid anti-aircraft shield to defend its nuclear facilities. Russia has used its role as a veto-wielding UN Security Council member as both a lever on Iran to abide by nuclear guidelines, and as a check against any U.S.-led effort to significantly toughen sanctions. The European Union Although the EU shares U.S. concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions, it has been more inclined to engage Iran due to its longstanding trade and diplomatic ties. EU countries pressed for diplomatic talks with Iran on its nuclear program, human rights, support for terrorists, and opposition to the Middle East peace process for nearly a decade after the U.S. first imposed sanctions. Economic and cultural ties between the two powers flourished under President Mohammad Khatamis reformist government in the late 1990s, but the discovery in 2002 of undisclosed nuclear sites at Natanz and Arak unravelled these ties. The election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 further soured relations as pressure from domestic factions in Iran forced the Iranian government to take a harder line in nuclear negotiations. Germany, a major exporter to Iran, has often favoured less stringent negotiating terms than the U.S. and other EU members. But it acquiesced to international sanctions in 2006 and 2008, further squashing burgeoning EU-Iran trade ties. China Iran's relationship with China is largely driven by China's burgeoning energy needs. In 2009, Iran accounted for 11 percent of China's oil imports. China is a major supplier of Iran's machinery, textiles, chemical products, and consumer goods; and trade ties have grown from $4 billion in 2003 to over $20 billion in 2009. China aims to build a pipeline through Iran to access Caspian Sea energy resources, which would reduce its reliance on Gulf oil imports and further its interests in promoting a stable Iranian regime. China is also a major supplier of refined gasoline to Iran. However, the influx of cheap Chinese consumer goods has set back domestic Iranian businesses, causing political discontent among Iran's once-influential merchant class. Despite China's reluctant support for the Obama administration's fourth round of UN sanctions in June 2010, China has scooped up lucrative commercial deals left behind by Western companies. India The two countries have long enjoyed close ties, given Iran's strategic significance and the importance of its oil resources for energy-hungry India. India and Iran also cooperate on securing their interests in Afghanistan; India helped construct the Zaranj-Delaram highway in Afghanistan near the Iranian border and hopes its investment in the Iranian port at Chabahar will allow it to gain trading access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan. But tensions have arisen over India's growing ties with the U.S. and over Iran's nuclear program. In February 2006, India voted alongside the U.S. at the IAEA to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for its noncompliance with international treaties on its nuclear program. The vote, which came a month after the U.S. ambassador to India explicitly linked progress on a proposed U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation with India's upcoming vote, was seen by many in India as a result of U.S. pressure, and the government was widely criticized, especially by the leftist political parties.

Pakistan Iran and Pakistan cultivated strong diplomatic relations following Pakistan's partition from India in 1947. Many Pakistanis claim Iranian ancestry, and 20 percent of Pakistan's Muslims are Shia. Both countries opposed the Soviet intervention in neighbouring Afghanistan during the Cold War, and Pakistan provided nuclear technology to Iran. But strains have been caused by Iran's growing trade ties with India, the U.S. role in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and antiShiite terrorist activities in Pakistan. The ouster of the Pakistan-supported Taliban after 9/11 strengthened PakistanIran cooperation, but Pakistan often sides with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states. The countries' shared border has also been a factor in increasing tensions. Pakistan's south-western province of Balochistan is home to Baloch tribesmen who also stretch across Iran's bordering Sistan-Balochistan province. Balochis on both sides of the border feel marginalized and discriminated against, on sectarian grounds in Iran and on ethnic grounds in Pakistan. The United States of America Since the fall of pro-U.S. Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi in 1979, the U.S. has sought to isolate and contain Iran because of its perceived threat to regional stability and U.S. regional influence. The U.S. severed diplomatic ties after Iranian supporters of revolutionary Islamic cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, held its diplomats hostage, and threatened to export the Shiite revolution throughout the region. Iran resented the U.S. tilt toward Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War, while the U.S. has bristled at Iran's opposition to the U.S.sponsored Middle East peace process and its support of militant groups Hezbollah and Hamas. The two countries cooperated briefly following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, when the U.S. stepped in to topple shared enemies in Afghanistan and Iraq. But rising U.S. concerns about Iran's nuclear program and its suspected destabilizing role in Iraq set back meaningful dialogue.

FURTHER READING
Interactive Study Guide regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran http://www.cfr.org/interactives/CG_Iran/ New York Times reports on Iran http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/nuclear_program/index.html Irans nuclear timeline on Aljazeera English http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/empire/2011/11/20111130111954972639.html Q&A about Irans nuclear program http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11709428 IAEA Reports on the nuclear program of Iran http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/iaeairan/iaea_reports.shtml