Result Update

October 25, 2011

Rating matrix
Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Buy | 137 12 months 26 %

Exide Industries (EXIIND)

WHATS CHANGED
FY12E 4987.1 724.6 505.9 6.0 FY13E 5782.9 1027.3 717.9 8.4

| 109

Key Financials
(| Crore) Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS FY10 3794.0 889.4 537.1 6.3 FY11 4575.6 900.8 688.3 8.1

PRICE TARGET....................................................................... Changed from | 171 to | 137 EPS (FY12E)............................................................................. Changed from | 8.4 to | 6.0 EPS (FY13E)........................................................................... Changed from | 10.4 to | 8.4 RATING...............................................................................................................Unchanged

Disappointing resultsstrong fundamentals

Exide Industries (EIL) posted disappointing Q2FY12 results that were below our estimates with net sales at | 1176.1 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1271.3 crore), a decline (5.4% QoQ) from ~| 1244 crore in Q1FY12. The revenue performance was marred by weak replacement offtake in the four-wheeler segment, industrial battery sales. The biggest shock came in terms of EBITDA margins, which contracted (down 1400 bps YoY and 1020 bps QoQ) to 7.7%. This was due to rolling high cost inventory of the previous quarter at ~| 134/kg in terms of finished goods and WIP to the tune of ~| 142 crore, which was consumed in this quarter. The inventory mismatch was due to the high ~90% utilisation levels in Q1FY12 in anticipation of strong market demand. The remaining rolling high cost inventory is expected to be cleared by December 2010. Post this, Q4FY12 is expected to witness the benefits of lower lead costs. The PAT came in at a mere | 51.1 crore, which was further reduced as dividend income from smelters was down due to lower profitability. Highlights of the quarter The major point of disappointment stemmed from the fact that high margin four-wheeler replacement market sales dipped 7.2% YoY at 10.5 lakh units even as overall automotive replacement sales grew ~1.5% YoY at ~19 lakh units. The four-wheeler OEM grew modestly at ~7.7% to 9.6 lakh units while two-wheeler sales were robust with ~40% jump at 25.8 lakh units. The industrial segment has witnessed de-growth of ~5% YoY at 391.4 million amp-hr driven by both inverter and telecom witnessing weakness. EIL has raised its capacities in FY12E and is expected to touch ~3.3 crore units by the end of the fiscal. The inventory setback that EIL received was more in pre-anticipation of strong OEM, replacement demand in challenging times with higher interest rates.

Valuation summary
FY10 Core PE (x) Core target PE (x) EV to EBITDA (x) Price to book (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) 14.8 18.7 10.5 5.3 31.0 41.7 FY11 11.6 14.6 10.3 4.3 27.7 32.3 FY12E 15.8 19.9 12.7 3.7 17.2 21.3 FY13E 11.1 14.0 8.5 3.1 20.8 26.7

Stock data
Mcap Debt (FY11) Cash (FY11) EV 52 week H/L Equity cap Face value MF Holding FII Holding |9265crore |0crore |14.8crore |9265crore | 180 / 108 |85crore |1 15% 17.1%

Price movement
7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Jul-11 Nifty (L.H.S) Price (R.H.S) 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 Oct-11

Valuation
The battery sector is witnessing a short-term (~one or two quarters) overcapacity issue with domestic demand remaining a challenge. At the CMP of | 108, the stock is trading at 11.1x FY13E EPS. We have valued the stock on an SOTP basis with the core business at 14x FY13E EPS of | 8.4, valuing other subsidiaries and investments at | 19/share to arrive at a target price of | 137. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
Exhibit 1: Valuation Metrics
(| Crore) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) Depreciation Interest Reported PAT EPS (|) Q2FY12 1176.1 90.2 7.7 24.6 1.6 51.1 0.6 Q2FY12E 1271.3 225.8 17.8 24.0 0.0 161.4 1.9 Q2FY11 1126.7 245.0 21.7 20.1 1.7 212.9 2.5 Q1FY12 1243.7 222.8 17.9 23.7 1.1 163.8 1.9 YoYchg(%) 4.4 -63.2 (1400) bps 22.1 -4.7 -76.0 -76.0 QoQchg(%) -5.4 -59.5 (1020) bps 3.8 42.5 -68.8 -68.8

Analysts name
Karan Mittal karan.mittal@icicisecurities.com Nishant Vass nishant.vass@icicisecurities.com Aman Daga aman.daga@icicisecurities.com

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Result analysis

Profits marred heavily by production over-exuberance

EILs performance for Q2FY12 was weaker than earlier anticipated as sales slowed down in the replacement market. Recovery of previous market share losses remained sticky and finally the inventory pile-up. This led to a triple whammy as profits came down drastically. Topline growth remained tepid with replacement sales in the high yielding four-wheeler segment also declining 7% YoY even as OEM sales in both the twowheelers and four-wheelers segment witnessing growth of ~7.7%, 40% respectively. Sales in the industrial segment have been slowing down with weak telecom and inverter offtake, declining ~5% YoY. The problem came in from the fact that management was pro-active in running capacities at high 90% utilisation levels in anticipation of high demand in both the OEM, replacement segment. However the sudden cut in OEM growth in the PV segment has hit the company hard and led to the high cost inventory pileup. The average inventory cost for Q2FY12 was higher by ~24% at |133/kg even as lead prices corrected to ~| 110115/kg levels. Q3FY12E would also witness higher cost inventory being consumed by December 2010 post which the normality on margins and profits should be resumed. EIL has been in a funny situation as in Q3FY11 it was challenged by low capacity and burgeoning OEM demand, as EIL raised capacities, utilisations through Q4FY11, H1FY12 in anticipation of similar demand the trend of demand waned out. This has led to the high overhead costs on account of lower utilisations and inventory costs. We believe this situation is one which has some portion of sales deferment involved due to macro uncertainty as well as slower recovery of market share losses (~8%) from in H2FY11. Going ahead, we expect the situation to again reverse and surprise the street on the upside in FY13E. The industrial segment again registered lower offtake with ~5% YoY decline at ~392 million Am-hr led by telecom, inverter segment declines of ~56%, 39% respectively. The management commented on the fact that though inverter segment has witnessed better growth in October 2011 the reasons and trend going ahead for the same remained unclear. In the submarine segment, the order flow from the Indian Navy has been and is expected to flow through by H2FY12. In terms of revenue contribution, it would be adding ~| 50 crore for FY12.
Exhibit 2: Topline and bottomline trends
1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Topline Q1FY12 Bottomline Q2FY12 124.4 51.1 0 1,126.7 212.9 1,248.1 1,244.4 1,176.1 1,049.1 163.7 163.8 200 150 100 50 250

Source: Company press release, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Inventory cost has gone up ~24% YoY basis to |133/Kg due to higher finished goods inventory from Q1FY12 onwards

Exhibit 3: Average lead LME price and EBITDA margins trend

3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Avg. Lead cost EBIDTA margins Q2FY12 15.2 21.7 2387 2039 19.1 2910 2574 2531 17.9 20 15 10 7.7 5 0 25

Source: Company press release, Bloomberg, , ICICIdirect.com Research

The EBITDA/battery is expected to decline in FY12E considering the inventory fallouts faced by EIL however FY13E would be an improvement from FY12E

Exhibit 4: Per battery costs and revenue trends

500 2,800 2,300 (|) 1,776 1,800 285 1,300 1,177 800 FY09 FY10 Revenue /battery FY11 RM Cost /battery FY12E FY13E EBITDA /battery 986 406 1,732 1,913 282 1,179 1,139 200 352 1,083 378 1,942 1,980 (|) 300
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400

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Outlook and valuation

Outlook
Exide Industries has not performed up-to expectations in the last couple of quarters with capacity constraints and market share loss issues plaguing it. This time around EIL has rightly paid the price of over anticipating demand and leading to inventory pile-up and the related declines in Q3 margins. However, even with all these negatives the major crux remains that EIL with its ~40,000 odd touch points and strong branding franchise in the auto-ancillary segment (having low branding value in general) remains one of the strongest brands in the industry. We believe the recent stock price underperformance has rightly justified the immediate concerns. However, keeping in mind the long term growth story in both OEM, replacement market we still believe it has strong possibility to perform in line with its historical margins. The management has turned cautious and given out muted guidance on the margins for Q3FY12E with inventory issues. However, replacement market share recovery and volume up-tick is expected by H2FY12E. We have modelled in lag impact of previously expected replacement sales by ~1 quarter and, thus, leading to declining FY12E performance. We have revised our FY12, FY13 estimates downwards factoring in all the negatives.

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Exhibit 5: Revised financials

Previous (| crore) Net sales EBITDA EBITDA margin(%) Net profit FY12E 5,323.4 988.5 18.6 712.4 FY13E 6,379.6 1,227.4 19.2 884.8 10.4 Revised FY12E 4,987.1 724.6 14.5 505.9 6.0 FY13E 5,782.9 1,027.3 17.8 717.9 8.4 %chg. FY12E (6.3) (26.7) (410) bps (29.0) (29.0) FY13E (9.4) (16.3) (80) bps (18.9) (18.9)

EPS(Rs) 8.4 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Valuation
Battery sector is witnessing a short term (~1-2 quarters) overcapacity issue with domestic demand remaining due to challenging domestic macro. However, on a longer term horizon with interest rates expected to peak out the demand for PV segment could see a bounce back in H2FY12E, FY13E higher than market expectations. Thus, we remain positive on EIL considering the trough valuations and strong business franchise which remains intact. At the CMP of | 108, the stock is trading at 15.8x FY12E core EPS of | 6.0 and 11.1x FY13E of | 8.4. We have used the SOTP methodology to value the stock. We value the standalone business at 14x FY13E EPS of | 8.4 to arrive at a per share value of | 118 for the core business. The other smelting subsidiaries are valued in discount to Hindustan Zinc which is the market leader in the business. In light of improving performance of Insurance business we have valued the 50% stake in ING Vysya at | 13/share using an NBAP multiple of 14x, the same value for ING Vysya is also making a buzz on the street. Our target price of | 137 implies an upside potential of 26%. We continue to maintain our BUY rating on the stock, suggest investors to make staggered entry into the stock at all lower levels.
Exhibit 6: Valuation
SOTP Valuation Standalone Business FY13E EPS Multiple Value per share (|) Insurance stake (50%) Value of ING Vysya Insurance (| crore) Value towards Exide Industries Value per share (|) Value of subsidiaries (|crore) Value of smelting subsidiaries (|) Value of other subsidiaries (|) Total Value per Share (|) 428 58.6 5 1 137 Market cap 1 P/BV 2289.4 1,144.7 13 Market Cap 8.4 14.0 118 Estimated value Value per share Remark

Source: Company annual report, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 7: Valuation table

Sales FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E (| cr) 3794.0 4575.6 4987.1 5782.9 Growth (%) 20.6 9.0 16.0 EPS (|) 6.3 8.1 6.0 8.4 Growth (%) 28.2 -26.5 41.9 PE (x) 14.8 11.6 15.8 11.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.5 10.3 12.7 8.5 RoNW (%) 31.0 27.7 17.2 20.8 RoCE (%) 41.7 32.3 21.3 26.7

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICIdirect.com Research coverage universe (Automotive ancillaries)

Apollo Tyres Idirect Code Mcap (|cr) Automotive Axle Idirect Code Mcap (|cr) Balkrishna Industries Idirect Code Mcap (|cr) Bharat Forge Idirect Code Mcap (|cr) JK Tyres Idirect Code Mcap (|cr) Subros Idirect Code Mcap (|cr) Motherson Sumi Idirect Code Mcap (|cr) Exide Industries Idirect Code Mcap (|cr) APOTYR 2825 CMP(|) Target(|) % Upside 56 62 10.4 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E SY10 SY11E SY12E SY13E FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sales (| cr) 5036.6 5490.5 7786.1 8411.4 669.7 999.2 1152.2 1319.2 1395.0 2011.9 2610.8 3093.7 3261.6 4894.4 5845.3 7175.5 3677.7 4810.9 5686.1 6959.2 906.5 1091.0 1051.7 1,222.9 6702.2 8175.6 9550.8 11053.6 3794.0 4575.6 4987.1 5782.9 EPS (|) 8.2 3.9 4.1 5.7 29.2 41.9 50.2 60.9 21.6 19.2 23.7 27.9 -2.9 3.9 15.4 22.0 39.8 14.9 13.2 25.9 4.6 4.7 4.5 7.0 6.5 10.1 10.3 13.8 6.3 8.1 6.0 8.4 PE(x) 5.4 11.4 11.0 7.9 12.9 8.9 7.5 6.1 1.5 8.4 6.8 5.8 NA 68.4 17.6 12.3 2.5 6.6 7.4 3.8 7.4 7.2 7.5 4.9 32.1 23.1 22.6 16.9 17.3 13.5 18.3 12.9 EV/E (x) 5.6 9.3 7.8 6.3 8.0 5.9 5.0 4.0 1.0 1.4 3.0 3.1 17.8 10.9 9.2 6.4 1.7 4.1 4.8 2.1 3.8 4.9 4.3 3.8 16.1 11.2 9.7 7.7 10.5 10.3 12.7 8.5 RoNW (%) 27.0 11.0 10.3 13.0 23.3 27.5 26.6 26.2 31.6 22.3 21.9 20.7 NA 4.2 13.3 15.6 23.6 8.6 7.2 12.6 14.2 12.9 11.2 15.4 24.9 28.5 23.3 27.6 31.0 27.7 17.2 20.8 RoCE (%) 32.0 15.2 12.2 12.7 27.0 32.1 33.0 34.4 27.8 19.9 15.5 16.8 NA 8.7 15.8 22.2 21.5 9.1 8.9 11.7 18.7 12.4 12.2 14.2 18.3 26.5 24.1 28.8 41.7 32.3 21.3 26.7

AUTAXL 567

CMP(|) Target(|) % Upside

375 487 30.1

BALIND 1654

CMP(|) Target(|) % Upside

171 195 14.0

BHAFOR 6469

CMP(|) Target(|) % Upside

278 327 17.5

JKIND 283

CMP(|) Target(|) % Upside

69 118 71.2

SUBROS 160

CMP(|) Target(|) % Upside

27 31 17.7

MOTSUM 5295

CMP(|) Target(|) % Upside

181 209 15.5

EXIIND 9265

CMP(|) Target(|) % Upside

109 137 26.1

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research SY~ September Year end

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Exhibit 8: Recommendation history

200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Nov-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Mar-11
Price

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Sep-11

Oct-1

Target Price

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 9: Recommendation history

16-Dec-10 10-Jan-11 19-Jan-11 8-Apr-11 29-Apr-11 6-Jun-11 22-Jul-11 5-Oct-11 Date Event Initiating coverage Q3FY11 Preview Q3FY11 Result Update Q4FY11 Preview Q4FY11 Result Update Q1FY12 Preview Q1FY12 Result Update Q2FY12 Preview CMP 163 159 138 147 150 164 154 132 Target Price 184 184 169 169 169 169 171 171 Rating BUY BUY BUY ADD BUY BUY BUY BUY

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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ICICIdirect.com Universe price movement vis--vis BSE Auto index Exhibit 10: OEM comparison with BSE Auto
The chart compares the movement of OEM stocks in the ICICIdirect.com Universe with the BSE Auto index, thereby reflecting the degree of mimicking of the index Since January 2011, Bajaj Auto and M&M have outperformed while Maruti Suzuki and Escorts have underperformed in comparison to the index by being divergent on the upside and downside, respectively
200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 BSE Auto M&M May-11 Bajaj Escorts Jun-11 Jul-11 Maruti Aug-11

BSE Auto

Escorts Sep-11 Oct-11 Tata Motors

Hero Honda

Source:ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 11: Ancillaries comparison with BSE Auto

The chart compares the movement of auto ancillary stocks in the ICICIdirect.com universe with the BSE Auto index The volatile nature of smaller ancillary companies is reflected. These have met with numerous fluctuations with the exception of larger market capitalisation companies like Exide Industries, which mimic the index greatly. JK Tyre and Subros have grossly underperformed due to the intense rubber price overhang and production disruption at Maruti respectively.
175 155 135 115 95 75 55 35 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 BSE Auto Balkrishna Subros May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Auto Axl JK Tyres Motherson Sumi Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Bharat Forge Apollo Tyres Exide Inds Subros JK Tyres Bharat Forge BSE Auto Auto Axl

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps / midcaps, respectively; Buy: Between 10% and 15%/20% for large caps / midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Karan Mittal MBA(FINANCE) Aman Daga MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees (ICICI Securities and affiliates) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return of investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities and its affiliates might have managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. ICICI Securities and affiliates might have received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed that Karan Mittal MBA(FINANCE) Aman Daga MBA research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include earnings from Investment Banking and other business. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. It is confirmed that Karan Mittal MBA(FINANCE) Aman Daga MBA research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. ICICI Securities and affiliates may act upon or make use of information contained in the report prior to the publication thereof. 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