FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA (1960 - 2011)

BY
Ibi, E. E. and Opue, J. A.
University of Calabar, Cross River State, Nigeria. E-mail for correspondence:ngaji74@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT
This study investigated the impact of fiscal policy measures on economic development in Nigeria. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-perron unit root test were first conducted. The cointegration test was then performed using Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure. The granger causality test, the impulse response test, and then the variance decomposition test were performed. The collective results reveal that fiscal policy measures have not been effective in the development of the Nigerian economy when compared to monetary policy measures. Based on this, it was recommended, amongst others, that fiscal discipline, through prudent accountability, efficiency in revenue generation and above all, spending according to domestic demands, should be ensured in order to avoid economic decline in Nigeria. Key Word: Fiscal policy, Economic Development.

. INTRODUCTION Fiscal policy is generally believed to be associated with growth or more precisely, it is held that appropriate fiscal policy measures in particular circumstances can be used to stimulate economic development or growth (Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1992). More recent literature, however, places increasing weight to the role of expansionary fiscal policy and its potential role in stimulating economic growth (Tabellini and Daveri, 1997). A number of studies have empirically examined the productivity of government spending for various countries and crosssections of countries. They include panel studies such as Landau (1983), Kormendi and Meguire (1985), Grier and Tullock (1989), Kneller et al (1998); cross-sectional studies such as Landau (1986), Ram (1986), Barro (1991), Chan and Gustafson (1991), Easterly and Rebello (1993), Lin (1994), Devarajan et al (1996) and Folster and Henrekson (2001); and time series such as Dunne and Nikolaidou (1999). More recently, authors have begun to exploit the utility of new techniques. Cooray (2009) uses an extended neoclassical production function to incorporate two dimensions of the government - the size and the quality dimensions and estimates the model on a cross section of 71 economies. The results show that both the size and quality of government are important for economic growth. However, according to Onoh (2007), the bane of the Nigerian economy is the apparent lack of integration of macroeconomic plans and the absence of harmonization and coordination of fiscal policies among the three tiers of government. Others are misplaced priorities, misapplication and misappropriation of scarce fiscal resources, high domestic and external debt profiles, and corruption in high places, lack of accountability and transparency and the lack of credible international image. These inadequacies which have resulted in low levels of macroeconomic equilibrium have further been jeopardized by the frequent altering of the political structure of Nigeria into states. After many years of literally beating about the bush with nothing to show for, in terms of poverty eradication and improved welfare for the majority of the populace, the Nigerian authorities had to return to the drawing board. The poor macroeconomic performance was diagnosed and traced to the problems of misplaced priorities, misapplication and 1

misappropriation of scarce fiscal resources, high domestic and external debt profiles, etc. The conclusion was that if macroeconomic stability was to be achieved, then the activities of the three tiers of government have to be well harmonized and coordinated. In addition, fiscal efficiency, accountability and transparency have to be incorporated into the laws governing the macroeconomic management of Nigeria. The final goal of macroeconomic policy becomes possible only if the economy is well managed (Mark, 2003). To confirm the various postulations outlined, this study aims at investigating the impact of fiscal policy measures on the development of the Nigerian economy by focusing on the relative effectiveness of government expenditure and the resultant fiscal deficits on the economy. The specific objectives are as follows: 1. To analyze the two-way linkage of fiscal policy and economic development in Nigeria. 2. To analyze the two-way linkage of fiscal policy and monetary policy in Nigeria. 3. To analyze the two-way linkage of monetary policy and economic development in Nigeria. 4. To examine and compare the magnitudes of monetary and fiscal policies on economic development in Nigeria. 5. To analyze the two way linkage of public debt and economic development in Nigeria. Research Hypotheses In the light of the above objectives, the following hypotheses have been proposed in alternative forms (H1): Hypothesis 1 (H1): A mutually reinforcing two-way linkage between Fiscal Policy and Economic Development exists in Nigeria. Hypothesis 2 (H1): A mutually reinforcing two-way linkage between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy exists in Nigeria. Hypothesis 3 (H1): A mutually reinforcing two-way linkage between Monetary Policy and Economic Development exists in Nigeria. Hypothesis 4 (H1): Fiscal Policy significantly affects Nigerias Economic Development than Monetary Policy. Hypothesis 5 (H1): A mutually reinforcing two-way linkage between Public Debt and Economic Development exists in Nigeria. Model specification: The Vector Autoregressive Model In order to test the two-way linkage between Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth, in the current study, multivariate Granger causality tests are conducted to examine possible causal relationships among some variables comprised of gross domestic product (GDP), public revenue (PR), public expenditure (PEX), broad money supply (MS) and public debt (PD), all expressed in natural logs. These tests are based on the following vector autoregressive (VAR) model as shown in equation 1.1; all variables are systematically and endogenously considered at first. The specified model is as follows: (1.1)

+ [

] [ ] [ ] [ ] Where, GDP=Gross Domestic Product (proxy for Economic Development), PR=Public Revenue, PEX=Public Expenditure, PD=Public Debt, MS=Broad Money Supply, A0=vector of constant terms, are all matrices of parameters (i=1, 2, , s), and t ~ IN (0, 1). 2

The fiscal policy measures consist of government expenditure (PEX), tax revenue (PR) and budget surplus (PR-PEX) while the monetary policy measure is proxied by broad money supply (MS), etc. (see Ajayi, 1974). In order to analyze the causal linkages it is necessary to check whether the variables are stationary. According to Granger (1969), standard tests for causality are valid only if there exists cointegration. Therefore, a necessary precondition to causality testing is to check the cointegrating properties of the variables under consideration. PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL RESULT Unit root test We test for the presence of unit roots and identify the order of integration for each variable using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) statistic in which the null hypothesis is non stationary. The Newey and West method is applied to choose optimal lag lengths automatically based on Schwarz Criterion (SC), which was found to be nine (9) for all variables. ADF tests conducted on the logged variables of GDP, MS, PEX, PR, and PD, differentiated by their order of integration are reported in Table 1.2. The Phillip-Perron unit root test was also conducted to substantiate the ADF unit root test. This is reflected in table 1.3. As shown in Table 1.2 for the variables in question, it is evident that we generally cannot reject the presence of a unit root at conventional levels of statistical significance except in the case of GDP which is stationary at level. To see whether the other variables are integrated of order one, at 5 percent level, we performed the ADF test on the first differences. The results show that the first differences of the series were all stationary, thus, rejecting the null hypothesis of unit root. The Phillips-Perron result of table 1.3 also reveals that GDP is also integrated of order one. Therefore, based on these analyses, we conclude that the series involved in the estimation procedure are regarded as I(1) and so, suitable to make co-integration test. Cointegration test Since it has been determined that the variables under examination, i.e. from equation (3.1), GDP, MS, PD, PEX and PR, are integrated of order one (namely, I(1)), then the cointegration test is performed. The testing hypothesis is the null of non-cointegration using the Johansen maximum likelihood procedure. So the proper way to test for the relationships between the variables is certainly to test for a cointegrating equation. In testing cointegration relationships, we use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method of Johansen and Juselius. In selecting optimal lag length for the cointegration test, we adopt the Schwartz Information Criterion (SIC) and Schwartz Criterion. The cointegration test results performed for the five equations are reported in Table 1.4 below. Table 1.4 shows the cointegration test results. Since calculated max (= 139.7459) and Trace (= 428.2405) are above the critical values (33.8769) and (69.8189) respectively at 5 percent level, we can clearly reject the null hypothesis stating there is no cointegration. In the second null hypothesis stating one versus two cointegrating vectors, we also reject the null hypothesis since the calculated max (= 111.8083) and Trace (=288.4946) are above the critical values (27.5843) and (47.8561) respectively. Furthermore, in the two cointegrating vectors versus three cointegrating vectors, we also reject the null hypothesis since the calculated max (= 91.8675) and Trace (=176.6863) are above the critical values (21.1316) and (29.7971) respectively. However, when it comes to three versus four cointegrating vectors we also reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration since max (=59.9677) and Trace (84.8188) are greater than the 3

critical values (14.2646) and (15.4947) respectively. Finally, in the case of four versus five cointegrating vectors, we also reject the null hypothesis since max (=24.8511) and Trace (= 24.8511) are both greater than the critical values of 3.8415. Hence, we conclude that we have five cointegrating vectors at 5 percent level of significance. Eviews-5.0 also reports the normalized cointegrating vectors. According to the normalized cointegrating vectors, the coefficients obtained gives a stable long-run relationship between the variables. However, the result of Table 1.4 which suggests the presence of cointegration provides strong evidence in the causality among these variables. Hence, there is need for the Granger causality test for the VAR model of 1.1. Granger causality test If there exists a cointegrating vector between the variables in question, that is GDP, PEX, PR, PD and MS, there is causality among these variables at least in one direction (Granger, 1988). Thus, Granger causality tests can be used to examine the nature of the relationship. The results of the granger causality tests reported in Table (1.5) indicate that:(i) Monetary policy measures Granger cause economic development, and Economic development Granger cause monetary policy measures, which means that there is evidence of two-way Granger causality from GDP to MS and vice versa with feedback. This leads us to conclude that there is long-run relationship between the two variables. (ii) Public debt Granger cause Economic development and Economic development Granger cause Public debt, which means that there is evidence of two way Granger causality from GDP to PD and vice versa with feedback. This leads us to conclude that there is long-run relationship between the two variables. (iii) Fiscal policy measures (PEX) Granger cause Economic development and Economic development Granger cause Fiscal policy measures, which means that there is evidence of twoway Granger causality from GDP to PEX and vice versa with feed-back. This leads us to conclude that there is long-run relationship between the two variables. (iv) Public revenue Granger cause Economic development, and Economic development Granger cause Public revenue, which means that there is evidence of two-way Granger causality from GDP to PR and vice versa with feedback. This leads us to conclude that there is long-run relationship between the two variables. (v) Fiscal policy measures (PEX) Granger cause Monetary policy measures (MS), and Monetary policy measures does not Granger cause Fiscal policy measures, which means that there is evidence of one-way Granger causality from PEX to MS. This leads us to conclude that PEX has significant effect on MS, but MS does not have a significant effect on PEX. (vi) Public revenue Granger cause Monetary policy measures, and Monetary policy measures also Granger cause Public revenue, which means that there is evidence of a by-directional Granger causality from PR to MS, with feedback. This leads us to conclude that there exists long-run relationship between the two variables. Impulse response analysis To further illustrate the manner of response of the sample to the shocks, we conduct the impulse response function (IR) analysis for the VAR model of equation (1.1). We examined the effect of the responses of GDP to GDP, MS, PR, PE, and PD; the response of MS, to MS, GDP, PR and PE; the response of PE to PE, MS, GDP; and PR to PR, MS and GDP, over a 6 year period after the beginning of the shock. The one standard deviation confidence band is obtained by Monte Carlo integration method. As shown in Figure 1.1, the first and second line shows the response of Economic development (GDP) to itself and other variables. The impulse response of GDP to the shocks of 4

MS was positive and insignificant except in the 2nd, 3rd and 6th year where it was insignificant. The impulse response of GDP to the shocks of and PD was positive and significant except in the 3rd, 5th and 6th year where it was insignificant. The response of GDP to the shocks of PEX was negative and insignificant down to the fifth year period and then remains positive; while the response of GDP to the shocks of Public Revenue (PR) was totally negative all through the 6th year but significant except in the 5th and 6th year. The third line of Figure 1.1 shows the response of Monetary policy measures (MS) to itself and other variables. GDP has a positive but insignificant effect, Fiscal policy measures (PEX) has a positive and insignificant effect which reaches its peak in the fifth (5th) year and then drops down in the 6th year; PR has an insignificant effect fluctuating between positive and negative in the 2nd and 3rd year and then became positive all through to the 6th year. The fourth line of Figure 1.1 shows the responses of Fiscal policy measures (PEX) to the shocks of other variables. GDP has an insignificant effect which fluctuated between positive and negative directions in the first and second year and then became positive all through to the 6th year; MS was insignificant, and also fluctuates in the positive and negative directions. PR was significant with positive and negative fluctuations, and then became negative from the 4th to 6th year. The last line of Figure 1.1 shows the responses of PR to the shocks of itself and other variables. GDP has a negative and insignificant effect; MS has an insignificant effect which fluctuates between the negative and positive direction; while PEX also has an insignificant effect except in the 1st year and fluctuates in the positive and negative directions. Variance decomposition While causality test indicates if a variable or group of variables is found to be helpful in predicting other variables or group of variables, without implying true causality but rather the forecasting powers, Impulse response functions provides the direction and level of significance of the relationship existing between the variables in question. However, variance decomposition substantiates the causal affects and the impulse response effects by comparing the sizes or magnitudes of the effects on the existing relationships among the variables. Thus, showing how the sizes of the effects have changed over time. The variance decomposition result is shown in Table 1.6. It draws from the analysis of VAR model of equation (1.1). In Table 1.6 the reported numbers indicate the percentage of forecast error in each variable that can be attributed to innovations in other variables in six (6) different time horizon or period. The part A of Table 1.6 indicates that the changes in GDP is due to its own changes starting from 100% in the first year decreasing to 41.5% in the 3rd year and then increasing to 46% in the 6th year. Besides, changes in GDP are also explained by around 26.5%, 13.9%, 1.7% and 11.8% by MS, PD, PEX and PR respectively in the 6th period. This indicates that the changes in GDP are mainly explained by its own variation, and MS, PD, PEX and PR but with MS having the highest magnitude among other variables. When looking at the part B of Table 1.6, we observed that in the 1st period, the changes in MS are explained by 93% of its own shocks and goes down to 60% in the 6th period. In the 6th period, however, the MS variation is accounted of 6% by GDP, 26% by PEX, and only 1.6% by PR. Hence, the changes in MS are mainly explained by its own variation, and GDP, PEX and PR, respectively but with PEX having the highest magnitude. Moreover, the part C of Table 1.6 indicates that the innovation of PEX is explained by 14% in the first period and increases to 17% in the 2nd, and the goes down to 6% in the 6th period by its own variation. The variation in PEX in the 6th period is explained by GDP (30%), MS 5

(36%), and PR (19%). Thus, the innovation of PEX is mainly explained by its own variation, GDP, MS, and PR, but with MS having the highest magnitude. The part D of Table 1.6 shows that PR variability is attributed to shocks by itself (52%) in the first period, while 3.5% is due to changes in GDP, 10.5% is due to changes in MS, and 33.3% is due to changes in PEX. However, as time goes by, the explanatory proportion of its own innovation decreases to 33.9% in the 6th period, while GDP increased to 22.6%, MS increased to 16.8%, and PEX decreased to 15.1%. Therefore, GDP has the highest magnitude. The conclusion of variance decomposition analysis is that: (i) Economic development (GDP) is more sensitive to changes in Monetary policy measures (MS), than by changes in Public debt (PD) and Public revenue (PR), but not by changes in Fiscal policy measures (PEX). (ii) MS is sensitive to changes in PEX and not to changes in GDP and PR (iii) PEX is more sensitive to changes in MS than by changes in GDP and PR. (iv) PR is more sensitive to changes in GDP than by changes in MS and PEX. Table 1.2: Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test Variables ADF Statistic 5% Critical value Prob* Remarks LGDP - 4.180332 -2.941145 0.0022 Stationary I(0) LMS -2.104597 -2.938987 0.9999 Non stationary D(LMS) -3.401857 -2.943427 0.0034 Stationary I(1) LPE 10.35897 -2.928142 1.0000 Non stationary D(LPE) -2.342739 -2.036942 0.0099 Stationary I(1) LPR 2.987072 -2.938987 1.0000 Non stationary D(LPR) -4.265049 -2.941145 0.0000 Stationary I(1) LPD 1.824764 -2.941145 0.9996 Non stationary D(LPD) -7.929351 -2943427 0.0000 Stationary I(1) L= log; D= First difference; * Mackinnon (1996) one sided P- Value I(o) = Integrated of order zero; I(1)= Integrated of Order one. Table 1.3: Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test. Variables ADF Statistic 5% Critical value Prob* LGDP - 0.121112 -2.925169 0.9409 D(GDP) -13.12653 -2.926622 0.0000 LMS 15.32465 -2.925169 1.0000 D(LMS) -8.267254 -2.926622 0.0000 LPE 14.95840 -2.926622 1.0000 D(LPE) -7.314937 -2.928142 0.0000 LPR -3.206449 -2.928142 0.0261 LPD D(LPD) -0.737876 -4.631184 -2.925169 -2.926622 0.8269 0.0005 Remarks Non stationary Stationary -I(1) Non stationary Stationary -I(1) Non stationary Stationary -I(1) StationaryI(0) Non stationary Stationary -1(1)

L= log; D= First difference; * MacKinnon (1996) one sided P- Value I (o) = Integrated of order zero; I(1)= Integrated of Order one.

Table 1.4: Result of the cointegration test Eigenvalue Ho H1 Trace test max test

Critical values Critical value 5% (Trace) 5% (max) 0.9552 r=0 r1 428.2405 139.7459 69.8189 33.8769 0.9166 r1 r2 288.4946 111.8083 47.8561 27.5843 0.8702 r2 r3 176.6863 91.8675 29.7971 21.1316 0.7362 r3 r4 84.8188 59.9677 15.4947 14.2646 0.4243 r4 r5 24.8511 24.8511 3.8415 3.8415 * denotes significance at 5% level, r indicates the number of cointegrating vectors. Tables 1.5: F-Statistic 5.19655 12.1144 37.5198 6.02486 5.05610 9.51605 4.57999 13.1470 4.65074 0.61674 23.4658 79.1791 Granger causality test for equation 3.1 Prob. Conclusion 0.00974 MS 7.3 E-05 GDP 5.5 E-10 PD 0.00508 GDP 0.01102 PE 0.00042 GDP 0.01618 PR 4.1 E-05 GDP 0.01528 PE 0.54476 MS 1.8 E-07 PR 1.2 E-14 MS

GDP MS GDP PD GDP PE GDP PR MS PE MS PR

= Granger Cause = not Granger Cause Table 1.6 Variance decomposition of equation (1.1) (A) Variance decomposition of GDP Period S.E GDP MS 1 251314.7 100.0000 0.0000 2 488768.4 66.8472 7.1586 3 842291.0 41.5498 20. 5913 4 1351177.0 43.9084 20. 9005 5 2070621.0 43.2185 30.9163 6 2777725.0 46.0445 26.5478

PD 0.0000 11.2887 7.8517 14.8579 10.9228 13.9654

PEX 0.0000 0.1342 0.9419 1.8270 1.9288 1.6732

PR 0.0000 14.5713 29.0654 18.5062 13.0136 11.7691

(B) Variance decomposition of MS Period S.E GDP 1 11807.67 7.1947 2 35279.55 4.9360 3 67366.81 1.7092 4 80676.53 2.6417 5 108077.30 3.2677 6 110953.90 6.3229

MS 92.8053 78.6793 83.5901 76.0794 63.2962 60.0862 7

PEX 0.0000 0.1168 9.6480 13.5298 26.8295 26.8845

PR 0.0000 0.0352 0.5633 2.6718 1.7179 1.6344

(C) Variance decomposition of PEX Period S.E GDP 1 62602.88 11.3918 2 67933.05 10.8876 3 77772.49 25.8300 4 90451.43 25.1707 5 130290.80 32.9394 6 206941.30 29.7791 (D) Variance decomposition of PR Period S.E GDP 1 86983.94 3.5198 2 113622.30 9.5422 3 166219.60 26.5630 4 202910.40 29.2603 5 240311.80 21.2809 6 271096.40 22.5967

MS 69.2326 58.8507 45.3032 35.8916 17.3033 35.6802

PEX 14.1654 17.9339 14.0296 12.6472 15.2742 6.2336

PR 0.0000 1.1863 2.3457 12.4484 10.9421 18.7771

MS 10.4783 8.9389 17.0058 21.6652 15.5688 16.7921

PEX 33.2783 37.8859 23.6443 20.0470 18.1888 15.1035

PR 52.2676 42.9997 23.1835 19.6844 30.1741 33.8851

Figure 1.1: Shows Impulse response analysis

Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations 2 S.E.
Response of GDP to GDP
4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 -1000000 -2000000 1 2 3 4 5 6 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 -1000000 -2000000 1 2 3 4 5 6

Response of GDP to MS

Response of GDP to PUBDEBT

4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 -1000000 -2000000 1 2 3 4 5 6 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 -1000000 -2000000 1

Response of GDP to PUBEXP

4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 -1000000 -2000000 2 3 4 5 6 1

Response of GDP to PUBREV

Response of MS to MS
150000 100000 50000 0 -50000 -100000 -150000 1 2 3 4 5 6 150000 100000 50000 0 -50000 -100000 -150000 1

Response of MS to GDP
150000 100000 50000 0 -50000 -100000 -150000 2 3 4 5 6 1

Response of MS to PUBEXP
150000 100000 50000 0 -50000 -100000 -150000 2 3 4 5 6 1

Response of MS to PUBREV

Response of PUBEXP to PUBEXP

400000

Response of PUBEXP to GDP

400000 300000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 -100000 -200000 1 2 3 4 5 6 1

Response of PUBEXP to MS
400000 300000 200000 100000 0 -100000 -200000 2 3 4 5 6 1

Response of PUBEXP to PUBREV

300000 200000 200000 100000 100000 0 0 -100000 -100000 -200000 -200000 1 2 3 4 5 6 2 3 4 5 6

Response of PUBREV to PUBREV

400000 300000 200000 100000 0 -100000 -200000 -300000 -400000 1 2 3 4 5 6 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 -100000 -200000 -300000 -400000 1

Response of PUBREV to GDP

400000 300000 200000 100000 0 -100000 -200000 -300000 2 3 4 5 6 -400000 1

Response of PUBREV to MS
400000 300000 200000 100000 0 -100000 -200000 -300000 -400000 2 3 4 5 6 1

Response of PUBREV to PUBEXP

CONCLUSION In the light of the above findings, we conclude that the impact of fiscal policy measures on the development of the Nigerian economy (1960 - 2011) has not been as effective as the impact of monetary policy measures. Though a mutually reinforcing two way linkage between fiscal policy measures and economic development exists in Nigeria, GDP responded negatively though insignificant, to the shocks of public expenditure. Hence, an indication that funds generated over the years has not been properly tailored in the right direction in order to boost productivity. This could be adduced to the fact that there exist some element of corruption and fiscal indiscipline in the public sector. Perhaps, the bulk of the money generated is plunged into foreign accounts, thus grossly reducing the level of investment and shutting down productivity. Fiscal policy measures affects monetary policy measures, but monetary policy measures does not affects fiscal policy measures. This is a clear indication of the lack of synergy in the respective measures. Although the various responses to the shocks among these variables were positive, they were insignificant. This is an indication of the amount of efforts required to complement the roles of CBN with the public sector. Economic development and monetary policy measures has bidirectional relationships. The response of GDP to the shocks of MS is positive and significant, though not in all periods. Hence, an indication of the level of effectiveness of monetary policy measures to economic development. However, GDP, though positive, did not impact significantly on MS. This is a clear indication that the level of productivity is not mature enough to influence policy actions. No invisible hand of the forces of demand and supply in this respect. The CBN is therefore encouraged to continue to implement its policies in alliance with the public in order to boost productivity. The response of economic development to the shocks from public debt is positive and significant. It is also sensitive to the changes in public debt. Therefore, the revenue generated from loans does not affect the development of the Nigerian economy in the negative sense. Though a bi-directional relationship between GDP and public revenue exists in Nigeria, public revenue impacts negatively on GDP. The reason for this could be attributed to the fact that part of the revenue generated could be traceable to over taxing of the industrial sector, thus, lowering output. The sensitivity of GDP to the changes in public revenue, though negative, is an eye opener for the government to ensure prudence in revenue generation for the development of the Nigerian economy. However, on the basis of these issues we proffer that among other recommendations below, fiscal discipline, through prudence in accountability, efficiency in revenue generation and above all, spending according to domestic demands, should be ensured in order to avoid economic decline. POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS Based on the findings, the following recommendations are put forward: (1.) Coordination of fiscal and monetary policy measures imply among others, fiat monetary restraint which should be matched with lower deficit spending, thus ensuring fiscal discipline. Where deficit must be, this should be strictly applied to productive ventures to ensure economic growth and development. (2.) Where deficit must be, it should be tilted to a balanced budget by evolving an efficient taxation policy, adequate to beat tax evasion, avoidance and inequity in order to boost productivity. (3.) The level of tax revenue generated must correspond with the level of industrial development, and hence economic development of Nigeria; thus the optimality condition. 10

(4.)

(5.) (6.)

(7.) (8.)

(9.)

The bulk of revenue generated through tax, loans, and from other sources should be plunged into domestic investment, and not be allowed to be plunged into foreign account by greedy Chief Executives in government. Coordination of fiscal actions must be informed by forecasts and evaluation of results from sound econometric models. There should be an increased synergy and policy stimulus between fiscal and monetary policy measures in order to boost economic development in Nigeria; thus ensuring a mixture of fiscal and monetary policies. Government expenditures should be based on public demand for goods and services which should be provided at full employment level. Government should at all times attempt to make and implement policies that will ensure accountability, equity, fairness, transparency in governance as well as avoiding time lag that sometimes distorts government programmes. Government should design measures that will make monetary and fiscal policies more attractive to enhance economic growth and development in the country.

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Granger, C. W. J. (1988). Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality. Journal of Econometrics. 39, 199-211. Grier, K., Tullock G. (1989). An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 195180. Journal of Monetary Economics 24, 259-76. Kneller, R., Bleaney M., Gemmel N. (1998). Growth, public policy and the government budget constraint: evidence from OECD countries. Discussion Papers in Economics 98/14, University of Nottingham. Kormendi, R., Meguire P. (1985). Macroeconomic determinants of growth: cross-country evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16, 141-164. Landau, D. (1983). Government expenditure and economic growth: a cross-country study. Southern Economic Journal 49(3), 783-92. Landau, D. (1986). Government and economic growth in the less developed countries: an empirical study for 1960-1980. Economic Development and Cultural Change 35, 35-75. Lin. S. (1994). Government spending and economic growth. Applied Economics 26, 83-94. Mark, O. (2003). The Fiscal Rule Insulating Nigerias Financial Policy from Oil Prices and Revenue Volatility; in Issues in fiscal Management: Implications for Monetary Policy in Nigeria. CBN; Economic and Financial Review, 11(5). Onoh, J. K. (2007). Dimensions of Nigerias Monetary and Fiscal Policies. Astra Meridian Publishers, Aba Nig. Ram, R. (1986). Government size and economic growth: a new framework and some empirical evidence from cross-section and time series data. American Economic Review 76, 191203. Tabellini, G. and Daveri, F. (1997). Unemployment Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries, Center for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper: 1681

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