Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Sadeddine YAHIA
Guilhem DACH
Cyril KOTAS
Minh-Quang PHAM
Hubert CHRISTOPHE
on
Valeo SA Valuation
Key figures
Beta
WACC
Price per share based on DCF
1.55
8.8%
55.40
Real Value
ASSET
Net assets
Goodwill
Tangible asssets
Intangible asset
Prepaid pension cost
LIABILITIES
Share Capital
Real Value
12/31/2009
12/31/2010
1154
1,665.00
527.00
-
1154
1,655.00
600.00
-
3,346
6%
449
860.00
5.00
4,660
3,795
3,409
4%
422
1,316.00
5.00
5,152
3,831
12/31/2009
235.00
12/31/2010
235.00
1,402.00
511.00 -
51.00
1,402.00
399.00
-
51.00
$5,900,000,000
1,177.00
799.00
1,447.00
1,447
123%
192.00
16%
0
$6,545,000,000
1,289.00
-
1,502.00
1,502
117%
192.00
15%
0
1,639
1,694
OTHER LIABILITIES
DEFERRED INCOME TAXES
1097
16
1089
16
1,113
24%
1,105
21%
TOTAL DEBT
2,752
2,799
TOTAL LIABILITIES
3,929
4,088
Estimation
12/31/2011
1154
1,655.00
820.00
-
3,629
7%
574
1,089.00
5.00
5,297
4,203
12/31/2011
235.00
1,402.00
121.00
-
51.00
$7,288,000,000
1,567.00
-
1,299.00
1,299
83%
192.00
12%
0
0%
1,491
1208
16
1,224
23%
2,715
4,282
VALEO SA
Income statement
( in milions)
Detailed forecast
Real Value
2009
Real Value
2010
Sales
7499
Growth rate
Operating Expenses
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
Depreciation and Amortizatopm
% Fixed Assets
6,361
133
1.8%
49
1.46%
EBIT
Operating margin
Interest Income
Growth rate
9632
28.44%
7,897
1,325
13.8%
735
21.56%
Fading period
Estimation
2012
8636
-10.34%
7,544
1,092
12.6%
553
Estimation
2013
9205
6.59%
7,917
1,288
14.0%
561
15.24%
14.90%
Estimation
2014
9748
5.90%
8,603
1,146
11.8%
512
13.0%
Normative year
Estimation
2015
10255
5.20%
9,099
1,156
11.3%
541
13.0%
Estimation
2016
10727
4.60%
9,509
1,218
11.4%
574
13.0%
Normative year
11156
4.00%
9,874
1,282
11.5%
612
590
6.1%
7
-114%
539
6.2%
27
286%
727
7.9%
43
59%
634
6.5%
46
6%
615
6.0%
48
5%
644
6.0%
50
5%
669
6.0%
52
4%
-107
-126
18%
-107
-15%
-88
-18%
-82
-6%
-77
-6%
-72
-6%
-68
-6%
471
104
367
3.8%
459
158
301
3.5%
682
235
447
4.9%
597
180
417
4.3%
693
209
483
4.7%
716
216
500
4.7%
737
223
515
4.6%
-74
79
-153
-2.0%
11546
3.50%
634
13.05%
13.0%
84
1.1%
-51
Interest Expenses
Growth rate
Estimation
2011
693
6.0%
-197.76%
-6.31%
755
228
527
4.6%
VALEO SA
DCF Model
( in milions)
Detailed forecast
Real Value
Real Value
Estimation
Fading period
Estimation
Estimation
Estimation
Normative year
Estimation
Estimation
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
NOPAT
+ Depreciation and Amortization
-capex
-working cap variation
5
49
-430
109
486
735
-725
27
381
553
-553
-152
492
561
-561
-11
453
512
-514
-11
406
541
-539
-36
427
574
-574
-39
447
612
-612
-41
465
634
-803
-42
FCF
Discount coefficient
DCF
0.09
229
0.92
210
481
0.84
406
440
0.78
342
372
0.71
265
389
0.66
255
406
0.60
245
253
0.60
2878
3,629
574
6.6%
4,203
9.9%
3,764
585
6.4%
4,349
11.7%
3,924
596
6.1%
4,520
10.4%
4,145
632
6.2%
4,778
9.0%
4,401
671
6.3%
5,071
8.9%
4,692
712
6.4%
5,404
8.8%
4857
697
6.0%
5,554
8.6%
Fixed assets
Working capital
WC/Turnover
Capital Employed
RCE
Company value
Net debt
Equity value
Number of share outstanding 2010
3,346
449
6.0%
3,795
4,601.98
440.00
4,161.98
75,124,014.00
55.40
3,409
422
4.4%
3,831
12.8%
Normative year
VALEO SA
Income statement
( in milions)
Risk-free rate
Average debts interest rates (before taxes)
Taxe rate
country risk premium
Adjusted Beta
Beta
3.33%
6.35%
10.3%
6.0%
1.55
1.82
Cost of Equity
Weight of FP dans le passif
Part of the WACC coming from Equity
12.63%
44.71%
5.65%
6.35%
5.69%
55.29%
3.15%
WACC
Equity
Financial debts
Ratio Debt/Equity
Number of share outstanding in 2010
Price per share
Capitalisation FP
8.80%
1,688
1,447
0.86
75.214
15.56
1,170
Date
FedEx
S&P 500
1-Jul-06
28.61
5009.42
1-Aug-06
28.56
5156.04
1-Sep-06
28.13
5250.01
1-Oct-06
29.49
5248.73
1-Nov-06
30.16
5327.64
1-Dec-06
31.53
5541.76
1-Jan-07
35.01
5608.31
1-Feb-07
37.21
5516.32
1-Mar-07
43.91
5634.16
1-Apr-07
42.33
5960.04
1-May-07
42.33
6104
1-Jun-07
39.81
6054.93
1-Jul-07
37.98
5751.08
1-Aug-07
35.57
5662.7
1-Sep-07
39.02
5715.69
1-Oct-07
37.81
5847.95
1-Nov-07
34.5
5670.57
1-Dec-07
28.2
5614.08
1-Jan-08
24.61
4869.79
1-Feb-08
25.13
4790.66
1-Mar-08
25.12
4707.07
1-Apr-08
26.03
4996.54
1-May-08
25.63
5014.28
1-Jun-08
20.4
4434.85
1-Jul-08
20.85
4392.36
1-Aug-08
24.4
4482
1-Sep-08
21.25
4032.1
1-Oct-08
13.59
3487.07
1-Nov-08
9.85
3262.68
1-Dec-08
10.615
3217.97
1-Jan-09
8.74
2973.92
1-Feb-09
9.9
2702.48
1-Mar-09
11.005
2807.34
1-Apr-09
15.715
3159.85
1-May-09
13.98
3277.65
1-Jun-09
13.11
3140.44
1-Jul-09
18.6
3426.27
1-Aug-09
17.76
3653.54
1-Sep-09
17.985
3795.41
1-Oct-09
18.53
3607.69
1-Nov-09
19.055
3680.15
1-Dec-09
24.53
3936.33
1-Jan-10
23.885
3739.46
1-Feb-10
22.415
3708.8
1-Mar-10
26.425
3974.01
1-Apr-10
25.405
3816.99
1-May-10
22.61
3507.56
1-Jun-10
22.505
3442.89
1-Jul-10
27.415
3641.14
1-Aug-10
27.54
3490.79
1-Sep-10
33.985
3715.18
Rent. FedEx
0.18%
1.53%
-4.61%
-2.22%
-4.35%
-9.94%
-5.91%
-15.26%
3.73%
0.00%
6.33%
4.82%
6.78%
-8.84%
3.20%
9.59%
22.34%
14.59%
-2.07%
0.04%
-3.50%
1.56%
25.64%
-2.16%
-14.55%
14.82%
56.36%
37.97%
-7.21%
21.45%
-11.72%
-10.04%
-29.97%
12.41%
6.64%
-29.52%
4.73%
-1.25%
-2.94%
-2.76%
-22.32%
2.70%
6.56%
-15.18%
4.01%
12.36%
0.47%
-17.91%
-0.45%
-18.96%
-12.00%
Rent. S&P500 XY
-
0.03
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.04
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.05
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.01
0.15
0.02
0.02
0.06
0.00
0.13
0.01
0.02
0.11
0.16
0.07
0.01
0.08
0.10
0.04
0.11
0.04
0.04
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.02
0.07
0.05
0.01
0.07
0.04
0.09
0.02
0.05
0.04
0.06
0.03
- 0.0000
- 0.0003
- 0.0000
0.0003
0.0017
0.0012
- 0.0010
0.0032
- 0.0020
0.0005
0.0025
0.0011
0.0008
- 0.0007
0.0030
0.0022
0.0223
- 0.0003
0.0000
0.0020
- 0.0001
0.0335
- 0.0002
0.0029
0.0165
0.0881
0.0261
- 0.0010
0.0176
- 0.0118
0.0038
0.0334
- 0.0045
0.0029
0.0246
- 0.0029
0.0005
- 0.0015
0.0005
0.0145
0.0014
0.0005
0.0101
0.0017
0.0109
0.0001
0.0098
- 0.0002
0.0115
0.0037
X^2
0.0008
0.0003
0.0000
0.0002
0.0015
0.0001
0.0003
0.0004
0.0030
0.0006
0.0001
0.0028
0.0002
0.0001
0.0005
0.0010
0.0001
0.0234
0.0003
0.0003
0.0034
0.0000
0.0171
0.0001
0.0004
0.0125
0.0244
0.0047
0.0002
0.0067
0.0101
0.0014
0.0124
0.0013
0.0019
0.0070
0.0039
0.0014
0.0027
0.0004
0.0042
0.0028
0.0001
0.0045
0.0017
0.0078
0.0004
0.0030
0.0019
0.0036
0.0010
1-Oct-10
1-Nov-10
1-Dec-10
1-Jan-11
1-Feb-11
1-Mar-11
1-Apr-11
1-May-11
38.62
38.605
42.465
42.75
45.1
41.155
42.995
44.02
3833.5
3610.44
3804.78
4005.5
4110.35
3989.18
4106.92
4006.94
0.04%
-9.09%
-0.67%
-5.21%
9.59%
-4.28%
-2.33%
1366.42
1394.46
0.17%
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.42%
0.0000
0.0046
0.0003
0.0013
0.0029
0.0012
- 0.0006
0.0038
0.0026
0.0025
0.0007
0.0009
0.0008
0.0006
0.002508
Variance 0.00325697
Covariance 0.00593166
Raw Bta 1.82122046
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
-0.05
-0.10
-0.15
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
80.00%