chp_06a.

lwp - 09/08/1998

Chapter 6A: Flammable RISKAT

Introduction
The HSE suite of programs known as RISKAT (RISK Assessment Tool), which has been developed progressively over a number of years, is now widely used within MHAU for assessing toxic risks (see Chapter 6B). RISKAT can also be used for assessing flammable risks and the suite of programs which constitute flammable RISKAT is described in this chapter. Throughout this chapter, reference to RISKAT should be interpreted as a reference to the flammable RISKAT suite of programs. Note that the term flammable RISKAT is used for emphasis. RISKAT was originally developed for specialist use but the suite is now available for general use via the MHAU computer network noting that FLAMCALC (see Chapter 2A) is the policy tool for land-use planning assessments involving pressurised bulk LPG installations. A summary of the historical development of RISKAT can be found in PCAS Chapter 6A. The main risk calculations are performed by the FLP1.EXE program and structure of the flammable RISKAT suite of programs is described together with the input and output files it uses and creates as the various operations are performed. Whilst many of the programs which make up RISKAT are DOS programs, the suite now has a Windows based user interface called PCRISKAT which is used to specify input data and view output data. Other RISKAT utility programs, which are operated by using normal Windows icons, are provided for performing further manipulations, e.g. producing unsmoothed risk contours, on the output data generated by the FLP1.EXE program. In addition to handling output data generated by the FLP1.EXE program, some RISKAT programs can also be used to process risk data generated by other MHAU computer programs although at present this facility is mainly used in association with the assessment of toxic risks. At present, RISKAT is used almost exclusively for calculating individual risk and the information in this chapter reflects this. Where the term risk is encountered, this should be interpreted as a reference to individual risk. Reference to societal risk will be specifically identified. Documents which provide the basis for the assessment method are not included in this chapter. However, such documents are referred to and listed in a bibliography as appropriate noting that this chapter contains a limited bibliography specifically concerned with flammable RISKAT. A more comprehensive bibliography relating to RISKAT as a whole is given in Chapter 6B. Also not included in this chapter are detailed instructions for running individual computer programs. These will be found, if appropriate, in documents listed in the bibliography.

Structure of the Flammable RISKAT Suite of Programs

This section is intended only to give a description of the structure of the RISKAT suite of programs. A detailed description of how to specify inputs for and use the output from the RISKAT suite is given elsewhere The RISKAT suite of programs essentially consists of 3 parts, namely: A user interface which provides input and main output functions. A set of programs which perform the risk calculations. Page 1

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 A set of utility programs. The tasks performed during a typical RISKAT assessment are illustrated diagramatically in Figure 6A.1. The main input and output tasks are performed using a Windows program called PCRISKAT. The main calculations involve a set of DOS programs which perform the risk calculations. These DOS programs are operated automatically in sequence by the use of a single Windows icon. Other utility programs are provided to enable the user to produce various risk contours, view output data and print a report. In common with other MHAU program suites, notably PRAM (see Chapter 6C), the RISKAT programs read from and write to datafiles as operations and calculations proceed. In some cases, these datafiles are temporary or indeed they may not be accessible to the user. In other cases, datafiles may form the final output from a particular part of the suite and they may be viewed or processed further by other RISKAT programs. The relationship between the RISKAT programs and their datafiles, which are described below, is shown diagramatically in Figure 6A.2. The main programs which make up the flammable RISKAT suite are:

PCRISKAT
RISKAT requires an input file to be built up and the program PCRISKAT, which contains a specialist text editor, is used to perform this task. PCRISKAT generates the input file (extension IN) and it also produces a text file (extension TXF), which can be imported into a document, which gives a summary of the input data. PCRISKAT is also used to view and plot risk contours using the contour datafile (extension CON) described below.

RUNNER
This program is a run manager which controls the operation of the programs which perform the risk calculations. RUNNER requires the user to enter a file stem which identifies the input (IN) file which is to be used for the calculations. RUNNER executes the DOS programs which perform the calculations. The progress of the calculations is indicated on the screen and any interruptions being signalled by error messages

FLP1
This program performs the risk calculations and produces a number of output files of which the following are the main ones of interest:

SUM
This gives a tabulated output of individual combined (thermal and blast overpressure) risk, at various distances from the source, for various release/hazard combinations (see output section).

CCC
This gives the individual risk values, for the specified hazard thresholds (see inputs section), in each grid square in the required format for use by the RISKAT contouring programs (see below). The risk values in the CCC file cannot be combined with risk values in other CCC files although this will not normally be necessary as for flammable assessments, RISKAT allows multiple vessel locations to be used. Also, it is not possible to combine TTC files (produced by toxic RISKAT and other MHAU programs) with CCC files. Page 2

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 Note: FLP1 also produces a file (extension SOC) which gives the results from the societal risk calculations.

CNNS
This program uses the CCC file to produce the risk contour file (extension CON) which is used by PCRISKAT to display and plot risk contours. The CCC file contains the vessel locations noting that the location of vessel 1 only can be shown on the contour plot. CNNS also produces a file (extension DD) which gives the individual combined (thermal and blast overpressure) risk values in each grid square which are used when running toxic RISKAT (see Chapter 6B) if required to produce combined risk contours (contour data is placed into the CCN file). CNNS, which produces fully smoothed risk contours, runs automatically under the control of RUNNER as part of a normal RISKAT run. Partially and unsmoothed risk contours may be produced using the RISKAT utility program CONTOUR (see below). The RISKAT utility programs are:

CONTOUR
The risk contour file (extension CON) produced by a normal RISKAT run contains data which represent fully smoothed risk contours. CONTOUR allows the user to vary the amount of smoothing by producing a fully, partially or unsmoothed risk contour file (extension CON) from any CCC datafile. CONTOUR is a Windows interface which runs the DOS programs CNNU, CNNL or CNNS to produce unsmoothed, partially smoothed or fully smoothed risk contours respectively.

VALUES
This program, which uses the CCC file, allows the user to view the risk grid.

REPORT
This program, which uses the TXF and SUM files, produces a pre-formatted report which gives details of the inputs and a table showing, for each vessel, the combined (thermal and blast overpressure) individual risks, at various distances from the source, various release/hazard combinations (see output section).

RISKGRAF
This program, which uses the SUM and the SOC files, allows the user to view and/or print graphs showing the risks calculated by RISKAT.

Use of the Flammable RISKAT Suite of Programs

This section gives details of when and how to use the flammable RISKAT suite of programs. To use flammable RISKAT correctly, it would be necessary to carry out a site visit to determine, in particular, details (layout, diameter, number of fittings etc.) of the pipework associated with the storage vessels, tanker movement details and vessel fill level patterns. The pipework details would enable the hot whole vessel failure frequency to be determined to which the risks predicted by flammable RISKAT are particularly sensitive. However, the computer program ALIBI which is used to predict the hot failure frequency from site details is not yet generally available, hence the description given here relates to the use of flammable RISKAT with the generic hot failure frequency. Page 3

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 RISKAT was developed to provide a complete assessment package and it offers a full range of facilities for viewing and printing output data. In particular, it is at present the only MHAU program which enables the user to view and plot risk contours. Other MHAU programs, notably FRISK (see Chapter 6G) which can be used for assessing flammable risks, produce output (TTC file) which can be used by RISKAT to produce risk contours. Chapter 6B describes how this may be done.

When to Use Flammable RISKAT

Flammable RISKAT was made generally available in MHAU in early 1991 and it was intended at the time that it would eventually be used to produce risk based land-use planning advice for developments around LPG installations. MHAU inspectors were requested to carry out both a hazard based assessment using FLAMCALC (see Chapter 2A) and a risk based assessment using RISKAT for casework associated with LPG installations. In this way, experience with RISKAT would be gained whilst hazard analysis remained the primary decision making tool. Due to the difficulties with providing information for and using ALIBI, as described elsewhere, the status quo still remains, with RISKAT being used if necessary to back up a hazard based decision. Whilst the use of RISKAT remains optional for the assessment of proposed developments around existing LPG installations, a flammable RISKAT assessment should be carried out for all proposed new LPG installations involving bulk pressurised storage. Proposed new LPG installations are also assessed using the hazard index method (see Chapter 8A), in conjunction with FLAMCALC (see Chapter 2A), which is the policy tool for the assessment of such installations. Above ground storage installations make up the majority of LPG installations in the UK and such installations generally lend themselves to a generic RISKAT assessment using the default input data presented. Other LPG installations such as those which employ buried or mounded tanks may also be assessed using RISKAT and the modifications required to the default input data are described. Most LPG installations are supplied by tanker and failures associated with the tanker are normally included in a flammable RISKAT assessment. Whilst RISKAT can be used for installations handling LPG, risk based assessments for installations handling other flammable substances can be carried out using the MHAU program FRISK (see Chapter 6G) which is able to calculate risks using hazard range circles and plume (isopleth) dimensions (for wind blown flammable clouds) as its inputs. Whilst MHAU is at present mainly concerned with assessing individual risk for land-use planning, flammable RISKAT does include a facility for calculating societal risk. This facility is not currently used for normal MHAU casework but it is referred to in this chapter for completeness. Users wishing to use this facility for casework should consult the appropriate MHAU topic specialist.

Inputs for Flammable RISKAT

The RISKAT user interface (PCRISKAT) is structured in a very similar way to its Gem predecessor (TRISK) in that it uses a set of pull down menus under which various menu items are grouped. The description given here generally refers to each menu in turn in a sequence which represents the order in which a typical set of RISKAT run inputs would be specified. Menu items which are concerned with producing output from RISKAT are described elsewhere in this chapter.

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Startup
When the user interface is started, the user is prompted to select Flammable or Toxic mode. It is possible to change mode in the middle of a session, using the Options - Mode menu item, as described below.

The File Menu

The File menu contains a set of options, namely New, Open, Save and Save As, which are common to many Windows programs. Use of the New and Open options will overwrite any input data which are present in PCRISKAT. Note that when Open is used, there is no prompt to warn that these data will be lost. The Open option will display a list of input files (extension IN) which are available from the default RISKAT data directory (on the MHAU file server). If there are a large number of files available, they may not all be included in the list (Windows message advises) in which case, if the required file is not listed, its name may be entered in the text box. Input files may be read from other directories but to enable them to be used by RISKAT they must be saved, using the Save As option, to the default RISKAT data directory. The Save option normally writes input data to the specified input file overwriting existing data unless the file is new ("Untitled" in the main title bar), in which case, the Save As input box appears. New files should be named in accordance with the MHAU computer network etiquette (see Policy & Process Document, Section 3.3). If a datafile with the chosen filename already exists, the user will be warned. Whilst it is only strictly necessary to save files when inputting of data is complete, it is good practice to save at regular intervals as inputs are entered. In this way, if there is a computer malfunction all of your work will not be lost. It should be noted that a 'new' RISKAT file contains a set of default values which specify all inputs. Users should therefore ensure that all inputs are checked before exiting the user interface (PCRISKAT) to make sure that they have been correctly specified for the assessment being performed. It should be noted that when the Save or Save As options are used, operations are performed on the main input (IN) file and the input text file (extension TXF). When exiting using the Exit option, users are prompted to ensure that data have been saved noting that this is not the case if the Windows control box is use to close PCRISKAT.

The Edit Menu

This menu is used to specify the majority of the RISKAT inputs. Inputs may be installation related or vessel related. In the former case, these inputs may only be edited when the inputs for vessel 1 are being edited, i.e. vessel 1 is selected as the current vessel.

Vessel Data
This menu item allows the user to specify the number of LPG vessels for the installation noting that up to 24 vessels can be specified noting that the delivery tanker should normally be included as a vessel. Having set the number of vessels, the current vessel should be set to 1 to allow its inputs and the inputs for the installation as a whole to be specified. Inputs for other vessels should then be Page 5

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 specified noting that the current vessel can only be changed by returning to this menu item (the current vessel is normally identified in the main title bar except when it is vessel 1).

Gas Parameters
This menu item is vessel related and for each vessel, the contents (propane or butane), the capacity (te) and the location should be specified noting that each vessel can also be given a title. Note that a bug (to be corrected) in the current version of the flammable RISKAT code means that the name for vessel 1 is not saved to the IN file. The assumed vessel relief (bursting) pressure, appropriate to its contents, is displayed noting that this input is used by the fireball model in RISKAT to calculate the surface emissive power. The relief pressure is not editable, thus RISKAT cannot correctly model the situation where butane is stored in a propane vessel noting that this limitation will be eliminated in future versions of RISKAT. The vessel capacities are normally their maximum working capacities. Variability of inventories is taken care of by specifying vessel fill probabilities using the Edit - Release menu item (see paragraphs below). The vessel locations are set by specifying the X and Y co-ordinates of the grid square containing the vessel. For a typical flammable RISKAT assessment, the vessels should be located around the centre of a grid which consists of 35 x 26, 50 metre grid squares thus the central location would be X = 18, Y = 13 (or 14). If flammable risks are to be combined with toxic risks, the grid dimensions for both assessments should be the same noting that toxic RISKAT assessments normally require a 100 m grid square. The central location will normally make the best use of the area within the grid by allowing the risk contours to extend the maximum distance on the risk contour plot. The area of coverage can be increased by increasing the grid square size or by splitting the risk zone into a number of separate RISKAT grids and performing separate RISKAT runs for each grid. In the latter case, the vessel locations are specified separately in each RISKAT run and the resulting risk contour plots can be joined together to form a large grid. Note that all other RISKAT inputs are identical for all of the runs. Details of how to specify the grid dimensions are given in the description of the Grid - Dimensions menu item. Multiple vessels which are relatively close together, i.e. within the same grid square, can be assumed to be at the same location. Where there are a number of vessels of the same capacity within the same grid square, it may be convenient to specify only one vessel and increase the failure frequencies accordingly thus reducing the amount of data which needs to be inputted. This may be done subject to the fill level patterns for the vessels being the same.

Population
Each of the grid squares can be allocated a population density which is characteristic of four population types and this menu item, which is installation related, allows the densities for these four population types to be specified. The population densities are not used by flammable RISKAT when calculating individual risk but they are used for societal risk calculations. The population types and their default densities (persons per km2) are: Industrial: 200 Urban: 10000 Rural: 20 Special: 0

Each of the population types can be assigned a density of between 0 and 999999 persons per km2.

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chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 This menu item is also used to specify the percentage of time the population spends out of doors in the two flammable RISKAT weather categories, i.e. D5 and F2. These are normally set to 10% and 1% respectively which are assumed to represent typical population behaviour during daytime and night-time conditions.

Weather
This menu item, which is installation related, allows the user to load a weather station and/or edit the weather data noting that reference weather is preloaded as a default for new files. Weather data is loaded from a weather datafile (extension WEA) which provides the wind direction and stability data which are used by RISKAT. The weather station used should normally be the one closest to the installation being assessed. Guidance on the weather stations available is given in Chapter 5C. Flammable RISKAT only uses two weather types, i.e. D5 which is representative of daytime weather and F2 which occurs at night. The probabilities of these two weather types and their wind sector modifiers are derived from the weather station data as described in Chapter 5C. In addition to allowing actual weather station data to be loaded, this menu item allows the user to modify the selected weather data. This facility can be useful when credit can be claimed for operating constraints which restrict operations, e.g tanker offloading, to certain times of the day (see Chapter 5C). However, it should be noted that since weather data are installation related, it is not possible to apply separate data to individual vessels. Amendments can be made to the D5 and the F2 weather probabilities and the wind sector probabilities noting that probabilities should add up to one (error checking by PCRISKAT does not allow incorrect data to be generated). Weather data are saved as part of the input file (extension IN) noting that the weather station name is also saved even when the data have been amended. The weather station name is used every time the input file is loaded to allow PCRISKAT to identify the original source of the weather data to the user. Note that a bug (to be corrected) in the current version of the PCRISKAT code means that weather data is set to reference data every time a file is loaded irrespective of the weather station specified in the input file. Whatever amendments are made, if flammable and toxic risks are to be combined, the weather data for both assessments should normally correspond.

Contours
This menu item, which is installation related, allows the user to specify the dose thresholds and the individual risk values which RISKAT will use to produce risk contours. Flammable RISKAT calculates the risks of receiving specified thermal radiation dose and risks of being subjected to specified blast over pressures. Up to 6 dose thresholds for each hazard can be entered and MHAU is normally interested in thermal radiation doses of 500, 1000 and 2300 s.(kW/m2)4/3 (see Chapter 2A) and blast overpressures of 70, 140 and 600 mbar (see Chapter 3B). Note that the default values given by RISKAT include these values of interest. RISKAT also calculates combined risks of receiving a thermal dose of 1000 s.(kW/m2)4/3 or a blast overpressure of 140 mbar. Contours for this combined risk may be produced and the summary output file (extension SUM) also contains combined (uniform wind rose) risk values. Up to 6 risk contours can be produced for each hazard noting that the risk values specified are used for all three, namely thermal, blast overpressure and combined, hazards. RISKAT default values for Page 7

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 these contours are 0.3, 1, 3, 10 and 30 chances per million per year. Note that where RISKAT is being used to back up a hazard based assessment on an individual development proposal or for a new installation, the risks in each grid square may often be more useful than the risk contours. In addition to being able to generate risk contours for risk of receiving a certain dose, flammable RISKAT also calculates the individual risk of death and up to 6 risk contour values can be specified independently of the values for the other risk contours.

Pipework Holes
RISKAT assumes that (cold) failure of the pipework associated with LPG vessels is possible and hole sizes of 13, 25 and 50 mm are specified with default weather dependent release rates being given for propane and butane as follows: D5 release rates kg/s 13 mm 25 mm 0.55 2.2 0.24 0.96 F2 release rates kg/s 13 mm 25 mm 0.4 1.9 0.2 0.8

Hole size > Propane Butane

50 mm 8.8 3.85

50 mm 7.6 3.2

Weather dependency is due to higher ambient temperature during the daytime. For fixed storage vessels, default failure frequencies are given for the three release sizes and RISKAT assumes that such failures will not lead to ignition at the source. Delayed ignition is assumed as the flammable plume develops downwind and probabilities, which are not weather dependent, are given for this. The default data are as follows: Failure frequencies y-1 13 mm 25 mm -4 5 x 10 1 x 10-4 Delayed ignition probabilities 13 mm 25 mm 50 mm 0.14 0.25 0.6

Hole size >

50 mm 5 x 10-5

Note that whilst these defaults are not substance dependent, different probabilities can be used if required for propane and butane because these inputs are vessel related and vessels may hold either substance. The origins of the default failure frequencies are not clear but the frequencies appear to be based on assuming 100 metres of liquid pipework noting that the failures rates (m-1 y-1) do not correspond to those used for the chlorine siting policy (see Chapter 1B). If site specific information is available, the default failure frequencies can be modified if required although it is not standard practice to do so.. General guidance on pipework failure frequencies is given in Chapter 6K. On delayed ignition of the flammable plume, either a vapour cloud explosion or a flash fire may occur as described in the calculations section of this chapter. It is assumed that a larger release increases the probability of delayed ignition and the default ignition probabilities reflect this. The default probabilities assume no weather or substance dependency although different probabilities can be used for propane and butane if required because these inputs are vessel related and vessels may hold either substance. Pipework and vessel hole release scenarios will need to be modified when modelling releases associated with tankers. To do this, MHAU (see PCAG Chapter 1A) assumes that pipework holes include releases from all leak sources including coupling failures and holes in the tanker, and hence, vessel hole frequencies (see Vessel Holes menu item) should be set to zero. The above default release rate data should be used noting that releases are assumed to be due to guillotine failures of Page 8

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 pipework (failure frequencies determined as below). If not present on the tanker or the delivery line, the failure frequencies (see below) for larger line sizes should be set to zero. Note however that this will have the effect of causing larger vessel hole failures to be neglected. For releases from tankers, the default failure probabilities are taken to be per delivery as follows: Failure probabilities delivery-1 13 mm 25 mm 50 mm -7 -7 9 x 10 9 x 10 1.8 x 10-7

Hole size >

The failure frequencies (y-1) to be entered into RISKAT are then obtained using the site specific number of deliveries per year and multiplying it by the above probabilities noting that for the larger releases, the frequencies may be zero as discussed previously.

Vessel Holes
RISKAT assumes that limited (cold) vessel failures are possible resulting in hole sizes of 13, 25 and 50 mm and default release rates are given for propane and butane as follows: Release rates kg/s 13 mm 25 mm 2 7.5 1.1 4

Hole size > Propane Butane

50 mm 30.1 16.1

Note that RISKAT currently assumes that vessel hole release rates are not weather dependent. Default failure frequencies are given for the three release sizes and these failure frequencies, which are generic and taken directly from the chlorine siting policy (see Chapter 1B) are as follows: Failure frequencies y-1 13 mm 25 mm 50 mm 1 x 10-5 5 x 10-6 5 x 10-6

Hole size >

Note that when modelling tanker releases, these frequencies should be set to zero. In the event of limited vessel failures, as with pipework failures, the resulting releases are assumed not to ignite at source and default probabilities for this are given as follows: Delayed ignition probabilities 13 mm 25 mm 50 mm 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.6 0.9

Hole size > D5 F2

Note that RISKAT gives default probabilities which are not weather dependent but allows weather dependency if required.

Release
This menu item is used to specify the main parameters for whole vessel failures. Whole vessel failure may be as a result of either hot or cold failure with the former normally being due to flame impingement from a pipework release. Page 9

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 For fixed storage vessels, a default frequency of 1 x 10-5 per year is given for hot whole vessel failure. If the vessel is buried or mounded, hot whole vessel failure can normally be discounted and the failure frequency should thus be set to zero. For tankers, the hot failure frequency is taken to be per delivery and a default failure probability of 1.3 x 10-7 per delivery is taken. The failure frequency (y-1) to be entered into RISKAT is then obtained using the site specific number of deliveries per year and multiplying it by the above probability. As noted elsewhere, the risks calculated by RISKAT are very dependent on the hot whole vessel failure frequency. Whilst a method (ALIBI) is under development to predict site specific hot failure frequencies, it is not generally available within MHAU. The appropriate MHAU topic specialist should be consulted for further information. For fixed vessels and tankers, the default cold whole vessel failure frequency is the lower bound value taken from the chlorine siting policy (see Chapter 1B), i.e. 2 x 10-6 per year. Using this frequency for tankers assumes that a tanker is always present and normally, except in cases where tankers are parked on site overnight, this will not be the case. Reduction of this frequency to allow for tanker occupancy is therefore normally justified. General guidance on whole vessel failure frequencies is given in Chapter 6K. In the event of cold whole vessel failure, the fraction of the LPG which becomes airborne, such that it can become involved in a fireball or form a flammable cloud, will depend on the substance, the nature of the release and the weather conditions when the vessel fails. Releases due to cold whole vessel failures are assumed to be directed upwards or downwards with equal probability. When directed upwards rapid mixing of the flashing LPG (propane or butane) is assumed such that all of the liquid evaporates and becomes airborne. When directed downwards, momentum will be lost such that mixing will not be so efficient, however, it is still assumed that with propane, all of the released liquid evaporates. With butane however, the fraction which evaporates is weather dependent and the fractions, which are now automatically put into the input file by PCRISKAT are 0.88 and 0.62 for D5 and F2 respectively. Note that in previous versions of flammable RISKAT, these inputs could be edited. RISKAT allows the vessel inventories to be varied to take account of the LPG being used and the vessels being replenished. RISKAT gives the following default vessel full fractions and probabilities for fixed vessels with the default values for tankers also being given: Vessel full fraction > Fixed Vessel Probabilities > Tanker Probabilities > Note that probabilities must add up to 1. The fixed vessel data are intended to be typical of fixed vessels at LPG installations where the LPG is used continuously. Some installations act as standby fuel supplies and these data would not apply to these as high fixed vessel fill levels would tend to dominate at these installations. Equally, where tankers feed relatively small fixed vessels frequently, the fixed vessel fill levels may need to be biased more towards lower fill levels. If available, data collected during site visits should be used to modify the default vessel fill level patterns. It should be noted that these data represent operating patterns and do not take account of any inventory which may be lost by vessel relief prior to hot whole vessel failure as RISKAT uses the same vessel inventory for hot and cold whole vessel failures. For a FLAMCALC assessment, Page 10 1 0.1 0.75 0.66 0.75 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.33 0.04 0.04 0 0.01 0.01

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 account is normally taken of venting of LPG prior to vessel burst when modelling fireball consequences (see Chapter 2A).

Ignition Ratios
Drifting clouds resulting from cold whole vessel failures are assumed to remain unignited until they encounter a source of ignition. On ignition, a vapour cloud explosion (VCE) or a flash fire (FF) may result. RISKAT assumes that whilst the flammable concentration of a drifting cloud is above the lower flammable limit, the probability of it being ignited, as it drifts 900 metres over industrial land, is close to unity, i.e. 0.999999, in D5 weather and 0.9 in F2 weather. For other population types, the ignition probabilities are ratios of the industrial probabilities and the default values are: Urban: 0.8 Rural: 0.1 Special: 0.01

Event Probabilities
Having defined the main release parameters for cold (pipework, limited and whole vessel) failures, RISKAT uses event trees to quantify the outcome of these cold release events (see calculations section of this chapter - in PCAS Chapter 6A). For whole vessel failures, a proportion of releases are assumed to find an ignition source close to the release point such that a fireball occurs and default immediate ignition probabilities of 0.05 are used for both upward and downward releases. Whole vessel failures which cause upward releases which do not ignite immediately are assumed to give rise to momentum driven clouds which rapidly disperse. These may or may not be subject to delayed local ignition before the cloud disperses such that the flammable concentration falls below the lower flammable limit. Default RISKAT probabilities assume that of the momentum driven clouds which ignite locally, 50% cause a VCE and 50% cause a flashfire (FF) (note that if the default values are amended, the total should add up to 100%). Unignited whole vessel failures which cause downward releases and pipework/vessel holes are assumed to give drifting clouds or plumes. If these encounter an ignition source, a weather dependent proportion of ignitions are assumed to cause a vapour cloud explosion (VCE). Default probabilities of 0.33 and 0.1 are given in D5 and F2 weathers respectively. The remaining proportion of ignitions are assumed to give rise to flashfires. For hazard assessments of LPG installations, it may sometimes be possible to discount vapour cloud explosions (see Chapter 3B). VCEs can effectively be eliminated from RISKAT by setting all the VCE probabilities to zero noting the with momentum driven clouds, the % probabilities of local ignition giving a flashfire or a VCE (see previous paragraphs) should be 99 and 1 respectively. The use of a non zero probability for VCE avoids possible problems when using PCRISKAT to display/plot contours (see paragraph below).

The Grid Menu

This menu is used to specify the parameters which describe the risk grid and it also controls whether or not the risk grid is displayed on the screen.

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Dimensions
This menu item is used to specify the size of the grid squares and the overall extent of the grid, i.e. the number of grid squares. The co-ordinates of the bottom left hand corner grid square are currently fixed at 1, 1 and the largest possible grid is 75 x 75 squares (a bug (to be corrected) in the current version of flammable RISKAT causes a run error if the grid has more than 50 x 50 squares). Grid square sizes of 25, 50 100 and 250 metres can be selected. A RISKAT assessment is normally performed by firstly obtaining a map of the area containing the installation being assessed (the installation should normally be in the centre except when performing multiple or development specific assessments). Ordnance survey maps used for RISKAT assessments are normally 1:10000 scale although larger scale maps can be used where more detail is required. On a 1:10000 map, an outer risk contour at 0.5 km equates to 5 cm which would give rather a small plot on an A3 sheet. Maps of a larger scale than 1:10000 can be produced by enlarging on a photocopier noting that the actual map scale should be checked. Printouts of maps in cases presented to the MHAU Panel should include a scale (see Chapter 8C). For installations in urban areas, local street maps may be used but again, the scale of the map should be checked (most maps show 1 km squares) particularly if it is old (O S maps used to 1:10560, i.e. 6 inches to the mile). Larger scale maps may be used for multiple grid assessments where there is a need to plot the risk contours on more than one sheet of A3. Also for development specific assessments, it will often only be necessary to show the installation and the area in the direction of the development, in which case, the extra resolution given by a larger scale map may be beneficial in deciding the case, particularly if it straddles a risk contour. To enable grid squares to be superimposed on the map, MHAU has produced a set of A3 overlays which may, if required, be photocopied onto the map. In any case, the position of the grid relative to the map must be identified for contour plotting. If a map without grid squares is required for contour plotting, then the bottom left and top right hand corners of the grid must be marked on the map to enable the plotter to correctly position the contours. The overlays have the following dimensions: Map Scale 1:2500 1:2500 1:5000 1:5000 1:10000 Grid Square Size 25 m 50 m 50 m 100 m 100 m Number of Grid Squares X - 35, Y - 26 X - 19, Y - 13 X - 35, Y - 26 X - 19, Y - 13 X - 35, Y - 26 Overall Grid Extent 0.875 x 0.65 km 0.95 x 0.65 km 1.75 x 1.3 km 1.9 x 1.3 km 3.5 x 2.6 km

The grid dimensions used in the RISKAT assessment will dictate the size and extent of the plot produced noting that the risk contours are plotted onto an A3 sheet and no scaling is possible when the printout is produced. Manipulation of the size and extent of the contours, the grid and the map are all possible after plotting by use of a photocopier but this is not recommended. The grid dimensions used in the RISKAT assessment should therefore normally be the same as those of the overlay used and the actual scale of the map should be the same as the scale of the overlay which is printed on it.

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Edit
This menu item is used to assign a population density to each grid square. There are 4 population types (see menu item Edit Population) and the default type is urban. Population data are used by flammable RISKAT when calculating individual risk to determine ignition probabilities for drifting flammable clouds, and for societal risk calculations. The grid editor displays a 10 x 10 section of the grid and other areas of the grid are accessed using scroll bars.

Visible
This menu item hides or makes visible the population grid on the main PCRISKAT screen noting that no grid square borders are displayed. The population grid represents shows each grid square in a colour which reflects the population type (see Population menu item) as follows: Industrial: Yellow Urban: Red Rural: Green Special: Blue

If the grid population editor is in use, changes made to the population type will be reflected in the displayed population grid noting that some grid squares may be covered by the edit grid. Other changes to the population grid, e.g. changes to the grid dimension, which are not made using the grid editor, are not immediately reflected and the population grid has to be redisplayed to show the changes. The size and position of the displayed grid can be changed by using the mouse to drag the borders and corners as with other Windows applications noting that the correct aspect ratio is maintained. Resizing operations only alter the scale of the grid on the screen and the scale of any risk contours shown on the screen are adjusted accordingly.

The Options Menu

This menu allows the user to enter a main title for the run which is used to identify some of the datafiles and the output and it enables the user to change between the flammable and toxic modes of PCRISKAT in the middle of a session.

Summary
A main title may be entered which appears in various datafiles and also identifies the report. produced by the RISKAT utility program REPORT. The input box also displays the thermal radiation dose and blast overpressure which are used to calculate combined risks noting that these are pre-set by RISKAT and are not editable.

Mode
If it is a data inputting session, changing mode will cause all input data, which have been entered or amended since the last (if any) file save, to be discarded noting that a prompt warns of this. Accordingly, if the entered/amended input data are required for future use, they should be saved using the File - Save or Save As menu items as previously described.

Once all the input data have been entered, it should be saved using the Menu items File - Save or File Save As (as described previously) because it is necessary to exit PCRISKAT in order to perform Page 13

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 RISKAT calculations. When the File - Exit menu item is used, PCRISKAT reminds the user to save any modified data.

Running Flammable RISKAT

The programs which perform the risk calculations for a RISKAT assessment are a set of mainly DOS programs which are started by using the Run RISKAT icon. This brings up a screen which allows the user to select either a toxic or a flammable input file (default is toxic). A list of IN files is displayed and clicking on the chosen file copies it to the input file box. Alternatively, the required IN file name can be entered. It should be noted that when carrying out a flammable RISKAT run, the screen does not allow the risks to be combined with toxic risks. Flammable risks may be combined with toxic risks by carrying out flammable RISKAT run followed by a toxic RISKAT run using the combine risks option (see Chapter 6B). Once initiated by clicking on the Execute button, the RISKAT run continues automatically with the progress of the calculations being shown on the screen noting that a typical flammable RISKAT run with only one vessel may take several minutes. Any errors which occur during running are signalled on the screen and execution is normally terminated. Errors are rare but they could be caused by a corrupted input file noting that RISKAT input files are available to all MHAU computer network users. If run errors do occur, the inputs should be verified by use of PCRISKAT. In particular, all vessel and pipework release scenarios should be checked for completeness and weather data should be checked if non standard weather is being used. PCRISKAT includes some error checking to minimise the possibility of errors occurring. If no obvious errors are found in the inputs, consult the appropriate topic specialist. The final RISKAT program which runs is the contour plotting program CNNS and the final DOS message should read Stop Program Terminated if all is well although with fast computers, some messages may be missed.

Output from Flammable RISKAT

This section describes how the contours from a flammable RISKAT assessment can be viewed and/or plotted using the user interface PCRISKAT. Other output from RISKAT consists of a number of datafiles and this section describes these datafiles and how they are used to generate output making reference to the use of RISKAT utility programs as described elsewhere in this chapter. The RISKAT user interface (PCRISKAT) is structured in a very similar way to its Gem predecessor (TRISK) in that it uses a set of pull down menus under which various menu items are grouped. The description given here relates only to menus which are used for producing output from RISKAT. Menu items which are concerned with specifying inputs are described elsewhere in this chapter (see paragraphs above).

The Contours Menu

This menu allows the risk contours to be displayed on the screen, superimposed on the population grid. Various contours can be displayed depending on what has been asked for whilst setting inputs (see Contours menu item). Note that in the current version of PCRISKAT, if combined contours are selected and VCE has been totally eliminated from the assessment by setting all VCE probabilities to zero, PCRISKAT will crash (combined contours are of no relevance anyway because only thermal Page 14

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 risks are present). This can be avoided if required by setting a very low but non-zero VCE probability for locally ignited momentum driven clouds (see paragraph above).

Risk of Death, Risk of Combined Dose

These menu items display the chosen contours directly.

Risk of Radiation Hazard Level, Risk of Overpressure Hazard Level

These menu items require the user to select a hazard level for which the contours will produced. The flammable risk contours displayed will, for a standard RISKAT assessment, be fully smoothed. The data used to produce these contours are contained in the datafile (extension CON) produced by the program CNNS which PCRISKAT reads. If this datafile is not available, an error message is displayed and acknowledgement of the error message displays the population grid with no contours. The absence of the CON file usually means that risk calculations have not been performed for the currently selected input file (be it a new or named file). With the population grid and contours displayed, an information facility is provided (double click the mouse with the cursor over the displayed grid) which enables the nature of the displayed plot to be varied noting that the printed plot (see Plot menu item) will reflect the displayed plot. In particular, the risk contours can be simply numbered or identified by the risk value they represent. The vessel position can be identified by a cross noting that with multi-vessel contours only the location of the first vessel can be identified making this facility redundant. The cross may be removed using the information facility.

The File Menu

Whilst mainly being used for input file handling, this menu also gives access to the PCRISKAT plotting routine which allows the risk contours to be plotted onto paper (or an acetate) using an X-Y plotter.

Plot
This menu item can only be used to produce a plot of the risk contours if they are displayed on the screen (see the Contours menu). The risk contours are plotted to correspond to the grid square size which was used as an input to RISKAT (see Grid - Dimensions menu item). The plotting routine does not allow the scale of the plot to be changed from the pre-set value. When using the plotter (contours can be sent to the printer), which prints the contours onto an A3 sheet, the location of the grid relative to the A3 sheet normally needs to be specified. This operation, which must be performed for each plot, is carried out by moving the plotting pen to the bottom left hand corner (position P1) and the top right hand corner (position P2) of the grid and sending the data from the plotter to the computer. These positions will have been previously marked on the sheet either by hand or by photocopying the grid overlay onto the sheet (see Grid - Dimensions menu item). PCRISKAT expects the two corner positions to be correct relative to each other noting that it is the position of the grid on the sheet which is being specified, not its size. If the relative positions are not within certain tolerances, a warning message will be displayed indicating that the aspect ratio is not correct. Plotting can still proceed but the contours will be distorted. Page 15

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 A legend is printed on the sheet to identify the plot and the position in which this legend is printed can be changed. Note that the manner in which the contours are identified on the plot is set using the plot information facility (Contours menu). If grid squares have not been previously photocopied onto the sheet, these can be added as part of the plot.

Output Datafiles
The main output datafiles are described in the following paragraphs. The TXF file which contains a summary of the inputs. This file, which is used by the RISKAT utility program REPORT (see Paragraphs 118 and 119), is in report style text format and as such, it may be taken directly into a word processor document. The SUM file gives, for each vessel, a tabulated summary of the combined (thermal and blast overpressure) individual risk, at various distances from the source, for various release/hazard combinations (see description of the RISKAT utility program REPORT) and a total risk. Overall total risks are not given as vessels may be at different locations. Total (wind sector) combined risks in each grid square can be obtained using the RISKAT utility program VALUES (see paragraphs below). The risks given are uniform wind rose risks noting that polar wind sector risks are not produced by flammable RISKAT. The SUM file, which is used by the RISKAT utility program REPORT (see paragraphs below), is in report style text format and as such, it may be taken directly into a word processor document. The CCC file which gives the individual wind sector risk values in each grid square for each scenario. These risk values can be viewed and/or printed using the utility program VALUES which is described elsewhere. The CCC file also provides the vessel locations and the user interface PCRISKAT can include the location of the first vessel only in the contour plot. CCC files can also be used by the RISKAT utility program CONTOUR, which is described elsewhere, to produce risk contours with varying amounts of smoothing. The DD file which gives the total (all scenarios) individual wind sector risk values in each grid square which are used when running toxic RISKAT (see Chapter 6B) if required to produce combined risk contours (contour data is placed into the CCN file). The CON file which contains the risk contour data which are used by PCRISKAT to display and/or plot risk contours. The SOC file which gives the societal risk values for each vessel and the total societal risk.

Using the RISKAT Utility Programs

Utility programs provided as part of the flammable RISKAT suite are used to view and/or print output data (the user interface PCRISKAT used to view and/or print risk contours - see paragraphs above). The RISKAT utility programs used for viewing and/or printing output are:

REPORT
This program, which uses the TXF and SUM files (the IN file extension is shown in the file selection list box), produces a pre-formatted report which gives details of the inputs and a table showing, for Page 16

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 each vessel, the uniform wind rose individual risks for each scenario and total individual risk. The scenarios are: Fireball from hot whole vessel failures giving a thermal radiation dose. Fireball/VCE/FF from cold whole vessel failures giving a thermal radiation dose. VCE from cold whole vessel failures giving a blast overpressure. VCE/FF from vessel holes giving a thermal radiation dose. VCE from vessel holes giving a blast overpressure. VCE/FF from pipework holes giving a thermal radiation dose. VCE from pipework holes giving a blast overpressure. The RISKAT datafiles accessed by REPORT are text files which can be viewed using any text editor or word processor although use of REPORT is preferred because it does not allow any editing of data, hence there is no risk of files being edited accidentally. It should be noted that RISKAT datafiles stored on the file server are accessible to anyone in MHAU and are not write protected.

VALUES
This program allows the risk values in the grid squares to be viewed and/or printed. The datafile (extension CCC) is selected from a list and option buttons allow the user to choose which risk values to display noting that blast overpressure levels are given in psig (1psi is approximately 70 mbar). A grid containing 7 x 7 squares containing their risk values is displayed on the screen. Scroll bars allow the entire risk grid to be browsed and the File Print menu item allows the displayed 7 x 7 risk grid to be printed. The Grid menu displays the grid square size (not currently available with flammable risks) and the overall extent of the grid. Obtaining the individual risk values in each grid square can be useful for developments which straddle land-use planning consultation zones based on RISKAT risk contours. An outline of the development can be drawn on the VALUES printout and the risks at various points on the development can then be obtained. The use of this technique is particularly important for marginal cases as the smoothing process used to generate the RISKAT risk contours does mean that the position of the contour line may vary depending on the degree of smoothing used. This matter is discussed more fully in connection with the RISKAT utility program CONTOUR.

RISKGRAF
This program allows the uniform wind rose individual risks to be displayed and/or printed in graphical form. The program operates in 4 different modes which allow individual and societal toxic (and flammable) risks to be graphed. The program requires the path to be set up which identifies where the SUM and SOC files, which it uses, are located. The filename (without the extension) is then entered and the program then allows the user to select the graph which is to be displayed and/or printed. For each vessel, the combined (thermal and blast overpressure) individual risks for the various release/hazard combinations or the total risk can be selected for graphing. Societal risks can also be graphed. The displayed risk curve can be used to estimate the risks in between the fixed distances which RISKAT uses noting that RISKGRAF can only display uniform wind rose risks. It should also be noted that the displayed curve uses an interpolation routine which means that the risks between the fixed RISKAT distances are only approximate.

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CONTOUR
This program allows the amount of smoothing to be varied for the risk contours produced by RISKAT. Fully smoothed contours are normally produced by the RISKAT suite using the contour program CNNS (see paragraph above). Where developments are close to risk contours, errors introduced by the smoothing process may be significant and CONTOUR allows the effect of unsmoothed or partially smoothed contours to be investigated. For these marginal cases, risks at individual positions on the development can also be obtained using VALUES (see paragraphs above). CONTOUR uses the CCC file (the IN file extension is shown in the file selection list box) to produce the contour file (extension CON) which is used by the user interface PCRISKAT. Each time CONTOUR is used, the existing CON datafile is overwritten thus only one version of the contours can be viewed/plotted by PCRISKAT at a time.

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Bibliography
The following is a list of documents which contain the background information which has been used in the preparation of this chapter. The majority of documents listed are readily accessible via the MHAU filing system and any books listed may usually be obtained from either the HSE library or from members of MHAU. However, documents which are highlighted in bold type are less readily accessible and reference copies of these are kept by the PCAG topic specialist. Where appropriate, a number, e.g. 1/C, after the document title identifies its location in the PCAG bibliography files (i.e. document C in file 1 in the case of the example given). MHAU Computer Section IT Minute No 1. 23/07/91 (now Policy and Processes Section 3.3). MHAU Minute M 53 - PC - RISKAT for Toxics and LPG, Undated (now archived). MHAU Minute M 64 - PC RISKAT Version 1.6, Undated (now archived). MHAU General Paper G134 - Determination of Consultation Distances for Mounded and Underground LPG Installations. 19th July 1990 (now archived). General Risk Assessment for Installations Where LPG is Stored in Bulk, Above Ground Vessels, P J Crossthwaite. Colloquium Discussion Paper and Supplementary Paper (Vapour Cloud Explosions) 28 November 1986. 5/P. Development and Application of a Risk Assessment Tool (RISKAT) in the Health and Safety Executive. N W Hurst, C Nussey and R P Pape. Chem. Eng. Res. Des., Vol. 67, July 1989. 1/T. Quantified Risk Assessment: HSE's Risk Assessment Tool, RISKAT. Main and Background Papers As Presented at Workshop on the Major Accident Hazards in London, 8 - 10th December 1987. 4/O. Risk Assessment for Installations Where Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is Stored in Bulk Vessels Above Ground. Paper Presented at International Specialist Meeting on Major Hazards in the Transport and Storage of Pressurised Liquefied Gases, New Brunswick, 10 - 13 August 1987. 6/G. Risk Assessment for the Siting of Developments Near Liquefied Petroleum Gas Installations. Paper Presented at Symposium on Preventing Major Chemical and Related Process Accidents, London, 10 - 12 May 1988. 6/H. HSE Technical Information Leaflet - Hazard Analysis 3, Risk Assessment Tool: RISKAT. 1989. 3/T. RLSD Minute - Development of RISKAT, N W Hurst, 7/9/89. 4/P.

RLSD Section Papers:

IR/L/HA/87/9 - Calculation of Probit Relations for Explosion Damage. Issued August 1987. 5/Q. IR/L/HA/89/1 - Development of RISKAT for LPG Part I. Whole Tank Failures, Calculation of Overpressure and Radiation. Issued January 1989. 5/R. Page 19

chp_06a.lwp - 09/08/1998 IR/L/HA/89/2 - Development of RISKAT for LPG Part II. Vessel Holes and Pipework Failures. Issued January 1989. 5/S. IR/L/HA/89/3 - Development of RISKAT for LPG Part III. Calculation of Individual Risk. Issued January 1989. 5/T. IR/L/SI/90/6 - RISKAT User Interface - Input File Creation USER MANUAL. Issued April 1990. 4/Y. IR/L/HA/90/6 - Development of a PC Computer-based Version of RISKAT for LPG Risk Assessment. Issued October 1990. 5/O. IR/L/HA/90/7 - A Contour Program for RISKAT. Issued October 1990. 4/Z. IR/L/SI/90/12 - RISKAT User Interface - Input File Creation REVISED USER MANUAL. Issued November 1990. 5/B. IR/L/HA/90/16 - RISKGRAF: a Program for Plotting Individual and Societal Risk from Toxic and Flammable RISKAT Output: A User Guide. Issued October 1990. 5/E. IR/L/HA/91/4 - A Literature Review of Generic Failure Rates and a Comparison with the Failure Rates Used in RISKAT. Issued December 1991. 4/B. IR/L/HA/91/12 - RISKAT User Interface - Input File Creation USER MANUAL Revised for Version 1.6. Issued November 1991. 5/I. IR/L/HA/91/13 - RISKAT User Interface - Handling the Results USER MANUAL Revised for Version 1.6. Issued November 1991. 5/J. IR/L/HA/92/12 - Quantified Risk Assessment for Liquefied Gas Installations. Issued November 1992. 4/E.

HSL Section Papers:

IR/L/RAM/94/10 - A User's Guide to PC RISKAT 2.0. Issued December 1994. 5/U. IR/L/RAM/96/01 - Report on Feasibility Study to Assess Flammable RISKAT Code. Issued January 1996. 4/S.

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Figure 6A.1 - Tasks Performed during a Typical Flammable RISKAT Assessment

1. CREATE/EDIT INPUT FILE USING THE USER INTERFACE

2. PERFORM RISK CALCULATIONS

3. PERFORM CALCULATIONS TO GENERATE RISK CONTOURS

4. VIEW/PRINT OUTPUT USING THE USER INTERFACE

5. VIEW/PRINT OUTPUT USING THE UTILITY PROGRAMS IF REQUIRED

Tasks 2 and 3 are performed automatically under the control of the RISKAT run manager.

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Figure 6A.2 - Flammable RISKAT Programs and their Associated Datafiles

PCRISKAT (INPUT FILE EDITOR)

FILENAME.IN

FILENAME.TXF

FLP1*

REPORT

FILENAME.CCC

FILENAME.SUM

VALUES

CNNS*

RISKGRAF

FILENAME.CON

FILENAME.DD**

PCRISKAT (RISK CONTOUR VIEWER/PLOTTER)

* PROGRAM RUNS UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE RISKAT RUN MANAGER ** USED BY TOXIC RISKAT TO PRODUCE COMBINED RISK CONTOURS IF REQUIRED

PROGRAM

DATAFILE

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Document History
1st Draft 20/01/96 2nd Draft 08/02/96 1st Issue 27/02/96 1st Revision 18/11/96 2nd Revision 05/06/97 2nd Issue 25/07/97 Version 7 09/08/1998 Issued for comment to MHAU topic specialist (A P Franks). Incorporates comments of and issued to MHAU topic specialist for final comment. Incorporates final comments of and approved for issue by MHAU topic specialist. Historical background and calculations removed to PCAS Chapter 6A. Reformatted for Corporate Recall (Draft). References and Pagination updated. Bookmarked. Approval for issue under new document system agreed at UMM, July 1997. Converted to Word Pro format ready for HSE Intranet

Document Control Information

Open Government Status: Full Disclosure Review Date: 01 July 1999 Name Written by: Signature Date

Owned by:

Checked by:

Neil Morton

Authorised by:

Keith Cassidy

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