April 20, 2012

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from ValuEngine.com. In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com!

MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

started week
12850.88 3027.57 796.29 1370.27

Thursday Close
12964.1 3007.56 798.9 1376.92

4 day change
113.22 -20.01 2.61 6.65

4 day change %
0.88% -0.66% 0.33% 0.49%

ytd
6.11% 15.45% 7.83% 9.49%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 62.71% 37.29% 26.33% 14.09%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
-0.74% -1.15% -0.76% -0.08% -0.23% -0.50% -0.78% -0.52% -0.26% -0.49% 0.03% -0.90% 0.10% -0.44% -0.94% -0.87%

MTD
-2.89% -8.00% -6.22% -3.58% -3.12% -4.84% -3.14% -3.79% -2.56% -2.52% -3.09% -2.25% -5.72% -1.87% -2.89% -4.28%

YTD
4.08% 10.36% 2.09% 6.70% 13.42% 14.20% 14.95% 6.61% 12.21% 8.68% 11.15% 12.34% -1.90% 12.26% 9.57% -0.23%

Valuation
12.58% undervalued 9.17% undervalued 7.80% undervalued 3.83% undervalued 11.77% overvalued 5.28% undervalued 1.69% overvalued 7.50% overvalued 9.07% overvalued 7.49% overvalued 12.35% overvalued 4.56% overvalued 7.00% undervalued 12.32% overvalued 4.87% overvalued 2.22% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
-5.89% -9.64% -29.44% 0.85% -10.33% -12.77% -0.76% -8.32% -2.04% -10.53% -12.84% -4.71% -25.89% 8.58% -16.93% -5.71%

P/E Ratio
15.34 17.16 21.07 27.27 40.38 35.82 27.65 24.88 23.31 24.35 44.16 16.79 27.75 22.91 16.74 26.43

Sector TalkBasic Materials

Below, we present the latest data on leading Basic Materials Sector Stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
YONG JAG MT AU KGC

Name
YONGYE INTL INC JAGUAR MINING ARCELOR MITTAL ANGLOGOLD LTD KINROSS GOLD

Mkt Price
3.25 3.07 16.95 33.33 9.15

Valuation(%)
N/A -60.52 -50.7 -32.57 -52.64

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-39.02 -43.77 -49.82 -31.19 -39.28

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
YONG VALE NSU ABX AU

Name
YONGYE INTL INC VALE SA NEVSUN RESOURCS BARRICK GOLD CP ANGLOGOLD LTD

Mkt Price
3.25 22.96 3.44 40.95 33.33

Valuation(%)
N/A -16.82 -21.99 -19.55 -32.57

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-39.02 -26.46 -46.25 -23.64 -31.19

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
CE ROC LYB AUY CXDC

Name
CELANESE CP-A ROCKWOOD HLDGS LYONDELLBASEL-A YAMANA GOLD INC CHINA XD PLASTC

Mkt Price
48.12 49.16 44.09 14.29 5.06

Valuation(%)
-21.42 -22.68 1.8 -15.74 -19.57

Last 12-M Retn(%)

5.64 3.04 27.17 11.9 11.21

Top-Five Basic Materials Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
EXK CHMT FBR IPHS TPCG

Name
ENDEAVOUR SILVR CHEMTURA CORP FIBRIA CELULOSE INNOPHOS HLDGS TPC GROUP INC

Mkt Price
8.64 17.36 8.18 49.16 43.89

Valuation(%)
300 283.57 104.19 53.1 40.28

Last 12-M Retn(%)

-26.09 5.34 -45.32 14.41 19.1

Free Report Download for Subscribers*

*NOTE: FREE DOWNLOAD LINK IS FIXED As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are now offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Reports.
This week's free download is our report on McDonald's (MCD). McDonalds Corporation franchises and operates McDonalds restaurants in the global restaurant industry. These restaurants serve a menu at various price points providing value in 119 countries globally. As of December 31, 2011, of the 33,510 restaurants in 119 countries 27,075 were franchised or licensed (including 19,527 franchised to conventional franchisees, 3,929 licensed to developmental licensees and 3,619 licensed to foreign affiliates (affiliates)-primarily Japan) and 6,435 were operated by the Company. McDonalds menu includes hamburgers and cheeseburgers, Big Mac, Quarter Pounder with Cheese, Filet-O-Fish, several chicken sandwiches, Chicken McNuggets, Snack Wraps, French fries, salads, oatmeal, shakes, McFlurry desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, pies, soft drinks, coffee, McCafe beverages and other beverages.

Weekly Subscribers can download a FREE Detailed Valuation Report on McDonald's HERE If you have not subscribed and want to be able to receive a FREE $ 25.00 Detailed Valuation Report, you can subscribe to our Free Weekly Newsletter HERE.

What's HotVALUATION CHECK

The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 8000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges. The model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for each equity based on what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. In the chart below, you can see that our Valuation Model no longer rates stocks as highly undervalued, but that those red bars showing overvaluation rising have receded off the chart. Thus, as the market has paused to consolidate, we find that stocks are getting cheaper relative to a few weeks ago.

Whenever we see levels in overvaluation levels in excess of @ 60% for the overall universe, we issue a valuation watch. This is a time for investors to keep a close eye and the market and to consider booking some profits and perhaps hedging against a move to the downside. But right now things seem pretty "normal," and the trend is back toward undervalued. Below, we show a chart which covers the past 13 months.

We had several timely overvaluation watches and warnings in 2011. Note how the peaks of the red bars correspond with market peaks. May was a particularly prescient warning as we saw the markets go into a Summer swoon soon after we

issued an alert. The model adjusts to the underlying earnings figures and the interest rate environment so, despite the fact that the market is now higher than it was a year ago, overvaluation is not approaching critical levels. And here is the longer-term chart tracking undervaluation back to March, 2010. Again we see that despite higher market levels, we don't find an overvalued condition. As far as the model is concerned--at current earnings levels and interest rates--stocks are not dangerously overvalued.

We will continue to watch and track our valuation metrics so that we may add to our data set. Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. HURRY! FOR A LIMTED TIME WE ARE OFFERING A 30 DAY FREE TRIAL

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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.965) Weekly and annual value levels are 2.192 and 2.502 with a daily pivot at 1.946, and semiannual, quarterly and monthly risky levels at 1.903, 1.407 and 1.306. The 50-day and 200day simple moving averages are 2.083 and 2.116. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold--($1643.0) My annual value level is $1575.8 with weekly and semiannual pivots at $1639.8, $1635.8, $1659.4, and daily, monthly and quarterly risky levels at $1664.0, $1763.7 and $1871.9. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are $1688.9 and $1694.7. The 50-day is below the 200-day for the first time since February 12, 2009. This is a Death Cross. Nymex Crude--($102.51) Monthly and semiannual value levels are $97.55 and $79.83 with daily, quarterly, annual and semiannual pivots at $103.36, $101.55, $103.58 and $104.84, and weekly and annual risky levels at $107.61 and $117.00. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are $104.67 and $95.96. The Euro--(1.3134) Semiannual, weekly and monthly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2873 and 1.2529 with a daily pivot at 1.3135, and quarterly, annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3366, 1.4239 and 1.4405. The 50-day simple moving average is 1.3202. Major Indices Daily Dow: (12,964) Quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are 12,794, 12,469 and 12,312 with daily and weekly pivots at 12,927 and 13,088, and annual risky level at 14,032. The 50-day simple moving average is 13,009. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at 12,964 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative from neutral.

S&P 500 (1376.9) Daily, annual, quarterly and monthly value levels are 1369.9, 1363.2, 1337.7, and 1286.2 with weekly and annual risky levels at 1406.5 and 1562.9. The 50-day simple moving average is 1378.9. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at 1375.7 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative from neutral. NASDAQ (3008) Daily, quarterly, monthly and annual value levels are 2987, 2911, 2770 and 2698 with weekly and annual risky levels at 3103 and 3232. The 50-day simple moving average is 3011. A weekly close below the fiveweek modified moving average at 3003 shifts the weekly chart profile to neutral from positive. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2687) Daily, quarterly, annual, monthly and annual value levels are 2666, 2608, 2603, 2507 and 2300 with weekly risky level at 2805. The 50-day simple moving average is 2672. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at 2670 shifts the weekly chart profile to neutral from positive. Dow Transports (5229) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4748 and 4407 with daily and weekly pivots at 5242 and 5196, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 5420 and 5861. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. The 50-day simple moving average is 5226. The weekly chart stays negative on a weekly close below its five-week modified moving average at 5228. Russell 2000 (798.90) My monthly value level is 726.19 with daily and weekly pivot at 795.53 and 804.11, and quarterly and annual risky levels at 829.34 and 836.15. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011. The 50-day simple moving average is 818.92. The weekly chart stays negative on a weekly close below its five-week modified moving average at 812.71. The SOX (415.03) My monthly value level is 397.34 with daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at 417.62, 419.69 and 416.01, and annual risky level at 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011. The 50-day simple moving average is 426.04. The weekly chart stays negative on a weekly close below its five-week modified moving average at 423.15.

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We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web. Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE Intelligent Investing with Richard Suttmeier Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Newsletters, Articles and Other Research Pieces Articles by Richard Suttmeier | Articles by Steve Hach Get short, timely messages from ValuEngine Inc Daily Bulletin PDFs, Weekly Newsletter PDFs, and PDF Research Reports