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Alex DeRue PLSC 309 Data Essay 1 3/26/2012 PART I Statistical Significance: Suggested Causal Relationship 1: GDP in the 70s effects the # of coups in the 80s -----------------------------------------------------------------------------coups80s | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------gdp70s | -.0002134 .0002089 -1.02 0.313 -.000635 .0002081 _cons | 3.144844 .733104 4.29 0.000 1.66538 4.624308 Number of obs = 44

The Effect of GDP on the Stability of African Nations

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The regression table reports a relationship of: = -.0002134x+3.145 Or for every 1 dollar increase of a countrys GPD in the 70s they will have .0002 less coups. The data however suggests that this relationship between the earlier decades GDP and the likelihood of a country experiencing a coup in the next decade may have just come about by the chance, based on the 95% Confidence Interval of the slope. Ranging from -.000635 to .0002081, the slope interval contains a zero, suggesting the potential for no relationship or a flat slope in which the dependent variable is not effected by the independent. One cannot be 95% confident that there is a relationship between these two variables.

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The slope coefficient of the relationship is noticeably small, seemingly ignorable already suggestive of a minimal relationship, but again one has to take into account its accounting for every 1 dollar change in GDP in 70s. Were one to replace that with every 1000 dollar change, the coefficient would become -.2134, or a decrease in .2134 coups for every 1000 dollar increase, and a decrease in 2.134 coups with a 10,000 dollar increase. The intercept coefficient represents the average number of coups that would occur in countries that have a GDP of 0, however this is simply a mathematical calculation for the sake of the relationship, not something that could be witnessed in in the data/reality as country with a GDP of 0 is not really a country. There is a striking number of similar negative residuals displayed in rather a number of nations below the calculated relationship all with number of Coups in the 80s despite their lower GDPs. These residuals suggestive of another factor influencing certain countries leading to average grouping. the graph or a relatively low might be this this sub

Suggested Causal Relationship 2: # of Coups in the 70s effects the GDP in the 80s -----------------------------------------------------------------------------gdp80s | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------coups70s | -271.2587 124.0853 -2.19 0.034 -521.6729 -20.84447 _cons | 3346.245 402.9516 8.30 0.000 2533.056 4159.434 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number of obs = 44

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The regression table reports a relationship of: = -271.26x+3346.25 Or for every 1 coup in a country in the 70s the countrys GDP in the coming decade will decrease by 271.26 dollars.

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Unlike the previous causal relationship, the existence of a relationship between the number of coups experienced by a country in the previous decade effecting its GDP in the coming, is implied by the data. The 95% Confidence Interval ranges from -521.67 to -20.84, not containing zero suggesting one can be 95% confident that there is a relationship between these two variables. The slope coefficient of the relationship might still seem small, a difference in 271 dollars relative to the cost of a coup and the damage in its wake. However one must keep in mind that GDP is a measure of the average income of each citizen per year, and given the size of these economies in new autonomy that change in GDP is rather noticeable, a single coup leading to a noticeable decrease in national income, and by proxy standard of living for most. The intercept coefficient is the average GDP of the African Countries in 80, which experienced no coups in 70s, which unlike the intercept coefficient of the previous relationship actually was exhibited in the data. The only pattern presented in the residuals of this is once more a negative one, suggesting the coefficient for the intercept might be excessively high, and consequently the coefficient of the slope may be more negative, both of which are to account for the outlying nations with high GDP and large positive residuals. Causal Significance: Of the two models presented, the data more thoroughly supports the relationship that the number of coups in a nation in the 70s effects the GDP of that nation in the 80s. The data backs this with a 95% confidence interval which does not contain 0, stating with 95% accuracy there is a relationship between these two variables. The other model is not supported by the data. The 0 in the confidence interval states that one cannot report a relationship in which the GDP of a nation in the 70s effects the number of coups in the 80s, with 95% confidence or accuracy. Another causal model as of yet unconsidered which I thought might be explain the data was one of differences: The difference in average GDP between the 80s and 70s effects the difference in the number of coups between the 80s and 70s. This suggested model was based on the theory that a people adapt to their level of GDP or by proxy their absolute standard of living and that changes relative to that absolute bring about revolutions and coups. As such a nation in which GDP has fallen from 70s to 80s will note a rise or positive change in the number of coups, from the 70s to the 80s, and one in which the GDP rises between the decades will experience a drop or negative change in the number of coups. I observed this relationship in stata by creating two new variables: gdpdiff =gdp80sgdp70s and coupdiff =coups80s- coups70s and then formed a regression table: -----------------------------------------------------------------------------coupdiff | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------gdpdiff | -.0006799 .0003717 -1.83 0.074 -.0014301 .0000702 _cons | .691396 .3213477 2.15 0.037 .0428901 1.339902 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number of obs = 44 When regressed however this relationship was not prove to exist with 95% confidence. The circular logic of low GDP causing Coups and Coups causing low GDP likewise suggests a sister relationship in which the difference in number of coups experienced

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by a nation in the 80s as opposed to the earlier decade will effect the difference in GDP between the two decades: -----------------------------------------------------------------------------gdpdiff | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------coupdiff | -108.5317 59.32965 -1.83 0.074 -228.2638 11.20036 _cons | 180.9614 132.3633 1.37 0.179 -86.15845 448.0813 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number of obs = 44 Likewise this relationship could not be proven 95% confident. Based on the datas support it would appear the model that the number of coups in a nation in the 70s effects the GDP of that nation in the 80s is the most plausible of the four. Substantive Significance: The effects of the relationship between the number of coups in a nation in the 70s and the GDP of that nation in the 80s are large enough to have an impact on the world and are a matter of importance. = -271.26x+3346.25 The relationship states that the average of real worker GDP in 80s among all the observed African nations that had not experienced a coup in the decade prior, was $3346.25. However for each coup experienced by a country in the 70s however, that country can expect on average a decrease in the real workers GDP of $271.26 or an 8.1% decrease in GDP with each coup. Relative to economic titans in the Europe, North America, and Asia this might not seem as noticeable a change in real worker GDP, but considering that collectively it still constitutes 8% of the nations GDP being lost and the people do suffer for it. In a similar vein GDP growth is exponential, and consequently this 8% loss further impedes GDP growth, potentially leading to another coup. Despite the significance of these findings and their negative effects its difficult to explicitly draw a normative statement out of them and the data. Certainly one can reasonably state that coups are bad for the stability and economic growth or a nation and that leaders should do everything in their power to prevent them based off this single relationship. However when one looks at all four causal models born from the same data set of similar variables or combinations of those variables, the fact that only one was proven with 95% confidence is surprising. Certainly they are close to 95% (the graphs visually exaggerate this do the difference in scales comparing #ofcoups ranging from 0 to 12 to GDP ranging from ~650 to ~11,000) but the fact that more do not hold true challenges making a normative statement on relationship of GDP and coups. The study characterizes coups as a source of a social disorder and economic instability, effected by an in turn effecting the current level of GDP in a nation. However on a less fiscal level, a coup is a symbol of a peoples displeasure with their current government and choosing to act against it. Certainly in some cases the motivations of rebels are motivated by personal greed, old tribal rivalries, and generally less just motives, but to say all are would be a hasty generalization. Were the data to separate attempted coups from successful coups, successful coups having parameters such as having established a new regime and being the last coup for x many years (important in countries with many coups per decade). One would be able to separate successes and attempts and see that attempts will fit the characterization as sources of social and economic instability, and be normatively bad for a nation and would likely support more of the causal relationships (this theory has less effect of 70s GDP on 80s coup# than the other three relationships).

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Likewise the successful coups, will be a split between nations that continue infighting and those that actually succeed in establishing a new effective government. The latter half of the successful, embody coups that are normatively good for a nation and after a decade should show a growth in GDP (the first few years expectedly might show a loss still). And these successes would help to account for the initial lack of support for the 3 causal models that could not be proved 95% confident as they would have run counter to the generally observed relationship, and pushed the range of the interval further positive. PART II In considering the historians theory as a possible causal mechanism, I added the variable BritColony first to my successful regression to see if whether or not a country was once a British colony effects the relation between coups in the 70s and GDP in the 80s: -----------------------------------------------------------------------------gdp80s | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------coups70s | -263.9725 125.0634 -2.11 0.041 -516.5432 -11.40181 BritColony | 510.0302 666.0847 0.77 0.448 -835.1551 1855.216 _cons | 3134.947 490.0339 6.40 0.000 2145.304 4124.591 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number of obs = 44 Where x is the number of coups in the 70s (British Colony) = -263.97x+(510.03(1))+3134.95) (Non-British Colony) = -263.97x+(510.03(0)+3134.95) = -263.97x+3134.95

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So far the historians suggestion of the influence of colonial powers and my targeting of former British colonies has only shown the British were slightly better than the collective average of setting up their former colonies to be independent states, their worker GDP on average being $510.03 more than the continental average in the 80s. When applying the British variable to other suggest causal relationship of a countrys GDP in the 70s effecting the number of coups in the 80s it produces this regression table. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------coups80s | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------gdp70s | -.0002107 .0002107 -1.00 0.323 -.0006362 .0002149 BritColony | -.5185041 .9696963 -0.53 0.596 -2.476846 1.439837 _cons | 3.337645 .8226476 4.06 0.000 1.676274 4.999015 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number of obs = 44 Producing the equations where x is the GDP in 70s: (British Colony) = -.0002107x-(.5185041(1))+3.37645) (Non-British Colony) = -.0002107x+3.37645) This regression still does not support this relationship with 95% confidence however it does suggest that former British Colonies on average experienced .5185 less coups in the 80s than the rest of the continent. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------gdp80s | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------coups70s | -277.7212 126.0646 -2.20 0.033 -532.3137 -23.12864 FrenColony | -307.0873 671.4167 -0.46 0.650 -1663.041 1048.866 _cons | 3477.524 497.8664 6.98 0.000 2472.062 4482.986 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number of obs = 44 Creation of French Colonial variable and applying it to the proven regression reveals that in former French Colonies their worker GDP on average being $307.0873 less than the continental average in the 80s. In this form the historians suggestion does not appear as a causal relationship, simply another constant. However if one samples only British colonies (or any other colonial power, Keep if BritColony ==0) one is able to see the unique relationship between the GDP of former British colonies in the 70s and the number of coups in the 80s which is statistically different from the average and by association the other colonial powers. And this relationship unlike the continental average is not proven to be 95% confident suggesting in this case GDP in the 80s may have been unaffected by coups in 70s suggesting the British more fiscally stable than the majority of the continent. As such a countrys colonial power can be a causal mechanism in this focused sample. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------gdp80s | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------coups70s | -162.8238 231.8597 -0.70 0.493 -657.0211 331.3735 _cons | 3472.429 667.7446 5.20 0.000 2049.166 4895.693 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------Number of obs = 17