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C7110518
Annotated Bibliography
C7110518
P. Smith, D. S. Powlson, J. U. Smith, P. Falloon, K. Coleman (2000). Meeting Europe's climate change commitments: quantitative estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture. Global Change Biology 6 (5): 525-539. Summary: Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO2 emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (20082012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land-use/land-management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation, deforestation, and the improved management of agricultural soils. This paper estimates the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land-management strategies and examines the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land-use/land-management. Assessing the source: The paper shows that no single land-management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land-management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land-management scenarios, it shows that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. It was concluded that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long-term land-use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. The researchers suggested that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs to be significantly enhanced before the beginning of the first Kyoto commitment period in 2008. Reflection: It is not expected that Europe will attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land-use. A reduction in CO2-carbon emissions will be key to meeting Europe's Kyoto targets, and forestry activities will play a major role. In this study, however, it had been demonstrated that the considerable potential of changes in agricultural landuse and -management for carbon mitigation and highlight the policies needed to promote these
Annotated Bibliography
C7110518
agricultural activities. As all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting Europe's climate change commitments, agricultural carbon mitigation options should be taken very seriously. The article serves as a good source of information regarding the practices in Europe regarding to climate change. The argument of the researcher about the effective usage of land for carbon mitigation and the role of policies in achieving that has been highlighted. The paper though has certain limitations in the scope of the study and the impact of other scenarios in climate change process. The paper will serve as a good and credible source towards looking at the specific policies that exists for climate change in the European Union.
W. N. Adger, S. Huq, K. Brown, D. Conway, M. Hulme (2003). Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies 3 (3): 179-195. Abstract: The worlds climate is changing and will continue to change into the coming century at rates projected to be unprecedented in recent human history. The risks associated with these changes are real but highly uncertain. Societal vulnerability to the risks associated with climate change may exacerbate ongoing social and economic challenges, particularly for those parts of societies dependent on resources that are sensitive to changes in climate. Risks are apparent in agriculture, fisheries and many other components that constitute the livelihood of rural populations in developing countries. This paper, explores the nature of risk and vulnerability in the context of climate change and review the evidence on present-day adaptation in developing countries and on coordinated international action on future adaptation. Assessing the source: The researchers argue that all societies are fundamentally adaptive and there are many situations in the past where societies have adapted to changes in climate and to similar risks. But some sectors are more sensitive and some groups in society more vulnerable to the risks posed by climate change than others. Yet all societies need to enhance their adaptive capacity to face both present and future climate change outside their experienced coping range. The challenges of climate change for development are in the present. Observed climate change, present-day climate variability and future expectations of change are changing the course of development strategies development agencies and governments are now planning for this adaptation challenge. The primary challenge, therefore, posed at both the scale of local natural resource management and at the scale of international agreements and actions, is to promote adaptive capacity in the context of competing sustainable development objectives.
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Reflection:
C7110518
Adaptation to climate change is the adjustment of a system to moderate the impacts of climate change, to take advantages of new opportunities or to cope with the consequences. It has been argued that because of the nature of the new challenges brought about by climate change in natural resource management and other areas of governance, adaptation will inevitably be characterized both by processes of negotiated adjustments involving individuals, civil society and state, and by renegotiation of risk-bearing and sharing between them. Global managerialism dominates these policy and international institutions and discourses (Adger et al., 2001a). The ability to adapt and bring about behavior change is a fundamental barrier towards moderating the effects of climate change. Though the paper talks about the adaptive change at a multi level, the ways to achieving it was not mentioned explicitly. According to me, the recommendations are transferable across the border and serves as a credible source to further my research.
J. A. Patz, D. Campbell-Lendrum, T. Holloway, J. A. Foley (2005). Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438 (17 November): 310-317. Abstract: The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Assessing the source: Here the researchers review the growing evidence that climatehealth relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Nio/Southern Oscillation subSaharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.
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Reflection:
C7110518
There is evidence that a mounting change in the broad-scale climate system may already be affecting human health, including mortality and morbidity from extreme heat, cold, drought or storms; changes in air and water quality; and changes in the ecology of infectious diseases. The article sheds light on the wider determinants of health and the association of them to climate change. The article was particularly critical about the absence of appropriate data and information, which they feel has attributed in the revival of the effects of climate change. Although the article provides valid arguments towards this, I cannot completely agree with the reasoning that absence of appropriate data and information can lead to resurgence of effects of climate change. The article is evidence based and is a useful source of information towards my research.
Brownson, R. C., Haire-Joshu, D. and Luke, D. A. (2006). Shaping the context of health: A review of environmental and policy approaches in the prevention of chronic diseases. Annual Review of Public Health 27: 341-370. Abstract: The growing attention on how environmental and policy interventions can affect chronic disease burden, the objectives of the study were to describe (a) effective and promising interventions to address tobacco use, physical activity, and healthy eating and (b) lessons learned from the literature and practice experience in applying environmental and policy approaches. A total of 17 interventions were reviewed, organized across 3 domains affecting the physical environment/access, economic environment, and communication environment. Many of these interventions are effective. Several lessons are important to consider, such as the need to start with environmental and policy approaches, intervene comprehensively and across multiple levels, make use of economic evaluations, make better use of existing analytic tools, understand the politics and local context, address health disparities, and conduct sound policy research. Assessing the source: A total of 17 interventions were reviewed and categorised into three domains affecting the physical environment/access, economic environment and communication environment. The paper goes on to discuss tobacco use, physical activity and healthy eating in the context of these three domains. The paper talks about the key role of policy and environmental change to initiate and sustain efficient change. The authors also advocate the use of comprehensive interventions at multiple levels for better effectiveness. Also, the importance of understanding the local context and building new and non-traditional partnerships has been highlighted as an important aspect.
Annotated Bibliography
Reflection:
C7110518
In mainstream epidemiology, the most rigorous design for hypothesis testing is the randomised controlled trial. However, a randomised design is seldom useful in policy research because the scientist cannot randomly assign exposure (the policy). Therefore, quasi-experimental designs (e.g. ecologic studies and timeseries designs) are likely to be more useful for many policyrelevant issues. Policy research can still be sophisticated in the absence of randomised designs. Also, there should be modifications towards the built environment and support for interdisciplinary collaborations. The paper though doesnot talk much about the socio-ecological aspect of good health behavior, like healthy eating and community connections, which can be seen as a drawback. The evidence presented is strong which brings the paper as a strong source of information for research.
Brooks, N., Adger, W.N. and P.M. Kelly. (2005). The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change. 15(2): 155-163. Abstract: The researchers present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically dened climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key ulnerability indicators. The article says that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus groupexercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conict. Adaptive capacityone element of vulnerabilityis associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy.
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Assessing the resource:
C7110518
Brooks et al. completed this study to determine national-level indicators of vulnerability and the capacity to adapt to climate hazards. Through the identification of countries and areas that are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, the authors intend to enliven debate on factors that lead to greater vulnerability. Vulnerability to climate risk is assessed through mortality rates and other socioeconomic, political, and environmental variables. The authors find 11 key indicators, such as access to sanitation, literacy rates, calorific intake, etc., that correlated to decadal mortality at the 10% significance level. Moreover, the authors argue, the most vulnerable nations are in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity is found to be most influenced by governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. Reflection: This paper has presented a novel methodology for assessing vulnerability to climate-related mortality, based on empirical analysis rather than subjective identication of indicators, and which addresses the sensitivity of vulnerability assessments to different sets of subjective weightings. The approach mentioned provides a rmer foundation for the identication of highly vulnerable countries than a simple equating of vulnerability with poverty, and offers a robust methodology for the assessment of vulnerability that is not based on a single, subjective index. The evidence presented though has a large level of uncertainty with the effects of climate change. The paper though has made some interesting findings, which can be used towards my research.