Aligning Education and the Economy

Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission

richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105

Talent Development Premises:

1. Are employers a primary customer of the

education system? If yes, are we listening? 2. Do students expect their credentials to improve their job possibilities? 3. Do jobseekers need continuous skill upgrades to meet an evolving workplace? 4. Is college ready and career ready really the same thing? If not, what are we doing to align education with labor market demand?

Harry Truman is purported to have said,

All my economists say, on the one, or on the other handwhat I really need is a onehanded economist.

Is it a recovery or an expansion? Is the difference economic or a crisis in confidence?

Is the Economic Glass Half Full? or Half Empty?

Unemployment rate falling More sectors contribute to job growth Corporations cash-rich 31 months of job growth Spending is up, consumers lowering debt burden Consumer confidence is improving House prices near bottom? UI initial claims are down Real estate, construction and govt. still reeling European debt/bank crisis still looming Slowing global GDP? Energy/gas prices? Lack of confidence in demand, political system Still tight lending standards & terms Net worth down$9.4 tril from peak

The world is very messy

Where Texans Live

Where Texans have moved

Number of People
82 - 9,999 10,000 - 24,999 25,000 - 99,999 100,000 - 999,999 1,000,000 - 4,092,459

Percent Change
-21% - -10.1% -10% - -0.1% 0% - 24.9% 25% - 54.9% 55% - 81.8%

Texas becomes more Hispanic

Texas Total Nonagricultural Employment

(Statewide, Seasonally Adjusted)
10,800,000 10,600,000 10,400,000 10,200,000 10,000,000 9,800,000 9,600,000 9,400,000 9,200,000

Texas 2000-2011 3rd Quarter Wages

$14,000
$12,109.50

$12,000
$9,976.72

$11,043.50

$10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0

$8,543.28

$8,807.83

$8,680.90

$9,329.72 $9,017.34

$10,732.22 $10,222.32

$11,391.83 $10,978.37

Actual Job Growth Rates

Big 8 Texas metro areas 3rd Quarter to 3rd Quarter
Metro area
Austin-Round Rock

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

+3.9% +4.9% +1.7% -3.5% +2.2% +3.9%

Beaumont-Port Arthur +3.3% +2.7% +0.9% -5.6% +1.3% +2.2%

Corpus Christi
Dallas-Fort Worth El Paso Houston-Sugar LandBaytown McAllen-Edinburg San Antonio

+2.0% +1.9% +2.6% -3.6% +0.8% +1.1%

+3.6% +2.7% +1.4% -4.9% +0.7% +2.6% +1.3% +1.6% +1.7% -2.1% +1.9% +1.6% +4.0% +4.4% +2.1% -3.5% +0.8% +2.8% +3.5% +4.9% +1.9% -0.8% +0.9% +2.8% +4.6% +2.9% +1.2% -2.3% +1.2% +2.2%

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Texas Workforce Commission

Texas Goodsproducing Industries 1995-2012

180 170
160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Manufacturing Total Nonagricultural Construction Mining

Texas Industry Growth February 2011-12 YOY

Industry Total Nonagricultural Total Nongovernment** Goods-Producing Service-Providing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Professional and Business Services Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Mining and Logging Manufacturing Other Services Financial Activities Construction Information Government Feb 2012 ABS CHG PER CHG 10,738,800 273,900 2.6% 8,955,400 331,800 3.8% 1,674,800 69,100 4.3% 9,064,000 204,800 2.3% 2,151,600 68,300 3.3% 1,372,100 57,700 4.4% 1,078,400 54,100 5.3% 1,453,700 49,500 3.5% 259,800 36,600 16.4% 847,300 24,400 3.0% 381,400 18,900 5.2% 650,300 16,000 2.5% 567,700 8,100 1.4% 193,100 -1,800 -0.9% 1,783,400 -57,900 -3.1%

Texas Industry Sectors with Greatest Job Growth July 2010-July 2011
Texas Industry Sector 1. Business & Financial Services 2. Education, Training & Development 3. Biotech, Life Sciences & Medical 4. Tourism, Hospitality & Leisure

2ndQTR ABS PER 2011 CHG CHG 1,501,552 68,725 4.80%

1,251,185 38,115 3.14% 769,719 34,378 4.68% 1,103,921 32,595 3.04%

5. Personal and Residential Services

6. Energy, Mining, & Related Services 7. Distribution, Transport & Logistics 8. Legal, Protective & Human Services 9. Industrial Machinery & Production

576,084 27,849 5.08%

253,303 24,301 10.61% 454,394 14,430 3.28% 317,495 13,281 4.37% 353,132 11,777 3.45%

Texas Industry Sectors with Lesser Job Growth July 2010-July 2011
Texas Industry Sector 18. Heavy & Special Trade Construction 17. Apparel, Leather, Non-durable Mfg 16. Petroleum Refining & Chemicals 15. Telecom & Information Services 14. Agriculture, Forestry Fishing

2ndQTR ABS PER 2011 CHG CHG 562,668 -53,759 -8.72%

105,193 -6,023 -5.42% 220,804 -3,072 -1.37% 345,181 213,763 -998 -0.29% -14 -0.01%

13. Govt. ex. Education & Corporate HQ

12. Electronics & Applied Computer Equip 11. General Line Retail Stores

809,204
254,536 839,785

2,395 0.30%
3,340 1.33% 6,421 0.77%

10. Transportation Equipment

327,651

9,882 3.11%

Employment in New vs. Failed Texas Firms

200,000 150,000

Employment

100,000

50,000

0 Infant Firm minus Deceased Firm Employment Deceased Firm Employment Infant Firm Employment

-50,000

Employees Per New Startup Firm in Texas

4.0

3.9
3.8
Average Number of Workers

3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0

Employees Per Startup Firm (Moving 4 Quarter Average)

Fastest Growing Texas Occupations 2018 - Projected

Growth Occupations
1. Biomedical Engineers 2. Home Health Aides 3. Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts 4. Petroleum Engineers 5. Athletic Trainers 6. Personal & Home Care Aides 7. Electrical & Electronics Repairers, Powerhouse, Substation & Relay 8. Financial Examiners 9. Medical Scientists

2009 Education preferred Salary

Bachelor's degree Short-term OJT Bachelor's degree $66,729 $18,849 $76,420

Bachelor's degree $126,241 Bachelor's degree $45,873 Short-term OJT Postsecondary vocational training Bachelor's degree Doctoral degree $16,211 $55,250 $76,359 $64,386

10. Special Education Teachers

Bachelor's degree

$49,856

Growth Occupations (most jobs) for Texas for 2008-2018

Type of Job 1. Fast Food Prep Worker
2. Elementary School Teacher 3. Retail Salesperson 4. Registered Nurse 5. Home Health Aide 6. Customer Service Rep 7. Waitress/Waiter 9. Office Clerk 10. Cashier
Annual Decade Openings Growth Rate

Required education/training Short-term On Job Training Bachelors degree

7,845 6,110 5,430 5,365 5,105 5,005 4,530 3,960 3,690

42% 39% 15% 32% 55% 23% 24% 47% 17% 13%

Moderate On Job Training Associates degree Short-term On Job Training

Moderate On Job Training Short-term On Job Training Short-term On Job Training Short-term On Job Training Short-term On Job Training Bachelors degree Moderate On Job Training

8. Personal & Home Care Aide 4,400

11. Secondary School Teacher 12. Construction Worker

3,105 3,090

31% 22%

Expected Growth Occupations in STEM in

Texas 2008-2018
Pay Range
$48,000 - $75,000 $40,000 - $82,000 $50,000 - $97,000 $31,000 - $62,000 $62,000 - $113,000 $45,000 - $97,000 $63,000 - $138,000 $44,000 - $82,000 $53,000 - $107,000 $23,000 - $34,000 $53,000 - $109,000 $47,000 - $96,000 $90,000 - $122,000

Type of Job
1. Registered Nurse 2. Accountant/Auditor 3. Computer Systems Analyst 4. Computer Support Specialist 5. Software Engineer 6. Computer Programmer 7. Financial Manager 8. Computer Network Admin 9. Civil Engineer 10. Pharmacy Technician 11. Medical Manager 12. Financial Analyst 13. Pharmacist

Minimum Required
Associates degree Bachelors degree Bachelors degree Associates degree Bachelors degree Bachelors degree Bachelors degree Bachelors degree Bachelors degree Moderate training Masters degree Bachelors degree Masters degree

Job Market for Achieve Texas Clusters (HWOL size)

80,000 70,000 Annual Average Openings 60,000 50,000 40,000
Education & Training Health Science Arch & Con Finance & Insurance Human Services Ag. & Nat Resources Manufacturing Scientific Research & Eng. Law & Public Safety Transport, Distrib. & Logistics Hospitality & Tourism

Marketing, Sales & Service

30,000
20,000 10,000 0
Arts, AV Tech & Comm

Govt & Public Admin

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

Percent Growth thru 2018

Where The Job Postings Are Located?

Metro Area Dallas-Fort Worth Houston-Sugar Land San Antonio Austin-Round Rock El Paso Corpus Christi Killeen-Temple McAllen-Edinburg Tyler Lubbock
Postings

166,078
129,406 55,978 53,225 12,264

9,831
7,885 7,053 6,626 6,559

Metro Area Odessa Waco Beaumont Midland Amarillo College Station Longview Abilene Brownsville Laredo

Postings

5,301
5,280 5,274 4,835 4,742

4,519
3,796 3,776 3,503 2,877

D/FW Job Posting Activity: The Conference Board HWOL

No. Unemployed No. of Job Ads

300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000

100,000

40,000

Unemployment
50,000 0

HWOL
20,000 0

Texas HWOL Job Postings Last 90 Days April 2012

Occupational Title
1. Registered Nurse 2. Truck Driver (heavy/tractor trailer) 3. Retail Salesperson 4. Computer Systems Analyst 5. Manager of Retail Workers 6. Customer Service Representative 7. Web Developer 8. Computer Support Specialist
Postings Preferred education

30,836 18,497 15,803 15,574 12,674 12,598 11,776 9,825 9,627

Associates/Bachelors Short term OJT Short term OJT Bachelors degree Moderate OJT Associates degree

14,919 Related Work Experience

Associates degree
Bachelors degree

9. Manager of Food Prep Workers

10. Accountant 11. Non-technical Sales Rep, WH & Man

10,721 Related Work Experience

Related Work Experience

Bachelors degree Moderate OJT

12. Network/Computer Systems Admin

13. Secretary/Admin Assistant

9,613
9,510

D/FW Job Postings Last 90 Days April 2012

Total, All Jobs 187,928 CHG Last YR +17,555 Registered Nurses Computer Systems Analysts Web Developers Retail Salespersons Supervisors, Retail Sales Workers Network/Computer Systems Administrators Computer Support Specialists Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Customer Service Representatives Accountants Exec. Secretaries/Admin Assts. Supervisors, Food Prep Workers Computer Software Engineers, Applications Sales Reps, WH & Man Supervisors, Office & Admin Support Postings CHG 10,052 80 6,396 449 5,302 471 4,225 427 3,638 701 3,319 943 3,893 306 3,060 1098 3,929 115 3,230 537 2,823 334 1,804 1309 2,902 167 2,728 235 2,476 390

Education Mismatch: Texas Unemployed vs. Job Postings Education Requirement

Doctoral Degree Professional Degree

2011 WIT Job Applicants

0.6% 0.3% 3.4% 8.5% 2.0%

HWOL 2011 Postings

.8% 1.6%

47%

Masters Degree
Bachelors + Work Experience Bachelors Degree Associates Degree

0.9%

3.6%
7.8% 22.7% 10.0%

Post-secondary Vocational

4.0%

9.3%
9.2% 4.4% 15.4% 15.3%

84%

Job related work experience Long-term On The Job training Medium-term On The Job training Short-term On The Job training
Source: Help Wanted On Line listings for Texas and Texas Workforce Commission

5.4% 6.2% 22.4% 46.3%

listings for Work In Texas database

Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Summary

Bachelors Degree Graduate Major (TX) Engineering Health Professions & Related Clinical Sciences Engineering Technologies/Technicians Computer & Information Sciences Business, Management & Marketing Mathematics and Statistics Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies Physical Sciences Liberal Arts & Sciences/Humanities Teacher Education & Development /Special Ed Agriculture & Agriculture Operations Unknown or Undeclared Public Administration & Social Service Security & Protective Services Social Sciences Grads Earnings 4,554 $51,131 7,644 $50,813 951 $46,075 1,356 $44,408 21,153 $36,261 914 $33,296 10,082 $31,888 1,103 $30,828 2,359 $30,074 1,505 $29,594 1,804 $28,195 2,247 $27,812 1,174 $27,456 2,783 $27,039 6,227 $26,795

Lowest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View

Bachelors Degree Graduate Major (TX) Pastoral Counseling & Specialized Ministries Germanic Languages & Literature Film/Video and Photographic Arts Dramatic/Theatre Arts & Stagecraft Classical Languages, Literatures & Linguistics English Composition Religious Education Ecology, Evolution and Population Biology Anthropology Radio, Television & Digital Communication Health/Medical Preparatory Programs Parks & Recreation Facilities Management Bible/Biblical Studies Zoology/Animal Biology Fine and Studio Art Grads Earnings 60 $15,205 46 $17,444 142 $17,619 529 $18,304 35 $18,342 44 $19,903 56 $20,122 87 $20,156 460 $20,310 983 $20,413 93 $20,547 139 $20,558 55 $20,860 102 $21,372 1,347 $21,464

Highest Earning Associates Degree Programs 2010

Associates Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings Fire Protection 157 $68,275 Nuclear Radiologic Technology 33 $63,908 Electrical & Power Transmission Installers 41 $55,835 Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 5,203 $53,648 Mining and Petroleum Technology 24 $50,241 Physical Science Technology 457 $47,881 Electromechanical /Instrumentation Technology 397 $46,151 Quality Control & Safety Technology 133 $44,685 Chemistry 56 $44,599 Industrial Production Technology 97 $44,138 Construction Engineering Technology 45 $41,789 Mechanical Engineering Related Technology 29 $41,622 Precision Metal Working 138 $39,817 Electrical/Electronics Maintenance Technology 47 $37,500 Dental Support Services & Allied Professions 352 $37,371

Structural Mismatch: 2010 Graduates Grads Earnings

Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other Business Administration, Mgmt & Operations Psychology, General Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration Biology, General Health and Physical Education/Fitness Finance & Financial Mgmt Services Accounting & Related Services Marketing Criminal Justice and Corrections English Language and Literature, General Liberal Arts, General Studies & Humanities History, General Political Science & Government Public Relations & Advertising 9,536 6,056 5,169 4,745 4,517 3,457 3,269 3,083 2,884 2,783 2,453 2,359 2,245 2,208 1,772 $32,132 $40,473 $22,613 $59,359 $21,737 $23,454 $37,160 $33,583 $31,693 $27,039 $23,124 $30,074 $24,016 $25,037 $27,579

Trends in U.S. Bachelors Degrees Awarded

Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:

Percent of 2009 Revenue Outside U.S.
YUM Brands 53.0% Du Pont 62.4% IBM 58.1% Boeing 42.2% Intel 80.0% Coca Cola 73.5% Corning 75.6% Emerson Electric 56.8% Accenture 56.4% Microsoft 43.4%

Hewlett-Packard 63.9% Wal-Mart 36.2% JNJ 50.2% Caterpillar 61.8% Colgate 80.0% ExxonMobil 81.8% Campbell Soup 26.1% Kellogg 26.8% 3M Corporation 63.2% UPS 26.3%

Percent of Multinational Corporation Jobs Employed by U.S. Parent Company

76.0%

74.0%
72.0% 70.0% 68.0%
73.5%

72.9% 72.5%

72.3%

71.4% 71.1%

70.8%

69.3% 67.8% 66.9% 64.7%

66.0%
64.0% 62.0% 60.0%

U.S. jobs as a percent of all MNC jobs

64.0%

58.0%

Detailed Work Activities (DWA)

Show Workplace Basics BYN

Detailed Work Activities focus on occupational-specific expectations. In addition to these, employers expect all workers to have solid academic preparation and possess workplace basic skills regardless of specific job title. Workplace basic or foundation skills include personal traits and behaviors that demonstrate work ethic and commitment, leadership and teamwork skills, initiative and integrity. Click here to view a list of essential Workplace Basics that underlies any SWAP regional or occupational DWA profile.

Regional employers say they want

1. Good communications skills: Can you.. Explain what youre doing (to co-worker or customer)?
Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)? Ability to listen to instructions? determine what will probably happen next)

2. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you

3. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job
openings)

4. Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are

engaged in their work)

5. Can you work with people who are of a different age, race, gender and education level than you?

The greater the challenge, the more important that we all work together