Research

Is the Weather Getting More Extreme?

The Changing Faces of Mother Nature
Is the weather getting hotter where its hot and colder where its cold? Is the climate becoming more harsh and extreme? Are there other climatic fluctuations, such as heavier rains, flooding, snows, dust that are more dramatic than in the past, or does it just seem that way? A recent American research report predicted extreme weather changes within less than 20 years which would plunge London into Siberian weather, flood and eliminate European cities due to melting of glaciers, result in severe droughts and cause war between neighboring countries fighting over dwindling resources. Is the weather, in fact, becoming more extreme and is this research a realistic scenario? In the northeastern United States, people are talking about the coldest weather theyve had in the past 100 years. Europe and Israel have suffered through the hottest summers in memory. Europe and the Mediterranean countries have experienced tumultuous rains and flooding. Does the weather just seem more extreme when it creeps outside the range of human comfort or has it really become harsher? In fact, responds Open University meteorologist Dr. Baruch Ziv, of the Department of Natural Sciences, the weather has actually become more extreme in a variety of climatic phenomena. Different regions of the world have been afflicted differently. air conditioning emit, especially within most city parameters. But this is just one side of the coin. Extraordinary rainfall, intense storms and flooding, as well as unusually high or low temperatures, are also more frequent, warns Dr. Ziv, and these extreme occurrences may also be traced to global warming. For instance, warmer air contains more moisture which produces heavier rains. Global warming is not uniform around the globe and it causes different weather phenomena in different regions. Some regions are even cooling. specific wave in the atmosphere over Eastern Europe, causing some cooling in the Middle East, and warming in Siberia (relatively!). Dr. Zivs research, funded by the Israel Science Foundation, and in cooperation with Dr. Hadas Saaroni and Prof. Pinhas Alpert of Tel Aviv University, compared the past 27 summers in Israel with the 27 previous ones. The four hottest summers recorded in Israel in the entire 54 year period occurred within the past seven years. Overall, the hottest days in the region were hotter than in the past. On other days, which would not be regarded as extreme, temperatures were also higher than in the past. Given the ever increasing conditions of heat load near the ground, and not only in the higher atmosphere, this phenomenon is quite alarming, says Dr. Ziv. The research indicated that the situation in Israel was milder than in other regions over the Mediterranean basin, particularly in the western region, such as the French Riviera, where the warming rate was double that of Israel and flooding was also rampant.

Weather Changes in Israel and the Region

Surprisingly, Israel is one of the regions that is cooling, but only during the winter and at a very small rate. On the other hand, the average temperature in July and August in Israel increased at a rate of 1 degree centigrade over the last 50 years. Moreover, heat waves have become longer and more cumbersome. This cooling is an indirect result of the increase in greenhouse gasses, which create a

Harsh Weather
Weve all heard about global warming due to the greenhouse effect caused by the carbon dioxide that is emitted into the atmosphere in larger and larger amounts, he explains, but urban island warming further intensifies this trend. The latter is the result of the tremendous amounts of energy which cars, buildings, industry and widespread

Research
Disastrous, Apocalyptic Weather Prediction
Recently, an apocalyptic forecast in a secret report of the Pentagon described a scenario of very extreme climatic changes which would radically change the face of the globe within two decades. The startling warnings refer to rising sea levels, flooding of coastal cities, freezing of Western Europe and widespread starvation, mainly in third world countries. Dr. Ziv is not quite convinced that this is precisely what we should expect, but regards this as one of several reasonable, though extreme, scenarios related to global warming. He also stresses that the present evidence indicates that the main warming will occur in cold regions, so relief may be expected there. Dr. Ziv clarifies that even if developments are similar to those outlined, the exact timing (specified there as within 16 years) cannot actually be determined (just as earthquakes cannot be accurately predicted), so, he says, 200 years from now is equally possible, or the actual trend could be entirely different than this prediction. He explains that the rationale behind this theory is that intensive ice melting in the North Pole could flood the Atlantic Ocean with cold-fresh water, which is lighter than the existing salt water, and could block the Gulf Circulation. In the absence of this circulation, the Atlantic waters could become colder by 10 degrees centigrade, producing much colder winters over Western Europe (though not Siberian). Dr. Ziv has, for years, been involved in international collaboration projects on climate and environment, in cooperation with NASA, with the United States, with nine regional earth-observation centers outside of the United States, among them Canada, Russian, England, Japan and Australia, as well as climate observation from space. International collaboration is critical in understanding weather phenomena, which are clearly of global magnitude. International collaboration and research on the weather gives us a clear picture of developments, concludes Dr. Baruch Ziv, and it is unquestionably becoming more extreme and there is every indication that more extreme weather events are in store for us. Even if the odds are small that climatic developments will be exactly as indicated in the Pentagon research, it is important for the public and for decisionmakers to be aware of the possible consequences of global warming and that nature could, indeed, change.