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Competitiveness File
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US Competitiveness High
Titus Galama, PhD Physical Scientist at Rand Institute, and James Hosek, PhD Director of Forces and Resources
Policy Center, RAND National Security Research Division February 2008, U.S. Competitiveness In Science and
Technology, National Defense Research Institute, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG674.pdf
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U. S. Competitiveness High
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US Competitiveness High
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**Impact Extension**
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**Brink Extensions**
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Competitiveness Brink
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**Solvency Extension**
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**Uniqueness extensions**
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Policymaking Competitiveness
Titus Galama, PhD Physical Scientist at Rand Institute, and James Hosek, PhD Director of Forces and Resources
Policy Center, RAND National Security Research Division February 2008, U.S. Competitiveness In Science and
Technology, National Defense Research Institute, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG674.pdf
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US Competitiveness Low
For decades, the United States has boasted the world’s leading system of
science and technology. The domestic building blocks that formed the
bedrock of this system were sturdy and stable. Now, however, experts
are worried that they are slowly, but steadily, crumbling. “[T]he committee
is deeply concerned that the scientific and technological building
blocks critical to our economic leadership are eroding at a time when
many other nations are gathering strength,” reads the central finding of
the National Academies of Sciences (2006) report. “The call is clear,”
the President’s Council of Advisors on S&T declares, “we must protect
and enhance the U.S. innovation ecosystem that has put our Nation in
the global economic leadership position it currently enjoys. . . . Unless
we take action to maintain our global advantages . . . we run the risk of
losing our competitive advantage. . . . [T]his issue . . . is of the utmost
importance and failure is not an option.” (President’s Council of Advisors
on Science and Technology, 2004)
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**Link Extentions**
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Titus Galama, PhD Physical Scientist at Rand Institute, and James Hosek, PhD Director of Forces and Resources
Policy Center, RAND National Security Research Division February 2008, U.S. Competitiveness In Science and
Technology, National Defense Research Institute, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG674.pdf
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Titus Galama, PhD Physical Scientist at Rand Institute, and James Hosek, PhD Director of Forces and Resources
Policy Center, RAND National Security Research Division February 2008, U.S. Competitiveness In Science and
Technology, National Defense Research Institute, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG674.pdf
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Titus Galama, PhD Physical Scientist at Rand Institute, and James Hosek, PhD Director of Forces and Resources
Policy Center, RAND National Security Research Division February 2008, U.S. Competitiveness In Science and
Technology, National Defense Research Institute, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG674.pdf
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Krugman further points out that many of the boosters of national"competitiveness"seem to believe that
cutting-edge technologies are the only route to prosperity, although the evidence doesn't support this view.
For example, one popular U.S. slogan is that a competitive nation should focus on producing computer chips, not
potato chips. Actually, Krugman found, workers who make potato chips add more value on average than those who
make computer chips. One reason is that potato chips benefit from the extra profitability that goes with brand loyalty
while computer chips generally don't.
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"Silly stuff is not that rare in this world, especially silly stuff aimed at businessmen," Krugman said, but even
by the undemanding intellectual standards of business, the obsession with national competitiveness is an
"incredibly large-scale intellectual scam."
Setting aside that a nation is incalculably more complex than a corporation and that it doesn't go out of
business no matter how poor its export performance, Krugman pointed out that if other nations' economies
grow faster than that of Canada, this in no way impoverishes Canada.
Indeed, this foreign growth actually benefits Canada by offering an even bigger global market in which
Canadian companies can sell. What's more, if other countries grow faster because they devise cheaper or
better products than Canada now has, we benefit doubly because Canadian consumers can now buy those
products.
The big fallacy - that trade is a war in which one country must lose for another to win - brings with it a
number of smaller fallacies. One is the false notion that globalization means that low-wage countries are
becoming so "competitive" that they will quickly drag all wages down.
But Krugman notes that this assumption is based on the belief that workers in Singapore and Mexico will
soon be working with the same amount of sophisticated, expensive capital equipment and infrastructure as
North America, Europe and Japan, and this belief is false.
Net capital flows to all the world's emerging economic powers totals about $ 60 billion a year, which may
sound like a lot, but is in fact just 2 per cent of the $ 3 trillion invested annually in advanced countries.
Krugman further points out that many of the boosters of national"competitiveness"seem to believe that
cutting-edge technologies are the only route to prosperity, although the evidence doesn't support this view.
For example, one popular U.S. slogan is that a competitive nation should focus on producing computer chips,
not potato chips. Actually, Krugman found, workers who make potato chips add more value on average than
those who make computer chips. One reason is that potato chips benefit from the extra profitability that goes
with brand loyalty while computer chips generally don't.
Does this mean that government policies have no impact whatever on a nation's economic well-being? Of
course not.
Governments can substantially help business in many ways, through sensible policies on interest rates, taxation and
education, among other examples. But Krugman's point is that these things would be helpful even if there were no
such thing as international trade. That's because nations don't really compete; they simply govern themselves well or
badly.
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Greg Ip, senior special writer for The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Post, 3-13- 1993,
Economist blasts 'competitiveness'
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&r
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ey=29_T4244914208&cisb=22_T4244914207&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=10882&
docNo=1
The doctrine of ''international competitiveness'' that governments, business and academics have seized upon
is misguided and dangerous, one of the world's most prominent trade economists says.
''The greatest threat to the continued growth of the integrated global economy is the misperception that what
we have is a competitive race with a limited number of prizes,'' Paul Krugman told the Canadian Graduate
Business Conference in Toronto Friday.
The competitiveness doctrine thinks countries compete like companies and end up winners or losers, said
Krugman, an economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, one of the founding
academics of ''new trade theory'' and an influential academic in Democractic Party circles.
''To what extent is country A's gain country B's loss? Very little. You ought to cringe when you hear
'international competitiveness.' It doesn't exist as a meaningful concept.''
Krugman said competitiveness fits neither classical trade theory, which holds countries are endowed with a
comparative advantage that makes trade mutually beneficial regardless of productivity differences, nor new
trade theory that suggests mere chance can influence trade patterns.
Competitiveness advocates, among whom Krugman includes U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich, usually
argue a country should compete by becoming more productive and promoting high-value industries with
well-paying jobs, Krugman said.
They believe there are good sectors and bad sectors, that manufacturing should be promoted, particularly
''sunrise, high-value industries.''
But he said in supposedly strategic industries like aerospace, value added per worker is only US$68,000 and
in electronics it's only US$64,000, while in mundane industries like cigarettes it's US$488,000 and in
petroleum it's US$284,000.
Krugman said competitiveness may create ''a tendency to protect or subsidize industries, to adopt a confrontational
attitude in trade policy where it isn't necessary.''
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"Silly stuff is not that rare in this world, especially silly stuff aimed at businessmen," Krugman said, but even
by the undemanding intellectual standards of business, the obsession with national competitiveness is an
"incredibly large-scale intellectual scam."
Setting aside that a nation is incalculably more complex than a corporation and that it doesn't go out of
business no matter how poor its export performance, Krugman pointed out that if other nations' economies
grow faster than that of Canada, this in no way impoverishes Canada.
Indeed, this foreign growth actually benefits Canada by offering an even bigger global market in which
Canadian companies can sell. What's more, if other countries grow faster because they devise cheaper or
better products than Canada now has, we benefit doubly because Canadian consumers can now buy those
products.
The big fallacy - that trade is a war in which one country must lose for another to win - brings with it a
number of smaller fallacies. One is the false notion that globalization means that low-wage countries are
becoming so "competitive" that they will quickly drag all wages down.
But Krugman notes that this assumption is based on the belief that workers in Singapore and Mexico will
soon be working with the same amount of sophisticated, expensive capital equipment and infrastructure as
North America, Europe and Japan, and this belief is false.
Net capital flows to all the world's emerging economic powers totals about $ 60 billion a year, which may
sound like a lot, but is in fact just 2 per cent of the $ 3 trillion invested annually in advanced countries.
Krugman further points out that many of the boosters of national"competitiveness"seem to believe that
cutting-edge technologies are the only route to prosperity, although the evidence doesn't support this view.
For example, one popular U.S. slogan is that a competitive nation should focus on producing computer chips,
not potato chips. Actually, Krugman found, workers who make potato chips add more value on average than
those who make computer chips. One reason is that potato chips benefit from the extra profitability that goes
with brand loyalty while computer chips generally don't.
Does this mean that government policies have no impact whatever on a nation's economic well-being? Of
course not.
Governments can substantially help business in many ways, through sensible policies on interest rates, taxation and
education, among other examples. But Krugman's point is that these things would be helpful even if there were no
such thing as international trade. That's because nations don't really compete; they simply govern themselves well or
badly.
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**No Uniqueness**
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I have written on several occasions in the past in regards to how the US is currently “borrowing” up to $2
billion a day to keep the government running. I have also suspected, that when the foreign funding stops, our
government and financial system will run a real risk of hyperinflation.
Today, we find ourselves one step closer to the funding stopping. The day that the world loses final
confidence in the credit worthiness of the US, is the day foreign governments stop buying US paper
instruments.
When China and other major trade partners make this decision, be prepared for a huge slide in dollar value,
and many overseas USD coming back to US shores. The effects of this will be higher food and gas prices,
and higher prices of all commodities for not just Americans, but people the world over as dollar denominated
goods that are required for basic life will see dollars flood into those markets. There are Trillions of USD
now currently held in national reserves of China, Opec, Japan, Russia. The time will come when the holders
of those reserves will no longer be willing to sit on them and watch them burn as the dollar devalues at 12%-
18% a year.
Governments the world over will be looking for a safe harbor as the value of USD plummets. They will likely turn
first to the Euro, but over time as they realize it has no true strength behind it, and that it is just one more fiat
currency, may eventually find their way back to gold.
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**No Impact**
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Competitiveness No Impact
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**No Solvency**
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Summary: The view that nations compete against each other like big corporations has become pervasive
among Western elites, many of whom are in the Clinton administration. As a practical matter, however, the
doctrine of ?competitiveness? is flatly wrong. The world?s leading nations are not, to any important degree,
in economic competition with each other. Nor can their major economic woes be attributed to ?losing? on
world markets. This is particularly true in the case of the United States. Yet Clinton?s theorists of
competitiveness, from Laura D. Andrea Tyson to Robert Reich to Ira Magaziner, make seemingly
sophisticated arguments, most of which are supported by careless arithmetic and sloppy research.
Competitiveness is a seductive idea, promising easy answers to complex problems. But the result of this
obsession is misallocated resources, trade frictions and bad domestic economic policies.
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The trouble isn’t with stable prices in themselves. Rampant inflation is an obvious curse. And a deflationary
bust is a very painful thing. Rather, it comes from the attempt by the monetary authorities to achieve price
stability in the face of countervailing forces. This policy led to the US and UK housing bubbles. It is now
threatening to wreak destruction on certain countries in the Eurozone.
Economists and central bankers generally associate falling prices with the Great Depression and Japan’s
lingering economic malaise. As a result, they seek at all times to prevent the general price level from
declining. This is misguided. There are times when the economy benefits from improvements to the supply
side. Technological advances, rising productivity and the removal of impediments to global trade all
constitute supply shocks. If left to their own devices, they also lead to falling prices. The public has nothing
to fear from this outcome. In fact, people are better off when consumer prices decline because their
purchasing power is enhanced.
Nevertheless, central bankers resist the “good deflation” by lowering interest rates. This policy has
unintended consequences. Low interest rates induce people to spend more and save less. They also send a
signal to firms to raise their level of investment. As a result, a credit boom develops and asset prices start to
inflate.
Over time, the boom puts pressure on scarce resources and prices start to rise. The central bank is forced
belatedly to raise rates. Later, it becomes apparent that there has been over-investment in certain areas of the
economy.
When the good times end, households and companies find themselves left with too much debt relative to
their incomes. Defaults erode banks’ capital and bankruptcies soar. Both borrowers and lenders become more
risk averse and less willing to transact. As the credit crunch worsens, the money supply contracts and prices
start to fall.
This is the “bad deflation”, or more properly the “debt deflation” to use Irving Fisher’s phrase. However, this
deflation doesn’t appear out of the blue. As we have seen, it follows directly from the central bank’s attempt
to stop prices from falling during the preceding boom.
There is nothing new in this analysis. Several years before the Great Crash of 1929, the Austrian economist
(and future Nobel laureate) Friedrich Hayek argued that the Federal Reserve’s pursuit of price stability had
created a credit bubble that would end in disaster. More recently, officials at the Bank of Japan have
acknowledged their responsibility for creating the bubble economy of the 1980s. Inflation was quiescent at
the time, so the BoJ kept interest rates low and allowed bank credit to escalate and property prices to soar.
Once again debt deflation appeared after Japanese banks suffered enormous losses while companies and
consumers became reluctant to borrow.
The last decade or so has witnessed another powerful supply shock, which followed from the information
revolution and the growing role of China and India in the global economy.
Yet prices weren’t allowed to fall. Instead, the Fed under Alan Greenspan responded to the decline in
inflation by keeping interest rates lower than otherwise.
This policy resulted in the tech bubble and later the US housing bubble. If the Bernanke Fed wasn’t doing
everything in its power to shore up the financial system, the US would face a severe debt deflation.
The Federal Reserve isn’t the only culprit among central banks. The Bank of England has been shackled with
an inflation target since achieving independence in 1997.
While inflation remained in check earlier this decade, UK interest rates were kept low. Consumer debt soared
and house prices climbed far higher than in the US. Britain now faces a painful hangover from its housing
bust.
The Fed, at least, has a dual mandate to seek to achieve both stable prices and economic growth. The
European Central Bank has a narrower focus. Its primary aim is to achieve price stability. The ECB’s
monetary policy has inflated several housing bubbles this decade. Irish house prices nearly tripled over the
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**Other**
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There is growing concern that spreading poverty is leading to an increase in suicide, crime and the divorce
rate and even aggravating Japan’s falling birth rate. “Poverty is not just a situation of low wages but isolation
from society, from family, friends and workplace,” says Tsuyoshi Takagi, president of the Japanese Trade
Union Confederation. “Japan’s silent public is reaching the limit [of its patience],” he says.
As public frustration has grown, the finger is being pointed at past policies of deregulation, particularly of the
labour market. There are calls for tighter regulation, higher taxes on the rich and a redistribution of wealth. In
a bid to placate a worried public, the government has responded with plans to ban – in principle – the
contracting of unskilled day labourers.
But in an era of global competition, turning back the clock on labour reforms would be a simplistic response
to a complex problem. A labour contract based on lifetime employment and seniority, coupled with
companies hiring straight out of college, rewards those already in the system with stable employment, pay
and benefits, no matter how unproductive they may be, says Naohiro Yashiro, professor of labour economics
at the International Christian University. It also penalises those who have slipped through the cracks,
regardless of their potential.
Many of the working poor are those who, having failed to secure a place within the system to begin with,
become destitute as they grow older and their chances of finding even part-time work decrease. Many
freeters, for example, cannot find full-time work because Japanese companies are reluctant to hire anyone
who has not been in stable employment. The system also discourages much-needed venture businesses, since
the opportunity costs for anyone who dares opt out of it are prohibitively high, Prof Yashiro says.
Japan, no doubt, needs to rebuild its social safety net, with greater security for its ageing population and measures to
improve conditions for those outside the regular workforce. But unless Japan can also find a way to promote labour
mobility and allow those who have fallen out of the employment system to come back in, it may not be too far-
fetched to conceive of the social unrest witnessed in Nishinari spreading to other parts of the country.
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Not long before representatives of the world’s richest nations convened in Toyako for the glitziest event in
the history of this remote Japanese fishing community, a very different scene unfolded just a few hundred
kilometres south. Angry day labourers in Nishinari, Osaka, threw stones and firebombs at riot police,
overturned a car and set fire to garbage, venting their frustration at their inability to find work.
The violence, which involved an estimated 200 people and went on for two days last month, was a long way
from the serene facade that Japanese society normally presents to the world. But the riots were just one
extreme manifestation of the social cracks that are appearing in a country that has often, if half-jokingly, been
referred to as the world’s most successful socialist state.
Following more than a decade of economic stagnation, Japan is no longer the gentle place it used to be for
the weaker members of its society.
In a relatively short time, the world’s second largest economy has been transformed from a cohesive,
egalitarian society to one saddled with the ills of the neo-liberalist model: a growing underclass, social
alienation, widening income disparities and simmering discontent. The country’s once-vaunted social and
labour contracts have failed to keep up with the changes wrought by globalisation, leaving a large number of
people barely managing to survive.
Although unemployment in Japan, at about 4 per cent, is by no means high, the number of so-called
“working poor”, who earn less than Y2m ($18,600, €11,800, £9,400) annually – a level considered to be
close to, if not at, the poverty line – has risen at an alarming rate. In 1997, 5m workers fell in that category
but by last year the number had doubled to 10m, according to a government survey.
The rise in working poor stems largely from a sharp increase in non-regular workers as Japanese companies
restructure their workforces to cut costs and remain globally competitive. Non-regular workers, including
part-time workers, temporary workers and others, comprise more than a third of the total workforce,
according to government statistics. In addition, there are at least 1.8m “freeters”, who take on whatever
temporary jobs they can find and generally have no benefits. Thousands of freeters, in their 20s and 30s,
sleep in internet cafés and are unable to find stable employment because they lack a permanent address.
Japan’s minimum wage, at Y687 an hour, is in danger of falling to the lowest level among Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development countries once the US implements legislation to raise its minimum wage.
Japan is still, relatively speaking, an egalitarian society, where income disparities are nowhere near as large as they
are in many western societies. But the old social and labour contract – which promised income stability, assured that
hard work would be rewarded, healthcare would be within everyone’s reach and people could retire knowing that
their pensions would keep them off the streets – no longer applies to a considerable proportion of the Japanese
public.
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Tan Kim Song, The Straits Times, 9-19-1994, “Global competitiveness: Just a load of rubbish?”
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4245548
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PAUL Krugman, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States, is not your
usual run-of-the-mill economist.
As one of the profession's brightest stars and an author of best-selling books, he commands a large audience
both within and outside the academic community.
So when he wrote, not once, but repeatedly, that it was totally meaningless to extend the notion of
"international competitiveness" from a company to the entire economy, you can bet that the message will not
go unnoticed.
His arguments are, as usual, uncannily simple. Unlike corporate rivalry such as that between Coca-Cola and
Pepsi, he said, competition between two economies is not a "zero-sum" game.
While Coca-Cola might make its fortune at the expense of Pepsi (and vice-versa), most economies usually
sell to and buy from one another at the same time.
This means that a boom in one economy, which enhances its purchasing power for imports, might actually be
a boon for another.
To equate the two types of competition blindly, Prof Krugman warned -both in articles which appeared in
recent issues of Foreign Affairs and in his other writings -is not only wrong, but highly dangerous too.
At best, the pervasiveness of the zero-sum mentality could lead to a policy of "picking winners" by
individual governments which, given their dismal records on the matter, usually ends up as a wasteful
misallocation of resources.
At worst, it could result in debilitating trade conflicts.
"What if, despite its best effort, a country does not seem to be winning, or lacks confidence that it can?" he
asked.
Chances are, he said, that it would resort to some protectionist policies to prevent the loss of high-wage jobs
in its own economy.
Such a view, needless to say, will not endear Prof Krugman to many people.
International competitiveness, lest one forgets, is the buzzword in town these days, embraced widely by
politicians and businessmen alike.
Rare are the days, indeed, when one does not hear exhortations on the need to "stay ahead in an increasingly
competitive global economy".
But whether one agrees with Prof Krugman or not, he has certainly shown that there is more to the word
"competitiveness" than meets the eye.
He has also helped focus the readers' minds on an important question: To what ends is an economy's
"international competitiveness" geared?
When politicians urge their people to stay ahead in international competition, for example, are they asking
them to go forth and grab a bigger share of the global product market?
Or are they simply talking about raising the standards of living?
It is important to clarify these issues. How else does one justify the use of public funds "to improve an
economy's competitiveness"?
Unfortunately, few people, including those in charge of formulating economic policies, seem to have
provided a clear vision on this matter.
Even among international think tanks that undertake regular studies on the subject, the interpretations of
competitiveness are hardly uniform.
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, for example, defines competitiveness as "the
degree to which a country can, under free and fair market conditions, produce goods and services which meet
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Michael Schrage, columnist for the Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, 3-11-1994,
To an MIT Maven, 'Competitiveness' Is Just Clinton's Voodoo Economics,
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An American economy that cares a great deal about boosting domestic productivity requires policy makers
who care very little about global competitiveness.
A Zen koan for the nationalistic '90s? The sound of one Keynesian clapping? A lyric for aspiring autarkists?
None of the above. It's the startling pronouncement of MIT's Paul Krugman, one of the country's most
brilliant young economists, a nonpartisan academic with a reputation for intellectual honesty and a cruel
tongue. You might recall that Krugman was widely quoted criticizing industrial policy economist Laura
D'Andrea Tyson's research when President Clinton named her chairman of his Council of Economic
Advisers.
Alternating between statistical scalpels and macroeconomic machetes, Krugman bloodily eviscerates
"competitiveness" as a policy doctrine without any kind of economic validity. What supply-side "economics"
was to Reaganomics, Krugman asserts, competitiveness has become to Clintonomics: a sort of pseudo-
rational pastiche that Nobel Prize-winning chemist Irving Langmuir once described as "pathological science"
-- that is to say, no science at all.
"To make a harsh but not entirely unjustified analogy," he says in his essay "Competitiveness: A Dangerous
Obsession" in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, "a government wedded to the ideology of competitiveness
is as unlikely to make good economic policy as a government committed to creationism is to make good
science policy, even in areas that have no direct relationship to the theory of evolution."
"Gee, we must be making progress," smiles Dan Burton, president of the Council of (sigh) Competitiveness,
which was formed by frustrated high-technology executives after the Reagan administration's rejection of its
own presidential commission on the topic. "In 1987, competitiveness was dismissed as a buzzword. Today,
it's graduated to being a dangerous obsession."
Might Krugman be the one with the dangerous obsession? You wouldn't think so after seeing the numbers.
His arguments would command respect even without his impeccable credentials. They're important because
he takes global competitiveness champions such as Tyson, U.S. Trade Representative Mickey Kantor, Labor
Secretary Robert B. Reich and health care guru Ira Magaziner on their own terms, impatiently redoes their
arithmetic for them and makes a strong case that competitiveness issues amount to little more than a rounding
error in the $ 6 trillion U.S. economy.
"It's a dead end of a type we've seen before," says Krugman, who is comparably harsh in his assessments of
Reagan's supply-siders and former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher's monetarists. "You take
something with a grain of truth and some people seize on it... . Here, some characters have taken small
conflicts of interest between countries and decided to build an economic policy around them."
But why do so many hard-headed business people find "competitiveness" so alluring?
"Because people generalize from their own experience," Krugman asserts. "The experience that a CEO gets is one of
global competition, but even the CEO of a large multinational has a worm's-eye view of world trade."
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