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ADI 08

Spring
Food Prices toolkit

Food Prices Toolkit – Spring 3


Food Prices Toolkit – Spring 3 .............................................................................................................................1
** Uniqueness and Links **..................................................................................................................................5
Food prices High....................................................................................................................................................6
Food Prices High....................................................................................................................................................7
Food Prices Low.....................................................................................................................................................8
Food Prices Low.....................................................................................................................................................9
Food prices DA link ............................................................................................................................................10
AT – Food Prices – Alt cause land shortages.....................................................................................................11
Alt Cause – Bad Weather....................................................................................................................................12
Alt Cause – Infrastructure deficiency................................................................................................................13
AT – Food Prices – Human Ingenuity Solves....................................................................................................14
AT – Food Prices – Alt Cause population..........................................................................................................15
AT – Food prices – Alt Cause Generic...............................................................................................................16
AT – Food Prices – Alt Cause generic................................................................................................................16
AT – Food Price – Oil Alt cause..........................................................................................................................18
AT – Food Price – Oil Alt cause..........................................................................................................................19
**Commodities**.................................................................................................................................................20
Sugar DA - Ethanol..............................................................................................................................................21
Sugar DA - Ethanol..............................................................................................................................................22
Sugar Ethanol DA link Extension.......................................................................................................................23
Brazil Econ Strong now.......................................................................................................................................24
Corn Prices low now............................................................................................................................................25
Corn Prices low now............................................................................................................................................26
corn prices low now.............................................................................................................................................27
Corn Price link ....................................................................................................................................................28
AT: IOWA LOSS..................................................................................................................................................29
Corn Prices high ..................................................................................................................................................30
Wheat Price DA Impact - Pakistan....................................................................................................................31
Wheat prices high now........................................................................................................................................32
Wheat price low....................................................................................................................................................33
High Wheat  instability ..................................................................................................................................34

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High Wheat  Famine........................................................................................................................................35


High Wheat kills economy...................................................................................................................................36
Wheat shortage temporary.................................................................................................................................37
Rice Prices low now.............................................................................................................................................38
Rice Price low now...............................................................................................................................................39
Rice Price low now...............................................................................................................................................40
Rice Price DA.......................................................................................................................................................41
Rice Price DA.......................................................................................................................................................42
Rice Subsidies key to Price..................................................................................................................................43
Rice Subsidies key to Price..................................................................................................................................44
High Prices hurt Rice Producers........................................................................................................................45
Rice key to Cali Economy....................................................................................................................................46
Fish Price DA........................................................................................................................................................47
Cotton Price DA Link..........................................................................................................................................48
Plan Increases cotton prices................................................................................................................................49
Cotton Price low now...........................................................................................................................................50
Cotton Prices high now........................................................................................................................................51
Cotton Price High now........................................................................................................................................52
**Generic Food Price Impacts**........................................................................................................................52
Famine...................................................................................................................................................................54
Famine...................................................................................................................................................................55
Famine...................................................................................................................................................................56
Famine...................................................................................................................................................................57
Famine – Deontology...........................................................................................................................................58
Famine –Deontology ...........................................................................................................................................59
Famine - Deontology............................................................................................................................................60
Africa War............................................................................................................................................................61
Africa War............................................................................................................................................................62
Resource Wars......................................................................................................................................................63
Resource Wars......................................................................................................................................................64
Resource Wars......................................................................................................................................................65
Failed States..........................................................................................................................................................66
Food Riots.............................................................................................................................................................67
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Food Prices toolkit

Food Riots.............................................................................................................................................................68
Economy Impact..................................................................................................................................................69
Pakistan ................................................................................................................................................................70
India Impact Module...........................................................................................................................................71
Haiti.......................................................................................................................................................................72
Egypt.....................................................................................................................................................................73
China Module.......................................................................................................................................................74
China.....................................................................................................................................................................75
China key to food security ..................................................................................................................................76
Poverty..................................................................................................................................................................77
HIV/AIDS ............................................................................................................................................................78
HIV/AIDS.............................................................................................................................................................79
HIV/AIDs..............................................................................................................................................................80
Biodiversity ..........................................................................................................................................................81
Genocide................................................................................................................................................................82
Genocide ...............................................................................................................................................................83
Food Security - Generic.......................................................................................................................................84
Food Insecurity: War...........................................................................................................................................85
Food Insecurity: War...........................................................................................................................................86
Food Insecurity: Biodiversity Impact................................................................................................................87
Food Security: Terrorism Impact.......................................................................................................................88
Food Insecurity: Genocide Impact.....................................................................................................................89
**High Prices Good**.........................................................................................................................................90
High Food Prices Solve Poverty..........................................................................................................................91
High Food Prices Solve Poverty..........................................................................................................................92
High Food Prices Good  African Food security............................................................................................93
High Food Prices Good  African food security.............................................................................................94
High Food Prices Good  increase farm econ.................................................................................................95
High Prices Good – Brazil...................................................................................................................................96
**Other **............................................................................................................................................................97
HUNGER INEVITABLE....................................................................................................................................98
AT Food Prices DA..............................................................................................................................................99

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Food Prices toolkit

AT Food Price DA..............................................................................................................................................100


WAR TURNS CASE..........................................................................................................................................101

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Food Prices toolkit

** Uniqueness and Links **

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Food Prices toolkit

Food prices High


Food prices to remain 35 percent higher than the past decade.
The Daily Green 6/6- (Annie Bell Muzaurieta, 6-6-08, ”The Future of Food Prices Crop Output Threatened by Wet Weather in
Midwest, Dry Weather in Australia,” The Daily Green, http://www.thedailygreen.com/healthy-eating/eat-safe/food-prices-continue-
increase-44060608)

Meanwhile, dry weather in western Australia is wreaking havoc with that area's grain crops. Total grain output may be between 10 million metric tons and 12
million tons this harvest, less than initial government estimates, after a dry May. This news comes after the UN's Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggested that in the
next 10 years food prices will remain well above the levels of the last decade, according to All Africa. The various factors
contributing to the rise in food prices include high oil prices, changing diets, urbanization, economic growth and
expanding populations, but also the growth in demand for biofuels. According to the report, the FAO and OECD said that world ethanol
production has tripled between 2000 and 2007 and is expected to double again in the next decade. Climate change, low stock levels and
speculation could also add to price volatility. An excerpt of FAO's Food Outlook report indicated: "Prices in real terms are projected
to be 10 percent to 35 percent higher than in the past decade. Even a bumper harvest expected this year will do little to
ease the plight of the world's poor."

Food prices are expected to continue to escalate


Columbia Missourian 08-(Laura Chapius, January 9, 2008 , “Food prices expected to rise,” Columbia Missourian,
http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2008/01/09/food-prices-expected-rise/)

COLUMBIA — Consumers all over the world can expect to pay more for food in coming years. The Economic Research
Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects prices to rise another 4 percent this year. If the projected increase for 2008
proves true, consumers will see the highest increase in food prices since 1990. With commodity prices hitting record levels and energy
costs increasing, retailers must make up for the difference in the form of higher food costs. MU Agricultural Economics professor Joe Parcell credits
several factors for the rise in food prices: exports, feed use, biofuels. Parcell blames the weak dollar and exports that are driven by
a strong global economy. “The weak dollar is causing $4 a bushel of corn to look as cheap, for foreign buyers, as $2.50 a bushel of corn from a few years
ago,” he said. “I don’t think anyone could have guessed that exports would be so strong.” The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the
food cost increase to rise nearly 50 percent more than the overall rate of inflation based on the consumer price index.
The index measures the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Web site. It may not reflect every consumer’s experience because not everyone spends money the same way.

Food Prices will continue to rise- multiple reasons.


Bezold, Fidler, and Olson 08- (Clement Bezold, Devin Fidler, and Robert Olson, June 2008, “Food 2028: Key Forecasts,”
Institute for Alternative Futures, http://www.eyeonfda.com/eye_on_fda/2008/06/the-future-of-f.html)

Food prices will increase sharply over the next two decades. This will be driven by increased costs of farming inputs,
transportation, and energy generally; challenges from climate change; and land, soil and fishery conditions. Meat prices
will see particularly significant increases. A broad set of trends are acting to raise food prices, and each of these trends has a
great deal of momentum. Major initiatives to address the challenges these trends pose can alleviate price pressures, but
cannot take hold fast enough to prevent significant price increases in the years ahead. Key trends include: • Increasing
demand from rising affluence and changing diets in developing nations • Rapidly rising oil/energy prices •Climate instability • Water scarcity •
Conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses • Competition of biofuel crops with food crops • Cutbacks in food exports • Decline and
collapse of fisheries

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Food Prices toolkit

Food Prices High


Overall crop and livestock prices have increased 16% this year, according to a recent USDA report.
Grain is up 42%, Corn is up 69%, and soybeans have doubled in price. Domestic biofuels are a main
cause.
Associated Press Financial Wire, “Food prices rise 16 percent during 2008” July 31, 2008, Lexis
Rising costs for fuel, feed and fertilizer propelled grain prices to all-time highs in June, raising the overall price of crops
and livestock by 16 percent this year compared to last year. Corn and soybeans hit record prices. Wheat slipped from
historic highs in March but is still up steeply from last year, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report released
Thursday. Grain prices gained 42 percent for the year overall. Prices for farm products rose 1.9 percent in June alone,
according to the report. Grain staples including wheat and soybeans rose 1.6 percent during June. The price of livestock rose less than 1 percent. The annual
report measures the price that farmers receive for their goods, not the ultimate price that consumers pay for food. Crops and livestock costs amount to a
fraction of the final cost of food, after transportation, packaging and marketing costs are also factored in. While soaring grain prices mean big profits for
farmers and agribusiness firms like Archer Daniels Midland Co. and ConAgra Food Inc., the trend is hurting meat companies Like Tyson Foods Inc. Meat
prices haven't nearly kept pace with the cost of grain, which is the biggest input cost for meat processors. The USDA report shows corn and
soybean prices climbing rapidly since 2007. The cost for cattle and hogs has largely stagnated. Even though corn farmers seem able to pass on the
higher cost of their fertilizers and fuel, meat companies haven't been able to do the same, said USDA statistician Daryl Brinkman. "Demand for (meat) is not
quite there. And there is plenty of supply to meet that demand, so that is keeping those prices pretty steady," Brinkman said. Corn and soybean
farmers, on the other hand, are seeing more demand than ever for their crops. While exports are increasing, so is
domestic use of the crops for biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel. Corn sold for an average of $5.61 a bushel in June,
up 69 percent from $3.32 in 2007. Soybeans sold for $14.20 a bushel, nearly double last year's figure of $7.56. Corn went
for just $2.14 a bushel in 2006 and soybeans sold for $5.61.

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Food Prices toolkit

Food Prices Low

Food Prices expected to drop in the near future.


Polish News Bulletin 6-12(June 12, 2008, “Food Prices to Fall in Coming Months,” Polish News Bulletin, lexis)

According to a monthly report by the Institute of Agriculture Economics and Food Management (IERiGZ), food prices should
start falling in the coming months, and the July-August decrease may be greater than last year, even though drought has
brought harvest forecasts down. In mid-year the price of meat (especially pork) may grow at a faster pace, due to the
seasonal supply decrease. The authors of the report cite the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and the National Bank of Poland
(NBP)'s May results on consumer confidence to state that consumption growth may slow down. The institute expects that the
demand for food will fall in the coming months on account of the growing general costs of living. Although in April food
price growth rate exceeded the general inflation rate due to the seasonal fruit and vegetable price rises. However, owing to
promising harvests, food is not seen as an inflation-causing factor this year.

Food Prices will drop with good crop production conditions.


Trostle 08(Ronald Trostle, May 2008, “Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food
Commodity Prices,” USDA.)

With such low world stocks of food commodities, food prices are vulnerable to a production shortfall in one or more major production areas. If a significant
shortfall occurs this year due to weather or disease, food prices might continue to rise sharply from the current high level. Although trade fl ows can mitigate
some of these effects, new or existing trade restrictions or barriers can exacerbate price impacts. However, if good crop production conditions exist
in the Northern Hemisphere during the next 6 months, food commodity prices could retreat signifi cantly from their
current highs.

Food prices are low in real terms


Banse, Nowicki, van Meijl, LEI Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Senior Researcher, Head of division
Agricultural Policy at LEI, 5/08, p.
http://www.europabio.org/Biofuels/documents/Wageninen_causes%20of%20high%20world%20food%20prices.pdf (Martin, Peter,
and Hans, “Why are current world food prices so high?”, LEI)

World agricultural prices are very volatile which is due to traditional characteristics of agricultural markets such as inelastic (short run) supply and demand curves
(see, Meijl et al. 2003).1 The volatility is also high because the world market is a relatively small residual market in a world distorted by agricultural policies.2 The
combination of high technological change and inelastic demand cause real world prices to decline in the long run (trend). The prices, however, of many (major)
agricultural commodities have risen quickly over recent years (see Figure 1). Recent increase in agricultural prices are strong, but even with the
increase that we have observed in the last three years, real agricultural prices are still low compared to the peaks in prices of the
mid970s. Local prices are linked with these world prices. The transmission effect depends on the transparency of markets, market power and accessibility. Figure
2 depicts the price index for food commodities along with an index for the average of all commodities and an index for crude oil. Although the food commodity
index has risen more than 60 percent in the last 2 years, the index for all commodities has also risen 60 percent and the index for crude oil has risen even more (see,
also Trostle 2008)1. Since 1999 food commodity prices have risen 98 percent (as of March 2008); the index for all commodities has risen 286 percent; and the
index for crude oil has risen 547 percent. In this perspective, the recent rise in food commodity prices is moderate. Figure 3 shows that spot prices in early 2008 for
soybean and wheat are declining again while the spot prices for rice and crude oil continue to rise. The prices of wheat and soybeans declined by
almost 30% and almost 20%, respectively, since their peak at the end of February this year. However, although real food prices are not extremely
high in a historical perspective and other commodities have risen more, an increase in the price of food – a basic necessity – causes hardships for
many lower income consumers around the world. This makes food9price inflation socially and politically sensitive. This is why much of the world’s attention is
now focused on the increase in food prices more than on the more rapid increase in prices of other commodities, (see, Trostle 2008, p. 4).

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Food Prices toolkit

Food Prices Low


Food prices will decline
Halliday, Staff Reporter, 5/29/08, p. http://www.meatprocess.com/news/ng.asp?n=85575-oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-food-
prices (Jess, “Food prices will fall but remain above average, OECD/FAO”, meatprocessor.com)

The outlook says that the increase in prices since 2005/6 is partly the result of adverse weather conditions in major grain producing regions, with spill over effects
on crops and livestock. "In the context of low global stocks, these developments alone would have triggered strong price reactions." However such causes of
food price inflation are not new and they are not permanent; they have happened in the past, and prices have come down once the
situation returns to normality and supply response. Despite conceding that weather conditions and agricultural product supply may become more
variable with climate change, the outlook authors say they see no reason to believe that resolution seen in the past will not recur in the next few
years.

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Food prices DA link

Lifting subsidies massively risks raising food prices and creating more food insecurity.
Masami Kojima of the Oil, Gas, and Mining Policy Division, World Bank; Donald Mitchell of the Development Prospects Group,
Development Economics, World Bank; and William A. Ward 2007, Professor and Director, Center for International Trade,
Clemson University. 2007 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels

The poor can be adversely affected by agricultural trade liberalization because prices of most agricultural commodities
are likely to increase. As mentioned earlier in the chapter, liberalization of trade in sugar is expected to increase world sugar
prices by as much as 40 percent. Those countries that are already integrated into international markets and possess
good infrastructure are likely to benefit, but rising agricultural commodity prices could have a negative effect on food
security in developing countries that are net food importers.4 Prices are expected to rise more steeply for the food
products that developing countries import than for the commodities they export. The leastdeveloped countries, very few
of whom export temperate-zone or competing products on which there are currently high tariffs, would generally be
worse off (FAO 2003). In all cases, there are intra-country variations in addition to differences across countries. Net buyers of food, including
farmworkers, will be adversely affected by rising food prices; the negative effects are not confined to urban areas only.

Subsidies keep food prices low.

Conde Nast Portfolio May 14th 2008

The truth is that the U.S. and European subsidies that cause the Post, the NYT, the World Bank and many
NGOs to get apoplectic have the effect of lowering world food prices. That means that fewer people go hungry
than would be the case without these subsidies. This isn't rocket science, it's almost definitional. The U.S. and European
effectively pay their farmers to keep farming, thereby producing more food than otherwise would be produced.
This may have negative consequences for farmers elsewhere in the world, but it does mean that supply is
greater and prices are lower than they would be in the absence of the subsidies.

SUBSIDIES LOWER CROP PRICES


REIDL 07 (June 20, 2007, “How Farm Subsidies Harm Taxpayers, Consumers, and Farmers, Too,” Brian M.
Riedl, Heritage Foundation)
This year's expiration of federal agriculture policies gives Congress an important opportunity to take a fresh look at the $25 billion spent annually on farm
subsidies. Current farm policies are so poorly designed that they actually worsen the conditions they claim to solve. For example:
* Farm subsidies are intended to alleviate farmer poverty, but the majority of subsidies go to commercial farms with average
incomes of $200,000 and net worths of nearly $2 million. * Farm subsidies are intended to raise farmer incomes by
remedying low crop prices. Instead, they promote overproduction and therefore lower prices further. * Farm subsidies are intended
to help struggling family farmers. Instead, they harm them by excluding them from most subsidies, financing the consolidation of family farms, and raising
land values to levels that prevent young people from entering farming. * Farm subsidies are intended to be consumer-friendly and taxpayer-
friendly. Instead, they cost Americans billions each year in higher taxes and higher food costs.

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Food Prices toolkit

AT – Food Prices – Alt cause land shortages

It is impossible to avoid competition for land with food and other agriculture.

Doornbosch and Steenblik September 2007. Paris. Round Table on Sustainable Development. Gneral
Secretariat.

These estimates should be viewed with caution. As the FAO (2000) warns, the models used to calculate
land availability tend to over-estimate the amount of land that could be used for agriculture and under-
estimate the area of land that is already in use (by 10-20%). Moreover, in practice it is often extremely
difficult to make land that is technically available for agriculture actually available in practice. Other
competing demands will exist that put constraints on future changes in land use. Increasing demand for
natural fibres and other materials, for foods grown less intensively or using organic production methods,
for conservation of ecosystems and biodiversity, and for carbon sequestration, can all be expected to
reduce the land available at a given rental cost. In short, competition for arable land among food, fibre,
biomaterials and energy production cannot be avoided.

Although in theory there is enough land to feed everyone, land use constraints make it almost impossible,
thus causing an unavoidable food-versus fuel debate.

Doornbosch and Steenblik September 2007. Paris. Round Table on Sustainable Development. General
Secretariat.
Global production of biofuels amounted to 0.8 EJ in 2005, or roughly 1% of total road transport fuel consumption.
Technically, up to 20 EJ from conventional ethanol and biodiesel, or 11% of total demand for liquid fuels in the transport
sector, has been judged possible by 2050.1 An expansion on this scale could not be achieved, however, without significant
impacts on the wider global economy. In theory there might be enough land available around the globe to feed an
everincreasing world population and produce sufficient biomass feedstock simultaneously, but it is more likely that land-use
constraints will limit the amount of new land that can be brought into production leading to a “food-versus-fuel” debate.
Moreover, land use will be driven by the net private benefit owners can derive from their land. Any diversion of land from food or feed
production to production of energy biomass will influence food prices from the start, as both compete for the same inputs. The effects
on farm commodity prices can already be seen today. The rapid growth of the biofuels industry is likely to keep these prices high and
rising throughout at least the next decade (OECD/FAO, 2007).

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Food Prices toolkit

Alt Cause – Bad Weather


Alt causality- bad weather
McClure and Paulson, Staff Reporters 5/28/08, p. http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/364800_climate28.html (Robert, Tom, “Get
used to high food costs, water shortages”, Seattle Pi)
Shocked by rising food prices? Get used to it -- and be ready for water shortages, too, says a sweeping new scientific report rounding up likely effects of
climate change on the United States' land, water and farms over the next half-century. Some effects already can be felt, says the report released Tuesday, which
synthesizes results of more than 1,000 individual studies. And it's not just humans' food that's at risk, said witnesses at a congressional field hearing in Seattle
on Tuesday. An intense and sudden acidification of the Pacific resulting from climate change presages a possible breakdown in
the marine food web, experts said at the hearing, headed by Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash. "This is not a problem of tomorrow but a problem
for today," said Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., noting that nearly 10 percent of protein in the human diet is from the oceans. "It just scares the heck out of me."
The U.S. Department of Agriculture report cataloged effects thought by scientists to be likely over the next 25 to 50 years on agriculture, land and water. Even
if greenhouse gas production stopped now, climate change already has been set in motion, said the review by 38 scientists, mostly from the federal
government and universities. The panel included some of the nation's leading climate researchers. "We have already observed the consequences," said David
Schimel of the National Ecological Observatory Network, one of three lead authors. "We have a very clearly observed trend toward earlier snowmelt and more
winter rain, both of which greatly complicate water management." Other early effects, the report said, include the country growing warmer
and wetter over the past century. While the South and East are receiving more rain and snow, the West and Southwest -- with the greatest water
shortages -- are getting less. More and hotter heat waves are occurring. Because of climate disruption of agriculture, consumers can count on
higher food prices, researchers said in a news conference. An example of the kind of crop disruption to expect: This spring's unusually wet weather in
Eastern Washington discouraged bees from flying. That led to fewer cherry trees being fertilized through pollination. Result: A smaller cherry harvest -- and
higher prices. Although not all the effects of climate change will be bad, many seeming pluses actually aren't, the research team said. For example, more
carbon dioxide makes plants grow faster. But, "as they grow quicker, they are generally going to be smaller plants," said Jerry Hatfield, of the Agriculture
Department's Agricultural Research Service. Other results of the study include: Whereas warmer winter temperatures will spare some livestock from
freezing to death, that is likely to be more than offset by deaths in heat waves. Increased fires and infestations of insects no longer killed off by cold winters
could change the face of Western forests. The West's system of capturing runoff from snowmelt is likely to be thrown out of whack by increased winter rains
and higher spring temperatures melting snow faster. Grain crops may benefit from warmer temperatures, growing more quickly -- but could be
endangered by more heat waves or other climate disruptions. Horticultural crops such as tomatoes, onions and fruit are more likely to be
affected than grains.

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Alt Cause – Infrastructure deficiency


Infrastructure issues prevent food acquisition- outweighs prices
Fernquest, BA and MSc Applied Economics, 5/8/08, p.
http://www.readbangkokpost.com/business/agriculture/the_world_bank_on_the_current.php (Jon, “Achieving World Security” The
World Bank)

In the mid-1970s, as rapidly increasing


prices caused a global food crisis, food security emerged as a concept. Attention focused first on food
availability but then quickly moved to food access and food use, and, most recently, to the human right to adequate food. The International
Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights, ratified by 153 states, obligates these states to progressively realise the right to food. The commonly accepted
definition of food security is when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary
needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. For most of the world's malnourished people, the lack of access to food is a greater
problem than food availability. The chronically food insecure never have enough to eat. The seasonally food insecure fall below adequate consumption
levels in the lean season. And the transitory food insecure fall below the food consumption threshold as a result of an economic or natural shock such as a drought,
sometimes with long-lasting consequences. Investments in agriculture are important to increase food security. The channels are complex and multiple. Rising
productivity increases rural incomes and lowers food prices, making food more accessible to the poor. Other investments - such as
improved irrigation and drought-tolerant crops - reduce price and income variability by mitigating the impact of a drought.
Productivity gains are key to food security in countries with a foreign exchange shortage or limited infrastructure to import food.
The same applies to households with poor access to food markets. Nutritionally improved crops give access to better diets, in particular through biofortification that
improves crop nutrient content. The contributions that agriculture makes to food security need to be complemented by medium-term programmes to raise incomes
of the poor, as well as insurance and safety nets, including food aid, to protect the chronic and transitory poor.

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Food Prices toolkit

AT – Food Prices – Human Ingenuity Solves

Human ingenuity solves- people adjust behaviors to scarcity


Cowen, professor of economics at George Mason University, 7/10/08 p.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/06/10/food_prices_commentary/ (Tyler, “Higher food prices won't always
hurt”, American Public Media)

We all know that food prices are rising fast. As a result, people are cutting back on their food expenditures. They're buying fewer luxuries and eating at home more
often. That's the shorter run trend. But here's what's less commonly understood: In the longer run, organic food, luxury foods and fancy restaurants will do
just fine. The economic logic is this: If all food becomes more expensive, what originally looked expensive suddenly appears cheap in
relative terms. Consider a simple example: If food costs nothing to transport, say cheap milk would be $2 and organic milk would be $4. The organic milk costs
twice as much. Now add on a $2 transport cost to each item. The price comparison is then $6 to $4. The organic milk seems only a little more expensive. If you are
going to buy milk in any case, you might even switch to the organic product. Of course at first, people are horrified by the higher prices. They cut back on food costs
across the board, as we've been seeing. We're also in the middle of a recession and that won't last forever. Over time, people will get used to the general idea
that food costs so much. They'll start to think about spending more for the organic milk because, in relative terms, it doesn't seem so
outrageously high. Wealthier families in particular will turn away from Safeway and look toward Whole Foods. Economists refer to this result as the "Alchian and
Allen theorem," named after its two founders Armen Alchian and William Allen, both formerly economists at UCLA. There's a lot of evidence that the theorem
describes actual consumer behavior; it also explains why people tend to spend more when they are on vacation -- because it is not worth flying across the
country to eat at McDonald's. So if food costs stay high, for a lot of people the future will be fresh pasta, caviar and organic tomatoes, not
plain oatmeal and a can of beans.

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AT – Food Prices – Alt Cause population

Alt cause- population growth causes starvation


Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, 5/18/08 p. http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=surging-food-
prices&page=2 (Jeffrey, “Surging Food Prices Mean Global Instability”, The Scientific American)

Several factors are at play in the skyrocketing prices, reflecting both rising global demand and falling supplies of food grains. World
incomes have been rising at around 5 percent annually in recent years, and 4 percent in per capita terms, leading to an increased global
demand for food and for meat as a share of the diet. China’s economic growth, of course, has been double the world’s average. The rising demand for
meat exacerbates the pressures on grain and oil-seed prices since several kilograms of animal feed are required to produce each kilogram of meat. Feed
grains have risen from around 30 percent of total global grain production to around 40 percent today. Land that would otherwise be planted to the main grains is shifting
to soya bean and other oil seeds used for animal feed. It is forecast, for example, that U.S. farmers will cut maize plantings by 8 million acres, while raising soya-bean
production by about the same amount. The grain supply side has also been disrupted by climate shocks, such as Australia’s massive droughts.

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AT – Food prices – Alt Cause Generic


EXPERTS AGREE THAT ETHANOL SUBSIDIES DON’T AFFECT FOOD PRICES MUCH
KHOSLA 08 (Vinod Khosla, an Indian-American venture capitalist. He is an influential personality in Silicon
Valley. He was one of the co-founders of Sun Microsystems and became a general partner of the venture capital
firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers in 1986. “Khosla Speaks,” Forbes, May 21, 2008)

While corn prices certainly have some impact on biofuels, their impact is constantly overstated by
sources like the WSJ. In fact, they would do well to see what the U.S. Department of Agriculture has actually said on the subject. Yesterday, USDA
Chief Economist Joe Glauber noted: "On the international level, the President's Council of Economic
Advisors estimates that only 3% of the more than 40% increase we have seen in world food prices this
year is due to the increased demand on corn for ethanol." As the USDA noted previously: "Given that
foods using corn as an ingredient make up less than a third of retail food spending, overall retail food
prices would rise less than one percentage point per year above the normal rate of food price inflation
when corn prices increase by 50%."

ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS ONLY A PROXIMATE CAUSE OF FOOD PRICES


HOLT-GIMENEZ AND PEABODY 08 (“From Food Rebellions to Food Sovereignty: Urgent call to fix a broken food system”
Posted May 16th, 2008, Eric Holt-Giménez and Loren Peabody, Executive Director, Food First/Institute for Food and Development
Policy)

The immediate reasons for food price inflation include; droughts in major wheat-producing countries in
2005-06, low grain reserves (we have less than 54 days worth, globally); high oil prices; a doubling of per-capita meat
consumption in some developing countries, and the diversion of 5% of the world’s cereals to agrofuels.
Though an increase in agricultural growth is projected for 2008, most experts agree food prices will continue to rise. Drought,
meat diets, low reserves, and agrofuels are only the proximate causes of food price inflation. These factors
do not explain why—in an increasingly productive and affluent global food system—next year up to one
billion people will likely go hungry. To solve the problem of hunger, we need to address the root cause of
the food crisis: the corporate monopolization of the world’s food systems.

There are many reasons for high food prices, not just corn based ethanol
Farm Press, July 30, 2008 (“There's more to high food costs than corn prices,” Farm Press, d/l:
http://southeastfarmpress.com/news_archive/food-corn-0730/)

For one, there are many, many factors contributing to high food prices that are not correlated with high commodity prices. There are
high fuel costs required to transport commodities from the field to end users and high energy costs for processing commodities into
food, etc. And who do you think has to pay actor Sam Elliot to say, “Beef, it’s what’s for dinner.” That’s right, it’s the consumer.
Secondly, while high commodity prices do have some impact on higher food prices, it’s not such a clear cause

AT – Food Prices – Alt Cause generic


Food Prices rise as a direct result of recent weather conditions and high oil prices – ethanol production is only a secondary
cause of rising food prices.

MSNBC 10-2-2007 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21105859/


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WASHINGTON - Increased production of corn-based ethanol has raised U.S. food prices this year but not nearly as much as high oil
prices and weather problems, the head of the Agriculture Department said Tuesday. Acting USDA Secretary Chuck Conner said
ethanol "clearly had some impact" on food price inflation, but the fuel is getting too much of the blame "for what's happening in
grocery store aisles." Heightened ethanol production is a cornerstone of President George W. Bush's energy policy and farmers increased the amount of corn they
planted to feed the fuel frenzy. But more ethanol also helped drive up the prices of livestock feed and other corn-dependent food products. Food prices have increased
about 2.7 percent in each of the last three years. But a jump of between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent is expected this year before retreating a bit to between 3 percent and
4 percent in 2008, Conner said at a conference hosted by the Renewable Fuels Association, which represents the U.S. ethanol industry. Global weather
conditions, including droughts in Australia, as well as rising demand in China and elsewhere drove up wheat prices. And the recent
record highs for retail oil prices also add to inflation by increasing the costs of everything from packaging to transportation, Conner said.
He did not specify how much each factor contributed to rising U.S. food prices.

Rises in food prices caused by Weakening U.S. dollar and greater consumption, Ethanol production is a
marginal culprit
Tim Mitchell, March 8, 2008, http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2008/03/08/weak_dollar_higher_demand_raise_food

CHAMPAIGN – Area agricultural leaders say that a weakening U.S. dollar and more mouths to feed around the
world – not ethanol plants – are largely responsible for the increased prices consumers are paying for food
products. "When you find yourself paying more money for a box of corn flakes at the grocery store, only a few
pennies of that increase came from the price of corn," said former Illinois Farm Bureau President Ron Warfield
of Gibson City

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AT – Food Price – Oil Alt cause


RISING PETROLEUM COSTS ARE THE ROOT CAUSE OF GRAIN PRICE INCREASES
TENENBAUM 08 (David J. Tenenbaum is a Wisconsin-based magazine freelancer who penned four books in Arco’s Toolbox series
for professional builders.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES, “Food vs Fuel: Diversion of Crops Could Cause More
Hunger,” Spheres of Influence, Volume 116, June 2008)

As
Now that food crops can be converted into fuels, a new factor must be consid- ered—the link between the price of food and the price of petroleum.
petroleum fuels get more expensive, biofuels become more profitable; therefore, biofuel pro- ducers can
afford to pay more for their feedstock. According to Brown, this new relation- ship puts hungry people in direct
competi- tion with empty gas tanks. “Historically the food and energy economies have been largely
separate, but now with the con- struction of so many fuel ethanol distil- leries, they are merging,” he says.
“If the food value of grain is less than its fuel value, the market will move the grain into the energy
economy. Thus, as the price of oil rises, the price of grain follows it upward.”

RISING OIL PRICES INCREASE PRICES OF ALL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS


TESLIK 08 (Lee Hudson Teslik, Assistant Editor of CFR.org at the Council on Foreign Relations,[1] and was formerly a
professional speechwriter. Teslik's writings have been published by the Council on Foreign Relations, Newsweek, TIME Europe,
Slate, the Washington Post, and the New York Times.[2] He has written speeches for international political figures and corporate
executives. Teslik graduated from Harvard University, where he wrote for the Harvard Lampoon and was a fellow at Harvard
Magazine,[3] the alumni magazine., June 30, 2008, “Food Prices,” Council on Foreign Relations)

Rising energy prices have direct causal implications for the food market. Fuel is used in several aspects of
the agricultural production process, including fertilization, processing, and transportation. The
percentage of total agricultural input expenditures directed toward energy costs has risen significantly in
recent years. A briefing from the U.S. Department of Agriculture notes that the U.S. agricultural industry’s total expenditures on
fuel and oil are forecast to rise 12.6 percent in 2008, following a rise of 11.5 percent in 2007. These costs are typically
passed along to customers and are reflected in global spot prices (i.e. the current price a commodity trades for at market). The
input costs of electricity have also risen, furthering the burden. Though it isn’t itself an energy product, fertilizer is an energy-intensive expense,
particularly when substantial transport costs are borne by local farmers—so that expense, too, is
reflected in the final price of foodstuffs. (Beyond direct causation, energy prices are also correlated to
food prices, in the sense that many of the same factors pushing up energy prices—population trends, for instance, or
market speculation—also affect food prices.)

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AT – Food Price – Oil Alt cause

The key culprit for food price fluctuation is oil prices and currency rates – not Biofuels

Maureen Groppe, 7/24/2008 Gannett News Service http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2008-07-23-food-


prices_N.htm

WASHINGTON — A diverse and complex set of factors — including biofuels production, high oil prices, a weak dollar and food
consumption rates — are behind the sharply rising cost of food, according to an analysis by Purdue University agricultural economists
released Wednesday. The economists predict food prices will remain high as long as oil prices are also high and the dollar is weak. "Lower
oil and a strong dollar would bring pressure on commodity prices to fall," said economist Wally Tyner, the report's lead author. He also
said the full impact of higher corn and soybean prices haven't shown up in grocery prices yet. The cost of food has increased 7.5% since last year, according to the most
recent government figures available. The U.S. Department of Agriculture says the highest anticipated increases this year are in eggs, dairy and poultry. The
government's explanations for the increases are similar to those identified by Purdue researchers: stronger global demand, increased exports caused by both the stronger
demand and weaker dollar, weather-related production problems and the increased use of corn and other food commodities for bioenergy. The Purdue researchers said
the factors are too interrelated to be able to say how much of the price increase is caused by each factor. But they did breakdown the impact on corn, which has tripled
in price since 2004. The analysts estimated that about $1 of the $4 increase in a bushel of corn is due to the U.S. subsidies of the ethanol industry. The rest was caused
by the increasing price of oil. "There's a link today between crude oil and corn that never existed in the past," Tyner said, calling that a "revolution" in global
agriculture. "Even if all the subsidies go away tomorrow, corn prices will still be high unless we choose to ban the use of corn for ethanol," Tyner said. The biggest pull
comes from increased demand for biofuels as gasoline becomes more expensive. That increases the demand for corn, as well as for petroleum-based items including
fertilizer and diesel that are used to grow commodities. And because oil and agricultural commodities are priced in dollars, the declining value of the dollar has made
them cheaper for other nations, increasing the demand. "The link between the U.S. dollar exchange rate and commodity prices is stronger and
more important than many other studies imply," said Purdue economist Phil Abbott. "Whatever impacts the dollar will influence food
prices."

The rise in Oil prices is the direct cause of the current rise in food prices.

Charles W. Corey, 27 June 2008, Staff Writer, http://www.america.gov/st/foraid-


english/2008/June/20080626154419WCyeroC6.844729e-02.html

Washington -- World prices for oil and food commodities are closely linked, and six key factors are creating a “perfect storm” of conditions that
are boosting prices worldwide, a group of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) economists said June 23. Members of the group who spoke to
America.gov, include Michael J. Dwyer, director and chief economist for the Foreign Agricultural Service; Daniel B. Whitley, deputy director of that office;
and Hui Jiang, a USDA agricultural economist. Normally, Dwyer said, the international system is dynamic enough to handle one or two
simultaneous shocks, but the number of factors in play today “pretty much overwhelms the system’s ability to deal with it, and
prices are spiking sharply higher.” He and his colleagues outlined six factors. First, higher energy prices have led to higher input costs for
pesticides, fertilizers and herbicides (many of which are petroleum-based), higher processing costs and higher costs for
transportation -- which directly affects the cost of food being shipped overseas. “Right now, to ship a ton of corn out of New Orleans to
Asia [costs] about $130,” a dramatic increase from not long ago. “When farmers have to pay more for their fertilizers and other inputs,” Dwyer said, “it means
these higher food prices are not all pure profit to a producer because their costs are up as well.” Dwyer said it is incorrect to single out the current
U.S. biofuels policy, which promotes the conversion of some corn into biofuels, for driving up prices. “A lot of the world press
is covering this issue right now, and it is probably the number one issue in the newspapers around the world. Unfortunately, a
lot of the newspapers have unfairly scapegoated the U.S biofuels policy as the driver behind why corn prices and commodity
prices in general have spiked sharply higher in the last 18 months.

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**Commodities**

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Sugar DA - Ethanol
Uniqueness and Link - Removing sugar subsidies raise feedstock prices for sugar hurting sugar ethanol
production.
Masami Kojima and Todd Johnson October 2005 Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme (ESMAP) Potential for
Biofuels for Transport in Developing Countries

Liberalization of agricultural trade and removal of domestic subsidies and protection, especially in industrial countries,
would induce significant price increases for many agricultural commodities. Among currently used feedstocks for
biofuel manufacture are sugarcane, maize, and soybeans. The world sugar market is one of the most distorted.
Complete trade liberalization, which would dramatically reduce the production of sugar in a number of countries, is
forecast to raise the world price of sugar by about 30–40 percent according to most estimates. This in turn would raise
the cost of ethanol production until supply expansion responds to the much higher world sugar price. The impact on the price
of maize would be smaller, and that on soybeans very small.

Sugar ethanol is key to Brazil’s economy.


CNNMoney.com August 7 2007 http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/06/news/economy/sugarcane_ethanol/index.htm
Meet sugar cane ethanol, a product fueling economic growth in Brazil, a nation that between its oil reserves and the
burgeoning ethanol industry has attained energy self-sufficiency. Brazil has spent billions of dollars over decades of
research to develop the technology to mass produce ethanol from the millions of cane acres that spread along the South
American landscape.

Brazil key to Latin American growth.


Hakim 99- (Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, Winter 1999/2k, “Foreign Policy, Is Latin America Doomed to
Failure,” Academic Search Premier)

Brazil, which accounts for nearly one third of Latin America's population and economic activity, will heavily influence the region's overall
economic performance in the coming years. It is the wild card. True, Brazil's growth throughout the 1990s has been sluggish and will average less than
2.5 percent a year for the decade. Nevertheless, the country succeeded far beyond anyone's expectations in squeezing inflation out
of its economy and quickly recuperating from its recent currency crisis. At this point, there is no telling whether Brazil's economy will
turn up or down. The country's fortunes hinge on the political skills and luck of President Fernando Cardoso and his advisers, who need to manage an unruly
congress and fickle public opinion to keep reform efforts on track. Brazilian politics--fragmented, weakly institutionalized, and driven by local and
regional interests--are a feeble underpinning for a modern economy and society. Yet few Latin American countries can boast
richer political debate on key national issues, a more free and vigorous press, or a stronger trade union movement.

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Sugar DA - Ethanol
Downturn kills to the US economy.
Saavedra 03- (Boris Saavedra, professor, Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies , National Defense University, April 2003.
NDU Working Paper, Confronting Terrorism in Latin America,” http://www.ndu.edu/chds/journal/PDF/2003-0403/Saavedra-
article.pdf)

The United States shares with its Latin American neighbors an increasingly and vitally important financial, commercial,
and security partnership. Any kind of political-economic-social-security deterioration in the region will profoundly
affect the health of the U.S. economy—and the concomitant power to act in the global security arena.

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Sugar Ethanol DA link Extension


Sugar subsidies depress world prices by 40%, liberalization would kill sugar ethanol industries.
Masami Kojima of the Oil, Gas, and Mining Policy Division, World Bank; Donald Mitchell of the Development Prospects Group,
Development Economics, World Bank; and William A. Ward 2007, Professor and Director, Center for International Trade,
Clemson University. 2007 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels

In countries where government provides support to agriculture, biofuel feedstocks are usually beneficiaries of the
subsidies. Among major biofuel producers, maize and soybeans in the United States and sugar beets and rapeseed oil in the European Union are large
recipients of government aid. The global sugar market is among the most distorted, with high protection and price supports to
EU, U.S., and Japanese producers. These policies have been estimated to depress world sugar prices by up to 40 percent
from the levels that would have prevailed under a free market (Mitchell 2004). Trade liberalization would increase world
prices for sugar more than those for all the biofuel feedstocks currently being used commercially, which would have an
adverse impact on ethanol economics.

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Brazil Econ Strong now


Despite failure at Doha, Brazil’s economy is strong now.
Carlos Macias August 1, 2008 . “Dealing without Doha.” http://www.as-coa.org/article.php?id=1182 . Council of the Americas.

For Brazil, the talks’ collapse brings mixed results and expectations for its future. In a Forbes.com Q&A, Global Insight's Jan Randolph counts Brazil as one of
the biggest losers in Doha's failure. On the other hand, Now recognized as a world player, Brazil is experiencing its strongest
economic performance in three decades and has thus far remained fairly insulated from the U.S. credit crisis. The New
York Times profiles Brazil’s recent financial and social growth and highlights its successful development recipe of
respect for open markets combined with targeted social programs.

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Corn Prices low now

CORN PRICES ARE THE LOWEST IN MONTHS AND WILL STAY LOW FOR THE REST OF THE
YEAR
ZHOU 08 (“Corn's recent slump may create buying opportunity,” Moming Zhou, MarketWatch reporter, based
in San Francisco, MarketWatch, July 31, 2008)

"The current correction in corn is nearing one of the best buying opportunities in a very long time," said Shawn Hackett, president of
financial information provider Hackett Financial Advisors. "The next few weeks should be a very fertile time to solidify one's
commitment [to corn] and set the stage for well above average returns." Corn futures for December delivery soared 26% in June to as high as
$7.96 a bushel after the Midwest flooding inundated some crop fields in the Corn Belt. But futures in July erased all the June gains
and dived to $5.63 a bushel on July 23, the lowest since March 23. Recent favorable weather has helped corn's pollination this month
and has put downward pressure on prices. Trading in the past few sessions, however, has seen signs of rebound in corn prices. On
Wednesday, the benchmark contract rose for a fifth day to end at $6.21 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Still, it's about 20%
lower than its all-time high. Some analysts cautioned that corn could stay lower for the rest of the year. See Food Futures. "We have
obviously seen some recovery in corn prices" as some investors decided "that the market was oversold," said Elaine Kub, a grain
analyst at commodities information provider DTN. "But I expect prices to stay near their low until we find something really bullish."

FUND LIQUIDATION IS DRIVING CORN PRICES LOWER


DAVIS 08 (Ryan Davis, Dow Jones Newswires, 8/1/2008, “CBOT Corn Review: Drops Sharply On Weather,
Liquidation”)
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--Chicago Board of Trade corn futures settled sharply lower on continuing fund liquidation and a "non-threatening" weather outlook, traders
September corn closed down 22 1/2 cents to $5.65 per bushel, December corn closed down 22
and analysts said.
1/2 cents to $5.85, and March corn closed down 22 1/2 cents to $6.05. Fund liquidation, which drove
prices substantially lower in late trading Thursday, continued to pressure prices for the duration of
Friday's session. There continues to be "a lot of speculators getting out of the market," said Sid Love, analyst with Kropf and Love consulting. The
market also continues to look beyond the above-average temperatures expected throughout the U.S. corn
belt this weekend to an expected mid-week cooldown starting around Tuesday. "After a couple of days we're going to turn this (heat) around and see another frontal
system come, provide some moisture, and cool things off again," said Dale Durchholz, analyst for AgriViser. "And then, overall, you're sitting here looking to August
going 'there is no weather problem.'" The prospect of plentiful rain next week across portions of the corn belt is further pressuring the market, traders and analysts said.
you've got this attitude that is pretty pervasive in the trade right now that we're going to have a
"So,
reasonably good corn crop," said Durchholz. There are "a lot of people" now projecting average yields at 152 bushels per acre or higher, he said. The
U.S. Department of Agriculture is currently predicting an average yield of 148.4 bushels per acre. New yield projections will be released in a USDA Aug. 12 crop
production report. That report is seen as the first concrete indication of the effects of June flooding throughout the U.S. Midwest.

THE LATEST REPORT SHOW THAT CORN PRICES ARE DECREASING


AP 08 (Aug 1, 2008, “Agriculture futures trade mostly lower on CBOT”)

Agriculture futures mostly traded lower Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade. Wheat for September delivery rose
10.25 cents to $7.94 a bushel; December corn fell 22.5 cents to $5.85 a bushel; December oats dropped 9.5 cents to $3.875 a bushel;
November soybeans declined 39 cents to $13.65 a bushel. Beef futures traded higher and pork futures traded mixed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

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Corn Prices low now

WEATHER FORECASTS CAUSED A SHARP DECREASE IN CORN PRICES


JACOBS 08 (“Corn, soybeans decline on Midwest rain forecast,” STEVENSON JACOBS, August 1, 2008,
Associated Press)

Corn and soybean prices fell sharply Friday as forecasts for rainfall in the steamy Midwest boosted
expectations of good crop development and lessened supply concerns. Other commodities traded mixed, with crude oil
rebounding slightly and gold, silver and copper prices turning lower. Showers are expected in parts of the Midwest next week,
offering relief to dry corn and soybean crops as farmers prepare for the important fall harvest. The crops
have been recovering well after the worst flooding in 15 years ravaged the U.S. Corn Belt in June, raising
hopes of a robust 2008 yield. "It will be difficult to rally prices in corn or beans as long as the weather
remains bearish," Vic Lespinasse, of Grainanalyst.com, said in a note. Corn futures for December delivery fell 22.5 cents, or
3.7 percent, to settle at $5.85 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after earlier falling to $5.82. Soybeans
for November delivery dropped 39 cents, or 2.78 percent, to settle at $13.65 a bushel on the CBOT. Meanwhile, September wheat futures ended higher, adding 10 cents
Corn and soybean prices soared to record levels after the June floods wiped out
to $7.94 a bushel on the CBOT.
thousands of acres of Midwest farmland. Prices have eased in recent weeks as warm, dry conditions
return to the region.

CORN PRICES HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECLINING, INCREASING INVESTMENTS MEANS CORN
PRICES HAVE STABILIZED.
ZHOU 08 (Moming Zhou, MarketWatch Staff writer, “Corn, soybeans rise as dollar edges lower” July 28,
2008, http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/corn-soybeans-rise-dollar-
edges/story.aspx?guid=%7B303E75A8-14CF-40AD-804B-B150FF6221C5%7D&dist=msr_4)

Corn remains nearly $2 lower than its record high hit last month. It fell nearly 6% last week and has
slumped 20% this month. "We have obviously seen some recovery in corn prices" as some investors decided "that
the market was oversold," said Elaine Kub, a grain analyst at commodities information provider DTN. "But I expect prices to stay near their
low until we find something really bullish." Corn ended last week's trading at $5.97 a bushel, the lowest since April
1. "To say that we have seen some extreme selling behavior in commodities over the last several weeks
is a gross understatement," said Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors. Corn and a few other commodities "have been the poster
children for irrational selling extremes."

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CORN PRICES LOW NOW

CORN PRICES CONTINUE TO DECLINE FROM THEIR JUNE HIGH; STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED.
JUNE WAS AN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCE, FARMS ARE BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM THE
JUNE NATURAL DISASTERS.
ILLINOIS FARM BUREAU 08 (Illinois Farm Bureau, Prairie Farmer newsletter, Grain Prices Continue to
Weaken; Still Not Stable, July 28, 2008,
http://prairiefarmer.com/index.aspx?ascxid=fpStory&fpsid=35035&fpstid=2)

Corn and soybean prices continue to weaken, but could settle into a more "sideways" pattern as
production prospects unfold, according to University of Illinois Marketing Specialist Darrel Good. "Still,
large daily price movements can be expected," says Good. December 2008 corn futures increased about $2 per bushel during the month of June, topping
"Much of the
out just under $8. During the same period, November 2008 soybean futures rallied more than $3, topping out just under $16.37.
June rally was related to weather conditions in the United States as excessive rainfall threatened
acreage and yield in a wide area over the Midwest," he notes. "That weather pattern followed a generally wet, cool May that
resulted in late planting and slow emergence in some areas." He adds that soybean prices were also supported by a
generally strong export pace. USDA export estimates indicate that soybean exports during June totaled about 57 million bushels, compared to about 45
million in June 2007. Continued strong demand by China and interruptions in exports from Argentina
contributed to the large June exports. "Prices of both crops turned lower in July," Good notes. "Corn
prices have been pressured by a combination of larger-than-expected acreage estimates released by the
USDA on June 30, improving crop conditions, and lower crude oil prices." As of July 13, the USDA estimated that 64%
of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition, equal to the rating of a year ago. Lower crude oil prices have resulted in lower prices for ethanol.
The average price of ethanol at Iowa plants declined from $2.82 per gallon on July 3 to $2.57 per gallon
on July 18. At the close of overnight trade on July 21, December 2008 corn futures settled $1.74 below the contract high. Soybean prices have not
declined as sharply as corn prices. "While December 2008 futures are down by more than 20% from the contract high, November 2008 soybean futures
at $14.40 are down 12% from the contract high," Good says. "Soybean prices have been a little more resilient because of the uncertainty about Argentine
For corn, the drop in ethanol prices over the past two
exports and because of more concern about U.S. crop conditions."
weeks has been more than offset by the decline in corn prices, he notes

CORN PRICES CONTINUE TO DECLINE FROM THEIR $8 HIGHS, PROJECTED THUNDERSTORMS


LEAVE ROOM FOR CONTINUED GROWTH.
ZHOU 08 (Moming Zhou, MarketWatch Staff writer “Corn, soybeans fall on weather concerns; wheat up”,
Aug. 1, 2008, http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/corn-soybeans-fall-weather-
concerns/story.aspx?guid=%7B0A594601%2D325C%2D4A11%2DB90B%2D0598C1D5B131%7D&dist=mor
enews)

Corn futures for December delivery slumped 22.5 cents, or 3.7%, to end at $5.85 a bushel on the
Chicago Board of Trade, and November soybeans lost 39 cents, or 2.8%, to $13.65 a bushel. Thunderstorms were forecast to
move into the Midwest, according to Accuweather.com, and bring with them rains that will give crop
growth in the major corn-producing area a major boost. Both corn and soybeans are planted in spring and
harvested in fall. "There is no shortage of speculative market bears, who continue to interpret the
generally favorable weather as a sign that yields could still match trend-line projections," said Elaine Kub, a
grain analyst at commodities research firm DTN. Corn prices are now 25% lower than their record high near $8 hit last
month. Some analysts said that corn's recent fall has created buying opportunities for the commodity.

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Corn Price link


Subsidies keep corn prices low.
Masami Kojima of the Oil, Gas, and Mining Policy Division, World Bank; Donald Mitchell of the Development Prospects Group,
Development Economics, World Bank; and William A. Ward 2007, Professor and Director, Center for International Trade,
Clemson University. 2007 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels

The United States has a variety of government policies that support domestic producers of maize and prevent world market price signals from being
transmitted to farmers (OECD 2006a), even though the United States is among the lowest cost producers of maize net of subsidies. These policies
encourage maize farmers to produce even when world market prices are depressed and keep global maize stocks high
and prices low. Removing all import tariffs and farm support programs would result in an estimated increase in
average world maize prices of 5.7 percent and an increase in maize trade of 4.5 percent (Fabiosa and others 2003). This relatively small impact on
prices and trade is due to the fact that much of the land devoted to maize production would likely remain dedicated to maize even without government policies,
thereby maintaining supply levels. The main impact would be a drop in farm land prices.

Rising corn prices rapidly increase food insecurity.


Masami Kojima of the Oil, Gas, and Mining Policy Division, World Bank; Donald Mitchell of the Development Prospects Group,
Development Economics, World Bank; and William A. Ward 2007, Professor and Director, Center for International Trade,
Clemson University. 2007 Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Considering Trade Policies for Liquid Biofuels

Rising prices of maize—and potentially of cassava, which is also an ethanol feedstock— would be a concern for the world’s poor, most
of whom are net food purchasers. Maize is the preferred staple food of more than 1.2 billion people in Latin America
and Africa (Global Crop Diversity Trust 2006). Cassava provides one-third of the caloric needs in sub-Saharan Africa and is the primary staple for more
than 200 million poor people. It is also a reserve when other crops fail. A study at the University of Minnesota estimated that, for every
percentage increase in the real prices of staple foods, the number of foodinsecure people in the world would rise by
more than 16 million (Runge and Senauer 2007).

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AT: IOWA LOSS


IOWA CROP LOSSES ARE FAR LESS THAN EXPECTED AND WON’T AFFECT PRICES MUCH
CLAYWORTH 08 (“Expert: Iowa's crop loss less severe than assessed,” By JASON CLAYWORTH, July 31,
2008, Des Moines Register)

Iowa's crop losses from floods are far less than first estimated, and statewide a decent harvest is in the works, a grain expert told an
agriculture task force Wednesday. The hits are still significant, but some of the hurt has been reduced by replanting, said Chad Hart, an
economics professor at Iowa State University who works closely with ISU Extension. Depending on factors such as how early it frosts or if additional
disasters take place, Iowa is in line to harvest about 93 percent of the corn planted and 95 percent of soybeans, Hart told the Rebuild Iowa
Commission's Agriculture and Environment Task Force. On June 20, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey estimated that 20 percent of
corn and 10 percent of soybeans had been destroyed due to flooding. Total loss then was estimated at 3.3 million acres and $3.3
billion. On Wednesday, Hart, using numbers from the National Agriculture Statistics Service, estimated that 560,000 acres of corn
and more than 400,000 acres of soybeans were lost. In total, Iowa farmers planted 13.7 million acres of corn and 9.4 million acres of soybeans, he
said. His numbers exclude fields that have been replanted, which probably explains the contrasts with earlier reports, Hart told task force members. "The point
is, Iowa statewide could have a good crop," he said. Hart noted that yield estimates are not yet available. Some farmers may see diminished yields
largely because of late planting, he said. Northey said he believes Wednesday's estimates are accurate. He cautioned, however, that the overall picture should not
overlook the situations of some farmers who lost all or substantial portions of their crops. Nonetheless, the outlook is much better than earlier in the
year, and those expectations are the reasons corn prices have dropped by nearly $2 a bushel in recent weeks, Northey said Wednesday.
Corn is now around $5.50 a bushel, while soybeans are around $14 a bushel, down from a high this year of around $16.50.

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CORN PRICES ARE DECREASING BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH BECAUSE OF ETHANOL
DEMAND
REUTERS 08 (“U.S. ethanol distillers profit for third week,” Aug 2, 2008,
http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN0150758720080801)

NEW YORK, Aug 1 (Reuters) -Average margins for making U.S. ethanol have been narrowly profitable for the
third week running, but slipped slightly this week on stronger corn prices, analysts said. U.S. distillers
were making about 15 cents per gallon this week for every gallon of ethanol, down about 10 cents from
last week, analysts said. Most ethanol in the United States is made from corn. September corn futures CU8 on the Chicago Board
of Trade closed at nearly $5.88 a bushel on Thursday, up nearly 15 cents from the previous week.
Ethanol maker Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc (AVR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) reported this week that its
corn costs during the second quarter rose to $5.38 a bushel, compared with $3.99 a bushel last year.
Aventine reported a net loss of $1.9 million on the quarter due to losses on investment securities. At least
corn prices have fallen sharply since spiking above $7 per bushel during the worst floods in the Midwest
in 15 years in June. But global grain demand has kept the corn price from falling too far, making it
difficult for all but the most efficient distillers to profit this year.

CORN PRICES WILL INCREASE NEXT YEAR BECAUSE OF FERTILIZER COST


SHUMAKER 08 (“U.S. crop production costs to rise one-third in 2009,” Jul 28, 2008, Lisa Shumaker)

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. farmers will have to spend roughly 30 percent more next spring to plant corn and
soybeans due to soaring energy prices driving up the cost of fertilizer, according to a University of Illinois
study. As a result, consumers will likely pay higher prices for everything from bread to milk to meat. The cost to plant corn next spring will
be $529 per acre, up 36 percent from 2008 and up 85 percent from the five-year average $286 per acre,
said Gary Schnitkey, an agricultural economist who conducts the annual survey of expenses excluding land costs. At $321 an acre, soybean
input costs are projected to rise by 34 percent from 2008 and more than 78 percent from the 2003-2007 average of $180 an acre. Assuming cash-rent fees of $200 an
acre, the study projects a break-even price of $3.82 a bushel for corn in central Illinois, based on an average yield of 191 bushels an acre. Soybeans would break even at
$9.65 a bushel, based on yields of 54 bushels per acre. Schnitkey predicts 2009 prices significantly above break-even prices.
Based on futures markets,
corn should sell for about $6 a bushel next year, with soybeans in the $13 to $14 range, he said. Corn, soybean and wheat
prices at the Chicago Board of Trade hit record highs this year amid increased global demand for food,
rising oil prices and government mandates for biofuels.

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Wheat Price DA Impact - Pakistan


FAILURE TO CONTAIN THIS CRISIS WILL LEAD TO PAKISTAN INSTABILITY AND THE
COLLAPSE OF ITS DEMOCRACY.
South Asia Investor Review 08. 2-26, South Asia Investor Review is focused on reporting, analyzing and discussing the economy and the
financial markets of countries in South Asia, including Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Riaz Haq. “Another Wheat Crisis Looms for Pakistan.”

Triggered by wheat export curbs by Kazakhstan and the lowest world inventory in 26 years, wheat price hit a new record at $25
per bushel or about $900 per ton. This translates into Pakistan Rs. 55 per kilo for raw wheat in bulk excluding transportation, milling and bagging.
It represents a 400% increase in less than a year. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service, Kazakhstan
is the sixth-largest exporter of wheat, behind the U.S., Canada, Russia, Argentina and the European Union. Kazakhstan is in the belt of wheat production that
stretches from Ukraine through southern Russia. It already has exported nearly seven million tons of grain, of the available 10 million tons from the 2007-08
crop, Agriculture Minister Akhmetzhan Esimov said. " Former Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz announced in Sept, 2007 that the Pakistani government would
import one million tons of wheat, stating that this action was necessary to “maintain a reasonable buffer stock for the future.” The export price for Pakistani
wheat during the April-May export window was approximately $225-232 per ton. For December 2007 delivery, Pakistan is now looking at an estimated import
price of $380-400 per ton, exclusive of transportation." Well, here we are in February 2008 and the price of wheat has more than doubled yet again since Dec,
2007. In fact, the inflation of wheat prices now exceeds all other commodities including oil, gold, metals etc. Like most
developing nations, the average person in Pakistan has very low discretionary spending, with the bulk of his or her
income spent on food, clothing and shelter. The dramatic increases in commodity prices, particularly food, is very
troubling for the vast majority of populations living in the developing countries such as Pakistan, India, China and the
African nations. The exceptions, of course, are the nations with their own significant production of food and fuel and other natural resources. The nations
producing and exporting food, fuel, and metals actually benefit from this trend of higher commodity prices. The incoming government in
Pakistan will face a very difficult challenge in containing tremendous inflationary pressures on basic commodities such
as food and fuel. A failure in this effort can lead to significant instability and has the potential to threaten the future of
democracy in Pakistan.

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Wheat prices high now


The high price of wheat is getting higher
The New York Times 08’ In Price and Supply, Wheat Is the Unstable Staple By DAVID STREITFELD Published: February 13, 2008
(http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/business/13wheat.html)
CHICAGO — For decades, wheat was a commodity no American needed to think much about, except the farmers who grew it.
The grain was usually plentiful and prices were low. All of a sudden, those assumptions have been turned upside down. With
demand soaring abroad and droughts crimping supply, the world’s wheat stockpiles have fallen to their lowest level in 30 years,
and stocks in the United States have dropped to levels unseen since 1948. Prices have been gyrating in recent days as traders
tried to figure out what to make of the situation. On Tuesday, prices for a sought-after variety, spring wheat, jumped to $16.73 a
bushel on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, the latest of several records. Prices for common wheat are up nearly 50 percent
since August, and they are up even more for the most sought-after varieties, leaving buyers, growers and longtime commodity
traders shaking their heads. “Anyone who tells you they’ve seen something like this is a liar,” said Vince Boddicker of the
Farmers Trading Company in Mitchell, S.D. Though this week’s prices were nominal records, the inflation-adjusted record for
wheat was set in the mid-1970s, when it exceeded $20 a bushel in today’s dollars after huge sales to the Soviet Union. Foreign
buying is driving this market, too, but these buyers include South Korea, Taiwan, Mexico, Nigeria and Venezuela. Economic
growth abroad has given people the means to improve their diets, and they are developing a taste for products made from
wheat. “We haven’t hit a price that has slowed the international interest,” said Joe Victor of the commodity research firm
Allendale. “That is something that definitely has the market excited.” Among the consequences are stretched wallets at home
and abroad as food processors pass along higher costs.

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Wheat price low


Wheat prices lowering now.
American Fuels 08’ What has happened to the price of wheat? May 14, 2008
(http://www.americanfuels.info/2008/05/what-has-happened-to-price-of-wheat.html)
Quietly, with little or no fanfare, over the last two months the price of wheat has gone down. So quiet in fact that I doubt
anyone has noticed. I know I hadn't until I saw this small quote in a recent article . Over the winter, wheat prices soared to nearly
$13 a bushel, but lately they have dropped below $8. With soybeans still high, that could be another factor pushing some
farmers away from planting corn, Mr. Reed said. As soon as I saw it I went over to the Chicago Board of Trade and started
looking for numbers. And as this chart of wheat futures shows wheat topped $13 per bushel in the middle of March and is now
trading at less than $8 per bushel. So the big question is, have the retail prices for things made from wheat, such as bread gone
down any? Well, according to the Department of Labor, it hasn't. The average price for a pound of white bread in March was
$1.350 and for April it was $1.373. So the months of being told that ethanol production was leading to higher wheat costs as
farmers switched from growing wheat to growing corn for ethanol (which didn't happen see here) has lead to bakers being able to
keep bread prices high even though wheat prices have fallen without anyone questioning it.

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High Wheat  instability


WHEAT PRICES ARE DESTABILIZING GOVERNMENTS AND IGNITING STREET RIOTS. THE
DISTURBED SUPPLY AND DEMAND IS SNOWBALLING INTO CIVIL TURMOIL IN 14
COUNTRIES. THE WHEAT CRISIS AFFECTS ECONOMIC GROWTH, SOCIAL PROGRESS, AND
POLITICAL SECURITY AROUND THE WORLD.

Washington Post. 2008, April 27. “The New Economics of Hunger: a brutal convergence of events has hit an
unprepared global market, and grain prices are sky high. The world’s poor suffer most.” Anthony Faiola.

The food price shock now roiling world markets is destabilizing governments, igniting street riots and threatening to send a
new wave of hunger rippling through the world's poorest nations. It is outpacing even the Soviet grain emergency of 1972-75, when world food prices rose 78
percent. By comparison, from the beginning of 2005 to early 2008, prices leapt 80 percent, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture
Organization. Much of the increase is being absorbed by middle men -- distributors, processors, even governments -- but consumers worldwide are still
feeling the pinch. The convergence of events has thrown world food supply and demand out of whack and snowballed into
civil turmoil. After hungry mobs and violent riots beset Port-au-Prince, Haitian Prime Minister Jacques-Édouard
Alexis was forced to step down this month. At least 14 countries have been racked by food-related violence. In Malaysia,
Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi is struggling for political survival after a March rebuke from voters furious
over food prices. In Bangladesh, more than 20,000 factory workers protesting food prices rampaged through the streets
two weeks ago, injuring at least 50 people. To quell unrest, countries including Indonesia are digging deep to boost food subsidies. The U.N.
World Food Program has warned of an alarming surge in hunger in areas as far-flung as North Korea and West Africa. The crisis, it fears, will plunge more
than 100 million of the world's poorest people deeper into poverty, forced to spend more and more of their income on skyrocketing food bills. "This
crisis
could result in a cascade of others . . . and become a multidimensional problem affecting economic growth, social
progress and even political security around the world," U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said. Prices for some crops --
such as wheat -- have already begun to descend off their highs. As farmers rush to plant more wheat now that profit prospects have climbed, analysts predict
that prices may come down as much as 30 percent in the coming months. But that would still leave a year-over-year price hike of 45 percent. Few believe
prices will go back to where they were in early 2006, suggesting that the world must cope with a new reality of more expensive food.

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High Wheat  Famine


HIGH WHEAT PRICES THREATEN THE SURVIVAL OF 1 BILLION OF THE WORLD’S POOREST
PEOPLE.

Washington Post. 2008, April 27. “The New Economics of Hunger: a brutal convergence of events has hit an
unprepared global market, and grain prices are sky high. The world’s poor suffer most.” Anthony Faiola.

People worldwide are coping in different ways. For the 1 billion living on less than a dollar a day, it is a matter of survival. In a
mud hut on the Sahara's edge, Manthita Sou, a 43-year-old widow in the Mauritanian desert village of Maghleg, is confronting
wheat prices that are up 67 percent on local markets in the past year. Her solution: stop eating bread. Instead, she has
downgraded to cheaper foods, such as sorghum, a dark grain widely consumed by the world's poorest people. But sorghum has
jumped 20 percent in the past 12 months. Living on the 50 cents a day she earns weaving textiles to support a family of three,
her answer has been to cut out breakfast, drink tea for lunch and ration a small serving of soupy sorghum meal for family
dinners. "I don't know how long we can survive like this," she said.

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High Wheat kills economy


Rising wheat prices hurt the economy
Steffy 08’ Houston Chronicle (http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/steffy/5583879.html)
Wheat is acting like the new oil. On Wednesday, contracts for May delivery reached a record of $13.50 on the Chicago Board of Trade. Though prices
retreated at week's end, the world's pre-eminent grain rose more than 25 percent last month, the biggest such increase since 1973, according to
Bloomberg News. Like oil, wheat prices are being driven by global demand, a shortage of supply and a weak dollar. Call it flaxen gold. Also like oil,
higher prices for wheat and other edible commodities can rattle our already shaky economy.

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Wheat shortage temporary


Wheat shortages are temporary and have no long term impact
The New York Times 08’ In Price and Supply, Wheat Is the Unstable Staple By DAVID STREITFELD Published: February 13, 2008 (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/business/13wheat.html)
Few farmers have enough wheat on hand to take advantage of the recent increases, the trader said. Most sold last fall for prices
that seemed good at the time. The United States Department of Agriculture’s 10-year forecast, released Tuesday, sees the wheat
shortage as temporary. Stockpiles were predicted to fall this year to 312 million bushels, from 456 million bushels, before
rebounding to about 700 million bushels by the end of the decade. Higher prices “will encourage additional acreage and
production,” the report said. Wheat plantings will rise to 65 million acres in the 2008-9 season, from 60.4 million this year, the
Agriculture Department said, though it predicted the number would then fall because of competition from other crops.

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Rice Prices low now


Rice prices are controlled by dollar prices due to a speculator hedging strategy

The Associated Press, June 12, 2008, http://www.wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=1421135

NEW YORK (AP) - Rice futures fell Thursday as a stronger dollar encouraged selling from investors who bought
commodities as a hedge against inflation. The dollar ticked higher against the 15-nation euro Thursday after the Commerce Department
reported a jump in retail sales, boosted by tax rebate checks. The euro fell to $1.5452, down from $1.5571 in New York late Wednesday. A stronger dollar
typically leads investors to sell commodities, which are viewed as hedges against inflation. A rising
greenback aslso makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. Rough rice futures for
September delivery fell 6.5 cents to $18.69 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade, after earlier falling as low as $18.55.

Rice futures are Stable With a mixed ending for the month of July

Commodity Online, 2008-07-10, http://www.commodityonline.com/news/CBOT-wheat-falls-rice-ends-mixed-


10328-3-1.html

NEW YORK: Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures sagged on expectations for a bearish increase in US carryout and production, with the markets keeping
an eye on weak corn futures. However, Rice futures ended mixed on the CBOT, with July higher but all other contracts lower on
speculative selling. CBOT September wheat shed 10.75c to $8.2575 per bushel. Kansas City Board of Trade September wheat dropped 8.75c to $8.5250,
and Minneapolis Grain Exchange September wheat slipped 2c to $8.83. July rice, which is trading without limits because it is in delivery,
was up 62c at $20.31 per hundredweight. September rice was down 16c to $17.91, and November rice was down 18c to
$18.19.

Regardless of speculation, Rice prices will fall due to a good harvest


Dhaka July 22, 2008 The New Nation : Bangladeshs Independent News Source
http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2008/07/22/news0284.htm
Rice price in the international market is bound to fall in the wake of a good harvest, said economist and
BRAC Executive Director Dr Mahabub Hossain. He told BSS that as only seven per cent of the total
global output goes into the international market the high prices caused by speculation by one or two
countries should be difficult to sustain particularly in the wake of a good harvest in the last season.

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Rice Price low now


Rice prices poised to fall more due to an increase of Vietnamese rice on the world market

WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSIRI & PHUSADEE ARUNMAS, Thursday June 26, 2008, Bangkok Post,
http://www.bangkokpost.com/260608_Business/26Jun2008_biz49.php

Rice prices are expected to fall next month as the second June-July crops from Thailand and Vietnam are
har_dhvested and brought to market, warn traders. Baht weakness could also add pressure to prices, said Chookiat Ophaswongse,
president of the Rice Exporters Association. The Thai government is predicting a harvest of 7.6 million tonnes of paddy
rice from the June-July crop this year, compared with only four million tonnes last year. Vietnam is also looking at
higher-than-expected output this year, allowing it to export as much as 4.5 million tonnes, in line with its shipments in 2007. With such a large flood of rice
expected next month and demand drying up, traders expect prices of the staple could fall to $700 a tonne in Thailand, the level at which the government has
pledged to step in and buy from farmers. Rather than sell at a loss, Thai exporters or the government are likely to build up massive stockpiles of milled rice, which
can last in silos for up to five years, experts say. Malaysia bought 200,000 tonnes of Thai rice in May, but its Agriculture Minister said on Monday talks to buy
another 300,000 tonnes had been put on hold since Kuala Lumpur's stocks had doubled to 180,000 tonnes. Last week, the Philippines, the world's biggest buyer,
''Foreign market activities are now
also signalled it had completed its purchases for the year with a deal for 600,000 tonnes struck with Vietnam.
a bit quiet. Buyers are holding their orders back as they expect prices to fall further next month due to
increasing supply,'' said Mr Chookiat. He forecast that rice prices should fall further after Vietnam cut its minimum price for shipments by 2.5% to $780
per tonne from last week's $800 due to slowing export demand. The cut came shortly after Hanoi lifted an export ban on rice this month.

Rice Wholesale Prices are Down, which will lower rice retail prices

Malaysian national news agency (Bernama), August 01, 2008,


http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news.php?id=350066

The price of several grades of imported rice has gone down between nine and 25 percent from Friday. Padi
Beras Nasional Berhad (Bernas) managing director Bakry Hamzah in a statement today, said the wholesale
price of Thai white rice with 5 percent broken grains and Vietnamese rice (5 percent) was now fixed at
RM2,400 per tonne compared to RM3,200 previously. He said the price of Thai glutinous rice (10 percent) was now at RM2,600 per
tonne from RM3,000 previously, and Thai Hom Mali white rice AAA grade at RM3,550 per tonne from RM4,000. Thai Hom Mali grade A rice is now selling at
RM3,450 per tonne compared to RM3,900 before, and Pakistan basmathi PK-385 and D98 at RM5,000 per tonne from RM5,500 previously. According to
Bakry, the wholesale prices of the various grades of rice were reduced following the fall by 25 percent in the
world market price of white rice. Recently, Bernas announced the reduction in the price of fragrant white rice and glutinous rice by 15 percent and
12 percent respectively, besides the price of other grades of rice following changes in the world market price. Bakry said the reduced wholesale
prices of rice were expected to also bring down the retail prices. "The price stability will also encourage local rice millers to
produce Super Special grade local rice (5 percent) and help ensure sufficient supply of this grade of rice in the market," he added in the statement.

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Rice Price low now

Rice prices are controlled by Dollar exchange rates NOT Speculators, a strengthening
dollar will lead to a drop in rice prices.

Steve H. Hanke, June 2008, Globe Asia, .Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at The
Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9472

From the Middle Ages onwards, the fear of deficient harvests in England and France immediately produced
pamphlets attacking hoarders and speculators for driving up prices. ….. With rice prices soaring, the public's
ire about speculators has risen – just as it did in the days of old. No current-day politicians have matched Vladimir Ilyich Lenin,
who told the Petrograd Soviet that "until we apply terror to speculators – shooting on the spot – we won't get anywhere." That said, India's government
has taken to shuttering commodity futures exchanges to protect the public from the sky-high prices caused
by speculators. Interestingly, many commodities whose prices have surged such as tungsten and cobalt are
closely held and don't trade on futures exchanges. Never mind. As Condorcet, Turgot and Smith might have
said, what nonsense. If it's not the speculators, then what is causing rice prices to surge? The rice price
problem (and that of other commodities) is largely a dollar problem. The fall in the dollar relative to gold
has forced a massive increase in the world price of rice and other commodities. David Ranson and I have
constructed the accompanying chart that illustrates the way that the price of rice responds to changes in the
price of gold. The monthly history of the gold price for the past six decades is divided into three categories, according to the degree of the gold price change
in the initial month. The evolution of the price of rice over the following year is then plotted. It's clear that changes in the dollar's price have
accounted for the lion's share of the changes in rice prices historically. Today is no different. It's time to stop
blaming the speculators and start pointing a finger at the weak dollar

Speculators have no effect on the Rice Market, Rice price surges are controlled only by Government
actions

STEVE H. HANKE and DAVID RANSON, June 10, 2008, WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA, Steve H.
Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a
Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121304377448658293.html?mod=relevancy,

Politicians have been quick to blame private speculators and hoarders for sky-high rice prices but, as usual,
the wrong culprits have been fingered. The most recent rice-price spike resulted from government actions. A
host of countries – including China, India, Egypt and Vietnam – imposed restrictions and bans on exports.
These restrictions promised to further dry up what was already an anemic international trade in rice. Add to
this the desire of other governments – including Malaysia and the Philippines, the world's largest rice
importer – to bulk up their stockpiles in the face of food security concerns and you have a deadly one-two
punch: restricted supply and burgeoning demand. It's no surprise rice prices surged.

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Rice Price DA
Rice prices are currently stable, even though they’re holding at dangerously high levels.

Press Information Bureau 08 ( July 30th, “Wheat and Sugar Prices Generally Stable Last Week OTHER FOOD
COMMODITIES SHOW MIXED TREND” http://pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=40808)

13:13 IST Retail


prices of farm commodities monitored by the Department of Consumer Affairs at different
locations have generally remained steady or shown mixed trend over the week ending July 25, 2008. Prices of wheat
remained steady at all reporting centers except an increase at Lucknow. Prices of sugar remained steady at all the reporting centers except for an increase at
Delhi and Mumbai and decrease at Bhubaneshwar and Bangalore. Prices of gram dal remained steady at all the reporting centers except for an increase at
Delhi, Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati and Chennai and decrease at Mumbai and Thiruvanthapuram. Prices of tur dal remained steady at all reporting centers except
for an increase at Lucknow, Bhubaneshwar, Bangalore, Chennai and Thiruvananthapuram and decreased at Delhi and Mumbai. In Delhi, prices of rice,
sugar, and groundnut oil held steady for one week. Price of vanaspati held steady for one month. Prices of wheat, atta, milk and salt
held steady during the last six months. Prices of gram dal, tur dal, tea, potato and onion increased while the price of mustard oil decreased. PSUs have
contracted to import about 1.4 million tonnes of pulses of which about 1.22 million tonnes has arrived and 1.10 million tonnes has been disposed till date. The
pulses being imported include urad, moong, tur and yellow peas. MP: CP: prices (30.7.2008)

U.S. Rice subsidies not only provide rice farmers in the U.S. with 75% of their annual income but
actually keep the currently astronomically high price down. Ending rice subsidies would actually push
global prices even higher.

Griswold 06 (Daniel, “Grain Drain: The Hidden Cost of U.S. Rice Subsidies”, Nov. 16th. Daniel Griswold is the director of the
Cato Institute’s Center for Trade Policy Studies.)

Rice is the world’s most important food commodity and also the most protected and subsidized. Tariffs, tariff-
rate quotas, escalating barriers to processed rice, production and export subsidies, and state monopoly trading enterprises are common. Worldwide, tariffs on
rice imports average 43 percent, and border protection and production subsidies
account for three-quarters of income for rice
farmers in wealthier countries. The U.S. rice program is no exception. The U.S. government supports domestic rice production through tariffs on
imported rice and direct taxpayer subsidies based on production, prices, and historical acreage. Those programs make rice one of the most heavily supported
commodities in the United States, with ramifications for U.S. taxpayers and consumers and rice producers abroad. Americans pay for the rice
program three times over—as taxpayers, as consumers, and as workers. Direct taxpayer subsidies to the rice sector have
averaged $1 billion a year since 1998 and are projected to average $700 million a year through 2015. Tariffs on imported rice drive up prices for consumers,
and the rice program imposes a drag on the U.S. economy generally through a misallocation of resources. Rice payments tend to be concentrated among a
small number of large producers. Globally, U.S. policy drives down prices for rice by 4 to 6 percent. Those lower prices, in turn,
perpetuate poverty and hardship for millions of rice farmers in developing countries, undermining our broader interests and our standing in the world. The U.S.
program also leaves the United States vulnerable to challenges in the World Trade Organization. For our own national interest, the U.S. Congress and the
president should work together to adopt a more marketoriented rice program in the upcoming 2007 farm bill, including repeal of tariffs and a rapid phaseout of
subsidies.

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Rice Price DA
Higher rice prices would cause government collapse, resource wars, the starvation of millions and the
imminent slaughter of entire populations through forced starvation.

Axis Of Logic 08 (4/15, Bill Van Auken, “Amid mounting food crisis, governments fear revolution of the hungry”
http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_26538.shtml Bill Van Auken (born 1950) is a politician and activist for the Socialist
Equality Party and was a presidential candidate in the U.S. election of 2004)

Last week’s meetings in Washington of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Group of Seven were convened in the shadow of the worst
financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. While Wall Street’s turmoil and the deepening credit crunch dominated discussions, leaders of the
global financial institutions were forced to take note of the growing global food emergency, warning of the threat of widespread hunger and already emerging
political instability. The seven major capitalist powers in the G-7 (the US, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada) made virtually no mention of
the global food crisis, referring in only one brief reference to the risk of “high oil and commodity prices.” Instead, they focused on the stability of the financial
markets, promising measures to shore up investor confidence. The IMF and World Bank, however, felt compelled to acknowledge the emerging worldwide
catastrophe, in part because while these agencies are instruments of the main imperialist powers, they must posture as responsive to the needs of all countries.
It would be too revealing for them to focus exclusively on the fate of major finance houses, while ignoring the fact that hundreds of millions across
the planet are being threatened with starvation. More decisive, however, is the realization that this crisis confronting the most
impoverished countries and poorest sections of the world’s population is threatening to unleash a revolution of the hungry that could topple governments across
large parts of the world. Even as the IMF and World Bank were meeting, the government of Haiti was forced out in a no-confidence vote passed in response to
several days of demonstrations and protests against rising food prices and hunger that swept all the country’s major cities. Clashes between protesters and
United Nations occupation troops left at least five people dead and scores wounded and saw crowds attempt to storm the presidential palace. Food prices in
Haiti had risen on average by 40 percent in less than a year, with the cost of staples such as rice doubling. The same essential story has been repeated in
country after country, from Africa to the Middle East, south Asia and Latin America. * In
Bangladesh, on Saturday, some 20,000 textile workers took to
the streets to denounce soaring food prices and demand higher wages. The price of rice in the country has doubled over the past year,
threatening the workers, who earn a monthly salary of just $25, with hunger. Scores were injured in clashes with police, who used
gunfire in an attempt to disperse the crowds. * In Egypt, protests by workers over food prices rocked the textile center of Mahalla al-Kobra, north of Cairo, for two days last week, with two people shot dead by
security forces. Hundreds were arrested, and the government sent plainclothes police into the factories to force workers to work. Food prices in Egypt have risen by 40 percent in the past year. * Unions and
shopkeepers staged a two-day general strike in the West African nation of Burkina Faso last week to protest high prices. The strikers demanded a “significant and effective” cut in the price of rice and other stables.
* Several hundred demonstrators marched on parliament in Phnom Penh, Cambodia April 6 to protest food price hikes. The cost of a kilogram of rice has risen to $1 in a country where the average income is
barely 50 cents a day. Police armed with cattle prods broke up the protest. * Earlier this month, in the Ivory Coast, thousands marched on the home of President Laurent Gbagbo, chanting “we are hungry” and
“life is too expensive, you are going to kill us.” The country has seen food prices soar by between 30 percent and 60 percent from one week to the next. Police broke up the protest with tear gas and batons,
injuring over a dozen people. Similar demonstrations, strikes and clashes have taken place in Bolivia, Peru, Mexico, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Thailand, Yemen, Ethiopia, and throughout

The global
most of sub-Saharan Africa. With terrifying rapidity, hundreds of millions of people all over the planet have been confronted with the inability to obtain the basic necessities of life.

capitalist market is dictating intolerable conditions for masses of people on every continent, provoking a
worldwide eruption of class struggle. It is the concern that this struggle will spin out of control that found expression in the statements of concern
issued by the IMF and World Bank leaders together with finance ministers and central bank chiefs gathered in Washington. “If food prices go on
as they are today, then the consequences on the population in a large set of countries, including Africa, but
not only Africa, will be terrible. Hundreds of thousands of people will be starving. Children will suffer
from malnutrition, with consequences all of their lives,” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the International Monetary Fund managing
director, told an April 12 press conference in Washington. He warned that governments “will see what they have done totally
destroyed and their legitimacy facing the population destroyed also.” Strauss-Kahn added: “So it’s not only a
humanitarian question. It is not only an economic question. It is also a democratic question. Those kind of
questions sometimes end into war.” “In just two months,” World Bank President Robert Zoellick said in an opening speech to the meeting of
finance ministers, “rice prices have skyrocketed to near historical levels, rising by around 75 percent globally and more in some markets, with more likely to
come.” “In Bangladesh, a 2-kilogram bag of rice,” he said, holding up such a bag, “now consumes about half of the daily income of a poor family.” He added
that wheat prices had increased by 120 percent, more than doubling the cost of a loaf of bread. “If food prices go on as they are today, then the consequences
on the population in a large set of countries ... will be terrible,” said Zoellick. The “international community will also need to take urgent and concerted action
in order to avoid the larger political and security implications of this growing crisis,” United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told international finance
and trade officials at a UN meeting following the weekend talks in Washington. The United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food Jean Ziegler
offered among the bleakest prognoses for the continuing crisis. “We
are heading for a very long period of rioting, conflicts
(and) waves of uncontrollable regional instability marked by the despair of the most vulnerable
populations,” he told the French daily Liberation Monday. He pointed out that, even before the present crisis, hunger claimed
the life of a child under the age of 10 every 5 seconds, and 854 million people in the world were seriously
undernourished. What was now posed, Ziegler warned, is “an imminent massacre.”

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Rice Subsidies key to Price

Lowering Rice subsides will force farmers to switch to profitable Medicinal crops, leading to a collapse of
the United States rice industry, having a ripple effect throughout the entire agricultural community

Evelyn Iritani, December 04 2005, Los Angeles Times, http://articles.latimes.com/2005/dec/04/business/fi-


calrice4

Chip Struckmeyer’s rice farm is a model of 21st-century efficiency. With the help of his son and a manager, he farms 485 acres of sticky clay soil, hiring planes
to fly in seed at planting time and using high-tech laser equipment to level his fields. Last year, thanks to favorable weather, Struckmeyer and other California
rice growers produced a record crop of high-quality short- and medium-grain rice, much of which went to Japan. But those ample supplies, plus competition
from Asian suppliers, kept rice prices 30% below those of the previous year, while the cost of fuel and fertilizer soared. Even with tens of thousands
of dollars in aid from the government, the Colusa farmer figures he lost at least $100 an acre. Rice prices have risen this year,
but he still doesn’t think he’ll make up last year’s losses. “Even if right now we could sell 1 million more sacks of rice, what’s
the benefit if the price is below the cost of production?” asked the 57-year-old Struckmeyer, who is cutting back his rice
acreage and shifting to high-value medicinal plants and herbs such as lavender, basil and rose geranium. Here in the rich Sacramento
Valley, the nation’s second-largest rice-producing region, free trade is losing its luster. Though U.S. farm exports are rising, imports are growing even faster,
putting the U.S. on track to register its first trade deficit in agriculture in nearly five decades. Fifteen years ago, the U.S. had a 20% share of the global rice
market. Today that has dropped to 12%. As the nation’s leading exporter of farm goods, California has a huge stake in the effort underway in the 148-member
World Trade Organization to get the world’s richest countries to give up billions of dollars in farm supports in exchange for increased access to other markets.
If successful, the Doha trade round could dramatically reshape global agriculture trade. Heavily protected producers in rich and poor countries would be
undercut as more-efficient farmers emerge in countries such as Brazil, Argentina and parts of Southeast Asia. High-cost producers would be forced to move out
of lower-paying commodity crops and into niche markets. The double-edged sword of trade liberalization can be seen in California. California farmers
received $5.3 billion in subsidies from 1995 to 2004. But more than 90% of the state’s farmers grow crops such as oranges and nuts that receive almost no
government aid and would benefit from market-opening measures. California citrus producers, for example, face tariffs as high as 50% in China and compete
against European farmers, who receive large tax rebates and other government subsidies. “We are significantly disadvantaged at this point,” said Mike Wooten,
vice president of corporate relations for Sunkist Growers Inc., a grower-owned marketing cooperative. Rice farmers aren’t happy about being
labeled big-time recipients of corporate welfare, but they don’t apologize for taking the government’s money. They say it is the
only way they can survive when they face such high trade barriers in other countries and high production costs. Rice, which requires
large amounts of water, fertilizer and land, costs four times as much to produce as corn or soybeans. Last year California rice
farmers received $140 million in subsidies, an average of $37,089 per recipient, according to the Environmental Working Group, an
organization based in Washington that has been a chief critic of farm subsidies.

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Rice Subsidies key to Price

The Rice industry is dependent on federal government subsidies for its very existence – cutting subsidies
to the rice industry would have a ripple effect throughout the agricultural community.

Paul Schnitt Sep. 25, 2001, The Sacramento Bee (Sacramento, California)

For more than 50 years, the Spanglers have farmed rice in Sutter County, brothers working side by side,
growing old and yielding to sons. But there has never been a time when their silent partners have been so vital: the taxpayers. In the five years since
Congress vowed to wean farmers from government subsidies, the Spanglers and their colleagues in the California rice industry have
become so dependent on federal aid that they rely on taxpayer dollars for half their income. During 1999 and
2000, California farmers who produce the nation's second largest rice crop -- covering 500,000 acres in the
Sacramento Valley -- harvested $480 million in federal subsidies. Much of the money went to large family farming operations that took
advantage of rules designed to maximize government payments. In many rural Northern California counties, the government cash
allows farmers to sustain their way of life, and be profitable, rather than sell their land to developers. Yet the
subsidies, documented in records obtained by The Bee under the Freedom of Information Act, come with a price. Not only does the money make
farmers dependent on government funding, it undercuts the classic notion of the independent family farmer as
the mainstay of the rice economy. "Farmers like to think they are independent. Not really," said Arnold Hoffart,
who, along with brothers Neil and Mark, grows rice on 1,600 acres near Yuba City. The Hoffarts, operating as Triple H
Ranches, received $1,250,124.64 in government subsidies over the last two years. They were among 19 Sacramento Valley rice farming operations -- mainly extended
family partnerships -- that received more than $1 million in taxpayer assistance in that two-year period. An additional 93 received subsidies between $500,000 and $1
million. Dan Spangler acknowledges that the portion of his income from the government is probably the highest in history, as Congress approved multibillion- dollar
bailouts the past four years for several farm commodities. The government subsidies of $480 million to the state's rice farmers nearly matched the $485 million market
"It's a bittersweet situation," Spangler said. "Try growing rice without being in the
value of the crop for 1999 and 2000.
(federal) program." Gary Spangler, a partner and cousin, has a blunt response. "The reality is, we need that
government payment,"

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High Prices hurt Rice Producers


Even as international rice producers should be rejoicing over high prices, they’re suffering under high
production prices and are unable to produce enough to provide stability to the rice market.

International Herald Tribune 08 (April 7, Thomas Fuller, “High rice prices no windfall for many Asian farmers”
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/04/06/business/rice.php)

TONG JAI DAI, Laos: It should be happy times in the radiant green rice paddies that Pomchan Luanguanna has spent more than
three decades tilling: The price of his crop is soaring faster and higher than anyone can remember, and local
newspapers are comparing rice, once a relatively inexpensive and neglected commodity, to gold sprouting from
the black soil. But Pomchan, like many small farmers across Asia, [are] not rejoicing. His extended family eats more or less all the
rice he harvests from his small plot. His neighbors are worse off: They put down their tools when the prices of gasoline, fertilizer and pesticides soared. "Their
fields are empty," Pomchan said. In the sprawling, high-tech farms of the United States, the oil fields of Saudi Arabia and the coal mines of Australia, farmers,
drillers and miners are rubbing their hands in anticipation of a continued windfall from the boom in commodity prices. But for many rice farmers in Asia, the
commodity they produce ends up as food in their stomachs, not cash in their bank accounts. Multimedia Graphic » View Related Articles Rich nations seek
action on rising food prices World food prices soar as Asia consumes more Today in Business with Reuters U.S. jobless rate hits 4-year high GM posts $15.5
"The assumption is that all farmers are
billion second-quarter loss Police report says Société Générale was unaware of rogue trades
better off when prices go up," said Robert Zeigler, director general of the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines. "The
problem is that a large proportion of rice producers in the world are actually net rice buyers - they produce
less than their actual needs." Rice prices have been creeping upward since the beginning of this decade, but it was not until February that they
spiked sharply. The price of Thai B grade rice, a widely traded variety, reached $795 per ton last week, an increase of
147 percent from a year earlier. "Nobody has ever seen such a jump in the price of rice," said Kwanchai Gomez, the executive director of the
Thai Rice Foundation, a research center. "Certainly not in my lifetime, and that's a long time." She is 68 years old. The price of rice, always politically
sensitive in Asia, has spread anxiety among consumers who are emptying shelves of the least expensive varieties. In the Philippines, the world's largest rice
importer, the government warned that anyone hoarding rice could be charged with economic sabotage, which carries a life sentence. Armed soldiers supervised
the distribution of subsidized rice last week. Experts say rice prices are rising because of a mix of irrational panic, weather problems - typhoons in the
Philippines, a cyclone in Bangladesh, flooding in Indonesia and Vietnam - and an overall reduction in the amount of land dedicated to rice farming. There are
also strong suspicions of hoarding, something that the Thai commerce minister recently encouraged before reversing himself. Thailand, which is by far the
world's largest rice exporter, has become a focal point of the global rice market as other traditional exporting countries like Vietnam and India have halted or
put restrictions on their exports in recent weeks to ensure sufficient domestic supplies. But it is a measure of the relatively weak position of rice farmers that
even in Thailand most farmers have not yet benefited from the increase in prices. Their farms are generally bigger and more modern than those in Laos and
other remote parts of Asia, but their productivity is low. Perhaps most important, they have no way of storing their own rice. Most of them sell their crops
immediately after the main harvest in November, when supply is ample and prices are usually lowest. The price of Thai white rice is 122 percent higher now
than it was in November. "Are most of the farmers benefiting from this?" said Kwanchai of the Thai Rice Foundation. "I would say no." "This price rise is a
problem for everyone because no one was prepared," she said. But there are winners in the rice business, and there are likely to be more if the high prices hold
or rise. Commercial farmers who have access to irrigation, which in Thailand be 25 percent of the total number, can harvest as often as four times a year and
thus will reap a windfall in May when their next crop is due. The biggest winners are the millers and packers, because they are able to hold onto their rice and
sell at higher prices. Yet it is striking how many people in the rice business in Thailand are complaining as the price of
rice soars. Korbsook Iamsuri, the head of Kamolkij, a rice exporting company that controls about 5 percent of the Thai export market, said the
suddenness of the upswing had caused some exporters to lose tens of thousands of dollars.

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Rice key to Cali Economy


California’s economy relies on the Rice industry for export and tax revenue as well as employment - a
decline in rice revenue would Devestate Californias economy Daniel A. Sumner and Henrich Brunke,
September 2003, www.calrice.org
Total revenue of the California rice industry was almost $500 million per year in both 2001 and 2002 (see table 1). Total
revenue was thus somewhat less than $10 per hundredweight. This is the income that supported the production costs, infrastructure and rice land prices in
industry. This is also the revenue that forms the basis for the industry's contributions to the rural economies of Northern California. The cost side of the net
revenue equation indicates how total industry revenue was distributed. According to the cost of production data compiled by University of California
Cooperative Extension the typical cultural costs for rice, including field preparation, seeding, fertilizing, irrigation and pest control are about $380 per acre.
Harvest, drying, storage, post harvest costs and interest, including straw management add another $219 per acre. Costs associated with owned or rented crop
land add $225 per acre. The UC estimated the typical full costs are $944 per acre. Land was the largest single cost item and indicates the capitalized value of
net future returns that growers anticipate from producing rice. Hired and family farm labor is another major cost item. Rice is particularly important in six
counties of the Sacramento Valley. The top six rice-producing counties are Colusa, Butte, Sutter, Glenn, Yuba and Yolo. Together these six counties produce
about 94 percent of the California total. Rice is the number one agricultural commodity measured by market value of production in Butte, Colusa, Glenn,
Sutter, and Yuba counties. It is also an important crop in Yolo County and is the number 2 slightly behind processing tomatoes in total revenue, including
Rice production does not simply add rice revenue to the economy. That revenue is
government payments.
multiplied as the economic activity of rice growers and others spreads through the local, state and national
economies (see the Measure of California Agriculture, University of California Agricultural Issues Center). Additional revenue for other
businesses and additional employment in rural communities follows from economic activity initiated in
the rice industry. In addition, this economic activity and the added land values contribute to tax revenue that is used for rural schooling and other local
and state services. The local "multiplier" impacts indicate that about $1.60 dollars are added in county economic activity for each dollar of rice revenue in the
counties of the Sacramento Valley. The impacts are larger than 1.6 in Butte, Sutter and Yolo counties where there is more non-farm business that relies on rice.
The effect is largest, approaching 2.0 in Sacramento County. Employment multipliers show that each million dollars of rice revenue generates approximately
10 jobs in the local county. The largest impact is in Butte County with about 13 jobs per million dollars of rice total revenue. Overall
we can
associate about 5,000 rural community jobs in the Sacramento Valley with the California rice industry.
This employment is crucial in these communities, which have a relatively small economic base and higher
than average unemployment rates. …. California rice also plays a major role in the national and global rice
economy. California is the number-two rice state in the United States and the sole producer of high quality
medium grain japonica rice favored by many consumers. Rice is a major export commodity for California
and California is a major rice exporter. Buyers in Northeast Asia and the Mediterranean region rely on
California rice and these markets are growing with more open trade rules.

Cali key to US Economy


Matthew Benjamin 10/12/03, US News http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/031020/20econ.htm
Everybody is interested in California, billionaire financier Warren Buffett said in August when asked why he agreed to advise then gubernatorial hopeful
Arnold Schwarzenegger. But Buffett meant more than a morbid fascination with car chases and Hollywood glitterati. "You can't have trouble out there without
it affecting the rest of the country." As usual, the Oracle of Omaha was dead on. California's economy accounts for an eighth of the U.S.
economy and is larger than the economies of all but four nations, ranking between Britain and France. Its technology,
agriculture, and entertainment industries lead the nation. So when the Golden State sneezes, the national economy can easily
catch a cold.

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Fish Price DA
The only thing keeping Fishermen from going under are subsides granted by the government, removing
them would be devastating
Steven Rosenberg, March 16, 2008 ([Rosenberg is a staff member of the Boston Globe], “Senators Criticize Fishing oversight,”
Boston Globe, d/l: LexisNexis)

At issue is a Feb. 8 letter written by John Oliver, acting assistant administrator for fisheries for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the
organization that oversees fishing regulations. In his letter to Paul Diodati, director of the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries, Oliver
recommended that just half of the $13.4 million go toward fishermen's subsidies. Oliver also recommended that 40 to 60 percent of the
funds be used to buy back some of the 700 federal groundfish permits held by Massachusetts fishermen. "Capacity reduction, such as buyouts, is at the core of
transitioning to a more stable fishing environment," Oliver wrote. In e-mails to the Globe, Kerry and Kennedy reiterated that the funds should go to help the
ailing fishermen. "These funds should be distributed based on the needs of our fishermen, not on the dictates of NOAA
bureaucrats," Kerry said. "Our fishing families are hurting, and the last thing they need is a bureaucratic mess of federal dictates
and interagency squabbles. The fishermen of Massachusetts need help and they need it now." Added Kennedy, "There's no question
that our fishing industry needs immediate relief, and this federal funding is intended to do just that. I look forward to working
with the fishing industry and our state officials to ensure that the funds are used to help those who were hurt by Framework
42." Framework 42 is the latest in a series of federal government regulations designed to build up depleted fishing stocks. The
regulation, which took effect in November 2006, cut days at sea for Massachusetts fishermen who catch haddock, flounder, and
other groundfish. A decade ago, fishermen could fish almost 100 days out of the year, but under Framework 42, they're down to
24 days a year at sea.

Good subsidies also help to maintain a healthy environment, removing them would damage the ecsystem
International collective in support of fishworks in 2005
Clearly, therefore, the overcapacity and overfishing in the fisheries of several developing countries cannot be attributed to subsidies;
these occur despite lower subsidies.Rather, they are mainly related to open-access regimes and an indiscriminate response to market signals. Some people
argue that there are no ’good’ subsidies. We disagree. There are ’good’subsidies and ’bad’ subsidies. Good subsidies are those that can bring about
better control over the input of fishing effort and the output of fish; encourage participatory management regimes; introduce
equitable property rights (which sufficiently recognize the characteristics of artisanal, small-scale fisheries); lead to effective
monitoring, control and surveillance systems; relocate fishers from overcrowded inshore waters to labour-scarce fisheries or non-
fishing activities; contribute to protecting fish habitats; and help build up an information base.Subsidies, needless to add, are one among
several means to an end, not an end initself. If equity and sustainability could become the ’public objective’.

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Cotton Price DA Link

Domestic subsidies lower the worldwide price of cotton by raising the supply.

Helling, Madeline, Beaulier, Hall. High cotton: Why the USA should not Provide subsidies to cotton
farmers. Economic viewpoints. 2008.

Local revenues that could be generated by the domestic cotton industry within African states, such as Burkina Faso,
could contribute to their economic development. However, America’s subsidised products undermine the economies of
these countries by lowering the worldwide price. American subsidies stimulate US production of cotton, therefore
increasing world supply and depressing prices. As a result, cotton farmers in developing nations find it difficult to sell their cotton for a profit.

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Plan Increases cotton prices


Eliminating subsidies raises cotton prices by as much as fifteen percent.

Economist’s View. 2006. Cotton subsidies.


http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2006/04/cotton_subsidie.html

Take away subsidies and cotton prices will rise, perhaps as much as 15%. “There’s real money here for the individual
African,” says Daniel Sumner, an economist and cotton expert at the University of California. ... Africans are trying to
make the best out of a bad situation. In some parts of Africa, cotton growers are expanding production... In Uganda,
where civil wars in the 1970’s and 1980’s devastated farming, cotton growers are making a major comeback. In
Zambia, cotton output is soaring. In both countries, foreign investors are opening gins and assisting growers.

Plan causes for domestic cotton prices to skyrocket because subsidies allow farmers to receive artificially low
prices.

Helling, Madeline, Beaulier, Hall. High cotton: Why the USA should not Provide subsidies to cotton
farmers. Economic viewpoints. 2008.
Subsidies to American cotton farmers are interfering with normal market processes; American farmers are receiving
artificially high prices for their cotton, due to government subsidies, and are flooding the international market with
their cotton as a result. This glut has driven the price of cotton down and has thus had a detrimental impact on
countries such as Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali, whose economies rely heavily on cotton production. For
example, in Burkina Faso, 85% of the population farms cotton. The cost of cotton production in Burkina Faso is one-
third the cost of production in the USA, but local farmers cannot compete with the American cotton in the marketplace
(Olvera and Magill, 2007). Small farmers in Burkina Faso complain that ‘they must compete against highly-
mechanized, well-subsidized US rivals’ and argue that ‘American subsidies serve to depress prices on world markets’
(BBC News, 2007). To get some perspective on the effect of US cotton subsidies on Burkina Faso’s economy, consider the
following from the presidents of Mali and Burkina Faso:

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Cotton Price low now


Cotton prices continuing to decline even though production is falling.

Emerging Textiles July 2008. Cotton Prices Again Down Amid Rising Pessimism. Emerging Textiles
Trade Information. http://www.emergingtextiles.com/?q=art&s=080714-cotton-price&r=cotprice&n=1
Cotton prices continued last week declining amid new signs of falling global production and consumption in the next season. A
rebound in other commodity markets was ignored on the U.S. cotton market while such a weakness did not trigger a recovery
in physical demand, however. Indian domestic prices started declining after New Delhi eliminated tariffs and taxes on cotton
imports.

Cotton prices decreasing in 2008

Don Shurley, July 2008 Cotton Marketing News, Volume 6, Number 29

On April 1, cotton was 81 cents/lb (Dec08 futures), soybeans were $11.47/bu (Nov08 futures), and corn was $5.98/bu (Sep08 futures). On
May 1, cotton was 77 ½ cents, soybeans $11.93, and corn $6.27. Today, closing futures prices were roughly—
cotton 73 cents, soybeans $14.50, and corn $6.00. Since April 1 and May 1, corn and soybean prices have held up with soybeans increasing. Cotton
has trended downward and lost ground relative to other crops. Today’s price at 73 cents translates into 70 cents or less cash
price for most producers. So, if prices remain at this level into harvest and considering the sharp
increase in production costs this year, profit margins will be “thin” to say the least. I’m sure this is not exactly
what the producer had in mind back in March, April, and May when the decision was made to plant the crop.

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Cotton Prices high now

World Cotton Price is Projected Higher in 2008/09

Secretariat, INTERNATIONAL COTTON ADVISORY COMMITTEE, April 08

World cotton area is projected to remain relatively stable in 2008/09 at 33.8 million hectares. However, cotton
harvested area in the USA
is projected to decline by a further 15% in 2008/09 as a result of surging prices for soybeans, corn,
wheat and other oilseeds. Reduced cotton plantings in the USA could be offset by increases in China
(Mainland), India, the African Franc Zone, Australia and Brazil, while stable area is projected for Pakistan, Turkey and
Uzbekistan. World cotton production in 2008/09 is projected at 26.9 million tons (+3%), while cotton mill use is projected to grow at a lower rate of +1%
compared with 2% in 2007/08 and 7% in 2006/07, due to slower world economic growth and an increase in cotton prices relative to polyester. As a result of the
gap between world production and consumption, world cotton ending stocks are projected to decline for the second season during 2008/09 to 11 million tons
(-5% from 2007/08, and -13% from 2006/07). The fundamentals of cotton supply and use alone would suggest a season-average Cotlook A Index of less than
70 cents per pound in 2007/08. However, based
on trends in prices during the first eight months of 2007/08, it is
obvious that prices will be higher. Increases in prices of competing crops, the increasing role of
speculative activity and commodity investment funds may be affecting cotton prices in ways that
are not reflected in fundamental measures of cotton supply and use.

Cotton prices rising higher and higher.

YNFX (/Yarns and Fibers Exchange) Cotton Price News. 31. July 2008.
http://www.yarnsandfibers.com/textile-pricewatch/cotton-trends-reports.html
Brisk trading continued in cotton market as over 5,000 lint bales were traded at higher prices on Wednesday.
The KCA sources said that there had been brisk trading on Friday trading period. The prices were showing upward trend from
the last few days. The price committee fully deliberated the price issue and later decided to reduce the prices by Rs 25 per
maund, therefore, the prices fixed at Rs 3,900 per maund, while the official spot rates were at Rs 4,180 per 40 kg The supply
of fresh phutti was slow which affected the deals. Spinners and millers were looking to grab all the unsold stock. While ginners
and growers were concerned about the prices and said that they should get adequate compensation for it. They were happy after
the increase in prices. On Friday, over-8000 lint bales changed hands. About 1,100 bales were from Sindh, exchanged at the
rate of Rs 4,010 to 4150 per maund. While the remaining were from Punjab and changed hands in the price-range of Rs 4,150
to 4,250 per maund. Floor brokers said that the trading improved after the fears of short crop. The sources said that the trading
may pick-up further as the demand had been rising while the fears about short crop have accelerated the process of
procurement.

World cotton production is expected to decline due to competition from other crops.

Global Industry News 2008. ICAC sees cotton prices rising in 2008/2009. Yarns and Fibers Exchange.
http://www.yarnsandfibers.com/news/index_fullstory.php3?id=15490&p_type=Cotton
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 79 cents per pound in
2008/09, 6 cents higher than the expected 2007/08 average. This projected price increase is due mainly to an expected decline
in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland), says the group. "World cotton production is projected to
decline slightly in 2008/09 to 26.0 million tons. Declines in production are forecast in the United States, Brazil, and Turkey due
to competition from grains and soybeans. These reductions could offset increases projected in Asia, West Africa and Australia,"
says ICAC.

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Cotton Price High now

Cotton prices rising significantly.

PRlog press. 2008. Cotton prices hikes substantially, Cotlook A index rising by five cents. Free Press Release Distribution.
http://www.prlog.org/10047254-cotton-prices-hiked-substantially-cotlook-index-rising-by-5-cents.html

Acrylic staple fiber, 1.5D/38mm in China inched up by a cent to US$2.53 a kg while in Taiwan was at US$2.25 a kg. In India, the spec fell by a cent to
US$2.77 a kg. 3D Mitsubishi Rayon contract price was unchanged at US$2.4 kg. Acrylonitrile prices North China inched up further by US$5 a ton to
US$2,070 a ton while else where it remained constant. VFY prices in China inched up to a couple of cents for respective specs. 75D bright and dull in China
local market was at US$7.45 a kg In India, prices declined by a cent across specs. 10D bright in India got quoted at US$5.93 a kg. VSF price in India declined
by a cent in the week 1.2D dull was at US$3.05 while 1.5D-2.0D dull was US$2.95 a kg. 1.5D/38 mm in China was at US$3.01 whereas 1.5D in Pakistan was
at US$3.05 a kg. Cotton fiber prices increased substantially across markets. Cotlook A index increased 5 cents in the week,
whereas Nymex cotton futures jumped 11 cents. China cotton index inched up by a cent. Indian cotton prices were also
bullish, and standard Shankar 6 prices increased 4 cents to US$1.51 a kg.

Cotton prices at record high.

The Nation Daily Newspaper. June 24, 2008. Cotton price surges to record high.
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Business/24-Jun-2008/Cotton-
price-surges-to-record-high
The price of high quality cotton has climbed by Rs100 to a record level of Rs4200 per maund across the country.Senior
cotton trader Nasim Usman told newsmen on Tuesday the deal of 200 bales of cotton from Pak Pattan's fresh crop was
finalized at Rs4200 per maund. Their delivery will be made on July 1, 2008.Increased price of 'phutti' as well as demand
of cotton by textile mills had led to the rise in cotton price.

**Generic Food Price Impacts**

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Famine
High Food prices have lead to world-wide shortages and hunger
NY Times, May 11, 2008 (“Change We Can Stomach,” New York Times, d/l: LexisNexis)

COOKING, like farming, for all its down-home community spirit, is essentially a solitary craft. But lately it's feeling more like a
lonely burden. Finding guilt-free food for our menus -- food that's clean, green and humane -- is about as easy as securing a housing
loan. And we're suddenly paying more -- 75 percent more in the last six years -- to stock our pantries. Around the world, from Cairo to
Port-au-Prince, increases in food prices have governments facing riots born of shortages and hunger. It's enough to make you want to
toss in the toque.

Escalating Food Prices threaten millionswith hunger


NY Times, May 11, 2008 (“Change We Can Stomach,” New York Times, d/l: LexisNexis)

Similar networks could also operate in the countries that are now experiencing food shortages. For years, the United States has flooded
the world with food exports, displacing small farmers and disrupting domestic markets. As escalating food prices threaten an
additional 100 million people with hunger, a new concept of humanitarian aid is required. Local farming efforts focused on conserving
natural resources and biodiversity are essential to improving food security in developing countries, as a report just published by the
International Assessment of Agriculture Science and Technology for Development has concluded. We must build on these tenets,
providing financial and technical assistance to small farmers across the world. But regional systems will work only if there is enough
small-scale farming going on to make them viable. With a less energy-intensive food system in place, we will need more muscle
power devoted to food production, and more people on the farm. (The need is especially urgent when you consider that the average
age of today's American farmer is over 55.) In order to move gracefully into a post-industrial agriculture economy, we also need to
rethink how we educate the people who will grow our food. Land-grant universities and agricultural schools, dependent on financing
from agribusiness, focus on maximum extraction from the land -- take more, sell more, waste more.

High Food Prices and resistance from the US Farm lobby are driving millions to suffer from hunger
globally
NY Times, May 6, 2008 (“Food Emergency,” New York Times, d/l: LexisNexis)

As soaring food prices threaten to unleash widespread hunger across Africa and other poor countries, President Bush is right to press
Congress for more food assistance. He is also right to insist that some of that aid be given in cash to purchase food from local farmers.
Unfortunately, the American farm lobby, which supports food aid as long as it gets the profit, is fighting any change to the system.
The situation has become increasingly desperate as rising energy prices, growing world demand and government-subsidized ethanol
production -- in the United States and Europe -- have driven corn prices up by 25 percent over the last year. The prices of wheat and
soybeans have doubled. There have already been food riots in several countries, including Haiti, Egypt and Somalia, with fears of
more to come. Beyond the emergency aid, wealthy donors also need to do a lot more to help Africa and other developing countries
increase food production. That will require assistance to develop agricultural markets and aid and credit for new technologies and
seeds to boost yields. Providing cash to buy food locally would help stimulate farming in the countries that need it most.

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Famine
Rising Food prices are hurting the world’s children, who are suffering from malnutrition
NY Times, April 14, 2008 (“To prevent malnutrition For Children’s Sake,” New York Times, d/l: LexisNexis)

What should also be highlighted is the devastating effect that rising world food prices will have on the most vulnerable infants and
young children. Beyond the age of exclusive breast-feeding, the quality of the food children receive is as important as the quantity. To
maintain health and growth, children between 6 and 24 months old need energy furnished by grains and fats, as well as specific
essential nutrients included in animal-source proteins like milk. In ''malnutrition hot spots'' like the Sahel, East Africa and South Asia,
where most of the world's five million malnutrition-related deaths occur each year, poor families already struggle, and often fail, to
provide their children with such varied diets. As you point out, it is critical to strengthen the World Food Program's ability to carry out
general food distributions and other interventions as the global food crisis spreads. But increasing the quantity of food aid is not
enough. Stemming and reversing the high rate of malnutrition-related deaths in the young should be a top priority. ''Ready to use''
nutrient-rich and dense foods and other nutritional supplements geared to the specific needs of young children can have a significant
effect. Enhancing existing food aid with these supplements may increase the global cost of food aid, but if the world truly seeks to
contain this growing crisis, this cannot be seen as a luxury.

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Famine
Famine threatens to kill millions in Africa in the next year alone. Hunger and malnutrition rates are
increasing causing a public health emergency.

Current Health 2006 Running on empty: the global fight against hunger is as fierce as ever; YOUR WORLD, a Weekly Reader
publication October 1, 2006
Worldwide, people of every age struggle to fill their most basic needs every day. The
United Nations notes that in recent years, world
hunger rates have risen. (Hunger in this context means long-term lackof food.) After the number of hungry people fell from 959 million in1970 to 791
million in 1997, it quickly rose again. During the late 1990s, hunger rose at a rate of almost 4 million people per year. By 2002, the number had reached 852 million.
According to the United Nations, hunger levels are increasing because nations aren't investing enough in farming;
much land is unsuitable for agriculture; and in many areas, the human population is growing. Wars and other conflicts can
also make growing or getting food difficult, resulting in food insecurity uncertain access to safe and adequate food. Going without food is dangerous.
Severe hunger and malnutrition (lack of adequate nutrients) can result in permanent brain damage, learning
disabilities, and stunted growth. Without enough calories, proteins, vitamins, and minerals, the body is unable to
fight illnesses such as malaria, measles, and diarrhea. The Hunger Project, an organization that works to end world hunger, estimates that
24,000 people diefrom hunger-related causes every day. "There is actually a food crisis that is looming" in
developing countries, says Debbie Diederich, director of youth marketing for the relief group World Vision International. Even though enough food exists to
feed the world's population, many families go without food because it's too costly. Many others just can't get to the food. "Hunger exists not because
there's a lack of food or a lack of resources. Hunger exists because of the distribution of that food," says Jennifer Hecker,
organizing director of the National Student Campaign Against Hunger and Homelessness. War and conflict can displace people to remote areas with little water and
land that is unsuitable for farming. Some advocates believe that governments around the globe don't spend enough on feeding the hungry or farming. Conflict and
economic problems were the main causesof more than 35 percent of food emergencies between 1992 and 2003, according to the U.N. Food and
Agriculture Organization. Here are just some of the current hunger situations in Africa alone. * In Malawi, where
flooding has wiped out local crops and caused afood crisis, every schoolchild eats a bowl of porridge each day at school. The prospect of food
attracts the children to school; the porridge gives them the energy they need to learn. But for many of those students, that is the only food they eat each day. *
Zimbabwe has a shortage of 1.2 million tons of grain. Because people's household stocks have run low, the demand for grain on the market has
* The worst drought in a
risen, and costs have sky-rocketed. Fuel and transportation problems also make the distribution of available gram more difficult.
decade is hitting Kenya hard. The resulting famine has been declared a national disaster. In regions such as Mandera, the ground is covered with the
rotting bodies of animals thathave died from lack of food and water. One in three children has been declared malnourished. But experts say the drought is not the main
cause of the food crisis. Because of government instability, money isn't being spent on developing land for farming. For example, in the city of Nairobi, the government
has been accused of spending millions of dollars on luxury vehicles. Meanwhile, the country is appealing todonors for $225 million to help an estimated 3.5 million
people in need of immediate aid. One New Zealand food manufacturer is reported to have offered canned dog food for the people. The Kenyan government turned
down the donation. * In Sudan, government conflict with rebels has uprooted whole communities. At press time, about 500,000 people lived in refugee camps in the
region of West Darfur. Ongoing violence there has made it difficult for relief organizations to provide food for the people. * Land mines in Angola keep farmers from
returning to their land for harvesting. * In Burkina Faso, 20 percent of families have had to abandon farming because of deaths from AIDS, according to the BBC.
The impact on children is particularly harsh. The United Nations notes that if hunger statistics remain constant,
more than 5 million children worldwide will die each year from complications of starvation.

Complacency in the face of famine is murder, there is more than enough food to feed every hungry
person.
Africa News, June 30 2007 “Africa: Food for 12 billion. So why did 854 million go without?” http://www.africa-
interactive.net/index.php?PageID=5038 accessed July 2, 2007 SS
"As you are suffering from over-consumption, I am suffering from under-consumption. We need to strike a
balance," said Mary Wahu Kaara from the Kenya Debt Relief Network with reference to the North and the South. Her words were echoed by Hilkka Pietila,
honorary president of the World Federation of United Nations Associations: "We are wasting food in the North. We are eating too much,
burning grain as fuel, and growing grain to feed pigs to slaughter for ham." Their contributions were part of a heated debate
over the past two days about the eradication of hunger, this at the Civil Society Development Forum. The three-day meeting is being hosted by the Conference of
Non-governmental Organisations in Consultative Relationship with the United Nations (CONGO) and the United Nations Millennium Campaign. It ends Saturday.
Jean Ziegler, U.N. special rapporteur on the right to food, alerted the more than 500 delegates that while 854 million people went without food
in the world last year, enough food was produced to feed 12 billion people. "This is why a child that dies from
famine is murder," Ziegler said.

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Famine
Millions are dying right now due to hunger.
MORRIS APRIL 13TH [James, World Food Program, 2007, Millions still starve in a world of plenty, Ottawa Citizen]

What if your child were starving? One


child dies every five seconds of hunger and related diseases. You have no doubt run
across these sad statistics before, perhaps in a television appeal or a news article. Frankly, they are hard to get your mind around and,
worse yet, a bit paralysing. It's difficult to imagine all that loss of innocent life, and who would want to? But if you had the opportunity, as I have, to see some
of these young children, to hold them in your arms and look into the eyes of their pleading mothers, the statistics become far too real. And they haunt you.
They have troubled me now for the five years I have spent as head of the World Food Program. WFP delivers food aid to poor families that saves millions of
children's lives -- and the lives of those left hungry by war in Darfur, AIDS in southern Africa, and natural disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami. On
average WFP feeds more than 90 million malnourished people, but it is not yet enough to have a real impact on the cold
statistics of child mortality. I recall all too vividly the first time I held a dying child in Africa. First, there was an incredible sorrow, and then quickly
after, a deep shame. How could we -- how could I -- let this happen? The child's face was blank, but somehow I still saw a plea in it. I certainly saw a plea in
the face of his mother, who I know thought that somehow I could miraculously help. I couldn't. It was already too late, and the local doctor from Medecins
sans Frontieres said the child had at best a few weeks to live. How is this still happening in 2007? We are so rich in the United States, Canada, Europe and
Japan that we watch sports and soap operas on expensive little cellphones and the value of the food we throw away far exceeds what it would cost to feed all
the world's orphans and refugees. Do I sound like I am pushing some global welfare scheme? I am not. I am a proud Republican, an ardent capitalist and
probably a touch more traditional than most. And because I am all those things, I am really puzzled, frustrated and ashamed that we tolerate hunger and
malnutrition on the scale it still exists today. We so clearly have the capacity to end it. We North Americans worry sometimes obsessively
about the health impact of eating too much, but according to the World Health Organization, hunger and malnutrition
are still the biggest threat to health worldwide and they claim more lives than AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis
combined. It is pretty amazing that with all our technology, the world's biggest killer remains what it was when we slept
in caves. So why aren't we getting the traction we need to do something about it? In part, I suspect that on some level many people in the West do not really
believe hunger is as lethal as we know it is. Yes, hunger exists in North America, too, but it is a different hunger and largely the product of local failures in
quite well-funded social welfare systems. While there are 852 million people who are chronically hungry worldwide, global food
aid -- from all donors -- is barely one-10th of the size of domestic nutrition efforts in the U.S. And most global aid is
concentrated on emergencies such as Afghanistan and Darfur, not on the low-grade hunger that is ruining the lives of
400 million children. So not only are we not doing enough, we are concentrating our resources predominantly on emergencies that make the evening
news. I have often thought a hungry child in the middle of a war or a huge natural disaster was somehow better off than one living in a developing country at
peace and quietly struggling to better itself. Sadly, all of us seem to pay far more attention to the former than the latter. The issue is not so much a lack of
generosity by donors as perhaps mistaken priorities. Official Development Assistance has broken through to an all-time high of more than $100 billion and
globally poverty dropped by an extraordinary 20 per cent in the 1990s, largely due to economic growth in China, India and other parts of Asia. The AIDS
pandemic and the Indian Ocean tsunami elicited an unprecedented outpouring of private aid and foundations such as Gates, Ford and Lilly are having a greater
impact than ever before. But despite all this we are seeing the creation of a permanent underclass of extremely poor people
who are severely malnourished, and the numbers of starving are growing. It is not clear to me that the donor or
academic communities have fully grasped the incredible impact of good nutrition in global development.

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Famine – Deontology
There is no moral difference between allowing a child to starve and killing that child. A vote negative is a
death knell for millions

SINGER 1972 [Peter, Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University, and laureate professor at the Centre for
Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics, University of Melbourne. Famine, Affluence, and Morality, Philosophy and Public Affairs, vol.
1, no. 1 (Spring 1972), pp. 229-243 [revised edition]]

These are the essential facts about the present situation in Bengal. So far as it concerns us here, there is nothing unique
about this situation except its magnitude. The Bengal emergency is just the latest and most acute of a series of major emergencies in various parts of
the world, arising both from natural and from manmade causes. There are also many parts of the world in which people die from
malnutrition and lack of food independent of any special emergency. I take Bengal as my example only because it is the present concern, and
because the size of the problem has ensured that it has been given adequate publicity. Neither individuals nor governments can claim to be unaware of what is
happening there. What are the moral implications of a situation like this? In what follows, I shall argue that the way people in relatively affluent countries react to a
situation like that in Bengal cannot be justified; indeed, the whole way we look at moral issues - our moral conceptual scheme - needs to be altered, and with it, the
way of life that has come to be taken for granted in our society. In arguing for this conclusion I will not, of course, claim to be morally neutral. I shall, however, try
to argue for the moral position that I take, so that anyone who accepts certain assumptions, to be made explicit, will, I hope, accept my conclusion. I begin
with the assumption that suffering and death from lack of food, shelter, and medical care are bad. I think most people will agree
about this, although one may reach the same view by different routes. I shall not argue for this view. People can hold all sorts of eccentric positions, and perhaps
from some of them it would not follow that death by starvation is in itself bad. It is difficult, perhaps impossible, to refute such positions, and so for brevity I will
henceforth take this assumption as accepted. Those who disagree need read no further. My next point is this: if it is in our power to prevent something
bad from happening, without thereby sacrificing anything of comparable moral importance, we ought, morally, to do it. By
"without sacrificing anything of comparable moral importance" I mean without causing anything else comparably bad to
happen, or doing something that is wrong in itself, or failing to promote some moral good, comparable in significance to the bad thing that we can
prevent. This principle seems almost as uncontroversial as the last one. It requires us only to prevent what is bad, and to promote what is good, and it requires this
of us only when we can do it without sacrificing anything that is, from the moral point of view, comparably important. I could even, as far as the application of my
argument to the Bengal emergency is concerned, qualify the point so as to make it: if it is in our power to prevent something very bad from happening, without
thereby sacrificing anything morally significant, we ought, morally, to do it. An application of this principle would be as follows: if I am walking past a shallow
pond and see a child drowning in it, I ought to wade in and pull the child out. This will mean getting my clothes muddy, but this is insignificant, while the death of
the child would presumably be a very bad thing. The uncontroversial appearance of the principle just stated is deceptive. If it were acted upon, even in its
qualified form, our lives, our society, and our world would be fundamentally changed. For the principle takes, firstly, no
account of proximity or distance. It makes no moral difference whether the person I can help is a neighbor's child ten yards
from me or a Bengali whose name I shall never know, ten thousand miles away. Secondly, the principle makes no distinction between
cases in which I am the only person who could possibly do anything and cases in which I am just one among millions in the same position.

The principle of intervening actions enhances our argument, we are not responsible for the trivial
probabilistic effects of their disads. Our actions to stave off famine should be evaluated for their inherent
moral value.
Alan Gewirth, philosophy professor, Chicago, ABSOLUTISM AND ITS CONSEQUENTIALIST CRITICS, 1994, p. 38.
An example of this principle may help to show its connection with the absolutist thesis. Martin Luther King, Jr. was repeatedly told that because
he led demonstrations in support of civil rights, he was morally responsible for the disorders, riots, and deaths that ensued
and that were shaking the American Republic to its foundations. By the principle of the intervening action, however, it was
King’s opponents who were responsible because their intervention operated as the sufficient conditions of the riots and
injuries. King might also have replied that the Republic would not be worth saving if the price that had to be paid was the violation of the civil rights of black
Americans. As for the rights of other Americans to peace and order, the reply would be that these rights cannot justifiably be secured at the price of the rights of
blacks. It follows from the principle of the intervening action that it is not the son but rather the terrorists who are morally
as well as causally responsible for the many deaths that do or may ensue on his refusal to torture his mother to death. The
important point is not that he lets these persons die rather than kills them, or that he does not harm them but only fails to help them, or that he intends their deaths
obliquely but not directly. The point is rather that it is only through the intervening lethal actions of the terrorists that his refusal
eventuates in many deaths. Since the moral responsibility is not the son’s, it does not affect his moral duty not to torture his
mother to death, so that her correlative right remains absolute.

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Famine –Deontology
We must help when we can to prevent famine, it is out responsibility to do it
SINGER 1972 [Peter, Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University, and laureate professor at the Centre for
Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics, University of Melbourne. Famine, Affluence, and Morality, Philosophy and Public Affairs, vol.
1, no. 1 (Spring 1972), pp. 229-243 [revised edition]]

It has been argued by some writers, among them Sidgwick and Urmson, that we need to have a basic moral code which is not too
far beyond the capacities of the ordinary man, for otherwise there will be a general breakdown of compliance with the
moral code. Crudely stated, this argument suggests that if we tell people that they ought to refrain from murder and give everything they do not really need
to famine relief, they will do neither, whereas if we tell them that they ought to refrain from murder and that it is good to give to famine relief but not wrong
not to do so, they will at least refrain from murder. The issue here is: Where should we draw the line between conduct that is required and conduct that is good
although not required, so as to get the best possible result? This would seem to be an empirical question, although a very difficult one. One objection to the
Sidgwick-Urmson line of argument is that it takes insufficient account of the effect that moral standards can have on the decisions we make. Given a
society in which a wealthy man who gives 5 percent of his income to famine relief is regarded as most generous, it is not
surprising that a proposal that we all ought to give away half our incomes will be thought to be absurdly unrealistic. In a
society which held that no man should have more than enough while others have less than they need, such a proposal might seem narrow-minded. What it is
possible for a man to do and what he is likely to do are both, I think, very greatly influenced by what people around him are doing and expecting him to do. In
any case, the possibility that by spreading the idea that we ought to be doing very much more than we are to relieve famine we shall bring about a general
breakdown of moral behavior seems remote. If the stakes are an end to widespread starvation, it is worth the risk. Finally, it should be emphasized that these
considerations are relevant only to the issue of what we should require from others, and not to what we ourselves ought to do. The second objection to
my attack on the present distinction between duty and charity is one which has from time to time been made against
utilitarianism. It follows from some forms of utilitarian theory that we all ought, morally, to be working full time to increase the balance of happiness over
misery. The position I have taken here would not lead to this conclusion in all circumstances, for if there were no bad occurrences that we could prevent
without sacrificing something of comparable moral importance, my argument would have no application. Given the present conditions in many
parts of the world, however, it does follow from my argument that we ought, morally, to be working full time to relieve
great suffering of the sort that occurs as a result of famine or other disasters. Of course, mitigating circumstances can
be adduced - for instance, that if we wear ourselves out through overwork, we shall be less effective than we would
otherwise have been. Nevertheless, when all considerations of this sort have been taken into account, the conclusion remains: we ought to be preventing
as much suffering as we can without sacrificing something else of comparable moral importance. This conclusion is one which we may be reluctant to face. I
cannot see, though, why it should be regarded as a criticism of the position for which I have argued, rather than a criticism of our ordinary standards of
behavior. Since most people are self-interested to some degree, very few of us are likely to do everything that we ought to do. It would, however, hardly be
honest to take this as evidence that it is not the case that we ought to do it. It may still be thought that my conclusions are so wildly out of
line with what everyone else thinks and has always thought that there must be something wrong with the argument
somewhere. In order to show that my conclusions, while certainly contrary to contemporary Western moral standards, would not have seemed so
extraordinary at other times and in other places, I would like to quote a passage from a writer not normally thought of as a way-out radical, Thomas Aquinas.
Now, according to the natural order instituted by divine providence, material goods are provided for the satisfaction of human needs. Therefore the
division and appropriation of property, which proceeds from human law, must not hinder the satisfaction of man's
necessity from such goods. Equally, whatever a man has in superabundance is owed, of natural right, to the poor for
their sustenance. So Ambrosius says, and it is also to be found in the Decretum Gratiani: "The bread which you withhold belongs
to the hungry; the clothing you shut away, to the naked; and the money you bury in the earth is the redemption and freedom of the penniless." [4] I now want
to consider a number of points, more practical than philosophical, which are relevant to the application of the moral conclusion we have reached. These points
challenge not the idea that we ought to be doing all we can to prevent starvation, but the idea that giving away a great deal of money is the best means to this
end.

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Famine - Deontology

We have a moral obligation to stop hunger wherever it is needed.


MORRIS, Executive Director of the World Food Programme, June 30th 2005 (James T, Statement to the
Executive Director of the Security Council)
The United Nations has a Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, Jean Ziegler. In some ways, he and I could not be more different in our political and
economic outlooks -- he is a leading Swiss socialist and I am a confirmed American capitalist. We do not see the world through the same lens, but on one
point we could not agree more: vulnerable, hungry people -- especially women and children -- have a right to food.
And we agree that food should never be a weapon in war, or an instrument of diplomatic coercion. The most
eloquent affirmation of this principle came from President Ronald Reagan when he approved US aid to Ethiopia in 1985
during the great famine there, despite his strong antipathy toward the Mengistu Communist regime. He put it quite
simply: "A hungry child knows no politics." Whatever a government's perceived sins or the level of popular
indignation, we cannot withhold aid as a political tactic in an emergency.

Food is a basic human right that we have the resources to uphold.


BARRET, Professor of Applied Economics at Cornell, AND MAXWELL, Deputy regional director for CASE
International, 2005 [Christopher, Co-Director of the African Food Security and Natural Resources Management program at Cornell and editor of
the American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Food Aid After Fifty Years: Recasting its Role, Routledge, pg. 112]

Numerous authors note that the interest in human rights – and particularly the right to food – increasingly
dominates humanitarian and development debates. Never has there been a time when the capacity to
end global hunger has been greater, yet significant gaps remain between rights and reality. While the
global community is adequately providing access to food for 1.5 billion more people than it was able to
feed twenty years ago, and as obesity problems associated with excess food consumption become
widespread health concerns not only in the high-income countries but in middle- and lower-income
countries as well, more than 800 million people remain chronically undernourished and hungry. This
undernutrition problem is overwhelmingly concentrated in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, though
pockets of hunger and malnutrition remain in all countries, western industrialized societies as well.13 In
1999, the United Nations Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights clarified the right to
food when it attached a "general comment" on this right to the ICESCR. General Comment No. 12
defines this right as "having physical and economic access to food of adequate quality and quantity, and
having the means to obtain it, including access to food via means of production or Procurement." Access
should be sustainable and protect human dignity. The right to food is generally understood to constitute a
claim of the individual vis-a-vis the state in which s/he resides, and generates individual entitlements and
related obligations potentially enforceable in courts of law. This underlines the difference between needs
and rights – rights imply an obligation on behalf of other parties that needs do not.

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Africa War
Food insecurity causes conflict and civil wars in Africa.

Ellen Messer Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a visiting associate professor at the School of
Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University. She was previously director of the World Hunger Program at Brown University. Marc
J. Cohen, a political scientist, is Special Assistant to the Director General at the International Food Policy Research Institute in
Washington, DC. And Thomas Marchione, 2003 an anthropologist, is Nutrition Advisor at the Bureau for Humanitarian
Response, U.S. Agency for International Development. CONFLICT: A CAUSE AND EFFECT OF HUNGER Earthscape.
http://www.earthscape.org/p1/ES14596/

In sum, conflict has an enormous impact on human (food, economic, health, environmental, personal, community,
and political) security (UNDP, 1994)—an impact well beyond the immediate conflicts and combatants. Food insecurity can also
contribute to the outbreak of conflict. In the Horn of Africa in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, droughts devastated already
food-insecure, politically-oppressed populations, triggering chronic famines and civil wars. Ethiopia is a case in
point: in the 1970s the failure of Emperor Haile Selaissie's government to respond to food shortages touched off his
overthrow. Famines in the Sahelian nations of Upper Volta and Niger in the 1970s also triggered coups when
governments proved unwilling or incapable of responding to these conditions or made only selective responses.
The international community responded to these calamitous conditions through the UN system by strengthening the FAO's Global Information and Early Warning
System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS). It also strengthened alternatives to GIEWS— such as the U.S. Famine Early Warning System (FEWS)—by establishing
grain reserves and minimal food-aid obligations for donor nations. The capacities of the World Food Programme and bilateral agencies' capacities to deliver food
and development assistance were also expanded. Improved early warning and response (with more technically-advanced use of geographic information systems
and satellites plus onthe- ground informants) became part of a deliberate international political strategy to prevent food insecurity and prevent famine or civil
disruption. And this strategy was largely successful in preventing drought-induced famines in the 1980s and 1990s. But the famine experience of Ethiopia in the
1980s demonstrated that improvements in famine early warning are not sufficient to ensure the successful prevention or
mitigation of both famines and the possibility that denial of access to food will ignite conflict.

These conflicts cause global war.


Jeffrey Deutsch, 11/18/2002 Founder, Rabid Tiger Project, RABID TIGER NEWSLETTER, Vol. 2, No. 7, p.
http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html.
The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa. Civil wars in the Congo (the country formerly known as
Zaire), Rwanda, Somalia and Sierra Leone, and domestic instability in Zimbabwe, Sudan and other countries, as well as occasional brushfire and other wars (thanks
in part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones) turn into a really nasty stew. We've got all too many rabid tigers and potential rabid tigers, who are willing to
push the button rather than risk being seen as wishy-washy in the face of a mortal threat and overthrown. Geopolitically speaking, Africa is open
range. Very few countries in Africa are beholden to any particular power. South Africa is a major exception in this respect - not to mention in that she also
probably already has the Bomb. Thus, outside powers can more easily find client states there than, say, in Europe where the political lines
have long since been drawn, or Asia where many of the countries (China, India, Japan) are powers unto themselves and don't need any "help," thank you. Thus, an
African war can attract outside involvement very quickly. Of course, a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to fight each
other. But an African nuclear strike can ignite a much broader conflagration, if the other powers are interested in a
fight. Certainly, such a strike would in the first place have been facilitated by outside help - financial, scientific, engineering, etc. Africa is an ocean of troubled
waters, and some people love to go fishing.

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Africa War
Lack of food causes African instability – it forces people to cram into cities, increasing crime and
governmental capabilities
MORRIS, Executive Director of the World Food Programme, June 30th 2005 (James T, Statement to the Executive Director of the
Security Council)
Chronic hunger in the African countryside is a destabilizing influence that undermines political stability and
security. It spurs the continuing migration of rural people into cities, where the existence of at least some basic social services --
including subsidized or free food -- acts as a lure. There is a chance that as ARVs become more widely available -- undoubtedly first in urban areas -- they too will
act as a magnet in rural-urban migration. Waves of AIDS orphans are fleeing the countryside and arrive in cities without any
means of economic support, often contributing to social disintegration and crime. Hungry children are far more
easily recruited as child soldiers in places like northern Uganda. We need a dedicated effort through school feeding and other activities to keep these
children in rural areas and in school. Projections for urban population growth in sub-Saharan Africa are among the highest in the world with cities like Nairobi,
Lagos and Lusaka experiencing growth rates of over 6 percent per annum. The impact of rural urban migration on employment in Africa has been precisely the
opposite of Western Europe and the United States -- it has led to higher rather than lower rates of unemployment and social instability. At a certain point
the capacities of municipal governments are stretched to the limit and social demands are not met, aggravating
internal political and social tensions, especially among competing ethnic groups perhaps not accustomed to
sharing the same political space. There is little concerted investment to encourage Africans to remain in the countryside. African Governments and
international donors have neglected investment in agriculture which aggravates the problem of poverty. In countries like Uganda and Kenya, for example, over 80
percent of the poorest people are rural. Yet if you look at ODA statistics, the percentage of funding devoted to agriculture has dropped from 12 percent in the early
1980s to a mere 4 percent today. The current terms of trade for the continent's agricultural products are also poor, further undermining rural economies. This, by the
way, makes progress in the Doha Round on dismantling subsidies and other trade distorting practices critical for rural Africans. Competition for limited food
resources can ignite violence and instability. The fact that African agriculture is still so dependent on rainfall and there
are comparatively large pastoral populations contributes to population movements that can also incite conflict.
The violence in Darfur, for example, has reduced the movements of nomads and led to overgrazing in areas with
insufficient water, and the result has been drought-like conditions. We have seen this problem for decades not just in Sudan, but in Mauritania, Senegal and
other countries as well. When families can neither plant nor market livestock products, they begin to move. The economy in North Darfur is now
in shambles. Most markets are closed, fighting has reduced cultivation, and cereal prices have skyrocketed.

Lack of food in Africa exacerbates refugee crises.


Morris, Executive Director of the World Food Programme, June 30th 2005 (James T, Statement to the Executive Director of the
Security Council)

The continuing presence of large numbers of IDPs and refugees is inherently a threat to both political and economic stability and the
threat of hunger
presents significant complications in resettling them. It is difficult to persuade a family in Angola, for example,
to return to their home village if they do not have sufficient food tide them over to the next harvest. WFP invests
heavily -- when we get the funding -- in repatriation packages that allow ex-combatants to feed themselves and their families while they get re-established at home.
Food aid has been a critical component in disarmament, demobilization and reintegration efforts in Africa. In
the last five years alone, we have targeted 800,000 combatants in Liberia, Burundi, Somalia, DR Congo, Sierra Leone, Rwanda and Angola. Just this past
week we approved a new demobilization aid package for 150,000 former army and militia combatants in the DR Congo where pressure to demobilize and disarm
has grown in recent months. In the West Africa, where thousands are still displaced by over a decade of war, food aid is used to help restore social and economic
sectors. As one WFP report noted, “today’s stability is fragile, and progress is impossible if people lack basics like food,
shelter, and the means to keep their families healthy.” WFP food aid is now a tool to support education, help rebuild communities and give
people the means to safeguard their own welfare.

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Resource Wars

Food prices kept at current levels for the long-term lead to massive resource wars.

D-Day 08 (April 9, 2008 Wednesday 3:40 PM EST “World Food Crisis Update”, Lexisnexis accessed 7/29/08)
Apr. 9, 2008 (D-Day delivered by Newstex) -- Last week I tried to call some attention to the looming world food crisis that is resulting from soaring prices on
staples like rice and wheat. This week we've seen a continuation of that alarm as the crisis
has spread. Rice climbed to a record for a
fourth day as the Philippines, the biggest importer, announced plans to buy 1 million tons and some of the world's
largest exporters cut sales to ensure they can feed their own people. Rice, the staple food for half the world, rose as much as
2.9 percent to $21.60 per 100 pounds in Chicago, before paring gains. The price has doubled in the past year. Philippine President Gloria Arroyo announced
two rice tenders today and pledged to crack down on hoarding. Anyone found guilty of "stealing rice from the people'' will be jailed, she said. "We're in for a
tough time,'' Roland Jansen, chief executive officer of Pfaffikon, Switzerland-based Mother Earth Investments AG, said in an interview with Bloomberg
Television from Zurich today. Unless prices decline, "you will have huge problems of daily nutrition for half the
planet.'' Mother Earth holds about 4 percent of its $100 million funds in the grain. This is basically a preview of the resource wars
that will result if we continue to ignore the disastrous effects of climate change. Wealthy or resource-rich
nations will simply pull their goods from the world market and retrench to benefit their own citizens, and
as a result resource-poor nations will have little recourse. When you see wheat harvests becoming a more
prized commodity than heroin harvests in Afghanistan, you know that there's a major problem out there.
The impact on global security is great, as nations without access to adequate food supplies will create civil
unrest and perhaps even the toppling of many regimes. And it should be of particular concern where in the
world these sparks of violence and rioting would occur. Already we're seeing incidents in places like Egypt, Haiti, Ivory Coast,
Cameroon (40 died in riots in February), Uzbekistan, Yemen and Indonesia. But consider that nearly half of the 160 million in
Pakistan are "food insecure" and risk malnutrition and starvation from rising prices. We've seen that
grinding poverty can be a magnet for extremism and fundamentalism. This is a national security crisis as
well as a moral one. Another example of geopolitical concerns of world hunger is in Zimbabwe, a country with 10,000% inflation and almost totally
reliant on world food aid. In the midst of a political crisis where longtime dictator Robert Mugabe has apparently lost national elections but won't give up his
position, violence has spread, in particular with respect to seizing farms. Militant ruling party supporters invaded white-owned farms Monday, a day after
President Robert Mugabe urged Zimbabweans to defend seized land, fanning fears he would stage a violent crackdown to retain power [...] Invasions that
began Sunday worsened with intruders entering at least 23 farms in southern Masvingo province and northern Centenary, said Trevor Gifford, president of the
Commercial Farmers Union. In Masvingo where the police have been very cooperative, every time they remove invaders, within five, six hours theyre
reinvading, he told The Associated Press.

REGIONAL CONFLICTS ESCALATE TO GREAT POWER NUCLEAR WARS


Dean, 1995 (Jonathon, advisor on International Security Issues for the Union of Concerned Scientists, Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists, No. 2, Vol. 51, p. 45, March, lexis)

Experts throughout the world expect growing population pressures and increasing environmental stress to develop over the
coming decades into intense, far-reaching social unrest and regional conflict. Economic development is the solution, however
slow and uncertain it may be in coming. But the world also needs effective regional conflict-prevention procedures. Left on its
own, regional violence can lead to confrontation and even war between the great powers, including the United States, as might
occur, for example, in the event of conflict between Ukraine and Russia or between China and its neighbors. In the final
analysis, unchecked regional violence and the fear of further violence will lead more states to develop nuclear weapons. In past
decades, this process occurred in Israel, South Africa, India, Pakistan, Iraq, and presumably, in North Korea. A world with 20
or 30 nuclear weapon states would not only make a more effective global security system impossible, it would lead the present
nuclear weapon states to modernize and increase their weapons - and it would markedly increase the vulnerability of the United
States to direct attack.

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Resource Wars
Food prices could trigger war in the world’s poorest regions and increase the severity of current conflicts

Agence France Press Apr 12, 2008 WASHINGTON (AFP)


Rising food prices could have terrible consequences for the world, including the risk of war, the IMF has
said, calling for action to keep inflation in check."Food prices, if they go on like they are doing today ... the consequences
will be terrible," International Monetary Fund managing director Dominque Strauss-Kahn said."Hundreds of thousands of people will
be starving ... (leading) to disruption of the economic environment," Strauss-Kahn told a news conference at the close of the
IMF spring meeting here.Development gains made in the past five or 10 years could be "totally destroyed," he said, warning that social unrest could even lead
to war."As we know, learning from the past, those kind of questions sometimes end in war," he said. If the world wanted to avoid "these terrible
consequences," then rising prices had to be tackled.Skyrocketing prices on rice, wheat, corn and other staple foods like milk particularly hurt developing
nations, where the bulk of income is spent on the bare necessities for survival.Higher energy prices, too, are driving up the cost of food, as well as stoking
broader inflation.In recent months, rising food costs have lead to social unrest in several countries such as Haiti and Egypt. Thirty-seven countries currently
face food crises, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

High food prices cause massive resource wars.

CBS News April 18, 2008

The head of the International Monetary Fund warned Friday that soaring world food prices can have dire
consequences, such as toppling governments and even triggering wars. Dominique Strauss-Kahn told
France's Europe-1 radio that the price rises that set off rioting in Haiti, Egypt and elsewhere were an
"extremely serious" problem. "The planet must tackle it," he said. The IMF chief said the problem could
also threaten democracies, even in countries where governments have done all they could to help the local
population. Asked whether the crisis could lead to wars, Strauss-Kahn responded that it was possible.
"When the tension goes above and beyond putting democracy into question, there are risks of war," he said.
"History is full of wars that started because of this kind of problem." Strauss-Kahn was appointed last year to head the IMF.
He was a finance minister in the late 1990s in France. Also on Friday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy suggested a global partnership among financial
institutions, governments and the private sector to tackle the reasons for rising food prices. He also said France is doubling its food aid budget this year to
about $95 million because 37 countries are experiencing "serious food crises." Globally, food prices have risen 40 percent since mid-2007. The increases hit
poor people hardest, as food represents as much as 60-80 percent of consumer spending in developing nations, compared to about 10-20 percent in
industrialized countries, the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization has said. The World Food Program blames soaring food prices on a convergence of
rising energy costs, natural disasters linked to climate change, and competition for grain used to make bio-fuels like ethanol. Program spokesperson Benita
Luescher told CBS News correspondent Michelle Miller, "What we're seeing is a perfect storm." Meanwhile, officials said Thursday that United Nations
programs will distribute 8,000 tons of food and other help for Haitians in coming days as part of efforts to confront unrest over rising prices that set off recent
rioting. U.N. spokeswoman Michele Montas said food provided by the World Food Program will focus on children, pregnant women and nursing mothers in
the north, west and central regions of Haiti, the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere. Anger over surging food prices has threatened
stability Haiti, which has long been haunted by chronic hunger. Haitian lawmakers fired Prime Minister
Jacques Edouard Alexis over the rioting. Mamadou Bah, spokesman for the U.N. country team in Haiti, said the 8,000 tons are available
stock and will be distributed over the next two months starting Thursday. The U.N. Children's Fund will double its child feeding program to combat
malnutrition and spend some $1.6 million on water and sanitation projects in the northwest and Artibonite regions, Montas said. Globally, food prices have
risen 40 percent since mid-2007. Haiti is particularly affected because it imports nearly all of its food, including more than 80 percent of its rice. Once
productive farmland has been abandoned as farmers struggle to grow crops in soil devastated by erosion, deforestation, flooding and tropical storms.
Protests and looting in Port-au-Prince left at least seven dead last week, including a Nigerian officer in the
9,000-member U.N. peacekeeping force who was pulled from a car and killed Saturday. Three Sri Lankan
peacekeepers were injured by gunfire early last week. Brazilian members of the U.N. peacekeeping force distributed 14 tons of rice,
beans, sugar and cooking oil to 1,500 families in the capital's sprawling Cite Soleil slum Tuesday. The World Food Program and the U.N. mission in Haiti
continue to support various projects aimed at creating jobs, Montas said. Some 2,500 Haitians are already employed by these projects which have a combined
budget of $2.3 million, she said.

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Resource Wars

High food Prices Result in Regional Instability


Times 08’ [http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1717572,00.html]
Add this to the list of items that could seriously threaten world peace: food. Rocketing food prices — some of which
have more than doubled in two years — have sparked riots in numerous countries recently. Millions are reeling from sticker
shock and governments are scrambling to staunch a fast-moving crisis before it spins out of control. From Mexico to Pakistan, protests have
turned violent. Rioters tore through three cities in the West African nation of Burkina Faso last month, burning government buildings and looting stores.
Days later in Cameroon, a taxi drivers' strike over fuel prices mutated into a massive protest about food prices, leaving around 20 people dead. Similar protests
exploded in Senegal and Mauritania late last year. And Indian protesters burned hundreds of food-ration stores in West Bengal last
October, accusing the owners of selling government-subsidized food on the lucrative black market. "This is a serious
security issue," says Joachim von Braun, director-general of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in Washington. In recent weeks, he
notes, he has been bombarded by calls from officials around the world, all asking one question: How long will the crisis last?

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Failed States

Higher Food Prices Lead to an Increase in Failing States


Brown 07’ [Lester R. Brown 10-05-07 Earth Policy Institute MASSIVE DIVERSION OF U.S. GRAIN TO FUEL CARS IS RAISING WORLD FOOD PRICES
http://64.233.179.104/scholar?hl=en&lr=&scoring=r&q=cache:ldT8IgomYGcJ:www.miniwatt.it/mwarchivio/mwb2007/0705_Energ_Grain%2520to%2520fuel%2520(Lester%2520Brown).pdf+food+prices+and+ethanol]
The number of hungry people in the world has been declining for several decades, but in the late 1990s the trend reversed and
the number began to rise. The United Nations currently lists 34 countries as needing emergency food assistance. Many of these
are considered failed and failing states, including Chad, Iraq, Liberia, Haiti, and Zimbabwe. Since food aid programs typically
have fixed budgets, if the price of grain doubles, food aid will be reduced by half. Urban food protests in response to rising
food prices in low and middle income countries, such as Mexico, could lead to political instability that would add to the
growing list of failed and failing states.

Unless food prices decline, we will see serious malnutrition in over half the world’s population, which will
spark numerous conflicts and riots.

Sim and Rossingh 08 (Glenys and Danielle, April 8th, “Rice Jumps to Record on Philippine Imports, Curbs on Exports”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahRifIz3hjh0&refer=home

April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Rice climbed to a record for a fourth day as the Philippines, the biggest importer, announced plans to buy 1 million tons and some of
the world's largest exporters cut sales to ensure they can feed their own people. Rice, the staple food for half the world, rose as much as 2.9 percent to $21.60
per 100 pounds in Chicago, before paring gains. The price has doubled in the past year. Philippine President Gloria Arroyo announced two rice tenders today
and pledged to crack down on hoarding. Anyone found guilty of ``stealing rice from the people'' will be jailed, she said. ``We're in for a tough
time,'' Roland Jansen, chief executive officer of Pfaffikon, Switzerland-based Mother Earth Investments AG, said in an
interview with Bloomberg Television from Zurich today. Unless prices decline, ``you will have huge problems of daily
nutrition for half the planet.'' Mother Earth holds about 4 percent of its $100 million funds in the grain. China, Egypt, Vietnam and India,
accounting for more than a third of global rice exports, curbed sales this year to protect domestic stockpiles. The World Bank in Washington says 33
nations from Mexico to Yemen may face ``social unrest'' after food and energy costs increased for six
consecutive years. The Philippines, which imports about 15 percent of its rice, is tightening controls over domestic sales and buying more overseas.
The government's rice tenders are in April and May. ``I am leading the charge'' against any officials and businessmen who divert supplies or distort the price of
the staple food, Arroyo said in a televised speech today. ``The need to avert social tensions from high food prices'' has made ``food sufficiency even more
urgent,'' Abah Ofon, a soft-commodities analyst with Standard Chartered Plc, said in a report yesterday. Food importers may not be able to meet their needs
because of the export limits, Dubai-based Ofon said. Philippines Imports The Philippines may raise imports of milled rice by as much as 42 percent to 2.7
million tons this year from 1.9 million tons in 2007 to discourage speculation by local traders, Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap said March 26. The price
of rice from Thailand, the world's biggest supplier, may climb another 25 percent this year, said exports including Vichai Sriprasert,
former president of the Thai Rice Exporters' Association. Rice seeding in the U.S. is behind last year's pace because of flooding in growing regions, the
Department of Agriculture said yesterday. Farmers in six states have planted 11 percent of their crop versus 21 percent a year earlier. In Arkansas, the biggest
rice-producing state, about 2 percent of the crop was seeded, compared with 21 percent. Commodity prices are posting their seventh year of gains. The UBS
Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials more than tripled in the past six years as global demand led by China outpaced supplies
of metals and crops. Global Inflation Rising food prices are fueling global inflation. Wholesale costs in India rose 7 percent in the week ended March 22, the
fastest pace in more than three years. Soaring prices could lead to increased unrest, such as in Haiti recently, the United Nations said in a
report yesterday. Four people died in two days of rioting last week over food prices in Haiti, the western hemisphere's poorest country, the organization said on
its Web site. ``What we see in Haiti is what we're seeing in many of our operations around the world -- rising prices that mean less food for
the hungry,'' the report said, citing the United Nations World Food Program's executive director Josette Sheeran. Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt,
Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Mozambique and Senegal have also experienced unrest in the last several weeks related to food and fuel prices, according
to the report. Half Portions ``We are starting to see conflict and civil unrest,'' Francisco Blanch, who heads global commodities
research in London at Merrill Lynch & Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. ``Central banks will have to start taking measures to slow the
inflation pain down.'' The Philippine government had asked fast-food chains and restaurants to serve half portions of rice to cut waste, farm secretary Yap said
on March 19. Wheat traded in Chicago has more than tripled in three years, also threatening social stability. As many as seven people died from exhaustion or
in fights while waiting in bread lines in Egypt, according to police reports. Pakistan sent troops to guard flour mills in January. Standard Chartered yesterday
increased its 2008 rice forecast by 12 percent to $18.50 per 100 pounds. Rice futures for May delivery ended the day lower, dropping 52 cents, or 2.5 percent,
to $20.48 per 100 pounds on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price has jumped 48 percent this year. Stockpiles are at their lowest since the 1980s and demand
for the grain has gained 40 percent in two decades, Ofon said.

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Food Riots
HIGH FOOD PRICES ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO FOOD RIOTS, WHICH WILL
INCREASE WITHOUT REFORM
HOLT-GIMENEZ AND PEABODY 08 (“From Food Rebellions to Food Sovereignty: Urgent call to fix a
broken food system” Posted May 16th, 2008, Eric Holt-Giménez and Loren Peabody, Executive Director, Food
First/Institute for Food and Development Policy)

The skyrocketing cost of food has resurrected the specter of the "food riot." The World Bank reports that
global food prices rose 83% over the last three years and the FAO cites a 45% increase in their world
food price index during just the past nine months. The Economist’s comparable index stands at its
highest point since it was originally formulated in 1845. As of March 2008, average world wheat prices
were 130% above their level a year earlier, soy prices were 87% higher, rice had climbed 74%, and maize
was up 31%. Not surprisingly, people have taken to the streets in Mexico, Italy, Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal, Indonesia,
Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Yemen, Egypt, and Haiti. Over 100 people have been killed and many more injured. In Haiti, the
poorest country in the western hemisphere, with food prices increases of 50-100%, driving the poor to eat
biscuits made of mud and vegetable oil angry protestors forced the Prime Minister out of office. The food
crisis will get worse before it gets better. Without massive, immediate injections of food aid, 100 million
people in the Global South will join the swelling ranks of the word’s hungry. But the protests are not
simply crazed “riots” by hungry masses. Rather they are angry demonstrations against high food prices
in countries that formerly had food surpluses, and where government and industry are unresponsive. They
reflect demands for food sovereignty: people’s political and economic right to determine the course of their own food systems.

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Food Riots
FOOD PRICES THREATEN WORLD SECURITY AND CAUSE MASSIVE HUNGER
WARD 08 (The Toronto Star, April 20, 2008, “A vicious circle of misery; As the price of basic staples soars and
global aid reaches the breaking point, chronic hunger will become the norm,” Olivia Ward, Toronto Star
SECTION: NEWS; Pg. A09)

Salvadoran President Elias Antonio Saca declares it a "perfect storm" that "might become a hurricane
that could upset not only our economies but the stability of our countries." His words reflect frustration
over the complex causes of the price spikes, from historic lows in food stocks aggravated by global
warming to higher consumption of meat and dairy products in emerging economies, to escalating energy
costs, profiteering and increased production of biofuels that feed vehicles rather than people. With food
riots spreading from Haiti to Egypt, Yemen, Cameroon, Thailand, the Philippines, Uzbekistan and
beyond, the link between food security and world security has never been stronger. The "six degrees of
separation" between rich and poor countries are rapidly shrinking. Increasingly, the responsibility for warding off the
starvation that could trigger massive global unrest falls on the shoulders of aid providers and their donors. For countries like El Salvador, where
money buys 50 per cent less food than it did last year - and before the price spike, many were already
spending more than half their incomes on food - aid is especially urgent. Agencies are only beginning to lengthen the list of
destitute people who are dependent on their help. "In Salvador the poor used to survive on rice, and beans, and perhaps a tortilla," says Rowe. "They would add the
occasional piece of meat or chicken." Now, he says, "it's coming down to rice." And less of it. Once the fallback food of the poorest, rice is becoming unaffordable in
quantities that sustain life for the most destitute. Since last January its price has leapt by 80 per cent on world markets. The humble foodstuff almost seems targeted by
a malevolent agri-god. In Australia, drought has almost halted the largest rice mill in the southern hemisphere. In North Korea, a third of the crop was decimated by
floods. In the Philippines, higher fuel and fertilizer costs have escalated prices so much the government staged a dramatic crackdown on rice theft. The upward surge in
price may not last, experts say, but there's little chance of a return to the days of cheap and available rice supplies. "We will hit a peak, and it will drop pretty quickly,
but not anywhere near $300 a tonne," Robert Zeigler, head of the Philippines-based International Rice Research Institute, told Reuters. The current price is about $1,300
As a result, donor countries and aid agencies are wrestling with some of the toughest policy
a tonne.
decisions in recent memory. "There are short- and long-term things we can do to help," says Katarina Wahlberg,
social and economic policy co-ordinator for New York-based Global Policy Forum. In the short term, she says, wealthy donor countries have to increase their
contributions to WFP and other aid agencies. In 2007, Canada donated about $161 million of the agency's $2.9 billion budget. And, Wahlberg adds,donors
should begin to curtail domestic subsidies for producing biofuel, which dampen incentive for growing
food crops. In the long term, they must take a hard look at the side effects of globalization that make the poorest countries dependent on imported food, she says.
"Small-scale farmers should be producing for local markets." The UN will focus on rising food prices when its agencies meet in Switzerland on April 28. That's three
adults should have about 2,000
days away from the WFP's deadline for launching cutbacks if its plea for support isn't heeded. "We know that
calories a day to survive healthily," says Mia Vukojevic, Oxfam Canada's humanitarian co-ordinator. "If
you cut back to 1,000 they will get sick. Children are especially vulnerable to malnutrition. Hunger means
more illness, more medical care, more time to recover, more deaths. It's a vicious circle of misery."

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Economy Impact

HIGH WORLD FOOD PRICES ENSURE A GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN

Elliot, 2008 (Larry, Journalist, “Soft Landings and Hard Realities: The IMF Thinks We Can Ride Out This Crisis, But There Could
Be Far Worse News To Come”, Guardian Weekly, April 18, Lexis)

The first is that it is far too early to say that the worst is over. Henry Paulson, who does Summers's old job at the US treasury, said he expected
to see some impact from lower interest rates and tax cuts by the third quarter of this year. But that depends on the US housing market stabilising, because until
it does there is a real risk of a vicious circle of foreclosures, collapsing consumer confidence, rising unemployment, bigger losses for US banks, tighter credit
conditions and a falling stock market. The IMF says that risks are still heavily weighted to the downside. It produced an alternative scenario in which there
would be a further tightening of credit conditions, a far bigger drop in equity and property prices than it currently expects, a gloomier assessment of the
prospects for long-term productivity growth in the US, and an unwillingness on the part of foreign investors to continue buying US assets. It already believes
there is a 25% risk of a global recession; under this alternative scenario it says there would be a deeper and longer period of falling growth in the US,
accompanied by an extended period of weakness in the eurozone and spillover effects on the rest of the global economy through weaker trade flows and
tougher credit conditions. This scenario looks just as realistic as the fund's baseline soft-landing forecast. For one thing, there is a clear disjunction between the
idea that this is the biggest financial shock since the Depression and the idea that there will be only a short-lived and relatively mild impact on growth. In
addition, the soft-landing thesis conveniently ignores the other headwinds facing the global economy. These include rocketing
commodity prices that are contributing to a sharp rise in imported inflation, severe downward pressure on the dollar that threatens to become a disorderly
plunge, the still-sizeable global imbalances that have resulted in massive trade surpluses in Asia, and massive trade deficits in the US, which have been only
slightly reduced by a cheaper greenback and weaker growth. That list was supplemented last week by global hunger caused by rising
food prices. The world has suddenly woken up to what should have been blindingly obvious: trying to solve the problem
of climate change by using crops for biofuel was a short-term fix with potentially lethal result. If you encourage farmers
to use land that would have produced food for fuel, the price of food will go up. Gordon Brown considers this to be a serious crisis
and is right to call for a global response. Yet apart from the humanitarian need to help those going hungry, rising food prices
make it harder to avoid recession in the West, since they stifle consumer confidence and make policy-makers warier
about cutting interest rates.

High food prices kill the global economy


MARTIN FACKLER, June 15, 2008, New York Times“Surging Oil and Food Prices Threaten the World Economy, Finance
Ministers Warn “ http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/15/business/worldbusiness/15ministers.html?fta=y

OSAKA, Japan — The global economy faces a one-two punch from slowing growth and soaring fuel and food prices,
finance ministers from the world’s richest nations warned Saturday, though they stopped short of offering concrete solutions. Finance ministers from the Group
of
8 industrialized nations wrapped up a two-day meeting in Japan that was dominated by talk of rising petroleum prices, which have set off street protests across the
world. In a statement, the ministers said higher prices of oil and other commodities threatened the world economy
at a time when it was still reeling from the collapse of the housing market in the United States. The ministers urged oil-
rich nations to increase production to help reverse a trend that has pushed up oil prices to nearly $140 a barrel, a record. The ministers also warned that the rising cost of
oil and other commodities could spur broader increases of prices and wages. The specter of fighting inflation as the ministers try to revive their flagging economies
would “make our policy choices more complicated,” the statement said. The combination of inflation and low growth, known as stagflation, is difficult to escape
“For a long time, the world economy
because steps to spur economic activity, like lowering interest rates, can also lead to price increases.
enjoyed a combination of robust growth and low inflation, but it now faces headwinds,” the statement said.
“Elevated commodity prices, especially of oil and food, pose a serious challenge to stable growth worldwide.”

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Pakistan

Continued high food prices push Pakistan’s economy and government over the edge, especially now that
Musharraf has lost power.

Pakistan Newswire 08 (3/28, “World Bank says Pakistan must take immediate action to prevent its economy from collapse”,
l/n accessed 7/29)

Pakistan must take immediate action to prevent its economy from collapse, the World Bank has warned. It said painful
adjustments would be needed to prevent a crisis sparked by high oil and food prices. Under President Pervez Musharraf, the countrys economy flourished.
United Nations predicts 2008 growth at 6.5 despite its political troubles. But there are fears that growth, which has been led by consumer spending, could be hit
This is not yet a crisis, but the economic picture for Pakistan is not good, said World Bank
by imported inflation.
vice president Praful Patel. World Bank warned that the rising budget deficit, higher inflation, a growing
current account deficit and sinking foreign exchange reserves could all threaten Pakistans economy unless
the new government took urgent action. Growth can only continue if Pakistan adjusts to new global
reality, which includes high prices for oil, commodities and foodstuffs such as wheat, Patel said. The
comments came after Bank officials met with representatives of new Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani. Bank noted there were some positive areas in economy, as
foreign investment remained strong and stock market had posted gains. World Bank said its team discussed changes in oil imports, taxation and prioritising
government spending in order to lower budget deficit while protecting the poor. Subsidy programmes could include cash transfers, which were given to
families affected by devastating October 2005 earthquake, to offer an appropriate safety net for poor.

South Asian conflict ensures nuclear winter


Ghulam Nabi FAI, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE KASHMIRI AMERICAN COUNCIL,
July 8, 2001, The Washington Times, “The most dangerous place,” p. B4
The most dangerous place on the planet is Kashmir, a disputed territory convulsed and illegally occupied for more than 53 years
and sandwiched between nuclear-capable India and Pakistan. It has ignited two wars between the estranged South Asian rivals in
1948 and 1965, and a third could trigger nuclear volleys and a nuclear winter threatening the entire globe. The United States would
enjoy no sanctuary. This apocalyptic vision is no idiosyncratic view. The director of central intelligence, the Defense Department,
and world experts generally place Kashmir at the peak of their nuclear worries. Both India and Pakistan are racing like
thoroughbreds to bolster their nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery vehicles. Their defense budgets are climbing despite
widespread misery amongst their populations. Neither country has initialed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, or indicated an inclination to ratify an impending Fissile Material/Cut-off Convention.

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India Impact Module


Rising food prices is inviting an ecological catastrophe in India.

Business Line 08 (May 7, OPINION GLOBAL WARMING MAY AGGRAVATE INDIA'S WHEAT WORRIES, l/n accessed
7/30)

Processors and consumers are scurrying to cover their requirements and save themselves from further price increases. Relief from agricultural commodity
inflation (called 'agflation') is unlikely anytime soon. Governments have recognised the threat from high food prices and have begun to take precipitate action
to contain the damage. China, for instance, banned the use of grains for bio-fuels in June 2007. Russia imposed an export tax on wheat. India too has taken a
series of steps to shut out exports and augment imports. As a fallout of food inflation, the
'food versus fuel' debate is becoming shriller.
Should traditional foods be diverted for burning as fuel? How ethical is it to burn food when millions
across the world are hungry and cannot afford high-priced food? This debate is likely to continue for a while until the market
returns to more sensible levels. Climate change and global warming have added a new dimension to the already unnerving market uncertainty. There is
heightened awareness about the pernicious effects of rising average temperatures. Global warming, admittedly a slow phenomenon, can devastate agriculture.
Tropical countries are at greater risk of being affected by climate change. Adaptation and mitigation strategies need to be put in place to fight global warming.
India's concerns relating to grains, in general, and wheat, in particular, are becoming more
India's status
serious as time goes by. While demand continues to expand rapidly - driven by income growth,
demographic pressure and changing food preferences - output has turned unsteady in the last 6- 7 years.
Weather has turned suspect and water stress is becoming endemic. In frontline States such as Punjab and
Haryana grain mono-cropping has resulted in deterioration of soil health. The water table has declined to
alarmingly low levels. An ecological disaster is waiting to happen. The demand-supply mismatch follows rising demand
unmatched by production. This has an effect on market prices. There is now creeping dependence on wheat imports to augment domestic availability and rein
in prices. India may not exactly be food insecure today; but the widening supply gap does raise concerns over food security in the coming years. The per capita
availability of foodgrains today is less than it was 15 years ago. Grains are becoming inaccessible and unaffordable for the poor. So, the future looks uncertain
and somewhat scary. Rising energy prices too contribute to food inflation globally as the cost of food production
rises. Synthetic fertilisers, use of energy for mechanised farming and transportation costs rise with higher energy costs. So, high energy prices lift grain
prices worldwide; and India cannot remain insulated. Wheat could be one of the crops most seriously affected by global warming. Under Indian growing
conditions, wheat is at the limit of heat tolerance. Any further rise in average temperatures during the growing season December-March can potentially affect
yields. Indian maize, in addition to wheat, is another important grain that is susceptible to global warming. We need to take cognisance of this looming threat,
in addition to several others that already exist. The research priorities are clear. We need heat-tolerant varieties that consume water efficiently. Farm scientists
have their task cut out.

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Haiti
High food prices are forcing 2/3 of the population of Haiti to do the unthinkable; eating mud in an attempt to
relieve their starvation.

UPI 08 (July 29th, “Haitians, short of cash, eat mud” accessed via l/n)

People in Haiti have become so desperate for food that many are eating mud, U.N. officials said. U.N. officials say that
food is available in the impoverished Caribbean nation, The Guardian reported. But prices are rising so fast that the Food and Agriculture
Organization predicts that food will cost 80 percent more at the end of the year than it did in January. The high prices come in a country
where much of the population is already living on the edge. The United Nations says that two-thirds of Haitians live on less than $1 a day. In normal times, pregnant
women use mud cakes as a source of calcium. Now, they
are famine food. "It stops the hunger," said Marie-Carmelle Baptiste, who makes mud
cakes. "You
eat them when you have to." The cakes' raw material comes from a clay deposit outside Port-au-Prince. Baptiste said they
have become more expensive to make, but she does not want to raise her prices until she has to because she
knows that, for her customers, the cakes are the last resort.

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Egypt
Unless food price relief is given Egyptian civil unrest will continue to spark demonstrations and food
riots.

McDonough 08 (Challiss, Mar 24th, “Egyptian Bread Crisis Stirs Anger”, VOA News:
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2008-03/2008-03-24-voa49.cfm?CFID=19734031&CFTOKEN=71827604)

In Egypt, a shortage of subsidized bread has resulted in long lines and occasional clashes in which several people have been
killed. The president has ordered the army to use its bakeries to try to end the bread crisis, but the roots of the problem are more than just simple supply and
demand. Rising food prices and poverty have combined with corruption to create a bread problem that will not be easily solved. VOA
Correspondent Challiss McDonough has more from Cairo. An Egyptian woman carries a tray of bread at a public oven in Giza, Egypt, 16 Mar 2008 An
Egyptian woman carries a tray of bread at a public oven in Giza, Egypt, 16 Mar 2008 About 30 people are crowding around two small windows at a Cairo
bakery, shouting at each other and jostling for the best place in line. The heat is blistering already, and women in the crowd shade themselves from the sun with
plastic bags. A woman named Fatma says she waits here for two to three hours every day to buy bread for her family of five. Gesturing toward the chaos at
the bakery window, she says, "What can I say? You can see this bread problem for yourself. The prices of everything have gotten so high." This bakery is
selling round loaves of government-subsidized bread, known locally as "balady" or country bread. The price is fixed at five Egyptian piasters, or less than one
U.S. cent a loaf. In recent months, rising food prices have fueled a shortage of this subsidized bread, leading to long lines and short tempers. Several people
have been killed in fighting that has broken out in bread lines or clashes between customers and bakers. Last week, President Hosni Mubarak
ordered the army to use its bakeries to make balady bread in an effort to stem the shortage. But it is not simply a matter of supply and demand; even the
president acknowledged that part of the problem is corruption. Economist Hanaa Kheir el-Din is executive director of the Egyptian Center for Economic
Studies. "All other food prices have risen. There are a lot of food prices which rose sizably - look at the oil price for instance, rice, sugar, everything is
rising - but balady bread has been kept at five piasters a loaf, and the flour which goes into it is delivered at a much lower price while the baker can sell it on
the black market at several times the price," said Kheir el-Din. The corruption is not limited to selling subsidized wheat flour on the black market. At the
bakery, a heavy metal door swings open and then clangs shut quickly, and a man scurries away holding five round pieces of freshly baked bread. Another man
who gives his name only as Samir waves his hand angrily toward the door. He says the bakery employees let some people inside to get bread quickly while he
and the rest are waiting in line outside in the sun for hours. This is an emotional issue. Bread is such a vital staple food here that Egyptians use a
different word for it than other Arabic-speakers do - they call it "aish," which literally means "life." Egypt's government has taken
other measures to try to rein in rising food prices, including stopping the export of locally grown rice. And other governments in the region are facing similar
troubles - over the past few months, food prices have sparked demonstrations and riots in countries such as Morocco, Yemen and even
wealthy Saudi Arabia. In Egypt, the bread crisis is a symptom of a larger problem - one of stagnant wages that have failed to keep up with
the cost of living. There is no shortage of bread for those willing and able to pay higher prices for it. Some people who buy the subsidized product resell it just
down the street for twice the price. And unsubsidized bread is in plentiful supply at local markets, but that costs five times as much. Fatma says the
unsubsidized bread is too expensive, and the loaves are smaller than the real balady ones. She says she simply cannot afford to feed her children that way. She
says her family of five lives on a single pension of only 350 Egyptian pounds a month, or just over $60. That is similar to the wages earned by civil servants
and factory workers, and even doctors in public hospitals. Fatma says each of her family members eats two pieces of bread a day. If she had to buy
unsubsidized bread at five cents apiece, she would end up spending about one quarter of her monthly income on bread alone. The rising food prices
have helped fuel protests and strikes by working professionals around the country. Economist Hanaa Kheir el-Din says the entire wage
system needs to be overhauled, and the food subsidies cannot be removed until ordinary working Egyptians can earn a living wage. "You cannot pay a person
100 pounds a month as income and then let him buy whatever commodities are available in the market at market prices," said Kheir el-Din. "One has to revise
the subsidy program along with revising the income policy, particularly wages in the government sector." The World Bank says Egypt's economy has been
growing at a healthy rate of seven percent per year, but at the same time, poverty has been growing too. So Egypt's poor are not seeing the benefits
of the economic growth, and roughly 20 percent of the population is below the official poverty line, living on less than two
dollars a day. The last time the Egyptian government tried to remove subsidies on bread, in 1977, riots broke out and more than 70 people were killed. But
food subsidies now take up a huge portion of Egypt's annual budget, one that is growing as global food prices rise. Kheir el-Din says the subsidies need to be
targeted to the neediest people. "Balady bread in particular should not be made available to people who can afford better bread," he said. "This should be
targeted to the people who cannot afford to buy a 25- or 40-piaster loaf. But everybody may get this subsidized bread, and this is where the subsidy program
has to be revised." Back at the bakery, Fatma sighs as she stares at the raucous crowd pushing and shoving to get closer to the front. She shakes her head and
moves into line, saying under her breath, "May God have mercy on the poor."

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China Module
Increased food prices are severely hurting China’s ability to combat domestic hunger and threaten the
nation’s economic growth.
Peter Harmsen, Staff Writer, Agence France Presse, May 12, 2008, “China warns about inflation with price rises at near 12-year
highs”, Lexis
China's inflation rate rose to 8.5 percent in April, staying near 12-year highs, the government said Monday, warning
tougher measures were needed to handle the nation's most intractable economic problem. The figure, released by the National
Bureau of Statistics, marked a reacceleration after the consumer price index weakened to 8.3 percent growth in March from 8.7 percent in February.
"Growth in consumer prices remains high," the statistics bureau said in a press release. "At the moment, we must pay close attention to future
price trends and prioritise the control of price increases and inflation even higher." China's recent bout of inflation has been triggered
mainly by soaring food prices, and data from the statistics bureau data showed this remained the case last month. Overall food prices
increased by 22.1 percent in April from a year earlier, while pork, the favourite meat for the vast majority of Chinese, became 68.3 percent
more expensive over the same period. By contrast, non-food prices increased by a mere 1.8 percent in April from a year earlier, according to the statistics
bureau. "It is linked to the fact that the international prices of primary products, and especially grain prices, continue to rise, impacting domestic food prices,"
the statistics bureau said. China's communist rulers have made the war on inflation one of their main economic priorities this
year, fearing that rising prices could impact social stability as the costs of essentials rocket. Investment bank Goldman Sachs said
the figures were higher than market expectations, suggesting that "it is still far too early to claim success in the battle against inflation."
"As underlying inflationary pressures remain undiminished, it is vital for the government to keep its tightening policy stance to anchor inflationary
expectations," Goldman Sachs said in a research note. Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan on Friday warned global inflation posed a threat to the
country's speedy growth, saying high prices abroad constituted a major pressure for the economy. "Global inflation has
intensified, creating major outside pressure for China," Wang said in a speech at a financial forum in Shanghai. The way China is now importing inflation
reflects its ever-greater integration with the global economy, foreign economists said. "China's economy is quite well connected to the world
economy," said Louis Kuijs, a senior economist with the World Bank's Beijing office. "That means many of the price
impacts that are being felt at the global level, in global markets for commodities and for food products, are being felt in
China as well."

Despite avoiding the adverse effects of high food prices, China’s economy is poised to be severely hurt if
high food prices continue.
Steven Sitao Xu, Staff Writer, South China Morning Post, July 15, 2008, “Chinese economy is fit to weather stagflation” Lexis
The spectre of stagflation looms over much of the global economy. But what about mainland China? Its economy
continues to speed ahead, but recently the central bank has been slamming on the brakes to curb inflation. And, as
soaring oil and food prices in world markets show no sign of easing, some observers caution that the mainland economy
could also fall victim to sustained high inflation and slower growth. Chinese economic policymakers are certainly
worried about rising prices. True, its consumer price index fell from 8.5 per cent in April to 7.7 per cent in May, but that was
largely due to the effect of measuring the year-on-year increases from the already-elevated levels of last year. What is more, in
mid-June, the government was forced to raise the state-mandated prices of petrol and electricity. The move was long overdue.
More importantly, Chinese policymakers' chief goal is to engineer a soft landing of the economy. In fact, the decision to
raise energy prices underscores Beijing's commitment to move towards a more sustainable growth path by liberalising
politically sensitive but economically inefficient state price controls. The mainland has a long way to go to normalise prices
of fuel and other things. Thanks to its strong fiscal profile - the budget surplus is expected to be 0.5 per cent of gross domestic
product this year, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio is only about 20 per cent - it can easily afford to maintain fuel subsidies
via price controls. The costs of such subsidies are mainly borne by affected state-owned companies in the form of a profit
squeeze, not necessarily by Beijing and the yuan in the form of loss of investors' confidence.

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China

The combination of high food and oil prices has been uniquely detrimental for emerging markets like
China.
Peter Apps, Special Correspondent for the Birmingham Post, “Record oil and food prices hurt markets in East the most;
EMERGING MARKETS” July 9, 2008, Birmingham Post, Lexis
Most emerging economies beyond a handful of crude producers are suffering from record oil and food prices, with Asian
markets in general and China's in particular likely to be notable losers. South Africa and Turkey also stand out as being
vulnerable, while Russia and the Gulf States, which should be the main beneficiaries as crude prices soar, will still struggle
with high inflation and the risk of economic overheating. Emerging markets have proved largely "decoupled" from the
Western credit crunch but inflation is proving a global problem. Until late May emerging equities in particular had
been doing relatively well, more or less recovering losses earlier in the year when worries over Western banks sparked
global risk aversion. Some investors even moved into emerging markets, seeking diversification from a developed world
downturn. "The credit crunch was very much a Western phenomenon," said Mark Hammond, investment director for fund
manager Fidelity covering global, US and emerging markets. "Inflation is much more global." Hedge fund monitor EPFR
says fund flows into emerging markets had been broadly positive this year but have now turned negative everywhere
except the Middle East and Africa. Index provider Standard & Poor says that by its indices emerging equity markets lost
10.07 per cent in June, putting them down 12.5 per cent so far this year. Developed markets were also hit, but S&P says
they lost slightly less, down 7.90 per cent in the year to date. Benchmark MSCI emerging equities are down almost 17 per cent
so far this year, against 14 per cent for the equivalent global index. Emerging markets have in some ways been a victim of
their own success. Their resilient and ever-growing demand for natural resources, particularly food and fuel in India and
China, has prompting price rises that have in turn sparked inflation. Investment bank Morgan Stanley says Asia stands
to lose out the most from oil's rise as the region, especially China, is more energy reliant than other emerging markets.
Moreover, higher oil prices may also prompt Western buyers to seek suppliers closer to them due to higher delivery costs.
"The monumental energy price increases will be a 'game change' for Asia," the bank said in a research note.

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China key to food security


China is critical to world food security, their impact is unrivaled
Anthea Webb, Director of the World Food Program in China, China Daily, “WHY CHINA IS CRUCIAL TO WORLD FOOD
SECURITY” May 15, 2008, Lexis
For us, it is very hard to predict now how bad the impact of the calamity will be and what kinds of impact it will have on China, especially at a time when the
world is sliding into a food crisis. Whatever happened, China still played a very important role in the world's food security. Last
week Premier Wen Jiabao said that "China is deeply concerned about food security", and announced that the government would give $2 million to the
United Nations World Food Program (WFP) in response to the extraordinary difficulties it is facing as a result of rising food
prices. This brings China's donation to WFP in 2008 to $4.5 million: the largest donation ever made by China to WFP for use in
other developing countries. The premier also said that by ensuring China can provide sufficient food for its population of 1.3 billion
people, the country is making a major contribution to world food security. At a moment when world food security is
facing unprecedented challenges from rising prices, China's role is fundamental. Over the past year the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO)'s food price index has risen by 57 percent. On the international market, the price of staple foods like wheat and rice has more than
doubled. Shoppers from Beijing to Boston to Brussels have seen their grocery bill rise rapidly. For the wealthier consumers, who spend 10 to 20 percent of
their income on food, that means cutting back on the number of times they eat at restaurants, or on desserts and other treats. But for people who were just able
to make ends meet last year, the increases in prices of basic foods such as bread and rice are disastrous. The people who spend more than half of
their income putting food on the family table are now faced with the prospect of cutting back on more nutritious foods
like meat and dairy. The very poorest - those who survive on 50 cents a day - have started to reduce the number of meager meals
they eat each day. The WFP's executive director has called the effect a "silent tsunami". Like the tsunami that swept across the Indian Ocean in December
2004, this wave of high prices knows no borders. It is bringing a surge of suffering to poor people across the globe and its effects
such as increased malnutrition and poverty will be felt for years to come. What has caused this dramatic change in food prices? Firstly,
demand for food has changed. Once upon a time, grains like wheat, corn and rice, were used mainly as food for people. Today, however, these simple foods are
also used to produce feed for animals and ethanol for biofuels. Secondly, high crude oil prices have impacted the cost of producing food. Unfortunately, few
farmers are reaping the benefit of high food prices since the cost of fertilizers, fuel for their machinery and transport to market have also risen, meaning their
profit margins have decreased. Thirdly, the weather also plays a big part in agriculture and recent years have seen serious droughts in major grain-exporting
nations such as Australia. Cyclone Nargis, which devastated much of the Irrawaddy Delta in Myanmar, is also likely to contribute to higher rice prices, since it
has destroyed much of this year's crop. On top of the suffering currently facing the people affected directly by the Cyclone, the people of Sri Lanka and
Bangladesh, who had planned to buy some of that rice, will find it even harder to meet their needs this year. This uncanny convergence of factors - new
demands for grains, rising production costs and reduced supply because of bad weather - have created an economic "perfect storm". Where does China
fit into this picture? Already, by producing food for more than 20 percent of the world's population on less than 10
percent of its arable land, China is carrying a heavy burden for global food security. It is the world's largest producer of
grain, and production has increased every year for the past four years, reaching 501.5 million tons last year. More than
95 percent of the grain it needs is grown in China. The State Grain Administration estimates its grain reserves hold
between 150 and 200 million tons - enough to meet up to six months' consumption and well above the 18 percent of consumption
recommended by FAO. But China is not immune to food price pressure. Food, which accounts for 30 percent of the basket of
goods on which inflation is calculated, has been blamed for the high levels of inflation recorded in the past year. Those
increases have been attributed to rises in three main commodities: pork because a disease killed many of the herd last year; fruit and vegetables because the
snow and ice storms in southern China in January and February destroyed many horticultural crops; and cooking oil because it relies heavily on soybean
imports, the international price of which has grown steadily over recent years. The government has demonstrated its concern over the issue
of domestic food prices by introducing 10 measures to boost production and contain prices. These include incentives for
farmers, restrictions on exports and limits on the use of food for biofuel production. Many commodity analysts - including the
World Food Program - are counting on those measures to be successful. Notwithstanding the impressive increases in grain production in China over the past 30
years, the country's farmers face a tough challenge to keep increasing the amount of grain they grow at the same pace as demand is rising. The amount of land
and water available for agriculture is decreasing, so much will depend on them being able to get better yields. And the best incentive is for farming to be
profitable. Personally, I am optimistic that China's farmers can rise to this challenge, with the right kind of support from the
government. I have seen how hard-working farmers in rural Anhui province toil to grow wheat, rice, rapeseed and vegetables not just
for their families but for other provinces too. I have also seen that many of them still rely on buffaloes to till their fields and on rainfall to water
their crops. Better machinery and irrigation could help this productive province grow even more. China has already made so much progress, reducing the
number of undernourished people by more than 150 million over the past 30 years. Then, one in three Chinese children was malnourished; today just 7 percent
of children are too short for their age, a sign of poor nutrition. In fact, the average 6-year-old boy in China today is 6 kg heavier and 6 cm taller than he would
have been 30 years ago. That's concrete evidence of better diets and health. China, perhaps better than any other developing country, has seen first
hand how economic development depends on food security. It knows that growing economies need healthy, well-
nourished and well-educated workers. Now the world is counting on its farmers being able to continue increasing the
amount of grain they can grow, to meet growing requirements at home and to stabilize prices. WFP is hoping that it can learn
from China's tremendous progress, and export some of the lessons - as well as financial and other support - to developing countries which are still struggling
with poverty and hunger.

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Poverty
Rising food prices are forcing 2 and a half million people into poverty with each slight increase in the
Philippines alone.

Dumlao 08 (Doris, The Philippine Inquirer, “ADB: High food prices affect poor most, cause more poverty” May 8, reposted at
http://povertynewsblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/adb-high-food-prices-affect-poor-most.html)

MANILA, Philippines -- For every 10 percent increase in food prices, about 2.3 million more Filipinos fall into
poverty, a new study by an Asian Development Bank economist suggests. The conclusion of a new research paper -- “Has Inflation Hurt the Poor?
Regional Analysis in the Philippines” authored by ADB economist Hyun Son -- was that inflation was hitting poor Filipino consumers harder than the more
affluent ones. "Specifically, the poor are highly sensitive to the price changes in food, particularly staple food
items such as rice,” the study said. "In addition, concerns over rising food prices are surmounting because such increase can undermine the gains
from poverty reduction and human development that developing countries have experienced for the last decade or so,” it added. Estimates on the price
elasticity of poverty by commodity in the Philippines suggested that a
10 percent increase in non-food prices -- such as fuel and
utilities -- would drive an additional 1.7 million people into poverty. Separating the impact of specific commodity increases,
the study said a 10 percent increase in the price of rice would force an additional 660,000 Filipinos into poverty. An increase in fuel prices of 10 percent was
also seen driving more people into poverty, but with a smaller headcount of 160,000. The study showed that since 2003, the price increases in the Philippines
have led to greater sufferings for the poorest segment of the population. The effects of rising food prices were observed to be different across households.
"Rising food prices may lead to income gains for net producers. However, many urban and rural poor who
are food consumers and not necessarily producers suffer the most from rising food prices,” the study said. “Thus,
with increasing food prices, some will gain and some will lose,” it said. Using household surveys and detailed price data, the study analyzed the impacts of
higher food prices on the average standard of living and on poverty for the Philippines. The
study showed the dominating effect of
rising food prices on poverty over the period of 2003-06. “In particular, the severity of poverty rose by
16.8 percent while the standard of living declined by about 1 percent over the period,” the study said. The
study also suggested that the decline in the standard of living due to food price increases was particularly
greater for the poorest of the poor. “At worse, these households struggling to meet the minimum standards of living might have no choice but
to cut down their expenditures on health and children's education,” the study said. “Hence, safety measures will be required particularly for the poorest of the
poor to be able to cushion the negative impact of higher food prices on their spending,” it said. The study thus proposed an alternative price index for the poor
Finally, the study found that the increase in food prices has been
that takes into account the consumption patterns of the poor.
the major factor causing high inflation in the Philippines in recent periods. The non-food items of consumption have
played a relatively minor role. “It is wiser thus to direct government policies towards stabilizing food prices,” the study said. “Given these
current trends moreover, monetary policy may not be an effective tool to combat rising inflation. Such policies may push the economy into recession, which
will hurt the poor even more.” The surge in the country's inflation rate to a three-year high of 8.3 percent in April has put the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
under more pressure to tighten monetary policy. During the BSP's latest quarterly inflation briefing Thursday, top BSP officials said there were indications that
demand pressures, and not just supply shocks, were also contributing to the sharp increases in consumer prices and that the central bank would have a role to
play in cooling inflation and managing people's expectations. BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo said: “We're looking at two things. First, we're looking
at the second-round effects. If there are wage adjustments and transport fare adjustments, even in terms of utilities charges, once you see an early sign of
evidence of second round effects, I think monetary policy will have a good scope for addressing inflation.” The second trigger, Guinigundo said, was the role
of the inflation expectations channel in managing actual inflation.

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HIV/AIDS

Famine exacerbates and contributes to HIV/AIDs transmission, increasing risk factors such as migration
and transactional sex.
Wilson Center, 2006 Food Security and Its Impact on International Development and HIV Reduction, 10-16
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?topic_id=116811&fuseaction=topics.event_summary&event_id=201764

Suneetha Kadiyala, a scientist at the International Food Policy Research Institute, argued that food insecurity—a situation in which people cannot get enough
food to lead fully productive lives—increases the risk of exposure to HIV/AIDS through factors such as increased
migration and transactional sex. Conversely, she said, HIV/AIDS can exacerbate food and nutrition insecurity: HIV/AIDS-related illness
and the diversion of resources to AIDS treatment result in labor and capital shortages that threaten food supply.
Additionally, AIDS deaths degrade formal and informal rural organizations, leading to a loss of farming knowledge. In food-scarce areas, HIV-positive
individuals are more susceptible to malnutrition, as HIV raises energy requirements by 10-30 percent in adults.
Of the 25 countries with the highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS, 21 are receiving assistance from the WFP. Kadiyala noted that malnutrition is not only
associated with a decrease in immune function, it also compromises effectiveness and increases toxicity of anti-
retrovirals. Due to the strong connections between the prevalence of the virus and malnutrition, Dey said that food security should be a priority for donor
organizations, specifically those with large AIDS funding arms. The 2007 budget for the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), for example,
exceeds $4 billion, some of which Dey believes should be rerouted to improving nutrition: “There is a growing body of literature that
indicates nutritional support is a vital part of a comprehensive response to HIV/AIDS.”

AIDs is a unprecedent threat to all life on the planet.


Mutuma Mathiu, AFRICA NEWS, July 15, 2000 Lexis
Every age has its killer. But Aids is without precedent. It is comparable only to the Black Death of the Middle Ages in the terror it evokes and the
graves it fills. But unlike the plague, Aids does not come at a time of scientific innocence: It flies in the face of space exploration, the manipulation of genes
and the mapping of the human genome. The Black Death - the plague, today easily cured by antibiotics and prevented by vaccines - killed a full 40 million
Europeans, a quarter of the population of Europe, between 1347 and 1352. But it was a death that could be avoided by the simple expedient of changing
addresses and whose vector could be seen and exterminated. With Aids, the vector is humanity itself, the nice person in the next seat in the bus. There is
nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. Every human being who expresses the innate desire to preserve the human genetic pool through the natural mechanism of
reproduction is potentially at risk. And whereas death by plague was a merciful five days of agony, HIV is not satisfied until years of stigma
and excruciating torture have been wrought on its victim. The plague toll of tens of millions in two decades
was a veritable holocaust, but it will be nothing compared to the viral holocaust: So far, 18.8 million people
are already dead; 43.3 million infected worldwide (24.5 million of them Africans) carry the seeds of their inevitable
demise - unwilling participants in a March of the Damned. Last year alone, 2.8 million lives went down the drain, 85 per cent of
them African; as a matter of fact, 6,000 Africans will die today. The daily toll in Kenya is 500. There has never been fought a war on these shores that was so
wanton in its thirst for human blood. During the First World War, more than a million lives were lost at the Battle of the Somme alone, setting a trend that was
to become fairly common, in which generals would use soldiers as cannon fodder; the lives of 10 million young men were sacrificed for a cause that was
judged to be more worthwhile than the dreams - even the mere living out of a lifetime - of a generation. But there was proffered an explanation: It was the
honour of bathing a battlefield with young blood, patriotism or simply racial pride. Aids, on the other hand, is a holocaust without even
a lame or bigoted justification. It is simply a waste. It is death contracted not in the battlefield but in
bedrooms and other venues of furtive intimacy. It is difficult to remember any time in history when the
survival of the human race was so hopelessly in jeopardy.

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HIV/AIDS
Elevated food prices leads to an inability to treat HIV/AIDS in Africa

Mallard 08 (Cole, July 30th, reporting from Washington, D.C. for VOA News, http://www.voanews.com/english/Africa/2008-07-
30-voa25.cfm)

AIDS experts say treating HIV/AIDS effectively requires more than medications such as anti-retroviral drugs; it
requires good nutrition, food security and sustainable livelihoods. This is one of the topics to be discussed at the 17th
International AIDS conference in Mexico City. Stephen Lewis, the former UN special envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa, is now co-director of AIDS Free World, an
international organization that promotes timely, effective global responses in the fight against HIV/AIDS. From Toronto, Canada, he told Voice of America reporter
Cole Mallard that without
good nutrition it’s not possible for a person with HIV to handle the effects of anti-
retroviral drugs and enhance their performance. Alicia Keyes (l) and Stephen Lewis Stephen Lewis and singer Alicia Keys at Toronto
AIDS conference in 2006 He says food security is an issue because “Africa is desperately short of food, the world doesn’t have the food to deliver, and the ability
to produce enough food is increasingly limited.” He adds that most Africans earn their living through agriculture, and if one’s income is threatened by sickness,
drought or famine, “then you’re in terrible difficulty; you simply cannot survive.” But Lewis says agricultural productivity can be improved. “I think that Professor
Jeffrey Sachs has shown that with his millennium villages, by bringing in better seeds and better fertilizer and some small irrigation; you get a tremendous increase
in crop productivity when you do that.” He adds that international trade agreements can help increase Africa’s ability to sell its produce and revive the economy.
He says focusing on the grass roots level would enhance food availability as well, “but it requires a coordinated approach which is not in place, and I think these
things always come with time, but they come late, and in the process of coming late you lose tremendous numbers of lives. ”The former UN AIDS envoy says
the current rise in global food prices adds to the problem because countries that normally import food can’t
afford it (he says that’s also true of oil prices) and agencies that deliver food to countries in crisis, like the World Food Program, are also compromised by
constantly having to make additional appeals. All this, he says, comes down to the fact that “for a grandmother who’s buried
her own adult children and is looking after four or five grandchildren, and the food prices at the local market
are so high that she can’t afford to feed her kids on the weekend, and they only get one meal a day at school,
it’s a real crisis for the family.”
A lack of the nutrition gained from food makes the HIV/AIDS pandemic worse.

North, editor of Red Cross Red Crescent, 2006 (Rosemarie North, International Federation editor of the Red
Cross Red Crescent, Food Security-a paradigm shift, Google, June 29, 2007)

In homes where someone has HIV/AIDS, much of the household income will be spent on medicines or doctors. Often,
someone will drop out of school or the workforce to care for an ill family member. There is a lethal nexus between food and
HIV/AIDS. People living with HIV/AIDS need more calories and nutrients each day. In addition, malnutrition hastens the
progress of HIV/ AIDS and opportunistic infections. Finally, without good nutrition, antiretroviral drugs are not as effective.

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HIV/AIDs
Malnutrition exacerbates HIV/AIDS by making people more susceptible to the disease. As well,
HIV/AIDS leads to malnutrition by causing diseases that take nutrients from the body.
J van Liere, member of the Royal Tropical Institute, September 2002 (Marti J van Liere, member of the
Royal Tropical Institute of the Netherlands, HIV/AIDS and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa, September
2002, pg. 3)

Both AIDS and malnutrition are important killers in sub-Saharan Africa. With 3 million AIDS deaths in 2001, we can calculate
that 6 deaths per minute are due to HIV/AIDS. Most of those who die experience nutritional problems. The latest figures of the
FAO estimate that there are still more than 800 million people affected by hunger. Altogether there are 12 deaths per minute
associated with malnutrition. Both AIDS and malnutrition are driven by poverty, conflict, and inequality. There is strong
evidence that they operate in tandem, both at the individual level and at the social level : Malnourished individuals are
more susceptible to become HIV-infected and more susceptible to secondary infections HIV infection and the secondary
infections lead to malnutrition (increased nutritional requirements, diarrhoea, anorexia) Exclusive breast feeding,
considered one of the most cost-effective nutrition behaviours for adequate growth and nutritional status of the baby, is one of
the modes of transmission of the virus from the mother to her baby Finally, the disease leads to losses in productivity,
labour, income and will thus endanger the food security situation of the members of an AIDS affected household.

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Biodiversity
Rising food prices will force arable land increases which will come at the cost of biodiversity

Blas 08 (Javier, London Financial Times Asia Edition, Jan. 22nd, l/n accessed 8/1)
Scarcity of water and arable land means that the boom in food prices could last longer than most expect, a new study has warned. The report, published today
by the UK-based consultants Bidwells Agribusiness, said the
boom - until now fuelled by rising demand from emerging
countries and the biofuels industry - would be exacerbated by supply constraints. Richard Warburton, head of
Agribusiness at Bidwells, said it was impossible to know yet whether the agricultural market was facing a structural or a cyclical change. But he warned that
even if it was cyclical, "we are up against a long cycle of rising prices". Wheat and soyabean prices have surged to records, corn prices hit a 12-year high this
year and rice prices have doubled in the past year to levels not seen since the mid-1990s. Meat, poultry, eggs and dairy products prices have also increased
sharply. Instead of focusing on the current factors behind rising food prices, such as growing populations, increasing income levels and new demand from the
It said water and land
biofuels industry, the report for the first time examines the limitations faced by farm production in the medium term.
scarcity, together with slow improvement in agronomics, would be key factors shaping food production.
"Sustainability will ultimately be defined by food production per area of land and quantity of water used, as these are the obviously limiting factors."
Arable land, in particular, could only be increased at the cost of "massive destruction of forest and
habitats and extreme pressure on biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity". "Balancing
environmental sustainability against the needs of an ever larger and increasingly hungry population may
well prove to be the biggest challenge of the 21st century," the report said. For the past half century, the world has been able to
increase output thanks to rising productivity boosted by genetic advances, such as cereal seeds resistant to drought, and better agronomics, such as the wider
use of irrigation, fertilisers and pesticides. But Mr Warburton said that "yields gains have already plateaued" after more than doubling from 1.1 tonnes per
hectare in 1950 to 2.7 tonnes per hectare in 2000. "It is unquestionable . . . that constraints on (farm) production are tightening," the report said. In addition to
land scarcity, lack of water would hamper agriculture. China and India, the world's two most populated countries, would be forced to provide more water to
their rapidly growing urban populations rather than to their farmers, which would cut agricultural output. Water was also an issue in highly productive areas
such as California and southern Spain, the report said. Sugar price surge, Page 24 28E 40L 26U www.ft.com/foodprices

Biodiversity loss ends in an absolute extinction.

Takacs, 96 (David, teaches environmental humanities @ the Institute for Earth Systems Science and Policy @ Cal State, The Idea
of Biodiversity: Philosophies of Paradise, p 200-201)

So biodiversity keeps the world running. It has value and of itself, as well as for us. Raven, Erwin, and Wilson oblige us to think about the
value of biodiversity for our own lives. The Ehrlichs’ rivet-popper trope makes this same point; by eliminating rivets, we play Russian roulette with global
ecology and human futures: “It is likely that destruction of the rich complex of species in the Amazon basin could trigger rapid changes in global climate
patterns. Agriculture
remains heavily dependent on stable climate, and human beings remain heavily
dependent on food. By the end of the century the extinction of perhaps a million species in the Amazon
basin could have entrained famines in which a billion human beings perished. And if our species is very unlucky, the
famines could lead to a thermonuclear war, which could extinguish civilization.” 13 Elsewhere Ehrlich uses different
particulars with no less drama: What then will happen if the current decimation of organic diversity continues? Crop yields will be more difficult to maintain in
the face of climatic change, soil erosion, loss of dependable water supplies, decline of pollinators, and ever more serious assaults by pests. Conversion of
productive land to wasteland will accelerate; deserts will continue their seemingly inexorable expansion. Air pollution will increase, and local
climates will become harsher. Humanity will have to forgo many of the direct economic benefits it might have withdrawn from Earth's
wellstocked genetic library. It might, for example, miss out on a cure for cancer; but that will make little difference. As ecosystem services falter,
mortality from respiratory and epidemic disease, natural disasters, and especially famine will lower life
expectancies to the point where cancer (largely a disease of the elderly) will be unimportant. Humanity will bring
upon itself consequences depressingly similar to those expected from a nuclear winter. Barring a nuclear conflict,
it appears that civilization will disappear some time before the end of the next century – not with a bang
but a whimper.14

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Genocide
Those benefiting from high food prices are profiting from current and eventual genocide from mass
starvation.

Cook 08 (Richard, April 24, “Crisis in Food Prices Threatens Worldwide Starvation: Is it Genocide?”
Richard C. Cook is a former U.S. federal government analyst, whose career included service with the U.S. Civil Service Commission,
the Food and Drug Administration, the Carter White House, NASA, and the U.S. Treasury Department.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8778)

First of all, let’s get rid of the idea that we are seeing “impersonal market forces” at work. “Supply and demand” is
not a “law”—it’s a policy. If a seller has an article in demand it’s a matter of choice whether he charges a premium when he offers it for sale. If he’s a decent,
honest soul, maybe he won’t necessarily charge all the market will bear, particularly if the item is a necessity of life, such as food. Or maybe there will be a
responsible public authority around that will prohibit price gouging or else subsidize the purchaser, as often happens in credit markets. Of course public
spirited action like this is itself a declining commodity in a world afflicted with the kind of market fundamentalism and rampant privatization that has been the
rage since the 1980s Reagan Revolution. Second, let’s ask the question which any competent investigator should pose when starting out on the trail of a
possible crime: “Who benefits?” Indeed we may be speaking of a crime on the scale of genocide if the events in question are a)
avoidable; in which case the crime is one of negligent homicide; or b) planned, where we obviously have a conspiracy among the contributing parties.
Those who benefit are obviously the ones who finance agricultural operations, those who are charging
monopoly prices for the commodities in demand, the various middlemen who bring the products to
market after they leave the farm, and the owners or mortgagees of the land, retail space, and other assets
required to conduct the production/consumption cycle. In other words, it’s the financial elite of the world
who have gained complete control of the most basic necessity of life. This includes not only the international financiers who
provide capitalization, including the leveraging of trading in commodity futures up to the 97 percent level, but even organized crime groups which the U.S.
And is all this part of a long-term strategy by international
Department of Justice says have penetrated world materials markets.
finance to starve much of the world’s population in order to seize their land, control their natural
resources, and enslave the rest who fear a similar fate? Already millions of people are losing their homes
to housing inflation and foreclosure. Is actual or threatened physical starvation the next part of the
scenario? And where are the governmental authorities whose job it is to protect the public welfare both at
the national and international levels? These authorities long ago allowed a situation to develop, including
in developed nations like the U.S. , where people in localities no longer have the simple ability to feed
themselves, even in emergencies. And not one of the candidates remaining in the U.S. presidential
election—John McCain, Hillary Clinton, nor Barack Obama—has addressed the food pricing issue. Indeed,
all three are part of a government that has gone so far as to exclude much of the rising cost of food from measurements of inflation, an innovation that took
place on Bill Clinton’s watch. It is now April. Already food has run out in some parts of the world. In a few months winter will come, at least in the Northern
Hemisphere. What will happen then? Are you certain food will be on your table? And suppose you wanted to make a
contribution to your own well-being and to that of your family and community by going into farming. In most parts of North America you can look around and
see plenty of underutilized land. But could you do it? Could you buy or lease land and pay taxes on it after the galloping inflation of the real estate bubble?
Could you get bank loans for equipment and operating expenses under today’s constrained credit conditions? Could
you afford fuel for your
equipment when petroleum costs over $115 a barrel? Is water readily available from developed supplies
and is electricity available at regulated prices? Could you purchase anything other than genetically-
modified seed? Would local supermarkets buy your produce when your prices are undercut by massive
corporate distributorships importing food from abroad? Does the system even exist in your home town for
marketing of local farm products? And does anyone in power even care? Well, whether they do or not, “We the People”
should care. One of the worst aspects of the consumer society is the separation between the individual and the products of the earth we utilize. We always
assume that whatever we need will be there so long as we have money in our bank account or the ability to charge on a credit card and pay later. Such
assumptions are losing their validity. Back in the 1960s people who were starting to understand these things began a modest “back to the land” movement.
Today it is time to start one again. Except this time we need to do it right by demanding government policies that support it. This means low-cost credit, price
supports, affordable utilities, favorable tax policies, and decisions by government and businesses to “buy local.” Food
production cannot safely
be left in the hands of agribusiness and international finance capitalism any longer.

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Genocide
Rising food prices nullify the fight against poverty and re-entrench an oligarchic principle of population
correction through genocide.

Aspects, 7-29-08 (http://news.aspects.cc/economy/genocide)


The simple fact is that the world is not “too full.” It might feel like it is, sometimes, as our basic economic infrastructure crumbles round our ears, and as
Today’s hikes in oil and food prices are not the
poverty forces the people of large parts of the planet into having large families.
result of population fuelled demand, unavailability, or as a lack of capability to produce. They are purely
artificial, as the result of Policy. And what is that Policy? In a word: GENOCIDE. The population of this planet is
staring a dark age in the face. Culturally, we are already there. But in terms of human suffering, the period we are entering now
will put all historical genocides in the shade. The policy has been stated many times: reduce the
population of the planet from its present levels. At April’s G7 meeting of finance ministers in
Washington, the World Bank issued statements warning of the impoverishment of entire regions of the
world as the result of the food crisis, a situation they believe will not change in the coming year. Robert
Zoellick, President of the World Bank, issued a statement at the same meeting, stating that the rise in food
prices would be likely to nullify the fight against poverty. As the saying goes, “no shit, Sherlock!” These
guys can make their statements with confidence, because they know of the activities of speculative kingpin, George Soros, and people like him. For those
unaware, Soros was behind the near collapse of the British Pound in 1992. Georgie has moved on from currency speculation. That form of profiteering only
caused economic hardship. Today, he is aiming fairly and squarely at human death. On the 18th June, Goergie told a Budapest newspaper: “Rather
than
expecting energy prices to go down somehow, we should accept that it must go further up first, for us to
be able to solve the [long-term] problem. Prices must go up first so as to encourage people to consume
less.” So Georgie wants us to consume less, which might be fine for you or I, who probably don’t
struggle too much for our three meals a day. What happens if you are one of the several billions who only
eat once per day? Do they need encouragement to consume less? Georgie’s mechanism for pushing prices up is typified by his
recent aquisition of all the commodities trading and merchandising business of the giant multi-national ConAgra Foods. This aquisition was made by a private
investment fund managed by Soros Fund Management LLC, acting as part of a consortium with New York hedge fund Ospraie Management and New York
asset manager General Atlantic. The $2.8 billion deal is estimated as the largest acquisition ever by a hedge fund. The agreement includes 144 ConAgra
facilities, located primarily in North America. Renamed Gavilon, the new company provides physical distribution and merchandising of grains, feed
ingredients, fertilizer, and energy products; as well as agriculture, energy, and other commodity trading activities, and “risk management services” — i.e.,
commodity futures derivatives speculation. It doesn’t stop there. It goes without saying that Georgie is right in there pushing biofuels. Another
string
to the bow, the biofuels insanity is a strategy that even the greenies don’t want. The ConAgra operations
provide “procurement and marketing services” for ethanol and bio-diesel producers, supply chain
infrastructure, as well as financial hedging. Georgie’s not alone of course. Politicians and scientists have all been
pushing the insanity that biofuels are the answer to the non-existent Global Warming problem. And if
Biofoolery is not enough, GM is being pushed harder than ever. GM crops are designed to reduce diversity of plant species through cross-pollenation, and
more importantly, guarantee control of the food supply chain. The decades long destruction globally of small farming, to be replaced with huge factory farms
planting seeds only ever purchased from Monsanto adds to that effect. We even have these two insanities of GM and biofoolery getting it together, with
scientists at Michigan State University messing with the genetic makeup of corn to develop a strain that can break down its own cellulose, thus making
fermentation easier, and biofuel production more efficient. The problem for the corporations, at least in the short term, is that the risk of cross-pollenation
makes GM unpopular. So until the use of GM is universally accpepted, they need to do something about that. Just another of the “conincidences” in the world,
is Colony Collapse Syndrome. Bees, the little stinging insects that we depend upon to pollenate our food supply, are dying out in unprecedented numbers. Is it
really a coincidence that this happens within a few years of the development of GM crops, or that certain GM crop manufacturers also happen to belong to a
cartel of pharmasutical/chemical/insecticide manufacturers and have had their products banned because they are harmful to bees?

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Food Security - Generic


Foods security outweighs all other impacts – it makes every impact inevitable
Trudell, J.D. Candidate 2006, 05 (Robert H., Fall, Food Security Emergencies And The Power Of Eminent
Domain: A Domestic Legal Tool To Treat A Global Problem, 33 Syracuse J. Int'l L. & Com. 277, Lexis)

Today, more than 842 million people - nearly three times the population of the United
States - are chronically hungry. 43 "Chronic hunger is a profound, debilitating human
experience that affects the ability of individuals to work productively, think clearly, and
resist disease. It also has devastating consequences for society: it drains economies, destabilizes
governments, and reaches across international boundaries." The enormous number of chronically 44

hungry people conjures up a critical question: how can we feed these people? While the rate of population growth has been leveling
off in the developed, wealthy countries of the world, the populations of the poorest countries and regions of the world still grow at an
alarming pace. 45 Population statisticians refer to this phenomenon as population momentum. 46 Of the seventeen countries whose
In sub-Saharan Africa, millions are
women average six or more births in a lifetime, all but two are in Africa. 47

undernourished and millions more live on a dollar a day, making it the most poverty-
stricken region in the world today. [*285] Chronic hunger and poverty are the rock-and-a-hard-place in
48

between which the people of sub-Saharan Africa find themselves today. One tragedy endlessly feeds upon and exacerbates the other
because a person needs money to buy food, but she (or he) cannot earn money when she is chronically hungry. 49
The food
security issues of this region are a global concern. Silvio Berlusconi, Prime Minister of Italy, and Chairperson
of the 2002 World Food Summit in Rome said, "Together with terrorism, hunger is one of the greatest
problems the international community is facing." Human security is a value which can be broadly
50

defined as both the "freedom from fear" and the "freedom from want." 51 Until recently, security was largely a concern arising out of
the conflict among states, i.e. state security, which can be summed up in the phrase "military preparedness." 52 Today, it is recognized
that the achievement of freedom from want is as important a goal as the achievement of freedom from fear and countries must arm
themselves against such fear by addressing food insecurity. 53 In an editorial in the Economist, Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the
United Nations, wrote that today's threats to security - terrorism, food security and poverty - are all interrelated so that no one
country can tackle them alone. 54 For example, keeping our food supply secure plays a direct role in achieving freedom from fear. The
State Department has been studying the possibilities of food-borne bioterrorism, introducing the national security element to food
security concerns. 55 Likewise, in December [*286] 2004, during his resignation announcement, Tommy Thompson, the former
Secretary of the Health and Human Services Department, stated: "For the life of me, I cannot understand why the terrorists have not
attacked our food supply, because it is so easy to do." 56
Food
Yet it is a mistake to think of global security only in military terms. 57

security deserves its place in any long-term calculation regarding global security.
Widespread chronic hunger causes widespread instability and debilitating poverty and
decreases all of our safety, for example from the increased threat from global terrorism. 58

Widespread instability is an unmistakable characteristic of life in sub-Saharan Africa. 59

Food insecurity, therefore, causes global insecurity because widespread instability in


places like sub-Saharan Africa threatens all of our safety. Food insecurity in the unstable
regions of the world must be taken on now lest we find ourselves facing some far worse
danger in the days to come.

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Food Insecurity: War

Food insecurity risks global wars


Messer Professor of Nutrition Science and Policy at Tufts University 01 (Ellen Messer, Marc J. Cohen, Special
Assistant to the Director General at the International Food Policy Research Institute & Thomas Marchione,
Nutrition Advisor at the Bureau for Humanitarian Response, U.S. Agency for International Development ,
“CONFLICT: A CAUSE AND EFFECT OF HUNGER,” ECSP REPORT · ISSUE 7)

Econometric studies provide additional empirical evidence of a link between food


insecurity and violent conflict. These studies find a strong relationship between
indicators of deprivation (such as low per capita income, economic stagnation and decline, high
income inequality, and slow growth in food production per capita) and violent civil strife (Nafziger &
Auvinen, 1997; Collier & Hoeffler, 1998). Mathematical models developed for a U.S. government study identified high infant mortality
—the variable that most efficiently reflects a country's overall quality of material life—as the single most efficient variable for
explaining conflicts between 1955 and 1994. Along with trade openness and regime type, infant mortality was one of three variables
best correlated with the historical cases studied. It often interacts with lack of trade openness and repressive regimes to trigger state
political and institutional factors in interaction with
failure (Esty et al., 1995; 1998). In sum,
environmental factors (such as drought and deforestation) are key indicators of potential
conflict in Africa: well-being is affected not just by natural disasters, but also by how effectively a regime responds to them.
Ineffective responses include inappropriate policies, such as those used by some Sahelian countries in the 1960s and 1970s: they
both neglected agriculture and subjected it to disproportionate taxation relative to the allocation of public expenditure received.
These policies greatly intensified the impact of the severe 1972-75 drought in the region (Christensen et al., 1981). Other ineffective
responses include unwillingness to respond to disaster, as in Ethiopia in 1974 or Rwanda in 1993 (J. Clay et al., 1988; Uvin, 1996b),
and deliberate use of food and hunger as weapons, as in the Horn of Africa in the 1980s and 1990s (Messer, Cohen, & D'Costa, 1998).
These examples demonstrate that famine is a result of political choices as well as capabilities (Drèze & Sen, 1989). Ethnic and
There is a high correlation between a country's involvement in
Political Rivalries, Hunger, and Conflict
conflict and its classification by FAO as a “low-income food deficit” country. Such
countries have high proportions of food-insecure households. And, as already noted, conflict is also
highly correlated with high rates of child mortality (see Figure 2), which is a common index for food insecurity. Nevertheless, a
number of analysts have challenged the notion that food insecurity is a causal factor in conflict. Paarlberg, for instance, argues that
environmental scarcities such as land shortage, land degradation, and rapid population growth—what he refers to as “eco-Malthusian
emiseration”—are not generally a factor in African conflicts. Rather, Paarlberg notes, the level of conflict in Africa has been relatively
stable since the end of the colonial era. In his view, “[a] far more convincing explanation for violent conflict in sub-Saharan Africa
starts with the serious geographical mismatch, long noticed on the continent, between post-colonial national boundaries and ethnic
boundaries.” (Paarlberg, 1999, page 1). More generally, Gleditsch (1998) has pointed out that most conflicts can be sufficiently
explained as a result of political, economic, and cultural factors, without reference to environmental scarcities. In fact, neither
viewpoint precludes a food-security connection. Even Homer-Dixon (1999), a leading figure in the environmental security field,
resource
concedes that environmental scarcity alone does not inevitably result in conflict. Instead, he stresses that
constraints can have a profound influence on the social factors that eventually lead to
conflict—as when elites monopolize control over scarce resources (such as water, cropland, or
forests) and non-elites perceive themselves as unfairly deprived. As an example of how this
works in practice, Uvin (1996b) argues persuasively that environmental factors in general—and food
insecurity in particular—critically contributed to triggering the 1994 genocide in Rwanda.
Per capita food production and availability had declined dramatically in Rwanda over the preceding
decade. The collapse of the world price of coffee in 1985 greatly reduced local and national government
revenues and sapped rural households' purchasing power, even as urban job opportunities grew scarce
and food prices rose. Deteriorating living conditions made many Rwandans into a ready
audience for government appeals to ethnic hatred.

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Food Insecurity: War

Lack of food security causes social collapse within a country – this means your heg da is inevitable
Taylor and Cayford, 03 (Michael R, Jerry, American Patent Policy,
Biotechnology, and African Agriculture: The Case for Policy Change, RFF Report, November 2003, pg 7-8, http://www.rff.org/rff/Documents/RFF-RPT-
Patent.pdf)

The countries of sub-Saharan Africa face daunting social, economic, and health challenges. Achieving basic food security is the
central one for many countries and individuals in that region. If basic nutritional needs are not being met, the consequences are seen, certainly, in
individual suffering, but also in the failure of societies to thrive socially and economically. Food security, economic development, and
poverty reduction are thoroughly intertwined. So too are the interests of the United States and developing countries in
Africa and elsewhere. In the post-September 11 environment, U.S. leaders increasingly recognize that the lack of food security
outside the United States is related to our quest for physical security inside the United States.

Malnutrition causes considerably more deaths than war


Charles Ellwood, University of Missouri. “Sociology and Modern Social Problems” 2003 http://www.nalanda.nitc.ac.in/resour…
/chapter9.html 2003

As already implied, then, economic depression exercises a very considerable influence upon death rate, particularly when economic
depression causes very high prices for the necessities of life and even widespread scarcity of food. This cause produces far more deaths
in modern nations than war. The doubling of the price of bread in any civilized country would be a far greater calamity than a great war. While modern civilized
peoples fear famine but little, there are many classes in the great industrial nations that live upon such a narrow margin of existence
that the slightest increase in the cost of the necessities of life means practically the same as a famine to these classes. Statistics, therefore,
of all modern countries, and particularly of all great cities, show an enormous increase in sickness and death among the poorer classes in times
of economic depression.

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Food Insecurity: Biodiversity Impact

Food insecurity results in the destruction on biodiversity


Trudell, J.D. Candidate 2006, 05 (Robert H., Fall, Food Security Emergencies And The Power Of Eminent
Domain: A Domestic Legal Tool To Treat A Global Problem, 33 Syracuse J. Int'l L. & Com. 277, Lexis)

In 1994, the United Nations Development Program, an organization dedicated to sustainable development in the developing world,
identified seven main categories of threats to human security: economic, health, environmental, personal, community, political, and
food security. 71
food security is fundamental to each of the other listed threats because a
Certainly,
population that cannot feed itself will not be able to thrive, will be increasingly
unhealthy, and will destroy the environment of the land it depends upon in its desperate
pursuit of food. [*288] The lack of food security in sub-Saharan Africa makes it one of the least stable regions of the world.
72
Such instability has a negative effect on global security, especially in the poorer countries of the world, which suffer from major
One cause of this instability can be seen in the connection of food insecurity with the
violent conflicts. 73

degrading sub-Saharan environment. In the search for sustainable agriculture, the


74

pressures of a growing population have resulted in a reduction of cropland. In Africa, 75

forests are cut down to make grazing pastures, then grazing pastures erode away and
become deserts or areas of land incapable of producing any sustainable harvest because the soil has no more nutrients. 76

One commentator, writing about sub-Saharan Africa, noted: "the relationship that exists between human security and environmental
degradation is best illustrated in the agricultural sector."Many of the farmers in this region still use the
77

"slash-and-burn" method of subsistence farming. The forests of sub-Saharan Africa are cut down for
78

agriculture because, as will be further discussed below, the African soil quickly loses its ability to sustain
plant life so more and more land is needed to grow the same amount of food. 79

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Food Security: Terrorism Impact

Food insecurity in sub-Sahara increases the risks of terrorism


Trudell, J.D. Candidate 2006, 05 (Robert H., Fall, Food Security Emergencies And The Power Of Eminent
Domain: A Domestic Legal Tool To Treat A Global Problem, 33 Syracuse J. Int'l L. & Com. 277, Lexis)

Human security is a value which can be broadly defined as both the "freedom from fear" and the "freedom from want." 51 Until
recently, security was largely a concern arising out of the conflict among states, i.e. state security, which can be summed up in the
phrase "military preparedness." 52 Today, it is recognized that the achievement of freedom from want is as important a goal as the
achievement of freedom from fear and countries must arm themselves against such fear by addressing food insecurity. 53 In an
today's threats to security -
editorial in the Economist, Kofi Annan, Secretary General of the United Nations, wrote that
terrorism, food security and poverty - are all interrelated so that no one country can tackle them alone.
54 For example, keeping our food supply secure plays a direct role in achieving freedom from
fear. The State Department has been studying the possibilities of food-borne bioterrorism, introducing the national security element
to food security concerns. 55 Likewise, in December [*286] 2004, during his resignation announcement, Tommy Thompson, the
former Secretary of the Health and Human Services Department, stated: "For the life of me, I cannot understand why the terrorists
have not attacked our food supply, because it is so easy to do." 56 Yet it is a mistake to think of global security only in military terms.
57 Food security deserves its place in any long-term calculation regarding global security.
Widespread chronic hunger causes widespread instability and debilitating poverty and
decreases all of our safety, for example from the increased threat from global terrorism.
58 Widespread instability is an unmistakable characteristic of life in sub-Saharan Africa. 59
Food insecurity, therefore, causes global insecurity because widespread instability in places
like sub-Saharan Africa threatens all of our safety. Food insecurity in the unstable regions of the world must
be taken on now lest we find ourselves facing some far worse danger in the days to come.

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Food Insecurity: Genocide Impact

Food insecurity drives genocides


Trudell, J.D. Candidate 2006, 05 (Robert H., Fall, Food Security Emergencies And The Power Of Eminent
Domain: A Domestic Legal Tool To Treat A Global Problem, 33 Syracuse J. Int'l L. & Com. 277, Lexis)

Among other findings, Andre


and Platteau's study showed that between 1988 and 1993 there was widespread unequal land distribution in
Rwanda leading to a steep rise in the numbers of people in the "vulnerable sections of the population," that is, those living in poverty. 95 These segments
of the population were too numerous to simply become invisible, homeless segments of Rwandan society. 96 The "vicious cycle of poverty" reached across generations
where the landless were led to despair and destroyed the traditional system of marriages. 97 Rwandan courts and other methods of adjudicating land conflicts could not
cope with the sheer numbers of disaffected people. The social system in Rwanda began to breakdown. 98 The Andre and Platteau study began in 1988, and even then,
"due to extreme scarcity of land and to the harsh realities of struggle for bare survival, tensions had developed to such an extent that
the social fabric was at risk of falling asunder." 99 With hindsight, we know this risk was realized, and nearly one million people were slaughtered,
largely due to long-held ethnic animus, but certainly food insecurity played its deadly part in the tragedy.

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**High Prices Good**

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High Food Prices Solve Poverty


Higher food prices help to spur investment in better production practices. The World Bank estimates
about poverty are wrong. There will be a massive reduction in the amount of poverty in a world with
high food prices.
Homi Kharas, Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development, Wolfensohn Center for Development, July 29, 2008, “Rising
Food Prices – An Upside?”, The Brookings Institute, http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2008/0729_food_prices_kharas.aspx
The good news is that higher food prices are exactly what is required to restore balance in the market. With rising demand and
constrained supply the iron law of economics permits no other response. In a market economy, when demand exceeds supply,
prices rise. Higher prices discourage consumption, but they also encourage more investment and enhance production.
Anyone who doubts the link between food prices and agricultural investment should take a close look at the stock price of the world’s largest producer of
agricultural equipment, John Deere. While most US shares have taken a beating, John Deere’s share price has doubled and has
split two-for-one in the last two years. High food prices are encouraging farmers to invest heavily in new equipment.
This pattern is being repeated across the world, with investments in equipment, storage and land improvements. More
food is already being produced in response to higher prices: forecasts for cereals production in 2008 by the Food and
Agriculture Organisation show a significant increase. This should come as no surprise. When prices fell steeply between 1997 and 2002,
cereal production declined. Now that prices have risen back to the levels of the mid-1990s, cereal production has resumed its upward trend. Productivity is on
the rise. More profits for farmers does not mean a benefit to humanity. Some have argued that rising food prices hurt the
poorest of the poor. The World Bank suggested that today’s higher food prices could push 100m more people into
poverty. Unfortunately, the World Bank’s flash estimate, which was based on an extrapolation from a nine-country
study, has not stood up to scrutiny. The reality is that the impact of high food prices depends on each household’s income and consumption patterns.
Beyond this, the impact also depends on what happens to labour, land and credit markets. As a further complication, domestic agricultural prices in most
countries do not mirror world prices but also reflect government tax and subsidy policies. All these factors have to be taken into account to understand the
impact of high food prices on household welfare. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just completed a study including the three countries with the
largest rural populations in the world: India, China and Indonesia. Consider India, which has a long history of subsidising agricultural
input and output prices. According to the ADB, this has led to a system which is “unproductive, financially
unsustainable, and environmentally destructive; … (it) also accentuates inequality among rural Indian states.” Higher
world food prices might be just the push needed by India, along with many other countries, to persuade it to reform its
agricultural pricing system and provide new opportunities for its desperate farmers. The ADB report also analyses China in some
detail. It concludes that rural households in China should enjoy a significant reduction in the incidence of poverty as a result
of high food prices. Although some urban households will be made worse off, these are the same households which have seen steady growth in wages in
the last few years and have a middle-class living standard. In fact, a short while ago many analysts claimed that the greatest risk to China’s development was
the growing gap between income levels in urban and rural areas. With today’s food prices, that problem has receded. The outcome in Indonesia appears to be
more mixed. Urban low-income and landless labourers would become poorer, while small and medium farmers would be better off. Indonesia has large
numbers in both these groups, so many people would be affected. On average, the ADB simulations suggest that there would be about the same number of
winners and losers, so average national poverty would remain unchanged. It is surely true that high food prices will cause hardship to
many. The suffering of those in Cairo, Haiti and much of Africa is real. The spectre of hunger is ugly. That cannot be
denied and should not be forgotten. Nor should we leap to the conclusion that food prices at today’s levels are here to
stay. But for the majority of the world’s poor, to be found among the 1.7 billion rural residents of India, China and
Indonesia, the dream of a “chicken in every pot” is becoming more attainable because world food supply is rising again.
That is the upside for humanity from today’s high food prices.

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High Food Prices Solve Poverty

High Food and Fuel prices good – benefit people of poor, developing countries
Patrice Hill, June 2, 2008 ([Hill is a reporter for the Washington Times] “High Prices Not All Bad; Developing Nations Provide
Materials,” Washington Times, d/l: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jun/02/high-prices-not-all-bad/)

The hardship of high food and fuel prices for the world's most impoverished people has garnered much attention, but economists say the commodities boom
is probably helping more poor people than it hurts because developing countries are the primary source of raw materials. Most Middle
Eastern nations as well as countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Botswana, Zambia and Congo are major beneficiaries of the
sixfold increase in oil prices since 2002 as well as record high prices for corn, rice, wheat, soybeans, copper, gold, diamonds and other
basic goods the world needs for sustenance and growth. While high costs are a burden on millions of people in the developing world - primarily the urban
poor not engaged in farming or mining - the world's richer countries are paying the biggest price because they are dependent on developing nations for the raw materials
they need to fuel their economies. "High commodity prices are a problem for the industrial countries - almost all of which are commodity
importers, but a boon to the emerging economies, many of which are net exporters of commodities," said David Wyss, chief economist at
Standard & Poor's Corp. The hundreds of billions more dollars each year that consumers in the United States, Europe and Japan pay for
fuel and other raw materials amounts to a massive transfer of income to the developing world, where the money is fueling rapid
growth, raising living standards and feeding the emergence of a middle class.

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High Food Prices Good  African Food security


Higher food prices encourage African governments to invest in agricultural production and leads to
African economies’ lasting, “exciting growth,” lessening any destructive effects of subsidies.
The Star (South Africa) June 10, 2008. “High Food Prices Open Investment Windows.” Donwald Pressly, Cape Town.

High food prices provided an enormous opportunity for African investment in agricultural production as the continent was
resource rich compared with any other continent, Michael Spence, the World Bank chairman of the commission on growth,
said yesterday. Spence, speaking at the annual bank conference on development economics, said high food prices, which were likely to moderate
in the medium term as the supply side was encouraged, could translate into good news for the continent if governments
"invested in productivity growth". While nobody liked high food prices - and they had a devastating effect on the poor, who spent 50 percent or more of
their income on food and fuel costs - investment in technology to boost agricultural productivity created an enormous opportunity for
Africa. At the opening session of the three-day conference, President Thabo Mbeki said Africa had undergone "exciting growth" recently.
"For some, this may appear to be the result of the passing impact of a commodity price boom." Some might expect African economies
to slow down and run into difficulties at the end of this boom, as many did after the boom of the 1960s and 1970s, including South Africa. "But I am certain that
those of us who have looked more closely at the development of Africa would have seen that there is evidence that the current
opportunity to benefit from a commodity boom will not be frittered away as it was before, at least not by all countries," Mbeki
said. Meanwhile, Spence was asked what finance minister Trevor Manuel could have meant by his remark that a multilateral response should be employed by
developing countries to respond to the rising cost of fuel - a major driver of rocketing food costs. Spence said he agreed with Manuel's view that "we have to avoid
Balkanising the energy markets", where countries tried to lock up the sources of supply or to impose controls on exports or prices. He said any attempts to control
prices would create a disincentive to investors "to create new technology". Attempting to control prices, whether in food or fuel, was "the fastest way" to cut off
investment. Spence, a 2001 Nobel Prize winner, was also doubtful that developing countries would win the battle against American and European agricultural
subsidies. But high prices of agricultural products lessened the destructive effect of these subsidies as emerging markets became
more competitive as the products achieved higher prices, said Spence.

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High Food Prices Good  African food security


High food prices offer Africa the opportunity for an “agricultural renaissance” that will enhance
Africans’ livelihoods, nutrition, and long-term food security.

Africa News May 30, 2008. “World Bank Urges Continent to Take Advantage of High Food Prices.” AllAfrica,
Inc. The Nation.
The World Bank has asked developed nations to help African farmers take advantage of the high food prices through
increased food production. The bank's president, Mr Robert Zoellick, said while development partners had pledged
additional financial assistance, more needed to be done in agricultural research. Others are development and infrastructure, since Africa's
economic gains were at risk from high food and energy prices. "This crisis provides the opportunity to build a coalition of responses across
the African continent. "This offers a vehicle for an agricultural renaissance that raises small-scale farmers' income, enhances
livelihoods, nutrition and ultimately, food security for Africa," Mr Zoellick said. He was speaking at joint press conference with Food and
Agriculture Organisation representative for Africa, Modibo Traoré. Others were International Fund for Agricultural Development president, Mr Lennart Bage; and the
World Food Programme executive director, Ms Josette Sheeran. Mr Zoellick told journalists that although African governments had increased their investment in
Agriculture, few had met the 2003 commitment to spend at least 10 per cent of their annual budgets on agriculture. The four organisations asked the international
community to complement increased financial assistance with real breakthroughs in trade negotiations. This is to ensure that Africa's producers could gain access to
lucrative markets. The agencies asked leaders in developed nations, international organisations and the private sector to join hands under the leadership of African and
regional organisations, the AU and the New Partnership for African Development. This is to support immediate and long-term goals for growth in the continent's
agriculture. They asked governments to make it easier to buy food meant for humanitarian assistance by removing export controls and taxes. "Africa's very impressive
economic progress of the last eight years must not be derailed by high food prices. "Efforts to meet the hunger Millenium Development Goal can
succeed if we seize the opportunity of high food prices in a continent with vast, untapped agricultural potential. "With good
policies and sufficient assistance, Africa can more than meet this challenge," said Mr Bage.

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High Food Prices Good  increase farm econ.


High food prices buoyed the income of small cereal and dairy farmers elsewhere in the world, with an
increase of 12% in incomes.

The Irish Times July 1, 2008. “Farm incomes increase buoyed by high food prices.” Ronan McGreevy.
FARM INCOMES rose by 12 percent last year buoyed by high food prices and better export markets especially in Asia,
according to the Department of Agriculture’s annual review. The global shortage in commodities, which has resulted in rising
food prices, saw cereal farmers incomes increase by nearly 70 percent last year. However, the bad summer last year meant that farmers were
not able to benefit as much as they could have done from escalating prices and volumes were down slightly on other years. The booming dairy sector also
benefited hugely from rising food prices. Dairy farmers received 34 cent a litre for their milk last year, a rise of 29 percent on
the previous year. However, the boom in farm incomes did not translate into substantially higher food prices which only rose by 2.8 per cent last year, below
inflation of 4.9 per cent. The biggest increases, though, were in common foodstuffs with beef increasing by 5 per cent, milk by 7.4 per cent and fresh vegetables by 7.4
per cent. The figures mean that food prices have escalated this year and now stand at 14 per cent above May 2007. Food prices in Ireland remain the second highest in
the EU at 25 per cent more expensive than the European average. Escalating food prices globally this year have been partially blamed on demand in China and India
especially for meat and dairy products. However, they have also led to a boom of Irish food exports to Asia which increased by a phenomenal 50 per cent last year,
according to Department of Agriculture figures. Bord Bia has now achieved its strategy of doubling food exports to Asia to EUR 400 million two years ahead of
schedule. The biggest beneficiary has been the dairy industry which now accounts for 70 per cent of the EUR 400 million worth of exports to Asia last year. IFA
president Pádraig Walshe welcomed the rise in farm incomes and said dairy farmers, in particular, were entitled to a boost in
incomes after 10 years of losses in the sector. However, he also said that increases did not take into account that other sectors of the agriculture economy
were struggling. Income levels for pig farmers decreased by 9.7 per cent and beef farmers were squeezed by falling demand and South American imports with a
decrease in income levels of 1.7 per cent. There was also a small decrease in the income of poultry suppliers. Mr Walshe said pig and poultry producers were squeezed
between supermarkets and rising feed costs. The outlook, though, for beef farmers is much better this year with an estimated increase of
20 percent in cattle prices because of a shortage of beef in the EU and a dramatic fall off in imports from Brazil because of health
and safety issues. In total agricultural exports rose by an estimated 5 per cent last year to EUR 8.6 billion accounting for 7 per cent of GDP, 8 per cent of employment
and 10 per cent of exports. Minister for Agriculture Brendan Smith described the export performance as an excellent result. Significant
progress has been achieved in the face of stiff trading competition, rising energy costs and the strengthening of the euro against the dollar and sterling.

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High Prices Good – Brazil


High commodity prices have greatly benefitted Brazil above all other countries, allowing it to escape debt
and stagnation and become an economic force
Patrice Hill, June 2, 2008 ([Hill is a reporter for the Washington Times] “High Prices Not All Bad; Developing Nations Provide
Materials,” Washington Times, d/l: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jun/02/high-prices-not-all-bad/)

Perhaps the most notable rising star among developing countries getting a lift from the commodities boom is Brazil, the Latin American
giant whose exports of everything from beef to oranges have turned it into an economic force to contend with this decade. The surge in
food prices after years of stagnation has been especially kind to Brazil, which at the turn of the decade was a debt-ridden ward of the International
Monetary Fund. Brazil's economy expanded by 5.4 percent in 2007 - the fastest rate in three years - and its exports have tripled since 2003 amid booming global
demand for steel, iron-ore, soybeans, orange juice and sugar. With a recent major discovery of oil off the coast of Rio de Janiero, some analysts
think Brazil may soon become a major exporter of oil as well. Brazil's record commodity exports have bolstered its revenues and reserves to the point
that it shed its external debts and became a net creditor to the world in January, prompting Wall Street ratings agencies to raise the nation's credit rating above junk
status - a fitting symbol for the country's meteoric rise. The growing incomes and rising opportunities for people in Brazil and other commodity-
rich countries have raised living standards and enabled consumers to purchase more from abroad, causing imports of all kinds to leap
by 172 percent to $6 trillion in those nations between 2000 and 2007, said Joseph P. Quinlan, chief market strategist at Bank of
America Corp. "The penchant to consume is gaining traction globally, most notably in developing nations," he said. "Going to the mall on Saturday afternoon is just
as popular in Bangkok and Sao Paulo as it is in Boston and San Antonio."

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**Other **

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HUNGER INEVITABLE
BOTH LOW AND HIGH FOOD PRICES CONTRIBUTE TO FAMINE
HOLT-GIMENEZ 08 (July 29, 2008, Eric Holt-Giménez, Executive Director, Food First/Institute for Food and
Development Policy, “Pouring Fuel on the Food”)

It is a mistake to confuse the immediate possible causes of the


The World Bank’s agrofuels alarm is well-placed, but not completely disinterested.
world food crisis with the root causes. Though the agrofuels boom may have created the spark the ignited the food price inflation, the
food crisis did not begin with recent food riots. Paradoxically, a thirty-year global trend in declining food prices still left 860 million of
the world’s population hungry—largely because most of the world’s poor are small farmers who were plunged further into poverty by
low prices for their crops.

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AT Food Prices DA

The link between subsidies and low food prices is a myth

Bruce A. Babcock Iowa Ag Review Spring 2006

U.S. farmers often justify farm program payments by linking the payments to the small share of U.S. disposable
income that is spent on food. Those who make this linkage attribute high productivity and high production at
the farm level to program payments. The availability of less-expensive raw ingredients then decreases production costs of food processors and
manufacturers, leading to lower food prices. If this story is true, then a removal of farm program payments should lead to
higher food prices. Logically, the largest increases should show up in food products in which currently subsidized raw ingredients (corn, wheat, or
soybeans) make up the largest share of total production costs.A reasonable formula for approximating how the price of a food item would change because of a
change in the price of a raw ingredient is to multiply the percent change in the price of the raw ingredient by the share of the price of the food item that is
represented by the cost of the raw ingredient. For example, corn represents perhaps 38 percent of the cost of producing a market-ready hog. The cost of a market-
ready hog represents 28 percent of the final retail price of pork. This means that corn represents approximately 10.64 percent of the retail price of pork.Suppose that
the removal of farm programs caused the price of corn to increase by 5 percent. The price of pork would then increase by about 0.53 percent. That is, pork
chops that cost $3.00 per pound with farm subsidies would increase in price by less than two cents per pound. If
corn prices were to rise by 10 percent with the removal of subsidies, then pork chops would cost only three cents
per pound more than they currently do. Because corn represents a smaller share of the final value of beef and
dairy products, retail prices for these products would go up by a smaller amount (in percentage terms) than the
price of pork.It is difficult to come up with examples in which subsidized U.S. commodities have a greater than 10 percent share of final retail value. And at
this maximum share, it would take a doubling of commodity prices to increase consumer prices by 10 percent. But no credible analyst has ever
estimated that farm payments result in such a large supply expansion that their withdrawal would cause
commodity prices to double. The idea that U.S. commodity policy is really a cheap food policy is a myth.

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AT Food Price DA

While direct payment subsidies lower food prices, other incentive structure mechanisms can act to keep
prices artificially elevated

Griswold, Slivinski, Preble February 2006

America's agricultural policies have remained fundamentally unchanged for nearly three-quarters of a century. The
U.S. government continues to
subsidize the production of rice, milk, sugar, cotton, peanuts, tobacco, and other commodities, while restricting
imports to maintain artificially high domestic prices. The competition and innovation that have changed the face of the planet have been
effectively locked out of America's farm economy by politicians who fear farm voters more than the dispersed consumers who subsidize them. The time is ripe for
unilaterally removing those distorting trade policies. In 2006 Congress will begin to write a new farm bill to replace the protectionist and subsidy-laden 2002
legislation that is set to expire in 2007. Meanwhile, the Bush administration will be negotiating with 147 other members of the World Trade Organization to
conclude the Doha Round before the president's trade promotion authority expires in mid-2007. Congress and the administration should seize the opportunity to do
ourselves a big favor by eliminating farm subsidies and trade barriers, a change that would benefit all Americans in six important ways. 1. Lower Food Prices for
American Families The foremost reason to curtail farm protectionism is to benefit American consumers. By shielding the domestic market from global competition,
government farm programs raise the cost of food and with it the overall cost of living. According to the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the higher domestic food prices caused by U.S.
farm programs transferred $16.2 billion from American consumers to domestic agricultural producers in 2004.
That amounts to an annual "food tax" per household of $146. This consumer tax is paid over and above what we dole out to farmers
through the federal budget.American consumers pay more than double the world price for sugar. The federal sugar program
guarantees domestic producers a take of 22.9 cents per pound for beet sugar and 18 cents for cane sugar, while the world spot price for raw cane sugar is currently
about 10 cents per pound. A 2000 study by the General Accounting Office estimated that Americans paid an extra $1.9
billion a year for sugar due to import quotas alone.American families also pay more for their milk, butter, and
cheese, thanks to federal dairy price supports and trade barriers. The federal government administers a byzantine system of
domestic price supports, marketing orders, import controls, export subsidies, and domestic and international giveaway programs. According to the U.S.
International Trade Commission, between 2000 and 2002 the average domestic price of nonfat dry milk was 23
percent higher than the world price, cheese 37 percent higher, and butter more than double. Trade policies also
drive up prices for peanuts, cotton, beef, orange juice, canned tuna, and other products. These costs are compounded by
escalating tariffs based on the amount of processing embodied in a product. If the government allowed lower, market prices for commodity inputs, processed foods
would be substantially cheaper. Lifting sugar protection, for example, would apply downward pressure on the prices we pay for candy, soft drinks, bakery goods,
and other sugar-containing products. The burden of higher domestic food costs falls disproportionately on poor households. Farm protections act as a regressive
tax, with higher prices at the grocery store negating some or all of the income support the government seeks to deliver via programs such as food stamps. If
American farm subsidies and trade barriers were significantly reduced, millions of American households would enjoy
higher real incomes.

The number of variables that are taken into account when deciding how much acerage to plant make it
impossible to say if government subsidies are affecting this decisions and, by extension, prices

Bruce A. Babcock Iowa Ag Review Spring 2006


This discussion is not an attempt to minimize the impacts of U.S. farm subsidies on farmers' acreage decisions. Rather, it is
meant to illustrate how complicated estimation of the impacts actually is. Farmers base their decisions about what and
how much to plant on numerous factors, including rotation considerations, production costs, expected
market prices, availability of crop insurance, and expected benefits from farm programs. The complicated
nature of these decisions makes it quite difficult to determine if U.S. farm programs for crops other than
cotton are vulnerable to a WTO case against them on the basis of price suppression. The role that these
programs play in farmers' planting decisions varies across crops, regions, and crop years. Simple "rules of
thumb" that use total payment levels as a guide or the belief that the programs work as a cheap food policy
are inadequate measures of the impacts of farm payments on U.S. supply and international commodity
prices

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WAR TURNS CASE


CONFLICT TURNS AGRICULTURE- MULTIPLE WARRANTS
CHRISTOPLOS ET AL 04 (Ian Christoplos, Catherine Longley and Tom Slaymaker, “THE CHANGING
ROLES OF AGRICULTURAL REHABILITATION: LINKING RELIEF, DEVELOPMENT AND SUPPORT
TO RURAL LIVELIHOODS,” July 2004, Overseas Development Institute Humanitarian Policy Group)

Agricultural production is inevitably affected by conflict, for example: • insecurity may prevent access to farms
and markets for the timely implementation of key tasks; • expanding urban populations due to displacement
may affect market demands and may lead to intensified peri-urban production that competes with rural
producers; • changing household composition (due to death, abduction, displacement or migration) may reduce
family labour; • the loss or depletion of financial assets may limit access to agricultural inputs; • displacement
may force farmers to abandon their farms and/or production output altogether; • access to land, labour and other
inputs may be limited in places of refuge; • agricultural outputs may be forcibly extorted by warlords or local
militia; • formal input delivery systems may cease to function; • changes in the local economy (either related to
conflict or relief food supply) may render staple food production unprofitable (though other crops may become
very profitable); and • over-exploitation of land may have long-term negative consequences for the natural
resource base.

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