Commodities I Metals & Energy

March 5, 2012
Precious metals
High MCX Gold(Apr) (`/10 gm) Silver(May) (`/kg) Gold Mini (`/10 gm) Silver Mini (`/kg) COMEX (US$/oz) Gold(Apr) Silver(May) 1,727.3 35.71 1,695.1 34.46 1,722.2 35.66 0.6 3.1 240,377 62,173 28,029 59,863 27,807 59,874 28,000 59,640 27,700 59,641 28,023 59,783 27,775 59,800 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 13,679 11,214 860 24,648 Low Close %Chg OI

Market pulse Gold & silver futures declined on Friday, as the US dollar was up and investors sold the metals along with other assets considered riskier such as stocks and oil. Gold holdings of SPDR gold trust, the largest ETF backed by the precious metal, increased to 1,293.68 tons, as on Feb 29. Silver holdings of ishares silver trust, the largest ETF backed by the metal, declined to 9,763.25 tons, as on March 2. The dollar index, which measures the US unit against a basket of six major currencies, reached 78.744, trading at 79.349, up from 78.803 on late Thursday. Moody's Investors Service said it had cut Greece's local and foreign-currency bond ratings to C from Ca, bringing the countries rating to the lowest possible level. Euro was hit over reports from Spain, which reported an increase in jobless claims in February. Also, the Spanish government raised its budget deficit target to 5.8% of GDP for 2012, compared with 4.4% in its previous forecasts. Copper prices declined, easing from the previous day's gains and pressured by weakness in equities and the euro and concerns over the surplus in China will put pressure on prices. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.5% to 221,487 tons, the highest since August 2002 while stocks at LME warehouse continues to decline, down at 2-1/2 year low. The European aluminum market has seen premiums rise again last week, as the wide contango continues to keep financed metal out of the physical market. Crude oil prices declined, after Saudi Arabia denied a report of a pipeline explosion in its Eastern province and as the dollar posted its biggest weekly gain in almost 2-months. Indias largest shipping company was forced to cancel an Iranian crude oil shipment last month because its European insurers refused to provide coverage for the vessel on the grounds of tightening sanctions on the OPEC member, as per industry reports - Reuters. Natural gas futures, closed modestly higher on short-covering but gains were limited by mild late-winter weather forecasts and higher supplies in storage. The number of rigs actively exploring for oil and natural gas in the US was up by 8 last week to 1,989. 1,293 rigs were explored for oil and 691 for natural gas, as per Houston-based oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc.

Base metals
High MCX (`/kg) Alum.(Mar) Copper(Apr) Lead(Mar) Nickel(Mar) Zinc(Mar) LME(3mths) (US$/ton) Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc 2,356 8,648 2,201 19,965 2,122 2,304 8,448 2,161 19,362 2,081 2,353 8,628 2,168 19,690 2,110 1.2 1.2 (1.1) 1.2 (0.0) -----114.4 432.4 108.6 976.9 105.3 114.2 431.4 108.4 974.5 105.1 114.4 431.7 108.6 976.0 105.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6,020 36,081 3,034 20,077 3,176 Low Close %Chg OI

Energy
High MCX Cr. oil(Mar) (`/bbl) Nat.gas(Mar) (`/mmbtu) NCDEX Cr. oil (`/bbl) NYMEX Cr. oil(Apr) (US$/bbl) Nat.gas(Apr) (US$/mmbtu) 110.6 2.60 106.6 2.44 108.8 2.46 1.7 (5.8) 256,364 209,023 5,308 5,303 5,303 0.0 163 5,315 124.8 5,300 123.6 5,305 124.4 0.2 (0.3) 14,477 30,685 Low Close %Chg OI

Currency
Close Rs`/US$ US$/EUR US$/GBP JPY/US$ 49.22 1.3310 1.5954 81.09 Prev close 49.01 1.3325 1.5910 81.10 %Chg 0.4 (0.1) 0.3 (0.0)

LME Inventory levels

Base Metals Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc Close 5,101,150 289,000 366,675 98,622 11,035 867,425 Prev close 5,103,000 292,250 369,950 99,030 10,615 867,425 %Chg (0.0) (1.1) (0.9) (0.4) 4.0 0.0

Ratios
Close Gold v/s Oil Gold v/s Silver 1,722.2 1,722.2 Close 108.8 35.66 Ratio 15.8 48.3

PranavMer|pranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI 501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Commodities I Metals & Energy

March 5, 2012
Pivot levels
MCX levels
Commodity Gold Silver Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil Nat. Gas R3 28,104 60,590 115.4 434.9 109.7 992 106.3 5,387 126.8 R2 28,061 60,280 115.0 433.7 109.3 986 105.9 5,353 126.1 R1 28,020 59,991 114.6 432.5 108.8 980 105.5 5,322 125.4 Pivot 27,985 59,735 114.3 431.5 108.5 974 105.1 5,294 124.8 S1 27,950 59,479 114.0 430.5 108.1 969 104.7 5,266 124.2 S2 27,910 59,191 113.6 429.4 107.7 963 104.4 5,235 123.6 S3 27,866 58,880 113.2 428.1 107.2 957 103.9 5,201 122.8

International levels
Commodity Gold Silver Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil R3 1,728.6 35.74 2,358 8,682 2,217 20,048 2,147 109.08 R2 1,722.9 35.40 2,345 8,645 2,207 19,885 2,137 108.16 R1 1,717.6 35.09 2,333 8,609 2,198 19,733 2,127 107.30 Pivot 1,712.9 34.81 2,322 8,578 2,190 19,598 2,118 106.54 S1 1,708.2 34.53 2,311 8,547 2,182 19,463 2,109 105.78 S2 1,702.9 34.22 2,299 8,512 2,173 19,312 2,099 104.93 S3 1,697.2 33.88 2,285 8,474 2,163 19,148 2,089 104.00 2.43

Nat. Gas 2.50 2.49 2.48 2.47 2.46 2.44 A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day. These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

Trade Recommendations
Commodity Gold (Apr) Silver (Mar) Copper (Apr) Aluminum (Mar) Lead (Mar) Nickel (Mar) Zinc (Mar) Crude oil (Mar) Strategy Buy Sell Sell Sell Buy Sell -Buy Levels Around 27960 60560-60600 Around 434 Below 114 Around 107.3 986-990 -Above 5315 Target 1 28020 60300 431 113 108.3 970 -5350 Target 2 28100 60000 428 112 109.5 950 -5400 118 Stop-Loss 28920 60710 435.2 114.6 106.9 1000.5 -5280 125.8 Trend* Up Up Sideways Sideways Sideways Sideways Sideways Up Sideways

Natural gas (Mar) Sell Below 124 121 **Strict Stop-Loss *Trend - its an overall trend & not a part of intra-day buy / sell strategies. Note: Calls given above are purely technical calls and not based on fundamentals.

PranavMer|pranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI 501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Commodities I Metals & Energy

March 5, 2012
Economic data schedule
Date 05-Mar Country / Currency EUR EUR EUR GBP EUR USD USD 06-Mar AUD EUR EUR 07-Mar AUD AUD EUR EUR USD 08-Mar USD NZD JPY JPY JPY JPY AUD AUD JPY EUR GBP GBP EUR CAD 09-Mar CNY CNY CNY CNY EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR GBP GBP GBP GBP GBP CAD CAD USD USD USD USD USD USD GBP Event German Purchasing Manager Index Services EZ Purchasing Manager Index Composite EZ Purchasing Manager Index Services Purchase Manager Index Services EZ Sentix Investor Confidence ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Factory Orders Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision EZ Gross Domestic Product s.a. (q-o-q) EZ Gross Domestic Product s.a. (y-o-y) Gross Domestic Product (q-o-q) Gross Domestic Product (y-o-y) German Factory Orders s.a. (m-o-m) German Factory Orders n.s.a. (y-o-y) ADP Employment Change Consumer Credit Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision Nominal Gross Domestic Product (q-o-q) Gross Domestic Product (q-o-q) Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) Gross Domestic Product Annualized Employment Change Unemployment Rate Bankruptcies (y-o-y) German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (y-o-y) BOE Asset Purchase Target Bank of England Rate Decision European Central Bank Rate Decision Bank of Canada Rate Decision Producer Price Index (y-o-y) Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) Industrial Production YTD (y-o-y) Industrial Production (y-o-y) German Consumer Price Index (m-o-m) German Consumer Price Index (y-o-y) German CPI - EU Harmonized (m-o-m) German CPI - EU Harmonized (y-o-y) German Trade Balance (Euros) Industrial Production (y-o-y) Manufacturing Production (y-o-y) Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (y-o-y) Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (y-o-y) PPI Output Core n.s.a. (y-o-y) Net Change in Employment Unemployment Rate Trade Balance Change in Non-farm Payrolls Change in Private Payrolls Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Unemployment Rate Underemployment Rate (U6) GBP NIESR GDP Estimate IST 14:25 14:30 14:30 15:00 15:00 20:30 20:30 9:00 15:30 15:30 6:00 6:00 16:30 16:30 18:45 00:30 00:30 5:20 5:20 5:20 5:20 6:00 6:00 10:00 16:30 17:30 17:30 18:15 19:30 7:00 7:00 11:00 11:00 12:30 12:30 12:30 12:30 13:30 15:00 15:00 15:00 15:00 15:00 17:30 17:30 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 20:30 1.0% 0.0% 3.4% 12.3% 12.4% 0.7% 2.3% 0.9% 2.5% 13bn -3.1% 0.2% 7.1% 3.9% 2.5% 13.8k 7.6% -$49bn 210k 215k 22k 8.3% 1.1% 325bn 0.5% -0.6% 5k 5.2% Actual Cons. 52.6 49.7 49.4 54.9 -5 56.1 -1.3% 4.3% -0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 2.3% 0.006 -1.7% 205K $12bn 2.5% -0.3% -0.2% Previous 52.6 49.7 49.4 56 -11.1 56.8 1.1% 4.3% -0.3% 0.7% 1.0% 2.5% 0.017 0.0% 170K $19.308bn 2.5% -0.8% -0.6% -145.8bn -2.3% 46.3k 5.1% -5.4% 0.9% 325bn 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 4.5% 13.9% 12.8% 0.7% 2.3% 0.9% 2.5% 12.9bn -3.3% 0.8% 7.0% 4.1% 2.4% 2.3k 7.6% -$48.8bn 243k 257k 50k 8.3% 15.1% -0.2%

PranavMer|pranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI 501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.

Commodities I Metals & Energy

March 5, 2012
Spreads
Commodity Near month 28,023 58,088 2nd month 28,395 59,783 Close 372 1,695 Prev close 373 1,679

Global Indices
Markets Close 17,636.8 5,359.4 9,777.0 21,562.3 2,460.7 2,993.5 Prev close 17,584.0 5,339.8 9,707.4 21,388.0 2,426.1 2,978.8 %Chg 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.5

Precious metals Gold (`/10 gm) Silver (`/kg) Base metals Alum. (`/kg) Copper (`/kg) Lead (`/kg) Nickel (`/kg) Zinc (`/kg) Energy Cr. oil (`/bbl) Nat.gas (`/mmbtu)

Asia
Sensex Nifty Nikkie Hang Seng 114.4 431.7 108.6 976.0 105.1 115.6 436.0 109.7 986.3 106.1 1.20 4.35 1.15 10.30 1.00 1.25 4.45 1.15 10.30 1.05 Shanghai Straits Times

America
Dow Jones Nasdaq 12,977.6 2,641.6 12,980.3 2,643.5 (0.0) (0.1)

5,305 124.4

5,359 131.9

54 7.5

52 7.4

Europe
CAC DAX FTSE 3,501.2 6,921.4 5,911.1 3,499.7 6,941.8 5,931.3 0.0 (0.3) (0.3)

National-International price parity

MCX INR (`) Gold Silver Copper Crude oil *MCX premium/ (discount) 28,023 58,088 431.7 5,305 1,712.90 34.75 3.902 106.5 COMEX Close* 49.50 560.04 1,182.93 5.83 31.27 Prev close* 49.215 531.80 105.94 5.69 (62.56)

Metals arbitrage
Close Lead-Zinc 3.45 Prev close 3.35

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Note:IdeasgivenundertheCommoditiessectionareforintradaypurposeoruptoaperiodofthreetradingsessions.Recommendationsunderthisheadingarenotnecessarilypartofourfundamentalbuyorselllist.

PranavMer|pranav.mer@mangalkeshav.comI 501,HeritagePlaza,Opp.IndianOilNagar,J.P.Road,Andheri(W),Mumbai400053.