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May 9, 2012
Andhra Bank
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (7.1) (13.9) 12.0 4QFY11 862 712 313 % chg (yoy) 6.1 (7.1) 8.6
`110 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2012, Andhra Bank posted a moderate set of numbers with net profit increasing by 8.6% yoy (up 12.0% qoq) to `340cr, which were higher than our estimates due to lower effective tax rate than estimated by us. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Asset-quality pressures moderate but still above normal levels: For FY2012, the banks business growth remained at moderate levels, with advances growing by 17.1% yoy (5.6% qoq during 4QFY2012) and deposits growing by 14.9% yoy (7.3% qoq during 4QFY2012). Current account deposit accretion picked up during 4QFY2012 with a growth of 15.1% qoq (down 11.0% yoy), while savings accounts growth was also reasonable healthy at 4.1% qoq up 10.0% yoy). The banks yield on advances declined by 43bp qoq on account of interest rate reversals amounting to `75-80cr. The banks cost of deposits also increased by 35bp qoq on account of sequential dip in CASA ratio and higher cost of borrowings on bulk deposits during the quarter. Consequently, the reported NIMs of the bank declined by 47bp during 4QFY2012. The banks asset quality improved during 4QFY2012, with gross and net NPA levels declining by 4.6% and 19.9% qoq. The banks provision coverage ratio also improved sequentially by 574bp to 71.1%. The slippage levels were higher on a qoq basis (slippage ratio of 2.6% compared to 2.1% in 3QFY2012), however continued momentum in recoveries (`551cr during 4QFY2012) led to lower gross NPA levels. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.7x FY2014E ABV compared to its five-year range of 0.7x1.4x one-year forward ABV with a median of 1.1x. Considering the banks relatively higher risk exposures, particularly to the power sector (more than 16% of the loan book) and that peers of the bank are also trading at similar valuations with similar or better asset quality outlook, we remain Neutral on the stock. Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 58.0 15.4 13.3 13.4
3m (7.6) (5.1)
FY2011 3,221 46.8 1,267 21.2 3.3 22.6 4.8 0.9 1.3 23.2
FY2012E 3,759 16.7 1,345 6.1 3.3 24.0 4.6 0.8 1.1 19.2
FY2013E 4,245 12.9 1,256 -6.6 3.2 22.4 4.9 0.7 0.9 15.8
FY2014E 4,808 13.3 1,436 14.3 3.1 25.7 4.3 0.7 0.9 16.0
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 3QFY12 % chg (qoq) 4QFY11 % chg (yoy) 2,999 2,430 545 24 2,085 914 230 207 181 23 20 6 1,144 483 319 164 661 244 104 37 103 417 78 340 18.6 2,923 2,391 499 34 1,939 984 235 219 180 16 9 31 1,219 452 285 167 768 309 39 19 251 458 155 303 33.8 2.6 1.6 9.4 (30.1) NA 7.5 (7.1) (2.3) (5.6) 0.8 42.4 132.1 (81.5) (6.2) 6.9 11.9 (1.5) (13.9) (21.2) 163.9 93.5 (59.1) (8.9) (49.9) 12.0 (1523)bp 2,363 1,918 409 7 30 1,502 862 299 234 185 65 15 34 1,161 449 298 151 712 303 203 0 100 409 96 313 23.5 26.9 26.7 33.4 261.5 NA 38.8 6.1 (23.1) (11.6) (1.9) (64.5) 29.7 (83.2) (1.4) 7.5 7.0 8.5 (7.1) (19.5) (48.6) NA 3.0 2.1 (19.2) 8.6 (489)bp
Estimates 1,016 266 1,282 500 783 257 526 197 328
Var. (%) (10.1) (13.6) (10.8) (3.4) (15.5) (5.2) (20.6) (60.6) 3.4
May 9, 2012
4QFY12 83,642 105,851 79.0 6,369 21,578 27,947 26.4 13.2 9.0 7.9 12.3 7.9 10.0 6.9 3.3 42.2 1,798 2.1 756 0.9 71.1 2.6 0.3
3QFY12 79,169 98,680 80.2 5,532 20,729 26,261 26.6 12.6 8.2 7.6 12.8 7.8 10.3 6.8 3.8 37.0 1,884 2.4 943 1.2 65.4 2.1 0.1
%chg (qoq) 5.6 7.3 (121)bp 15.1 4.1 6.4 (21)bp 60bp 79bp 35bp (43)bp 10bp (36)bp 8bp (47)bp 518bp (4.6) (26)bp (19.9) (30)bp 574bp 51bp 21bp
4QFY11 71,435 92,156 77.5 7,160 19,619 26,779 29.1 14.4 9.7 6.5 11.6 7.4 9.2 5.9 3.7 38.7 996 1.4 274 0.4 83.9 1.4 0.8
%chg (yoy) 17.1 14.9 150bp (11.0) 10.0 4.4 (266)bp (120)bp (65)bp 146bp 73bp 49bp 75bp 107bp (35)bp 352bp 80.6 74bp 176.2 53bp (1281)bp 128bp (44)bp
May 9, 2012
77.9
8.9 12.3
6.0
3.9
7.6 4.5
5.6 7.3
29.1
27.8
26.1
26.6
(1.4)
(5.0)
(2.8)
25.0 24.0
26.4
3.4
4.4
5.0 -
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
The banks yield on advances declined by 43bp qoq on account of interest rate reversals amounting to `75-80cr. The banks cost of deposits also increased by 35bp qoq on account of sequential dip in CASA ratio and higher cost of borrowings on bulk deposits during the quarter. Consequently, the reported NIMs of the bank declined by 47bp during 4QFY2012.
May 9, 2012
1.4 0.4
1.6 0.5
2.7 1.5
2.4 1.2
2.1 0.9
2.1
4QFY11
1.4
1QFY12
325
1.4
2.6
20.0 11.9 10.0 -
0.5
15.0
14.7
1.6
6.1
61.7
65.4
250
4.1 0.2
38.7
37.9
39.2
37.0
42.2
36.0 34.0
298
273
274
285
(8.3)
319
(10.0)
Investment concerns
Moderate fee income; low CASA
During FY200712, fee income for the bank reported a CAGR of only 9.6% compared to advances posting a CAGR of 24.6%. Infact, the bank registered a negative growth in fee income during FY2012, which has led to proportion of fee income to overall assets declining from 0.8% in FY2011 to 0.6% as of FY2012. On the CASA front, the banks market share has fallen by 35bp over FY20051HFY2012; and at 26.4%, the banks CASA ratio is on the lower end compared to peers.
May 9, 2012
May 9, 2012
Earlier estimates FY2013 14.5 18.0 25.7 3.3 4.3 15.0 15.0 3.4 67.0 FY2014 16.0 18.0 24.5 3.2 14.2 15.0 15.0 3.4 70.0
Revised estimates FY2013 14.5 18.0 24.8 3.2 5.4 15.0 15.0 2.5 70.0 FY2014 16.0 18.0 23.7 3.1 14.3 15.0 15.0 2.3 70.0
FY2014 Earlier estimates 4,931 1,067 5,998 2,408 3,590 1,351 2,238 726 1,512 Revised Var. (%) estimates 4,808 1,035 5,843 2,386 3,457 1,332 2,125 690 1,436 (2.5) (3.0) (2.6) (0.9) (3.7) (1.4) (5.1) (5.1) (5.1)
Earlier estimates 4,350 934 5,284 2,094 3,190 1,234 1,956 635 1,321
Revised Var. (%) estimates 4,245 906 5,151 2,075 3,076 1,217 1,859 603 1,256 (2.4) (3.0) (2.5) (0.9) (3.6) (1.4) (4.9) (4.9) (4.9)
0.6x
0.8x
1x
1.2x
1.4x
May 9, 2012
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries); # without adjusting for SASF
May 9, 2012
Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) NII - YoY growth (%) Other income - YoY growth (%) Operating income - YoY growth (%) Operating expenses - YoY growth (%) Pre-prov. profit - YoY growth (%) Prov. & cont. - YoY growth (%) PBT - YoY growth (%) Prov. for taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY growth (%) FY08 1,340 (5.5) 626 19.9 1,966 1.3 909 (2.6) 1,057 5.0 139 (37.2) 918 16.9 342 37.3 576 7.0 FY09 1,627 21.5 765 22.2 2,392 21.7 1,104 21.5 1,288 21.9 390 179.9 898 (2.1) 245 27.3 653 13.5 FY10 2,195 34.9 965 26.0 3,159 32.1 1,350 22.2 1,810 40.5 374 (4.1) 1,436 59.9 390 27.2 1,046 60.1 FY11 3,221 46.8 897 (7.0) 4,118 30.3 1,705 26.3 2,413 33.3 646 72.8 1,767 23.1 500 28.3 1,267 21.2 FY12E 3,759 16.7 860 (4.1) 4,619 12.2 1,804 5.8 2,815 16.7 991 53.3 1,824 3.2 480 26.3 1,345 6.1 FY13E 4,245 12.9 906 5.4 5,151 11.5 2,075 15.0 3,076 9.3 1,217 22.8 1,859 1.9 603 32.4 1,256 (6.6) FY14E 4,808 13.3 1,035 14.3 5,843 13.4 2,386 15.0 3,457 12.4 1,332 9.5 2,125 14.3 690 32.4 1,436 14.3
Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 485 2,764 49,437 19.3 591 1,115 2,201 56,592 4,902 793 14,898 34,238 22.8 219 1,542 56,592 19.0 FY09 485 3,162 20.1 1,311 2,040 2,081 4,853 434 FY10 485 3,925 30.8 2,832 3,020 2,392 6,699 4,469 FY11 560 5,933 18.6 4,620 3,020 2,612 7,184 3,275 24,204 71,435 27.3 317 2,485 20.5 FY12E 560 6,920 14.9 5,301 2,939 3,393 5,564 3,082 29,629 83,642 17.1 303 2,745 14.8 FY13E 560 7,851 18.0 6,226 3,366 3,858 4,996 3,619 FY14E 560 8,929 18.0 7,317 3,904 4,377 5,895 4,253
59,390 77,688
16,911 20,881 44,139 56,114 28.9 335 1,796 21.0 27.1 356 1,825 31.9
38,810 47,049 95,770 111,093 14.5 345 3,224 17.4 16.0 393 3,789 17.5
May 9, 2012
Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.6 0.3 2.3 0.2 2.5 1.0 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.7 1.1 16.3 18.0 2.6 0.6 2.0 0.4 2.3 0.9 3.2 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.0 18.1 18.9 2.8 0.5 2.3 0.4 2.7 0.8 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.3 19.7 26.0 3.2 0.6 2.6 0.1 2.7 0.8 3.5 1.7 1.8 0.5 1.3 18.3 23.2 3.2 0.8 2.4 0.1 2.5 0.6 3.1 1.5 1.6 0.4 1.1 16.7 19.2 3.1 0.9 2.2 0.0 2.3 0.6 2.9 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.9 17.1 15.8 3.0 0.8 2.2 0.0 2.2 0.6 2.8 1.5 1.3 0.4 0.9 17.8 16.0 9.2 1.6 3.6 8.1 1.5 4.1 5.1 1.2 4.6 4.8 0.9 5.0 4.6 0.8 5.0 4.9 0.7 4.6 4.3 0.7 5.0 11.9 67.0 4.0 13.5 75.2 4.5 21.6 90.9 5.0 22.6 116.0 5.5 24.0 131.8 5.5 22.4 146.9 5.0 25.7 164.9 5.5 1.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 85.6 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.3 78.5 0.9 0.2 0.9 0.4 91.6 1.4 0.4 1.4 0.5 83.9 2.1 0.9 3.0 0.4 71.1 3.2 1.2 2.5 0.6 70.0 3.9 1.4 2.3 0.6 70.0 33.6 69.3 11.6 8.5 31.4 74.3 13.2 8.7 29.4 72.2 13.9 8.2 29.1 77.5 14.4 9.7 26.4 79.0 13.9 9.7 24.8 76.7 13.3 9.3 23.7 75.4 12.9 8.9 2.7 46.2 1.1 18.0 2.7 46.2 1.0 18.9 2.8 42.7 1.3 26.0 3.3 41.4 1.3 23.2 3.3 39.1 1.1 19.2 3.2 40.3 0.9 15.8 3.1 40.8 0.9 16.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
May 9, 2012
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Andhra Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
May 9, 2012
11