Chapter 2: Gathering Data and Statistical Inference

1. Statistical Methods (Descriptive vs. Inferential) (basic terminology) Experimental Units Population Sample Statistic Parameter Census 2. First Principle of Statistical Inference Examples Three diagrams 3. Types of studies Designed Experiments Observational Studies 4. Sampling methods

1. Statistical Methods:
1) Descriptive Statistical Methods - collect data and describe them. 2) Inferential Statistical Methods - collect data, analyze, interpret, and make conclusions based on the data. In this course, we will concentrate on (2), although the distinction will not always be clear. Start with some definitions: Definitions: 1. Experimental unit (unit or EU)- an object on which measurements are taken. 2. Population of experimental units - set of units of interest. Example: An individual person in the U.S.

Population of individuals in the U.S.

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Definitions: 3. Population of measurements set of measurements of a particular type made on each unit in the population of units. 4. Sample of units - set of units actually measured.

Example: A set of height values, one for each individual in the U.S. (one of many possible measurements) Randomly select 100 SSNs: Individuals whose SSNs are selected Height values for the 100 individuals measured. Population of units Sample of units

Example: Descriptive statistical methods involve describing the sample. Inferential statistical methods involve making statements about the population based on the sample. Describe the height values of the 100 people measured.

5. Sample of measurements set of measurements on the sampled units.

We can now describe Descriptive and Inferential statistical methods in terms of these definitions.
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Make statements about the heights of the U.S. population based on the sample.
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2. First Principle of Statistical Inference:

More Definitions: 6. Statistic - number calculated from sample measurements (e.g. sample average: y ) 7. Parameter - number calculated from the population of measurements (e.g. pop. Average: ) 8. Census when the sample equals the population. Example: Average of 100 heights in the sample. You make inference to the population from which you sample. (Seems obvious, but often forgotten) Examples: a) Cow grazing behavior: 1 cow 1 pasture Randomly select 50 one-hour intervals within a 4-week period. What population is being sampled? What inference is being made? The U.S. census: (Problem with adjustment of U.S. Census)
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Average height of all individuals in the U.S.

b) Capital punishment and homicide rates: Obtain crime and punishment info for 50 states. What population is being sampled? What inference is being made? 6 Objective: make causal statements about a process (pretty far fetched)

Examples (continued) c) A pilot study in a manufacturing plant: 16 runs of in the lab of a manufacturing process. What population is being sampled? What inference is being made? Objective: find out how the process will work in large scale production. d) Pesticide field trial: Inoculate a field with insects. Test 3 levels of application of a particular pesticide. What population is being sampled? 1) Used one batch of pesticide (not a problem for inference) 2) Used one strain of pest (big problem for inference) 3) Observed one set of weather conditions (who knows?) What inference is being made?
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Three diagrams: to explain the First Principle of Statistical Inference Target population: the population you would like to sample. Sampled population: the population you actually do sample. 1) In this diagram the Sampled population is a subset of the Target population Target population Sample

Sampled population (a subset of Target population) Cow Grazing example Pesticide Study example Homicide Data example
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2) In this diagram the Sampled population is not a subset of the Target population. Target pop. Sample Sampled pop. Pilot study example

3) The river diagram (Cornfield and Tukey)

river Measurements taken on the sampled units (the data) Scientific Objective (a conclusion about the target population)

You make statistical inference to the sampled population. You make scientific judgments about whether that is close enough to the target population to satisfy your objectives.
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Use Statistical Inference

Use Scientific Judgment Statistical conclusions about the sampled population

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Two common situations:

3. Types of Studies:
Designed Experiments Studies in which the experimenter manipulates the experimental conditions or treatments experienced by the experimental units using a randomization scheme. (The book calls these Scientific Studies.) Examples:

river

river

Sampled population nearly equals Target population

Sampled population very unlike the Target population

a) Three levels of pesticide compared in a field trial. (Levels randomly assigned to plots.) b) Effect of vitamin E supplementation on the rate of spoilage of beef. (Vitamin. E or no Vitamin. E randomly assigned to individual cows.)

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4. Sampling methods
Observational studies: studies in which the experimenter observes or measures, but doesnt manipulate the conditions experienced by the experimental units and does not have control on which units receive which treatment or condition. Examples: a) Measure dietary fat intake and heart disease rates in sample of countries. b) Record smoking behavior and lung cancer incidence in a population. Sampling Frame A list of experimental units from which sampling is done.

1) Simple Random Sampling: take individuals randomly from the sampling frame. Each individual randomly selected from those remaining. 2) Systematic Sampling: take individuals from the sampling frame according to some method: e.g. every third individual, or every 50 meters along a transect.

Causal inference. In designed experiments (scientific studies) you can make inference about causal relationships. In observational studies you cannot.
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3) Stratified Random Sampling: Organize the frame into groups (or strata) of like units. Sample independently within each stratum. The objective is to gain efficiency by sampling less intensively in strata that have low variability. 4) Multi-stage Sampling: Sample in stages. First sample primary units, then sample secondary units within primary units, etc. (Counties/Subdivisions/Households/Individuals) 5) Cluster Sampling: First sample clusters of units, then measure every unit within each cluster in the sample. (Saves time locating units. Used in sampling units that exist in colonies) 6) Judgement Sampling: Attempting to find a representative sample, based on the opinion of 15 some expert. (Generally thought to be a bad idea.)