Chapter 6

Continuous probability distributions

6.1 Uniform probability distribution
The uniform probability density function:
1

 = 

for
 
elsewhere

Example:
The flight time from Chicago to New York is uniformly distributed between 120 and 140. Let x = the
flight time of an airplane traveling from Chicago to New York.

1
1
=

 = 140 120 20
0

for 120  140

elsewhere

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Questions:
1.

Calculate the probability that the flight time will be between 120 and 130 minutes.

120    130 = 120  130 = 
 = 130 120 

1
1
 = 10   = 0.5
20
20

2. Calculate the probability that the flight time will be 125 minutes.
 = 125 = 0

Note 1:  =
 = 0 for a any constant value

Note 2: 
 

=  =
  
      = 
= 0  
     0
= 
   

Therefore, 
  = 
   .

3. Calculate the probability that the flight time will be between 125 and 150 minutes.
125    150
= 125    140  140    150
= 
  


= 15    100
= 0.75



4. The 75th percentile of x is:

120     = 0.75
1
 120   = 0.75
20
 120 = 0.7520
 = 135
"# = 135

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5. Calculate the expected value, variance and standard deviation:

$ =

%&'


)
* =

&(

'+%,


= 130

(+,


./012 = 333. 3- = 5.77

= 33. 3-

Homework
A random variable x is uniformly distributed between 10 and 20.
a. Sketch:

b.   15 = 
 = 15 100.1 = 0.5

c. 12    18 = 
 = 18 120.1 = 0.6

d. $ =

%&'

e. )
* =

&

'+%,


= 15

+,


= 8. 3-

f. ./012 = 38. 3- = 2.8868

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6.2 Normal probability distribution

Characteristics:
1. The entire family for normal probability distributions is differentiated by its mean and its
standard deviation.

2. The highest point on the normal curve is at the:

(i) Mean (6)

(ii) Median (# )

(iii) Mode

3. The mean 6 can be any numerical value:

4. Its symmetric around 6, and the tails of the curve extend to infinity in both directions and
theoretically never touch the horizontal axis.
5. Larger 7
larger variability
flatter curves.

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6.
a.
b.
c.

The total area under the curve is 1.

The total area under the curve to the left of 6 is 0.5.
The total area under the curve to the right of 6 is 0.5.

Note: Since the normal probability distribution is symmetric, the empirical rule is valid.
Standard normal probability distribution
If z is normally distributed with 6 = 0 and 7 = 1, then z is said to have a standard normal
distribution.

8=

6
~ :0, 1
7

Examples:
1. P(Z < 1) = P(Z 1) = 0.8413

=NORMSDIST(1)

Answer: 0.8413

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2. P(0 < Z < 1) = P(0 Z 1) = P(Z < 1) P(Z < 0) = 0.8413 0.5 = 0.3413

=NORMSDIST(1)-NORMSDIST(0)

Answer: 0.3413

3. P(-1 < Z < 1) = P(-1 Z 1) = P(Z < 1) P(Z < -1) = 0.8413 0.1587 = 0.6826

=NORMSDIST(1)-NORMSDIST(-1)

Answer: 0.6827

4. P( Z > 1.58) = P( Z < 1.58) = 1 P(Z < 1.58) = 1 0.9429 = 0.0571

=1-NORMSDIST(1.58)

Answer: 0.0571

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5. P( Z < -0.498) = P( Z < -0.50) = 0.3085

Note: -0.498 is rounded to -0.50, but -0.492, for example, would be rounded to -0.49.

=NORMSDIST(-0.498)

Answer: 0.3092

6. P( Z > 1.47) = 1 P( Z < 1.47) = 1 0.9292 = 0.0708

=1-NORMSDIST(1.47)

Answer: 0.0708

7. P( Z < -1.47) = 0.0708

=NORMSDIST(-1.47)

Answer: 0.0708

Note: The answers to questions 6 and 7 are the same due to symmetry.

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8. P(Z < -3.3) = P( Z -3.3) = 0

Recall that we have an outlier when z < -3 or z > 3. Therefore, the probability that z is less than -3.3
is approximately zero.

=NORMSDIST(-3.3)

Answer: 0.000483

The inverse Normal distribution

Given: The area under the curve
Calculate: z-value
Question: The area to the left of z is 0.6331.

=NORMSINV(0.6331)

Answer: 0.3401

Question: Calculate the z-value so that the probability to get a larger z-value is 0.1.

=NORMSINV(0.9)

Answer: 1.28155
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Question: The area to the right of z is 0.119.

=NORMSINV(1-0.119) OR =NORMSINV(0.881)

Answer: 1.1800

Question: The area to the left of z is 0.33.

=NORMSINV(0.33)

Answer: -0.4399

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Percentiles
?

When asked to calculate a percentile, you should not always use the formula > =   @

(see Chapter 3).
If the 5th percentile is mentioned (for example) then we know that the area to the left of the point is
0.05.
If the 95th percentile is mentioned (for example) then we know that the area to the left of the point is
0.95.
Once we know what the area to the left of a point is, we can get the corresponding z value.
The corresponding z-value to the 5th percentile:

The corresponding z-value to the 95th percentile:

Example:
Suppose 6 = 100 and 7 = 5.
For the 5th percentile: 8 =

A+B

For the 95th percentile: 8 =

, 1.645 =

A+B
C

, 1.645 =

A+
#

A+
#

,  = 1.6455  100 = 91.775.

,  = 1.6455  100 = 108.225.

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10

Computing probabilities for any Normal probability distribution:

x = number of miles the tires will last
Given:
i.
Data is normally distributed
ii.
6 = 36 500 miles
iii. 7 = 5 000 miles
Question 1:
Calculate the probability that that a Grear tire will not last more than 20 000 miles:

Answer 1:
A+B
 +EF #
First we standardize the x value: 8 = C =
= 3.3.
# 

Therefore,   20 000 = G  3.3 = 0 (using the properties of outliers)

Answer 1 using Excel:
  20 000 =
Excel: =NORMDIST(20000, 36500, 5000, TRUE)
Answer:

0.0005

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11

Question 2:
What percentage of the tires can be expected to last more than 40 000 miles?

Answer 2:
A+B
( +EF #
First we standardize the x value: 8 =
=
= 0.7.
C
# 

Therefore,  H 40 000 = G H 0.70 = 1 G  0.70 = 1 0.7580 = 0.242

Answer 2 using Excel:

 H 40 000 = 1   40 000 =
Excel: = 1 - NORMDIST(40000, 36500, 5000, TRUE)
Answer:

0.24196

Question 3:
Calculate the probability that a tires lifetime is between 20 000 and 40 000 miles:

Answer 3:
First we standardize the x values:
8=

A+B
C

( +EF #
# 

= 0.7 and 8 =

A+B
C

 +EF #
# 

= 3.3

Therefore, 20 000    40 000 = 3.3  G  0.70 = G  0.70 G  3.3
= 0.7580 0.0005 = 0.7575
Answer 3 using Excel:
20 000    40 000 =   40 000   20000 =
Excel: = NORMDIST(40000, 36500, 5000, TRUE) - NORMDIST(20000, 36500, 5000, TRUE)
Answer:

0.7576
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12

Question 4:
How long must the guarantee period be so that less than 2.5% of the tires that are under guarantee
will be replaced?

Answer 4:
If we know the area to the left of z equals 0.025, we can find the corresponding z-value:
8=

A+B
C

1.96 =

A+EF #
# 

Now we solve for x:  = 1.965 000  36 500 = 26 700

Answer 4 using Excel:
Excel: =NORMINV(0.025, 36500, 5000)
Answer:

26700.19

Question 5:
Compute the minimum tire mileage for the top 2.5% of Grear tires.

Answer 5:
If we know the area to the left of z equals 0.975, we can find the corresponding z-value:
8=

A+B
C

1.96 =

A+EF #
# 

Now we solve for x:  = 1.965 000  36 500 = 46 300

Answer 5 using Excel:
Excel: =NORMINV(0.975,36500,5000)
Answer:

46299.81
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13

Typical exam questions

Questions 1 to5 are based on the following information:
The time spent waiting in queues (in minutes) to buy tickets for a soccer match is uniformly
distributed between 25 and 40 minutes.
Let  = time (in minutes) spent in queues.
Question 1
The probability density function of  is:


(A)
 = where 25  40

#
0
elsewhere

(C)
 = F# where 25  40
0
elsewhere

(E)
 = (# where 25  40
0
elsewhere

(B)
 = 0 where 25  40



elsewhere
#

(D)
 = 0 where 25  40


F#
elsewhere

Answer 1: Answer = A.


=
for 25  40

 = I(+# #
0
elsewhere
Question 2
The 75th percentile of  is:
Answer 2

25    36.25 = 
 = 36.25 25 



1
 = 0.75
15

How did we know P75 = 36.25? By taking  25 # = 0.75. Therefore,  25 = 0.7515
and consequently,  = 11.25  25 = 36.25.

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14

Question 3
The variance of  is:
Answer 3


 40 25
)
* =
=
= 18.75
12
12

Question 4
The probability that the time (in minutes) spent in queues is more than 22 minutes is:
Answer 4

 H 22 = 
 = 40 25   = 1.

#

Question 5
The probability that the time (in minutes) spent in queues is between 27 and 36 minutes is:
Answer 5

27    36 = 
 = 36 27 # = 0.6.

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15

Question 6
In the following probability statement, 8 H
 = 0.95, the value
represents:
Given: 8 is a standard normal random variable.
(A) the median of the standard normal distribution.
(B) the 5th percentile of the standard normal distribution.
(C) the 95th percentile of the standard normal distribution.
(D) the standard error of the standard normal distribution.
(E) the 95th value of the standard normal distribution.
Answer 6

The 5th percentile of the standard normal distribution. Answer = B.

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16

A TYPICAL MISTAKE THAT STUDENTS MAKE

Question 7
The IQ of people is normally distributed with an average of 100 and a standard deviation of 15.
Calculate the 90th percentile of the IQ values.
Hint: The value of NORMSINV(0.1) in Excel is -1.282.
Answer 7
?
Most of you will probably want to use the formula that was given in Chapter 3: > =  @.
This is wrong! You can only use that formula when the original raw data set is given, because the
index i indicates which position in the ordered original data set you need to go to. Since we did not
give you the original data set; this is a dead end.
The correct answer:
Given:
The value of NORMSINV(0.1) in Excel
is -1.282. Therefore,

A+B

Due to symmetry we have the following graph:

And: The 90th percentile means that 90% of the
values are to the left of that point. Therefore,

A+

8 = C , 1.282 = # ,  = 1.28215  100 = 119.23.

Therefore, the 90th percentile is equal to 119.23 (J = 119.23).

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17

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18

Cumulative probabilities for the standard normal distribution

Cumulative
probability

z
z
-3.0
-2.9
-2.8
-2.7
-2.6
-2.5
-2.4
-2.3
-2.2
-2.1
-2.0
-1.9
-1.8
-1.7
-1.6
-1.5
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-1.1
-1.0
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
-0.0

.00
.0013
.0019
.0026
.0035
.0047
.0062
.0082
.0107
.0139
.0179
.0228
.0287
.0359
.0446
.0548
.0668
.0808
.0968
.1151
.1357
.1587
.1841
.2119
.2420
.2743
.3085
.3446
.3821
.4207
.4602
.5000

.01
.0013
.0018
.0025
.0034
.0045
.0060
.0080
.0104
.0136
.0174
.0222
.0281
.0351
.0436
.0537
.0655
.0793
.0951
.1131
.1335
.1562
.1814
.2090
.2389
.2709
.3050
.3409
.3783
.4168
.4562
.4960

.02
.0013
.0018
.0024
.0033
.0044
.0059
.0078
.0102
.0132
.0170
.0217
.0274
.0344
.0427
.0526
.0643
.0778
.0934
.1112
.1314
.1539
.1788
.2061
.2358
.2676
.3015
.3372
.3745
.4129
.4522
.4920

.03
.0012
.0017
.0023
.0032
.0043
.0057
.0075
.0099
.0129
.0166
.0212
.0268
.0336
.0418
.0516
.0630
.0764
.0918
.1093
.1292
.1515
.1762
.2033
.2327
.2643
.2981
.3336
.3707
.4090
.4483
.4880

.04
.0012
.0016
.0023
.0031
.0041
.0055
.0073
.0096
.0125
.0162
.0207
.0262
.0329
.0409
.0505
.0618
.0749
.0901
.1075
.1271
.1492
.1736
.2005
.2296
.2611
.2946
.3300
.3669
.4052
.4443
.4840

.05
.0011
.0016
.0022
.0030
.0040
.0054
.0071
.0094
.0122
.0158
.0202
.0256
.0322
.0401
.0495
.0606
.0735
.0885
.1056
.1251
.1469
.1711
.1977
.2266
.2578
.2912
.3264
.3632
.4013
.4404
.4801

.06
.0011
.0015
.0021
.0029
.0039
.0052
.0069
.0091
.0119
.0154
.0197
.0250
.0314
.0392
.0485
.0594
.0721
.0869
.1038
.1230
.1446
.1685
.1949
.2236
.2546
.2877
.3228
.3594
.3974
.4364
.4761

.07
.0011
.0015
.0021
.0028
.0038
.0051
.0068
.0089
.0116
.0150
.0192
.0244
.0307
.0384
.0475
.0582
.0708
.0853
.1020
.1210
.1423
.1660
.1922
.2206
.2514
.2843
.3192
.3557
.3936
.4325
.4721

.08
.0010
.0014
.0020
.0027
.0037
.0049
.0066
.0087
.0113
.0146
.0188
.0239
.0301
.0375
.0465
.0571
.0694
.0838
.1003
.1190
.1401
.1635
.1894
.2177
.2483
.2810
.3156
.3520
.3897
.4286
.4681

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.09
.0010
.0014
.0019
.0026
.0036
.0048
.0064
.0084
.0110
.0143
.0183
.0233
.0294
.0367
.0455
.0559
.0681
.0823
.0985
.1170
.1379
.1611
.1867
.2148
.2451
.2776
.3121
.3483
.3859
.4247
.4641
19

Cumulative probabilities for the standard normal distribution

Cumulative
probability

0
z
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0

.00
.5000
.5398
.5793
.6179
.6554
.6915
.7257
.7580
.7881
.8159
.8413
.8643
.8849
.9032
.9192
.9332
.9452
.9554
.9641
.9713
.9772
.9821
.9861
.9893
.9918
.9938
.9953
.9965
.9974
.9981
.9987

.01
.5040
.5438
.5832
.6217
.6591
.6950
.7291
.7611
.7910
.8186
.8438
.8665
.8869
.9049
.9207
.9345
.9463
.9564
.9649
.9719
.9778
.9826
.9864
.9896
.9920
.9940
.9955
.9966
.9975
.9982
.9987

.02
.5080
.5478
.5871
.6255
.6628
.6985
.7324
.7642
.7939
.8212
.8461
.8686
.8888
.9066
.9222
.9357
.9474
.9573
.9656
.9726
.9783
.9830
.9868
.9898
.9922
.9941
.9956
.9967
.9976
.9982
.9987

z
.03
.5120
.5517
.5910
.6293
.6664
.7019
.7357
.7673
.7967
.8238
.8485
.8708
.8907
.9082
.9236
.9370
.9484
.9582
.9664
.9732
.9788
.9834
.9871
.9901
.9925
.9943
.9957
.9968
.9977
.9983
.9988

.04
.5160
.5557
.5948
.6331
.6700
.7054
.7389
.7704
.7995
.8264
.8508
.8729
.8925
.9099
.9251
.9382
.9495
.9591
.9671
.9738
.9793
.9838
.9875
.9904
.9927
.9945
.9959
.9969
.9977
.9984
.9988

.05
.5199
.5596
.5987
.6368
.6736
.7088
.7422
.7734
.8023
.8289
.8531
.8749
.8944
.9115
.9265
.9394
.9505
.9599
.9678
.9744
.9798
.9842
.9878
.9906
.9929
.9946
.9960
.9970
.9978
.9984
.9989

.06
.5239
.5636
.6026
.6406
.6772
.7123
.7454
.7764
.8051
.8315
.8554
.8770
.8962
.9131
.9279
.9406
.9515
.9608
.9686
.9750
.9803
.9846
.9881
.9909
.9931
.9948
.9961
.9971
.9979
.9985
.9989

.07
.5279
.5675
.6064
.6443
.6808
.7157
.7486
.7794
.8078
.8340
.8577
.8790
.8980
.9147
.9292
.9418
.9525
.9616
.9693
.9756
.9808
.9850
.9884
.9911
.9932
.9949
.9962
.9972
.9979
.9985
.9989

.08
.5319
.5714
.6103
.6480
.6844
.7190
.7517
.7823
.8106
.8365
.8599
.8810
.8997
.9162
.9306
.9429
.9535
.9625
.9699
.9761
.9812
.9854
.9887
.9913
.9934
.9951
.9963
.9973
.9980
.9986
.9990

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.09
.5359
.5753
.6141
.6517
.6879
.7224
.7549
.7852
.8133
.8389
.8621
.8830
.9015
.9177
.9319
.9441
.9545
.9633
.9706
.9767
.9817
.9857
.9890
.9916
.9936
.9952
.9964
.9974
.9981
.9986
.9990
20