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Real time wind speed analysis and prediction of wind power generation using Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

P.Sardar Maran1
Research Scholar & Scientist Sathyabama University Jeppiaar Nagar, Chennai, India +91-9790905837

R.Ponnusamy2
Principal Madha Engineering College Madha Nagar, Chennai, India +91-9952529143

AbstractThe power generation from wind resource has gained a high level attention in India. Wind energy is a clean and acceptable source to meet the demand of power scenario in India. Wind power is now-a-days one of the predominant alternative sources of energy, representing about 10% of the energy consumption in India. Tamil Nadu is holding 5904 MW installed power capacity through wind energy. The measurement of wind speed is one of several important metric requirements for estimating wind power generation. This paper aims to analyzed real time wind estimation and predict accurate wind energy using 50m instrumented meteorological tower data. The model has been developed with the help of artificial neural network technology and is found to be in good agreement. Keywords- wind analysis, wind energy, artificial neural network

Indira Gandhi Atomic Research (IGCAR), Kalpakkam at various levels. The 50m instrumented meteorological tower having different level (50m, 32m,16m, 8m, 2m) sensors attached for wind, humidity, temperature parameters. Wind speed prediction is necessary as wind is an intermittent source of energy. There are different types of models available for predicting wind energy. Artificial neural network is a promising technology in wind energy prediction and has been widely utilized various fields and one step ahead feed forward back propagation algorithm is found to be good. The meteorological factors like, wind speed and air density greatly influence the wind power generation. The available wind power is given by (1)

I. INTRODUCTION Today India facing severe shortage of electricity and it is projected that by 2012. India is holding fifth position in terms of installed wind power capacity as on March 2011 with an installed capacity of 13065 MW [1, 2].India will have to add approximately another 150,000 MW to its current capacity, which is an average increase of 10,000 MW annually [3,6]. India has a good potential of wind throughout the country, Winds in India are influenced by the strong southwest sumer monsoon, which starts in May-June, when cool, humid air moves towards the land and weaker north-east winter monsoon, which starts in October, when cool dry air moves towards the ocean. Winds during the period from November to March are relatively weak in India though higher winds are available during a part of the period on the coastline of the state of Tamilnadu. As a result of scientific assessment of wind resources [7, 8, 9,10] throughout the country, wind power has emerged as a viable and cost effective option for power generation. At 50m level the installable potential of power in Tamil Nadu is 5374 MW. However the potential would change as per real land availability [11]. The wind speed data from meteorological tower has potential relationship for the evaluation of wind energy. For the present study the data is collected at Anupuram meteorological tower erected by

Where is the Air density in Kg/m3 , A is the swept area and V is the wind speed in m/s. II. DATA SOURCE

The Data specification for this paper is collected from 50 metre Meteorological Tower located in Anupuram, near Kalpakkam by Indira Gandhi Atomic Research (IGCAR), Kalpakkam, Tamilnadu, India. These data can be used to assess the location for wind farms in and around Kalpakkam. The process adopted to collect the Data is Targeted location survey An automated IGCAR wind tower established at Kalpakkam is capable of storing the data every day. An analysis has been done and the probability is taken into account. Environmental data are being collected from the specific targeted location. The following Table 1. Shows monthly average wind speed in m/s for three years from January 2008 to December 2010 at various level of height.

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TABLE 1 Height in meter 50 32 2010 16 8 2 50 32 2009 16 8 2 50 32 2008 16 8 2

MONTHLY AVERAGE WIND SPEED (m/s) DATA FOR THE YEAR 2008-2010

Months Jan 04.8 04.0 03.2 02.6 02.0 04.7 04.3 03.0 02.5 01.8 3.57 3.17 2.87 2.29 1.76 Feb 03.9 03.2 02.6 02.2 01.8 03.5 03.1 02.3 02.0 01.6 3.43 3.03 2.83 2.19 1.08 Mar 04.2 03.4 02.8 02.4 01.9 04.0 03.8 02.6 02.2 01.8 3.95 2.95 2.55 2.07 1.75 Apr 05.2 04.4 03.6 03.1 02.6 04.4 04.1 03.4 03.0 02.5 3.59 3.19 2.89 2.57 1.97 May 04.7 04.0 03.2 02.8 02.1 04.8 03.5 03.8 03.3 02.8 4.78 4.08 3.88 3.42 2.69 Jun 05.0 04.0 03.2 02.8 01.8 05.3 04.5 03.7 03.3 02.7 4.28 3.98 3.84 3.36 2.59 Jul 04.5 03.6 02.8 02.4 01.5 05.7 04.7 03.9 03.4 02.6 4.18 3.78 3.38 2.98 2.33 Aug 04.1 03.3 02.6 02.2 01.4 04.2 03.0 02.8 02.3 01.5 3.50 3.25 3.05 2.63 1.90 Sep 02.7 02.0 01.7 01.4 01.1 04.4 03.4 02.9 02.6 01.8 3.93 3.52 3.22 2.79 1.99 Oct 02.9 02.3 01.9 01.4 01.1 04.2 03.6 02.8 02.4 01.8 3.11 2.91 2.61 2.10 1.40 Nov 04.3 03.5 02.8 02.1 01.5 04.3 03.5 02.8 02.3 01.7 4.03 3.83 3.53 2.83 1.74 Dec 04.2 03.4 02.7 01.9 01.4 05.3 04.3 03.5 02.8 02.0 3.95 3.45 3.15 2.54 1.61

Year

III.

WIND SPEED ANALYSIS

Barometric Pressure (kPa)

Wind Speed (m/s)

Month (January to December) Month (January to December) Fig.1. Monthly average wind speeds measured at different heights Fig.2. Monthly average pressure and temperature variations

Monthly Average Pressure vs Temperature The monthly average temperature and average atmospheric pressure are collected for energy estimation analysis for the existence relation between them.

Yearly Average wind speed variation The wind speed variations for three consecutive years and also the average over three years are displayed in the following Fig.3 chart. The wind speed data at ten minutes interval as taken into account for overall yearly average. The 50 meter instrumented meteorological data gathered for 8000 hours which include more than fifty thousand records

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Temperature (oC)

A Monthly Average wind speed at different heights The wind speed data are collected from Anupuram, Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu for the period from January 2008 to December 2010. The monthly average wind speed measured at different heights (50, 32, 16, 08, 02 meters) and their variations are taken. Fig.1. shows the monthly average wind speed from the sources.

The variations between monthly average atmospheric pressure and temperature for the year are shown in Fig.2.

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Wind Speed (m/s)

Energy Generation per month (KW)

for three years. The monthly average wind speed increases in the month between July to August after gradually decreases in November.

Monthly Average wind speed (m/s) Fig.5. Monthly wind power generation per KW with wind speed Month (January to December) Fig.3. Three years (2008-2010) wind speed variations

V WIND ENERGY ESTIMATION USING ANN A Artificial Neural Network Artificial Neural Network is a wide accepted technology mainly used for prediction techniques for various applications. A feed forward neural network with back propagation algorithm is used to predict the wind energy. A feed-forward neural network has layers of processing elements, which make independent computations on data that it receives and passes the results to another layer and finally, a subgroup of one or more processing elements determine the output from the network. The database is constructed with three years of data from January 2088 to December 2010. For training the neural first two years of data is used and validated by the remaining last year data. The best accuracy model is predicted with one hidden layer with sigmoid function. The linear activation function is used for output layer. The accurate value of the trained network is predicted and compared with measured values. The following fig. 6 shows the predicted wind energy output.
Energy output per month (KWh)

Yearly Average humidity variation The relative humidity of air is the amount of water vapor in the air. The air density depends on the relative humidity. As the relative humidity increases the air density decreases. The following fig.4 shows the relative humidity decreases between the months of April to June. The temperature also increases in this months shows a relation between temperature and air density.

Relative Humidity (%)

Month (January to December) Fig.4. Monthly average variations of Relative Humidity for three years
IV

WIND POWER GENERATION

The wind power is generated with wind speed, density of air at the site. The wind speed has a major influence on wind turbine power output. From the monthly average wind speed is used to shows the variation of monthly power generation in kWh per KW for the period of years. The following fig.5 shows the monthly wind power generation in KW with wind speed.

Test Patterns Fig.6. Measured and Predicted Energy output

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VI CONCLUSIONS Wind energy technology is currently making a significant contribution to the electric power generation systems in India. Now India is one of the leading countries in the world for the development and utilization of wind energy. According to the growth of wind energy India will achieved high potential in future. The present investigations showed that at 50m height and above the ground level reach a good potential for wind energy. These areas seem to be very convenient for wind turbine installation. VII ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We would like to thank to Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR), Kalpakkam for providing 50m meteorological tower data for predicting wind energy in Anupuram area. VIII REFERENCES
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