DIRECTIONS

The Newsletter of the Syracuse Metropolitan Transportation Council (SMTC) Fall 2003

What is Travel Demand Modeling?

How Future Tr Patterns How Can it Predict Future Tr avel Patterns and Demand?

ravel Demand Modeling is the utilization of a computer software package to replicate the real world transportation system around us (roads, intersections, traffic control devices, congestion delays, use of a transit system, etc.). Once the computer model can accurately replicate the existing conditions of a study area, it can then be used to predict future travel patterns and demands based on changes in the transportation system (e.g., new roads, wider roads with more capacity, closed roads); changes in the land use (e.g., more residential development, a new industrial site, etc.); and changing demographics (more or less people in a specific area, access to a vehicle, etc.). Travel demand forecasting is a state-of-the-art analysis tool used in the transportation planning process. By simulating the current roadway conditions and the travel demand on those roadways, deficiencies in the system can be identified. It is also an important tool in planning future network enhancements and analyzing currently proposed projects. Travel demand models are developed to simulate actual travel patterns and existing demand conditions. Networks are constructed using current roadway inventory files containing data for each roadway within the network. Travel demand is generated using socioeconomic data such as household size, automobile availability, and employment data. Once the existing conditions are evaluated and adjusted to

By simulating the current roadway conditions and the travel demand on those roadways, deficiencies in the system can be identified.

Travel demand forecasting is a state-of-the-art analysis tool used in the transportation planning process . . . In addition to simulating vehicular traffic, the model can adjust for transit vehicles, bicycles and pedestrians.

satisfactorily replicate actual travel patterns and vehicle roadway volumes, the model inputs are then altered to project future-year conditions. Using these inputs, the model is able to derive future capacity limitations relative to the current roadway system. Once these deficiencies are identified, potential improvements are evaluated by rerunning the model with an improved or modified transportation system. A range of different street networks, and even different land use patterns are tested this way. Future-year traffic projections are based on numerous assumptions about how population, employment, automobile operating costs, and other factors will change over time. As such, future year-projections are only as good as the assumptions that are made. The Syracuse Metropolitan Transportation Council (SMTC) is currently in the process of developing a new travel demand model for the Metropolitan Planning Area (which includes all of Onondaga County and small portions of Madison and Oswego Counties). In addition to simulating vehicular traffic, the model will be able to adjust for transit vehicles, bicycles and pedestrians. The model will be a traditional, four-step model that involves the processes of (1) trip generation, (2) trip distribution, (3) mode choice, and (4) trip assignment. The new model will be utilizing TransCAD software and include a Geographical Information Systems
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Residents, Students, Employees and Employers Discuss ransportation Meeting Univer ersity Transpor Univer sity Hill Transpor tation Issues at Public Meeting
he Syracuse Metropolitan Transportation Council (SMTC) held the first of three scheduled public meetings for its University Hill Comprehensive Transportation Study on Thursday, September 11, 2003, at Nottingham High School in Syracuse, N.Y. Residents, students, employees and employers of the University Hill area attended the meeting to hear more about the comprehensive planning project that is currently examining transportation, land use, access, and parking issues in the University Hill area. The meeting provided the opportunity for the SMTC and its consultants to formally present the study to the public. In addition, topics such as the study purpose, goals/objectives, study area, and the existing conditions and data analysis performed to date were discussed. The bulk of the meeting, however, centered on gathering public comments and opinions on the current and future transportation and land use issues (including vehicular, bicycle, pedestrian, and transit access; safety issues; and parking) affecting the University Hill community. Public input obtained from this meeting will be considered throughout the remaining stages of the study, and will be factored into subsequent reports, conclusions, and/or recommendations. Did you miss the public meeting? The presentation can be viewed on-line at the following web site address: http://www.smtcmpo.org/ headlines.asp. For more information on the University Hill Comprehensive Transportation Study or to submit public comment, visit the project web site at http://www.universityhillstudy.com. Comments may also be submitted by contacting the SMTC at (315) 422-5716.

The University Hill Comprehensive Transportation Study Public Meeting featured Comment Stations where attendees could ask questions and provide input on Parking; Traffic & Mobility; and Public Transportation.

SMTC Participates in Walk Your Child to School Event

Students, parents, teachers, local agencies and elected officials participated in the Greater Syracuse SAFE KIDS Coalition-sponsored Walk Your Child To School event on October 8, 2003. Photo location: Edward Smith Elementary School

he Greater Syracuse SAFE KIDS Coalition sponsored the local Walk Your Child To School event on October 8, 2003. Schools throughout the Syracuse Metropolitan Area were among the many sites across the nation conducting the safe-to-school promotional event. SAFE KIDS is committed to preventing the number one killer of children ages 14 and under unintentional injury. Pedestrian injury is the second leading cause of unintentional injury-related death among children ages 5-14. Contributing factors include an overestimate of childrens pedestrian safety skills, which include judgment of speed, spatial relations, distance, depth perception, and proper scanning ability for traffic to cross streets safely. The SMTC participated in the event as part of its annual Bicycle and Pedestrian Planning activities, joining students, parents, teachers, local agencies and elected officials interested in working to prevent pedestrian injury to children in our community.

Dev New Tra rav Development of a New Travel Demand Model

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(GIS) interface. Once completed, the model will be utilized by SMTC staff to perform a wide range of transportation planning activities.

Household Survey is Part of Travel Demand Model Effort

n order to more accurately simulate existing travel patterns for the new Travel Demand Model, the Syracuse Metropolitan Transportation Councils (SMTC) consultant has been conducting a regional household travel survey throughout October and early November 2003. The results of the travel survey will assist in planning for improved transportation services within the Syracuse Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA). Over a six-week time period, several hundred households throughout the Syracuse MPA were contacted by phone and asked to participate in the household travel

survey. According to SMTC Director, Mary M. Rowlands, Households were contacted at random throughout the SMTC study area and asked to participate in a survey. Interested participants were then asked to record a travel diary for one day, recording their destination address, travel time, mode of travel, and vehicle occupancy for all of their trips throughout the day. The results of the household travel diaries will then be used to map the travel patterns of our region, providing a better understanding of how, when and where people travel. All information collected is confidential and individual responses will not be released.

Public Meeting to I-481 Present I-481 Study Draf Recommendations aft Dr af t Recommendations & Implementation Plan

Y
I-481 Transpor ransportation Study I-481 Corridor Transpor tation S tudy

PUBLIC MEETING
Thursda Nov sday Thur sday, Nov ember 20, 2003 6:30 PM
East Syracuse-Minoa High School Road, Fremont Road, E. Syracuse, NY
The meeting will be held in the ESM cafeteria.
The meeting location is handicapped accessible. Please advise the SMTC of any specific needs required to facilitate your participation at this meeting.

oure invited to attend the I-481 Industrial Corridor Transportation Study public meeting (the third of three scheduled meetings) to be held on November 20, 2003. This public meeting will include a recap of the previously presented alternative solutions (presented to the public on 7/15/03), but will mainly center on the presentation of draft recommendations and an implementation plan. Utilizing the public input obtained at this meeting, the SMTC will then move forward in completing the Studys Final Report. The purpose of the I-481 Industrial Corridor Transportation Study is to examine the transportation implications of current and anticipated office and industrial development in the I-481 study area, and to identify what actions can be taken to make the most efficient use of the existing transportation systems finite capacity, while considering its impact on the rest of the community (i.e., residents who live and travel along the same road network). For more information, contact the SMTC at (315) 422-5716.

DIRECTIONS
DIRECTIONS is a publication of the Syracuse Metropolitan Transportation Council (SMTC). Formed in 1966 as a result of the Federal Aid Highway Act of 1962, and Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964, the SMTC serves as the metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for the Greater Syracuse Metropolitan Area, and provides a forum for cooperative decision-making in the development of transportation plans and programs. Its committees (member agencies) are comprised of elected and appointed officials, representing local, state and federal governments or agencies having an interest in and responsibility for the transportation system in the Greater Syracuse Metropolitan Area.

TEA-2 Gets -21 Extension TEA -21 Gets 5-Month Extension

egislation passed the U.S. House of Representatives on September 24 and the U.S. Senate on September 26 to extend federal transit and highway programs autho rized under the Transportation Equity Act of the 21st Century (TEA-21) through February 29, 2004. The bill was subsequently signed by President Bush prior to the expiration of TEA-21 on September 30, 2003. During the five-month extension, funding will be authorized on a pro-rate basis using the funding levels established in the fiscalyear 2004 Congressional budget resolution. With the Presidents signature, the extension legislation (H.R. 3087), Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2003 or P.L. 108-88, directs the distribution of funds to the states, transit providers and others for the five-month period ending February 29. While the new law sets spending levels over the extension period, it does not take full effect until after October 31. The new law effectively postpones TEA-21s expiration date from September 30 until February 29, setting up another deadline aimed at forcing Congress to act on new transportation legislation. Source: Tea3.org a resource devoted to tracking the TEA-21 reauthorization issue.

Editor Wayne A. Westervelt Production/Layout Patricia A. Wortley

TEA-21
Moving Americans into the 21st Century

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