Calculele diagnosticului financiar

1. Analiza echilibrului financiar pe baza bilantului

Indicator
FR
NFR
TN
CF

2008

2009

2010

121,333,612.00
33,334,496.00
87,999,116.00

-34,615,624.00
-56,595,060.00
-60,056,622.00
-148,055,738.00

-93,170,507.00
176,046,714.00
-82,876,207.00
-22,819,585.00

2. Analiza performantei financiare pe baza contului de profit si pierdere

A.Varianta franceza
Indicator

2008

2009

2010

0.00
1,123,830,022.00
758,895,767.00

0.00
1,193,307,001.00
876,114,549.00

0.00
1,317,859,066.00
994,232,361.00

426,325,509.00
280,943,159.00
4,199,475.00
285,142,634.00
239,519,812.56

526,640,133.00
345,149,578.00
16,133,927.00
361,283,505.00
303,478,144.20

591,805,532.00
443,664,112.00
7,840,409.00
451,504,521.00
379,263,797.64

B.Varianta anglo-saxona
Indicator
2008

2009

2010

567,443,040.00
436,576,569.00
423,931,469.00
361,281,505.00

631,358,556.00
532,118,165.00
526,656,056.00
451,504,521.00

MC
PE
VA
EBE
RE
RF
RB
RN

EBITDA
EBIT
EBT
RN

Indicator

434,070,996.00
347,863,200.00
331,278,178.00
285,142,634.00

2008

CFD

Indicator
ROE
Rec
Gr indat
Levier
L generala
L rapida
L imediata

2009
493,694,893.00

2008

3.Analiza fluxurilor de trezorerie

2010
338,486,976.00

4.Diagnosticul rentabilitatii si al riscului

2009
2010

0.152531885

0.136485496

0.159244294

0.117481505

0.112256954

0.132078588

0.210929341

0.182456615

0.179081949

0.267313628

0.223176675

0.218148388

1.718976723

1.415525104

1.564990064

1.603031826

1.311755602

1.487566111

1.487086929

1.207986099

1.410142158

librului financiar pe baza bilantului

Formula de calcul
FR=CPR + Dat > 1an - Imobilizari
NFR = Active circulante Disponibilitati Datorii < 1an
TN=FR-NFR
CF=TN=TN1-TN0

nanciare pe baza contului de profit si pierdere

Formula de calcul

MC=Venituri din vanzarea marfurilor-Cheltuieli privind marfurile

PE=Productia vanduta+Variatia stocurilor+Productia imobilizata
VA=MC+PE-Consumuri externe
EBE=VA+ven din subventii-ch cu personalul-ch cu alte impozite,taxe si
varsaminte asimilate
RE=EBE+alt ven din exploatare-alte cheltuieli din exploatare
RF=Ven financiare-Chelt financiare
RC=RE+RF
RN=RB-Impozit pe profit

Formula de calcul
EBITDA=Ven tot-chelt tot-ch cu dob-ch cu impz/profit-ajust de valoare
-ajustari pv provizioanele
EBIT=EBITDA-Ajust de valoare-Ajust pv provizioanele
EBT=EBIT-Chelt cu dob
RN=EBT-Impozit pe profit

liza fluxurilor de trezorerie

Formula de calcul
PN+Dobanzi-(Imob1-Imob0)-(Acirc1-Acirc0-Dat<1an)

sticul rentabilitatii si al riscului

Formula de calcul
ROE=PN/CPR=PN1/CA*CA/AE*AE/CPR0
Rec=(EBIT-Impozit)/AE0 =(PN+Dobanzi)/AE0
Grad de indatorare=(Dat>1an)/(CPR+Dat>1an)
Levier=(Dat>1an)/CPR
Lichiditate generala=Active curente/Pasive curente
Lichiditate rapida=(Active curente-Stocuri)/Pasive curente
Lichiditate imediata=(Active curente -Stocuri-Creante)/Pasive curente

SOLD LA:
31.12.2008
31.12.2009

Denumirea indicatorului

Nr. rd.

A. ACTIVE IMOBILIZATE

19

I. Imobilizari necorporale
II.Imobilizari corporale

497.865.672

496,254,194

496,083,022

1. Terenuri si constructii

1.375.585.512

1,879,684,498

1,924,073,125

2. Instalatii tehnice si masini

53.846.385

76,536,578

74,398,001

3. Alte instalatii, utilaje si

mobilier

6.277.296

8,163,324

7,987,438

10

101.205.611

219 238 909

434,997,400

11
18
35

1.536.914.804
939,496
573.719.841

20

30.188.259

35,798,080

26,691,646

21

1.091.194

4,495,600

8,189,652

22

26,964

2,266

23

13,872

30,573

73,852

24
30
33
34
36

31.320.289
175.780.842
0
366.618.710
866.461

40,326,519
228,685,324
112,130,276
216,731,089
873,297

34,955,150
245,303,577
196,566,265
1,340,179

D. DATORII: Sumele care

trebuie platite intr-o
perioada de pana la un an:

45

311.163.974

347,807,623

336,853,787

E. ACTIVE CIRCULANTE /
DATORII CURENTE NETE

46

259.097.372

249,253,607

141,211,185

F. TOTAL ACTIVE MINUS

DATORII CURENTE

47

2.294.817.344

56

608.662.481

584,884,716

527,448,777

60

27.173.940

29,675,456

31,286,516

66

96.373.889

129605270

175,927,548

70
71

117.738.440
251.933.300

117738440
0

117738440
-

72

98.309.305

586393642

550825229

4. Avansuri si imobilizari
corporale in curs
Total imobilizari
III. Imobilizari financiare
B. ACTIVE CIRCULANTE
I. Stocuri
1. Materii prime si materiale
consumabile
2. Productia in curs de
executie
3. Produse finite si marfuri
4. Avansuri pentru
cumparari stocuri
Total stocuri:
II. Creante
III. Investitii pe termen
IV. Casa si conturi la banci
C. CHELTUIELI IN AVANS

G. DATORII: Sumele care

trebuie platite intr-o
perioada mai mare de un
an:
H. PROVIZIOANE
I. VENITURI IN AVANS:
J. CAPITAL SI REZERVE
I. Capital
II. Prime de capital
III. Rezerve din
reevaluare

1.1.2008

2.035.719.972,00 2,681,235,904 2,956,719,655

2,183,623,309 2,441,455,964
1,358,401
19,180,669
597,873,208
476,824,992

2,930,489,511 3,097,930,840

IV. Rezerve

77

Actiuni proprii

78

Castiguri legate de
instrumentele de
capitaluri proprii

79

Pierderi legate de
instrumentele de
capitaluri proprii

80

888.133.215
-

1255277282

1397977997

10,407,110

1,804,469

239,007,090
-

298,631,541
-

V. Profitul sau pierderea reportat:

Sold C

81

Sold D
82
10.407.110
VI. Profitul sau pierderea exercitiului financiar:
Sold C
83
224.006.454
Sold D
84
Repartizarea profitului

85

2.781.614

CAPITALURI PROPRII TOTAL (rd. 70+71+72+7778+79-80+81-82+83-8485)

86

1.566.931.990

Patrimoniul public

87

CAPITALURI - TOTAL

88

1.566.931.990

2,188,009,344 2,363,368,738

2,188,009,344 2,363,368,738

31.12.2010
3,275,070,816
497,791,432
2,248,840,900
78,829,250
7,295,310
396,222,107
2,731,187,567
46,091,817
558,979,824
20,992,549
6,636,035
25,539
27,654,123
333,719,058
171,851,407
25,755,236
1,540,861
357,177,874

203,263,326

3,478,334,142

564,224,722
31,249,312
296,513,318
117738440
514995580

1579143738
-

1,804,469
376,352,986

2,586,426,275

2,586,426,275

Denumirea indicatorului
1. Cifra de afaceri neta
Productia vanduta
Venituri din vanzarea
marfurilor
Venituri din dobanzi
inregistrate de entitatile
alcaror obiect de activitate
il constituie leasingul
Venituri din subventii de
exploatare aferente cifrei de
afaceri nete
2.Variatia stocurilor de
produse finite si a
productiei in curs de
executie
Sold C
Sold D
3.Productia realizata de
entitate pentru scopurile
sale proprii si
capitalizata
4.Alte venituri din
exploatare
VENITURI DIN
EXPLOATARE TOTAL
5.a)Cheltuieli cu materii
prime si materiale
consumabile
Alte cheltuieli materiale
b)Alte cheltuieli
externe(cu energia si
apa)
c)Cheltuieli privind
marfurile
6.Cheltuieli cu personalul
din care:
a)Salarii si indemnizatii
b)Cheltuieli cu
asigurarile si protectia
sociala
7.a)Ajustari de valoare
privind imobilizarile
corporale si necorporale
a.1)Cheltuieli
a.2)Venituri
b)Ajustari de valoare
privind activele
circulante
b.1)Cheltuieli

REALIZARI AFERENTE PERIOADEI DE RAPORTARE

31.12.2008
31.12.2009
31.12.2010
1,119,389,990
1,187,350,293
1,312,997,932
1,119,389,990
1,187,350,293
1,312,997,932
0

3,404,406
0

3,694,052
0

0
1,553,617

1,035,626

2,262,656

6,414,751

14,488,080

26,707,803

25,074,305

1,138,318,102

1,220,014,804

1,342,933,371

214,797,022

171,736,850

154,042,611

4,696,015

4,272,567

4,400,391

4,562,142

5,160,003

5,512,957

208,185,701

224,549,127

250,644,153

164,565,436

175,376,233

194,404,585

43,620,265

49,172,894

56,239,568

86,831,300

127,557,350

135,266,706

86,931,300
0

127,557,350
0

135,266,706
0

-3,125,020

1,698,061

-35,989,111

11,360,276

14,273,550

8,169,746

b.2)Venituri
8.Alte cheltuieli de
exploatare
8.1.Cheltuieli privind
prestatiile externe
8.2.Cheltuieli cu alte
impozite,taxe si
varsaminte asimilate
8.3.Cheltuieli cu
despagubiri,donatii si
active cedate
Cheltuieli privind
dobanzile de refinantare
inregistrate de entitatile
al caror obiect de
activitate il constituie
leasingul
Ajustari privind
provizioanele
Cheltuieli
Venituri
CHELTUIELI DE
EXPLOATARE TOTAL
PROFITUL SAU
PIERDEREA DIN
EXPLOATARE
PROFIT
PIERDERE
9.Venituri din interese de
participare
-din care,venituri
obtinute de la entitatile
afiliate
10.Venituri din alte
investitii si imprumuturi
care fac parte din
activele imobilizate
-din care,veniturile
obtinute de la entitatile
afiliate
11.Venituri din dobanzi
-din care veniturile
obtinute de la entitatile
afiliate
Alte venituri financiare
VENITURI FINANCIARE
TOTAL
12.Ajustari de valoare
privind imobilizarile
financiare si investitiile
detinute ca active
circulante
-Cheltuieli

14,485,296

12,575,409

11,158,857

338,826,267

338,280,208

385,428,756

140,879,076

136,023,032

159,670,746

124,384,557

124,925,289

151,782,676

73,562,634

77,331,887

73,975,334

2,501,516

1,611,060

-37,204

9,797,931
7,296,415

9,130,682
7,519,226

7,818,207
7,855,411

857,374,943

874,867,226

899,269,259

280,943,159
0

345,147,578
0

443,664,112
0

38

100

171

31,066,183

34,717,805

14,836,179

6,501,895

3,735,189

19,340,175

37,568,116

38,453,094

34,176,525

-997

-Venituri
13.Cheltuieli privind
dobanzile
-din care cheltuieli in
relatia cu entitatile
afiliate

997

16,585,022

12,645,100

5,462,109

Alte cheltuieli financiare

16,784,616

9,674,067

20,874,007

CHELTUIELI FINANCIARE
TOTAL

33,368,641

22,319,167

26,336,116

PTOFITUL SAU
PIERDEREA FINANCIARA
-Profit
-Pierdere
14.Profitul sau pierderea
curenta
-profit
- pierdere

4,199,475
0

16,133,927
0

7,840,409
0

285,142,634
0

361,281,505
0

451,504,521
0

15.Venituri extraordinare

16.Cheltuieli
extraordinare

0
0
1,175,886,218
890,743,584

0
0
1,258,467,898
897,186,393

0
0
1,377,109,896
925,605,375

285,142,634
0
46,135,544

361,281,505
0
62,649,964

451,504,521
0
75,151,535

239,007,090
0

298,631,541
0

376,352,986
0

17.Profitul sau pierderea

sin activitatea
extraordinara
-profit
- pierdere
VENITURI TOTALE
CHELTUIELI TOTALE
PROFITUL SAU
PIERDEREA BRUTA
-profit
-perdere
18.Impozitul pe profit
19.Alte impozite
nereprezentate la
elemente;e de mai sus
20PROFITUL SAU
PIERDEREA NETA A
EXERCITIULUI
FINANCIAR
-PROFIT
-PIERDERE

cv
cf
925,382,226 25,901,301
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
-200,000,000

Series3
Series2
Series1

CFD=Cfgest-Cresterea economica
CFD=PN+Amortizare+Dobanzi-(ImoBrute+Acnete)

PN=CA-ChVariabile-ChFixe-Impozit

Calculul amortizarii anuale

An
1
2
3
4

Vi

Aa
26,630,000
26,630,000
26,630,000
26,630,000

Element

CA
ChVariabile
ChFixe
EBE
Amortizare
EBIT
Dobanzi
EBT
Impozit pe profit
PN
Acnete
Acnete
CFD
K
1+K
CFD ACTUALIZAT

Calcul VAN
CFD

6,657,500
6,657,500
6,657,500
6,657,500

VramdeAm
19,972,500
13,315,000
6,657,500
0

1
162,679,972.92
114,654,525.95
3,209,161.91
44,816,285.06
6,657,500.00
38,158,785.06
0.00
38,158,785.06
6,105,405.61
32,053,379.45
0.00
0.00
38,710,879.45

2
179,895,073.32
126,787,483.31
3,209,161.91
49,898,428.10
6,657,500.00
43,240,928.10
0.00
43,240,928.10
6,918,548.50
36,322,379.60
0.00
0.00
42,979,879.60

3
198,931,908.00
140,204,373.03
3,209,161.91
55,518,373.06
6,657,500.00
48,860,873.06
0.00
48,860,873.06
7,817,739.69
41,043,133.37
0.00
0.00
47,700,633.37

0.1043025
1.104303
35,054,597.32

1.219484
35,244,315.79

1.346679
35,420,931.62

134,625,803.35
I0

CFDn
CFDa

Indicator
VAN
IP
RIR
TRn
TRa

46,630,000.00
-46,630,000.00

Valoare
134,625,803.35
3.887107084
71%
2 ani si 96 zile
2 ani si 268 zile

38,710,879.45
35,054,597.32

42,979,879.60
35,244,315.79

An
1
2
3
4
5
calcul TRn

Calcul g
1,187,350,293
1,312,997,932
0.105821879

CA2009
CA2010
g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0

Calcul CA2011
376,352,986
1,312,997,932

PN2010
CA2010

I0
CA2011

46,630,000.00
162,679,972.92

Estimare CA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

162,679,972.92
179,895,073.32
198,931,908.00
219,983,256.29
243,262,297.81

Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010

Element
CA2010
Chfixe2010
ChVariabile2010

Valoare
Procent
1,312,997,932.00 25,901,301.00
925,382,226.00

4
219,983,256.29
155,041,063.22
3,209,161.91
61,733,031.16
6,657,500.00
55,075,531.16
0.00
55,075,531.16
8,812,084.99
46,263,446.17
0.00
0.00
52,920,946.17

5
243,262,297.81
171,447,799.85
3,209,161.91
68,605,336.05
0.00
68,605,336.05
0.00
68,605,336.05
10,976,853.77
57,628,482.29
0.00
0.00
57,628,482.29

1.487141
35,585,689.00

1.642254
35,091,093.78

0.0197
0.7048

VR
9,500,000.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9,500,000.00
1,520,000.00
7,980,000.00
0.00
0.00
7,980,000.00

1.642254 i0
4,859,175.83

5 VR

46,630,000.00

-46,630,000.00

47,700,633.37
35,420,931.62

52,920,946.17
35,585,689.00

CFDn
CFDncum
38,710,879.45
22,564,330.26
42,979,879.60
65,544,209.86 >I0
47,700,633.37
113,244,843.23
52,920,946.17
166,165,789.41
57,628,482.29
223,794,271.69
2 ani
95.54 zile
96.00 zile

57,628,482.29
35,091,093.78

7,980,000.00
4,859,175.83

An
1
2
3
4
5
calcul TRa

CFDa
35,054,597.32
35,244,315.79
35,420,931.62
35,585,689.00
35,091,093.78
2 ani

CFDacum
20,433,106.20
55,677,421.99 >I0
91,098,353.61
126,684,042.61
161,775,136.39
267.59 zile
268.00 zile

Data

BET-C
(Lei)

30.11.2011

2,585.64

29.11.2011

2,558.59

28.11.2011

2,549.68

25.11.2011

2,586.31

24.11.2011

2,584.46

23.11.2011

2,620.85

22.11.2011

2,658.61

21.11.2011

2,678.70

18.11.2011

2,706.68

17.11.2011

2,732.97

16.11.2011

2,749.54

15.11.2011

2,755.01

14.11.2011

2,764.05

11.11.2011

2,780.34

10.11.2011

2,757.49

09.11.2011

2,770.44

08.11.2011

2,776.41

07.11.2011

2,777.34

04.11.2011

2,754.68

03.11.2011

2,724.70

02.11.2011

2,719.09

01.11.2011

2,730.66

31.10.2011

2,795.41

28.10.2011

2,838.51

27.10.2011

2,852.16

26.10.2011

2,752.62

25.10.2011

2,754.24

24.10.2011

2,764.37

21.10.2011

2,757.07

20.10.2011

2,724.65

19.10.2011

2,736.85

18.10.2011

2,713.68

17.10.2011

2,739.45

14.10.2011

2,724.26

13.10.2011

2,702.67

12.10.2011

2,737.60

11.10.2011

2,732.27

10.10.2011

2,715.05

07.10.2011

2,747.02

06.10.2011

2,627.23

05.10.2011

2,579.67

04.10.2011

2,565.37

03.10.2011

2,600.03

30.09.2011

2,648.19

29.09.2011

2,661.96

28.09.2011

2,643.38

27.09.2011

2,671.84

26.09.2011

2,596.95

23.09.2011

2,618.48

22.09.2011

2,662.06

21.09.2011

2,742.50

20.09.2011

2,725.87

Indice BETC

-0.01046
-0.00348
0.014367
-0.00072
0.01408
0.014408
0.007557
0.010445
0.009713
0.006063
0.001989
0.003281
0.005894
-0.00822
0.004696
0.002155
0.000335
-0.00816
-0.01088
-0.00206
0.004255
0.023712
0.015418
0.004809
-0.0349
0.000589
0.003678
-0.00264
-0.01176
0.004478
-0.00847
0.009496
-0.00554
-0.00793
0.012924
-0.00195
-0.0063
0.011775
-0.04361
-0.0181
-0.00554
0.013511
0.018523
0.0052
-0.00698
0.010767
-0.02803
0.00829
0.016643
0.030217
-0.00606

Indicator Valoare

Sursa

Rf
BETA i
E(RM)

http://www.bvb.ro/ListedCompanies/Securi
http://www.kmarket.ro/actiuni/afisare_actiu
http://www.bvb.ro/IndicesAndIndicators/ind

6%
0,75
0.00093

Calculul ratei de actualizare ca fiind o rata fara risc

E(Ri)=Rf-Bi(E(RM)-Rf)
E(Ri)=k

=>k=0.06-0.75(0.00093-0.06)
0.104303

19.09.2011

2,709.49

16.09.2011

2,735.47

15.09.2011

2,756.67

14.09.2011

2,746.67

13.09.2011

2,711.76

12.09.2011

2,737.05

09.09.2011

2,841.75

08.09.2011

2,868.53

07.09.2011

2,879.62

06.09.2011

2,803.42

05.09.2011

2,805.83

02.09.2011

2,867.95

01.09.2011

2,916.15

31.08.2011

2,917.41

30.08.2011

2,867.52

29.08.2011

2,862.96

26.08.2011

2,798.17

25.08.2011

2,817.99

24.08.2011

2,803.65

23.08.2011

2,779.13

22.08.2011

2,761.88

19.08.2011

2,730.20

18.08.2011

2,796.60

17.08.2011

2,898.65

16.08.2011

2,854.80

12.08.2011

2,865.28

11.08.2011

2,735.79

10.08.2011

2,752.11

09.08.2011

2,666.86

08.08.2011

2,759.96

05.08.2011

2,980.86

04.08.2011

3,131.60

03.08.2011

3,172.90

02.08.2011

3,230.15

01.08.2011

3,276.17

29.07.2011

3,221.67

28.07.2011

3,226.01

27.07.2011

3,229.19

26.07.2011

3,256.70

25.07.2011

3,261.44

22.07.2011

3,274.70

21.07.2011

3,256.41

20.07.2011

3,254.55

19.07.2011

3,247.98

18.07.2011

3,240.00

15.07.2011

3,288.38

14.07.2011

3,277.44

13.07.2011

3,306.28

12.07.2011

3,301.19

11.07.2011

3,351.59

08.07.2011

3,383.29

07.07.2011

3,400.04

06.07.2011

3,397.01

05.07.2011

3,415.94

04.07.2011

3,351.16

-0.00601
0.009589
0.00775
-0.00363
-0.01271
0.009326
0.038253
0.009424
0.003866
-0.02646
0.00086
0.02214
0.016806
0.000432
-0.0171
-0.00159
-0.02263
0.007083
-0.00509
-0.00875
-0.00621
-0.01147
0.024321
0.036491
-0.01513
0.003671
-0.04519
0.005965
-0.03098
0.03491
0.080037
0.050569
0.013188
0.018043
0.014247
-0.01664
0.001347
0.000986
0.008519
0.001455
0.004066
-0.00559
-0.00057
-0.00202
-0.00246
0.014932
-0.00333
0.0088
-0.00154
0.015267
0.009458
0.004951
-0.00089
0.005573
-0.01896

01.07.2011

3,318.73

30.06.2011

3,312.27

29.06.2011

3,320.98

28.06.2011

3,310.01

27.06.2011

3,278.59

24.06.2011

3,312.73

23.06.2011

3,310.64

22.06.2011

3,366.38

21.06.2011

3,357.50

20.06.2011

3,343.71

17.06.2011

3,353.58

16.06.2011

3,349.16

15.06.2011

3,390.12

14.06.2011

3,401.11

10.06.2011

3,380.75

09.06.2011

3,400.90

08.06.2011

3,430.08

07.06.2011

3,388.22

06.06.2011

3,353.04

03.06.2011

3,313.12

02.06.2011

3,307.82

01.06.2011

3,342.86

31.05.2011

3,285.94

30.05.2011

3,275.12

27.05.2011

3,282.94

26.05.2011

3,260.77

25.05.2011

3,246.71

24.05.2011

3,284.95

23.05.2011

3,308.79

20.05.2011

3,342.80

19.05.2011

3,340.35

18.05.2011

3,342.50

17.05.2011

3,353.29

16.05.2011

3,385.00

13.05.2011

3,397.81

12.05.2011

3,354.95

11.05.2011

3,372.45

10.05.2011

3,405.11

09.05.2011

3,431.89

06.05.2011

3,437.91

05.05.2011

3,424.47

04.05.2011

3,426.88

03.05.2011

3,422.04

02.05.2011

3,481.33

29.04.2011

3,528.33

28.04.2011

3,558.14

27.04.2011

3,530.61

26.04.2011

3,508.09

22.04.2011

3,519.62

21.04.2011

3,501.96

20.04.2011

3,534.98

19.04.2011

3,493.38

18.04.2011

3,509.41

15.04.2011

3,532.67

14.04.2011

3,552.67

-0.00968
-0.00195
0.00263
-0.0033
-0.00949
0.010413
-0.00063
0.016837
-0.00264
-0.00411
0.002952
-0.00132
0.01223
0.003242
-0.00599
0.00596
0.00858
-0.0122
-0.01038
-0.01191
-0.0016
0.010593
-0.01703
-0.00329
0.002388
-0.00675
-0.00431
0.011778
0.007257
0.010279
-0.00073
0.000644
0.003228
0.009456
0.003784
-0.01261
0.005216
0.009684
0.007865
0.001754
-0.00391
0.000704
-0.00141
0.017326
0.013501
0.008449
-0.00774
-0.00638
0.003287
-0.00502
0.009429
-0.01177
0.004589
0.006628
0.005661

13.04.2011

3,578.17

12.04.2011

3,549.77

11.04.2011

3,584.13

08.04.2011

3,628.25

07.04.2011

3,596.47

06.04.2011

3,569.61

05.04.2011

3,547.63

04.04.2011

3,525.54

01.04.2011

3,553.98

31.03.2011

3,524.27

30.03.2011

3,537.63

29.03.2011

3,539.62

28.03.2011

3,567.15

25.03.2011

3,596.12

24.03.2011

3,500.78

23.03.2011

3,466.73

22.03.2011

3,468.60

21.03.2011

3,441.86

18.03.2011

3,372.01

17.03.2011

3,409.42

16.03.2011

3,393.69

15.03.2011

3,337.51

14.03.2011

3,425.67

11.03.2011

3,428.66

10.03.2011

3,463.92

09.03.2011

3,427.05

08.03.2011

3,410.41

07.03.2011

3,410.05

04.03.2011

3,403.78

03.03.2011

3,400.35

02.03.2011

3,358.13

01.03.2011

3,373.49

28.02.2011

3,412.29

25.02.2011

3,337.51

24.02.2011

3,288.92

23.02.2011

3,344.78

22.02.2011

3,293.18

21.02.2011

3,302.21

18.02.2011

3,327.93

17.02.2011

3,300.94

16.02.2011

3,278.29

15.02.2011

3,296.69

14.02.2011

3,288.83

11.02.2011

3,276.50

10.02.2011

3,308.53

09.02.2011

3,348.77

08.02.2011

3,322.54

07.02.2011

3,327.01

04.02.2011

3,303.52

03.02.2011

3,327.63

02.02.2011

3,360.16

01.02.2011

3,297.08

31.01.2011

3,293.47

28.01.2011

3,336.46

27.01.2011

3,354.92

0.007178
-0.00794
0.00968
0.01231
-0.00876
-0.00747
-0.00616
-0.00623
0.008067
-0.00836
0.003791
0.000563
0.007778
0.008121
-0.02651
-0.00973
0.000539
-0.00771
-0.02029
0.011094
-0.00461
-0.01655
0.026415
0.000873
0.010284
-0.01064
-0.00486
-0.00011
-0.00184
-0.00101
-0.01242
0.004574
0.011501
-0.02191
-0.01456
0.016984
-0.01543
0.002742
0.007789
-0.00811
-0.00686
0.005613
-0.00238
-0.00375
0.009776
0.012163
-0.00783
0.001345
-0.00706
0.007298
0.009776
-0.01877
-0.00109
0.013053
0.005533

26.01.2011

3,356.05

25.01.2011

3,374.10

24.01.2011

3,368.36

21.01.2011

3,359.58

20.01.2011

3,399.29

19.01.2011

3,422.75

18.01.2011

3,405.77

17.01.2011

3,393.23

14.01.2011

3,380.33

13.01.2011

3,385.97

12.01.2011

3,382.19

11.01.2011

3,327.92

10.01.2011

3,291.20

07.01.2011

3,272.99

06.01.2011

3,251.26

05.01.2011

3,180.11

04.01.2011

3,183.12

03.01.2011

3,147.95

=>E(Rm)=

0.000337
0.005378
-0.0017
-0.00261
0.01182
0.006901
-0.00496
-0.00368
-0.0038
0.001668
-0.00112
-0.01605
-0.01103
-0.00553
-0.00664
-0.02188
0.000947
-0.01105

0.00093

.bvb.ro/ListedCompanies/SecurityDetail.aspx?s=B1310A&t=1
.kmarket.ro/actiuni/afisare_actiune.php?simbol=TGN
.bvb.ro/IndicesAndIndicators/indices.aspx?t=1&p=BSE&i=BET&m=&d=12/16/2011

are ca fiind o rata fara risc +prima de risc

Probabilitate de
aparitie(%)
20.00%
60.00%
20.00%

70.00%
VAN

60.00%

47,588,322.66
134,625,803.35
190,256,497.26

PROBABILITATI

Stare
economica
Declin
Stabilitate
Crestere

Declin
8.50%
11.50%
84.00%
2,150,000.00

Stabilitate
10.58%
10.43%
70.48%
3,209,161.91

SCENARII
Declin
Stabilitate
Crestere

2011
21,123,388.36
38,710,879.45
47,633,112.04

CFD
2012
2013
2014
2015
22,981,844.37 24,998,269.14 27,186,090.02 28,494,675.67
44,136,086.34 48,856,840.11 54,077,152.91 58,784,689.02
53,372,461.48 59,800,532.86 66,999,972.80 73,998,145.54

e-3
e-2
e-1
e
e+1
e+2
e+3

/E

128,344,445.99

Crestere
12%
8.80%
65%
1,500,000.00

0.7

45,766,843.67
0.6
-8,956,085
36,810,759
82,577,602
128,344,446
174,111,290
219,878,133
265,644,977

0.0015
0.025
0.16
0.627
0.16
0.025
0.0015

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

0.356593878 <0,6

40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%

Factor
CA
k
%CV in CA
CF

E(VAN) =
=

50.00%

70.00%

PROBABILITATI

60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
47,588,322.66

134,625,803.35

190,256,497.26

VAN
VAN
47,588,322.66
134,625,803.35
190,256,497.26

VAN - E(VAN)
-80,756,123.33
6,281,357.35
61,912,051.27

()2
6,521,551,455,691,960.00
39,455,450,209,542.90
3,833,102,092,493,090.00

()2 ] * P
1,304,310,291,138,390.00
23,673,270,125,725.70
766,620,418,498,618.00
2,094,603,979,762,740.00

DECLIN
Factor
CA
k
%CV in CA
CF

Declin
8.50%
11.50%
84.00%
2,150,000.00

Stabilitate
10.58%
10.43%
70.48%
1,832,725.32

Crestere
12%
8.80%
65%
1,500,000.00

Calculul amortizarii anuale

An
1
2
3
4

Vi

Aa
26,630,000
26,630,000
26,630,000
26,630,000

Element

CA
ChVariabile
ChFixe
EBE
Amortizare
EBIT
Dobanzi
EBT
Impozit pe profit
PN
Acnete
Acnete
CFD
K
1+K
CFD ACTUALIZAT

Calcul VAN
CFD

6,657,500
6,657,500
6,657,500
6,657,500

VramdeAm
19,972,500
13,315,000
6,657,500
0

1
162,679,972.92
136,651,177.25
2,150,000.00

2
176,507,770.61
148,266,527.32
2,150,000.00

3
191,510,931.12
160,869,182.14
2,150,000.00

23,878,795.67
6,657,500.00
17,221,295.67
0.00
17,221,295.67
2,755,407.31
14,465,888.36
0.00
0.00
21,123,388.36

26,091,243.30
6,657,500.00
19,433,743.30
0.00
19,433,743.30
3,109,398.93
16,324,344.37
0.00
0.00
22,981,844.37

28,491,748.98
6,657,500.00
21,834,248.98
0.00
21,834,248.98
3,493,479.84
18,340,769.14
0.00
0.00
24,998,269.14

0.1150
1.1150
18,944,742.92

1.243225
18,485,667.82

1.386196
18,033,720.63

47,588,322.66
I0

CFDn
CFDa

Indicator
VAN
IP
RIR
TRn
TRa

46,630,000.00
-46,630,000.00

Valoare

21,123,388.36
18,944,742.92

22,981,844.37
18,485,667.82

An

47,588,322.66
2.020551633
28.51%
2 ani si 172 zile
2 ani si 352zile

1
2
3
4
5
calcul TRn

Calcul g
1,187,350,293
1,312,997,932
0.105821879

CA2009
CA2010
g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0

Calcul CA2011
376,352,986
1,312,997,932

PN2010
CA2010

I0
CA2011

46,630,000.00
162,679,972.92

Estimare CA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

162,679,972.92
179,895,073.32
198,931,908.00
219,983,256.29
243,262,297.81

Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010

Element
CA2010
Chfixe2010
ChVariabile2010

Valoare
Procent
1,312,997,932.00 25,901,301.00
925,382,226.00

0.0197
0.7048

4
207,789,360.26
174,543,062.62
2,150,000.00

5
225,451,455.88
189,379,222.94
2,150,000.00

VR
9,500,000.00
0.00
0.00

31,096,297.64
6,657,500.00
24,438,797.64
0.00
24,438,797.64
3,910,207.62
20,528,590.02
0.00
0.00
27,186,090.02

33,922,232.94
0.00
33,922,232.94
0.00
33,922,232.94
5,427,557.27
28,494,675.67
0.00
0.00
28,494,675.67

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9,500,000.00
1,520,000.00
7,980,000.00
0.00
0.00
7,980,000.00

1.545608
17,589,248.36

1.723353
16,534,435.84

1.723353 i0
4,630,507.10

5 VR

46,630,000.00

-46,630,000.00

24,998,269.14
18,033,720.63

CFDn
21,123,388.36
22,981,844.37
24,998,269.14
27,186,090.02
28,494,675.67
2 ani

27,186,090.02
17,589,248.36

CFDncum
11,745,653.70
34,727,498.07
59,725,767.21 >I0
86,911,857.23
115,406,532.90
171.41 zile
172.00 zile

28,494,675.67
16,534,435.84

7,980,000.00
4,630,507.10

An
1
2
3
4
5
calcul TRa

CFDa
18,944,742.92
18,485,667.82
18,033,720.63
17,589,248.36
16,534,435.84
2 ani

CFDacum
10,534,218.56
29,019,886.38
47,053,607.01 >I0
64,642,855.36
81,177,291.20
351.54 zile
352.00 zile

CRESTERE
Factor
CA
k
%CV in CA
CF

Declin
8.50%
11.50%
84.00%
2,150,000.00

Stabilitate
10.58%
10.43%
70.48%
1,832,725.32

Crestere
12%
8.80%
65%
1,500,000.00

Calculul amortizarii anuale

An
1
2
3
4

Vi

Aa
6,657,500
6,657,500
6,657,500
6,657,500

VramdeAm
19,972,500
13,315,000
6,657,500
0

CA
ChVariabile
ChFixe
EBE
Amortizare
EBIT
Dobanzi
EBT
Impozit pe profit
PN
Acnete
Acnete
CFD

1
162,679,972.92
105,741,982.40
1,500,000.00
55,437,990.52
6,657,500.00
48,780,490.52
0.00
48,780,490.52
7,804,878.48
40,975,612.04
0.00
0.00
47,633,112.04

2
182,201,569.67
118,431,020.28
1,500,000.00
62,270,549.38
6,657,500.00
55,613,049.38
0.00
55,613,049.38
8,898,087.90
46,714,961.48
0.00
0.00
53,372,461.48

3
204,065,758.03
132,642,742.72
1,500,000.00
69,923,015.31
6,657,500.00
63,265,515.31
0.00
63,265,515.31
10,122,482.45
53,143,032.86
0.00
0.00
59,800,532.86

K
1+K
CFD ACTUALIZAT

0.0880
1.0880
43,780,433.86

1.183744
45,087,841.19

1.287913
46,432,104.45

Calcul VAN

190,256,497.26
1

26,630,000
26,630,000
26,630,000
26,630,000

Element

CFD

I0

CFDn
CFDa

Indicator
VAN
IP
RIR
TRn
TRa

46,630,000.00
-46,630,000.00

Valoare

47,633,112.04
43,780,433.86

53,372,461.48
45,087,841.19

An

190,256,497.26
5.080130758
92.95%
1 an si 132 zile
1 an si 174 zile

1
2
3
4
5
calcul TRn

Calcul g
1,187,350,293
1,312,997,932
0.105821879

CA2009
CA2010
g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0

Calcul CA2011
376,352,986
1,312,997,932

PN2010
CA2010

I0
CA2011

46,630,000.00
162,679,972.92

Estimare CA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

162,679,972.92
179,895,073.32
198,931,908.00
219,983,256.29
243,262,297.81

Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010

Element
CA2010
Chfixe2010
ChVariabile2010

Valoare
Procent
1,312,997,932.00 25,901,301.00
925,382,226.00

4
228,553,648.99
148,559,871.84
1,500,000.00
78,493,777.15
6,657,500.00
71,836,277.15
0.00
71,836,277.15
11,493,804.34
60,342,472.80
0.00
0.00
66,999,972.80

5
255,980,086.87
166,387,056.46
1,500,000.00
88,093,030.40
0.00
88,093,030.40
0.00
88,093,030.40
14,094,884.86
73,998,145.54
0.00
0.00
73,998,145.54

1.401250
47,814,436.83

1.524560
48,537,383.29

0.0197
0.7048

VR
9,500,000.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9,500,000.00
1,520,000.00
7,980,000.00
0.00
0.00
7,980,000.00

1.524560 i0
5,234,297.64

5 VR

46,630,000.00

-46,630,000.00

59,800,532.86
46,432,104.45

CFDn
47,633,112.04
53,372,461.48
59,800,532.86
66,999,972.80
73,998,145.54
1 an

66,999,972.80
47,814,436.83

CFDncum
27,119,317.47
80,491,778.95 >I0
140,292,311.81
207,292,284.61
281,290,430.15
131.60 zile
132.00 zile

73,998,145.54
48,537,383.29

7,980,000.00
5,234,297.64

An
1
2
3
4
5
calcul TRa

CFDa
43,780,433.86
45,087,841.19
46,432,104.45
47,814,436.83
48,537,383.29
1 an

CFDacum
24,925,843.26
70,013,684.45 >I0
116,445,788.91
164,260,225.74
212,797,609.03
173.29 zile
174.00 zile

Analiza sensibilitatii
Factor
CA
k
%CV in CA
CF

Pesimist
8.50%
11.50%
84.00%
2,150,000.00

Baza
10.58%
10.43%
70.48%
3,209,161.91

Optimist
12%
8.80%
65%
1,500,000.00

Pesimist
Baza
127,847,730.26
129,380,535.83
134,625,803.35
50,735,286.08
137,961,705.70

Optimist
139,389,673.55
143,096,753.93
168,616,335.74
140,008,924.84

tabel VAN
Factor
CA
k
%CV in CA
CF
Elasticitati
Elasticitate VAN
E(VAN/CA)
E(VAN/k)
E(VAN/%CV)
E(VAN/CF)
Ierarhizarea

Pesimist-Cert Optimist-Cert media

0.25587832
0.264112163
0.259995241
-0.379884661
-0.402572727
-0.391228694
-3.248023757
-3.248023757
-3.248023757
-0.075078277
-0.075078277
-0.075078277
Elasticitati
E(VAN/%CV)
E(VAN/k)
E(VAN/CA)
E(VAN/CF)

media
3.248023757
0.391228694
0.259995241
0.075078277

CFD=Cfgest-Cresterea economica
CFD=PN+Amortizare+Dobanzi-(ImoBrute+Acnete)

PN=CA-ChVariabile-ChFixe-Impozit

Calculul amortizarii anuale

An
1
2
3
4

Vi

Aa
26,630,000
26,630,000
26,630,000
26,630,000

Element

CA
ChVariabile
ChFixe
EBE
Amortizare
EBIT
Dobanzi
EBT
Impozit pe profit
PN
Acnete
Acnete
CFD
K
1+K
CFD ACTUALIZAT

Calcul VAN

6,657,500
6,657,500
6,657,500
6,657,500

VramdeAm
19,972,500
13,315,000
6,657,500
0

1
162,679,972.92
114,654,525.95
1,500,000.00
46,525,446.97
6,657,500.00
39,867,946.97
0.00
39,867,946.97
6,378,871.52
33,489,075.45
0.00
0.00
40,146,575.45

2
179,895,073.32
126,787,483.31
1,500,000.00
51,607,590.01
6,657,500.00
44,950,090.01
0.00
44,950,090.01
7,192,014.40
37,758,075.60
0.00
0.00
44,415,575.60

3
198,931,908.00
140,204,373.03
1,500,000.00
57,227,534.97
6,657,500.00
50,570,034.97
0.00
50,570,034.97
8,091,205.59
42,478,829.37
0.00
0.00
49,136,329.37

0.1043025
1.104303
36,354,690.36

1.219484
36,421,613.72

1.346679
36,487,032.56

140,008,924.84

Calcul g
CA2009
CA2010
g=(CA1-CA0)/CA0

1,187,350,293
1,312,997,932
0.105821879

Calcul CA2011
376,352,986
1,312,997,932

PN2010
CA2010

I0
CA2011

46,630,000.00
162,679,972.92

Estimare CA
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

162,679,972.92
179,895,073.32
198,931,908.00
219,983,256.29
243,262,297.81

Calcul procent cheltuieli fixe/variabile in 2010

Element
CA2010
Chfixe2010
ChVariabile2010

Valoare
Procent
1,312,997,932.00 25,901,301.00
925,382,226.00

4
219,983,256.29
155,041,063.22
1,500,000.00
63,442,193.07
6,657,500.00
56,784,693.07
0.00
56,784,693.07
9,085,550.89
47,699,142.17
0.00
0.00
54,356,642.17

5
243,262,297.81
171,447,799.85
1,500,000.00
70,314,497.96
0.00
70,314,497.96
0.00
70,314,497.96
11,250,319.67
59,064,178.29
0.00
0.00
59,064,178.29

1.487141
36,551,095.61

1.642254
35,965,316.75

0.0197
0.7048

VR
9,500,000.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
9,500,000.00
1,520,000.00
7,980,000.00
0.00
0.00
7,980,000.00

1.642254 i0
4,859,175.83

46,630,000.00

-46,630,000.00