BP Statistical-Reviewofworldenergy 2011

BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
bp.com/statisticalreview
2010 Energy Rebounds
Kevin Goodwin, Head Refining Analysis

BP 2011
Outline
Introduction Energy and the economy Fuel by fuel Conclusion
BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011
The economy and energy demand

GDP
Annual change, %
10% 6% 2% -2% -6%
Energy
Annual change, %
6%
10-year average
4%
Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil
2%
World OECD Non-OECD 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
0%
-2% 2006 2008 2010

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. GDP growth is expressed in real purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.
Recession and recovery

Annual change, %
16%
Annual change, %
6% GDP Energy
8%
2010
4%
0%
2%
2009
-8%
0%
-16% Trade Industry Energy GDP
-2% 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: includes data from Oxford Economics, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
GDP and energy growth

OECD
Annual change, %
5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP Energy
Non-OECD
Annual change, %
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: includes data from Oxford Economics.
Energy intensity
Energy intensity level
Toe/$Million
300 260 220 180 140 100 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Source: includes data from Oxford Economics.
Change in energy intensity

Toe/$Million per year
World OECD Non-OECD
4 2 0 -2
Effect of increased non-OECD weight
Net change
-4 -6
Change in energy intensity
98-03
03-08
2009
2010
Crude oil prices

$/bbl
150 120 90 60 30 0 2003
Dated Brent Annual averages
12-month moving average volatility, %

50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
Dated Brent
Lowest since March 1995
2005
2007
2009
2011
0% Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Source: includes data from Platts.
Oil consumption and production

Annual change, Mb/d
4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 OPEC production Non-OPEC production Global consumption
Source: includes data from EIA.
Oil consumption growth in 2010

Largest changes
Kb/d -200
China US Russia Brazil Saudi Arabia Singapore India Canada France
Africa Eur. & Eurasia Middle East N. America S&C America
Regional growth by fuel type

Kb/d
-100 0 100 200 300 400
200 400 600 800
Asia Pacific
Gasoil Gasoline
Oil production growth in 2010

Decline
Kb/d -300
Norway UK Brazil Canada Saudi Arabia Colombia Qatar Russia Biofuels US China Nigeria
Changes of more than 100 Kb/d. BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011
Increase
0 100 200 300 400
-200
-100
Non-OPEC FSU OPEC
Oil inventories
OECD commercial oil stocks
Mbbls
2900 05-09 Range 2800 2010 2011
Oil in floating storage

Mbbls
160 Products Crude 120
2700
80
2600
40
2500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Source: includes data from Monthly Oil Data Services OECD/International Energy Agency May 2011 and from EA Gibson.
Cumulative demand and production

Changes since 2005
Mb/d
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 Consumption
Source: includes data from Platts, Baker-Hughes.
Oil rig count and oil price

Index: Jan 2005 = 100
400 OPEC Non-OPEC
NonOECD
Iraq OPEC NGLs Biofuels Non-OPEC OPEC-11 Crude
300
Brent price
200
OECD
100
Production
0 Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Refining capacity and margins

Refining margins
$/bbl
20 BP RMM 10-yr. Av. 15
Refining capacity
Mb/d
48 OECD Non-OECD 46
10
44
42
0 2005 2007 2009 2011

ytd
40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon, Platts.
Crude runs and light-heavy spreads

Crude runs and utilisation
Mb/d
45 OECD World (rhs) 40 Non-OECD 85%
Light-heavy spreads
$/bbl
20 LLS-Maya 10-yr. Av.
Utilisation, %
90%
15
35
80%
10
30
75%
25 1995 2000 2005 2010
70%
0 2005 2007 2009 2011

ytd
Source: includes data from ESAI, Platts.
Natural gas markets

Consumption and production growth
2010 vs 2009, Bcm
250 200 150 100 50 0
Other Asia Mid East Europe FSU N America
Prices
$/Mmbtu
14 12 10 8 6 4 2
UK NBP US Henry Hub Japan LNG Germany
Consumption
Production
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
ytd
Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA.
US natural gas market

Horizontal gas and oil drilling
Number of horizontal rigs
800 Gas Oil 600
35% 40%
Gas in power generation

Gas share in generation from coal and gas
2008 2009 2010
400
30%
200
25%
0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Source: includes data from Smith Bits STATS, EIA.
20% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Global natural gas trade

Global gas trade growth
Annual change, %
30% Pipeline 20% LNG
LNG trade links

Four main importers, av. number of sources
9 11 14
10%
5 8
All exporters, av. number of markets

0%
2005 2009 9 2010
-10% 2009
Source: includes data from Cedigaz, GIIGNL, CISStat.
2010
OECD Europe natural gas market

Prices
$/Mmbtu
15 12 9 6 3 0 1Q07 Av. German Import Price UK NBP 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11
Import growth
Annual change, %
40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 LNG Pipeline
Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA, Monthly Gas Data Service OECD/International Energy Agency May 2011.
Coal consumption and imports

Consumption changes
Mtoe
300 200 100 0 -100 -200 2006 2008 2010 RoW EU US India China
20 16 30
Chinas imports
Mtes
40
Price spread* (rhs)
$/te
RoW Indonesia Australia 32
24
10
0 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11
Source: includes data from IHS CERA, IHS McCloskey. *Spread between Chinas Qinhuangdao and Australias Newcastle coal prices.
Hydro and nuclear power consumption

Hydro
Annual change, %
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Nuclear
Annual change, %
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
10-year average
CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions growth 2010
Contributions to growth
6%
3.0
Non-OECD
CO2 intensity of energy

Tonnes of CO2 per toe
China
4%
2.9
Coal
2.8
2%
Other nonOECD OECD
World
2.7
Gas
2.6
OECD
Oil
By fuel
2.5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0% By region
Renewable energy
Share of primary energy
Percent
2.0%
Renewables growth
25% 20% 15% Renewables in power Biofuels
1.5%
1.0%
10%
0.5%
Renewables in power
5%
0.0% 2001
Biofuels
2004 2007 2010
0% 2001 2004 2007 2010
Renewables in power
Share of power generation
Percent
6% World OECD Non-OECD 4%
Share of power generation in 2010

Percent
0% Denmark Portugal New Zealand 10% 20% 30%
2%
Spain Philippines
0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Germany
Renewables in Germany and Spain

Germany
Share of primary energy, %
6%
Spain
Power generation, TWh
400
4%
300
200
2% Nuclear (1974-1983) Renewables (2001-2010) 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
100
Oil Gas Coal Solar Biomass Wind Hydro Nuclear
Years after reaching 1% share

Source: includes data from MITyC.SEE.
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Renewable power growth

Growth by region
18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China Other non-OECD OECD
1800 1500 1200 900 600 300 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Renewables consumption
Index: 2000=100
Spain China Germany
60 years of energy
World fuel shares
Percent
60%
World GDP, energy and emissions

Index: 1950=100
1000 GDP Energy CO2 700
40%
20%
Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Renew
400
0% 1950
1970
1990
2010
100 1950
1970
1990
2010
Source: includes data from Oxford Economics; Etemad, Luciani, Bairoch, and Toutain, 1991; Maddison, 2009.
60 years
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011

bp.com/statisticalreview
2010 Energy Rebounds
Q & A: Kevin Goodwin

BP 2011
Thank you
60 years BP Statistical Review
BP 2011

BP Statistical-Reviewofworldenergy 2011

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011

2010 Energy Rebounds

Kevin Goodwin, Head Refining Analysis

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

The economy and energy demand

Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil

World OECD Non-OECD 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

-2% 2006 2008 2010

Recession and recovery

-16% Trade Industry Energy GDP

-2% 2007 2008 2009 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

GDP and energy growth

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Change in energy intensity

World OECD Non-OECD

Effect of increased non-OECD weight

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Crude oil prices

12-month moving average volatility, %

Lowest since March 1995

Source: includes data from Platts.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Oil consumption and production

Source: includes data from EIA.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Oil consumption growth in 2010

Regional growth by fuel type

200 400 600 800

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Oil production growth in 2010

Non-OPEC FSU OPEC

Oil in floating storage

2500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Cumulative demand and production

Oil rig count and oil price

Iraq OPEC NGLs Biofuels Non-OPEC OPEC-11 Crude

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Refining capacity and margins

0 2005 2007 2009 2011

40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon, Platts.

Crude runs and light-heavy spreads

25 1995 2000 2005 2010

0 2005 2007 2009 2011

Source: includes data from ESAI, Platts.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Natural gas markets

Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

US natural gas market

Gas in power generation

0 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Global natural gas trade

LNG trade links

All exporters, av. number of markets

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

OECD Europe natural gas market

BP Statistical Review of World Energy BP 2011

Coal consumption and imports