Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
VEHICLE PRODUCTION
China Japan USA Germany Korea BRAZIL India France Spain Canada 13.3 8.2 6.8 4.7 3.3 3.3 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.9
Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 3
PHASE 2:
Uncertainty and restructuring
PHASE 3:
Macroeconomic stability
POSSIBLE LEVERS TO ENSURE FUTURE GROWTH > Fostering of domestic sales to ensure sufficient and satisfying growth for all market participants > Increasing exports to build scale and compete on global level > Improvement of domestic competitiveness to translate sales growth into production growth for established player
2020
Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 4
Brazilian vehicle production [m vehicles] 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1988
1992
ESTABLISHED OEMs
GLOBALIZATION > New players > New products > New rules
2004 2008 2012 2016
1996
2000
For the next decade, Brazil is forecasted to experience a period of attractive domestic growth
Brazilian expected automotive sales growth [m vehicles]
FORECAST BASED ON JD POWER
+3.6% p.a. 4.5 4.5
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
JD Power forecast
Source: JD Power; Anfavea; clippings; Roland Berger
Extrapolation
Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 5
FINDINGS
> Based on regression analysis using automotive household spending power, disposable Disposable 2 = 85.7%) income (R income and nominal GDP, the JD Power forecasts appear in Automotive line in the short to mid term spending but too conservative in the power (R2 = 95.6%) long term Nominal > A sales forecast of signifiGDP (R2 = 91.8%) cantly more than 5 m vehicles JD Power by 2020 seems likely (extrapolation) > This sales forecast may require additional efforts and measures by the industry as well as the Brazilian government 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 6
Joint industry-governmental actions could be undertaken to drive domestic sales growth in Brazil
Measure to drive automotive sales in Brazil
A Reduced cost of ownership to foster individual mobility
Brazil has one of the highest total cost of ownership values in the world tax burden, high financing cost and higher production cost in international comparison are the main reasons
Brazilian total cost of ownership is significantly higher than that of other major markets
Total cost of ownership1) Country comparison of mid-size vehicles [USD '000]
+37.6%
COMMENTS
> Vehicle total cost of ownership in Brazil is at least 37% higher than in other major automotive regions > Key drivers include both the higher production cost, significant tax burdens (both sales tax and annual taxes), insurance, etc. > In order to bring down total cost of ownership to other regions, significant improvements are required along all steps of the value chain
73.1
Consumer costs
35.6
53.1
51.7 22.9
47.2 25.7
37.5 24.4
28.8
21.6 JPN
19.3 USA
17.8 MXN
22.7 CHN
BRA2)
IND
GER
1) The total cost of ownership analysis considers the retail price plus owner car spending during its first 5 years; 2) Maintenance costs were subtracted due to high subjectivity level
Source: Toyota countries web site; TCO analysis; Clippings; Roland Berger Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 8
In many important aspects of the automotive value chain, production in Brazil is higher than Triad markets
Cost comparison automotive production Brazil vs. Europe
The production cost of a vehicle in Brazil are at least equal to those in Europe Brazil is not a low cost country any more
Source: TCO; national associations; clippgings; Roland Berger Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 9
Re-introducing the IPI rebate would include 7.7 m potential buyers, increasing sales by 488,000 p.a. until 2016
Brazilian TCO reduction measures
DEVELOPMENT OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH AUTOMOTIVE BUYING POWER [m households]
Vehicle sales p.a. [m vehicles] Impact of TCO reduction by 10% 4.2 59.0 0.5 7.7 4.7 66.7
3.2
1.0 9.7
49.3
2010
Growth 2010-2016
2016
10
Brazil has one of the oldest vehicle fleets in comparison with major automotive markets
Vehicle fleet age
FLEET AGE COMPARISON (GLOBAL VEHICLE) AVERAGE BRAZILIAN FLEET AGE [YEARS]
30.1
24%
28.6
26.1
40%
241.3
37%
196.3
33%
41.0
32%
100.0
28%
80.0 13%
60%
63%
67%
68%
72%
76%
Russia Brazil
USA
EU-16
Germany
China1)
UK
Japan
2000
2004
2008
1) % of vehicles apt to participate of the 2010 government scrappage program based on pollution emission
Source: Estudo da Frota Sindipeas; national associations; clippings; Roland Berger Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 11
Globally applied scrappage programs had an average adherence rate of 6.5% Similar scenario could be reproduced in Brazil
Scrappage programs figures Country comparison
Fleet renewal adherence rate [%]
10.3 Adherence rate2) 7.0 Adherence rate1) 4.5 Annual sales increase (for 5-years timeframe) 160,000 232,000 367,000 6.5 Total governmental cost (for 5-years timeframe)
Benefits offered by government include BRL 5,000 bonus and subsidized interest rate (4% p.a.) for the new vehicle financing China Japan Ger- Average many
1) Percentage of vehicles sold under scrappage program over old fleet 2) Considers the realization of 2 programs over the period 2010-2015, with the second program having 40% less adherence than the first one
Source: National associations; clippings; Roland Berger Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 12
Measures to increase domestic sales and a focused export strategy could drive yearly production to more than 5m vehicles by 2016
Forecast for national production RB analysis [m units]
0.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 TCO reduction 0.2 Fleet renewal program 5.1
+6.8% p.a.
1
Upside sales potential
2
Increase in export volumes
3
Development of imports
13
Conclusion: Domestic production could be fostered significantly with the introduction of a joint industry-governmental agenda
Future development potential of automotive production in Brazil
Brazilian automotive production [m units]
6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Anfavea; JD Power; Roland Berger
Achieve a joint understanding of the role of the automotive industry in Brazil Support future industry growth with TCO reduction, fleet renewal program, export support, etc. Improve long-term cost competitiveness of the Brazilian industry Define future technology focus, including powertrain mix (gasoline, ethanol, electrical, etc.)
Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 14
B. Implications for Brazilian suppliers Ample growth opportunities at home and abroad
15
Over the last years, Brazilian suppliers showed a very positive sales development
Historic development of Brazilian supplier revenues [USD MM]
+17% p.a. 41,0
3,5
35,1
2,6
4,9 5,4
34,9
2,8 2,8 5,2
+ 21% 0% + 18%
28,5 25,3
1,8 2,1 5,4 3,4 3,1
4,6 4,8
4,7
24,2
+ 21%
10,9
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1) Faturamento com ICMS (Imposto sobre Circulao de Mercadorias e Prestao de Servios) e sem IPI (Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados)
Source: SINDIPEAS; Roland Berger
Compared to global average, Brazilian suppliers performed better in terms of both growth and profitability
Financial performance of Brazilian suppliers compared to global suppliers
REVENUE [INDEX: 2003=100]
200 184 180
8,3
Brazilian suppliers
150 133 119 110 100 150 152
163
135
6,1
5,0
5,7
6,0
5,0
~6 - 7
112
4 Series 3 2 1 0 -1
~3 - 4
50
-2
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10e
10e
17
In order to ensure long-term growth and competitiveness, four major lines of actions exist
Lines of actions for Brazilian automotive suppliers
1
Capture domestic growth by aligning positioning and product portfolio Develop local R&D capabilities to ensure global technological competitiveness Improve own cost position to defend domestic market share and grow globally Identify suitable growth opportunities abroad (organic and via acquisitions/partnerships)
18
Significant growth potential between 10 and 21bn USD can be captured by autoparts suppliers in Brazil
Future business potential for automotive suppliers in Brazil [bn USD]
21.3 Delta + 11.5 48.5
KEY DRIVERS > Domestic vehicle production volume > Global automotive mega-trends with impact on Brazil Increasing fuel efficiency and CO2 reduction Increasing comfort and convenience requirements Increasing safety requirements Affordability > Annual savings and price-downs
Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 19
9.8
37.0
27.2
Most growth exists in Powertrain, Exterior and Interior applications for Volume and Low-end vehicles
Expected supplier growth by domain and segment [m USD]
Powertrain
1,3 2,7 2,8 6,0 5,7
2,7 6,6
0,0
Premium
Chassis
Volume
Exterior
Low-end Interior
0,2 0,4 2,8 5,5 0,0 1,8
10,3
Low-cost
Infotainment
Conservative growth
Source: Roland Berger market model
Aggressive growth
Seminrio AutoData Compras Automotivas 2010.pptx 20
( ) # #
3,1%
Localization & local sourcing Local product adaptation Offshoring of engineering services Local R&D hub with platform/ module development Research collaboration
2,2% 1,8%
0,5%
CV OEMs in Brazil
Brazilian suppliers
Global suppliers
21
Brazilian labor costs are lower than in developed countries, but are still high when compared to other developing countries
Hourly compensation costs of production workers in manufacturing 2007 [USD]
x5.3
COMMENTS
> Hourly compensation costs includes direct payments as well as social insurance expenditures and labor taxes > Labor cost within the automotive industry are often higher, but the difference between countries remains similar > In recent years, labor cost in Brazil have shown a rapid annual growth percentage-wise as high as in China or India, but from a higher base level
37.66
5.96 2.92 GER US JPN KOR BRA MXN 1.34 CHN 1.10 IND
22
Brazilian suppliers have achieved significant market share in many products Further growth opportunities exist abroad
Global growth potential for Brazilian suppliers
Market share of local (Brazilian) suppliers selected products
Brake pads and linings Chassis systems Shock absorbers Insulation systems Mirrors Steel wheels Aluminum wheels etc. 50% 70% 65% 65% 65% 60% 62% Infotainment Interior Exterior Chassis Powertrain 584 17 126 146
78
927 22
190
221
115
1 2
Brazil has tremendous growth potential A joint industry governmental agenda is needed to maximize this growth potential Brazilian suppliers need to improve their technological and cost position to compete long-term on a global level Act now The only thing that should not be done is to do nothing!
24
25