The Model of Deforestation in Indonesia

Armi Susandi Studies Program of Meteorology Department of Geophysics and Meteorology Institut Teknologi Bandung Jl. Ganesa no. 10 Bandung Phone:+62-22-2500494 Fax.:+62-22-2534139 email: armi@geoph.itb.ac.id

Abstract

In this study, we expressed the model of deforestation as a function of the direct causes, each of these expressed as a function of the indirect causes. The population and GDP growth used as indirect causes of deforestation. In this model, we assume that deforestation is caused by roundwood consumption, forest-product export, conversion to cropland, and forest fire. We calculate the elasticity of forest fire deforestation with respect to the population based on forest fire data between 1991 and 2000. Finally, we analyze emissions of carbon dioxide as consequent of deforestation rate in Indonesian forest.

One Day International Seminar on INSIDE, 6 April 2005, Jakarta - Indonesia

1. Introduction Indonesia has some 10 percent of the worlds remaining tropical forest, which has a total forest area of more than 144 million ha. Indonesia has already lost an approximate 72 percent of its original limit forest, and half of what remains is currently endangered (World Bank, 2000). Around 21 percent of Indonesias forests are protected. Deforestation in Indonesia has been increasing, and the country had a rate of about 1 percent annual forest loss by the mid1990s. Illegal logging, corruption, and lack of law enforcement are tremendous problems.

In addition, most of the fires that damaged vast areas of the Indonesian tropical forest in 1997 were purposely and illegally set by plantation companies to clear natural forests and subsistence agricultural areas that had been used for generations by local communities. Once the forests are burned, the government allocates the burned areas to corporations which establish vast monocultures of exotic species for pulpwood or palm oil. Thus, diverse natural forests and fallows are destroyed permanently, disturbing wildlife populations and alienating local people from their inherited lands.

Estimates of deforestation range from 1.3 million ha to 2 million ha per year (World Bank, 2000). Apportionment of the deforestation rate among proximate causes is even less precise. Logging is thought to cause deforestation not through clear cutting, but by facilitating entry and clearing by shifting cultivators (Barbier et al.1994). Much deforestation is associated with the settlement of official transmigration sites, and with the establishment of large plantations for palm oil or pulpwood. Much of the remainder is attributed to shifting cultivators, often presumed to be subsistence-oriented.

Shifting cultivation in Indonesia, however, encompasses more than just subsistence or food crops. There are shifting cultivation systems which include both staple crops and exportoriented tree products. For instance, in some low-population density areas, coffee is grown by shifting cultivators, who abandon plots after six or seven years due to declining yields. (Smith and Bouvier, 1993).

In this paper, we develop the model of deforestation in Indonesia. We use population and economic growth as the driving forces of deforestation.

2. Model of deforestation

Causes of tropical deforestation have been classified into two levels. The first-level (or direct) causes are grouped into two classes, i.e., pressure for forest products (for consumption and exports) and pressure on forest land alternative (cropland) land uses. The second-level (or indirect) causes of deforestation are population, gross domestic product, external debt and government policies. The rate of deforestation is expressed as a function of the direct causes; each of these has previously been expressed as a function of the indirect causes. Kant and Redantzs (1997) model assume that deforestation is caused by roundwood consumption, export of forest products, conversion to cropland, and conversion to pasture land. We have modified an econometric model of tropical deforestation and apply them to Indonesian deforestation case. See Kants and Redantz (1997) for a detail description.

Deforestation from cropland conversion (including transmigration and infrastructure development) at 838,000 ha per year during 1982 1990 as reported by ALGAS (1997). We extrapolate this to increase to 938,560 ha per year in 2000, assuming 1.2% annual increase during 1990 2000 (FWI/GFW, 2002). Boer et al., 1998 identified agriculture development as the main causes of deforestation in Indonesia. Roundwood consumption and forest product export are also the common causes of deforestation after agriculture development. Deforestation rate due to round wood consumption was 377,000 ha per year during 1982 1990 (ALGAS, 1997). Later, deforestation from forest product export was around 705,000 ha per year. In addition, we substituted conversion to pasture land as an direct cause of deforestation with forest fire, which occurs mostly every year in Indonesia.

Forest fires have caused much damage to economy and environment. The causes of fires are largely due to changes in land use, such shifting cultivation and crop land conversion (START, 2000). Most fires are mainly in agricultural lands rather than in forest lands (KMNLH and UNDP, 1998). Based on the forest fire data from 1982-1990, the average area affected by forest fire was about 100,000 ha per year (Bappenas, 1992). In the El-Nio years of 1991, 1994 and 1997, the forest area burnt amounted to 119,000, 162,000, and 265,000 ha, respectively (Dirjen PHPA, 1997). In 1998, the largest forest fire ever in the world burnt 514,000 ha (Dirjen PHPA, 1999). DGFPNC (2003) reports that the extent of forest fire was 44,090, 3,016, 14,330, and 35,497 ha for the years of 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002,

respectively. Based on the percentage with and without El-Nio years during 1991-2000, the average area affected by forest fire was about 35,781 ha per year.

We have chosen the first-level (direct) causes of deforestation in Indonesia as roundwood consumption, export of forest products, change in cropland and forest fire. Understanding the linkages between the first-level (direct) causes and the second-level (indirect) ones is also important. We calculated the elasticity (e) of deforestation (D) with respect to the population (P) as e = (D / D ) / (P / P ) , and GDP growth ( YG ) as e = (D / D ) / (YG / YG ) for Indonesia, based on deforestation data between 1990 and 2000, as suggestion by Kant. This paper expands the work of Susandi and Tol (2004) in two ways. Firstly, we make forest fire deforestation with respect to the population. In the original model (Susandi and Tol, 2004), we assume that forest fire deforestation falls gradually over time by decade in the years after 2000, because of an increasing effort in forest fire prevention. Secondly, we simulate the indirect causes of deforestation (population, gross domestic product) with three different trajectories to reflect future demographic (Lutz, 1997; UN, 1998) and socio economic development uncertainty.

Total deforestation model is described below:

Dt = Dtroundwood + Dtexp ort + Dtcropland + Dt fire

(1)

with
D
roundwood t

P = t P t 1

0.6509

Dtroundwood 1
0.0668

(2)

exp ort t

YW = tW 1 Y t 1

Dtexp ort 1
0.6171

(3)

cropland t

Y = t 1 Y t 1

0.0434

Dtcropland 1

(4)

fire t

P = t P t 1

Dtfire 1

(5)

where Dt is total deforestation in year t 4

Dtroundwood Dtexp ort Dtcropland Dt fire

is deforestation of round wood consumption in year t is deforestation of forest products export in year t is deforestation of cropland in year t is deforestation of forest fire in year t is the total population of Indonesia in year t is the total GDP of the rest of the world in year t is the GDP of Indonesia in year t

Pt
YtW

Yt

Population and economic growth are the driving forces of deforestation. We use historical and projected population data from UN (2003). These data are an expressed of population data projection from 2000 to 2050 with three different variants: low, medium, and high. The GDP data for Indonesia are taken from the AIM model (Morita and Lee, 1999). We extrapolate the population and GDP data projection for the next year to 2100 based on the growth rate of the previously data. Table 1 shows total growth between 2000 and 2100 for the four scenarios. These scenarios are follow the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) as wrote on IPCC, 2000 and we selected four SRES scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2).

Table 1. Total growth of population and GDP between 2000 and 2100 (resume for Indonesia)

Set Population growth (% per year) GDP growth (% per year) Per capita GDP growth (% per year)

A1B 0.14 4.08 3.93

A2 0.87 3.03 2.15

B1 0.14 3.63 3.48

B2 0.59 3.07 2.46

3. Results

In the year 2000, Indonesian deforestation of forest fire was 35,497 ha per year. In our model, the results of deforestation of forest fire are given in Figure 1. In the A1B and the B1 scenarios, population lead first to increasing forest fire deforestation, rising from 35,497 ha

37,000

A1B
A2 B1 B2

36,500

ha/year

36,000

35,500

35,000

34,500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Year 2070 2080 2090 2100

Figure 1. Deforestation of forest fire

per year in 2000 to 35,900 ha per year in 2050, then decreasing gradually to 35,700 ha per year in 2100. These scenarios are based on a variant the low population projection. The highest population trajectory in Indonesia will drive forest fire deforestation to 36,900 ha per year in 2100. For the median population projections, in the B2 scenario, Indonesian forest fire deforestation increases to 36,400 ha per year in 2100 (Figure 1).

We assume that the B2 scenario is as reference scenario with the medium population and economy development projection. In Figure 2, cropland is the main contributor of the total rate of deforestation at 45% of total deforestation in 2000; this decreases to 39% of total deforestation, corresponding to about 857,200 ha per year in 2100. Forest product export is the second contributor to deforestation, with 34% of total deforestation in 2000, slightly decreases to 32% of total deforestation in 2100. Deforestation of roundwood consumption increase gradually from 422,240 ha per year (20% of total deforestation) in 2000 to 28% of total deforestation in 2100 (Figure 2). It is estimated that deforestation due to forest fire contributes was minor (Dick 1991; FAO and MoF 1990; Angelsen and Resosudarmo 1999).

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year
roundwood consumption
forest product export
cropland change
forest fire

Figure 2. Percentage of deforestation for reference scenario (B2 scenario)

3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 ha/year 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year

A1B A2 B1 B2/Ref

Figure 3. Total deforestation with various scenarios

Figure 3 shows that the rate of deforestation with various scenarios. In the A1B and the B1 scenarios, the rate of deforestation is the same except the rate of cropland deforestation. In the A1B scenario, the rate of cropland deforestation is higher than in the B1 scenario. Even the population growth in the A2 scenario is highest but economy development is the lowest growth as driven to cropland deforestation, so, the rate of deforestation is slightly decrease in 7

million tonnes of C
500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 2000 2020 2040 Year 2060 2080 2100
B2/Ref Diff. A1B Diff. A2 Diff. B1

50 40 30 20 10 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60

Figure 4. Carbon emission from deforestation

the first half of century, later increases to the end of century as implication of population development (Figure 3). In the B2 scenario (reference scenario), deforestation increases slightly to the first half of century and decreases slightly to the end of century, but still higher than in the A1B and B2 scenarios (Figure 3). Figure 4 shows the corresponding emissions of carbon dioxide (left-hand axis) and difference of carbon emission from the A1B, A2, and B2 scenarios compare to the B2 scenario (right-hand axis).

4. Conclusions

In this paper, we developed the model of deforestation in Indonesia as implication of future demographic and socio-economic development. The projection of deforestation levels for the year 2000 to the year 2100 are based on four SRES scenarios A1B, A2, B1 and B2 (differing with respect to population and GDP growth).

Indirect cause of forest fire relate to population would highest in the A2 scenario with the average Indonesian population growth rate over 100 years is 0.87% per year. Our scenario projections indicate that economic development would lead the main contributor of cropland deforestation higher than other causes of deforestation. In the A1B scenario, the rate of deforestation would higher than other scenarios first, later decrease gradually. 8

Emissions of carbon dioxide from deforestation in Indonesia has also high and continue unabated, making the country a potentially big supplier of projects under CDM (clean development mechanism). Indonesia should be consider on those by slowing deforestation activities.

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