DeHavilland EU’s

Predictive Trends Report

2012
DeHavilland EU’s
Predictive Trends Report
2012

Contents
Introduction 3

Executive Summary 4

Survey Analysis
Economic Outlook
Question One: ‘In light of the Eurozone crisis, how do you feel about the European
economic outlook for 2012?’ 5

Question Two: ‘In your opinion, what’s the one thing that the EU Commission
should do to help resolve the economic crisis in the Eurozone?’ 8

Question Three: ‘Which areas of EU policy do you feel will face the biggest
challenges in 2012? Select up to three.’ 10

Question Four: ‘In order to further the aims of your organisation, what would
you say is the single biggest change the EU could make in 2012?’ 13

Question Five: ‘Do you agree with the introduction of an EU Financial

Transaction Tax?’ 15

European Citizens’ Initiative

Question Six: ‘With the European Citizens’ Initiative (ECI) in place for 2012,
are you planning to make use of it?’ 17

External Relations
Question Seven: ‘The European External Action Service – one year on, do you
think that this year it will be...?’ 19

Question Eight: ‘With whom should the EU seek to create better ties?
Select up to 3.’ 21

The Role of the EU and its Institutions

Question Nine: ‘The European Parliament should play a bigger role in
solving the economic crisis.’ 24

Question Ten: ‘Overall do you expect that the relevance of the EU in 2012 will...?’ 26

Conclusion 28

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Introduction
In the run up to our national Predictive Trends Report 2011 which sought to investigate
the changing concerns of industry professionals in the UK context, DeHavilland EU’s
Predictive Trends Report 2012 looks at issues raised by the state of the European Union,
with specific focus on the current economic downturn, Europe’s place in the global
marketplace, and the perceived effectiveness of new EU legislation and policy.

The report is based on a survey circulated among approximately four thousand EU

industry professionals in February and March 2012. All data presented has been
categorized into five groups: charitable organizations; consultancy groups; corporations;
membership organizations and trade unions; and public sector organisations. All
responses presented in the survey report have been anonymised.

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Executive Summary
De Havilland EU’s Predictive Trends Survey 2012 found that:
l People are generally slightly pessimistic about the overall outlook for the European
economy in 2012. However, a significant minority do have an optimistic outlook.
l Suggestions on how to help fix the Eurozone crisis vary, but in general recommend a
focus on stability and increasing unity among the Member States; several responses
suggested allowing weaker Member States to leave the Euro in order to protect the
EU as a whole.
l Economic governance was widely regarded to be the biggest challenge facing the
EU in 2012.
l More than half of people surveyed stated that the biggest thing the EU could do to help
their organization prosper in 2012 would be to stabilize the overall economy in Europe.
l A majority of people across all groups surveyed are in favour of the introduction of a
European Financial Transaction Tax, however, reactions to the European Citizens’
Initiative and the European External Action Service are significantly less enthusiastic.
l A majority of people believe that the EU should focus its attention on building stronger
links with China, Russia and India, with the USA and South America near the bottom of
the list.
l The majority of people believe that the EU should play a larger role in fixing the current
Eurozone economic crisis.
l Generally, people believe that the EU will grow in relevance over the coming year.

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Survey Analysis

Question 1:
‘In light of the Eurozone crisis, how do
you feel about the European economic
outlook for 2012?’
Responses to the question:
‘In light of the Eurozone
crisis, how do you feel about
the European economic
outlook for 2012?’

With the latest OECD Interim Economic Forecast1 predicting a “fragile” outlook for the EU,
contrasting with robust growth in the United States and Canada for the first half of 2012, it
is unsurprising that moral remains low in Europe. The Eurozone debt crisis is still looming,
with borrowing costs for countries such as Spain and Italy spiralling compared to
Germany’s, and this fact is shown clearly in the survey results.

Almost four out of ten respondents (39%) stated that they were pessimistic about the
European economic outlook as a whole, compared to only one in four (25%) who said
they were either optimistic or very optimistic for the next twelve months. However, a
significant number of respondents (36%) stated that they were neither more nor less
optimistic about Europe’s economic future in the light of the Eurozone crisis. This reflects
a global uncertainty regarding the future of the EU economy as a whole. In spite of an
anticipated world economic growth of 3.5%2, the IMF singled out the Eurozone as a
potential source of concerns.

1 See OECD Interim Economic Outlook Assessment, 29 March 2012

2 See IMF World Economic Outlook, 18 April 2012

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Responses to the question:

‘In light of the Eurozone
crisis, how do you feel about
the European economic
outlook for 2012?’ collected
by optimistic/pessimistic
separated by sector.

Although there is a rough correlation to the overall totals, charitable groups and
corporations were much more likely than the average to select the middle-ground option,
answering that they were neither more or less optimistic about the European economy in
2012. As shown in the previous chart, responses from all groups tended to cluster around
the mid-point, with a slight pessimistic skew; despite this, no respondent from any group
answered that they were very pessimistic about the future of Europe’s economy. The
European Union remains an important trading partner for China and the United States in
particular, with Germany exports boosting the overall EU trade volumes3 with third
countries thanks to a competitive industry.

3 See Eurostats Full Table with Trade Flows per country, 16 April 2012.

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Responses to the question:

‘In light of the Eurozone
crisis, how do you feel about
the European economic Membership
Charity Corporate Organisation Total
outlook for 2012?’ collected
Consultancy Public
by optimistic/pessimistic Sector
separated by sector.

Applying a weighted score of 1 and 2 for ‘optimistic’ and ‘very optimistic’, and a score of -1
and -2 for ‘pessimistic’ and ‘very pessimistic’ respectively (with ‘neither less nor more
pessimistic’ assigned a value of zero), it can be seen that there is a slight trend towards
pessimism overall – out of a maximum score of -2, the total average is just -0.08.
Charitable organisations, membership organisations and corporations are more likely
than the average to be pessimistic about the European economic outlook in 2012. On the
occasion of a debate on how to overcome the Euro crisis in Strasbourg European
Parliament’s plenary session, the leader of the Liberal ALDE Group, Guy Verhofstadt
MEP, warned “the crisis is not over because we have only been addressing the
symptoms”. The sluggish growth prospects combined with an acute debt crisis led a
number of organisations to call for further reforms to create conditions for growths while
cutting public spending.

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Question 2:
‘In your opinion, what’s the one thing
that the EU Commission should do to
help resolve the economic crisis in the
Eurozone?’
When asked an open question regarding the most effective solution to the Eurozone
crisis, results were (as might be expected) mixed.

In several responses, certain countries were singled out for criticism. Germany received
several comments, noting that they should ‘clearly tell Germany to start paying’, ‘force
Germany to agree to stability bonds’ and ‘resist Germany being always top-dog’.
The strong stance of German Chancellor Merkel on the importance of maintaining
the independent role of the European Central Bank or the willingness to include a
“debt brake” in the Fiscal Treaty signed last December has been mitigated by recent
concessions. As the crisis has spread from Ireland to Portugal, Greece and now Italy
and Spain, Germany demonstrated its ability to find a consensus with its European
partners. Eurozone leaders at the end of March reached a key agreement on boosting
the European Finance Stability Facility (EFSF) firewall, which is to be merged with the
permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in July 20124.

However, the economically weaker members of the EU were also mentioned: there
were calls to ‘allow some countries to leave the Eurozone so they can devalue and kick
start their economies’, ‘remove Greece from [the] Eurozone’, and ‘start openly working
on a plan to help Greece, Portugal and Spain have a managed exit from the Euro.’ The
recent rise in the borrowing costs for Spain with 10-year bonds sold at a yield exceeding
6%5 will contribute to increased political pressures on Europe to find sustainable and
long-term solutions.

In contrast, there were also calls to ensure that the markets themselves make a concerted
effort to appear strong to the world at large: for example, ‘to make it clear to states outside
the union that the Euro is here to stay and will be defended without reservation’, as well
as a significant number of responses calling for investment in the active growth and
increased stability of the Euro as a currency suitable for trade in the global marketplace.
In response to growing criticism against the EU for failing to formulate concrete policy
responses to the economic crisis, the European Commission released a new employment
package in a Communication “Towards a Job Rich Economy” on 18 April 2012. With
24 million unemployed people6 in the Union – 10% of the work force – the situation
between individual countries still varies wildly from Germany as the “motor of Europe”
to debt-ridden countries in the Mediterranean.

4 See the Final Statement of the Eurogroup, 30 March 2012

5 Financial Times, “Spain borrowing costs rise above 6%”, 16 April 2012
6 See Eurostat Figures, 2 April 2012

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In this context,a large number of respondents called for greater unity among the EU
member states, allowing for decreased bureaucracy and a streamlining of efforts to get
the economy back on track.

Finally, despite the fact that the EU generally comes under a lot of criticism in the media
across Europe and from national Governments, the vast majority of suggestions received
were logical, pro-Europe, and forward-thinking: while one respondent stated that there
was ‘no silver bullet’ and another stated that the best solution would be for the EU to
dissolve itself, in general terms the respondents were in favour of fixing the flaws in the
current system, and did not consider the current issues to be entirely unworkable: despite
a general pessimism about the European economic outlook in 2012, there is still plainly
the potential for change and improvement in the future.

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Question 3:
‘Which areas of EU policy do you
feel will face the biggest challenges in
2012? Select up to three.’

Responses to the question:

‘Which areas of EU policy do
you feel will face the biggest
challenges in 2012? Select up
to three.’
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Perhaps understandably, given the economic crisis currently sweeping Europe from
localised Eurozone concerns to national bailouts, economic governance is widely
believed to be one of the areas of EU policy that will face the biggest challenges in 2012;
78% of respondents – almost four out of five – selected it as among their top three
answers. In a distant second place, with a selection by only 42% of respondents, was
energy, demonstrating that even in dark economic times, long-term concerns about
environmental impacts and the future of energy dependence on an increasingly unstable
Middle East and an unpredictable Russia are very much at the forefront of respondents’
minds. The importance of energy as a source of potential growth is seen as essential for
the transition to a low-carbon economy, explaining why energy features high on the list of
the respondents’ priorities. “Energy as part of the solution” was also the core of the
message of the Greek government and the European Commission, announcing in early
April 2012 the launch of the so called “Helyos Project” to boost revenues from solar
energy in the country. Commission’s President Barroso stressed on that occasion:
“Renewables offer major opportunities in terms of industrial innovation and job creation
and can contribute to creating new competitive industrial sectors in Europe, with
significant export potential for a growing world market.” 7

7 Speech delivered by José Manual Barroso, President of the European Commission, 3 April 2012. Athens

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The issues of least concern were food labelling and food safety, health and
pharmaceuticals, and transport, despite the latter two generally being of great concern
when viewed domestically. The impact of new animal welfare laws, such as Council
Directive 1999/74/EC on laying hens prohibiting the rearing of hens in ‘battery cages’
which entered into force on 1st January 2012, do however regularly make the headlines
and are the subject of many parliamentary questions. Overall, the interest of stakeholders
usually remain directed by the EU’s own political agenda – explaining why these issues
are now viewed as less pressing, given the recent conclusion of the food information to
consumers reform8, the pharmaceutical package9 and the Animal Welfare Strategy10.

Responses to the question:

‘Which areas of EU policy do
you feel will face the biggest
challenges in 2012? Select up
to three.’ separated by sector.
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Generally speaking, the group selections follow the general trends, with a few notable
exceptions. Corporate institutions are far more concerned by agriculture than the
average, but the biggest variance comes with the European External Action Service
(EEAS); while only 36% of respondents overall selected it as among their three answers,
two thirds of charitable organisations and nearly nine out of ten public sector groups
(88%) surveyed gave it as a response. This anomaly might be explained by the fact that
the EEAS is one of the key innovations included in the Lisbon Treaty, which entered into
force in 2009. After lengthy consultations between the diplomatic services of the Member
States and the different EU institutions, the EEAS was launched on 1st December 2011.

8 Regulation (EU) No 1169/20111 on food information to consumers was published in the Official Journal of the European Union on 22
November 2011 and most provisions will enter into force in 2014.
9 The Pharmaceutical Package including a set of different proposals was launched in 2008 to improve information to patients, improve
the internal market and combat against falsified medicines. It was completed in 2011.
10 The Animal Welfare Strategy for 2012–2015 was released in February 2012 following extensive consultations with stakeholders
across Europe.

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Responses to the question: % Charity Consultancy Corporate Membership Public Sector Total
‘Which areas of EU policy do Organisation/
you feel will face the biggest Trade Union
challenges in 2012? Select up Agriculture 0% 8% 60% 38% 13% 22%
to three.’ separated by sector.
Culture & Education 0% 8% 0% 13% 0% 6%

Economic Governance 100% 83% 80% 63% 75% 78%

Energy 33% 50% 40% 38% 38% 42%

European External 67% 17% 20% 13% 88% 36%

Action Service

Food Labelling & 0% 0% 0% 13% 0% 3%

Food Safety

Health & Pharmaceuticals 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 3%

Internal Market 0% 50% 20% 25% 38% 33%

International Development 33% 0% 20% 13% 13% 11%

Justice and Home Affairs 67% 17% 40% 25% 13% 25%

Media & 0% 8% 0% 25% 13% 11%

Telecommunications

Transport 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 3%

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Question 4:
‘In order to further the aims of your
organisation, what would you say is the
single biggest change the EU could make
in 2012?’
Responses to the question:
‘In order to further the aims
of your organisation, what
would you say is the single
biggest change the EU could
make in 2012?’

As it has been highlighted by other questions, one of the biggest concerns facing the
EU at the moment is the issue of bringing balance back to the region in the wake of the
Eurozone crisis. As such, it should come as no surprise that the notion of restoring stability
to the economy as a whole is considered of primary importance to many people with
regards to the success of their organisations in 2012; 56% of respondents selected it as
their answer, outstripping the second place options (increased funding and decreased
bureaucracy) by a factor of almost four votes to one. It reflects an overall pessimistic
outlook as shown by the latest Flash Eurobarometer on the social impact of the crisis
published in April 2012, which indicated that 80% of Europeans think poverty has
increased in their own country over the past 12 months11. Despite a general consensus
on the necessity to alleviate the consequences of the financial crisis to prevent economic
recession, the exact scope and form of the new structures of economic governance
remain to be defined.

11 See the Flash Eurobarometer on the social impact of the crisis, Wave 6, 18 April 2012,

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Responses to the question:

‘In order to further the aims
of your organisation, what
would you say is the single
biggest change the EU could
make in 2012?’ separated
by sector.

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Question 5:
‘Do you agree with the introduction of an
EU Financial Transaction Tax?’
Responses to the question:
‘Do you agree with the
introduction of an EU
Financial Transaction Tax?’

On 28 September 2011, the European Commission released a new proposal for

introducing a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT)12 to ensure that the financial services sector
makes a fair contribution to public spending. Overall, there was a strong favourable
response to the introduction of a Financial Transaction Tax in the EU, with almost six out
of ten – 58% – of respondents stating that they agreed with the idea, compared to 17%
who were opposed. While the City of London is warning against a possible capital
flight and would prefer a generalisation of the UK system of stamp duty, the European
Commission argues that if used for the EU own resources, it could contribute to
reduce Member States contributions to the EU budget by 50%13. However, one in four
respondents had no strong feelings on the subject, stating that they neither agreed
nor disagreed with the idea.

12 See the Proposal for a Council Directive on a financial transaction tax and amending Directive 2008/7/EC, COM(2011)594, 28
September 2011.
13 See the Commission’s estimates for GNI reductions, Press Release, 23 March 2012.

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Responses to the question:

‘Do you agree with the
introduction of an EU
Financial Transaction Tax?’
separated by sector.

Responses to the question:

‘Do you agree with the
introduction of an EU
Financial Transaction Tax?’
separated by sector.

When taken as a weighted average, it can be seen that every group surveyed is in favour
of the implementation of a Financial Transactions Tax in the EU, with charitable groups
being by far the most likely to agree with the plan; on average, respondents from
charitable groups voted somewhere between ‘slightly agree’ and ‘strongly agree’ on the
topic. Consultancy groups and membership organisations, on the other hand, were less
likely than average to be in favour of the plan, but overall were still in agreement with the
idea. Indeed, despite consensus over the need to achieve a fairer distribution of tax
burdens across different sectors, including financial services, divisions among Member
States over the scope and method of the FTT is likely to slow down negotiations between
national Governments and the European Parliament, with the latter expected to hold its
first reading before the summer.

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Question 6:
‘With the European Citizens’ Initiative
(ECI) in place for 2012, are you planning
to make use of it?’

Responses to the question:

‘With the European Citizens’
Initiative (ECI) in place for
2012, are you planning to
make use of it?’

Responses to the question:

‘With the European Citizens’
Initiative (ECI) in place for
2012, are you planning to
make use of it?’ separated
by sector.

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The ECI has been one of the most notable pieces of legislation to emerge from the recent
Treaty of Lisbon which entered into force in December 2009. Although it is designed to
make the EU more accessible to citizens14, the results of this survey indicate that is not
likely to have a major impact on the majority of people. One in six respondents – 17% –
state that they are currently aware of the ECI, and an even greater number of respondents
(42%) have not yet made up their minds. Even out of those respondents who were both
aware of the purpose of the ECI and who had made a decision on whether or not to use it,
people answering no outnumbered people answering yes by a margin of two to one,
leaving just 14% of respondents who feel sure that they plan to actively engage with the
European Citizens’ Initiative in the future. The fact that the ECI Regulation (EC) No.
211/201115 entered into force on 1st April 2012 paved the way for the use of this new
participatory democracy tool. However, reactions from EU stakeholders have been mixed
with rising concerns over the lack of real input for citizens. The new ECI may well provide
citizens and interest groups with new possibilities to influence the agenda of the European
Commission, but the European Network of National Civil Society Associations reported
onerous administrative costs as a likely barrier to the use of ECIs. The organisation was
also wary of the “excessive online security constraints” imposed by the Commission.16

14 ‘Under our plans, members of the public could invite the European commission to put forward legislative proposals – in areas where
the commission has the power to do so – providing at least 1 million citizens from at least one third of EU member states sign the
initiative (nine countries, as things stand).’ Šefcovic, M. (2010, March 31). Bringing Europe closer to its citizens. Retrieved March 21,
2012. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/mar/31/european-citizens-initiative-europe
15 See Regulation (EC) No. 211/2011 on the Citizen’s Initiative, 16 February 2011
16 See ENNA, Press Release, 3 April 2012,

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Question 7:
‘The European External Action Service
– one year on, do you think that this year
it will be...?’

Responses to the question:

‘The European External
Action Service – one year on,
do you think that this year it
will be...?’

When asked about their expectations for the EEAS in 2012, respondents were asked to
place their answer into one of three categories: ‘Mostly effective: An efficient tool to
promote the interests of the European Union abroad’; ‘Somewhat effective: The first step
towards a full diplomatic representation of the Union around the world’; or ‘Not very
effective: An unnecessary duplication of existing national diplomatic resources’. At a
hearing organised by the AFCO Committee in March, many MEPs expressed their
disappointment over the lack of EEAS leadership. A number of MEPs, such as Annemie
Neyets-Uytterbroeck MEP (ALDE) or Ulrike Lunacek MEP (EFA/Greens) acknowledged
however that the EEAS was a success in spite of obstacles. “The EEAS is now the the 6th
biggest service for foreign affairs in the world”.

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Responses to the question:

‘The European External
Action Service – one year
on, do you think that this
year it will be...?’ separated
by sector.

Responses tended to be clustered around the total averages, with few outliers. Charitable
groups were (along with membership organisations) more likely to expect that the EEAS
would be somewhat effective, but ultimately there is little significant variation between the
groups surveyed.

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Question 8:
‘With whom should the EU seek to create
better ties? Select up to 3.’

Responses to the question:

‘With whom should the EU
seek to create better ties?
Select up to 3.’

Understandably, given China’s ever-increasing dominance on the global stage, a majority

of respondents selected it as among their top three options; 58% of people asked believe
that the EU should seek to build stronger ties in the region. China has been gaining in
importance in trade relations with the country, having become the EU’s second trading
partner after the United States. From 2006 to 2010, EU trade with China grew by 11.2%
and the country is expected to become its foremost trading partner in the next few years17.
Beyond economic relations, at the EU-China summit in October 2010, EU and China’s
leaders decided to name 2012 as the EU-China Year of Intercultural Dialogue18. As part of
this initiative, Androulla Vassiliou, European Commissioner for Education, Culture,
Multilingualism and Youth, and Liu Yandong, Chinese State Councillor, signed a new Joint
Declaration to launch a “people-to-people” dialogue covering education, culture, youth,
research and multilingualism. The EU relationship with China is likely to deepen further as
the country’s development accelerates.

17 For more statistics on EU-China Trade Relations, see DG Trade Main Economic Indicators, 21 March 2012.
18 For more information, see EU-China Year of Intercultural Dialogue.

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Unusually, given South America’s importance in terms of energy production – the region
contains two members of OPEC (Ecuador and Venezuela) – and overall wealth (two
countries other than Brazil feature in the global top 30 with regards to GDP, namely
Argentina and Colombia), only 14% of respondents selected ‘other South American
countries’. EU27 exports to Brazil increased by 24% in January 2012 compared to the
previous year.19 Additionally, the USA ranked second-to-bottom, with only 19% of
respondents selecting it. The massive disparity between China and the USA in terms of
selection numbers may indicate a wider turning-away from the traditionally-held ‘Special
Relationship’ between the USA and the UK, suggesting that a significant number of
respondents would prefer to look to new markets to increase the EU’s global prominence.
In a recent essay for the Think Tank German Marshall Fund, Constanze Stelzenmüller,
Senior Transatlantic Fellow, pointed out that today “the problem of both America and
Europe is the diffusion and erosion of their own power”, noting that the challenge of the
21st century is not the weakness of others, but the weakness of the West20. Conversely,
respondents may feel that the EU-United States relationship is already sufficiently
well-developed for Europe to concentrate its efforts elsewhere.

Responses to the question:

‘With whom should the EU
seek to create better ties?
Select up to 3.’ separated
by sector.

Fittingly, every respondent who belonged to a membership organisation or trade union

selected China as one of their options, compared to 58% overall; additionally, they had a
much higher-than-average likelihood of selecting Africa as a region of interest, with over
60% choosing it as one of their top three. Consultancy groups were much more likely than
other respondents to suggest that the EU focus its attention on building ties with Russia,
while the corporate sector was likely to choose Brazil. Despite being the lowest-ranked of
the options given, public sector workers were most likely to nominate ‘other South
American countries’ as the region which most deserved the EU’s efforts to built stronger
international ties.

19 “Euro area external trade surplus 2.8 bn euro”, Eurostats, 16 April 2012
20 The West runs out of power by Constance Stelzenmueller, The German Mashall Fund of United States, 9 April 2012

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Responses to the question: % Charity Consultancy Corporate Membership Public Sector Total
‘With whom should the EU Organisation/
seek to create better ties? Trade Union
Select up to 3.’ separated Africa 33% 33% 20% 63% 25% 36%
by sector.
Arab States 33% 50% 20% 13% 38% 33%

Brazil 33% 17% 60% 25% 38% 31%

China 33% 50% 60% 100% 38% 58%

India 67% 17% 60% 50% 38% 39%

Russia 33% 75% 20% 13% 25% 39%

USA 0% 25% 20% 13% 25% 19%

Other South American 0% 0% 21% 0% 55% 15%

Countries

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Question 9:
‘The European Parliament should play a
bigger role in solving the economic crisis.’

Responses to the question:

‘The European Parliament
should play a bigger role in
solving the economic crisis.’

When offered the statement ‘The European Parliament should play a bigger role in
solving the economic crisis’, a significant plurality of respondents (39%) stated that they
strongly agreed. This was part of a general trend towards increased European
Parliamentary involvement, with two-thirds of respondents (67%) agreeing with the
statement (strongly or slightly), compared to just 17% respondents who disagreed. A
small but significant number of respondents (17%) remained on the fence about the
issue, professing neither agreement nor disagreement with the idea of an increased
intervention. Under the Lisbon Treaty, the European Parliament has significantly
extended its power with a wide range of new policies falling into the ordinary legislative
procedure (ex co-decision), meaning that MEPs decide new EU legislation on an equal
footing with the Member States Council in areas such as agriculture, immigration, justice
and international trade21.

Although the European Parliament has been able to co-legislate on a number of key
financial reforms, such as the economic governance package involving the creation of a
European Semester to coordinate budgetary policies of the different Member States, it
remained outside of the ad-hoc debt crisis management talks held mainly by France and
Germany at Ministerial level. On the occasion of the April 2012 Strasbourg plenary for
instance, the leader of the liberal ALDE group, Guy Verhofstadt MEP (Belgium), called
for more parliamentary debates on solutions to the current economic crisis that Europe
is facing.

21 For an overview of over 50 new EU competencies involving the voting powers of the European Parliament, see Annex IV, The
Lisbon Treaty, 10 easy-to-read Fact Sheets, Robert Schuman Institute, December 2009, p. 39

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Responses to the question:

‘The European Parliament
should play a bigger role in
solving the economic crisis.’
separated by sector.

Responses to the question:

‘The European Parliament
should play a bigger role in
solving the economic crisis.’
separated by sector.

Overall, every group surveyed believed that greater intervention from the EU is
necessary. While public sector workers were the most likely to suggest that they were in
favour of the idea (with membership organisations less favourably disposed to it
altogether), the strong overall cohesion amongst the groups suggests that this is a
mainstream response that is likely to be popular in the wider population. If there is a
consensus over the need for greater European economic governance, the debate
remains open over the scope of EU integration. The possibility of “enhanced cooperation”
introduced by the Lisbon Treaty allowing a group of Member States to go ahead with
certain policies in spite of the veto of certain Member States and the fact that the Euro
currency is not introduced in all EU countries might lead to the creation of different levels
of EU intervention according to the policy area – the UK opt out of the recent Fiscal Treaty
being the best example of the different approaches to the role to be played by the
European Union.

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Question 10:
‘Overall do you expect that the relevance
of the EU in 2012 will...?’

Responses to the question:

‘Overall do you expect that
the relevance of the EU in
2012 will...?’

Although there is a trend towards a belief that the EU will grow in relevance in 2012 – 44%
of respondents expected growth (slight or significant) in the coming months, compared to
19% who expected an overall decrease – more than a third of respondents noted that
they expected the relevance of the EU to stay at roughly the same level.

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2012

Responses to the question:

‘Overall do you expect that
the relevance of the EU in
2012 will...?’ separated
by sector.

Responses to the question:

‘Overall do you expect that
the relevance of the EU in
2012 will...?’ separated
by sector.

Despite the fact that most groups believed that there would be an increase in the
relevance of the European Union in 2012, corporate groups – on average – believed that
it would stay at the same level. By contrast, charitable groups were significantly more
likely than the average to expect an overall growth in relevance. Two years after the entry
into force of the Lisbon Treaty, the position of the Charitable Groups might be related to
new possibilities offered by the European Citizenship Initiative (see Question 6), or EU
policies in more areas, such as Sport (Art. 165 TFEU).

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Conclusion
If anything in 2012, the relevance of the EU will not fade away. However, with the sword of
Damocles of a further spreading of the Eurozone debt crisis still hanging over the EU’s
capitals, the EU might makes the headlines for the wrong reasons. It is clear from our survey
that over half of the respondents expect the EU to be the driving force to restore the stability of
the European economy. Despite an overall belief in a greater role for Brussels in stopping the
crisis, it remains unclear if the steps taken by the EU will turn out to be correct.

“2012 will be a Despite overall high expectations, corporations tended in the survey to believe on average
that the relevance of the EU would stay the same in 2012. In the past few months, the urgent
decisive year to need for economic reform proved both to be an opportunity for testing the new possibilities of
test the resilience the Lisbon Treaty and a threat to the Union itself. While almost four in five respondents named
and relevance of “economic governance” as being the biggest challenge that the EU would face this year, they
the Union.” also highlighted a number of hurdles, such as the issue of Germany as a “brake” rather than a
“motor” of European integration. The recent agreement on boosting the European Finance
Stability Facility (EFSF) might however assuage – at least temporarily – the divisions among
the Member States over the type of economic governance needed. While economic reforms
were named as the biggest challenge for 2012, respondents also named energy as a key
issue – the problem of rising prices and dependence on imports featuring high on the agenda.

Moreover, the survey highlights the limitations of the Lisbon Treaty, with two thirds of
respondents being in favour of a bigger role for the European Parliament in defining policies
to combat the economic crisis. Despite the new competencies given to the Parliament, it has
mostly been the Member States driving the economic reform agenda. The new Fiscal Treaty
does not include any oversight role as such for MEPs – the Commission being the main
austerity watchdog. This democratic deficit has been widely criticized, in the UK in particular.
Giving evidence to the European Scrutiny Committee in the House of Commons in London,
the London School of Economics academic Simon Hix22 recommended that the EU should
put in place “a more democratically legitimate political leadership structure, such as a
directly-elected Commission President”. The fact that only a minority of respondents – one is
six – indicated that they were aware of the new European Citizens Initiative (ECI) underlines
as well the need for a more effective communication between the EU and its citizens.

Finally, 2012 marks the first year anniversary of the European External Action Service (EEAS)
– a key feature of the Lisbon Treaty to boost the credentials of the EU as an international
player. Most respondents indicated mixed expectations for the EEAS effectiveness. However,
asked about the geographical focus, it is significant that they suggested developing better ties
with China and South American countries over the US, which might be explained by a relative
“weakness of the West”23. Both the new post-Lisbon institutional landscape and the pressure
on the EU to deliver in a time of crisis accentuate the tensions over defining the role and
shape of the EU. 2012 will be a decisive year to test the resilience and relevance of the Union.

22 See Written Evidence for the European Scrutiny Committee on Possibilities for Reinforcing the Eurozone Following the December
European Council by Simon Hix, Professor of European and Comparative Politics London School of Economics and Political Science,
4 January 2012
23 The West runs out of power by Constance Stelzenmueller, The German Mashall Fund of United States, 9 April 2012

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About Us
Launched in summer 2010, DeHavilland EU provides political intelligence, monitoring and
bespoke research services for public affairs professionals. Our services are designed to
help you influence policy and/or inform your strategy by anticipating change so you can
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DeHavilland EU
4C-Group Ltd
4th Floor
Square de Meeus, 37
1000 Brussels
Belgium

www1.dehavillandeurope.eu