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Boston (May 24, 2012) The Mass Insight Consumer Confidence Index for Massachusetts remained stable in the Second Quarter, with the overall score inching up from 84 to 85. This comes after a 20-point jump in the First Quarter of 2012. In Quarter Two, Massachusetts consumer confidence is still over 20 percent higher than the national consumer confidence published by the Conference Board. The Massachusetts Index tracks the national Conference Board data. Perceptions of the job market remained negative, although the number of consumers who feel that jobs are hard to get dropped 8% since last quarter to 45%, representing the lowest percentage in the last ten quarters. The percentage of consumers who believe there will be more jobs in 6 months decreased from 37% to 31%, the first decrease since July 2011, underscoring concerns for the future. Massachusetts consumers are seeing more positive conditions in the state, said William H. Guenther, CEO and Founder of Mass Insight. But there are enough dark clouds in the national and global picture to control their optimism. The Massachusetts Consumer Confidence Index, published quarterly by Mass Insight, is modeled on the national Conference Board Index, which is scaled to a 1985 base of 100 and varies above and below 100. If the Index is less than 100, respondents are more negative than positive. In past years, the Conference Board Index has ranged from 145 in January 2000 to 47 in February 1992. The survey on which the Massachusetts Index is based is conducted for Mass Insight by Opinion Dynamics Corporation. This survey consists of telephone interviews with 500 adult residents of Massachusetts. The second quarter 2012 survey results were gathered from April 30 to May 6, 2012. Mass Insight Global Partnerships, founded in 1989, is a Boston-based consulting and research firm that builds regional and global alliances between higher education, industry and government. Mass Insight organizes collaborative initiatives to shape public-private actions and develop innovative partnerships. For more information, visit www.massinsight.com.
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April 12 January 12 October 11 July 11 April 11 January 11 October 10 July 10 April 10 January 10 October 09 July 09 April 09 January 09 October 08 July 08 April 08 January 08 October 07 July 07 April 07 January 07 October 06 July 06 April 06 January 06 October 05 July 05 April 05 January 05 October 04 July 04 April 04 January 04 October 03 July 03 April 03 January 03 October 02 July 02 April 02
85 84 64 56 67 74 65 61 80 73 61 69 65 38 51 50 54 62 82 85 97 92 101 76 76 81 88 91 78 96 90 97 89 91 82 77 77 63 78 92 109
69 62 41 59 66 65 50 51 58 57 49 47 39 38 38 50 62 88 96 104 104 110 105 107 109 106 85 103 98 103 97* 106 93 98 82 77 81 79 80 97 109
Optimism on future expectations dropped four points from 118 last quarter to 114 today. This comes after a 27-point rise in the First Quarter. Optimism on current conditions was up again, going from 34 in the First Quarter to 41 today.
Current Conditions Future Expectations
April 12 January 12 October 11 July 11 April 11 January 11 October 10 July 10 April 10 January 10 October 09 July 09 April 09 January 09 October 08 July 08 April 08 January 08 October 07 July 07 April 07 January 07 October 06 July 06 April 06 January 06 October 05 July 05 April 05 January 05 October 04 July 04 April 04 January 04 October 03 July 03 April 03 January 03 October 02 July 02
41 34 24 20 24 17 15 16 22 14 14 16 24 9 27 24 35 49 76 80 89 74 86 68 77 71 80 80 63 70 64 66 53 48 36 41 31 28 48 68
114 118 91 80 96 112 99 91 119 112 93 105 92 58 66 68 67 71 86 90 102 104 111 81 76 87 95 99 88 114 108 119 113 119 112 101 108 86 97 108
84 72 94 108
125 130 90 93
500 Mass. interviews April 30 May 6, 2012; Massachusetts figures are adjusted to be generally comparable to the Conference Board figures, which use 1985 as a base year with the rating of 100. In past years, the Conference Board Index has ranged from 145 in January 2000 to 47 in February 1992.
The following tables show the results of the five questions that actually make up the index. 1. First of all, concerning the economy, how would you rate the present general business conditions in your area?
Good Normal Bad (Dont know)
April 2012 January 2012 October 2011 July 2011 April 2011 January 2011 October 2010 July 2010 April 2010 January 2010 2.
44 44 32 38 41 33 35 33 31 33
40 42 54 48 47 53 55 55 53 57
1 1 2 4 2 3 2 3 3 2
Six months from now, do you think general business conditions in your area will be?
Better The Same Worse (Dont know)
April 2012 January 2012 October 2011 July 2011 April 2011 January 2011 October 2010 July 2010 April 2010 January 2010
35% 35% 19% 20% 32% 40% 34% 27% 45% 40%
51 52 58 49 45 44 45 51 43 45
12 12 20 24 21 13 15 18 10 11
2 2 4 8 2 3 6 4 3 4
3.
What would you say about available jobs in your area right now? Are there:
Plenty of jobs Not so many jobs Jobs hard to get (Dont know)
April 2012 January 2012 October 2011 July 2011 April 2011 January 2011 October 2010 July 2010 April 2010 January 2010 4.
11% 10% 6% 4% 6% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3%
41 34 36 34 36 34 32 30 33 25
45 53 54 57 50 58 59 57 58 66
3 4 4 6 8 6 5 11 6 6
April 2012 January 2012 October 2011 July 2011 April 2011 January 2011 October 2010 July 2010 April 2010 January 2010 5.
31% 37% 23% 23% 26% 38% 24% 21% 42% 36%
43 40 47 37 49 37 47 45 39 41
23 21 27 33 22 19 21 26 17 17
2 2 3 7 3 6 8 8 3 5
Six months from now, do you think your total family income will be?
Higher The same Lower (Dont know)
April 2012 January 2012 October 2011 July 2011 April 2011 January 2011 October 2010 July 2010 April 2010 January 2010
26% 27% 28% 18% 21% 20% 17% 19% 21% 17%
62 60 56 64 60 61 65 65 62 66
11 12 14 15 17 16 16 15 16 16
1 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 1
The Massachusetts Consumer Optimism Index is published quarterly by Mass Insight, a Boston-based firm that organizes public-private initiatives on competitive issues affecting Massachusetts. The Massachusetts Index is modeled on the national Conference Board Index. The Conference Board index is scaled to a 1985 base of 100 and varies above and below 100; the Mass Insight Index is adjusted to the Conference Board scale using a constant factor. The survey on which the Massachusetts Index is based is conducted for Mass Insight by Opinion Dynamics Corporation. This survey consists of telephone interviews with 500 adult residents of Massachusetts. -30-