LEF 2008DigitalDisruptions

Technology Innovations Powering 21st Century Business
Leading Edge Forum 2008
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DIGTAL TRUST | LEADING ABoUT THE VoL. 8
EDGE FoRUM
LEA DI NG EDGE FoRU M
As part of CSCs Office of Innovation, the Leading Edge Forum (LEF) is a global community whose programs help participants realize business benefits from the use of advanced IT more rapidly. LEF members work to spot key emerging business and technology trends before others, and identify specific practices for exploiting these trends for business advantage. Members enjoy access to a global network of thought leaders and leading practitioners, and to a powerful body of research and field practices. LEF programs give CTOs and senior technologists the opportunity to explore the most pressing technology issues, examine state-ofthe-art practices, and leverage CSCs technology experts, alliance programs and events. LEF programs and reports are intended
to provoke conversations in the marketplace about the potential for innovation when applying technology to help advance organizational performance. For more information about LEF programs, visit www.csc.com/lef. The LEF Executive Programme is a premium, fee-based program that helps CIOs and senior business executives develop into next-generation leaders by using technology for competitive advantage in wholly new ways. Members direct the research agenda, interact with a network of world-class experts, and access topical conferences, study tours, information exchanges and advisory services. For more information about the LEF Executive Programme, visit lef.csc.com.
In this ongoing series of reports about technology directions, the LEF looks at the role of innovation in the marketplace both now and in the years to come. By studying technologys current realities and anticipating its future shape, these reports provide organizations with the necessary balance between tactical decision making and strategic planning. To receive these reports, subscribe to the LEF RSS feed: www.csc.com/lefpodcast
LEF LEADERSHIP WILLIAM KoFF PAUL GUSTAFSoN

Director, Leading Edge Forum Paul Gustafson is an accomplished technologist and proven leader in emerging technologies, applied research and strategy. As director of the Leading Edge Forum, Paul brings vision and leadership to a portfolio of programs that make up the LEF and directs the technology research agenda. Astute at recognizing technology trends, how they interrelate, and their implications for business, Paul brings his insights to bear on client strategy, CSC research, leadership development and innovation strategy. He has published numerous papers and articles on strategic technology issues and speaks to executive audiences frequently on these topics. pgustafs@csc.com Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Office of Innovation Bill Koff is a leader in CSCs technology community, providing vision and direction as vice president and chief technology officer for the office of Innovation. Bill plays a key role in guiding CSC research, innovation, technology thought leadership and alliance partner activities, and in certifying CSCs Centers of Excellence and Innovation Centers. He advises CSC and its clients on critical information technology trends, technology innovation and strategic investments in leading edge technology. A frequent speaker on technology, architecture and management issues, Bills areas of interest include system architecture, digital disruptions, innovative uses of data, and the open source movement. wkoff@csc.com
L E A D IN G E D G E Fo RU M
DIGTAL TRUST | VoL. 8
Digital Disruptions
Technology Innovations Powering 21st Century Business
Leading Edge Forum 2008
CoNTENTS
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Why Digital Is More Disruptive New Media

We have met the new media, and it is us.
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Living in a New Reality

We will blend physical and virtual reality, improving both.
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Social Power
The power inherent in connected people surges.
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Information Transparency
What is observed by one will be known to all.
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New Wave of Waves

The sky is not the limit as spectrum goes digital.
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Platform Makeover
This is not your fathers computing platform.
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Smart(er) World
Smarter everything makes us smarter everywhere.
80 82 93
Thriving on Disruption
NoTES ACKNoWLEDGMENTS
Get all LEF reports by subscribing to the LEF RSS feed: www.csc.com/lefpodcast
DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS
Why Digital is More Disruptive

over the centuries we have experienced at least a few principal disruptions to business as usual and life as we know it, including the Industrial Revolution, the Computer Revolution, and most recently, the Internet Revolution. Though these unstoppable and, for the most part, irreversible disruptions have brought unprecedented economic growth, the digital disruptions begun with the Internets launch at the end of the 20th century and responsible for a tremendous spike in global productivity promise a second-round impact in the 21st century that we can only begin to imagine. Digital disruptions are about information and communication technologies that change business models deeply, and often shockingly. These disruptions, on par with the telephone and automobile, transform the marketplace and society so completely that it can take decades for their full effects to be realized. The seven digital disruptions that will reshape 21st century Clayton Christensen first introduced the notion of disruptive technologies in his seminal book The Innovators Dilemma. A disruptive technology, in contrast to a sustaining technology, introduces a very different value proposition than was previously available. Disruptive technologies are often not recognized by
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disruptions play out, they will raise questions, alter behaviors, trigger new business models, and ultimately become part of the foundation of a new economy.
As these disruptions play out, they will raise questions, alter behaviors, trigger new business models, and ultimately become part of the foundation of a new economy.
business are: 1. New Media old media was about stiff distribution channels, big-studio creators and power brokers. New Media is about flexible distribution channels, self-created content and broad participation. Content moves from isolation to interaction. Creators are you and me. Distribution channels vary and overlap, so that TV comes over the Internet and vice versa. Prime time and media-controlled broadcast and distribution are things of the past. When the Writers Guild of America went on strike to obtain royalties for digital viewings, the chaos ignited by the strike TV shows were cancelled, reruns ran aplenty showed that progress with new media will not necessarily move from business model A to business model B, but more likely from A to chaos to B. This is likely to be true for all the digital disruptions. 2. Living in a New Reality We can break free of the physical worlds constraints by venturing into the virtual world. Augmented reality, a blending of the virtual and real, enables
existing customers as something they need currently, so firms find themselves facing a dilemma: if they listen to their customers and bypass the innovation, new entrants may swoop in and take over, often appealing to a different market first but then gradually taking over the original market. Therefore, disruptive technologies need to be considered from a market standpoint (what market values the new technologys characteristics?), not a technology standpoint. This report focuses on the latest disruptive technologies in information and communication technologies. These digital disruptions are completely reshaping industry, much the way the music industry has been rocked in the last decade by the advent of digital media. The seven disruptions identified in this report are all at various stages of maturation and, like the music industry transformation, are works in progress. As these
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us to move effortlessly in time and space, interact in new ways, and experience things like never before. Participate in a real-world event like a NASA spacecraft landing. Fly across a weather map of the country to see where its raining. Host a town hall meeting for 100,000 employees without anyone having to travel. Control your data center remotely. Learn from life-size virtual guides at a historic tourist site. The ability to visualize data from numerous sources in 3D will enhance learning and productivity beyond what we can imagine today. 3. Social Power Leveraging the power inherent in connected people is disrupting how we locate and retain expertise, collaborate, advertise, lend money and even listen to music. New business strategies harnessing social power put a premium on relationships and what others say and do, and tap the viral capability of social networks as distribution channels for advertising, software applications and more. Enterprises need to let people be people and flex their social muscle at the office (with blog posts, social networks, etc.), but within corporate guidelines for acting responsibly. With social networks infiltrating the enterprise as well as becoming the hub of ones Internet experience, major disruptions are afoot. 4. Information Transparency Information that was once cloaked in darkness inaccessible or nonexistent is now available in droves, shedding light on previously opaque people, processes and things. This leads to more efficiency and fewer surprises, and can redefine activities such as criminal investigations, product comparisons, driving patterns and, thanks to ubiquitous cameras, overseas hiring. When enterprises know where their employees and assets are in real time, they can operate more safely and effectively. People are demanding access to more data, on their terms, and this force will be disruptive as enterprises and government agencies work to respond. 5. New Wave of Waves The communications infrastructure is undergoing a major overhaul as the Internet and new radio waves that are extending the Internet create platforms that challenge the old regime. A general purpose communications utility has formed that obliterates the limited products and services of telephony, TV and radio that used to ride on 20th century infrastructures. As spectrum opens up, and spectrum allocation eventually falls by the wayside, the air waves become fertile ground some say beachfront property for a vast array of new services from new players, not just traditional operators. This sets up a perfect storm for innovation, where it is not clear who the ultimate winner will be except for the consumer.
6. Platform Makeover Silicon has its limits, so it is only natural that new methods are being explored to provide next-generation computation power, in many more places, and with many more purposes than todays computers. As the new methods emerge nanotechnology, molecular computing, quantum computing, optical computing they will challenge silicon-based business models and markets. one key disruption will be in cryptography. Quantum computing blows apart current encryption techniques, which are effective because it takes a long time (hundreds of years) to factor a large number and break an encryption scheme. A quantum computer can do it in seconds. When that day comes, everything that depends on encryption, from credit card transactions to e-mail, will be wide open and unprotected until new security techniques are created. 7. Smart(er) World It doesnt take long to point out what is dumb about our current technology landscape: applications that dont understand what we mean, rapidly-changing technologies that dont work well together, systems that crash for no known reason, computers that you talk to by typing. A smart(er) technology landscape that understands language and can reason is in the works. With that comes innovations in knowledge gathering, decision making and predicting. Smart virtual assistants are the future of online customer service, disrupting labor-intensive call centers. Semantics can be put to work to find expertise in the enterprise, solving problems faster and averting crises. Semantics at the IT infrastructure level make services more shareable and organizations more agile, since they can develop applications and manage change faster. Many of the digital disruptions overlap, triggering new and more powerful disruptions. Virtual worlds are the next frontier for social networks. Social networks have a strong influence on new media. Information transparency is a prerequisite for a smart(er) world. New waves are a key enabler of information transparency. New platforms will turbocharge all the other disruptions. This is an exciting time. In the pages that follow, we examine each disruption and its potential to redefine 21st century business. Forewarned is forearmed; explore with us what lies ahead and plan accordingly.
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neW MeDia
We have met the new media, and it is us.
When youre on youTube, youre looking new media in the eye. The new media is the ordinary person you and me creating and sharing life experiences through videos. It is the citizen journalist, the blogger, the podcaster, the basement musician, the cell phone author. It is professional talent freed from the vise of Big Media. New media is consumer-driven, interactive, social, customized and personal. People want to participate, and on their terms their content, their schedule, their place. New media is about entertainment and news digital video, audio and text delivered for personal consumption and customization, typically on a laptop, mobile phone, game box or hand-held device. New technologies continue the new media revolution, with consumers wresting more control from media titans and enjoying entirely new ways of experiencing entertainment and news. The Internet has become a global channel for new media, breaking down the strong-hold grip that Big Media traditional TV, radio, film and news producers have on their content and their audiences. The Internet levels the playing field, allowing others you and me to play. This new media world, where we can interact with artists and journalists and even be the artists and journalists, requires a new way to navigate it all. The entire access experience is changing and will continue to change, as the content itself also changes. These changes will be of huge importance, for they are designed around the consumer, not the producer. Whoever anticipates and meets the needs of the consumer best will win. This starts with recognizing that consumer has become an anachronism. yesterdays consumer has become todays proviewer, a producer and a proactive viewer. The proviewer has become a new source of content and a potential threat
to traditional media sources. The proviewer is prolific and garners an enthusiastic, if narrow, following. The proviewer actively creates, modifies, shares and evaluates; this is lean forward rather than lean back media. Are we returning to our roots? Some say that the new media is renewing the art of personal storytelling.2 We are entertaining each other individually and informing each other personally, not unlike how people communicated hundreds of years ago. In conjunction with this, video is exploding. Video is often considered the best way to tell a story or convey information, and the Internet and related technologies have lowered the barrier to widespread video. Enterprises can convey more of their corporate messages in video, and proviewers are becoming as facile with video as they are with text. Video is becoming just another data type: ordinary, plentiful and expected. So although new media is not just about video, video is a very important part of the story. Let us examine the story by exploring the disruptions in content and distribution that are driving the new media revolution.
TV (AND EVERyTHING ELSE) oN My TERMS

Created by Me
Content is no longer the sole purview of big TV and film studios, radio stations, newspapers and magazines. Proviewers generate content and are an entirely new source of creativity and competition. There are many examples: youTube, CNN iReports and other forms of citizen journalism, six million blogs, currenttv.com, Apples Garage Band and cell phone novels. These new media put the individual in charge of creating content, at once personalizing, diversifying and enlarging the content mix. Some call this mass social media, depicted in Figure 1.
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Figure 1 T HE E ME R GE N C E A N D R I S E oF MASS S o CIAL ME DIA
view time and most popular clips. Video can more readily be part of a mixedmedia marketing campaign.
Traditional Media
Television observe Media Outlets centralized mediation
Does Old Media Matter?
Institutional Control
When DuPont wanted to educate a younger audience about DuPont science and innovation and encourage conversation, it turned to video storytelling and used Brightcove to deliver the message. DuPont hired advertising agency Denuo, a unit of Publicis Group, to create shortform videos describing the relevance of DuPonts science innovations to everyday life. Denuo worked with Brightcove to place these Science Stories on blogs such as BoingBoing and SEED Networks ScienceBlogs, streaming the stories in dedicated players. In this way, viewers could easily spread the videos in a viral manner. (See Figure 2.)
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Source: Dion Hinchcliffes Web 2.0 Blog, Social Computing Magazine. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. http://web2.socialcomputingmagazine.com
In the enterprise, companies are enjoying similar freedom to become content creators. Enterprises can build and launch their own TV channels, and get corporate messages to large audiences through video, audio and imagery rather than standard text. Brightcove provides an Internet TV platform for enterprises to publish on-demand video and other digital media assets online. Whereas in the past it was cost-prohibitive for enterprises to communicate extensively, if at all, in video (it involved broadcasting or DVD manufacturing), Brightcoves platform, delivered as a hosted turnkey service, makes the video proposition cost-effective, especially for those serving niche markets. Brightcoves technology enables further distribution through syndication and viral video sharing; video content can be e-mailed, embedded in a blog or put in an RSS feed, so the message gets out much further. Content can include advertising, and metrics can be analyzed such as number of views, average
ge ed
Though DuPont has a long-established brand, with this effort Denuo helped DuPont connect with a new audience in a very targeted, different and relevant way. The program generated tremendous word of mouth, with 25 percent of views generated from word of mouth and 75 percent of those aged 18-24 (60 percent of those aged 18-44) indicating they
would tell an average of five people about the videos. (For more on word of mouth, see Social Power.) DuPont made a positive impact on its target audience 90 percent indicated the videos were interesting and informative using new media to reach that audience directly. The emergence of new digital media channels has created opportunities for any marketer to reach audiences in new, exciting ways and enable these audiences to share the content they view easily with others, amplifying the marketers voice, notes Gary Spangler, e-business leader, DuPont Electronic and Communication Technologies. If enterprises can bypass big studios, artists can too. Professional, acclaimed talent can create their own material uninhibited by producers and release it to a global audience, as with Funnyordie.com, a comedy video site that combines proviewer content with original exclusive content from professionals.
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Figure 2 BRI GH TCoV E S P L Ay E R E NAB LE S VIE WE RS To S PRE AD T H E Wo RD A Bo UT D UP o NT S S C I E NC E STo R I E S
Start of video features freeze screen that encourages users to initiate video play.
oTHER oPTIoNS ACCESSIBLE VIA PLAyER MENU

E-mail to a Friend Access Direct Link to Player Add to Blogger or Typepad Blog Access Embed Code to Post Player to Any Site
Source: Brightcove
NEw KId oN ThE BLoCK: VIdEo
There is a new kid on the block, video, that IT needs to befriend. Traditionally, little if any video has been allowed on corporate networks because it slows the network down and consumes so much storage. However, with video becoming a prevalent and preferred mode of communication on the Internet, ITs unfriendly attitude must change. Just like instant messaging (IM) and browsers, video is poised to infiltrate the enterprise and do an end-run around
IT. Employees will bring video into the enterprise without CIO consent. For example, an engineer might use a home laptop with a built-in camera to take footage for a project and post that video on an internal blog. Enterprises need alignment between IT and new media like video, just as IT had to ready itself for IM and the browser. Although video had many false starts with video e-mail, the ascent of YouTube signals that video is here to stay. This
extends to the enterprise as well, where video will become more popular for such activities as training, marketing and internal messaging. HewlettPackard has a YouTube-like site, HP Uncut, where employees post selfmade videos about best practices and experiences at HP so you can see and learn from the engineers themselves.3 Video is becoming a first class citizen, and IT needs to help this new citizen feel at home and prosper.
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Similarly, independent musicians can be heard and gain a following without a studio at sites like strayform.com. Aspiring producers and actors can release short-form Web videos that attract big audiences; one low-budget mini-series, We Need Girlfriends, which was released on its own Web site, promoted on MySpace, and later released on MySpace and youTube, has been picked up by CBS to develop as a pilot TV series.4 The notion of citizen journalism and microjournalism is alive and well in an age of youTube, Twitter, digital cameras, camera phones and blogs. Minute-by-minute details that would not make the 6 oclock news are now on full view in video, pictures, text or a mix; for better or worse, no ones actions are private. For instance, the nitty gritty of a political campaign can be captured for all to see, from pushing and shoving
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Making It Mine
In addition to creating original content from scratch, proviewers are manipulating and modifying once-untouchable content. Content is being served up more like raw data to alter for ones personal consumption. For instance, proviewers can create their own TV experience. Microsofts Mediaroom, an Internet TV platform that telcos can sell, works with TNT and Showtime to let proviewers choose which TV camera angle they want when viewing sports. This is a major departure from having the network decide, though the network is still in charge of much of the action, like which angles are available to choose from. This idea puts forth the notion of informed media, where a program such as a sports telecast can be enhanced by statistics, online chatting with friends, stopping the action, and controlling replays. Microsoft had a chance to put its viewer control on full display during the 2008 olympics in Beijing, when MSN, in an exclusive partnership with NBC, provided over 3,000 hours of live on-demand coverage of the games.
to controversial remarks by political candidates.6 Though this type of reporting might seem superficial, it can spread like kudzu and have real impact. (See Microblogging Makes Its Mark in Social Power.) Blogging in the enterprise, a form of citizen journalism, uncorks information and ideas as employees are given a voice to communicate their views and expertise directly, and customers and strategic partners can comment back (or create their own blogs). Blogging encourages a reciprocal exchange of ideas, fosters innovation through these frank conversations, builds loyalty and interest in the enterprise, and chronicles corporate history in a lasting, searchable fashion. Boeing and General Motors are two major corporations that have leveraged blogging to build customer ties and even influence product direction. Businesses can be bloggers too; this is not just a tool for the media, says Anil Dash, vice president of Six Apart, vendor of blogging software Moveable Type, TypePad and Vox. Its still early stage for enterprise blogs, but they will become important business tools. Then there is the cell phone novelist, who does an end-run around traditional publishing houses and authors by banging out short, clipped novels on a cell phone and publishing them on a Web site. In many cases cell phone novels, popular in Japan, are by first-time authors. These new authors are creating a new genre stories that are created a few lines at a time, often thin on plot and character development but appealing to a younger audience raised on cell phones, the Internet and comic books. In 2007, five of the 10 best-selling novels in Japan were originally cell phone novels, which were later published as books.
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Proviewers can also create their own TV and radio channels. Joost, Move Networks and others deliver TV over the Internet so proviewers can slice-and-dice programs to create their own channels, like a music playlist. BlogTalkRadio lets you broadcast your own radio station. (See Social Power.) Another area where proviewers are being given a voice, literally, is in televised political debates. In the U.S. presidential debates in 2007 sponsored by CNN and youTube, CNN took questions people submitted via youTube and made them the basis of the two-hour televised debates. This was a new form of questioning: by the general public, in their own words, with their emotions and faces on full display for the candidates. These were not prepared questions read by a professional moderator but personal questions coming from ordinary citizens, uncontrolled by the TV broadcaster or the candidates. With this new format the public becomes part of the national political dialogue, inserting itself directly into the discussion. Internet technologies and new media improve the ability to reach out to constituents and hear first hand what people are saying. Democracy does scale. Indeed, all the presidential candidates were pumping the Internet and social network sites like never before (most of these sites didnt even exist in the last election). This is giving rise to a new grass roots voice and an audience the candidates
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Internet technologies and new media improve the ability to reach out to constituents and hear first hand what people are saying. democracy does scale.
delivering low-budget films to a college audience wrapped in a social experience. young adults are invited to meet online before, during and after a showing, to send comments to friends and producers about what they like or dont like about a particular film.8 This highly targeted audience will help to create, influence and blowtorch content made just for them.9 This is a completely new movie-going experience. Sites like LastFM are changing the radio listening experience.
cannot ignore. It is safe to say the arrival of youTube, MySpace, Facebook and other video and social network sites is changing the face and voice of politics. The fun has just begun.
Redefining the Experience
Listeners on LastFM can build their own radio station, connect with others also listening to their station, and create communities around an artist. These activities are impossible to do on a traditional radio station. LastFM turns the radio industry on its head, from a top-down broadcast model to a bottom-up community model.
New media is about not only making it mine but also extending and redefining the experience. In the movie world, proviewers are gaining a bit of control over the most sacred of untouchable media, the movie. Technology by ClearPlay lets you filter out objectionable content while playing a DVD without altering the actual content. So, you could turn an R-rated movie into a PG13 version for your kids. This is a powerful new capability that studios oppose, as it changes the finished product that is viewed. However, this attitude fails to recognize that one-size-fits-all will no longer do. Home is where people can express their personal values, and the more flexible the movie industry is in addressing a variety of values, the higher the viewership. In fact, studios could increase their revenues by offering different versions themselves (rather than consumers or third parties doing it); this business decision requires a significant change in mind set and artistic values. Another sign of extending media content to others is the ability to add subtitles to a work. Technology from DotSUB lets anyone add subtitles to movies and video clips in any language, making the content more shareable globally. This is another area of opportunity for the studios, which typically offer a few translations for a few movies but not many translations for all movies. As for redefining the experience, one of the most powerful aspects of new media is that it is a social experience the audience shares its opinion of a work readily and can easily invite others to view or listen. Microsofts shared TV experience lets proviewers in different locations chat online while watching the same show. Blowtorch Entertainment, a new company, is
one of the most powerful aspects of new media is that it is a social experience the audience shares its opinion of a work readily and can easily invite others to view or listen.
on LastFM people come together united by similar tastes in music. The individual chooses what to listen to and uses that to connect to other fans as well as discover similar music based on what the community has recommended. When an artist adds a new title, listeners can find it via similar music, giving artists a new channel for having their work discovered. LastFM is like a portal into music and artists that provides a shared experience built on opinion, context and relationships. Social power redefines the media experience. (See Social Power.)
I DEMAND oN-DEMAND Having media on my terms includes not only content but also distribution. Having a better on-demand distribution model is imperative because proviewers decide not only what to watch or listen to but when and where. TiVo and Sling were pioneers in opening up TV access so that proviewers had more control. Today there are many signs of media distribution opening up
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PICTurE ThIs: FINdINg IT
As more content is rendered in video, audio and photographs, search techniques originally designed for text need to keep pace. New technologies are making it easier to search images and sounds to find what you need, match ads to content, and even cut down on shoplifting. For years, digital cameras have given pictures time stamps, making it possible to search by date; in the future it may be possible to search by who is in the picture, where they are, and even their expression, as advances in facial detection, geo tagging and expression detection become commercialized.10 Youll be able to find Aunt Sally or search for someone who is smiling or crying.
video content. Pluggd Inc. (now Delve Networks) and Digitalsmiths are two of many companies working on contextual ad placement using advanced video and audio search techniques. Pluggds search technology, SeeHere and HearHere, enables people to quickly find the content they want within a video or audio clip using a special concept-search technique. Its contextual ad placement technology is based on matching ads to consumer searches, including specific keyword searches. Digitalsmiths technology, VideoSense, digitizes video content so it is easily searchable inside and matches that content to context-appropriate ads. In the world of closed circuit television,
through better analysis of CCTV footage. IntelliVids intelligent video analysis software uses object-based searching to enable store personnel to camera surf to track a suspect or an object in real time. The software also enables the user to assemble critical video evidence in minutes to manage an investigation and share critical information video clips, still images and case notes all integrated in a single electronic file with store personnel and law enforcement. The act of shoplifting becomes more transparent, and thus preventable. (See Information Transparency.) That is the beauty of better search and analysis: understanding processes and leveraging the data at hand.
On the Internet, advertisers long for an automatic way to match ads to
technology from IntelliVid is helping store owners cut down on shoplifting
over open networks like the Internet and alternative networks like cellular, reaching broader audiences. Further, as distribution opens up, it is happening at near zero cost to the distributor. you dont have to press DVDs or CDs, or have TV or radio broadcast infrastructure. Instead, as the Brightcove-DuPont example showed, everyone can play. The new media vision is that TV, movies and radio be available for anytime, anywhere consumption and interaction.
Getting Out of the Box
Netflix, who moved DVD rentals from the store to our mailboxes and then our computers, has now pledged to deliver that content directly to our TV screens. Netflix is bringing some 6,000 movies and TV shows, available to paying subscribers of its Web site, to the living room TV via the Internet. The companys first partnership is with LG Electronics, which plans to add the Netflix service to a new line of HDTVs with wireless connections to the Internet.11 Netflixs goal is to be seen as a movie channel that can be accessed from numerous devices.12
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Another player in the movie rental shakeup is VUDU, whose VUDU Box makes over 6,000 movies accessible on the TV screen via the Internet. VUDUs appliance does not require a computer or cable or satellite TV just a broadband Internet connection. VUDUs system stores the movies and TV shows you rent or buy in your own personal digital library. (See Figure 3.)
TV and video content is getting out of its original box.
by players like Amazon and Apple (iTunes) that are making The writing has long been on the wall for traditional video rental companies to digitize distribution, spurred further movies available for download to computers and iPods, and Sony, a movie maker itself, that is making movies and videos downloadable to the Sony Playstation 3 game console. Also in the video content shuffle is youTube, who is bringing its Internet video content to TV via a partnership with TiVo.13 Viewers will be able to access youTube content through their TiVos; content will be streamed (rather than downloaded) via broadband connection.14 TiVo users will also be able to subscribe to Internet video feeds using RSS, expanding the role of RSS from text to video and providing flexibility for accessing Internet video. The youTube-TiVo partnership is the
Source: CSC
Figure 3 RENT MoVIES DIRECTLy FRoM yoUR TV SCREEN USING VUDU AND THE INTERNET
result of youTube opening its platform to outside developers. If Netflix, VUDU and youTube are about
Figure 4 TVU NETWoRKS BRINGS LIVE TV oVER THE INTERNET FRoM ARoUND THE WoRLD, VIA ITS WEB SITE oR THE DoWNLoADABLE TVUPLAyER (SHoWN HERE)
getting movies and other video content to TV, others are focused on getting TV content to the Internet. Either way, TV and video content is getting out of its original box. TVU networks lets you get foreign TV stations and other video content live over the Internet. From TVUs Web site, people in Pakistan were able to watch CNNi when that station was banned there. Soccer fans around the world can watch the latest soccer on Indonesias StarTV channel, and immigrants in the United States can watch Taiwan TV, TV5 Telugu from India, or Arca from Brazil. (See Figure 4.)
Source: TVU networks
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The platform uses peer-to-peer real-time packet replication so that, in contrast to traditional streaming, as the number of viewers grows the transmission does not degrade, and there is no need to account for additional traffic or boost infrastructure. TVU has sustained over 150,000 simultaneous viewers on a single Internet connection. TVU manages the overall network performance, with broadcasters controlling the rights, coverage, and schedule for their content. To broadcasters, we are another transmission medium, explains Paul Shen, CEo of TVU. The broadcaster determines what to broadcast and whether or not to charge viewers. TVU shares profit with the broadcaster from revenue generated from advertising on the TVU platform. As of May 2008, TVU had 4.5 million unique viewers per month who watched over 11 million hours of programming monthly; roughly 300 TV channels are broadcast daily. TVU is bundled into Hewlett-Packards Pavilion laptops and expects to have a global viewer base of 40 million by the end of 2008. TVU has content from over 200 countries, including amateur self-
broadcasters, and can broadcast up to HDTV quality. Called the ultimate in multicast TV, TVU provides global distribution of TV programming at low cost. Many others are working to get TV to the Internet. Joost and Move Networks use peer-to-peer technology but with different strategies. Joost, from the founders of Skype, stores content on its central servers and releases it (once) into the peer-topeer network, where it is shared among users. Move delivers video as a standard Web object that is cached in small bits for easier transmission. Both offer broadcast quality programming ranging from programs like The Gadget Show, a British television series, to segments from well-known U.S. shows like CSI: Ny, Greys Anatomy and CNN. Both aim to make it easier and more cost-effective than traditional broadcasting for organizations to get their video to a large audience. Hulu is a joint venture between NBC and News Corp. to provide prime time shows from NBC, Fox and other TV networks on the Internet. Here is Hollywood taking the bull by the horns to control online distribution of its content. The site is intended
NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg
New media is changing the face of online advertising, for as content takes on new forms, such as mobile and video, so does advertising. Online advertising is a nascent area, but one thing is sure: advertising will continue to grow and evolve online, where the audience is and the metrics are better. There is much experimentation and creativity taking place as companies seek to optimize advertising in a world of new media.
Connecting the Dots

The more relevant the ad, the more it is perceived as content and welcomed by the consumer. Targeting online ads through location and context is growing. Placecast combines location information with contextual information to put audience in place, as its slogan says. If you are at a hotel in Manhattan, Placecasts software can let advertisers know that you are attending a conference,
that you are probably in a certain income bracket, and that it is almost Valentines Day. Through Placecast, advertisers can recommend a shop near the hotel for purchasing a gift and send that ad, called a PlaceAd, to your mobile phone or laptop. Placecast gives anonymous location information context that can be converted into a revenue stream. It connects the dots to help advertisers target their audience.
Continued on the following page >
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NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg (continued)
Mobile ads, another form of targeting, are ads sent to you on a mobile device, customized to your location. If you are walking down the street past a department store, you might get an ad on your cell phone that jackets are on sale. Advertisers are salivating at this form of advertising because they get much closer to the customer and the point of sale than if using mass advertising outlets like TV and newspapers. CBS
Mobile is testing cell phone advertising in a partnership with the social network service Loopt, which lets families and friends keep track of each other on their cell phones.15 Members of Loopt who have GPS-equipped cell phones and have chosen to participate might receive an ad for a nearby restaurant or movie theater. There are privacy issues, of course, as people may find this form of advertising highly intrusive, so offering
mobile ads on an opt-in basis will no doubt be required. Still, location-based mobile ads put advertisers a huge step closer to the customer purchase.
online ads go video

Like content on the Web, advertisements are evolving from text to images (banners) to video. Video ads take on a new look and feel as they are incorporated into video content in different ways: viral ads, which are appended to video
BUy THE JACKET yoUR FAVoRITE TV CHARACTER IS WEARING WHILE yoU WATCH THE SHoW
content that is e-mailed around geo-targeted overlays, which are additions to video ads that reflect your location (for example, what stores are nearby in your state) interactive overlays, which let you click to a Web site or video for more information branded video players, which frame the content on your screen with an advertisers logo YuMe is one company offering these kinds of ad services;16 its ad platform will also power NBC Direct, the first site to offer free downloads of prime time TV shows.
Source: ICE Innovative Technologies
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NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg (continued)
As downloadable video content increases whether TV shows, short clips or movies, and whether to laptops, cell phones or other mobile devices dynamic video ads can be part of the downloaded content. On the belief that most people would rather have ad-supported content than pay for content, advertisers are gearing up for this and for being able to track these offline views for their ad metrics. Poddadies helps advertisers do that and has a system to change ads on the desktop once the video file has been downloaded. Adobe also has a system
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clicking and shopping is a major distraction from watching the show, its sure to satisfy impulse buying and the product company is selling direct to the consumer at retail, not wholesale, prices. The ICE technology works on standard TV (cable, satellite) and IPTV, and will be available for TV content on the Web. Further, producers can change the products in the show based on its sponsors. Technology from i3media, a consortium of media companies in Spain, lets you manipulate individual objects in a video frame. For instance, you could change a bottle of wine from a Monte Rosso Vineyard label to a Seven Springs Vineyard label if that grower is sponsoring the show.19 The proviewer can click on the wine bottle to obtain more information and purchase it.
spots and breaks, if any. Internet content is flexible and interactive, and advertising must follow suit. Key questions are: Who is in charge of IPTV channel programming, and thus advertising? Will there be a bidding system for ad time, or will advertising follow an entirely different business model? How do we get IPTV, the Web and television to accept and display each others ads when proprietary, incompatible video players and formats make integration and therefore an effective overall ad strategy difficult? Stay tuned as industry, audience and technology work out these and other online ad issues.
to change ads in its new Media Player.18
shop the show

There may be ads aplenty, but there still lurks the age-old question: How effective is the ad? Especially in a world of time shifting and ad skipping? If advertisers fear their ads are being ignored, they can try an ad-less approach. New technology lets people shop the show and buy products they see on a TV program right from their TV screen. If you like the shoes the actress is wearing, using technology from ICE Innovative Technologies, you can buy them instantly with a few clicks of your TV remote. The ICE technology provides a standard format for listing products, presented as a menu next to the show, that you navigate through to make a purchase. While its not clear if
new ad age
Though online advertising is in its infancy, it is clear that advertisers are moving from a scattershot approach to, ultimately, 1-to-1 marketing and buying direct from the ad itself (no more Web page redirects). The traditional (TV) ad network, with neatly delineated spots and breaks, has given way to a new ad network supporting Internet content that features wildly irregular
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to be used for marketing purposes and revenue generation, making money from ads on the site and in the videos. Before Hulu, NBC had removed its shows from iTunes in a pricing dispute with Apple; if Hulu, which launched in october 2007, succeeds, it will give networks more leverage in negotiating distribution deals with Apple and others.20 VeohTV comes at Internet TV from a different angle, serving as a video browser that captures, stores and sorts free online video content. VeohTV has been described as TiVo for the Internet, with a similar DVR-style interface that lets you find video you want and watch it when you want (save video streams as downloads to watch later if desired). VeohTV integrates video sources across the Internet, so you can watch full-length episodes from CBS, NBC, youTube, MySpace, Google, yahoo and thousands of other sources. As you use VeohTV, it learns what you like and makes video recommendations to you.
Challenging Old Thinking
cellular networks. The producers argued that the digital arena is not mature enough to make a compensation decision. In February 2008 a three-year deal was struck giving writers a percentage of the gross from digital distribution, though this could be mostly symbolic if revenue from digital distribution is relatively low.21 The growing pains of new media are being felt by content creators and producers alike as media industries continue to calibrate against an increasingly digital future.
on-demand is a powerful model that is pressuring old thinking about ownership and rights to change.
The new media vision for on-demand content will be in the making for some time. on-demand is a powerful model that is pressuring old thinking about ownership and rights to change. Digital distribution was a major factor in the 2007-2008 Writers Guild of America strike. The 12,000 writers from film, TV and radio, who went on strike for three months and forced many shows off the air, wanted stronger compensation for their works in digital, Internet and other non-traditional formats, whether DVD, streamed to a Web site, downloaded, or transmitted over LoSE To WIN Enterprises need to recognize that new media shifts power to proviewers. The business models that will flourish are those that invite participation and give individuals more control. ownership is not the way to win. openness, customization and personalization are the way of the future.
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living in a neW reality

We will blend physical and virtual reality, improving both.
According to philosopher Immanuel Kant (1724-1804), people can never know reality directly. We are, by design, one layer removed from reality, with our brains synthesizing external stimuli sights, sounds, smells, tastes and touches and creating a coherent experience. In other words, we experience the world through a layer of perception. Todays virtual worlds magnify this layering we do, pre-digesting data (stimuli) and feeding it to us as a new layer of perception that helps us understand the world in new ways. We can detect and analyze more, and ultimately make better decisions, because virtual worlds present data on our terms: visual, life-like, interactive and 3D. This is far more compelling and comprehensible than if data was rendered simply as text. If a picture is worth 1,000 words, a virtual world is worth 1,000 pictures and more. Put another way, virtual worlds offer the promise of all media, all the time, says Jan C.J. Jones, co-executive producer of Forest Rose Productions, LLC. Virtual worlds, with their origins in online games, are not new. However, whats different today is that virtual worlds are making their way into the mainstream, being applied to business and personal uses that go far beyond games. We are seeing real markets for virtual worlds, new levels of sophistication in virtual worlds, and more real-world data being incorporated that delivers new experiences or addresses previously unsolvable problems. As virtual worlds approach commercialization some estimate there will be over 50 million participants in virtual worlds by 201122 they leverage their game DNA. Many virtual world environments resemble and operate similar to a game, involving rich visualization 3D settings, avatars, objects and collaboration. This helps lay the groundwork for mass participation in virtual worlds, where the notion of a game per se may be subtle or nonexistent, but people familiar with games will know right away how to participate. VIRTUAL REALITIES INCoRPoRATE PHySICAL REALITIES Second Life, the poster child of virtual worlds, mimics the real world in that people (avatars) meet in Second Life, interact, acquire land, build houses and use currency (Linden dollars). Although In this chapter we explore virtual worlds and other expressions of virtual reality including simulations, augmented worlds and telepresence. The new reality is that we live in a blended reality that combines physical reality and virtual reality, improving both. To probe this, we examine how virtual reality is taking on properties of the physical word, and how the physical world is being enhanced with virtual reality. Virtual worlds and blended-reality worlds are powerful but not yet fully understood. However, virtual worlds and virtual reality will play an increasingly significant role in our personal and professional lives. How this story plays out is still unknown, but with more people populating virtual worlds and experiencing virtual reality in everyday situations, progress is being made as the story unfolds.
The new reality is that we live in a blended reality that combines physical reality and virtual reality, improving both.
it started as a social site, Second Life is fast being adopted for

business use as organizations explore its potential, particularly what can be done in a virtual world that was never before possible. For example, experience the weather as a weather balloon as your avatar flies over a weather map. The world becomes a
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science fiction playground where we are now in the simulation. What if we were a tile on the space shuttle? Through virtual worlds we can experience the rarely possible and the impossible.
in the future. Engineers could put a CAD model of a part on Explorer Island, make changes jointly, and save the new model on Explorer Island. The engineers could see the model in the context of the larger system it fits in. For example, they could see where the controls of a spacecraft would be and open up a control panel to see where the part ultimately belongs. Elsewhere, Second Life is being used to simulate disaster preparedness and response activities by the Idaho Bioterrorism Awareness and Preparedness Program. Whats different about this versus other virtual reality simulations is the ability to construct objects and environments with others, build collabora-
Through virtual worlds we can experience the rarely possible and the impossible.
At NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the impossible includes providing a real-time experience of the Phoenix spacecraft landing on Mars. For the Phoenix landing on May 25, 2008, JPL streamed realtime video from NASA TV to Explorer Island, its property in Second Life, and had a replica of the spacecraft in Second Life. (See Figure 5.) People watched the landing in Second Life while engineers watched at JPL, the California Institute of Technology and the University of Arizona. one person on Explorer Island cried because they were so happy to be part of a NASA event, said Tom Soderstrom, IT chief technology officer at JPL. Virtual worlds remove obstacles to participation you can now experience a Mars landing first hand and give JPL a personal connection to the public it never had before. As JPL experiments with Explorer Island for public outreach, conferences, training and collaboration, it has its eye on engineering
tive networks on the fly, and provide context for the exercises, complete with buildings, hospitals, helicopters and people. Coordination activities can be simulated, involving people, material, facilities, movement and routes. If you need to attend a meeting or view a presentation, you do so in the context of the environment and with others, increasing your awareness of peer activities. Another Second Life project, by the University of Denver, incorporates real weather data from the U.S. National oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NoAA) into a large map of the United States, where students can learn about weather in a wholly new way: by flying their avatars through weather patterns as they unfold across the country.23 organizations can also leverage learning by hosting a conference in a virtual world, as MIT did during its Emerging Technologies Conference in September 2007. MIT broadcast a portion of the conference live to Second Life, where it was watched by over 120 people on a virtual screen.24 MIT used software from Veodia to deliver TV-quality streaming video to Second Life. In a virtual world, people can navigate a conference or other live event through a 3D experience that enables them to interact with others via avatars. This is very different from watching a video of the event after-the-fact and alone (or attending the event in person). Figure 6 shows a virtual trade show hosted by the Everything Channel, where attendees could participate and interact in four
Figure 5
The Phoenix spacecraft landed on Mars in Second Life, coinciding with the actual landing on May 25, 2008. Several members of Second Life sat on the lander after it touched down. (Thats a second lander in the background, hovering.) The Second Life audience watched the lander go through its entry, descent and landing maneuvers in real time, seeing video from Mission Control, information directly from the Mission Controllers blog, and pictures as they came in. Source: NASA
different venues. In addition to being a testing ground for learning and training, Second Life is being
16
Figure 6
Welcome to this virtual trade show. Each building in the middleground represents an area of interest (from left): conference center,
exhibits, media center and the CopaCabana. By visiting each area, you can hear presentations and gather conference materials (documents) in your virtual briefcase. When you need a break, hang out at the CopaCabana, where you can chat with attendees. The trade show environment was created using InXpo, an open source toolkit for building collaborative 3D virtual worlds. Source: Everything Channel
used for other real-world activities such as recruiting, orientation, marketing, co-designing products with customers, testing floor layouts and designing dream kitchens.
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to be started by dragging and dropping files onto the walls, which can then be collaboratively viewed and updated. Qwaq Forums runs a version of openoffice.org and the Mozilla Firefox browser and allows desktop sharing, meaning easy viewing and editing of Microsoft office documents and other formats such as PDFs. Being able to edit documents in real time, working together, is a core feature. Users can drag and drop documents from their local desktops to the applications running on the room walls, and vice versa, and can review files in 2D and 3D, all while discussing topics using built-in text and voice chat. By linking rooms, users can move between them, like going from one meeting to another. Importantly, the rooms persist, so the current state of a project remains intact. This allows users to adopt different working styles; for example, they can leave work for each other to review or meet interactively to review together. CSC developed a proof-of-concept with Qwaq Forums, focusing on solution selling (how to sell and what to sell), that was tested with 80 CSCers representing a variety of roles within the sales and business development community. Qwaq Forums was chosen for its security, minimal hardware requirements, and business orientation. overall reaction was positive, with 90 percent agreeing that Qwaq Forums is a viable technology for learning and business purposes. We are opening the door to a new way for teams to collaborate and learn virtually by providing a highly contextual
Reuters has
reporters in Second Life reporting on Second Life to the real world, and reporting on the real world to Second Life. Also seizing on the interplay between virtual and real for news, the British police used Second Life in the highly-publicized case of Madeleine McCann to help search for the missing four-year-old by posting virtual pictures of her.26 (This virtual-real detective work was taken to a whole new level on a TV show; see BlendedReality Entertainment later in this chapter.) To expand virtual worlds for business use, Second Lifes creator, Linden Lab, is working with IBM to create open standards for virtual worlds that help advance the vision of a 3D Internet for commerce. This work includes having protocols and standards for such things as universal avatars that can traverse different virtual worlds (instead of having to create a separate avatar for each world), and interoperable worlds that can be linked and traversed as easily as moving from one Web page to another.27 Whereas Second Life is an open platform inviting anyones participation, another virtual environment, Qwaq Forums, is designed specifically for secure business collaboration. With Qwaq Forums, users can quickly create a virtual room team room, conference room, media room from a template and customize it for meetings or projects. Each room comes with smart walls, allowing applications document editor, spreadsheet, whiteboard, etc.
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Virtual worlds are an important way to engage the new generation entering the workforce and help global, matrixed teams ramp up quickly to increase their productivity.
environment, says Holly Huntley, CSCs global chief learning officer who sponsored the project. Virtual worlds are an important way to engage the new generation entering the workforce and help global, matrixed teams ramp up quickly to increase their productivity. CSC is exploring roll-out options for Qwaq Forums as a new platform for learning to support key communities and other enterprise development programs. Qwaq Forums is not an either/or but an addition to e-mail, phone, wikis, IM and telepresence, providing hands-on collaboration (e.g., jointly editing documents) that the others, with the exception of wikis, do not. Qwaq Forums presence (feeling like you are in the same place with someone) is stronger than IM but not as strong as telepresence; it can be delivered through simplistic avatars that connote a get the job done environment, meaning you dont need to spend a lot of time on your avatars appearance. A neat feature of Qwaq Forums is its distance-sensitive voice capability. Users don head sets and speak through them as if their avatar is talking; a person can sound near or far away depending on where his avatar is in relation to yours. (Second Life does this also, but conference calls do not.) Intel is partnering with Qwaq to integrate Intels Miramar 3D information space technology with Qwaqs technology. The result will be a new desktop visualization edition of Qwaq Forums that integrates 2D desktop applications and shared 3D information work spaces for large numbers of users across the enterprise. According to Intel chief technology officer Justin Rattner, Intel envisions using the desktop visualization edition of Qwaq Forums to dramatically enhance the productivity of our global distributed workforce.28 (See Figure 7.) If the enterprise is looking for a focused application for getting started in virtual worlds, a virtual data center might be the way to go. IBM Labs has created a 3D Data Center using openSim, an open source virtual worlds platform. IBM provides the 3D Data Center application as part of its virtual worlds services. Its a practical entree into virtual worlds, especially if the company is IT oriented, says Michael osias, architect of the 3D Data Center. Theres a real shock value when people first see it because its such a compelling use of virtual worlds technology.
Figure 7
A Qwaq Forums virtual auditorium is used to present a
surgical procedure. Left display: Miramar by Intel Corp. Right display: Video feed by Clarity Creative Group LLC. Cleft patient model by BioDigital Systems LLC in collaboration with NyU Medical Center. Virtual auditorium design by E-spaces, n.v. Source: Qwaq
Figure 8
Manage real data centers using IBM Labs virtual 3D
Data Center. Use your avatar to roam server rooms in different cities, check equipment and distribute workloads. you can also run simulations of space, power and cooling planning as well as disaster recovery scenarios. Source: IBM
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Through sophisticated visualization, the 3D Data Center simplifies complex processes and data, including hardware data, monitoring data and financial data. By rendering computer equipment in 3D and combining it with monitoring information like the temperature of a CPU rack, the 3D Data Center presents a hybrid visualization that is easy to understand. (See Figure 8.) For example, you can identify hot spots (represented by a flame) and take action: move virtual machines to other machines that have available capacity, move machines to a cooler spot, or even move workloads to another geographic site. All this can be done without being physically present. IBMs Dallas Global Solutions Center was the first production user of the 3D Data Center; the Swiss firm Implenia, which manages commercial real estate, is also an early user. Both are running their data centers more efficiently as a result. Collaboration in the 3D Data Center is done via avatars and instant messaging; IBM intends to add voice in the future. Longer term, IBM is targeting enterprise architecture for virtual worlds; that is, build an enterprise architecture (e.g., operating system, middleware) in a 3D environment and hook it to a real system. IBM started the 3D Data Center in Second Life and switched to openSim for security and control purposes (i.e., for use behind the firewall). Many enterprises dabble in Second Life and then progress to a platform that addresses their specific needs. A sample of virtual world platforms is shown in Figure 9. other companies, like energy giant Shell, are focusing on collaboration to drive innovation across the organization. Shells GameChanger innovation group teamed with Unfrozenmind to create an archipelago of 3D virtual islands in Second Life to stimulate internal and external collaboration, learning and
QWAQ Fo RU M S P RoToS P H E RE M U LTIVE RS E 3DVIA VIRTo o LS CRo QUET (BE TA) TH E RE TW INITy (BETA ) P LATFo RM
creativity among Shell employees. The islands have a learning center, laboratory, ideation area, 3D project mapping arena and other business facilities. Unfrozenmind designed and developed the islands as part of its BrandNewPlanet 2.0 collaborative offering, working with concepts jointly developed by Shells GameChanger group.
Tapping Location, Movement and Expression
Virtual realities about places are improving with an influx of real-world data. Google Earth gives a 3D rendering of the planet that can be manipulated, mashed up and drilled into as the user searches for driving directions, restaurants, shops, parks, tourist sites and geographic features of a particular place. EveryScape,
Figure 9 V I RTUAL Wo RLD PLAT Fo RMS A SAMPLE

TA R GET USE HoSTED By oP EN SoU RCE
S ECo ND LIFE o P ENS IM (BE TA ) Wo NDERLAND (BE TA)
Entertainment/Multipurpose Entertainment/Multipurpose Enterprise/Multipurpose
Vendor Self Vendor/Self
No yes yes
Enterprise/Collaboration Enterprise/Training Multipurpose Development Platform Multipurpose Development Platform
Vendor/Self Vendor/Self Self Self
No No yes No
Multipurpose Development Platform
Self
yes
Entertainment Entertainment
Vendor Vendor
No No Source: CSC
which believes being there is more important than getting there, provides virtual streetscapes that give a photorealistic view of a city at ground level, including monuments, stores and buildings you can walk into. (See Figure 10.) The city of Barcelona, working with Barcelona Media, has incorporated city data waterworks, electrical data, telecommunications wiring and building data into an accurate, large-scale, virtual city that you traverse by moving your arm in front of a large projected display of the 3D city, your avatar zipping
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Figure 10
Explore the real world online using Everyscape.com. Here, travel down West 43rd Street in New york City to check out the
Times Square area, using your mouse to advance or change direction (360-degree turns possible). The map at right tracks your position as you move, so you always know where you are. Source: EveryScape
through the streets or sewers of Barcelona. The city is starting to use the technology to coordinate contracting work; engineers, architects and other workers can see and study an area of the city before they start ripping up streets or laying concrete. In addition to map and infrastructure data, another neat boost to the virtual from the real comes in movement data for avatars. Sam the Weatherman, an avatar from Activa Multimedia who delivers weather reports on the Internet, cell phones and TV, and is the leading provider of weather forecasts in Spain,29 has a catalog of movements that are based on data from real movements by real people, collected and processed by Barcelona Media. (See Figure 11.) Sams realism, enhanced by his movements, draws people to information they might otherwise ignore. Reality helps virtual reality, which ultimately improves our reality. We know to expect rain today.
the term user-generated reality to define the broad spectrum of creative, self-expressive, user-generated animation it enables.
Virtual realities about places are improving with an influx of real-world data.
Figure 11
Another approach to avatar creation comes from Fix8, which provides technology to create enriched avatars that incorporate reallife features such as facial expression and voice. Fix8 has coined
To bring life-like movement to avatars, Barcelona Media straps reflectors to a persons arms, legs, torso and head, captures the persons motions via camera, and maps the movements to an avatar. CSCs Alex Fuss demonstrates at Barcelona Media during a site visit in conjunction with a TTI/Vanguard conference in Barcelona on New Form/New Content. Source: TTI/Vanguard
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More Fun, Really!
In entertainment, virtual reality is incorporating reality to give us new experiences. The hit video game Guitar Hero and its offspring Rock Band mimic playing music in real life. Both let you experience music by feeling it as you play the music with a nearlife-size guitar or other instrument as the controller. you play music by following color-coded patterns on screen that match the color-coded buttons on your guitar or other instrument, earning points (like a game) for how well you play. Some say this will change how people get to know music, yearning to play a new song in order to experience it.30 The Nintendo Wii echoes this idea of feeling the game with its motion-sensitive controllers that resemble the real world, such as a pool stick or cooking utensils. Nintendo understood that players wanted a more dynamic experience, so it tapped into the users motion and haptics, not more realistic graphics or sound, to make Wii games more lively and real. you can stir your virtual soup in the game Cooking Mama: Cook off or do real push-ups with your virtual trainer in Wii Fit. Second Life played virtual host to the 2006 Grand Slam tennis matches to give fans a new way to experience the tournaments, complete with near-real-time data from the tournament. IBM set up the virtual stadiums and provided a unique viewer experience such as being able to watch live matches from different perspectives (eg., player, umpire, first-row seat). IBM calls it v-business, or business conducted in a virtual space.31 This experiment in fun is serious business.
organizations are adding virtual reality to physical reality where physical reality alone cannot get the job done, or virtual reality can do it better.
In cars, being able to see a virtual obstacle and successfully drive around it can improve driver training and safety. A mobile vehicle operation and encounter simulator helps drivers see potential obstacles and avoid them.32 The simulator uses a head-mounted display worn by the driver to show virtual obstacles against a real-world background. The driver sees the obstacle and responds to avoid hitting it; the car generates motion and visual feedback to the display, which adjusts the scene accordingly. The simulator was awarded a patent in 2006 and can be used to improve training, engineering and research about driver response behavior. In the past, vehicle simulators have been too expensive for everyday drivers, and only the most costly simulators could provide credible motion cues; this invention, which takes advantage of recent advances in computer processing and image generation speeds, creates a cost-effective and realistic vehicle-in-motion environment. Imagine you are a tourist at a historic site, and a life-size virtual
PHySICAL REALITIES INCoRPoRATE VIRTUAL REALITIES As virtual spaces adopt physical world characteristics, so too the physical world is getting a boost by adopting virtual reality characteristics. If virtual reality is one end of the reality spectrum, and the physical world is the other, this section focuses in between but towards the physical world, to see how virtual reality enhancements to it are making improvements. organizations are adding virtual reality to physical reality where physical reality alone cannot get the job done, or virtual reality can do it better.
Seeing Is Believing
character you can see and hear explains the sites significance and what it was like to live there 150 years ago. Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology are working on experiences that incorporate full-scale virtual characters that move and talk, describing a site or tourist attraction in narrative detail in situ. Don your special glasses to see and hear the 3D Sarah Dye tell her tale about the Civil War, and what brought her to oakland Cemetery in Atlanta, as you and Sarah walk the cemetery grounds.33 (See Figure 12.) Augmented reality makes the experience much richer than reading Sarahs story on a plaque; it provides a brand new way to learn about and take in the physical site.
Being able to see ahead, or see something rather than read about it, is a powerful capability. In the military, an unmanned aerial vehicle can see over the next hill, helping troops decide whether or not it is safe to proceed. The UAV is operated remotely and serves as a virtual sentinel on the battlefield. Having this advance information in near-real time is significant for readiness and something soldiers cannot do themselves.
our goal is to create much more natural and easy-to-learn interfaces to educational experiences, says Blair MacIntyre, associate professor in the School of Interactive Computing and director of the Augmented Environments Lab in the GVU (Graphics, Visualization and Usability) Center at Georgia Tech. These interfaces align graphics and sound with real locations in the world, like a grave or a room. People interact by moving
21
Better Science
The science lab is being enhanced by powerful simulations that are able to process enormous quantities of data, such as from the Human Genome project, in realistic timeframes. Structure magazine reported on the first simulation of a whole biological organism, the satellite tobacco mosaic virus, showing in intricate molecular detail how each of the million or so atoms in the virus and a surrounding drop of salt water was interacting with almost every other atom every femtosecond, or millionth of a billionth of a second.36 In the future, researchers hope that bigger, longer simulations will reveal how viruses, the smallest natural organisms known, invade cells and cause disease.
Collaborating in the Office
Advances in telepresence help people in different locations feel like they are in the same room, changing the dynamics of ordinary video conferencing, which has less fidelity and in the past has
Figure 12
An artists rendering of a historic tourist site augmented
with virtual reality story-telling. Researchers at Georgia Tech are working on this. Source: David Stuart
around the location. People have a much better understanding of where they are in real space versus virtual space, and we want to leverage this. Another historical site getting a boost from the virtual is the Vietnam Memorial in Washington, D.C. An interactive Vietnam Wall has been created at Footnote.com in conjunction with the National Archives. The digital memorial is searchable by name, hometown, year of death and many other categories, making it easy to find a person (and then easily locate their name among over 58,000 others when visiting the real wall). At the digital wall, visitors can post tributes, stories and photos, sharing them with others globally. Its not the same as being at the real wall, but it encourages learning and can be cathartic for veterans, for it may even shock them to the extent that they come back to reality, says one veteran.
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Figure 13
The U.S. government uses virtual people in 3D simula-
tions to help teach foreign languages such as Arabic. The virtual scenarios demonstrate gestures, action, facial expressions, visual cues and lip-synchronized speech, all key to learning the language. This scenario simulates interaction at an Iraqi checkpoint. Source: Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) Modeling, Virtual Environments and Simulation (MOVES) Institute and Vcom3D, Inc.
been notoriously hard to use.37 Hewlett-Packard, in conjunction with DreamWorks, has created an immersive visual display that surrounds the user, going beyond traditional video conferencing. The Panoply display, first used to view car races, is now part of HPs Halo Collaboration Studio. Using Halo studios technology set up in a conference room, companies can hold face-to-face meetings with people in various locations, with life-size displays and real-time audio. These and
The virtual is being used to enhance the real for many other educational purposes. The U.S. government is using virtual reality to enhance foreign language skills training, particularly when learning Arabic for use at Iraqi checkpoints.35 Understanding gestures is critical to understanding the meaning of spoken words. (See Figure 13.)
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similar displays are used extensively by outsourcing firms in India to communicate with their clients in the United States and elsewhere. CSC is working on a pilot project with NASAs JPL to explore high definition video conferencing. The pilot involves three rooms, two at JPL offices in Pasadena, California and one at CSCs Pasadena Innovation Center. The rooms are outfitted with systems from LifeSize Communications that provide 90 percent of the telepresence experience of high-end systems (such as those offered by HP and Cisco) at a fraction of the cost. (other telepresence vendors include Polycom and Tandberg.) The lower price point allows organizations to outfit many more rooms and achieve the network effect of having enough systems to connect with to make the technology more valuable, which results in better collaboration throughout the engineering ranks, not just for senior staff.
simply pushing a button and selecting your call. on the receiving end, rooms can be set up to answer calls automatically or manually. The idea is to encourage use through simple operation, in contrast to more complicated videoconferencing technology that often sits dormant and requires more time-consuming activation.
Telepresence is not so much about saving on travel costs as it is about having more effective meetings and solving problems right away.
Tomas Soderstrom
The LifeSize solution serves the most people in the most costWhereas traditional (standard definition) videoconferencing typically connects larger groups of 10-30 people per room, telepresence addresses a different paradigm, connecting small groups of 1-4 people per room for remote face-to-face collaboration. (See Figure 14.) This enables more personal interaction than phone calls or audio conferencing, and more timeliness and efficiency than meeting in person. Telepresence is not so much about saving on travel costs as it is about having more effective meetings and solving problems right away, observes Tomas Soderstrom, IT chief technology officer at JPL. The pilot uses LifeSize systems that support up to four continuous presence locations and large, 61-inch monitors that provide a face-to-face experience even in multipoint calls. LifeSize systems deliver telepresence-quality video communications (1280 x 720 resolution at 30 frames per second, which is typical for high definition videoconferencing) over existing broadband networks, including the Internet, with as little as one megabit per second of bandwidth, thus avoiding the high cost of dedicated lines. The pilot emphasizes always on, meaning the monitor sleeps and is activated by JPL, which has 5,000 employees scattered in over 100 buildings on its Pasadena campus, has purchased four systems since the pilot began. Some 30 other locations at JPL, other NASA centers and JPL vendor partner sites are being considered for systems. effective manner, says Todd Lucas, director of CSCs Pasadena Innovation Center who is heading the project.
Figure 14
Telepresence technology is being deployed at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory to
promote more meaningful dialogue and participation while minimizing the costs, down time and environmental impact associated with travel. The solution from LifeSize Communications enables many rooms to be outfitted so that rank-and-file employees, not just senior staff, can benefit from using telepresence. Source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory and LifeSize Communications
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Another twist on telepresence is mobile telepresence via a robot. HeadThere believes telepresence is the killer app for robotics; the companys Giraffe robot technology is designed to bring telepresence into the mainstream. The Giraffe is a tall, slim machine with a video screen and camera as its head and an adjustable-height base that extends more than five feet tall. The base is on wheels, so the Giraffe can be rolled to wherever you need it: an office, lobby, factory, center for daycare or elderly care, or room at home for telecommuting or watching the kids remotely. Be wherever you need to be.38
Clothes that Fit
Figure 15 SHoPPING MEETS VIRTUAL REALITy
In fashion, the real world meets the virtual when it comes to trying on clothes. TC2s Intellifit body scanner, a walk-in booth that does a 360-degree body scan in less than 10 seconds, could redefine the fashion industry in terms of how bodies are measured, patterns are sized, and people try on clothes. The scanner uses cylindrical holographic imaging technology to take a full body scan and create 3D avatar images detailing a persons precise measurements. Shoppers can use the avatars to try on clothing when shopping online. (Send your avatar specifications to a 3D printer and youll have a perfect mini-you! See Platform Magic: 3D Printing in Platform Makeover.) This is a big step forward from self-reported measurements, which Lands End, for one, has been using since 1998 and enhanced in 2003 with 3D models (My Virtual Model) based on the self-reported measurements. If youd rather shop in the store than by catalog but youre too busy to try outfits on, you can try them on virtually. At the Manhattan Bloomingdales, in the Lanette Lapore department, an interactive mirror can show you a life-size image of a virtual dress, like a hologram, that you try on by positioning yourself behind it.39 (See Figure 15.) The virtual fitting the real you in the virtual dress can be beamed to friends via the Internet, who can tell you, via text chat that appears on the mirror, if you look good in red. The idea that you can go shopping and interact with friends who cant be there show them what youre trying on and get immediate feedback is something that wasnt possible before. In addition, you might want to have an avatar that looks like you try on the virtual dress. Face creation and face recognition technologies from Animetrics are being used in Korean department stores so you can try clothes on an avatar that resembles you and see how you look. Animetrics is working with Korean company iFashion to personalize its avatar software. iFashion is by far the The key to the Animetrics GotFace technology, which converts 2D pictures to 3D facial models, is being able to work in suboptimal lighting and with angled rather than straight-on poses. (See Figure 16.) This is a big benefit when working with photographs or surveillance video. Animetrics technology is also being used for national security and law enforcement, to better identify people of interest from photo libraries. The focus is not on virtual worlds but rather on visualization for better intelligence about a person. most advanced full body avatar for the consumer world. This is becoming a real market, says Paul Schuepp, president and CEo of Animetrics. The ultimate goal is to be able to try clothes on your customized avatar in a virtual shopping mall, having submitted measurements and your photo via the Web. Animetrics is also working with a company that will provide virtual hair styles for your face as a service at hair salons.
Try on a virtual dress and show your friends at home via the Internet. Source: Andrea Mohin/The New York Times/Redux
The idea that you can go shopping and interact with friends who cant be there show them what youre trying on and get immediate feedback is something that wasnt possible before.
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Figure 16 G oT FAC E ?
Animetrics GotFace software converts the 2D photo on the left to a 3D facial model, which is added to an avatar to create the real you. Such personalized avatars are being used for trying on clothes virtually in real stores and, ultimately, in virtual online stores. Source: Animetrics
Blended-Reality Entertainment
club, and the real club had screens up showing the corresponding event in Second Life. When asked if I was bringing my avatar with me via my laptop the club has free Wi-Fi I decided I needed to sit down and have a nice cup of tea. A bit perplexing, maybe, but certainly a way to broaden participation.
Virtual clothing and virtual appearances make a neat statement for virtual reality augmenting physical reality, but what about when virtual reality is the star of a TV show? Here we have the real TV show (though some question if a TV show is real) being improved with virtual reality in the plot. The result is many twists and turns as characters weave in and out of reality and virtual reality. CSI: Ny aired an episode in october 2007 in which crime investigators turned to Second Life to help solve a murder. The plot involved impersonating avatars in the real world, investigating the real crime as an avatar, getting real leads in the virtual world, searching for real suspects by finding their avatars, and being attacked by a real computer virus inflicted by an avatar. In an added twist on the interplay between real and virtual, viewers could log onto Second Life during the broadcast and investigate the clues. The TV show dramatized the tension between the real and the virtual and delivered a unique viewer experience through a blended reality. Another case of blended reality was opening night at a UK nightclub. Notes Ben Machin, technical lead on CSCs Qwaq Forums project, I was invited to the club, which was also hosting an opening night of itself in Second Life. The music in Second Life was streamed live from the real
The TV show dramatized the tension between the real and the virtual and delivered a unique viewer experience through a blended reality.
Reliving Your Vacation
Another unique experience could be showing how you spent your vacation, virtually. If you take digital photographs on vacation and upload them to Flickr or another photo sharing site, Microsoft Live Labs Photosynth software can combine them into a 3D visualization that can be navigated like a virtual world. Relive the experience and share it with your friends. Back at work, you could relive a conference or trade-show experience the same way.
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THE RESULT: A NEW REALITy As the physical world is augmented by the virtual, and the virtual world gets closer to the physical, a new reality is born. This blended reality has important implications for organizations, as shown in Figure 17. We will continue to see a blending of physical and virtual reality, where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. While some question the relevance of the virtual world to the real will virtual marketing and sales translate to real sales? there seems to be a connection that will only grow stronger as both sides, virtual and real, explore and experiment. As in the early days of the Web, we are in the formative stages of virtual worlds. People are fascinated by the possibilities,
both business and personal, of this uncharted territory. The barrier to entry is low; you dont have to pack up and move West with uncertainty but can pioneer with safety and relative ease. Early indications are that virtual worlds can provide a better understanding of reality and bring us closer to our real selves. Thats having the best of both worlds.
As the physical world is augmented by the virtual, and the virtual world gets closer to the physical, a new reality is born.
Figure 17 T HE N E W R E A L I T I E S
A N E W L E A D E RSHIP Mo DEL WILL E M E R G E B AS E D M o RE o N MERIT THAN H IE R A R C H y. S U P E R - Co L L A Bo RATIVE WoRK SKILLS W IL L B E PA R AM o U NT.
Enterprise teams will form and disband based on the skills needed at the time (similar to online games). Look for flatter, more collaborative, more flexible organizational structures, where skills are more important than seniority. Collaborative gaming skills like ping quotient (connecting with others when requested), protovation (experimenting rapidly despite risks), mobbability (working well in large groups) and influency (being persuasive in multiple social contexts and media spaces) will be key.40
V I RT UA L Wo R LDS WILL ENABLE NEW M o D E S o F IN T ERAC TIo N. V I RT UA L Wo R LDS WILL FACILITATE E X P E R IM E N TATIo N. IT E R AT I V E D E VELo PMENT AND Co - C R E AT Io N W ILL INCRE AS E . Wo R K W I L L B ECo ME Mo RE LIKE A G A M E . 41
Expect more life-like characters like Sam the Weatherman and smart avatars to personify information and interact with us. organizations will experiment with product development, communication, learning and new virtual worlds themselves. Virtual worlds will provide collaborative development and testing environments for enterprises and customers to create products together. Think scenarios and engaging with others to accomplish a specific goal.
Source: CSC
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soCial poWer
The power inherent in connected people surges.
As the Internet continues to evolve, it is revealing the power of our social side our inherent drive to connect with others and share. We have always had a social side, but the Internet is unleashing it in new ways with considerable force, showing that much can be accomplished by networked individuals with similar interests once they find each other. We see social power in action when new artists are discovered on MySpace, old friends are discovered on Facebook, experts from around the world contribute to the Encyclopedia of Life, or coordinated online shareholder activism ousts a CEo. In the 2008 U.S. presidential primary race, MySpace held the first-ever online pre-primary right before the January 3 Iowa caucuses that launched the official election season. Later in the campaign, news organizations were citing the number of people on MySpace and Facebook linked to the candidates. A new grass-roots political dialogue has emerged online. Why the sudden surge in social power? Didnt the Internet enable us to connect like never before? And then the browser? yes, but social network sites are making it even easier to connect. Barriers to entry to get on the Internet and find friends and colleagues, to become part of an interest group and work together are even lower now. As the Internet becomes more socialcentric, social sites are becoming the starting point or hub of our cyber experience. Enterprises are earnestly attempting to leverage social power, both internally among employees and externally in business strategies. New strategies harnessing social power put a premium on relationships and what others say and do, and tap the viral capability of social networks
as distribution channels for advertising, software applications and more.
SoCIAL NETWoRKS BECoME THE HUB

Social networks are becoming the hub of the Internet the place you start out at, like the portals of the 1990s. Sign on to your social network and do everything from there: e-mail; surf; make phone calls; share photos, music and ideas; keep in touch with friends;
social networks are becoming the hub of the Internet.
connect with business people. MySpace co-founder Chris De Wolfe declares that evolving online social destinations are laying the groundwork for the new social web which we believe is becoming infinitely more personal, more portable, and more collaborative.42 Figure 18 shows a timeline of the socialization of the Internet.
Figure 18 E Vo LUT Io N o F S o CIAL ME DIA o N T H E IN TER NET

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1995 - AOL got people onto the Internet
1999 - Yahoo organized it
2003 - Google made it searchable
2007 - Facebook made it social
Source: SocialMedia Networks
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Everything Gets Socialized
social power has revenue power, and that social networks those informal connections we create internally and externally must be cultivated and managed.
There are many signs of the emerging social Internet. Facebooks release of the Facebook Platform in May 2007 opened up Facebook to outside developers applications, and later that year Facebook opened its development platform to outside social networking sites. The latter came in the wake of Googles launch of openSocial in october 2007, to create an open platform for social networks on the Web (an open Web API). Applications written to the open Social standard can run on any social network supporting openSocial (e.g., orkut, LinkedIn, Hi5, Friendster, Ning, Salesforce.com), giving access to as many as 100 million users or more, in contrast to less than half that for Facebook at the time.
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social power has revenue power.
Leadership, Innovation, Revenue
organizations readily see the importance of social networks today, says Rob Cross, assistant professor at the University of Virginia and an expert in social network analysis. Ten years ago, he had to do a lot of explaining to executives about the importance of social networks. Today, he says, organizations just get it. People understand the importance of identifying and managing their informal social connections how the work really gets done, Cross says. organizations seek Crosss help with that to improve leadership, innovation, revenue growth and change in the organization. Having leaders think about their personal connections helps with succession planning and knowledge retention as people retire. Connecting the right experts, who may not be interacting, can often lead to new product ideas. Being able to make more informed decisions faster can save manufacturers millions in annual operations. For instance, using social network analysis, one multinational petrochemical company reported that a single network of 60 people contributed $5 million in savings a year by transferring best practices effectively within the company. In one situation, an oil well expected to be shut down for four days was up and running in two days because an engineer working on the problem was able to identify an expert to help him fix it, cutting in half the number of production days lost. Here, having an effective social network delivered a hard, measurable return to the company.46
In March 2008 Google joined with yahoo and Around the same time, Microsoft opened up
MySpace to create an independent non-profit openSocial Foundation.

44
Windows Live so users can share their contact lists (e.g., Hotmail address book) with five of the top social networks (Facebook, Bebo, LinkedIn, Tagged and Hi5).45 These moves aim to expand social networks and reinforce their prominence as hub destinations teeming with functionality and people of interest to you. In addition to social networks per se, applications outside the social network, from expense tracking to healthcare to fitness to music distribution, are becoming socialized. Expensr.com lets you track your personal expenses so you can see where your money is going and how your spending compares to others. you can invite friends and become part of different groups to compare against (e.g., men, women, engineers, those in their thirties, residents of Atlanta). Patientslikeme.com welcomes people with medical conditions who wish to share their experiences with similar patients, compare symptoms and treatments, and learn from others. AWare Technologies Healths FitAWare activity monitoring service taps social networking and friendly competition to encourage participation in corporate fitness programs. Surrge.com is a social site for music distribution, where fans are compensated for referring music to friends in the network (if their friends buy it), and communities of support are built around artists. Even an old standby, photo sharing, gets a decidedly community twist from Shutterfly. And leveraging social for altruistic purposes, TakingITGlobal.org is an online community that inspires young people to get involved in their local as well as global community.
So the social structure of the organization can be optimal, or it can hamper the companys ability to get things done. It is important to understand that social networks have a structure, and that structure can be modified to improve performance by increasing productive interactions and decreasing unproductive ones.
The Ties that Bind
PoWER To THE ENTERPRISE

Social power is not lost on the enterprise, either. What once may have been considered a soft topic relegated to HR is moving into mainstream business discourse as companies realize that
Social networks keep the strong ties strong, strengthen the weak ties, and leverage your colleagues ties. In social networks
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it is important to know a lot of people, but not necessarily well. Who your colleagues and friends know not necessarily who you know will be key, as youll be able to reach them much more easily than in the past. This recalls the idea of six degrees of separation: no matter how large the network gets, youre only six people away from anyone else. Links between network clusters are critical; you only need a few strong ties to reach the person you seek. Similarly, if a few strong ties break, many ties are lost. Social network analysis illustrates how when a few strong connections in a social network are severed, many more connections disappear. In Figure 19, the top figure shows that 12 scientists in a therapeutic area of a pharmaceutical company hold the bulk of the connections to academia. The bottom figure shows how the removal of the top four scientists cuts external connectivity by half (72 out of 142 interactions). Some 80 percent of the organizations interactions with academia are one-on-one, making management concerned not with whom the scientists are connected but with how to manage these critical sources of knowledge should key scientists leave.
Bringing Social to the Enterprise
called WorkBook, to enable organizations to use Facebook from behind the corporate firewall. This could be the salve corporations need to take a serious look at leveraging the popular social networking technology for collaboration.
Figure 19 CUT T ING A FE W T IE S CUTS DE E PLy
External Connectivity in Pharmaceutical research and development

Therapeutic Area Scientists in Company External Research Community
removal of Top 4 scientists reduces Connectivity

Therapeutic Area Scientists in Company External Research Community
To harness the power of social networks in the enterprise, companies are looking at sites like Facebook and MySpace to establish corporate groups. Its all about bringing social visibility and connection to stovepiped communities and content. The content and expertise already exist in the enterprise, but there is very limited insight into it, observes Paul Gustafson, director of CSCs Leading Edge Forum. However, there are security concerns with consumer sites since they operate on the public Internet. one company, WorkLight, offers a secure overlay for Facebook,
Social network analysis illustrates how when a few strong connections in a social network are severed, many more connections disappear. The top figure shows that 12 scientists in a therapeutic area of a pharmaceutical company hold the bulk of the connections to academia. The bottom figure shows how the removal of the top four scientists cuts external connectivity by half (72 out of 142 interactions). Some 80 percent of the organizations interactions with academia are one-on-one, making management concerned not with whom the scientists are connected but with how to manage these critical sources of knowledge should key scientists leave. Source: Rob Cross
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Another approach is to deploy social networking software specifically designed for the enterprise. Universal McCann, the global media communications agency, is using NewsGator Social Sites and Microsoft office SharePoint to improve communication and information flow across the agencys 90 offices in 66 countries. UM wanted its employees to have their fingers on the pulse of whats happening in their market segments and throughout the media industry. The solution integrates well with existing infrastructure and security protocols, important UM requirements that consumer-based solutions lacked.47 Social Sites features include tacitly built profiles, social network graphs, communities, advanced tagging and tag clouds, RSS feeds, subscriptions and management, notifications, and colleague tracking. (See sample profile in Figure 20.) It is easy to
see, for example, a colleagues recent blog posts and subscriptions, his expertise and communities of interest, documents he has contributed to or added, and how he tags content. Tags alone are a great clue for discovering others with similar interests. By tagging an item with a tag from a community (e.g., Alzheimers Research), that item can be found easily by community members or visitors. We are at the intersection of content and people, helping people discern whats most relevant to whom states J.B. Holston, CEo of NewsGator Technologies. The view of the person is central to social computing. NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory is experimenting with social networking software from Socialcast to retain and share knowledge as NASA employees retire and a new crop comes in.48 JPL is seizing on the social movement as a way to transfer knowledge to younger employees who are more familiar with social networking environments,49 and to promote collaboration across NASAs far-flung groups. To encourage technology adoption, JPL is using reverse mentoring, where a younger person mentors an older person on the technology. And behind the scenes, there will be many architectural considerations as social computing becomes a core part of the IT infrastructure.
Microblogging Makes Its Mark
As social networking spreads to the enterprise, microblogging, a form of social networking, is also making its mark in organizations. During the California wild fires in 2007, residents used Twitter, the leading microblogging service, to get up-tothe-minute details of the fires. Here a social networking tool for keeping in constant touch you give short, rapid-fire updates of a situation in real time via text messages from cell phones or PCs became a life-saving proposition. At least two residents and one news service, KPBS News, were publishing Twitter feeds that Twitter users could subscribe to for the latest on where the fires were, evacuation details, and supplies needed.50 There are more than 50,000 Twitter users, doubling every two to three weeks, according to obvious Corp, which launched Twitter in 2006.51
Figure 20
This NewsGator profile provides a tacit view of a
person through the content they create and the activities they perform in the organization. Source: NewsGator Technologies
Microblogging reminds us to never underestimate the power of the social network to wreak havoc instantly or, as writer and critic Howard Rheingold would say, to amplify the power of smart mobs. Twitterers protested a live interview of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg at the South by Southwest Interactive Conference
30
and Festival, demanding while the interview was taking place that the interviewer not cut Zuckerberg off or inject her own views. By the midway point, the crowd had grown vocally hostile, empowered by the ad-hoc Twitter network that had formed.52
reportage offered by news articles, microjournalism is a new media form that brings immediacy and, paradoxically, detail that traditional journalism does not. one veteran ad industry journalist twitters religiously on the nascent online ad industry, reporting colorful, behind-the-scenes observations and making a name for himself as a microblogger.53
Microblogging reminds us to never underestimate the power of the social network to wreak havoc instantly.
Microjournalism can be used to seed longer-form journalism by posting the short snippets to a blog or Web site, and it can be used to create community discussion by distributing those snippets to a community of friends, such as on Facebook.54 A counterpart to microblogging is microvideo, where short snippets of video by citizen journalists or journalists with digital
Microbloggings immediate communication ushers in a new age of microjournalism, in which journalists can recount an event second by second, in clipped 140-character bursts (the limit of a text message). While obviously not the same as the full
cameras i.e., not a full camera crew can be shared on youTube and other sites. (See Created by Me in New Media.) A new microblogging service, Zannel, lets you post video, text and photos via cell phone to share with friends on the Web.
PEEr-To-PEEr BusINEss ModELs
Heres a simple idea: match those with money to those who need it. Sounds like the basis of a social network and a business. This is what Zopa.com, Prosper.com and VirginMoneyUS.com do.
Zopa.com and Prosper.com take a peer-
and demand and the P2P nature of the Internet, which lends itself (if you will) to cutting out intermediaries. Using a slightly different model, VirginMoneyUS.com manages loans between relatives and friends people who already know each other. All three models speak to the same impulse: cut the bank out of the picture, which often makes for quicker, easier, more affordable access to capital. VirginMoneyUS.com (formerly CircleLending), launched in October 2007 and developed and hosted by CSC, is part of Richard Bransons Virgin empire.56 (Branson is predisposed to P2P lending; he got his start with a $10,000 loan from his aunt in 1972 to build a recording
studio, which eventually became Virgin Records.) VirginMoneyUS.com provides real estate, personal, education and business loans between family and friends, facilitating the transaction between borrower and lender. This includes providing legally-binding documents, structured repayment terms, electronic funds transfers, e-mail statements, a year-end tax summary, and ongoing customer support to both parties for the life of the loan. VirginMoneyUS.com facilitates loan renegotiations and offers flexibility. Our loans are a lot more flexible, so you can miss a payment now and then and you can restructure a loan, explains Asheesh Advani, CEO of Virgin Money USA. If
based, match-making approach to lending and borrowing money. The sites match those who have with those who need, without the overhead of a traditional financial institution and with more flexibility to extend credit. Although in general the sites limit the amount that can be borrowed, and typically there are more borrowers than lenders,
55
the
concept of peer-to-peer (P2P) lending makes sense given the laws of supply
31
PEEr-To-PEEr BusINEss ModELs
(continued)
you default, your parents arent going to foreclose on you. Theres going to be a grace period for you to get back on your feet. As a third party to the transaction, VirginMoneyUS.com manages the relationship and takes the awkwardness out of it. This is a new type of added value: a middle man that deals with the social intricacies. Zopa and Prosper also help individuals
lend and borrow without a bank via a Web platform, but most participants do not know each other personally.
two percentage points lower than what a bank would charge. P2P lending is in its infancy but is expected
The idea across all the P2P lending sites is that borrowers receive lower interest rates and lenders earn a better return than if dealing with traditional financial institutions. Advani says that loans among family and friends are typically at least
to grow. According to Celent, a research firm, P2P loans in 2007 were estimated to be $647 million, versus $2.5 trillion in U.S. consumer debt.57 That may be a drop in the bucket, but its bound to expand as social networks continue to grow.
VirginMoneyUS.com is a peer-to-peer lending site that capitalizes on peoples social networks, managing loans between family and friends. Source: VirginMoneyUS.com
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WHAT oTHERS SAy (oR Do) MATTERS

In an interconnected world, who you know, and more importantly, who your colleagues and friends know, matters. What they say or do has real bearing on you actions. That is why word-ofmouth advertising and accreditation systems have become so important online.
News Corporation.) The online destination extended the TV audience to the online community and provided a more interactive and lasting experience than a 30-second TV spot (which, incidentally, went for $2.7 million). The more lasting the experience, the more likely word-of-mouth will be generated. Although word-of-mouth is a growing component in marketing
I Bought It Based on Word-of-Mouth
campaigns, it is not fully understood online yet. The continued
Word-of-mouth advertising via social networks is taking off, magnified by the likes of Facebook, MySpace and consumergenerated media like blogs. What people say, recommend and buy online can influence more people more quickly than traditional word-of-mouth ever could. Keller Fay Group, a market research firm specializing in word-of-mouth, indicates that although 90 percent of word-ofmouth conversations take place offline (face-to-face or over the phone),58 brand marketers have become actively involved in online word-of-mouth marketing via new media, metrics and word-of-mouth specialists.59 Figure 21s traffic data shows why online word-of-mouth has such potential. According to Nielsen online, MySpace alone had over 60 million unique visitors in March 2008, and Facebook unique visitors skyrocketed 98 percent in March 2008 from the previous year.60 That is one reason why Super Bowl ads were officially placed on MySpace in 2008. The Super Bowl is the preeminent TV advertising event of the year in the United States. For the first time, the National Football League and the TV broadcaster, Fox Sports, included MySpace space as part of the advertising.
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Figure 21 To P 10 S o CIAL NETWo RKING SITES FoR MARCH 2008 ( U. S. , H o ME AND WoRK )
Site Myspace.com Facebook Classmates Online LinkedIn Windows Live Spaces Reunion.com AOL Hometown Club Penguin AOL Community Buzznet.com
Unique Audience (000) March 08 60,398 24,940 13,599 7,877 7,852 5,940 5,785 4,623 3,229 2,717
Unique Audience (000) March 07 55,937 12,622 12,991 1,878 9,076 5,217 9,246 3,482 4,640 1,822
% Change 8% 98% 5% 319% -13% 14% -37% 33% -30% 49%
Source: Nielsen Online
advancement of new word-of-mouth technologies is creating crosscurrents among alternative media strategies, as evidenced by Facebooks recent attempt to bridge the gap between social networking and WoM marketing, says Patrick Quinn, CEo of PQ Media.62 This is a reference to Facebooks botched launch of Beacon, which automatically shared Facebook members Web surfing activities with their friends and family a sort of forced word-of-mouth. Beacon looked promising but crossed the line in terms of privacy. Facebook did an about-face and made Beacon opt-in rather than opt-out after strong user protest. Clearly, word-of-mouth is a potent force to be used with care. (For more on privacy and transparency, see Information Transparency.)
(Fox Sports and MySpace are part of
what people say, recommend and buy online can influence more people more quickly than traditional word-of-mouth ever could.
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A site dedicated to word-of-mouth shopping is ThisNext.com. Members recommend products and services to each other, from jewelry to sports equipment to books to toys. Members can organize their recommendations into something akin to a playlist called a shopcast; you might have a shopcast for remodeling or cooking or golfing. People with similar interests can see what you recommend, or they can defer to the collective wisdom of the community. In the end, its all about giving and receiving advice in a trusted group.
How Do Others Rate Me?
ment industry had threatened to sue Digg.) Digg withdrew its ban (not clear if for better or worse that depends on your point of view about fair rights use).63 As Jean-Jacques Rousseau theorized in 1762, a perfect society would be controlled by the general will of its populace.64 But we are not perfect, and the will of the populace the social network may not always be right. Does the work-life balance lose balance? With the social network as the hub, personal and professional activities could be so intermingled that you cant relax or give quality time to either. Time management, and supporting tools, will be critical. Whither the 20-year-olds? When 20-somethings leave college, will they stay on Facebook? Does the social network phenomenon have longevity or is it primarily for a younger demographic? While certain sites may target a younger audience, the power and reach of social networks will continue to grow, especially in vertical social networks (i.e., those geared to specific groups like triathletes see Mosaic co-creator Marc Andreessens latest undertaking, ning.com). Though 20-somethings may migrate to a different platform, the drive to connect socially is inherently human and wont go away.
Social Power and Enterprise Responsibility
Formal rating systems that vouch for someone or something online take full advantage of the power of social networks. It all started with commercial ventures like Amazons friends and favorites and eBays reputation system rating sellers. People would rate products (Amazon) and their purchase experience (eBay) for the benefit of others and, ostensibly, to improve what or who was being rated. Now we have systems like those from Slashdot and Digg that take community-generated accreditation to a new level. In both systems, members rate articles on their quality, with the highest-rating entries rising to the top of the site. These systems provide context and relevance to information based on how people in a related group act. Although many benefit from such collective wisdom, there is always the risk that myopia could set in. The danger of an accreditation system, reputation system or social network in general is that people become insular and dont think outside the group. These systems act as filters, and good ideas may not always filter through. Related to this, the group may be inherently biased. Be careful to think for yourself and weigh your thoughts against those of the group. (For more on collective wisdom, see Smart(er) World.)
Thus, organizations need to explore and leverage social power for their benefit. organizations have a choice: (1) leverage consumer social networking sites, benefit from an immediate and already established employee network, and manage the risk with secure overlays and enterprise governance programs; (2) implement an internal corporate social network and eliminate many of the security risks inherent with consumer sites, but lose the power of the immediacy of the consumer sites and force people to maintain yet another social networking profile; or (3) follow a hybrid strategy that merges consumer and corporate social networks in ways useful to the individual. once the organization has decided which approach to pursue, it will need to establish a governance model to ensure responsible use of the social networking tools. This includes guidelines for appropriate use, transparency, proprietary and confidential information, regulatory compliance and legal discovery. Additionally, organizations will need to consider and create provisions to protect employee privacy. This is especially important for companies with employees in Europe, where privacy laws are stricter than in the United States. Finally, organizations consider-
WHERE Do WE Go FRoM HERE?

Though social networks are here to stay, there are some questions to consider: What happens if the social network turns against you? The outcome could go either way. The Beacon faux pas showed the power of the social network to change a Facebook policy (for the better, most would say). Digg.com was successfully challenged by its members when Digg tried to ban them from posting a software code that helps people illegally download certain HD DVD movies. (The entertain-
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LEA DI NG EDGE |FoRU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8
ing the use of social networking need to create a monitoring capability. Depending on how widespread use of the network is, this can range from a member of the security team reviewing content online to setting up tools to monitor performance and unauthorized use. But what exactly is unauthorized use? NewsGator believes organizations embarking on a social networking project need to get early buy-in on what will be accepted. once employees have an easy way to create content that is visible to all other employees, its too late to decide what will be done about an inappropriate blog post. This doesnt mean that companies should write 20-page appropriate use policies that they e-mail to every employee. In general, a couple of sentences should suffice to point out that (1) the tools are provided to make the company better and (2) employees should use their best judgment.
Another question is: Can employees import external groups into their corporate social network? you might want to create a bike to work community on the corporate site but invite some non-work friends to join. This raises issues about access for non-employees who have been added to a corporate group. The reality today is that work and personal life intertwine heavily for most employees. Many workers already use company systems like e-mail for non-work activities. This is going to happen with social networking systems too. The challenge is to strike a balance that satisfies employees without detracting from organizational performance. We will evolve towards some sort of return on attention to measure these initiatives, predicts J.B. Holston of NewsGator. Successful initiatives will be those where the newly-created social networks vibrate with activity and positive performance.
Virtual Worlds: The Next Social Frontier
As organizations test how to leverage social power among
organizations need to establish a governance model to ensure responsible use of social networking tools.
employees, partners and clients against the backdrop of global sourcing and distributed teams, they must also realize that social networks are a moving target. The next frontier for social networks, in terms of technology platform, is virtual worlds. Right now a Facebook or a MySpace is easier to join than a Second Life for instance, no high-resolution graphics hardware is required, no avatar needs to be created and manipulated. But virtual worlds are coming in force to the Internet (See Living in a New Reality), and being social in
Similarly, the management team should come to grips with the fun side of a social networking project. Will it be acceptable for users to form communities around non-work topics? Will this be encouraged? Will non-work content be emphasized or discouraged? Successful social networking projects always need some element of enjoyment for the end user. Deciding on the appropriate level and means is an important step to take consciously in the beginning of the project and adjust as needed over time. This has a lot to do with the management team getting comfortable with social networking. The hybrid strategy raises additional questions such as: Can employees add widgets (self-contained pieces of code) from outside the company to their behind-the-firewall personal pages? This can make the personal page more relevant and fun, but there are security and appropriate content considerations. Some companies are considering managing their own widget galleries (or relying on third parties to perform this function) to address these sorts of issues.
nature, they are the logical next step for social networks. organizations improving their social literacy must consider virtual worlds as well.
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inforMation transparenCy
What is observed by one will be known to all.
In May 2008 a stolen laptop was found and the criminals were caught when the owner realized she could operate the laptops camera remotely to see who was using it. The standard-issue camera, intended for business and recreational use, was key to identifying the suspects.65 The owner leveraged the power of the Internet, and the devices and applications connected to it, to gather information about the suspects and crack the case. Today there are countless examples of how information that was once not available is, and how that information is shedding light on previously opaque people, processes and things. Everything from price comparisons (farecast.com) to company organization charts (orgchart.forbes.com) to hidden home-buying costs (feedisclosure.com) to the dirtiest hotels (tripadvisor.com/dirtyhotels) is on the Web for public consumption. Even salaries, the most sacrosanct of information, are being revealed (glassdoor.com). As John Taylor, technology evangelist for the Educational Testing Service and former chief technology officer of DuPont, has said for years, There are no secrets in a wired society. Information transparency is largely driven by technology, but the law is also an important factor. Regulations like Sarbanesoxley mandate stronger financial disclosure and transparency of financial dealings. Democracies in general favor information transparency, whereas repressive governments with a history of censorship do not. Chinas Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 and Russias attempted coup in 1991 were not reported on state news outlets but reached the world nonetheless via the Internet. Tyranny made transparent is tyranny defeated. China and Russia have gone on to open up communications and their markets. Today we operate in a global marketplace, yet ironically, because of the Internet and information transparency, it is almost like were living in a small town, where everyone knows everything about everyone. What is observed by one will be known to all.
Who you are: fingerprints, iris scans, face recognition, voice analyzers, gait analyzers, typing analyzers, DNA tests, ID cards Where you are: GPS, cameras What you are doing: Twitter, MSN Messenger, AIM, ICQ, Sametime What you are working on: oDesk What you are holding: RFID tags, QR bar codes What you are sharing: social networks What others are collecting: data aggregator sites What others think: opinion Web sites Whats in your house: eBay Whats in the worlds knowledge repository: Google Whats the price: bot sites that compare prices Whats the code: open source Whats the application: Web Services, mash-ups What are my resources: peer-to-peer
Source: CSC
Such information transparency has powerful implications for individuals and organizations. More information more available is yielding new insights, visibility into enterprise operations is improving performance, expectations about information availability are rising, and software tools themselves are becoming more transparent.
MoRE INFoRMATIoN MoRE AVAILABLE

A vast collection of consumer applications and technologies, powered by the Internet, is delivering an information ecosystem that yields transparency about ourselves, our processes and our things. (See Figure 22.)
Figure 22 T H E INFo RMAT Io N E CoSySTEM yIE LDS T RANS PARE NCy
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Look at Web sites that provide detailed product information. For used car buyers, CARFAX provides vehicle history reports so buyers can know if a car or truck has been in an accident before they buy it. CARFAX generates reports on demand based on the vehicle identification number (VIN), drawing from its database of over five billion records from 20,000 data sources. Competitors are working with auto manufacturers to tag every part of the car at birth and relate it to the cars VIN, making the cars parts traceable through the cars life, as has been done with airplanes for years.
Just like these unfiltered opinions, stories by citizen journalists on CNNs iReport.com are unfiltered and unedited. If CNN uses an iReport, it vets the story first, stamps it on CNN, and shows the story on TV or CNN.com (e.g., the iReport page). But on iReport.com stories are available immediately when iReporters post them. iReport.com is about reporting all the news that doesnt make the news, and in so doing makes the world a little more transparent.
Seeing It Like It Is
Also making the world a little more transparent is research by University of Toronto professor Steve Mann, who for 30 years has been inventing, designing, building and wearing cyborglogging devices that capture ones every movement and conversation.
There are no secrets in a wired society.

John Taylor
Manns cyborglogger system (glogger for short) has more than 28,000 users who capture, record, index and share their lives online to see better and benefit from increased personal safety and reduced crime. Users can get cheaper life insurance rates because they can collect evidence of wrongdoing directed at
The result of this transparency is better maintenance and more confident buyers, who know the history of their cars parts and whether or not a part is an original. Currently, the only place build records exist is on the vehicle sticker at the dealership. Without that sticker, it is very difficult to recreate the cars history in terms of components and features. In the future, everything from parts, service records, photos of the car over time, and history of the cars owners (bachelor or family with two kids and a dog) could be tied to the VIN number and accessed via a social network site dedicated to cars. Flightstats.com gives on-time percentages for each plane flight you consider, as well as current flight status for particular flights, routes and airports. Data that existed but was unavailable is now readily available to consumers, who can access it flightby-flight as they prepare to buy tickets. Air travelers can make more informed ticket decisions and purchase their tickets from any number of sites that compare prices and find the lowest fares again, information that was not previously readily available including Farecast, Expedia, Travelocity and orbitz.
Telling It Like It Is
them not unlike using surveillance cameras and security locks in a store or home to reduce risk. Mann wears special electric glasses (his EyeTap invention) that capture his life as it happens. His wearable computer functions like a black box flight recorder in that it captures physiological readings such as ECG (electrocardiogram), EEG (electroencephalogram) and the like. Users can review their ECG data, see a spike, and check their cyborglogs to see what caused the spike. (Was the person talking to an in-law?) Everything the user sees and experiences can be captured and shared on the Internet for all to see (with controls). In addition to healthcare applications, Mann has experimented with having first responders use the technology (see the building Im going in and give me orders) and even shoppers (which bananas do you want?). It is not unlike the idea of retail stores having complete video footage of a persons shopping experience to mine for marketing purposes. Computer pioneer Gordon Bells digital archive at Microsoft Research is an example of a cyborglog that builds on Manns ideas of a life-long health record that could be combined with others life-long data for scientific, historical and other research. Shorter term and less all-encompassing, companies are using cameras to monitor and record daily activities of employees. oDesk Corporation, which assigns contract programmers, Web designers and project managers from India, Russia and around the world to jobs, allows employers to audit employee activities
on orbitz you can report what you actually see at the airport, such as flight delays and long security lines, in real time via your cell phone. This takes transparency to a new level because the airlines may not yet be reporting what you are experiencing. This man on the street feedback puts pressure on corporations to tell the truth and rectify problems quickly. Ditto for the countless consumer opinions on the Web.
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in real time via screen shots and Webcam shots that let you
see, literally, what your team members are working on. Employers
use this visibility to spot-check code, see when the contractor is working, and find out if the contractor is getting stuck on any tasks. Though on-the-job privacy will increasingly be a concern as more data about workers is collected, this level of transparency gives employers added confidence to hire and manage remote teams from a global workforce. All this comes against the backdrop of a proliferation of cameras on the Internet (recall the beginning of this chapter), as well as cameras in public spaces and on roads. These cameras are making people and processes more transparent and providing better public safety. In addition, sensors serving as cameras for the body are making our bodily processes more transparent. A continuous glucose monitoring system from Medtronic that uses a sensor under the skin reports glucose levels every five minutes, providing 100 times more information than conventional glucose monitoring and thus helping diabetics avoid high and low glucose levels.
66
Figure 23
Medtronics continuous glucose monitoring system,
called the Guardian REAL-Time System, uses a sensor under the skin and a transmitter (top) to send data every five minutes to a monitor (bottom). Diabetics can keep close track of their blood sugar level, avoiding high and low levels. Source: Medtronic, Inc.
(See Figure 23.) More information means better decision making because we can see what the body is doing in a timely manner.
FINdINg BALANCE: TrANsPArENCy VErsus PrIVACy
Transparency is here to stay, but transparency can be a double-edge sword, providing benefits at a cost. Individuals and organizations need to strike a balance between transparency and the following: Privacy: Constant surveillance and constant data collection may at some point cross the privacy line. We accept
sensors in hotel refrigerators that automatically collect precise information about our drinking habits. However, the National Basketball Association Players Association refused to allow TV broadcasters to put RFID chips in players sneakers, fearing this would reveal players slowing down over their careers and thus hamper contract
negotiations. We accept cameras in stores and on street corners. However, the U.S. government demanded that Google withdraw images from Google Street View that it took from public streets near U.S. military bases, claiming threats to national security.67 Privacy takes a subordinate role when its a matter of safety, whether against
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FINdINg BALANCE: TrANsPArENCy VErsus PrIVACy (continued)
terrorism or healthcare errors. If its a matter of saving my life versus my privacy, its an easier decision to want your information shared. Still, as computers collect sensitive information from us and even begin to decipher our emotions and what our words mean (see Smart(er) World), we know this information can be compromised or lost. Paul Saffo, director at the Institute for the Future, believes we will have to pay for what we want to keep private.68 Further, we will have to relinquish any expectations of privacy in public places, creating tension for government agencies and others who operate there.
Fraud: It may be true that on the Internet there are no secrets, but there may also be more lies. It could be that a certain amount of deception is necessary to maintain privacy in a transparent environment. Knowing too much: With transparency, it may be possible to know too much. For example, insurers may not cover you or employers may not hire you if they know you are sick or at risk. Thus people may avoid getting tested to keep their medical records clean (and insurers or employers unaware). In this case knowing too much can hurt, even though putting off knowing can hurt much more later.69
Managing your own transparency: This will be increasingly important but difficult. Companies search the Internet to vet prospective employees; candidates entering the workforce may find themselves trying to explain away embarrassing blogs, comments and Web site content created in their salad days. Internet content often remains long after the user has gone dormant or even closed an account, so beware of what you say on Facebook, MySpace and elsewhere.70 Overall, transparency is good more knowledge, more informed decisions, more innovation but you have to manage it and stay vigilant.
ENTERPRISE VISIBILITy: ILLUMINATING oPERATIoNS

In the future, everyone and everything will be tracked, from employees escaping a fire in the workplace, to equipment moving underground, to oil flowing through a pipeline, to widgets coming off the assembly line. Information will be presented visually, accurately, in (near) real time. Such enterprise visibility (transparency) will illuminate operations, bringing new levels of safety, efficiency and innovation to the organization. Enterprise visibility is the ability to see all the organizations assets: who and what, where and when. It includes monitoring,
In the future, everyone and everything will be tracked, from employees escaping a fire in the workplace, to equipment moving underground, to oil flowing through a pipeline, to widgets coming off the assembly line.
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CSC has created such a system to track employees both inside and outside, integrating RFID technology (inside tracking) and GPS technology (outside tracking). The system uses accurate 3D depictions of geospatially-located buildings and infrastructure (e.g., pipelines, transmission lines, rail lines), which you can fly over and through to locate employees in real time, be they inside conference rooms or outside taking a break. (See Figure 24.) The system, which also tracks assets, uses latitude, longitude and altitude to pinpoint a subjects location. Knowing where people and assets are is critical for safety, especially in dangerous or harsh environments. This is particularly true in the mining industry, where enterprise visibility of mobile equipment is sorely needed. In underground
Figure 24
This visualization shows exactly where employees are
mining, vehicles and people have been difficult to track. This is because technologies such as RFID have not worked well in subterranean areas. However, technology advances in RFID devices have now improved dramatically, enabling systems to be designed and developed that were not possible in the past. CSC has deployed an underground RFID system in a mine in Cannington, Australia for BHP Billiton, the worlds largest producer of silver and lead. The Underground Traffic Information System is the first system of its kind using RFID in an underground environment to inform vehicle operators about where nearby vehicles are moving in real time. (See Figure 25.) The system, which received the CSC Chairmans Award for Excellence in 2008, is helping BHPB eliminate underground traffic accidents, as well as determine more efficient routes and reduce bottlenecks. Above ground, vehicle safety is being addressed through a different transparency angle: track truckers using GPS and sensors on the truck to ensure that truckers dont drive longer than they should, which can result in fatigue and accidents. Truckers typically record their mileage manually and can cook the books to hide the fact that they have driven more hours than mandated by federal law. Digital surveillance eliminates this, making driver activity completely transparent.71 Visibility also improves efficiency. Imagine a 3D visualization of a hospital, where you can fly through the facility
(in their cubicles) using CSCs enterprise visibility real-time tracking technology. Part of the building has become transparent so you can see the people or things being tracked. The technology integrates RFID (for tracking the people inside) and GPS (for exterior location) into a single presentation platform. Source: CSC
tracking, identifying, classifying and assigning attributes to a person, vehicle, fixed asset or infrastructure whether stationary or moving. In general, enterprise visibility systems combine RFID, GPS and imagery to track assets visually in mapped locations.
Knowing Exactly Where You Are
Knowing where your employees are at all times is always a challenge. But what if you had a 3D digital model of your enterprise building or campus and could track employees using avatars?
Figure 25
In this underground silver, lead and zinc mine in Cannington, Australia, the
small truck on the right needs to get out of the way of a large front-end loader approaching. The truck needs to reverse until the front-end loader can safely pass. The inset shows a collision between a light vehicle and a haul truck. The difficult traffic conditions in the mine are being addressed with an RFID system that works underground and lets drivers know when vehicles are approaching. Since the installation of the system, designed by CSC, there have been no accidents recorded in the defined underground zones. Source: BHP Billiton
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and see all its assets. you can know when an ambulance is expected in the emergency room and the condition of the patient. you can have better information about organs being transplanted. CSC has introduced omniLocation to provide such enterprise visibility to clients. omniLocation is CSC-developed middleware that integrates location and sensor technology with Web Services to create a real world visualization of enterprise operations. It integrates location with relevant attributes about people, vehicles, assets and infrastructure, creating a fourdimensional visualization of the clients enterprise on a Web platform. This augmented reality combines data about physical business operations onto a real world visualization that is physically correct, accurately mapped, and continuously updated. omniLocation delivers an unprecedented level of insight into operations to improve safety, security and efficiency. It provides an interactive interface to the user and an operations communication tool to the client.
Visualization Tools Are Key
RISING EXPECTATIoNS ABoUT TRANSPARENCy

Indeed, once people have tasted transparency, they want more. Information can no longer be hidden. People are increasingly demanding that data be available to them, particularly public data. In the United States, there is a strong cry for federal agencies to make their data more transparent. A Princeton University study observes that federal agencies are falling behind in presenting data to the public.73 The study suggests that if agencies provided easier Web access to raw data, private companies and organizations could present the data in new ways.
once people have tasted transparency, they want more.
Visualization tools are key to enterprise visibility systems. Tools such as Google Maps, Google Earth, Google SketchUp and Google Sketchy Physics provide highly accurate, free maps. Further, the maps are getting more realistic. Google Earth visualizes the real world, not a virtual replica, notes Dan Munyan, chief technologist for CSCs Global Security Solutions Identity Labs. We are almost at near real-time updates with satellite imagery. In the past, updates were on the order of every 28 days; now they are just a few seconds. To showcase its enterprise visibility tracking technology, CSC provided real-time tracking for the 2008 Amgen Tour of California professional cycling race. Riders wore small RFID devices and were represented as moving avatars on a digital map, rendered via Google Maps or Google Earth. The Location object Field Tracking (LoFT) solution let users predict what would happen next since they had access to historical data as well as elevation and route data. The LoFT mash-up could be displayed on a handheld as well as a laptop or desktop.72 As enterprise visibility takes hold, it is moving from exotic and harsh environments to the mundane, such as monitoring passport queues at airports to ensure that enough border control agents are on hand. When technology is applied to ordinary jobs, its a sure sign its going mainstream.
For example, if the Environmental Protection Agency could make more raw data more accessible to the public, then interested parties, including consumers, could analyze and interpret the data in creative ways useful to them. Many interested parties already do this; for instance, USA Today taps Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) data to publish a national map of mercury emission sources.74 But if more data were more readily accessible, more analyses leading to improved understanding would be possible. The demand for better data transparency, along with problems such as natural disasters that require collaboration, heightened public awareness about protecting the environment, and the explosion of the Web, are driving EPA to seek new ways to serve its data to the public. To this end, EPA launched a National Dialogue on Access to Environmental Information,75 which sought input from citizens and organizations alike on what information they look for, how they use it, search terms and delivery formats. The American people have a real thirst for environmental information, says Molly oNeill, EPA chief information officer and assistant administrator for the office of Environmental Information. Thats a major reason we launched the National Dialogue. People expect to find information not in days or hours or minutes, but rather in seconds. Input from the National Dialogue, which ran from January through June 2008, will shape EPAs strategy for access to environmental information.
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LEA DI nG EDGE Foru M
Similarly, in healthcare people have been demanding better access to information so they can analyze it and make decisions. Making the healthcare system more transparent is an enormous challenge, but work is well underway.
DrIvInG TrAnSpArEncy: MASh-upS AnD MorE

As information becomes more transparent, the software tools themselves are becoming more transparent, from mash-ups to (further out) attentional software and intentional software.
TransparenT HealTHcare: THe DocTor and Your InformaTIon are In
As anyone who has been to the doctors office in the United States knows, U.S. healthcare is ripe for an IT transformation. Every time you fill out an intake form describing who you are, what medications you are on, and who your insurance carrier is, you are reminded of how paper-based the healthcare system still is. But healthcare is poised to become more transparent as longitudinal electronic health records, intelligence systems and improved connectivity help deliver better information for better decisions.
in U.S. hospitals as a result of medical errors.76 U.S. healthcare as a percentage of GNP continues to grow and exceeds that of any other industrialized country. (It was 16 percent in 2006 and estimated to be 16.6 percent in 2008 and 19.5 percent in 2017.77) Better information that makes patient and disease data more transparent and reduces administrative costs and time will help reverse these statistics.
the person changes jobs, insurance companies, doctors, hospitals or state of residence.
In 2004 President Bush issued an executive order that the majority of Americans have electronic health records by 2014. Two initiatives helping realize the goal by setting data standards are the Health Information Technology Standards Panel, at the government level, and SNOMED, a
Key technology enablers include:
privately-led taxonomy of some 300,000 medical terms. One state-of-the-art
Longitudinal Electronic Health Records Transparent healthcare is about improving the quality of care with better information for better decisions, saving lives and money, says Dr. Robert Wah, CSCs chief medical officer. An individuals personal health information must be standardized and integrated into an electronic health record that lasts a lifetime. This record would include information from doctor visits, hospital stays, pharmacies, lab tests and the It is estimated that there are anywhere from 44,000 to 98,000 deaths per year supporting medical and pharmacy claims. The record must remain active whether
prototype based on SNOMED terms is a visualization tool developed by IBM that maps a persons electronic health record data to a 3D image of the human body. The Analytic and Symbolic Mapper Engine, described as Google Earth for the body,78 brings dry medical data to life and makes it easy to understand.
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(continued)
At the same time, public record management services are emerging, including Google Health (in beta), Microsofts HealthVault, Revolution Health (backed by AOL co-founder Steve Case) and ActiveHealth Managements ActivePHR. These services are an effort to give people tools to manage their own health information, similar to how they manage their bank information online.
database of patient information and medical research and flags potential conflicts in an individuals medication or treatment. These examples underscore
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tying together islands of information. Although the NHIN will not be in place for years, four architecture prototpyes have been developed, including one by CSC. This is a major issue for Americans. In a 2008 survey commissioned by CSC, 70 percent of 1,000 Americans polled indicated they would be more likely to
the desperate need to correlate health information and make it available in a timely, comprehensive manner.
Connectivity The Nationwide Health Information Network (NHIN) is key to
vote for a presidential candidate who

Intelligence Systems Once you have the data, intelligence algorithms (rules) are needed to apply against the data to yield insights. Am I getting better or worse? Are two drugs interfering with each other? Resolution Health has created a rules engine that answers such questions. The engine generates communications for doctors and patients, as a result of its analysis, to warn the doctor that two drugs could interfere, for example, or to reinforce to the patient the importance of taking a medication by explaining the adverse consequences of not doing so. ActiveHealth Management has compiled a large
Stratifying patients by genotype lets researchers predict who will respond favorably (or not) to a drug, paving the way for personalized medicine based on an individuals specific, unique characteristics. Source: CSC
All Patients with same diagnosis
1
Non-responders and Toxic Responders
Remove
2
Treat
Responders and Patients Not Predisposed to Toxicity
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(continued)
supports the creation of a nationwide health information network.

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doctors can analyze detailed individual attributes to create a custom plan. Similarly, researchers will know the one molecule to
to reveal the complex underlying causes and outcomes of diseases can effective, personalized treatments be realized.
The ultimate goal of a transparent healthcare system is personalized medicine. Based on genetic information, family background and your DNA, care is customized for the individual. Your insulin dosage can be fine-tuned so there is no need to prick yourself every 20 minutes to check your blood sugar level. Instead of relying on three general criteria gender, weight and height to develop a treatment plan,
target with a new drug, maximizing effectiveness and thus minimizing side effects, or which patients will respond negatively to a new drug before it is administered. In the end, its about making the entire healthcare system smarter: patients, doctors, nurses, hospitals, suppliers, insurance companies, government payors, pharmaceutical To fully realize the vision of personalized medicine, longitudinal clinical patient data must be integrated with molecular data (e.g., genomics, proteomics). Only by seamlessly integrating these data types companies and life science researchers. Its a complex system, to be sure, but if the financial services and travel industries can become digitally transparent, so can healthcare. Its a matter of life and death.
Making the inner workings of applications, along with application information, more transparent leads to application innovation, most notably in the form of mash-ups. now software (applications) is open enough to be easily combined with other software (applications) to yield new applications. As shown in Figure 26, an entire mash-up ecosystem is emerging, where the modern Web functions as an operating system and the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Mash-ups can be created by novices; they do not require sophisticated programmers. Mash-ups disrupt the former culture that someone else knows best, giving individuals full freedom to represent information any way that pleases them, asserts paul Gustafson, director of cScs Leading Edge Forum. The result is potentially endless innovation. This innovation stems from a broader pool of non-technical people who can now create applications:
With mashups, much the same way blogging systems put Web publishing into the hands of millions of ordinary nontechnical people, the barrier to developing applications and turning creativity into innovation is so low that theres a vacuum into which an entire new class of developers will be sucked. Its already happening.81 Mashup Feed is reporting an average of three new mash-ups per day and total mash-ups at over 3,300.82 clever mash-ups have been created to show correlations between political contributions and votes cast (maplight.org), property values in your neighborhood (zillow.com) and automobile speed traps (njection.com/speedtrap), as shown in Figure 27. Then there are mapping mash-ups that incorporate pictures and video, such as viewr, a catalog of global real estate offerings. As one blogger wrote, why not add pictures and video of not just the property but the surrounding area, searchable
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Figure 26 T HE MAS H - U P E CoSyST E M: FLo URIS H ING IN AN INCRE AS ING Ly N URT URI N G E N V I R o N ME N T
HTML RIA Mobile Hybrid
Web
commerce site online application feed aggregator media storage
P
Enterprise of the Edge ublic
search engine
content site
Tolerance Continuum
discovery mash-up
aw int kwa ers r ect d ion
Database
Browser
content security
Private Services and Information
Mash-up Drivers:
service
En
p ter
ris
Great Content is Hard to Recreate Increasing Developer and User Skills The Benet of Building on the Shoulders of Giants Widespread Availability of Good Tools Lightweight Data and Service Models Easy to Reuse Services Right to Remix Spreading
SOA
Source: Dion Hinchcliffes Web 2.0 Blog, Social Computing Magazine. Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. http://web2.socialcomputingmagazine.com/the_web_20_mashup_ecosystem_ramps_up.htm
across city maps. Have commentary about the neighborhoods using wiki-fied pop-ups in the mash-up, and add social networking that allows residents and prospective buyers to chat.83 The possibilities are endless. one tool for creating mash-ups is Intel Mash Maker, for both novice and power users.84 others include MapBuilder,85 for mashing Google and yahoo maps, and Google Mashup Editor (in testing).86 In the enterprise, mash-ups are being used in a variety of areas, from government to e-commerce to telephony. For example, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency created a mash-up called overwatch to make intelligence gathering and analysis more timely. The overwatch platform, shown in Figure 28, enables end users to create a current, customized view of a particular situation based on multiple intelligence data sources. overwatch is browser-based and uses drag-and-drop techniques and bookmarks. This is far faster, more dynamic and more secure
than spending days pulling data from different sources into a presentation and e-mailing it.
Figure 27
This mash-up lets you find speed traps in your area. Speed traps appear as
yellow or red dots on the map, depending on severity level. When you hover your cursor over a speed trap, detailed information and advertising appear. you can also add speed traps to the map using a simple form Source: Njection
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DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS
Figure 28
This mash-up, called overwatch, gives U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency staffers the ability to create an informational
view of a situation quickly, right from their browser. Source: JackBe Corporation
overwatch was created using JackBe Corporations Presto enterprise mash-up software. Key benefits of the approach are empowering end users to assemble the data they need on the fly, and improving information sharing and real-time access to critical information. Mash-ups address the IT bottleneck by empowering business users to easily assemble their own situational applications in response to ever-changing business requirements, says Luis Derechin, CEo of JackBe. other applications of Presto include providing current inventory data to field sales people (Tupperware); creating a faster, more flexible shopping cart for e-commerce applications (Nutrisystem); and tracking research citations (Thomson Scientific). In addition, new on the scene for JackBe are mashlets, portable micro applications that present a face to enterprise mash-ups. The objective of mashlets is to share their mash-up results easily and safely; mashlets can be put into a blog or portal, sent to co-workers or customers, or viewed in a browser or nextgeneration mobile phone. The Internet was founded on transparency and we are feeling the effects, amplified by Web 2.0, mash-ups, ubiquitous connectivity, user self-service, and a culture that demands information. Savvy enterprises will leverage a data-operational strategy that puts information at the core of the business, even if the business is selling hard goods like cars. Data adds value and drives sales. As Internet technologies and cultural norms continue to evolve, there is no end in sight to transparency and the innovations it can yield.
savvy enterprises will leverage a data-operational strategy that puts information at the core of the business, even if the business is selling hard goods like cars. data adds value and drives sales.
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neW Wave of Waves

The sky is not the limit as spectrum goes digital.
To paraphrase Nobel-prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman, we are immersed in a sea of waves (mostly invisible) that surrounds us with a tremendous amount of potential information.87 This sea of waves, the electromagnetic spectrum, includes X-rays, visible light waves, heat waves, microwaves, radio waves and more, as shown in Figure 29. These waves present a cacophony of signals that we, using suitable receivers and transmitters, can somehow separate out and interpret. Amidst this cacophony, new hardware and software tools are refining our ability to control radio wave signals, whether cellular, broadcast TV, AM/FM radio or Wi-Fi. This is enabling us to reallocate spectrum to a host of new digital applications, and to one day do away with spectrum allocation entirely thanks to cognitive radio. Change is in the air. However, it will take time to revise U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regulations and business models that profit handsomely from the regulated spectrum bequeathed to us in 1912, a result of radio communication mishaps that contributed to the sinking of the Titanic.88 Change will be introduced gradually as some spectrum bands are reallocated and others are opened for general purpose rather than proprietary use. Eventually, the current contrivance of spectrum allocation will be shattered altogether. This is a key point. We are no longer held back by old technologies that led to the creation of spectrum allocation to avoid interference. New technologies render spectrum allocation obsolete. The game has changed; wireless is a new frontier that is completely up for grabs, with spectrum as valuable a resource today as oil was in the Industrial Age.
The game has changed; wireless is a new frontier that is completely up for grabs, with spectrum as valuable a resource today as oil was in the Industrial Age.
Figure 29 This depiction of electromagnetic spectrum shows several objects with size scales comparable to the wavelengths of the waves of different types of electromagnetic radiation. Note that the range of wavelengths varies by many orders of magnitude, while the waves shown in this cartoon do not. For example, visible light waves are typically 100 time shorter than infrared waves, not just slightly shorter as depicted pictorially. Source: NASAs Living With a Star program and the Center for Science Education at Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California at Berkeley.
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The race to stake out the wireless frontier is precipitating a spectrum battle between the established telcos; Internet service providers; and start-ups. As the battle plays out and the demand for wireless communications increases, wireless will become the norm and wired the exception. radio, cable and satellite broadcasters;
Figure 30 SPECTRUM oPENS UP IN THE 700MHz BAND (C BLoCK)
R ad io C B R FM ad R io ad io S ho rt w
av e N ex t A el ir / Tr ES affi M c R Sa C on te tr lli ol te
ad io
5-600MHz 700MHz
800MHz 900MHz 1200MHz
1900MHz
2400MHz
SPECTRUM oPENS UP
Imagine a day when your mobile phone works on any wireless network, not just your carriers network, or emergency responders can carry one radio that communicates with firefighters, police, federal emergency responders, the National Guard and others seamlessly and reliably. To say wireless will become the norm is one thing, but getting there having ubiquity and seamless connectivity is quite another. The wireless arena, unlike the Internet, is not based on one unifying protocol and universal access but rather
A B CDE
AWS
AWS UWB
Unused white space is available for low-power, unlicensed applications.
Sprint AT&T Mobility
Verizon Wireless 700 MHz Wi-Fi
T-Mobile
a hodge-podge of incompatible protocols (e.g., TDMA, CDMA, HSDPA, GSM, GPRS, EVDo, UWB, Wi-Fi, WiMAX), proprietary frequency bands (i.e., licensed and unlicensed spectrum), and access restrictions. Slowly this is changing as spectrum opens up and the traditional licensing models fall by the wayside. The 700 MHz auction is a major step towards opening up spectrum and introducing innovative business models. The FCC has called the 700 MHz band beachfront property, a valuable scarce resource providing a foundation for building innovative new products and services.89
The 700 MHz band, originally assigned to analog TV, will be freed up as a result of the U.S. transition to digital TV (which will be completed in 2009). The 700 MHz bands five blocks (A-E), depicted in Figure 30, were auctioned off for a mix of commercial and public safety uses, both proprietary and open. The big winners were Verizon Wireless, which spent roughly $9.4 billion for C-, B- and A-block licenses, and AT&T Mobility, which spent $6.6 billion for B-block licenses.90 In total, the auction earned $20 billion.91 During the time leading up to the March 2008 auction, the C block received the most attention because it contained open access elements, added at the urging of Google (which did not pick up any licenses), that opened the door to companies other than traditional phone companies to win licenses and create a host of new wireless services. Verizon Wireless predicts a new wave of consumer electronics and applications using Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology in its C block, which must by definition be open to compatible applications and devices.92 (LTE is discussed in The Race Towards Broader Coverage and Speed.)
The FCC has called the 700 Mhz band beachfront property, a valuable scarce resource providing a foundation for building innovative new products and services.
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to Sp lu ac et e C o Ph ord oth le on e ss W U SB B
3.1 10.6GHz
A M
ro un d
FCC auctions off the C Block for $20 billion for a new open access industry.
Source: CSC
An early sign of innovation in the 700 MHz band is 700 MHz Wi-Fi. With Wi-Fi operating in an unlicensed band, companies that already have hotspots could become super hotspots, delivering an on-ramp to the Internet and providing a host of new innovations and disruptions in the spirit of the open C block. This on-ramp takes consumers to an endless array of applications, in contrast to the single applications of the licensed bands (e.g., TV, radio, voice). The model shifts from licensed to unlicensed, from proprietary to open. In addition, 700 MHz Wi-Fi sets up an alternative to PCS or WiMAX for a nationwide wireless network. Because it operates at a lower frequency (700 MHz in contrast to 2.4-5 GHz for licensed Wi-Fi), 700 MHz Wi-Fi has broader reach, meaning fewer towers are required. Estimates put the price of building a national Wi-Fi network at $2 billion, in contrast to $4 billion for a national 1900 MHz PCS network and $5 billion for a WiMAX network.93 (Wi-Fi versus WiMAX is primarily about speed/ distance versus cost, with Wi-Fi being slower and shorter range but less expensive to deploy.) Though the prospect of a nationwide wireless network, another sign of spectrum opening up, is many years away, vendors are opening up in the meantime. Verizon Wireless has opened its network to other devices and applications. Google is developing an open platform for mobile phones (Android) in conjunction
with the open Handset Alliance it is leading for third-party applications. Even Apple opened its iPhone platform to outside developers, enabling capabilities such as Wi-Fi telephony. The opening up of the platform by Apple is very strategic, for it sets up more potential disruptions for the carriers and device manufacturers, who need to strike a balance in deciding which wave to ride at any one time. Another area of spectrum ripe for opening up is TV white space, the portion of unused spectrum that separates licensed TV bands. In the past, white space served as a buffer to prevent interference, but with todays transmitters and receivers that is no longer needed. Having the additional spectrum available for unlicensed devices would be a major win for innovation. The FCC is deciding whether and how to free up this vacant spectrum, considered a golden technological opportunity for broadband services for those without broadband and for consumer applications such as smart homes and mobile TV.94 Google has given suggestions to the FCC for how white space could be deployed for unlicensed use, particularly mobile Web access.95 Anything that increases Web traffic improves Googles position as an advertising platform. However, open spectrum does have its challenges. Already in multi-tenant buildings, there are complaints about the performance of Wi-Fi due to access point overlap and
whIThEr ThE rAdIo?
With wireless Internet connectivity providing more flexibility and choice, it is easy to see that traditional AM/FM radio will eventually become obsolete. Just as wireless Internet connectivity breaks the cellular juggernaut, it also breaks the radio juggernaut, dashing the value once inherent in having a proprietary hold on spectrum. Once you can get radio over the Internet, there is no need to have allocated radio spectrum
and no need to tune into a radio stations frequency. Just navigate to the station you want via your mobile or laptop. Radio over the Internet, such as through LastFM or Internet radio streaming, gives you more choices and control, disrupting traditional radio the way music and TV are being disrupted. (See New Media.) With the new iPhone 3G, Internet radio streaming hits a growing population.
The Chumby, a Wi-Fi gadget that looks like an alarm clock, comes with Internet radio too. So its not just Internet radio per se but all the devices that can tune into Internet radio that will make traditional radio obsolete. Thus we have conditions setting up the demise of radio as we know it: new networks accessible by new devices that put radio in new places.
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a passenger on a ship, you would use Wi-Fi at port, 3G around the coast, and satellite at sea. or, say you are a passenger on a high-speed Thalys train in Europe, which uses a different way to provide connectivity. If you are on a Thalys train going from Paris to Brussels, Amsterdam or cologne, you can enjoy broadband Internet connectivity for the entire duration of the journey at an average cruise speed of 300 kilometers per hour (187 miles per hour). cSc helped Thalys choose the provider, negotiate, and manage the implementation of the wireless service. This allowed Thalys International to become the first European commercial passenger rail service provider to offer passengers Internet connectivity using Wi-Fi, satellite and cellular technologies. Figure 32 shows the high-level design. bandwidth sharing. (However, getting away from microwave ovens will no doubt enhance the performance of these new networks!) The solution provides continuous coverage across France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands, where Thalys operates. currently the system has been deployed on three train sets, with plans for full deployment by 2009. For Thalys, which serves over six million passengers per year, Internet connectivity is a differentiator that its competitors (other trains and airlines) do not offer yet, though efforts are underway. The Thalys project won the cSc chairmans Award for Excellence in 2008. on planes, Internet connectivity while in flight is becoming a reality. Aircell and onAir offer Wi-Fi connectivity in the cabin, with service expected to start on some U.S. airlines (e.g., American Airlines, Virgin America) in 200896 and movement
Figure 31
The PepWave MAX mobile router works with Wi-Fi,
3G, WiMAX and other networks to provide seamless, high-speed connectivity on cars, buses, trains and boats. Source: PepWave
WIRELESS IN NEW PLAcES

As spectrum opens up and wireless eventually becomes the norm, it is important to see where Wi-Fi and other wireless technologies are making inroads in terms of new applications and new techniques.
Trains and Planes: Connecting in Motion
Trains, planes and automobiles are getting online with Wi-Fi. In the past, connections to the Internet have been difficult if not impossible in moving vehicles. But advances in roaming and network access are making it possible to provide continuous coverage. PePWave TrainFi, housed in a ruggedized enclosure, is a Wi-Fi modem for vehicles, trains and other public transportation systems. With its advanced algorithms, it is able to provide a stable Wi-Fi connection in a moving vehicle at speeds up to 75 miles per hour, enabling streaming video and data on high-speed transit systems. The PepWave MAX mobile router, shown in Figure 31, allows for seamless failover across Wi-Fi, WiMAX, 3G, satellite and other networks. The MAX mobile router, to be announced in fall 2008, maintains connectivity over vast geographic areas; it is designed for use in cars, buses, trains and boats. For example, if you are
Figure 32
Internet access from a moving, high-speed Thalys International train works as follows:
From the passengers laptop, data is transmitted to one of two hotspots in the passengers train car, and on to a central server before transmission through a rooftop antenna, which connects to a satellite 36,000 kilometers above or to 3G ground networks. Source: CSC
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ExTENdINg CoVErAgE AT hoME: CoMBININg CELLuLAr ANd wI-FI
As more phone calls are made via wireless rather than wireline phones, cellular carriers are competing to grab hold of the sizeable home zone market by employing dual-mode handset services and femto-based systems in the home. Among the carriers in the game is T-Mobile, which has launched HotSpot @Home, a service that offers unlimited calling via dual-mode (Wi-Fi and cellular) handsets using customers home WLANs. Dual mode gets us one step closer to the vision of open access, shifts traffic off the cellular network, and leverages infrastructure and service already in use by the customer at home. Sprint is testing the waters with its Airave femtocell, and AT&T is exploring femtocells as well. Femtocells are an alternative way to improve coverage at home. Consumers set up a femtocell, essentially a mini cell tower, in the house. The femtocell provides coverage where existing cell coverage is poor. Unlike dual-mode services, which require a special handset, femtocells work with existing cellular handsets. (Cable companies may also get into the act, using WiMAX femtocells to provide wireless service to consumers.) There is some serious money at stake. According to a study by Infonetics Research, the worldwide fixed-mobile convergence market, including dual-mode phones,
unlicensed mobile access (UMA) network controllers and multi-access convergence gateways, will climb to $46.3 billion by 2010.97 Nokia is currently the leading dualmode handset manufacturer, followed by HTC and Sony Ericsson.98 For those who want to dispense with cellular altogether, there are Wi-Fi only phones powered by services from companies like Vonage. Callers operate these phones over Wi-Fi networks at home, in the office or at hotspots. With voice as just another data type on the Internet, service is much less expensive than cellular (or wireline) and comes with features youd expect (voice mail, caller ID, call waiting, caller forwarding). The trick is to make Wi-Fi calling as reliable and accepted as cellular, and in so doing upstage cellular (and wireline). Cell phone disruptions are also coming from services such as fring and Ribbit. Fring is a mobile VoIP service that lets users talk, chat and interact with each other from their mobile phones using Internet connectivity, not expensive cell phone minutes, without boundaries and regardless of device or telco service. Fring also offers file transfer (limited) and supports multiple languages. Ribbit (acquired by BT in July 2008) is an open platform that bridges the worlds of cellular and the Web using VoIP, essentially obliterating the voice stovepipe. You can
make and take calls from your cell phone or browser and manage voicemail as text, making it searchable, sharable and actionable. Ribbits Caller ID 2.0 feature lets you see a Web page of information about a caller before you take the call, including his latest blog posts, photos, videos, and past calls to you (which you can listen to or read as text). The social Web meets telephony. As consumers experience disruption with the mobile phone first hand, it drives home the power of spectrum while also presenting new platforms and possibilities that take us well beyond what dial tone delivered in the past. Of note: Our history with bandwidth suggests that as networks get faster, services that are linear in growth (versus exponential) become priced at a flat fee rather than a per-minute fee, as has happened with long distance wireline. If this is true, the advent of higherspeed wireless will rapidly erode the need to meter wireless voice minutes, says Phil Edholm, enterprise chief strategy officer and vice president of network architecture at Nortel. This would substantially reduce the need to use multiple networks to lower costs, as with dual mode services. So as dual mode disrupts, it too could one day be disrupted.
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Figure 33 M o B I L E B R oADB A N D T E C H No Lo Gy PAT H
and WiMAX deliver high speeds and more seamless connectivity (i.e., less roaming) through broader reach. The path that operators choose regarding LTE and
Cellular Operators
CDMA GSM UMTS/ HSPA
4G
LTE
WiMAX is shown in Figure 33. LTE is a counterstrike to WiMAX for large, metro area networks. WiMAX requires new infrastructure but has broad range. Feeling threatened, the GSM camp developed LTE in response. Although not as powerful as WiMAX, LTE works on existing GSM infrastructure so is less expensive to roll out. LTE will succeed HSDPA and can be used with existing GSM networks. Figure 34 depicts LTE and WiMAX on their respective paths to 4G networks. WiMAX is expected to accommodate
Source: Nortel
Greeneld Licenses, New Entrants, Attackers

WiMAX Trials LTE Demos 2007
WiMAX
OFDM/ MIMO + Flat IP Network
spectrum & regulatory considerations Rollout Trials Early Adopters Rollout
2008
2009
2010
Evolved Edge: Bridge for GSM operators to leapfrog to LTE WiMAX: Differentiated offering for new entrants LTE: Natural evolution path for 2G/3G operators
fixed, nomadic, portable and mobile wireless broadband connectivity without the need for a direct line-of-sight to a base
already underway in Europe, Asia and Australia. Aircell uses cellular and onAir uses satellite technology to beam signals to the plane, which becomes a hotspot inside the cabin. (Satellite technology is required for coverage on trans-oceanic flights.) A major issue, at least in the U.S., is whether to allow voice calls or not. A central feature of the onAir service is that the crew can disable the voice feature at any time. Will social etiquette win out? Probably not in Europe, at least, where airlines (e.g., Air France, Ryanair) are already testing and offering in-flight cell phone service. (Meanwhile, note that U.S. airlines have removed their in-flight phones.) In any event, Wi-Fi in flight (with or without voice) is a new revenue opportunity for the airlines, who are hurting over sky-high fuel prices. other players include Row 44, whose Wi-Fi service has been tested by Alaska Airlines,99 and AeroMobile, offering service on Dubai-based Emirates and Qantas Airways (trial).100
The Race Towards Broader Coverage and Speed
les s
Device Movement
station, similar to the traditional cellular phone network. IEEE standards 802.16-2004, for fixed wireless, and 802.16e-2005, for mobile wireless, have been ratified and interoperable products are now emerging from many vendors. Wireless operator Xanadoo launched one of the first commercial mobile WiMAX networks
Figure 34 LT E AND WiMAX ARE THE TWo MA J o R PAT H S To 4 G NE T Wo RKS

All IP and Mobile
4G
3G 3.5G
HSDPA HSUPA
LTE
NexGen Wi-Fi 802.11n
2G
Cell ular
CDMA GSM TDMA
2.5G
GPRS EDGE
CDMA2000 W-CDMA 1xEV-DO Rev. A
Wi-Fi at 700 Mhz 802.11a/b/g/n WiMAX 802.16-2004 Wi-Fi 802.11a/g
Mobile WiMAX 802.16e/802.16-2005

Wi-Fi 802.11b
ire W
In contrast to the more limited bandwidth and range of Wi-Fi, technologies like LTE
>14.4 Kbps
64-144 Kkbps
384 Kbps3 Mbps
10-20 Mbps
25-30 Mbps
70 Mbps
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Data Rates
Source: CSC
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(802.16e) in North America in April 2008. Juniper Research forecasts that mobile WiMAX will take off from 2010-2013, topping 80 million subscribers worldwide by then.
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combined with wireless USB provides even more flexibility and reliability. As short-range wireless connections take off, we can get rid of most of those unsightly wires in our offices and homes.
WiMAX could start making its move when Intel, along with partners Sprint Nextel and Clearwire, begins field tests of WiMAX networks and technology in 2008.
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A really interesting potential of UWB is the ability to have peripherals become public and shared in a private-use sense. With UWB, the hotel display can become the large display for a PDA, or every seat at a conference table can have a display that becomes the display for the seated individual. This opens the door to carrying intelligence and using displays where needed, versus todays model of carrying different devices and intelligence for different displays (e.g., PCs, PDAs). (See Platform Makeover.)
Intel plans to
include both WiMAX and Wi-Fi in its next chipset for laptops (Centrino 2), which was introduced in July 2008; the company released a dedicated WiMAX chipset (Intel WiMAX Connection 2250) in 2006. Intel hopes WiMAX becomes just as popular as Wi-Fi and a viable alternative to 4G mobile phone networks.103 While some are moving to LTE, others say it is more cost effective to upgrade Wi-Fi to approximate WiMAX functionality that is good enough. This approach would not require deploying new infrastructure, as with WiMAX; however, Wi-Fi, with a range of approximately 300 feet, was never intended to handle seamless hand-offs between cells, which is a unique feature of WiMAX. Despite these challenges and some false starts, WiMAX plans are underway. In May 2008, a partnership was announced among Sprint, Clearwire, Comcast, Time Warner, Google and Intel to create a new WiMAX company bearing the Clearwire name. The partnership is unique in that it gives cable operators, an Internet company and a chip maker a stake in shaping the future of mobile wireless Internet access.104 As the new Clearwire competes with Verizon Wireless and AT&T, which are just beginning their plans for next-generation wireless networks, the battle for wireless broadband is on. Indeed, another WiMAX competitor is NextWave, whose MXtv is a mobile multicast and broadcast technology for WiMAX operators. Essentially, MXtv is a way for WiMAX operators to provide TV and other video services. Alactel-Lucent has signed on.105
Ultrawideband: Connecting Close In
A really interesting potential of ultrawideband is the ability to have peripherals become public and shared in a private-use sense.
We may also be able to see through walls. A unique hand-held radar system designed by Camero uses UWB to detect hidden objects on the other side of a wall and display them as images on screen. Designed for military and search and rescue operations, the system has been sold to armies and police forces around the world, and is hoped to become a general-issue tool for all military units one day, just the way night vision technology has.107 (If this technology reaches the enterprise, imagine being able to see if someone is in the office if the door is closed, and whether they are alone or with someone else. Surely there is a business in creating jamming equipment for this!)
SPECTRUM SHATTERS CoMPLETELy

Eventually, we will see a complete breakdown of spectrum as software defined radio, and its child, cognitive radio, take hold and spectrum allocation is shattered. Use the entire spectrum and let software find the signals you need. The result: a dynamic and completely digital spectrum. The vision of a dynamic digital spectrum is possible because we are no longer bound by old technology. Dividing up and allocating spectrum, and developing separate infrastructures to utilize specific assigned frequencies, was originally done
Ultrawideband offers the promise of being ultra-connected at close range. UWB is a very low-power technology that sends signals in quick bursts across a wide spectrum of frequencies. It is useful indoors, such as for connecting home networks, entertainment centers, consumer electronics and PC peripherals. The first UWB-enabled notebook PCs shipped in late 2007. PC peripherals will show up in 2008, followed by consumer electronics and applications in volume in 2010, and over 400 million UWB-enabled devices shipped in 2011.106 UWB
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use the entire spectrum and let software find the signals you need.
to avoid signal interference. Today this approach is largely an anachronism given the hardware and software advances of the last 50 years, which have yielded extremely powerful, miniature processors capable of running sophisticated wave transformation algorithms in real time i.e., extracting the signals, and only those signals, you need. Physics does not dictate that we divide up the spectrum to avoid interference; waves do not generally interfere with each other. Rather, up until recently, our radio technology was incapable of separating out the waves of interest i.e., the signal from the noise so we legislated frequency separation. But this is no longer necessary. Software defined radio (SDR) enables moving to different frequencies and modulations via software, and cognitive radio allows negotiating spectrum on the fly as needed. Today, we must be willing to embrace the new technology of SDR, reverse spectrum regulation, and resolve turf wars that impede progress in the vast radio space. SDR is a major game-changer, on par with the telephone, automobile and personal computer.108
arriving at the antenna slightly out of phase with the original signal was overcome by increasing the power of the broadcasting node so that the stronger, unaltered original signal could be distinguished from its wayward siblings. SDRs can identify out-of-phase rogue waves and shift them into phase, thereby increasing the signal strength of the direct transmission while reducing the power required of the transmitter. Interference is no longer a liability but actually a redundant signal asset called multi-path gain.
GoVERNMENT S Ro LE (Or Challenges Facing Software Defined Radio)
Despite the promise of software defined radio and cognitive radio, the government plays a pivotal role in their success: Broadcast license holders have little incentive to support the opening of the electromagnetic spectrum for general use. The government will need to get involved to undo its allocation solution of the past. The governments prohibition of the use of open source code109 in the development of SDR will undoubtedly slow the advancement of this groundbreaking technology. Regulators dont understand SDR technology well enough to regulate it well.
software defined radio is a major game-changer, on par with the telephone, automobile and personal computer.
Perhaps the ultimate in SDR is when devices can negotiate spectrum intelligently as needed. A cognitive radio would detect
Inside Software Defined Radio
user needs based on context and provide the appropriate wireless service, at the lowest level of power consumption, automatically adjusting transmission and reception parameters. Cognitive radio can detect unused spectrum and share it without harmful interference to others, as well as capture the best spectrum to meet quality-of-service requirements. Some say the technologies needed for cognitive radio already exist. They include a handset being able to locate itself with GPS, sense and analyze nearby spectrum, know the date and time, detect patterns and biometric information from users, and contain and manage a database of nations and regulations. The
With SDR, transmitters comprising small, powerful computer chips can use a slew of software algorithms to carve information into a wave that can be picked out by a similarly-equipped receiver, despite many other wave broadcasts in the same frequency. The receiver sports multiple antennae to catch all wave types and corresponding algorithms to analyze them, and selects and transforms the waves of interest. Additionally, interference becomes a plus. In the past, multi-path interference from the reflection and refraction of transmitted waves bouncing off the atmosphere, mountains or buildings and
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biggest challenge will be designing clever algorithms that will take all that information and make decisions about where in the spectrum to operate at any given moment. have cognitive features.
111 110
Now people in different frequency bands can communicate using a single portable radio, not multiple radios for different bands. The importance of seamless mobile communications was driven home by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 and natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina.116
Spacecraft Communications: An Industry in Transition
Many
experts believe that a typical cell phone in 10 or 20 years will
JTRS: Using Software Defined Radio to Crack the Spectrum
SDR is already being put into play by the military. The Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) is a multi-billion dollar program of the U.S. Department of Defense that is developing an SDR for war fighter communications. The SDR will support swappable hardware components and software upgrades for a family of 180,000 interoperable devices, which will eventually replace the 750,000 tactical radios carried by soldiers or mounted on vehicles, aircraft and ships.
112
SDR is being used in space as well. Spacecraft designers have long had to pay special attention to radio communications. The space environment imposes many difficult constraints. Some of them, such as low power, low bandwidth, noise, mobility, and multiple base stations, are shared by earthbound applications, while others, such as potentially long propagation delays, are unique to space. over the years, many specialized waveforms and protocols have been developed for space. Although some have been standardized by the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS), the large number of incompatible options in the standards has resulted in virtually all space missions being unique and unable to interoperate. This ends up requiring one-off designs for flight systems, and dedicated ground systems for each mission. Meanwhile, successful commercial solutions to many of these constraints have become widely deployed. Currently, NASA is moving towards using the Internet Protocol (IP) to improve interoperability among its spacecraft. This Internet-in-Space transition has been extremely disruptive to the old guard of the worlds civil space agencies, but must ultimately succeed. CSCs operating Missions as Nodes on the Internet (oMNI) project has been the world leader in this area for nine years, and demonstrated on-orbit117 IP spacecraft communications in early 2000. But IP is only part of the interoperability equation. The protocol must still be carried over a host of different frequencies and waveforms. SDRs are making inroads on spacecraft. SDRs are starting to be used to implement the radio modem technologies used to send and receive spacecraft telemetry and commands. Motorolas fourth generation spacecraft transceiver is an SDR. This allows for not only flexible flight radio designs, but also the possibility of on-orbit modification of the waveforms used, in response to evolving standards and interoperability requirements. In addition, SDRs at groundstations could be reprogrammed between contacts (communications with the spacecraft) for different waveforms, allowing one groundstation to be easily shared between multiple missions. A CSC technology grant titled Software Defined Radio describes the construction of a prototype SDR-based
The goal is to provide real-time
voice, data, image and video communications to commanders and soldiers to improve situational awareness, enabling troops on the move to make decisions quickly. JTRS uses a new IP-based wideband networking waveform (WNW). The waveform enables ad hoc mobile connectivity across the battle space and different service branches, and is compatible with existing waveforms used by the DoD. This mobile connected battlefield is in contrast to having stovepiped radios and an Internet based at fixed sites.113 More than 100 JTRS Ground Mobile Radios (GMR) are being tested across the United States. The GMR system has four channels that can be configured with multiple simultaneous waveforms. As the JTRS GMR program director at Boeing, which is building the initial units, put it, Multiple legacy radios would be needed to deliver the same throughput capability of just one WNW channel on the GMR system, significantly increasing capacity to deliver critical information to the warfighter.
114
JTRS is considered a pivotal program because current radio systems lack interoperability across the militarys wide variety of environments, from backpacks to ships, and have insufficient bandwidth to meet present and future communication needs. With JTRS, a single radio can support different standards, frequencies, bandwidths and waveforms via software controls that are adapted to the mission and intended platform.
115
JTRS uses SDR to crack the confines of the spectrum not only for warfighters but also for public safety personnel. In March 2008 Thales Communications introduced the first SDR based on JTRS for U.S. government agencies and first responders.
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groundstation for the U.S. Naval Academys MidStar-1 Spacecraft that can be easily modified for use by NASAs CHIPSat spacecraft.
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options with travel times based on the speeds and locations of other Dash drivers at the moment, coupled with historic road data for every time and day of the year. A persons driving data is transmitted over the Dash network to nearby Dash drivers, providing traffic updates based on real-time traffic flow. The more drivers participating in the Dash network, the more accurate the traffic reports are. Dash uses GPS, GPRS and Wi-Fi (for connecting to the Internet). Another example of a viral network is the one Laptop Per Child computer, the Xo. The Xo creates a self-organizing mesh network with other Xos, and the network strengthens as Xos are added. (See Figure 35.) The network deliberately extends connectivity to places that were previously unconnected, such as schools and homes in Africa.
SDRs on spacecraft are a kind of Trojan Horse that have the potential to completely disrupt the status quo of civil space agencies. Ultimately, digital improvements in spectrum utilization, and the SDRs reprogrammability, will mean that spacecraft can be modified after the fact to use widely deployed commercial waveforms and protocols, instead of special for space ones, to meet their requirements easily and cheaply while enjoying almost universal interoperability.
sdrs on spacecraft are a kind of Trojan horse that have the potential to completely disrupt the status quo of civil space agencies.
Elsewhere in the world, the notion of a grand Wi-Fi mesh network linking Wi-Fi hotspots around the world is talking hold. FoN, the Madrid-based company creating this network, signed a deal with British Telecom in october 2007 to create BT FoN, a joint venture, to create the worlds largest Wi-Fi community. Users sign up by offering their own home or office Wi-Fi hotspot as part of the community, and in return get free (or nearly free) access to all participating hotspots worldwide. Google is a FoN
Game Changer: Viral Radio
investor, lending credence to the initiative. As noted in a Wi-Fi Planet article, While Earthlink and other vendors struggle to
Having finer control of waves using SDR has led to a rethinking of not only spectrum but radio infrastructure. Whereas traditional radio is point-to-point or point-to-multipoint, the advanced capabilities of SDR (transmitters and receivers), along with their reduced size and cost, have led to a completely new communications architecture dubbed viral radio. Viral radio architecture mirrors the architecture of the Internet, based on transmission protocols that allow nodes to selforganize in an ad hoc fashion into infinitely scalable networks with no central backbone. The network becomes faster and more reliable as more nodes join. Nodes can be strung together to extend the network to places where traditional wireless networks have been ineffective and wired networks have been prohibitive, such as stairwells and elevators. A viral network should be future-proof, meaning its devices should work indefinitely no matter what other communications enter the environment and no matter how the underlying technology evolves.119 An example of a viral network is Dash Express, an in-car navigation system from Dash Networks. Dash reports traffic conditions and heres whats new up to three routing
Figure 35 ME S H WIT H FRIE NDS
one Laptop Per Childs Xo computer interface shows my neighborhood and the mesh network ad hoc networks that link to the Internet at work. Source: One Laptop Per Child. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 2.5, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/
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find the magic beans that will sprout into profitable, affordable, or even just practical municipal Wi-Fi, BT FoN is trying a distinctively UK version that actually makes some sense at least in cultures inclined to share.120 The idea is to provide more connectivity to more people through a federation of hotspots. Three-year-old FoN is still pursuing this vision, though it is not at the scale it would like to be (there were 340,000 FoN hotspots worldwide as of May 2008).121 Still, FoN presents an interesting, bottom-up viral alternative to cellular and WiMAX. There are many other possibilities for viral networks. Andrew Lippman and David P. Reed, pioneers in viral communications, describe applications and emphasize the innovative, disruptive nature of viral communications: Applications range from wearable health monitors that find the nearest doctor, to smart parking meters that can download a movie to your car while billing you for parking. They can extend radio service into elevators, basements and stairwells, and can be both secure and multi-party. These emergent communicators need not require traditional accounts nor exist as centrally created services they can be unlicensed, personalized, digital, renegade and below the noise floor. Because they can grow virally, they need not be provided by traditional communications companies. . . . . Instead of reserving wireless for special applications that require mobility, we view it as the norm. We anticipate a time when wires are the special case, needed primarily for power distribution.122
being done via mobile phone (banking, buying, marketing, airport check-in124), enjoy TV and other entertainment via mobile phone, and read books and listen to recorded lectures and radio stations via mobile devices. Workers in the field will increasingly have the information they need at a job site or customers office, rather than having to go back to the office computer. Wireless networks can be set up on the fly, for example using CSCs Emergency Digital Communications
Because they [applications] can grow virally, they need not be provided by traditional communications companies.
Andrew Lippman and David P. Reed
Solutions (a trailer-mounted tower towed by a vehicle)125 or a book-size cell phone base station such as the GSM nanoCELL by RIVA Networks.126 Such networks bring connectivity to disaster areas, international waters and other places where public infrastructure does not exist. you can even become a reseller of a carriers network. Sonopia, for example, enables organizations to be their own mobile carrier, focusing on marketing and customer acquisition while the underlying carrier focuses on infrastructure. Groups like the National Wildlife Federation can sell their own branded phone service and help strengthen grass roots support in the process. Enterprises could become mobile carriers to establish a preferred mobile network for their employees use. All these changes point to integrating the opportunities of new waves into the business. Instead of being merely a conduit for voice and text, communications are being more tightly integrated into the business. Nortel helped a hospital integrate communications into the patient discharge process, enabling doctors to sign off on paperwork electronically rather than in person, and automatically notifying staff when rooms and beds are freed up. The result is a more streamlined, efficient process that can accommodate more patients more quickly. or consider mobile entertainment. In-flight Internet access
NEW WAVES = NEW oPPoRTUNITIES

our irrepressible demand for wireless broadband is driving us towards a wireless-only world. Eventually, competing approaches will converge as SDR enables islands of connectivity to come together. The battle of Wi-Fi versus WiMAX versus cellular (be it GSM or CDMA) will be irrelevant when software takes over to unite the spectrum. In the meantime, we see many steps today towards convergence, from dual-mode phones to quad-band phones to data-rich mobile services ( la the iPhone and Google Phone) to soon-to-come 4G networks that emphasize video, mobility and integration of terminals, networks and applications. All this reflects a mounting shift to mobile markets (see the LEF report Connected World).123 We will see more business
means airlines can reduce the cost of in-flight entertainment dramatically while improving customer service, for passengers
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Instead of being merely a conduit for voice and text, communications are being more tightly integrated into the business.
out on this question until the technology gives us real choices to consider. one thing seems certain: SDR will provide a more efficient infrastructure as upgrades are made via software, not hardware, and can be done over the air (if so programmed). This will be faster, easier and cheaper than having to climb a tower and install a new part.
will be able to select their own entertainment movies, books, podcasts, articles from the riches of the Internet. This move to individual entertainment started some time ago with movies (DVDs) on laptops and ubiquitous personal game players, and affects other industries like hospitality as well. Hotels no longer can count on pay-per-view movies as a rich revenue source since people bring their own movies and videos on their laptops and cell phones. This mirrors the demise of hotels phone service as a major revenue source, blown away by the onslaught of the cell phone. Going forward, hotels, airlines and others will have countless new wave opportunities to leverage. To this end, in a wireless world context will be key. Where you are and what you are doing will be relevant to how you connect and what information you access. Random searching and manual network selection will be replaced by contextaware searching and your phone knowing which device to call your colleague on. Eventually, though, we wont need multiple devices (cell phone, Wi-Fi receiver, AM/FM radio) thanks to SDR. The question is, will we want the Swiss Army knife of communication devices or will we prefer having a few specialized devices? The jury is
As spectrum goes digital and the vision of viral communications takes hold, spectrum shifts from what cyberlaw expert Lawrence Lessig calls a rivalrous to a non-rivalrous good.127 Spectrum is no longer a scarce resource, with one persons use rivaling another persons use, but a resource that is not
spectrum is no longer a scarce resource, with one persons use rivaling another persons use, but a resource that is not depleted with use (and, in fact, expands).
depleted with use (and, in fact, expands). This sets the stage for new products, services and business models, upending traditional ways of doing business. Companies and consumers alike need to prepare for this new wave of electromagnetic waves.
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platforM Makeover
This is not your fathers computing platform.
In the never-ending quest to make computing faster and cheaper, the computing platform is undergoing an extreme makeover. Todays computing paradigm is being turned on its head as the platform as we know it transforms into a virtual instantiation of itself or disappears into the network cloud. Environmental pressures are driving the platform to be greener, which furthers the move to virtualization and cloud computing. At the same time, multicore chips are increasing speed and efficiency, pushing Moores Law with silicon to the limit. As software and services migrate from local hardware to the Although these changes are radical on their own, another source of radical platform change is coming in new materials that will eventually replace todays silicon and microelectronics materials. Nanotechnology, molecular computing, quantum computing and optical computing use new materials that, if successful, will dramatically alter the platform landscape, bringing awesome levels of speed and miniaturization and making a host of new applications possible. Lets look at changes to todays platform and then examine the new materials in the pipeline. Internet, the data center footprint shrinks, hardware inventory changes, and IT can shift focus from maintenance (now handled in the cloud) to the immediate needs of the business. other benefits include anytime, anywhere accessibility for users and applications, improved collaboration across distributed business groups, the ability to scale applications quickly as needed, and increased flexibility to change applications and services or experiment with new ones. As another step in the evolution of netcentric computing, cloud computing will take 5-10 years to play out. It has a strong start from virtualization capabilities, software-as-a-service applications like Salesforce.com and Google docs, grid computing, Web 2.0 technologies, infrastructure services like Amazon Web Services and Googles App Engine application hosting service, software platforms like Microsofts Live Mesh, specialized cloud hardware such as IBMs iDataPlex systems, and super-fast network switches. Amazon Web Services offer Web-scale computing services that free software developers and businesses from the heavy
Todays computing paradigm is being turned on its head as the platform as we know it transforms into a virtual instantiation of itself or disappears into the network cloud.
ToDAyS TACTICS
Cloud Computing
Cloud computing is a completely new paradigm for computing that centralizes data center resources on the Internet (the cloud). Inside the cloud are all data, storage, application and processing activities, which must be orchestrated and monitored (no mean feat). outside the cloud, users need only an input and output device. Ultimately, the Internet becomes the world data center. Cloud computing is a radical change from today because every enterprise has its own data center, desktops, laptops and handhelds, with the desktop or laptop typically the focal point.
ultimately, the Internet becomes the world data center.
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grEEN IT: MoVINg BEyoNd ThE 2% soLuTIoN

DAVID MOSCHELLA AND DOUGLAS NEAL, CSC
Green IT is not just about building more efficient data centers and using lowpower personal computers. In fact, IT itself consumes only about two percent of total energy (in the United States). The real green IT opportunities will be found in using information technology to address the other 98 percent in the wider economy in areas such as product development, operations, logistics, brand support, supply chain, globalization and regulatory compliance. In many of these areas, IT can play a leading role that will attract board-level attention and support. However, IT also needs to get its own house in order demonstrate sufficient green computing hygiene before it can creditably seek a wider role in its firms environmental strategy. Examples of both green efforts are shown below. IT and all the employees of the enterprise need to take a holistic approach towards green that encompasses the companys core business strategy, its impact on the entire supply and demand chain ecosystem, and the information systems required for support and verification. This approach needs to be backed up with hard numbers
Business/IT Strategy Green IT operations Market Life Cycle Perspective
Source: CSC with Dan Esty, author, Green to Gold
2% green hygiene

98% green Business

on goals and progress, so that we can protect the brand and preempt any accusations of green washing. To do this, IT needs to build relationships with other parts of the business, such as facilities, who frequently have data and sensors that can be an important part of a corporate energy dashboard. IT has to look at the full life cycle energy costs of its devices, not just the energy to use them. For example, IT-intensive
Reduced energy usage Aligned financial incentives Reengineered data centers Fresh air and warmer cooling Virtualization, utility computing, fewer servers More laptops and flat panels PC power management and thin clients Green buying, power supplies Longer life cycles and recycling Best practices and metrics
Less office and store space More efficient buildings Green manufacturing Smart products and sensors Reduced commuting and flying Improved supply chain and logistics Reduced printing/paper/mail Ease of disposal and recycling Environmental dashboards Measurements and compliance
Continued the on following page >
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lifting typically associated with launching and growing a successful Web business. Amazon Web Services give software developers the keys to Amazons back-end infrastructure, which they can use to build and grow any business. This makes it possible for any business to reach the scale of major Internet players such as Amazon.com but without the expensive price tag needed to build and maintain such a reliable, secure and scalable infrastructure. Amazon Web Services enable organizations to address unpredictable scaling needs, such as the success disaster that happens when an application suddenly becomes immensely
devices such as mobile phones may require twice as much energy to build as to use. This highlights the importance of end-to-end supply chain energy monitoring, from component construction through end-of-life disposal. To help enterprises get started, we recommend a four-step approach:
grEEN IT: MoVINg BEyoNd ThE 2% soLuTIoN (continued)
popular, or there is a one-time project with a tight deadline. Services can be scaled up or down in minutes and are billed on a pro-rated basis. For example, in 2007 a developer at The New york Times used Amazon Web Services (Simple Storage Service or S3, and Elastic Compute Cloud or EC2) to create 11 million PDFs of past articles. This was done in just under 24 hours, using 100 EC2 instances, and generating 1.5 terabytes of data, which was stored on S3.128 (Some four terabytes of source data were uploaded to S3 to start the project.) A single developer commands 100 servers remotely and charges it to his expense account! No formal budgeting was needed, remarked Jeff Barr, Amazons senior Web Services evangelist. The project was high profile and had a short deadline, for the Times was eliminating TimesSelect, a subscription-based online service, and making most of its articles, going back to 1851, available free of charge.129 Since then, the Times has completed another digital archive project, TimesMachine, using Amazon Web Services.130
Reduce power consumption across the enterprise. Improve reuse and recycling beyond just PCs. Green the business on as many fronts as possible. Measure and comply only IT can do this.
Like the space program, going green could ignite widespread innovation in many fields such as energy, transportation and communications. IT has a great opportunity to demonstrate leadership across the firm. This will be a long-term effort, involving everyone. Most companies are in very early stages. The time to get greener is now.
Network giant Cisco is pushing a netcentric view of the platform through new high-speed switches. Ciscos Nexus 7000 Series Switches, designed for the data center, can download 90,000 movies in 38 seconds or copy the entire searchable Web in 7.5 minutes. In its January 2008 announcement, Cisco explained, As the data center transitions to a more servicescentric model, the network plays a pivotal role in orchestrating virtual IT resources and scaling workloads.131 Further, as the clouds capabilities expand, a new layer of software, called a fabric, is appearing to orchestrate all the various technology
David Moschella is Global Research Director and Douglas Neal is a Research Fellow, both for the LEF Executive Programme. The two are leading an in-depth study of green IT.
in the cloud (network, servers, storage and applications).132 on the users end, how people interact with the computer will change, whether it means carrying an ultra-thin device that accesses everything off the network (e.g., the CherryPal PC
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is entirely cloud-based133) or simply wearing a microphone to ask the network to retrieve data (e.g., find me all the sales figures from last week), which would then be projected onto an ordinary object, like a wall or table, that would double as a display.
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University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, to work on the problem.139 In the past, parallel processing was exclusive to the high performance computing (HPC) community. Now parallel processing must go mainstream, as we have all become members of the HPC community since our everyday devices boast so much power. The eight-core Sony Playstation 3 (PS3), introduced in 2006, is the equivalent of roughly 40 Cray-1 supercomputers circa 1976. In June 2008, the Los Alamos National Laboratory set the world record for supercomputer processing speed by combining more than 12,000 IBM cell processors originally designed for the PS3.140 More recently, Intel announced its first multicore graphics capable processing unit, Larrabee. Larrabee will have numerous x86 processor cores and will be able to run existing games and software requiring high-end graphics.141 Larrabee will compete with high-end graphics processors, targeting the PC graphics market initially.142 Intel hopes that Larrabee will usher in a new era of parallel computing by offering developers a way to create highly specialized applications, such as games that require visual computing or scientific software applications that require intensive graphics capabilities. . . .143
Bringing Parallelism Into the Mainstream
Embedded projector display technology from

135
Microvision, designed for mobile phones, laptops and other mobile devices, is already turning walls into displays.
Multicore Chips
With Moores Law reaching its twilight years in silicon due to cooling issues, meaning silicon chips cannot continue their stunning improvements in performance forever (beyond throwing more chips into the hardware), the chip industry has focused on improving chip performance through multicore chips that is, putting multiple processors (cores) on a single silicon chip, with certain common functions shared. Multiple computer functions can be done in parallel, rather than sequentially, though this presents a challenge because advances in parallel processing software have not kept pace.
M EM o Ry BRE AKT H R o U GH : T H E ME MRISTo R
A new component for chips has been discovered, called the memory resistor or memristor. The memristor joins the resistor, capacitor and inductor as the fourth fundamental component of electrical circuits. Eventually, using the memristor, engineers could develop a new kind of computer memory that would enhance and eventually replace todays dynamic random access memory (D-RAM). The memristor would load start-up data faster and could one day lead to systems that remember, understand patterns of data and make decisions, getting closer to how people think.136 (See Smart(er) World.)
Indeed, more parallelism is on the way. Although games written and tuned for multiple cores distribute game layers across the cores (i.e., parallelize the processing), most standard software on general purpose machines takes, at best, only limited advantage of the multiple cores and processors available due to the complexity of parallel programming. Though programmers brains (and our brains) process via a massively parallel set of neurons, programmers think serially, breaking down a problem and coding its solution as a series of steps. Advances in automatically taking these serial solutions, parallelizing them, and unifying the results have been slow in coming. But they are coming.
Typical consumer-oriented microprocessors have up to eight cores on a chip; the industry is moving to chips with 100 or more cores.137 Intel has built a prototype 80-core processor, though it is not expected to be commercialized until sometime around 2012.138 In an effort to help create the parallel processing software that is desperately needed to keep all these chips busy simultaneously, Intel and Microsoft have funded a $20 million research grant over five years that will create independent laboratories at the University of California, Berkeley and the
one company addressing the multicore software challenge, depicted in Figure 36, is RapidMind. RapidMind offers a hardwareindependent Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) platform whose APIs integrate with ordinary code (e.g., C++) and leverage the potential of all the processors, whether multicore processors from AMD, Intel or Sony, or graphics processors from NVIDIA or ATI. The RapidMind platform, based on data parallelism, has been used to improve 10-fold the performance of an Elastography Contrast Enhancement medical imaging and
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Figure 36 T HE MU LT I Co R E S o F T WA R E CH ALLE NG E
Quad Core Quad Core
8-Core
Terascale
Hardware Potential
8-Core
Fusion
PERFORMANCE
PowerPC
CellBE
Capability Gap
Multicore # cores Single Core GHz
Software Performance
Todays software does not take full advantage of multicore hardware, creating a capability gap. Source: RapidMind
analysis system, which constructs a blood flow model to account for anomalies found in an image of the brain or correlates ultrasound data to produce a clearer image, all in real time. Another company tackling the problem is a household name: Apple. At the outset of the companys 2008 Worldwide Development Conference, Apple CEo Steve Jobs said, The way the processor industry is going is to add more and more cores, but nobody knows how to program those things. . . . I mean, two, yeah; four, not really; eight, forget it.144 At the heart of Apples new 2009 operating system, Snow Leopard, is a technology code-named Grand Central that will provide support for multicore processors, making it easy for developers to create programs that take full advantage of the power of multicore Macs. Snow Leopard further extends support for modern hardware with open Computing Language (openCL), which lets any application tap into the vast gigaflops of GPU computing power previously available only to graphics applications.145 Virtualization software, increasingly popular in the infrastructure, is particularly well-suited to parallelism. Virtual software runs multiple operating systems and application stacks, which have natural functional boundaries that can be distributed across processors and cores. As the virtualization trend continues, along with the move to multicore, both should pull parallelism along with them.
As the virtualization trend continues, along with the move to multicore, both should pull parallelism along with them.
ToMoRRoWS NEW MATERIALS

In the long-term 10 or more years from now the silicon chips of todays platform will be replaced with new materials, representing a significant break with the past 45 years of siliconbased processing. As Moores Law comes to an end, with no more power able to be eked out of a silicon chip, new materials must be harnessed to increase processing speed and efficiency. Instead of chips and their associated microelectronics, there
Instead of chips and their associated microelectronics, there will be far smaller, lighter materials at work: atoms, dNA, electron spins and light.
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will be far smaller, lighter materials at work: atoms, DNA, electron spins and light. This may sound futuristic, but it is not science fiction labs are busy perfecting these materials now. Although viable commercial solutions may be some time away, the horizon is decades, not centuries.
Nanotechnology: Making Things Super Small
sensors to help detect traumatic brain injury (TBI) early on. Impact sensors in the helmet will relay blast-injury data to first responders in real time. The sensors will continuously record data about the helmet wearers physical condition; this is key to detecting and treating TBI, because soldiers experiencing a blast sometimes do not realize they have sustained a brain injury until hours or days later. Similar systems could be used to monitor neurological patients in intensive care, or motorcycle riders so that first responders would know what happened to the rider if there was a crash.147 The sensors are being designed to be small, low power and light weight. Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology are creating
Nanotechnology, the building of things atom by atom, enables unprecedented levels of control with incredibly small parts. Nano parts are on the order of 100 nanometers (billionths of a meter) or less; you would have to move a Post-It note half-way around the earth for it to appear three nanometers in size to you.
146
Although atomically-precise manufacturing and self-assembly are quite a ways off, the use of nano-sized materials is enabling exciting innovations that could pave the way for revolutionary applications in such areas as medicine, smart materials (see Smart(er) World) and energy. This includes innovations such as precisely-targeted agents for cancer therapy, artificial blood, and equipment that self-repairs. For example, University of Illinois researchers are creating a combat helmet for the U.S. Army containing nanotechnology
a power shirt that uses textile fibers covered with zinc oxide nanowires to generate electric current from the wearers movement that could power a range of portable electronic devices great for soldiers, hikers and others on foot.148 The fibers, called nanogenerators (see Figure 37), could also be woven into tents, curtains and other materials to harness energy from the wind, sound vibrations or other mechanical energy.149 Longer term, the most advanced nanotechnology applications envisioned include artificial organ systems, exaflop laptop
Figure 37
Georgia Tech Regents Professor Zhong Lin Wang holds a prototype microfiber nanogenerator. The nanogenerator is being woven
into shirts to harvest electrical energy from the wearers movement to power portable electronic devices. Source: Georgia Institute of Technology
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PLATForM MAgIC: 3d PrINTINg
Imagine if you could print out a real toy for your child to play with. Thats the vision of 3D printing: consumers using 3D printers at home to print design specs off the Web.150 Print anything you need, from toys to parts to landscape and furniture designs. If the dawn of the digital age was about moving from atoms to bits, 3D printing brings it full circle, moving from bits to atoms. And with that comes some platform magic: Who would have thought you could manufacture a toy from your home printer? A 3D printer yields a solid object that you can hold in your hands, in contrast to a 2D printer that yields a flat image on paper. The implications for education are enormous; as children we learn kinesthetically, by holding and examining things like blocks. Now imagine that a laptop designer can print a 3D model to examine her design; an architect can print a scale model of a building to help understand and communicate his design; a biochemist can print accurate models of DNA molecules, enlarged by orders of magnitude, to help students and researchers better understand nature; and artists can create unique works using the new 3D techniques.
the bottom up, as the print head moves back and forth. Depending on the size of the object, it can take anywhere from one to 12 hours to complete a job. Once started, though, the job can be left unattended like baking a cake. The printer is driven by data from commercial 3D CAD software that is used to design the object. Most 3D printers use a powder or soft material to build the model, layer by layer, and include an adhesive material for bonding the layers. Leaders in the field include Z Corporation, new entrants include Desktop Factory and Fab@Home.
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A 3D printer produces a physical object you can hold in your hands, ideal for prototype designs. In this picture, the printed object is being cleared of powder that forms during the printing process. As 3D printers get cheaper, they will spring up across campuses, offices and homes and be used for applications yet to be imagined. Source: Z Corporation
Stratasys and 3D systems, while interesting
familiar story: Costs Drop, technology spreads, innovation soars

Additive rapid prototyping machines were first introduced over 20 years ago, but they were large, expensive and difficult to operate. Hence they were of limited interest to most organizations except for a few well-funded labs. However, in the late 1990s, lower-cost machines using technologies such as fused-deposition modeling (FDM) and powder binding began to be available in the $30,000 to $50,000 range. These machines, which can be used without special environmental controls and with a modest amount of training, were the first 3D printers (by our definition).
than $10,000, require very little training, and are capable of being operated in a typical faculty office, computer lab or home. At least one vendor has the ambition of producing 3D printers for less than $1,000 in five years. As these printers achieve lower price points and accessibility, they will spring up across campuses, offices and homes and be used for applications yet to be imagined, envisions A. Michael Berman, chief technology officer at Art Center College of Design in Pasadena, California. This piece was developed, with permission, from an article by A. Michael Berman, 3D Printing: Making the Virtual Real, October 2007 (http://www.educause.edu/ir/library/ pdf/DEC0702.pdf). Dr. Berman can be contacted at amichaelberman@gmail.com.
like Baking a Cake

Most 3D printers are additive in that they produce the object layer by layer, from However, we are on the verge of the introduction of new systems that will cost less
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computers, efficient solar-based fuel production, removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, and manufacturing based on productive nanosystems.
152
computation in a biomolecular environment. In 2006, Israeli researchers developed a molecular computer that uses enzymes to perform calculations from within the human body and monitor the release of drugs.157 The progress continues. In contrast to traditional computings serial processing, DNA computing is similar to parallel processing; the molecules can produce billions of potential answers simultaneously, making DNA computing suitable for solving fuzzy logic158 problems that have many solutions, though one may be optimal (e.g., the traveling salesman problem). In the future there may be hybrid machines that use silicon for normal processing tasks and DNA co-processors for tasks they are more suited for. DNA is a plentiful, cheap source of processing power, and it can be produced cleanly. But the key advantage is being able to make computers far smaller than today that are able to hold much more data; one pound of DNA has the capacity to store more information than all the electronic computers ever built.159 In addition to DNA computing, progress is being made in molecular electronics. In 2007, IBM scientists reported a possible breakthrough when they created a molecular switch that could turn itself on and off without altering its geometric shape. Maintaining a constant shape is important for being able to link molecules together to form logic gates. Also in 2007, a team of UCLA and California Institute of Technology chemists reported successfully demonstrating a large-scale, ultra-dense memory device that stores information using reconfigurable molecular switches. Both achievements are important steps towards building molecular computers.160
Quantum Leap
Though these applications
are far in the future, nanotechnology is coming: possibly in the next decade, probably in the next 25 years, and almost certainly in the 21st century, according to J. Storrs Hall, chief scientist at Nanorex, Inc. and protg of Eric Drexler, considered the father of nanotechnology.153
Molecular Computing: Channeling Mother Nature
The human body is a marvel of creation, its millions of molecules serving as natural supercomputers that have the potential to perform calculations many times faster than todays supercomputers.154 DNA computing (a form of molecular computing) attempts to discover the computational power of molecules and design computers based on this new model of computation. DNA computing has many strong features, including: extremely dense information storage, enormous parallelism and extraordinary energy efficiency.
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Though DNA computing is still in its infancy the field was initially developed in 1994 it is particularly suited for pharmaceutical and biomedical applications, including implants that release drugs according to conditions sensed in the body.
The human body is a marvel of creation, its millions of molecules serving as natural supercomputers that have the potential to perform calculations many times faster than todays supercomputers.
Quantum computers make direct use of natural quantum mechanical phenomena such as spins of electrons or currents in superconducting circuits to store information as quantum
In 2003, Israeli scientists demonstrated a limited but functioning molecular computing machine that used DNA molecules and enzymes, instead of silicon chips, for both data storage and processing a major achievement. The computer can perform 330 trillion operations per second, more than 100,000 times the speed of the fastest PC all from something that looks like a drop of water.
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bits (qubits) and perform computation. A qubit can assume the values 0, 1 or both simultaneously very different from the rigid 0 or 1 (on or off) of a binary bit. What makes quantum computing so powerful is that qubits can store much more information than binary bits, and qubits can be used together to perform calculations on that information in a parallel, not serial, fashion. That is, quantum computing can process and evaluate many possible permutations of a problem simultaneously. As the number of qubits in these computers scales, this capability will enable extremely fast solutions to a wide
However, the focus is not on computational power per se, but rather on medical applications that require autonomous
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range of problems that are currently considered intractable even on the fastest available supercomputers. Consider the following example. Given an image, a human can easily recognize and label a large range of interesting objects in the image trees, cars, people, landmarks, etc. This task, seemingly intuitive for humans, remains beyond the reach of any current automated image labeling system. This problem is of significant interest not only because of the obvious economic importance of image search, but also because it is mathematically related to a wide range of tasks at which humans currently outperform machines. A technology that can recognize and label objects in images will be able to solve many of the outstanding problems standing in the way of true machine intelligence, including learning and automated reasoning.
magnetic flux qubits. D-Wave uses a well known technique called Adiabatic Quantum Computation (AQC) to solve a wide variety of complex problems in search, optimization, constraint satisfaction and pattern matching. Adiabatic quantum computers leverage the deep connection between hard math problems and the fundamental laws of nature. They use quantum physics to do the math. Special purpose adiabatic quantum processors can be ordersof-magnitude faster than classical digital processors. Largescale adiabatic quantum computers have not yet been built so it is not yet possible to know empirically how well they will perform, but leading researchers expect them to achieve quadratic speed-ups over existing classical computing. This means that calculations that currently take hours will be able to be done in seconds. As the quantum computers scale, they will potentially be able to solve in a few days problems that would otherwise require millions or even billions of CPU years using todays computers. An additional benefit is that quantum processors are extremely low power (power consumption and heat generation are reduced by factors of thousands) when compared to current state-ofthe-art systems. D-Wave is working with Google to test a proof-of concept structured classification application using a quantum computer running at 28 qubits. our computers will be able to solve a
Quantum computing can process and evaluate many possible permutations of a problem simultaneously.
General purpose quantum computing is still in the research stage, as noted in a February 2008 MITRE newsletter (MITRE, a federally funded R&D center, is doing joint research with Princeton University on quantum computing): Still a work in progress, quantum computing is closing in on a time when small quantum computing machines comprised of a few qubits will appear on the research scene. At first, theyll probably come as quantum peripherals tied to classical computers, with the peripheral used only for specialized tasks. Until then, the security of current banking codes can be maintained. But with all the attention being given to quantum computing, traditional computing may soon be in store for some mighty stiff competition.
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wide range of high-value structured classification problems in applications such as image matching, machine learning, scheduling and complex database search, says Jonathan Silverman, director of product marketing at D-Wave. We are currently testing prototype versions of the hardware but we will need to get to 1,000 qubits or more to be com-mercially viable. D-Wave expects to have a 512-qubit system running by the end of 2008 and a 1,024-qubit system available commercially in 2009. once the technology scales, it will be able to solve very hard problems significantly beyond the scope of traditional HPC systems, Silverman asserts.
Let There Be Light
Ah, to have computers that operate at the speed of light or close to it. Researchers are working on tapping light, already used in fiber optics for high-speed telecommunications, to power computers. Using photons instead of electrons is theoretically much faster because photons travel much faster than an electric current. Photons have two unique properties that give them a boost: entanglement (instantaneous communication no matter what the distance) and superposition (the
D-Wave Systems is pioneering the development of quantum computers for commercial applications. Rather than wait for general purpose quantum computing to become commercially feasible, D-Wave is leveraging the properties of quantum devices that are buildable today to create special purpose analog computers. D-Waves quantum processors are arrays of
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ability to process multiple options simultaneously). other benefits include lower cross talk, better signal integrity at high frequencies, and lower power requirements at higher transmission rates. optical computing is in early stages in the lab. A key challenge is that it is very difficult to use light to control the state of a beam of light (on or off), though in 2007 researchers at Harvard University announced they had developed a workable approach that uses only one photon rather than large bursts of photons to switch states. Such an optical transistor is a key step towards building a practical optical computer.162 IBM announced a prototype optical interconnect technology in February 2008 that could enable very large file transfers in seconds with extremely low power. The green optical link could enable speeds as high as eight terabits per second using power equivalent to one 100-watt light bulb.163 The technology puts optical chips and optical data buses in a single package and uses standard components, a big step towards commercialization. Sun Microsystems has launched a high-risk project to use light instead of wires between chips to speed data transfer. The technology, part of a field called silicon photonics, would, if successful,
eliminate data transfer bottlenecks in supercomputers where hundreds or thousands of processors are involved. The research involves precisely aligning chips to make it possible to transmit light across the surface of the chips in ultra-narrow channels called wave guides. If the idea proves successful, it would be possible to create smaller machines that are 1,000 times faster than todays computers.164 Funded by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the five-year project was announced in March 2008 and includes partners Stanford University, the University of California at San Diego, Luxtera and Kotura. Around the same time, NEC Corporation announced an advance in optical connections between chips that will pave the way for supercomputers to reach speeds of 10 petaflops, roughly 20 times faster than the worlds fastest computer.165 overall, the platform makeover is about optimizing performance: getting the right power to the right applications, not wasting hardware or energy, not running software you dont need. The next generation of new materials, which will take us well beyond Moores Law, is on its way. Expect new levels of high performance computing and a wealth of new applications and solvable problems.
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sMart(er) WorlD
Inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has long been predicting a smart(er) world. Extrapolating from trends that show accelerating CPU power and decreasing memory and storage density, combined with accelerating advances in biology, Kurzweil predicts that by 2029 we will have reverse-engineered the brain and produced for $1,000 a computer version 10 times as smart that passes the Turing Test that is, that converses so fluently it fools most humans into thinking it is human.
Smarter everything makes us smarter everywhere.
proactively associates and correlates data based on grasped meaning leverages real-world background information to assimilate new data i.e., learns reasons from what it learns makes common-sense recommendations and predictions makes decisions and acts on behalf of humans
To put it another way: A working definition of intelligence is the
This will lead to what Kurzweil calls the Singularity: technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
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ability to acquire, through experience, knowledge and models of the world (including other entities and self), and use them productively to solve novel problems and deal successfully with unanticipated circumstances.167
Although we are decades from the
Singularity, which Kurweil puts at 2045, he can be proud of his predictions to date. Today many technologies are becoming smart, leveraging small, powerful, inexpensive processors and communications technology to take on tasks once accomplished only by humans.
HoW To GET SMART(ER)

With an understanding of what constitutes smart, this section discusses some of the key building blocks for making things smarter.
Smarter Assistants
Kurzweil predicts that by 2029 we will have reverse-engineered the brain and produced for $1,000 a computer version 10 times as smart that passes the Turing Test.
WHAT IS SMART?
Though the philosophical debate over whether computers can ever be said to think may never be resolved, there is general agreement on what it means for technology to be smart. Smart technology approaches human cognition when it: senses and recognizes patterns as humans do appreciates the semantics the meaning of the patterns it perceives, be they text, speech, special or situational
Technology from MyCyberTwin is closing in on Kurzweils goal, letting you create a virtual assistant (avatar) and train it to be your proxy, speaking and acting on your behalf and fooling many humans into thinking its you. The technology, a unique blend of heuristic algorithms, knowledge mining and knowledge representation, takes less than six weeks to train and test, is 95 percent accurate, learns to be even more accurate with use, and can actually analyze the mood (are you angry?) and personality (are you an agreeable person?) of the person communicating with it and modify its own communication style accordingly. A cybertwin communicates via text chat, which can be supplemented with voice output from the avatar. The cybertwin technology is being used by PBL Media and Fairfax Media, two large media companies in Australia, as well
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as several banks and an airline to handle customer inquiries and transactions. (See Figure 38.) Each cybertwin is designed with the enterprises specific goals in mind, whether its getting people to sign up for a credit card or simply keeping them on the site as long as possible. As a result of deploying cybertwin technology, one company has been able to cut its call center staff in half. Indeed, whats really exciting about this technology is it gives enterprises the ability to scale in a digital environment, be it a Web site or a virtual world. A single cybertwin can handle millions of inquiries simultaneously, across several areas of expertise, says Liesl Capper, co-founder of MyCyberTwin. In the future, smart avatars will be the primary way to handle customer service. InteliWISE has also seized on this opportunity, providing smart avatars it calls them conversational agents for online customer
care and electronic sales. Beneath the InteliWISE Conversational Agent, which communicates via chat by the user, digitized voice by the avatar, and context-dynamic video, is semantic technology that helps make sense of external client databases, including customized CRM feeds, news feeds and dictionary sources of definitions (e.g., Wikipedia). InteliWISE intends to create exact user profiles that will help answer such questions as Is the user satisfied with our solutions? and If we identify the users knowledge level, what kind of response is best suited for this kind of user? The InteliWISE technology applies just the right amount of intelligence rather than a heavy-handed approach, making it simple but effective. The technology can be deployed on Web sites, kiosks, mobile phones and as a widget on a PC. InteliWISE solutions have automated up to 70 percent of call center queries, with over 80 percent of them answered correctly. The technology has been deployed at LoT Polish Airlines (see Figure 39), The Crowley Group, Carolina Medical Centre and Public TV (all in Poland). For the future, InteliWISE is working on making its avatars more autonomous and deploying voice recognition, which would enable its technology, which already uses voice synthesis, to be accessed via telephone. However, given an avatars welldefined problem space (e.g., bank policies, airline procedures), it is not clear that the more general problem of getting them to understand natural language will be solved soon, though progress is being made. As more business is done online and consumers seek a personal experience, avatars will be the only way to handle growth and provide individual attention. The only way to scale our physical limits into virtual infinity is through virtual assistants, says Paul Gustafson, director of CSCs Leading Edge Forum. Engaging with an avatar will be much more appealing than clicking through a virtual space or poring over a FAQ. That is why MyCyberTwin is targeting search as the next frontier for its technology. A smart avatar will be able to find what you want through a conversational-style set of questions that enable you to narrow the search.
Bringing Understanding to the Web
Figure 38
This demonstration of a cybertwin for ANZ Bank in
Australia shows the cybertwin answering the customers initial question, What products do you offer? The customer has typed her next question, Do you have any credit cards that earn air miles?, in the chat box. See demo at: http://www.mycybertwin.com/demo/anz/ Source: MyCyberTwin
The Web itself is gaining a more human-like, semantic understanding of the information it has traditionally compared using keyword matching, devoid of meaning. Web 3.0, dubbed the Semantic Web by Web inventor Sir Tim Berners-Lee in 1998, focuses on representing meaning and providing reasoning
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objects and procedures; and federated stores rather than large local databases. The net result is being able to find relevant information, extract embedded and intrinsic knowledge, reason automatically, solve more complex problems, and manage computer systems autonomically. Information-centric patterns of computing have reached their limits in terms of coping with scale, complexity, security, mobility, rich media interaction and autonomic behavior. As more people, devices, information and com-
Figure 39
LoT Polish Airlines uses a conversational agent from InteliWISE to provide
merce rush to the Web, a smarter, more automated environment is needed to manage and make sense of the Webs treasure trove of data and transaction opportunities. Web 3.0 addresses these
information about on-board services, frequent flier program, check-in, tickets and reservations, baggage transport, and travel to other countries. Source: LOT Polish Airlines
capabilities. When information on the Web is encoded in semantic form, its meaning laid bare, it becomes transparent and accessible to a variety of reasoning engines.
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issues by connecting knowledge, and it lays the foundation for Web 4.0, the Web that connects intelligence in an environment where people and things reason and communicate together.171 (See Figure 40.)
Semantic Search
Web 3.0
promises to expose much information that has escaped our attention and will make the Web work more effectively for us. Said to be in beta now, Web 3.0 will be big business; the market for semantic technologies and applications is expected to exceed $50 billion in 2010.169
Broadly speaking, the Holy Grail of the Semantic Web is semantic search: giving the Internet the ability to find what we meant to ask for, not merely the keywords we used to ask. Semantic search is appearing in a number of places. In May 2008 Powerset launched a beta of its namesake product, a semantic search layer atop Wikipedia and Freebase, with tools to help extract, organize and navigate content by meaning.
As more business is done online and consumers seek a personal experience, avatars will be the only way to handle growth and provide individual attention.
As more people, devices, information and commerce rush to the web, a smarter, more automated environment is needed to manage and make sense of the webs treasure trove of data and transaction opportunities.
With Web 3.0, the Internet shifts from information-centric to knowledge-centric computing.170 This shift emphasizes enduser rather than IT development; unified platforms rather than separate technologies for documents, models and behaviors; systems that can learn at run time from user input and system learning about the environment; external knowledge structures rather than embedded, hard-coded reasoning; glass box transparent semantic agents rather than black box
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Figure 40 EVo LU T I o N o F T H E W E B To 2020
Artificial Intelligence
Intelligent Agents Personal Assistants
Natural Language
Autonomic Intellectual Property Spime
Semantic Agent Ecosystems Smart Markets
Increasing Knowledge Connectivity & Reasoning
The Semantic Web

Ontologies
Blogjects
Agent webs that know, learn and reason as humans do

Semantic Communities Semantic Enterprise
Connects Knowledge
Semantic Search
The Ubiquitous Web

Semantic Website & UI Semantic Desktop
Connects Intelligence
Semantic Wiki
Semantic Blog Semantic Email
Thesauri & Taxonomies
Knowledge Bases Bots
Semantic Social networks
Context-Aware Games Wiki Multi-user Gaming Marketplaces & Auctions Community Portals
Search Engines Content Portals
Enterprise Portals Web Sites
Mash-ups
Connects Information
Databases Desktop Push Publish & Subscribe File Servers Email Conferencing P2P File Sharing
The Web
Blogs
RSS
PIMS
The Social Web

Connects People
Social Bookmarking
Social Networks Instant Messaging
Increasing Social Connectivity
Source: Nova Spivak, Radar Networks; John Breslin, DERI; and Mills Davis, Project 10X
Freebase (free database) is an open, collaboratively-edited database of the worlds knowledge.172 Freebase analyzes data sources such as Wikipedia sentence by sentence, and puts summaries of the most important concepts into a database. For example, when processing the entry on the Golden Gate Bridge, Freebase would store the concepts bridge earns name and winds prevent operation. Freebase users can upload tables of data by domain and type, such as IBMs acquisitions this year or all primary election results, so they are available to answer queries.
is hard. But unlocking the meaning hidden in words promises a big payoff. Hakia.com, another contender, uses semantic technology to deliver search results backed by credible sources, such as those recommended by librarians rather than popular rankings. Hakia also connects you with people who asked the same question you did, and is available on mobile phones. Highly specialized search sites including Like.com (images),
Powerset leverages Freebase to build and query these tables, and asserts that queries with linguistic structure better leverage the technology, prompting the Powerset engine to try to specifically answer the question. When the query Who won the Republican nomination? was entered in May 2008, Powerset had the answer (John McCain), though the answer was the seventh result. (The fifth result had the letters w o n highlighted in the word wont.) Cleary the technology is still in beta; language processing
Vast.com (entities and attributes), Pandora (music), Metacarta (location) and Kayak (travel) are designed to understand a specific area. other sites, such as Search Wikia, Topicle and ChaCha, use people to manually refine search results. Some vendors focus on relevance matching in the enterprise, including Twine, Llesiant and Tacit Software. Their services use semantics to discover information of interest to individual employees and to locate expertise in the organization.
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Knowledge is not necessarily digital; its often tacit in our heads, says David Gilmour, CEo of Tacit Software. Tacits Illumio software draws out employee interests by creating a special user profile based on where the person browses and his e-mail messages and documents. Through word parsing and statistical techniques that simulate semantics, the software reveals the persons strengths and areas of interest, so it knows what kinds of information would be relevant to this person (and delivers it), and when this person would be suitable to respond to a query or provide information (and arranges the response, with the persons permission).
Semantics in the Enterprise
In addition to locating expertise, NASA is using semantics in other ways. It is using Swoop to correlate ontologies across multiple groups inside and outside NASA to create an international standard for planetary data. NASA is also using Science organizer, a semantic hypermedia system, for organizing science and other project information from the individuals perspective. There is lots of information out there but its only useful when it addresses your particular problem or when its analyzed from your perspective, says Jeanne Holm, chief knowledge architect at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The National Library of Medicine, working with CSC, is exploring an open source digital content repository tool, Fedora, that provides semantic capabilities to contextualize and interrelate digital content from many sources. one of its interesting features is that it uses RDF to represent the relationships between digital objects stored in the repository. For example, one digital object might represent a collection of materials, and other digital objects might be members of that collection. or, a network of relationships might exist between a set of digital objects about Thomas Jefferson: a scanned letter penned by Jefferson, a photo of a painting of Jefferson, a document about the artist, a diagram of Monticello, and a document about the construction of Monticello. Searching the repository using these types of relationships will help users drill down more quickly to the specific content they seek. The latest release of Fedora uses Mulgara, a scalable open source RDF database, or semantic triplestore, that indexes all the relationships in the repository and supports the World Wide Web Consortiums (W3Cs) new SPARQL semantic query language. As libraries provide more information resources to the public
An interesting application of semantics in the enterprise is being able to locate expertise quickly. Semantics enable the organization to build connections between people, information and events, breaking down stovepiped information to search it more effectively and find what you need fast. NASA offers a good example. When the Space Shuttle takes off, any malfunction, no matter how minor, must be dealt with immediately by a team of specialists. NASA is using Semantic Web technologies to quickly locate expertise throughout the agency when it is required, whether for dealing with mission-critical situations or for staffing projects in general. The PoPS (People, organizations, Projects, Skills) system draws on databases throughout NASA to integrate information about its nearly 70,000 civil service and contractor workers.173 This information includes projects worked on, articles published, competency information, contact information, and code of accounts (time reporting) information. So, for example, to find a foam specialist, PoPs would search the code of accounts database to see who had charged time to a related area, and then would search other databases to narrow the field to one or a few people. In the past, locating an expert involved e-mail queries or word-of-mouth, taking hours if not days, whereas with PoPs it takes just minutes. To do this, NASA created an RDF federation of three core databases (project data, skills information, and people and organizational data) and used the Swoop ontology editor to create an oWL ontology for the federation. (RDF and oWL are fundamental tools underpinning the Semantic Web.) This ontology relates relevant information in the federation, which can be queried by users dynamically to find the expertise they needed quickly.
on the Web, they bring their strong heritage of cataloging that is, describing resources using very formal methods, observes Ed Luczak, principal systems architect at CSC who is on assignment at the National Library of Medicine. In information systems and on the Web, libraries are using very well-defined XML-based metadata schemes and, often, controlled vocabularies to describe resources. This richness in describing resources makes the resources easier to find or discover when someone is searching for them. Libraries typically dont call this semantics although most of the rest of us would. Recall that the W3C Semantic Web working group was originally called the Metadata working group; the ideas are closely related, and they are being applied more widely to real-world problems today.
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Cataloging the data building an ontology is crucial to describing a problem space that can be semantically searched, and even more crucial when that problem space is particularly complex. Consider the very real problem of terrorism, which involves identifying complicated sequences of events and unraveling webs of personal connections. Researchers at the University of Maryland, College Park are building a terrorism ontology using new techniques to help the intelligence community examine information from many angles and surface relationships.174 With ontologies, relationships become a firstclass citizen, as important as the data itself. Indeed, establishing relationships via ontologies, cataloging or other means is what enables the beauty of semantics to be fully realized. Semantics have no value until the connections
Semantics Meet Services
At the infrastructure level, vendors are busy injecting semantics into foundational services and processes. For example, Zepheira builds software for semantic SoA (Service oriented Architecture). With semantic SoA (SSoA), resources and services are wrapped with semantic identifiers so they can be shared across the enterprise, not confined to the local system. By clearly identifying and describing all resources relevant to a service, including relationships across services, enterprises can begin to create automated tools and dashboards to manage change and adapt quickly to new business opportunities. Imagine a service called document to phone for transferring a document to a mobile phone. In a typical SoA environment there is very little descriptive information about the business nature of the service. The descriptive information is technical about message data structures and network protocol require-
with ontologies, relationships become a first-class citizen, as important as the data itself.
ments rather than the characteristics of the document and the mobile phone that would be relevant to the business. In SSoA, you wrap the service with information that describes a document, a phone, and what the service does. Then, when an application needs a service for transferring HTML to a mobile phone, it can find the document to phone service because
are made. one company, Mondeca, focuses on classifying documents and other content to determine how the data relates. Mondecas Intelligent Topic Manager works with structured and unstructured text and multimedia data to identify topics and create a network of content related to a particular topic, using Semantic Web standards. Classifying content in this way improves navigation and search and is an important step towards the larger semantic enterprise. Mondecas technology has been used to classify legal terminology, scientific publications, and e-tourism information, for example. Also on the road to the semantic enterprise and the Semantic Web are microformats, simple open data standards that make it easy to exchange information and enable agents on the Web to work on your behalf. A vcard uses a microformat for exchanging business cards; now the travel industry, namely TripBlox, has developed a microformat for publishing trip ideas, wish lists and favorite itineraries. Travel bloggers and enthusiasts can publish their travel plans and information using the TripBlox publishing standard. TripBlox stores all content in RDF and uses an oWL ontology to make sense of it. Reasoning techniques are used to infer connections between trips, activities, hotels and trip authors. Defining the context of the data makes it much easier to understand and leverage. Thats what the Semantic enterprise is all about.
HTML is a kind of document, and the environment makes the connection. Were adding business vocabulary to the specifications for services, explains Eric Miller, president of Zepheira. Were surfacing the meaning of services, and the meaning of everything touched by services, so you can use services and integrate with services in ways not originally anticipated by the designers. one example of how a SSoA can help the enterprise is financial trading. Trading is enhanced by making connections between evolving news events and publicly traded companies or commodities. These connections are facilitated by the effective integration of private data from analysts, licensed third party content and, increasingly, publicly available information on the Web. Many of the existing service interfaces used for specific applications of this data can be wrapped in a SSoA architecture so the service and even the related data can be leveraged for additional uses beyond their original purpose. The ability to wrap existing services, use them in new ways, and rapidly create new ways to connect them to support more effective data integration and analysis enables more effective trading and creates competitive advantage. SSoA is also very powerful for compliance management and corporate mergers; information systems must be adaptable
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to policy changes and merger requirements, respectively. Traditional SoA helps break down stovepiped applications and data, but SSoA takes it a step further. SSoA lets you create enterprise-wide models for policy management or for coordinating separate processes from corporations after a merger. The key is in direct expression of business context within the information systems, so that IT and managers can collaborate closely to translate business changes into systems. Without such models, changes established by the business are not reflected rapidly in the services. SSoA can help organizations react quickly to regulatory changes and adopt new strategies fast. The SSoA infrastructure includes two key components. Persistent URLs (PURLs) are an open industry convention for establishing unique identifiers for resources (data, documents, services) across all information systems so the resources remain intact amidst social or organizational change. Remix is a Webbased application platform from Zepheira that allows people to combine Web content with data sources ranging from databases to desktop office application files, and publish the results internally or externally on the Web. Resources and services are identified using the language of the business, as defined in an ontology. When creating an ontology, there does not need to be agreement up front on terms and definitions. you can create a simple infrastructure that wraps existing services such that they connect to other services as needed they can establish the link. The SSoA supports many different policies and the fact that they might change. (Remix is the tool for this.) We empower employees to stitch services together the way they need to, and record those stitchings for future use, says Miller. This gives the enterprise flexibility rather than imposing a single, top-down view. Zepheira intends to have its entire infrastructure ready by the end of 2009, so enterprises can move from prototype applications to full-scale implementation. Like Zepheira, Metatomix focuses on enterprise infrastructure to connect existing systems and access them semantically. Enterprises are using the Metatomix Semantic Platform to:
Determine mutual funds net asset value and compliance status daily. Calculate the cost of a product, like an airplane, before it is built. Compare results of scientific studies to see how they impact other studies. The Metatomix platform provides a suite of tools to create an ontology, connect data sources, semantically integrate them, and either persist the data in an RDF data store or provide a real-time, virtual view of the data. Metatomixs differentiator is applying rules and policies on top of the ontology reasoning, to yield greater insight. For example, a policy would look for an event, such as three people applying for a credit card from the same company, and trigger a possible money laundering alert when the event occurs, automatically notifying an analyst and creating a fraud case in the system.
using semantics has the potential to remove many of the tasks traditionally associated with application implementation projects, and deliver systems that provide business processes that can adapt and evolve as users explore business process efficiencies.
Companies can make the connection between stovepiped data sources and detect fraud faster. By identifying relationships across data, customers and accounts, and being able to make decisions in real time (e.g., do not accept this persons credit card application), banks can save millions. In the past, fraud detection could take six to nine months as banks collected data and searched for patterns of fraud after the fact, losing millions in bad debt in the process.175 one financial services firm using the Metatomix platform
Identify criminals based on background checks and other data. Stop anti-money laundering and other types of fraud.
aggregates data from over 6,000 mutual funds daily, generates their net asset value, and determines whether or not the funds are in compliance with their specific regulations. This activity
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Figure 41
Delaycast.com uses predictive modeling to forecast flight delays and cancellations. The right column shows predicted minimums
and maximums. Source: Delaycast.com
is done in a one-hour window and includes aggregating data from other sources in North America, Europe and Asia. Using semantic technology, the firm can analyze data on the fly and look for anomalies or trends for its mutual fund clients without having to hard code the work. The firm estimates it is saving over 100,000 person-hours a year using this revamped process. Additionally, with the semantic platform the firm can create new value-added services for its clients quickly. Another opportunity for semantics is connecting business process management (BPM) services with semantic capability. Integrated Project SUPER (Semantics Utilised for Process Management within and Between Enterprises), led by the European Union, focuses on creating a semantic user interface to business application development. Ultimately this would shift control from IT to business people, enabling them to describe requirements, systems set-up and modifications in standard English. CSC is exploring how to use semantic BPM to accelerate application delivery.
The potential for disruption comes if you give business people (end users) the ability to define business processes and system requirements in ways that IT systems can understand, without needing IT consultants to interpret the requirements, identify gaps and issues, and specify configurations and customizations. From a business change point of view, semantics enable the business person to understand how the process step he or she is responsible for fits into the overall, end-to-end business process. Using semantics has the potential to remove many of the tasks traditionally associated with application implementation projects, and deliver systems that provide business processes that can adapt and evolve as users explore business process efficiencies.
Peering into the Crystal Ball
When something can predict well, like the proverbial crystal ball, we think of it as smart. New technologies and techniques are helping predict outcomes, putting prediction power in the hands of consumers and addressing areas as fickle as a sales persons behavior.
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For instance, Delaycast.com uses predictive modeling to let consumers know if flights will be delayed or cancelled at certain U.S. airports, when, and for how long. The company has built mathematical models of the U.S. air transportation system that analyze flight delay and cancellation patterns and project them into the future. Enter the departure and arrival airports, airline, flight time and time of day and get an estimate of whether and for how long a flight will be delayed before it happens, as shown in Figure 41. of course, predicting the future is not an exact science. As Delaycast notes on its Web site: All of our predictions and
profiles are based on forward-looking models, and as such, are never 100% accurate. Looking forward, we cannot predict foul weather, the grounding of a fleet of MD80s or the landing of Air Force one. Nevertheless, the insight will help travelers avoid known troubles.176 Delaycast is a free Web service that makes powerful predictive technology an everyday consumer tool. Predicting flights is one thing, but what about predicting something less tangible like behavior? Predicting how a sales person will perform and improving his or her performance is the focus of Spring Lake Technologies. The companys SmartSeries software analyzes profiles of individual sales people,
Figure 42
Predictive software gives a sales person tips for an upcoming presentation to a prospective client based on an analysis of the sales
person and the prospect. The goal is to help the sales person be more aligned with the prospects behaviors and motivations, increasing the sales persons effectiveness. The meter reflects the alignment strength between the sales person and the prospect. The stronger the score, the more positive the alignment. This illustration shows that for the upcoming presentation, the sales person is not well aligned; the system predicts how the prospect will act in the presentation and gives selling recommendations for the sales person. Source: Spring Lake Technologies
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consisting of 20 behavioral attributes and 14 dominant traits, against a composite profile of the optimal sales person. The software integrates predictive technologies, applied behavioral science and the art of selling into an engine that predicts how sales people will behave, and provides customized recommendations for how to improve performance. The system gets smarter as people are added to (or subtracted from) the optimal profile composite. Individuals can also be analyzed for how they will perform with a particular client (too structured for the client? not structured enough?) based on an analysis of the clients profile and how the individuals behavior and traits map to it. (See Figure 42.) Similarly, prospective hires can be analyzed to predict the likelihood of their success before they join a new company.
the technology. Its all about working smart by leveraging what you know the characteristics of your top sales people and using metrics, not guesswork, to maximize performance and minimize the cost of hiring the wrong person. Predictive behavioral software is also being used to help marketers better understand consumer actions and target advertising accordingly. ValueClick Medias Precision BT software suite, launched in July 2008, applies predictive algorithms to behavioral targeting, helping marketers identify the best prospects from hundreds of consumer interest segments based on the marketers objectives and the consumers likelihood to take action in the future.177 Better predictors of behavior will find many uses in marketing, sales, operations and other areas.
Brain Power
It is difficult to assess behavior without sophisticated instrumentation. The SmartSeries software is based on research from over 25,000 sales profiles that measure characteristics of effectiveness; over 8,000 seller and buyer behavioral attributes; over 240,000 behavioral tendencies and sales best practices; and 144 complex buyer behaviors modeled by type. The software uses regression analysis and mathematical formulations to analyze profiles and generate individual recommendations for selling more effectively. Recommendations are situation specific, and the software self-learns with every interaction. As the sales person has additional interactions with the client, he answers additional questions about the client for the system, which gets smarter about the clients tendencies.
There are many ways to be smart, but how about tapping the brain directly? Heavy machinery operators in mines in Australia can wear a Smart Cap that senses fatigue by reading brain waves. (See Figure 43.) AngloCoal trialed the Smart Cap in February 2008; the cap transmits a fatigue rating (a single digit number) wirelessly to a computer in the vehicles cab or to a mobile phone, allowing the operator to be warned by a flashing display or an alarm. Tired drivers can be given a rest break, improving safety and productivity. The sensor technology in the cap is extremely precise, reading electrical scalp activity of just a few microvolts. The cap could potentially be used by drivers of all kinds of vehicles, including cars. Another brain-savvy system entering the market targets video gamers. Players can control action in a game by wearing a special headset from Emotiv Systems, available at the end of 2008, that reads brain waves. By merely concentrating on moving an object,
The predictive power of the software gives organizations new tools to hone employee skills and get everyone closer to being peak performers.
the player moves the object.178 In the lab, researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology are exploring how to tap brain waves to control a cursor (BrainBrowser) or operate a wheel chair (Aware Chair) by sensing certain wave activities as the user gazes at the computer or control screen. At Duke University, researchers have enabled a monkey, outfitted with electrodes in her brain, to walk a robotic dog by merely thinking about it. The prediction is that in 10
The predictive power of the software gives organizations new tools to hone employee skills and get everyone closer to being peak performers. often just a 10-15 percent increase in sales, which Spring Lake Technologies clients have reported, is significant. RightNow Technologies, Primavera Software and Advent Software have reported improved effectiveness with
years intelligent brain-computer interfaces that let people communicate mentally with objects and other people will be available commercially.179 If mind reading gets your attention, get this: researchers at the University of California at Berkeley have created software
78
moving full force in that direction. There are many possibilities for innovation between now and the Singularity. To take just one example, if we can understand protein folding, a problem scientists have been working on for 30 years, we can understand how life works, how diseases operate, and how to create exact drugs in days, not years, that do not require a lot of experimentation.182 Thats really, really smart. Computers will get smarter because of their ability to aggregate information from so many sources and minds, creating a collective wisdom like never before. Collective wisdom draws strength from the tenet that more brains are better than one; virtual markets that aggregate data from thousands and make predictions (e.g., the Hollywood Stock Exchange) are one example of this. However, acquiring and assimilating information from a broad range of sources is generally a very slow process. Having bots that can troll for data and not only find it but parse through it to bring meaning and understanding is the goal.
Computers will get smarter because of their ability to aggregate information from so many sources and minds, creating a collective
Figure 43
The Smart Cap (prototype on top) senses if you are tired; the finished cap with the circuitry concealed is below. The mobile phone shows the feedback display (a fatigue rating of 3). Source: CRCMining Australia
wisdom like never before.
of course, there is still the challenge of the quality of the (a decoder) that predicts brain activity based on what you are looking at. The decoders smarter understanding of what you are looking at or focusing on could eventually lead to mind reading.
180
wisdom itself. Even with all the data in the world, not everyone applies good wisdom or judgment. Collective wisdom depends on the crowd you are drawing from. Hopefully that crowd is sharp, diverse and well-intentioned. In the end, getting smart(er) is about being better informed and, as a result, having greater potential to make better decisions. It is like information transparency on steroids. organizations need to prepare for a smart(er) world, no matter what form it takes. For one thing is sure: Although fast will beat big, smart(er) will beat fast and everything is getting smart(er).
Along these lines, brain fingerprinting is a contro-
versial proposed investigative technique that measures brain wave responses to words, phrases or pictures to determine whether or not they are familiar to you. one application is lie detection,
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where do you know the person in this picture?
could elicit a different response through brain wave detection than what the person says.
GET SMART(ER) NoW

Although we still have decades to go on Kurzweils vision of a super-smart world if it even materializes we are nonetheless
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thriving on Disruption
The 21st century will be laden with digital disruptions. These disruptions are forming the foundation for a new economy, the Networked Information Economy. This economy, identified by Harvard professor yochai Benkler in his book The Wealth of Networks, finds value predominantly in the production, enhancement and sharing of information (e.g., financial services, accounting, software, science, ideas, designs, opinions) and cultural content (e.g., movies, books, music). Benkler argues that we are rapidly exiting the Industrial Information Economy, which merely placed an information layer atop the hard-goods-based industrial economy, and hurtling full-force into the Networked Information Economy. The change brought about by the networked information environment is deep, writes Benkler. It is structural. It goes to the very foundations of how liberal markets and liberal democracies have coevolved for almost two centuries.183 Benkler continues: A series of changes in the technologies, economic organization, and social practices of production in this environment has created new opportunities for how we make and exchange information, knowledge, and culture. These changes have increased the role of nonmarket and nonproprietary production, both by individuals alone and by cooperative efforts in a wide range of loosely or tightly woven collaborations.184 This speaks directly to the New Media, Living in a New Reality and Social Power disruptions, and indirectly to the other digital disruptions. These digital disruptions are powering the Networked Information Economy and may be the biggest challenge to the status quo the world has ever seen. The overall impact of todays digital disruptions may take years to be felt. W. Brian Arthur of the Sante Fe Institute writes that beneath the surface storms and uncertainties, the digitization of business is steadily transforming the economy, and the next two decades will see continually rising productivity, increasing For example, in New Wave of Waves we are already seeing a complementary infrastructure mature. What used to be independent infrastructures supporting telephony, cable TV and mobile voice are rapidly converging into a unified experience enabled by the Internet. The same holds true with data networking in the enterprise. No one would dream of standing up a network based on proprietary protocols or e-mail systems that cant communicate outside the enterprise, but this was exactly the case in the early 1990s. or, consider how the Platform Makeover trend towards cloud computing completely changes how we provision applications, data and other enterprise resources a strong indicator that infrastructures are aiming at higher levels of service and interoperability. In Living in a New Reality, virtual worlds are providing a global, sensory-filled fabric for people to participate in regardless of time and place. This is an entirely new infrastructure for remote collaboration. growth, and the inception of new industries.185 That growth will come from what Arthur calls new arrangements-of-use186 for the technologies, as complementary infrastructure is built to make full use of the new digital technologies. The digital disruptions we have described will be coupled with new arrangements-of-use so that enterprises and individuals can take full advantage of the disruptions.
The digitization of business is steadily transforming the economy, and the next two decades will see continually rising productivity, increasing growth, and the inception of new industries.
W. Brian Arthur
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DIGITAL DISRUPTIoNS
These new infrastructures are the basis for Information Transparency and its successor, a Smart(er) World. Both draw strength from unified communications we know more about people, places and things and can reason and predict better from these connections. Both benefit from more powerful, agile platforms that can analyze and make sense of enormous amounts of information rapidly. Platform Makeover will especially help a Smart(er) World as new materials beyond silicon provide enormous computational power that gets machines much closer to emulating the brain.
revolution to fully blossom are the 1,001 subtechnologies, arrangements, and architectures that adapt us to the new technologies and them to us. Their arrival takes time, and it defines the buildout period as one that creates the arrangements and subtechnologies that bring the new possibilities into full use.187 So put todays digital disruptions on your radar and realize they are a work in progress as supporting technologies and new behaviors take hold. Todays digital disruptions lay down important foundations and principles for the new economy to build and thrive on.
Building out these infrastructures in full will take time and

work. Arthur declares: . . . whats needed for the [information]
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notes
1. Clayton Christensen, The Innovators Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail (Harvard Business School Press: Boston, 1997), p. xv. Center for Digital Storytelling, http://www.storycenter.org/ http://h30400.www3.hp.com/ The Beta Males Charms, The New York Times, 7 February 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/07/fashion/07girlfriends.html?_r=1&sq=beta%20male&st=nyt&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin& scp=1&adxnnlx=1202761231-gS60wksKVomfwy55VHym8g See youTube video at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf9aE3Toepo&feature=related youTube effect felt beyond debates, CNN.com, 27 November 2007, http://www.cnn.com/2007/PoLITICS/11/26/youtube.debate/index.html. See video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r90z0PMnKwI Thumbs Race as Japans Best Sellers Go Cellular, The New York Times, 20 January 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/20/world/asia/20japan.html Six Leaps of Innovation Kelly Rodriques and Paul Schiff, Blowtorch, Fortune, 27 December 2007. http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0712/gallery.sixleaps.fortune/6.html Blowtorch Ignites a New Model to Entertain, Engage and Connect young Adults, Blowtorch press release, 16 November 2007. http://www.allbusiness.com/media-telecommunications/movies-sound-recording/5308344-1.html Up next: Cameras that know who you photographed, CNET News.com, 14 November 2007. http://www.news.com/8301-13580_3-9816371-39.html Netflix Partners With LG to Bring Movies Straight to TV, The New York Times, 3 January 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/03/technology/03netflix.html?em&ex=1199509200&en=e9881b82c236e3fb&ei=5087%0A Ibid. TiVo, youTube to deliver videos to TVs, MSNBC.com, 12 March 2008. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23599036/ youTube Coming to TV, With TiVo the Gateway, The New York Times, 13 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/13/technology/13tivo.html In CBS Test, Mobile Ads Find Users, The New York Times, 6 February 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/06/technology/06mobile.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin yuMe Ad Gallery, http://www.yume.com/ad_gallery/gallery.html Download This: Dynamic Downloadable Advertising is Going to Be Big in 2008, Beet.TV, 26 December 2007. http://www.beet.tv/2007/12/download-this-d.html Ibid.
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19. 20. See video under i3media, http://www.activamultimedia.com/am/v_portal/apartados/pl_basica.php?te=157&idm=151 Behold Hulu, Hollywoods answer to youTube, Fortune, 29 october 2007. http://bigtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2007/10/29/behold-hulu-hollywoods-answer-to-youtube/ Who Won the Writers Strike?, The New York Times, 12 February 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/arts/television/12strike.html?ref=arts; and Writers Guild of America Contract 2007 Proposals, http://www.wga.org/subpage_member.aspx?id=2485 Virtual World Population: 50 million by 2011, GigaOM, 20 May 2007. http://gigaom.com/2007/05/20/virtual-world-population-50-million-by-2011/ Second Earth, Technology Review, July/August 2007. http://www.technologyreview.com/printer_friendly_article.aspx?id=18911 An example of hosting a conference in Second Life is at https://veodia.com/blog.html (see 28 September 2007 blog entry). Second Life Grid examples, http://secondlifegrid.net/how/research_and_concept_testing, http://secondlifegrid.net/how/simulation_and_prototyping Missing girl hunt hits cyber world, CNN.com, 12 June 2007. http://www.cnn.com/2007/WoRLD/europe/06/12/mccann.virtual/index.html IBM and Linden Lab Launch Collaboration to Further Advance the 3D Internet, press release, 10 october 2007. http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/22428.wss Qwaq, Intel Collaborate on Enhanced Virtual Workspace Product, press release, 20 September 2007. http://www.qwaq.com/company/press_releases/pr-2007_09_20.php SAM Audiovisual Weather Services, http://www.activamultimedia.com/am/v_portal/apartados/pl_productos.php?te=193&idm=151 For insight into the complex Pinocchio-like process of creating Sam, see http://www.meteosam.com/eng/index.php. Click on His secrets for a cool and informative video. Full-on Rock Band Makes Jamming Follow-Up to Guitar Hero, Wired, 14 September 2007. http://www.wired.com/print/gaming/gamingreviews/magazine/15-10/mf_harmonix Grand Slam tennis thats out of this world, The Sydney Morning Herald, 12 January 2007. http://www.smh.com.au/news/biztech/what-a-racquet/2007/01/12/1168105128562.html Vehicle operations simulator with augmented reality, U.S. Patent 7246050, 16 June 2006. http://www.freepatentsonline.com/7246050.html Jay David Bolter and Blair MacIntyre, Is It Live or Is It AR?, IEEE Spectrum, August 2007. http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/aug07/5377 Vets pay tribute to fallen comrades at virtual Vietnam wall, CNN.com, 1 April 2008. http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/04/01/vietnam.wall/index.html
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35. Iraqi Checkpoint training using virtual humans to learn cultural gestures, X3D case study, Web3D Consortium. http://www.web3d.org/casestudies/detail/iraqi-checkpoint-training-using-virtual-humans-to-learn-cultural-gestures/ Peter L. Freddolino, Anton S. Arkhipov, Steven B. Larson, Alexander McPherson and Klaus Schulten, Molecular dynamics simulations of the complete satellite tobacco mosaic virus, Structure, 14 March 2006, pp. 437-449. A good paper on telepresence is the Human Productivity Labs Telepresence, Effective Visual Collaboration and the Future of Global Business at the Speed of Light, by Howard S. Lichtman, August 2006. http://www.humanproductivitylab.com/telepresencepaper/index.php HeadThere, http://www.headthere.com/applications.html#Telecommuting If the Mirror Could Talk (It Can), The New York Times, 18 March 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/18/fashion/18mirror.html Jane McGonigal, Ph.D., Superheroes 2.0, presentation at TTI/Vanguard, Barcelona, Spain, 17 July 2007, pp. 3-5, 7. Jane McGonigal, Ph.D., Alternate Realities: A Game Designers Perspective on the Future of Happiness, presentation at TTI/Vanguard, Barcelona, Spain, 17 July 2007, p. 14. Tell me the future, The Guardian, 3 December 2007. http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/dec/03/mondaymediasection.internet open Social: a new universe of social applications all over the web, Marc Andreessen Blog, 31 october 2007. http://blog.pmarca.com/2007/10/open-social-a-n.html The New openSocial Now a Little Less Googley, Good Morning Silicon Valley, 25 March 2008. Microsoft Partners With Social Networks To Improve Data Portability, Online Media Daily, 26 March 2008. http://publications.mediapost.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Articles.san&s=79248&Nid=40828&p=913539 Rob Cross, Roger Martin and Leigh Weiss, The Ties that Bind: Driving Financial Return through Networks, Network Roundtable at the University of Virginia white paper, 2007, p. 8. NewsGator Delivers Corporate Social Computing Platform for Universal McCann, press release, 9 June 2008. http://www.newsgator.com/CompanyInfo/Press/Archive.aspx?post=158 one Small Step for Socialcast, one Giant Leap for Enterprise Social Networking, InformationWeek, Startup City Blog, 9 May 2008. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2008/05/one_small_step_2.html This idea of using social tools for enterprise knowledge management is put forth in Next Generation Knowledge Management with Web 2.0, a CSC Technology Grant paper by Pablo Bermejo Garca, February 2008. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/mds/mds435/843.shtml Google Maps and Twitter are Essential Information Resources for California Fires, InformationWeeks Digital Life Weblog, 24 october 2007. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2007/10/google_maps_and.html
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51. The Red Shift Theory, InformationWeek, 18 August 2007, p. 2. http://www.informationweek.com/hardware/showArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=4CICMFIHIMSMoQSNDLRSKHSCJUNN2JVN? articleID=201800873&pgno=2&queryText= Live From SXSW: Zuckerberg Keynote Crumbles Into Chaos, TechNewsWorld, 10 March 2008. http://www.technewsworld.com/story/Live-From-SXSW-Zuckerberg-Keynote-Crumbles-Into-Chaos-62044.html. An interesting analysis showing tweets integrated into a video of the keynote is at http://www.marrowbones.com/commons/technosocial/2008/03/anatomy_of_a_mob_the_lacyzucke.html Twittering Journalist offers Wisdom To Advertising Flacks, online Spin Blog, 7 March 2008. http://blogs.mediapost.com/spin/?p=1250 Campaign Reporting in Under 140 Taps, The New York Times, 21 January 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/21/technology/21link.html?_r=1&oref=slogin Alternative lending sites often have good deals, USA Today, 25 December 2007. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2007-12-25-peerlending-pers_N.htm Virgin Money Web Site Launches With CSC, CSC case study, 2007, http://www.csc.com/solutions/hostingservices/casestudies/5250.shtml?ref=hp_thumb In addition to the United States, Virgin Money operates sites for the United Kingdom, Australia and South Africa. Alternative lending sites often have good deals, USA Today, 25 December 2007. http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2007-12-25-peerlending-pers_N.htm WoMMA Buyers Guide Keller Fay Group, http://buyers.womma.org/companies/keller-fay-group/; and Brad Fay, Co-Founder Keller Fay Group, Wins ARFs Prestigious Grand Innovation Award, press release, 13 April 2007, http://kellerfay.com/news/News%20Release%20-%20ARF%20Award.pdf New PQ Media Forecast: Word-of-Mouth Marketing Spending To Break $1 Billion in 2007, press release, 15 November 2007. http://www.prwebdirect.com/releases/2007/11/prweb569807.htm Top 10 US Social-Network and Blog-Site Rankings Issued for March [2008], MarketingCharts, http://www.marketingcharts.com/interactive/top-10-us-social-network-and-blog-site-rankings-issued-for-march-4289/ nielsen-online-top-10-social-networking-sites-us-march-2008jpg/ FoX Sports, MySpace & NFL to create online destination for SB XLII ads, FoX Sports, 24 May 2007. http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/6843838 New PQ Media Forecast: Word-of-Mouth Marketing Spending To Break $1 Billion in 2007, press release, 15 November 2007. http://www.prwebdirect.com/releases/2007/11/prweb569807.htm Digital Restrictions Management Hits a Snag: Digg Users Stand Up for Fair Use, 3 May 2007, http://www.saschameinrath.com/blog_tags/drm Social Contract (Rousseau), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Social_Contract Stolen Laptop Helps Turn Tables on Suspects, The New York Times, 10 May 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/nyregion/10laptop.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
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66. Medtronic Launches New Guardian Real-Time System with Miniature Transmitter and Carelink Personal Software, press release, 19 March 2007. http://wwwp.medtronic.com/Newsroom/NewsReleaseDetails.do?itemId=1174306815850&lang=en_US Google Caves to Pentagon Wishes, InformationWeeks Google Weblog, 7 March 2008. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2008/03/google_caves_to.html InfoWorld Futures Project Interview with Paul Saffo, 1997, http://www.saffo.com/aboutps/interviews/infoworld.php Insurance Fears Lead Many to Shun DNA Tests, The New York Times, 24 February 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/24/health/24dna.html?_r=1&oref=slogin you Are What you Post, BusinessWeek, 27 March 2006. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_13/b3977071.htm Technology and the tired trucker: Why the trucking industry resists onboard recorders, Computerworld, 17 March 2008. http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=313196 CSC Launches New Location Awareness Solution at the 2008 Amgen Tour of California, press release, 12 February 2008. http://www.csc.com/newsandevents/news/12529.shtml David Robinson, Harlan yu, William P. Zeller and Edward W. Felten, Government Data and the Invisible Hand, draft, to appear in final form in the Yale Journal of Law and Technology, Volume 11, Fall 2008, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1138083; and Study says Uncle Sam should get out of Web publishing business, Computerworld, 5 June 2008, http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9093938&source=NLT_PM&nlid=8 See the Whos emitting mercury? map at http://www.usatoday.com/news/mercury-emitter-map.htm See video and additional information at http://www.epa.gov/nationaldialogue/index.html Linda T. Kohn, Janet M. Corrigan and Molla S. Donaldson, Editors, Committee on Quality of Health Care in America, Institute of Medicine, To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 2000), Executive Summary, p. 1. http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=9728&page=1 Health Care Costs 101, 2008 Edition California Healthcare Foundation, slide 3. Data based on projections from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), office of the Actuary. Visualizing Electronic Health Records With Google-Earth for the Body, IEEE Spectrum, January 2008. http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jan08/5854 Health Cares New Dimension, Virginia Business online, September 2000. http://www.gatewayva.com/biz/virginiabusiness/magazine/yr2000/sep00/lynch.html Voters Care About Information Technology in Healthcare, CSC Survey Finds, February 2008. http://www.csc.com/government/ds/11250-health_it_voter_survey?ref=lsl Larry Dignan, Mashup Ecosystem Poised to Explode, blog post, 27 January 2006. http://blogs.zdnet.com/BTL/?p=2484
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82. 83. 84. 85. 86. 87. 88. 89. 90. http://www.mashupfeed.com/ Data as of 26 August 2008. Transparent Real Estate, http://transparentre.com/2007/01/02/new-ideas-for-2007.aspx http://mashmaker.intel.com http://www.mapbuilder.net/ http://googlemashupeditor.blogspot.com/ Richard Feynman explains in this brief video: http://www.cnbc.cmu.edu/~masmith/media/feynman_long.mov Dwight A. Johnson, The Radio Legacy of the R.M.S. Titanic, 28 December 1998, http://www.avsia.com/djohnson/titanic.html 700 MHz Explained in 10 Steps, GigaOM, 14 March 2007. http://gigaom.com/2007/03/14/700mhz-explained/ 700 MHz to be LTE heavy, RCR Wireless, 4 April 2008. http://www.rcrnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080404/SUB/581566019 Ibid. Ibid. 700 MHz Explained in 10 Steps, GigaoM, 14 March 2007, http://gigaom.com/2007/03/14/700mhz-explained/; and Sprint hints at cutback on ambitious nationwide WiMax rollout , InfoWorld, 12 November 2007, http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/11/12/Sprint-hints-at-cutback-on-ambitious-nationwide-WiMax-rollout_1.html (WiMAX estimate). TV White Space Holds the Key for Broadband Wireless Internet Access for Millions of People Still Living without Broadband, FireceWireless, 13 December 2007. http://www.fiercewireless.com/press-releases/tv-white-space-holds-key-broadband-wireless-internet-access-millionspeople-still-liv?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal Google Plan Would open TV Band for Wireless Use, The New York Times, 25 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/business/media/25google.html Internet-a-Gogo: Airlines to offer In-Flight Access, The Wall Street Journal, 19 June 2008. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121382851874286403.html (Subscription required). Also at: http://webreprints.djreprints.com/1972500433907.html FMC market forecast to top $46B in 2010, FMC subscribers to top 38M; UMA here to stay, says new Infonetics report, press release, 4 october 2007, http://www.infonetics.com/cgp/b-a.asp?sID=66 (Registration required.) Infonetics Research: T-Mobile USA, orange heat up FMC infrastructure market; FMC phones hit $27B in 2007, press release, 11 April 2008, http://www.infonetics.com/cgp/b-a.asp?sID=66 (Registration required.) Alaska Airlines Working With Row 44 To Launch Inflight Wireless Internet Service, press release, 18 September 2007. http://www.alaskasworld.com/Newsroom/ASNews/ASstories/AS_20070918_080507.asp
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100. Emirates, http://www.emirates.com/us/english/flying/staying_connected/staying_connected.aspx, Qantas, http://www.qantas.com.au/info/flying/inTheAir/communications. Also see WiFi in the sky: Airlines prepare Cabin Hotspots, The Wall Street Journal, 3 April 2007, http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/sB117555160709857409.html (subscription required.) 101. Mobile WiMAX to reach 80m subscribers within 5 Years, Assuming Device Availability and Differentiated services, According to Juniper research, press release, 11 December 2007. http://www.emediawire.com/releases/2007/12/emw575540.htm see the latest WiMAX deployments at http://www.wimax.com/commentary/blog/blog-2008/where-in-the-world-are-wimax-networks Intel Looks to 2008 for WiMax push, eWeek, 1 August 2007. http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,2165070,00.asp Tech Firms to Build WiMax network in u.s., The Wall Street Journal, 8 May 2008. http://online.wsj.com/article/sB121015567027273579.html (subscription required.) nextWave signs on Alcatel-Lucent for WiMAX TV, FierceBroadbandWireless, 13 March 2008. http://www.fiercebroadbandwireless.com/story/nextwave-signs-on-alcatel-lucent-for-wimax-tv/2008-03-13?utm_ medium=nl&utm_source=link In-stat data as reported in http://www.cellular-news.com/story/28029.php Israeli company develops radar system that sees through walls, Haaretz.com, 11 June 2008. http://haaretz.com/hasen/spages/991793.html This paragraph is developed from this article. Adrew Lippman and David p. reed, Viral Communications, MIT Media Laboratory white paper, 19 May 2003. Gnu radio, http://gnuradio.org/trac/wiki; and Gnu radio suggested reading, http://gnuradio.org/trac/wiki/suggestedreading radios Get smart, IEEE Spectrum, 1 February 2007, p. 4. http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/feb07/4892 Ibid. Joint Tactical radio system, problems and restructuring, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JTrs#problems_and_restructuring Connected World: redefining the Geography of Business and How We Work and play, CsC Leading Edge Forum, september 2006, p. 24. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/knowledgelibrary/uploads/1139_1.pdf Boeing Begins production of Joint Tactical radio system Ground Mobile radios Engineering Models, press release, 8 January 2008. http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2008/q1/080108a_nr.html Connected World, p. 24. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/knowledgelibrary/uploads/1139_1.pdf Thales Announces Liberty: The First Multiband software Defined Land Mobile radio All Bands, All Modes, Full Encryption in one radio, press release, 26 March 2008. https://secure.thalescomminc.com/newsroom_details.asp?ID=321 The term on orbit is common in the space community. It is used to distinguish from a spacecraft that is in a lab, in a test facility, on the launch pad, or in its ascent phase. It also implies that the spacecraft is in the correct orbit, not just any orbit.
102.
103. 104.
105.
106. 107.
108. 109.
110. 111. 112. 113.
114.
115. 116.
117.
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118. Edward Criscuolo, software Defined radio, CsC Technology Grant, november 2007. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/mds/mds435/843.shtml Lippman and reed, Viral Communications, p. 5. share and share Alike, Wi-Fi Planet News, 9 october 2007. http://www.wi-fiplanet.com/news/article.php/3704146 Global Dreams for a Wireless Web, The New York Times, 25 May 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/25/technology/25web.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1 Lippman and reed, Viral Communications, p. 1. Connected World, pp. 67-81. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/knowledgelibrary/uploads/1139_1.pdf paper Is out, Cellphones Are In, The New York Times, 18 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/18/technology/18check.html?_r=1&oref=slogin Connected World, p. 26. http://www.csc.com/aboutus/leadingedgeforum/knowledgelibrary/uploads/1139_1.pdf nanoCELL, http://www.rivanetworks.com/nano/nano.htm Lawrence Lessig, The Future of Ideas: The Fate of the Commons in a Connected World (new York: random House, 2001), p. 21. self-service, prorated supercomputing Fun!, open All the Code Thats Fit to print, new York Times Blog, 1 november 2007. http://open.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/11/01/self-service-prorated-super-computing-fun/?scp=1-b&sq=prorated+ supercomputing+fun&st=nyt Times to stop Charging for parts of Its Web site, The New York Times, 18 september 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/18/business/media/18times.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin The new York Times Archives + Amazon Web services = TimesMachine, open All the Code Thats Fit to print, new York Times Blog, 21 May 2008. http://open.blogs.nytimes.com/tag/s3/ Cisco unveils nexus 7000 series Data Center-Class platform, press release, 28 January 2008. http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2008/prod_012808b.html Ciscos new Data Center plan Looks promising. What Will IBM Think?, BusinessWeek Tech Beat Blog, 28 January 2008. http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2008/01/ciscos_new_data.html Cherrypal, http://cherrypal.com/ Coming soon, to Any Flat surface near You, The New York Times, 30 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/business/30novelties.html unlock the big screen experience from small devices, Microvision, http://www.microvision.com/pico_projector_displays/embedded.html
119. 120. 121.
122. 123. 124.
125. 126. 127. 128.
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136. The future of computers, Hewlett-Packard, http://h71028.www7.hp.com/eNewsletter/cache/599441-0-0-225-121.html?jumpid=em_di_384564_US_US_0_000&diaid= di_hpc_us_637441_US&dimid=1008769118&dicid=taw_July08&mrm=1-4BVUP This paragraph is developed from this article. Industry Giants Try to Break Computings Dead End, The New York Times, 19 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/technology/19compute.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin Intel shows off 80-core processor, ZDNet News, 11 February 2007. http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-6158181.html Industry Giants Try to Break Computings Dead End, The New York Times, 19 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/19/technology/19compute.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin Apple in Parallel: Turning the PC World Upside Down?, The New York Times, 10 June 2008. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/10/apple-in-parallel-turning-the-pc-world-upside-down/ Inside Intel Larrabee, eWeek, 7 August 2008. http:/ /www.eweek.com/c/a/Infrastructure/Inside-Intel-Larrabee/ First Details on a Future Intel Design Codenamed Larrabee, press release, 4 August 2008. http://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/20080804fact.htm?iid=SEARCH Intel Details Larrabee Processor Architecture, eWeek, 4 August 2008. http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Desktops-andNotebooks/Intel-Details-Larrabee-Processor-Architecture/?kc=EWKNLENT08082008STR1 Apple in Parallel: Turning the PC World Upside Down?, The New York Times, 10 June 2008. http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/10/apple-in-parallel-turning-the-pc-world-upside-down/ Apple Previews Mac oS X Snow Leopard to Developers, press release, 9 June 2008. http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2008/06/09snowleopard.html How big (or small) is a nanometer?, http://www.egr.msu.edu/~mackay/nanometer/nanometer.htm Researchers develop combat helmet with smart nanotechnology sensors, NanoWerk News, 7 March 2008. http://www.nanowerk.com/news/newsid=4866.php Fiber-based Nanotechnology Could Power Electronic Devices, press release, 13 February 2008. http://www.gatech.edu/newsroom/release.html?id=1715 Ibid. Beam It Down from the Web, Scotty, The New York Times, 7 May 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/07/technology/07copy.html?_r=2&scp=1&sq=3D+printing&st=nyt&oref=slogin&oref=slogin See Z Corporations video for the ZPrinter 450 under Spotlight at: http://www.zcorp.com/ Productive Nanosystems: A Technology Roadmap, Sponsored by the Foresight Nanotech Institute, Battelle, the Waitt Family Foundation, Sun Microsystems and Zyvex Labs, 2007, Executive Summary, p. xiii. http://www.foresight.org/roadmaps/Nanotech_Roadmap_2007_main.pdf J. Storrs Hall, Nanofuture: Whats Next for Nanotechnology (New york: Prometheus Books, 2005), p. 26.
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154. 155. 156. How DNA Computers Will Work, http://computer.howstuffworks.com/dna-computer.htm USC Laboratory for Molecular Science, http:/ /www.usc.edu/dept/molecular-science/ (Click on DNA Computing.) Computer Made from DNA and Enzymes, National Geographic News, 24 February 2003. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/pf/37540047.html Molecular Computer Developed To Perform Calculations From Within Human Body, Medindia.com, 25 February 2006. http://www.medindia.net/news/view_news_main.asp?x=8108 Computer Made from DNA and Enzymes, National Geographic News, 24 February 2003. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/pf/37540047.html This paragraph is developed from this article. How DNA Computers Will Work, http://computer.howstuffworks.com/dna-computer2.htm Chemists Report Important Step Toward Building Molecular Computers, ScienceDaily, 25 January 2007, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/01/070124175450.htm; and A New Type of Molecular Switch, Technology Review, 4 September 2007, http://www.technologyreview.com/Nanotech/19329/?a=f What Is Quantum?, The Mitre Digest, February 2008. Speed-of-light computing comes a step closer, New Scientist, 18 July 2007. http://technology.newscientist.com/channel/tech/mg19526136.400-speedoflight-computing-comes-a-step-closer.html IBM Unveils a Prototype Green optical Network Technology for Sharing Huge Files in Seconds, press release, 28 February 2008. http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/23607.wss Replacing Wire With Laser, Sun Tries to Speed Up Data, The New York Times, 24 March 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/24/technology/24wafer.html?_r=1&oref=slogin This paragraph is developed from this article. Ibid. Ray Kurzweil, The Law of Accelerating Returns, http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/articles/art0134.html? Semantic Wave 2008 Report: Industry Roadmap to Web 3.0 & Multibillion Dollar Market opportunities, Project 10X, Executive Summary, February 2008, p. 10. Ibid., p. 8. Ibid., p. 20. Ibid., p. 4. This paragraph is developed from this report. Ibid., p. 3. http://www.freebase.com/
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159. 160.
161. 162.
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173. Case Study: PoPS NASAs Expertise Location Service Powered by Semantic Web Technologies, W3C Case Study, February 2008. http://www.w3.org/2001/sw/sweo/public/UseCases/Nasa/ Aaron Mannes and Jennifer Golbeck, Building a Terrorism ontology, http://www.mindswap.org/papers/Terrorontologyfinal.pdf See Metatomix Boiler Room video at http://www.metatomix.com/knowledgecenter/boilerRoom.php The Delaycast Engine, http://www.delaycast.com/about.html ValueClick To Launch Predictive Behavioral Targeting, MediaPost Publications, 21 July 2008. http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.san&s=86905&Nid=45235&p=913539 Moving Mountains With the Brain, Not a Joystick, The New York Times, 8 June 2008, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/technology/08novel.html. See Emotiv Systems at http://emotiv.com William E. Halal, A First for Thought Power, TechCast, 3 February 2008. http://www.techcast.org/Commentary.aspx?ID=139 Brain Scanner Can Tell What youre Looking At, Wired, 5 March 2008. http://www.wired.com/print/science/discoveries/news/2008/03/mri_vision http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_fingerprinting The Protein Folding Problem, http://www.ram.org/research/pfp.html yochai Benkler, The Wealth of Networks (New Haven and London: yale University Press, 2006), p. 1. Ibid., p. 2. W. Brian Arthur, Why Tech Is Still The Future, Fortune, 24 November 2003. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2003/11/24/353778/index.htm W. Brian Arthur, Is the Information Revolution Dead?, March 2002, pp. 5 and 6. http://www.ebusinessforum.gr/old/content/downloads/IstheInformationRevolutionDead.pdf Ibid., p. 5.
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aCknoWleDgMents
Alex Fuss conducted the research for this LEF report as the 2008 LEF Associate. A seasoned technologist with over 25 years of domestic and international experience, Alex specializes in researching and leveraging leading edge technologies to build enterprise architectures for innovative products and services, primarily in the financial services industry. As a director of technology he has led many technology and technology governance client engagements. He presents frequently at conferences and is currently co-authoring a book, Real-World SOA, to be published by Sys-Con Media. Working on Digital Disruptions has deepened Alexs appreciation for the accelerated speed of innovation and the unprecedented impact it promises to have on all aspects of our lives. The fantastic technology advances in computing platforms and wireless communication are laying the groundwork for new media, virtual worlds, social networks and better information transparency, all of which will change how we do business. The end result is a smarter world, with machines aiding humans like never before. Alex feels smarter already, having worked on Digital Disruptions with countless experts and luminaries forging our digital world. With his LEF assignment complete, Alex has returned to CSCs Financial Services Sector (FSS) office of the CTo, where he is helping shape FSSs open source software strategy. Alex received a B.A. in computer science and philosophy from Columbia University and is a PMI-certified project manager. He resides in New york City.
afuss@csc.com
The LEF thanks the many others who contributed to the Digital Disruptions report. Special thanks to Lisa Braun, senior writer, for bringing the ideas together.
Anisha Ahluwalia, Denuo Group Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute Jeff Barr, Amazon.com Michael Berman, Art Center College of Design Adam Berrey, Brightcove Jay Bolter, Georgia Institute of Technology Daniel Bongers, CRCMining Australia Liesl Capper, MyCyberTwin Ed Criscuolo, CSC Rob Cross, University of Virginia Corre Curtice, CSC Steve DAngelo, Spring Lake Technologies Anil Dash, Six Apart Mills Davis, Project10X Jean Delahousse, Mondeca Kobus Du Plessis, CSC Rajiv Dulepet, WiseWindow Travis Durick, PePWave Phil Edholm, Nortel Dan Foltz, CSC Dennis Franklin, CSC Scott Fraser, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency David Gilmour, Tacit Software Michael Greene, CSCS Paul Gustafson, CSC NIls Magnus Haldorsen, CSC Josh Hawkins, Brightcove Gregory Hilton, ICE Innovative Technologies Jeanne Holm, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Jeff Holmes, CSC J.B. Holston, NewsGator Technologies Holly Huntley, CSC Jan C.J. Jones, Forest Rose Productions Peter Knights, University of Queensland Bill Koff, CSC Paul Lever, University of Queensland Todd Lucas, CSC Ed Luczak, CSC Ben Machin, CSC Blair MacIntyre, Georgia Institute of Technology Dan Malks, JackBe Richard Mandelbaum, Xynetics Group Steve Mann, University of Toronto Neil Martin, formerly D-Wave Systems, now MetaRAM Eric Miller, Zepheira Michael I. Miller, Animetrics Regina Moldovan, Nortel David Moschella, CSC Dan Munyan, CSC Douglas Neal, CSC Debra oGrady, CSC Uche ogbuji, Zepheira Michael osias, IBM Maniam Palanivelu, Nortel Jon Pilkington, Metatomix Brian Ralphs, BP David P. Reed, MIT Media Lab Ashley Roach, NewsGator Technologies Patrick Sautin, CSC Harriet Schabes, Ishto Paul Schuepp, Animetrics Kenneth Senne, MIT Lincoln Laboratory Nati Shalom, GigaSpaces Ehud Shapiro, Weizmann Institute of Science Paul Shen, TVU networks Jonathan Silverman, D-Wave Systems Tomas Soderstrom, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Gary Spangler, DuPont Peter Steinlauf, Edmunds Walter Steinlin, Swisscom Simon Stokes, CSC Marcin Strzalkowski, InteliWISE John Taylor, Educational Testing Service Robert Wah, CSC Chris Warner, JackBe Helen Payne Watt, Virgin Money Carl Wu, CSC John Zakos, MyCyberTwin
93
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About CSC The mission of CSC is to be a global leader in providing tehnology enabled business solutions and services. With the broadest range of capabilities, CSC offers clients the solutions they need to manage complexity, focus on core businesses, collaborate with partners and clients, and improve operations. CSC makes a special point of understanding its clients and provides experts with real-world experience to work with them. CSC is vendor-independent, delivering solutions that best meet each clients unique requirements. For more than 50 years, clients in industries and governments worldwide have trusted CSC with their business process and information systems outsourcing, systems integration and consulting needs. The company trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CSC.
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Technology Innovations Powering 21st Century Business

Leading Edge Forum 2008

DIGTAL TRUST | LEADING ABoUT THE VoL. 8

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LEF LEADERSHIP WILLIAM KoFF PAUL GUSTAFSoN

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Leading Edge Forum 2008

Why Digital Is More Disruptive New Media

Living in a New Reality

New Wave of Waves

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Why Digital is More Disruptive

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We have met the new media, and it is us.

TV (AND EVERyTHING ELSE) oN My TERMS

Figure 1 T HE E ME R GE N C E A N D R I S E oF MASS S o CIAL ME DIA

Movies Radio Print

Podcasts Vlogs Forums Wikis Enterprise 2.0 Platforms Consumer Control

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Figure 2 BRI GH TCoV E S P L Ay E R E NAB LE S VIE WE RS To S PRE AD T H E Wo RD A Bo UT D UP o NT S S C I E NC E STo R I E S

oTHER oPTIoNS ACCESSIBLE VIA PLAyER MENU

NEw KId oN ThE BLoCK: VIdEo

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PICTurE ThIs: FINdINg IT

On the Internet, advertisers long for an automatic way to match ads to

technology from IntelliVid is helping store owners cut down on shoplifting

Getting Out of the Box

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TV and video content is getting out of its original box.

Source: TVU networks

NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg

Connecting the Dots

Continued on the following page >

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NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg (continued)

online ads go video

Source: ICE Innovative Technologies

Continued on the following page >

NEw MEdIA ChANgEs ThE FACE oF AdVErTIsINg (continued)

to change ads in its new Media Player.18

shop the show

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living in a neW reality

it started as a social site, Second Life is fast being adopted for

L E A D IN G E D G E| Fo RU M DIGTAL TRUST VoL. 8

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A Qwaq Forums virtual auditorium is used to present a

Manage real data centers using IBM Labs virtual 3D

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Figure 9 V I RTUAL Wo RLD PLAT Fo RMS A SAMPLE

S ECo ND LIFE o P ENS IM (BE TA ) Wo NDERLAND (BE TA)

Entertainment/Multipurpose Entertainment/Multipurpose Enterprise/Multipurpose

Vendor Self Vendor/Self

Enterprise/Collaboration Enterprise/Training Multipurpose Development Platform Multipurpose Development Platform

Vendor/Self Vendor/Self Self Self

Multipurpose Development Platform

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