After The Spring

After the Spring
May 2, 2012 www.arabyouthsurvey.com

Bahrain | Egypt | Iraq | Jordan | Kuwait | Lebanon | Libya | Oman | Qatar | Saudi Arabia | Tunisia | UAE
Objectives
ASDAA Burson-Marsteller commissioned Penn Schoen Berland (PSB) to carry out the survey among Arab na>onal youth aged 18-24 in 12 Middle East countries: the six countries of the Gulf Coopera>on Council (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait), Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Iraq and, for the rst >me, Libya and Tunisia. The research was designed to uncover country dierences and common trends, looking at concerns and priori>es such as: Views of the impact of the Arab Spring Economic and social concerns AYtudes towards democracy Views of foreign na>ons Personal and social values Media consump>on trends Social media habits
Methodology
The study was commissioned to explore aYtudes among Arab na>onal youth in 12 Middle East countries. PSB conducted 2,500 face-to-face interviews among respondents aged 18-24 from December 2011-January 2012. Sample details are given below:
New in 2011
UAE N=250
Dubai 40% Muscat 50% Doha 55% Sharjah 20% Abu Dhabi 40% Ba>nah 50% Al Rayyan 45% Manama 100% Riyadh 40% Dammam 20%
New in 2012
Tunisia
N=200
Tunis (50%)
Oman N=150
Qatar N=200
Bahrain N=200
KSA N=250
Jeddah 40%
Kuwait N=200
Kuwait City -20% Al Hawalli 30th Al Ahmadi 20% Al Farwaniya 30%
Egypt N=250
Cairo 50% Alexandria 25% Mansoura 25%
Jordan N=200
Amman 50% Irbid 25%
Lebanon
N=200
East Beirut 40% West Beirut 40% Tripoli 20%
Iraq
N=200
Baghdad (50%) Irbil (25%)
Libya
N=200
Tripoli (50%)
Safaqis (25%) Benghazi (25%)
Zarqa 25%
Basrah (25%)
Susah (25%)
Misrata (25%)
2008/09 research was conducted using an online methodology 2009/10 and 2010/11 research was completed face-to-face 2012 data was weighted by market to ensure equal representa>on within the sample
Timeline
Protests in Benghazi, Libya, erupt (16.2.11) Osama Bin Laden killed by US forces (2.5.11) Mubarak goes on trial (3.8.11) EgypGans return to Tahrir Square to protest against the military (18.11.11) PalesGnian bid for UN Statehood (25.09.11) Tunisia celebrates one year from ousGng its leader (19.12.11)
Suicide of Tunisian vendor leads Mass protests against Mubarak to rst regime protests (25.1.11) (17.12.10)
January
February
March April May
June July
August
September
October
November
December January
Tunisian President President Ben Mubarak Ali ees to resigns Saudi Arabia (11.2.11) (14.1.11)
Mubarak charged with murder (21.5.11) ICC issues arrest warrant for Qadda (21.5.11)
Gadda killed (25.10.11)
AYS 2011 Dec. 2010/ Jan. 2011
NATO intervenes in Libya (19.3.11)
Protests spread to Syria (23.3.11)
AYS 2012 Dec. 2011/ Jan. 2012
Top 10 ndings
1
FAIR PAY AND HOME OWNERSHIP DISPLACE DESIRE FOR DEMOCRACY AS TOP PRIORITY
2
HIGH COST OF LIVING REMAINS THE GREATEST CONCERN AMONG ARAB YOUTH
3
ARAB YOUTH SAY THAT LACK OF DEMOCRACY AND CIVIL UNREST ARE THE BIGGEST OBSTACLES FACING THEM & THE REGION
4
REGIONAL YOUTH SEE THE ARAB SPRING AS A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT AND NOW FEEL GREATER OPTIMISM ABOUT THE FUTURE
5
ARAB YOUTH FEEL AN INCREASED SENSE OF TRUST IN GOVERNMENT BUT HAVE HEIGHTENED CONCERNS ABOUT CORRUPTION
6
THE ARAB SPRING WILL NOT SPREAD FURTHER, ACCORDING TO THE REGIONS YOUTH
7
TRADITIONAL VALUES ARE BEING INCREASINGLY CHALLENGED BY A MODERN OUTLOOK
8
THE UAE IS SEEN AS A MODEL NATION BY MIDDLE EAST YOUTH
9
ARAB YOUTH SEE FRANCE MOST FAVOURABLY AMONG ALL FOREIGN COUNTRIES; VIEWS OF CHINA AND INDIA ARE ALSO INCREASINGLY POSITIVE
10
NEWS CONSUMPTION SKYROCKETS, TV VIEWERSHIP DECLINES & BLOGS ARE BOOMING
1
Fair pay and home ownership displace desire for democracy as top priority
Top priorities
Q: How important are each of the following to you? (% very important)
82 63 65 68 58 62 64 51 51 70 62 50 50
61
58
55 55
57
54
58
2011
2012
Top priorities
Q: How important are each of the following to you? (% very important)
90 82 81 81 82 80 74
87 84 85 83 82 78 71
75 68 63 58
75 68 67 65 58 46 65 58 59 58 66 67 60 58 52 63 61 55
67 67 66 66 65 66 66 62 60 60 60
59
58
59 59 60 60 52
52 50 48 49
50 50
50 43
53 54
33
Being paid a fair wage
Owning my own home
Living in a democra>c country
Living without fear of terrorism
Having access to high speed internet
Among All Qatar Lebanon
Saudi Arabia Oman Tunisia
UAE Egypt Jordan
Kuwait Iraq
Bahrain Libya
2
High cost of living remains the greatest concern among Arab youth
Key concerns
Rising cost of living Dangers of drugs The economy Threat of terrorism The loss of tradi>onal values and Unemployment Standard of living Opportuni>es for women Middle East conicts Human rights Corrup>on in government and Rise of Islamist movements/role of Civil unrest Transport and road safety Personal debt The quality of educa>on 2012 2011
31 31 16 28 38 40 32 35 39 49 48 46 44 44 42 43 43 43 57 63
41 41 42 40 40 40 39 38 37
Q: How concerned would you say you are about each of the following issues? (% very concerned)
Added in 2012
10
Key concerns
Q: How concerned would you say you are about each of the following issues? (% very concerned)
74 68 64 65 63 63 62 60 61 62 60 58 56 49 48 44 65 59 50 51 46 46 36 35 31 23 22 51 51 46 54 55 51 41 46 44 44 43 60 56 54 49 41 37 39 32 25 27
63 59 53 48 57 57 59 54 48 42 42 41 33 43 39 52 50 46 37
63 58 48 47 46 44 43
44 41 40
32
Rising cost of living
Dangers of drugs
The economy
Threat of terrorism
The loss of tradiGonal values and culture
Unemployment
Among All
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Kuwait
Bahrain
Qatar
Oman
Egypt
Iraq
Libya
Lebanon
Tunisia
Jordan
11
Biggest challenges
Rising cost of living Corrup>on in gov't and public life The economy Unemployment Human rights Middle East conicts Personal debt Loss of tradi>onal values & culture Dangers of drugs Interna>onal conicts Crime / law and order The gap between rich and poor Standard of living in your country Civil unrest Transport and road safety Shortage of aordable housing Quality of educa>on Rise of Islamist movements/role of Islam Opportuni>es for women Shortage of good quality health care Lack of poli>cal franchise Access to clean water Reliable electricity supply Censorship/lack of press freedom Climate change & environment
16 24 27 42 33 33 46 54
12 15 16 12 15
22 19 19 18 21
25 26
15 13 14 14
21
10 11 11 10 10 11 10 6 9 9
Q: Which of the following would you say is the biggest challenge facing the Middle East today? (%)
15 18
8 7 8 6 7 8 6 6 6 9
11 12
2012
2011
12
Biggest challenges
Rising cost of living Corrup>on in gov't and public life The gap between the rich & poor The economy Unemployment Human rights Middle East conicts Domes>c poli>cal instability Personal debt Loss of tradi>onal values & culture Dangers of drugs Threat of terrorism Interna>onal conicts Crime /law and order Standard of living Transport and road safety Civil unrest
11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 13 13 17 16 16 22 22 23 21 20 20 19 19 22 19 23 23 27 25 25 27 29 33 34 32 36 37 35 42 41 43 54 52 56
Q: Which of the following would you say is the biggest challenge facing the Middle East today? (%)
Among All
GCC
Non- GCC
18 19
15 17 14 15 14 15
19
13
3
Arab youth say that lack of democracy and civil unrest are the biggest obstacles facing them & the region
14
Biggest obstacles
Q: What do you believe is the biggest obstacle facing the Middle East? (%)
55 49 45 46 41 41 40 41 39 39 42 45 41 42 37 44 38 55 48 43 38 29 30 30 27 27 22 19 45 37 30 29 24 22 21
53
36 32 25 20 26
34 35 27 28
26
28
27
26 26 24 21
27 24 25 23 24 23 22 23
22
19 18 16
10
Civil unrest
Lack of democracy
Pales>nian-Israeli conict
Lack of Arab unity
Lack of poli>cal direc>on
Among all Qatar Lebanon
Saudi Arabia Oman Tunsia
UAE Egypt Jordan
Kuwait Iraq
Bahrain Libya
15
Biggest obstacles
Q: What do you believe is the biggest obstacle facing the Middle East? (%)
44
41 41
43
37
40
30
27
25
27
29 25
23
24
22
Civil unrest
Lack of democracy
Pales>nian-Israeli conict
Lack of Arab unity
Lack of poli>cal direc>on
Among all
GCC
Non-GCC
16
4
Regional youth see the Arab Spring as a positive development and now feel greater optimism about the future
17
Increased optimism
Q: Thinking about the last five years, do you think things in your country of residence are going in the right direction or are they going in the wrong direction? (%)
12
11
30
27
Don't know Wrong DirecGon Right DirecGon
58
62
2011
2012
18
Increased optimism
Q: Thinking about the last five years, do you think things in your country of residence are going in the right direction or are they going in the wrong direction? (% right direction)
88 76 67 60 55 57 77 73
87 79 71 64 57 74 68 60 47 38 35 33 35 55 68 74
49 50
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Kuwait Bahrain Qatar
Oman
Egypt
Iraq
Libya Lebanon Tunsia
Jordan
GCC Non -GCC
2011
2012
19
Impact of the Arab Spring

Q: How far do you agree or disagree with the following? (%)
Agree a lot/somewhat
Disagree somewhat/a lot
Don't know
Following the uprisings across the Arab world, I feel the Arab world is beier o
72
24
As a result of the uprising, I feel I will be beier o in ve years
71
24
Following the uprising, I am personally beier o now than I was a year ago
68
28
20
Impact of the Arab Spring

Q: How far do you agree or disagree with the following? (% agree a lot/somewhat)
72 74 73
84 63 71
80 62
76
69
68
75
84 68 72 46 62 41 48 38 40 59 38 47 35
Following the uprisings across As a result of the uprising, I Following the uprising, I am Recent changes in my country Following the uprising in the the Arab world, I feel the Arab feel I will be beger o in ve personally beger o now than makes me feel anxious about Arab world, I feel uncertain world is beger o years I was a year ago what the future holds about the future of my country
Among All
Egypt
Bahrain
Tunsia
Libya
21
Optimism about the future

Q: Which of the following statements is closer to your view? (%)
6 28
6 24
4 16
7 24
1 33
7 27
5 20
33
29
28
35 50
26
Don't Know
66
70
81 61 66
70
65
66
66
76 60 46
I feel anxious about what the future will bring 66 I feel opGmisGc about what the future holds for my country
Among Saudi All Arabia
UAE
Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Oman Egypt
Iraq
Libya Lebanon Tunsia Jordan
22
Optimism about the future

10
7 24
9 18
15
13
15
8 20
13 Don't know 32
31
37
33 34
26
33 34
29 53
60
70
73 56 52 59 61
63 52
73 39
63
56
I feel like I have fewer opportuniGes now than I did a year ago I feel like I have more opportuniGes now than I did a year ago
UAE Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Oman Egypt
Iraq
Libya Lebanon Tunisia Jordan
23
Increased optimism
8 20 6 18 8 13 8 17 13 15 11 9 17 6 8 20 40 7 9 22 29 6 13 7 20 19 Don't know Our best days are behind us. 72 77 79 76 85 73 68 74 64 72 55 69 73 Our best days are ahead of us.
UAE
Iraq
24
5
Arab youth feel an increased sense of trust in government but have heightened concerns about corruption
25
Trust in government
Q: How far do you agree or disagree with the following? (% agree a lot/somewhat )
84 72 75 86 80 76 75 75 74 63 57 51 76
Q: How far do you agree or disagree with the following? (%) Your government has become more trustworthy and transparent since the Arab Spring
Agree a lot/somewhat 72 Disagree a lot/somewhat 18 10
Your government has become more trustworthy and transparent since the Arab Spring
Among All Qatar Lebanon
Saudi Araia Oman Tunisia
UAE Egypt Jordan
Kuwait Iraq
Bahrain Libya
26
Concerns about corruption

Q: How concerned are you about the following issue? (% very concerned)
66
Q: How concerned are you about the following issue? (% very concerned)
45 42 41 40 41 42 38 35 38 36 38 47
Corrup>on in government and public life
42 16
2012
2011
Corrup>on in government and public life Among All Qatar Lebanon Saudi Arabia Oman Tunisia UAE Egypt Jordan Kuwait Iraq Bahrain Libya
27
6
The Arab Spring will not spread further, according to the regions youth
28
Future protests
Q: Do you think the protests will spread to any new Arab countries? (%)
Yes No Don't know
Q: If yes, which countries do you think the protests are most likely to spread to next?
17
24
59
29
Future protests
Q: Do you think the protests will spread to any new Arab countries? (%)
17
14 28
24
17
19
18
14
18
11
13
14
21
20
15
31 53 75 62 62 62 61 57 Don't know No Yes 56 24 24 30 11 Iraq 28 26 28
59
66 60 60
62
58
60
20
12 UAE
17
22
22
18
19 GCC
Non GCC
30
7
Traditional values are being increasingly challenged by a modern outlook
31
Traditional vs. modern values

Q: Which of the following is closest to your view? (%)
Tradi>onal values mean a lot to me, and ought to be preserved for genera>ons to come. 65 83 Tradi>onal values are out-dated and belong in the past. I am keen to embrace modern values and beliefs.
35 17 2011 2012
32
Traditional vs. modern values

Q: Which of the following is closest to your view? (%)
Among All GCC Non GCC 65 68 63 35 32 37 Tradi>onal values mean a lot to me, and ought to be preserved for genera>ons to come. Tradi>onal values are out-dated and belong in the past. I am keen to embrace modern values and beliefs.
Libya UAE Saudi Arabia Bahrain Oman Egypt Kuwait Lebanon Qatar Jordan Iraq Tunisia 68 64 63 60 59 59 59 58 56
82 79 78 32 36 37 40 41 41 41 42 44
18 21 22
33
8
The UAE is seen as a model nation by Middle East youth
34
Model nations
Q: Which country in the world would you most like your country to be like? (%)
40 28 18 16
Q: As your country develops, which countrys model of growth and development would you like your country to follow? (%)
United Arab Emirates
27
United Arab Emirates Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
United States
19
China
19
Q: Which country in the world would you like to live in? (%)
33 17 16 16 14
France
17
Germany
17
United Arab Emirates
France
United States
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
16
United Kingdom
12
35
Model nations
Q: Which country in the world would you most like your country to be like? (%)
50
33
42 34 20 44 43 48 40 41 38 38 42
UAE
40
KSA
25 18 10 18 19 15 19 12 10 12 14
25
Among All KSA Egypt Iraq 42 35
UAE Libya
Kuwait Lebanon
Bahrain Tunisia
Qatar Jordan
Oman
19 34 35 22 25 16 29 12 14 14 14 9
20 20 17 13 13
Turkey
28 18
29
29 28 27
Qatar
10
36
Top countries to live in

Q: Which country in the world would you like to live in? (%)
33 38 30 33 38 28 31 29 43 34 21 33 37
28 22 20 9 17 16 19 15 10 8 11 17
UAE
Turkey
16
17
19 19 20 14
22 17 11 16 9
22 18
21
28 21 18 12 13 12 8 10 9 6
France
Saudi Arabia
14 14
15
28 18 11 18 8 18 Among All KSA Bahrain Iraq Jordan Qatar Lebanon UAE Oman Tunisia Kuwait Egypt Libya
United States
16
16 16 16
15
12
15
37
Models of growth & development

Q: As your country develops, which countrys model of growth and development would you like your country to follow? (%)
31 36 27 25 27 12 23 24 27 29 30 29
27
17
20 13
17 17
19 20 12 15 10
18 19
21
UAE
France
25
24 18
United States
19
21 22 13
23 11
25 20 13
26
16
Germany
17 9
20
22 23 15 16
19 10 12 12
17
Among All KSA UAE Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Oman Egypt Iraq Libya Lebanon Tunisia Jordan
32
26 23 8 16 18 18
China
19 17
21 15
17
20
23
Turkey
16 6
18 19 13
17 18
13 12 12
16
18
38
9
Arab youth see France most favourably among all foreign countries; views of China and India are also increasingly positive
39
Foreign relations
Q: How favourable are you to the following countries? (% very favourable)
46 39 34 30 29
44
41
43 34
41 31 25 20
28 27 23
29
2010
28
2011 2012
France
Germany
China
United Kingdom
United States
India
40
Foreign relations
Q: How favourable are you to the following countries? (% very favourable)
63 31 36 46 42
58
61 36 43 32 37 37 46
61 41
United Kingdom
45 34 21 15 28 30 22
France
37
44 47 28
United States
31 33 21
37 26 30 30
39
33
38 23 27
35
Germany
44 41
52 29 35 39 32
56
68 47 25
Among All KSA UAE Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Oman Egypt Iraq Libya Lebanon Tunisia Jordan
42 43
42 28 31 19 24 33 30 29 28 16 34 19 29
61 58 41 32 35 43 30
52 33
41 43
India
China
22
27
41
10
News consumption skyrockets, TV viewership declines & blogs are booming
42
Media consumption
Q: How often do you update yourself on news and current affairs? (%)
Country
52
Daily/nearly every day 2012
Daily/nearly every day 2011
GCC Non-GCC Tunisia Oman Kuwait Bahrain Saudi Arabia Libya Jordan Qatar Egypt Lebanon Iraq UAE
72 73 76 76 75 75 75 74 72 71 71 71 70 63
48 30 - 43 63 37 36 - 16 81 48 27 34 31
33
18
Daily
2010
2011
2012
43
News sources
Q: Where do you get your news? (%)
76
79 65 51 42 32 31 15 14 41 29 25 17 10 6 Magazines
62 47
62
Television
Online
Newspapers 2010
Friends and family 2011 2012
Radio
44
Trusted news sources
Q: In your opinion what is the most trusted source of news? (%)

60 52 49
26 19 18 9 11 18 9 4 TV news channels Newspapers Websites Social Media 1 3 3 1 2
Radio shows
Magazines
2010
2011
2012 Added in 2012
45
Internet usage
Q: How often do you generally use the Internet? (% daily)
Country
Daily 2012 Daily 2011
2012
82%
GCC Non-GCC Saudi Arabia UAE Libya Jordan
82 81 91 87 86 85 85 82 81 80 79 79 78 77
81 78 78 77 - 82 86 82 92 79 68 - 79 82
2011
80%
56%
Lebanon Bahrain Qatar Iraq Egypt
2010
Tunisia Kuwait Oman
46
Internet usage
Q: What do you do when you are online? (%)
61
66 58 58
62 60 56 47 43 41 36 37
29
32
34 33 30 29 28 28 28 27 25 25 24 23 22 24 19
12
20 18 15 5 8
22 18 16 14 16 14 12 11
8 10
2010
2011
2012
47
Blogs
Q: What do you do on blogs? (%) Q: Where do the blogs that you read come from? (%)
48
39 15 6
I comment on other people's blogs
90 58 24
My country The Middle East The West
I read blogs
I post on a blog I have my own blog
Q: What kinds of blogs do you read? (%)
53
45 30 31 24 20 Cookery 18 PoliGcs Base: All who blog
Fashion
News and Technology Celebrity Health and current news nutriGon aairs
48
Facebook
Q: Thinking about social networking, which of the following applies to you? (%) Q: Where do the people you are friends with come from?(%)
62 22 11 94 50 19
I have my own Facebook I have a Facebook I don't have a Facebook account account that I acGvely account but don't tend update to post or upload
Q: Who are the types of people that you are friends with on Facebook?(%)
92 26
13
4 Base: All who use Facebook
49
Twitter
Q: Thinking about Twitter, which of the following applies to you? (%) Q: Where do the people you follow on Twitter come from? (%)
49
39 15 92 67 13
I will respond to other people s Tweets
I acGvely post Tweets I follow but do not post
Q: Who are the types of people that you tend to follow? (%)
86 45 21 12 12 9 9
Base: All who use Twi4er
50
After the Spring
May 2, 2012 www.arabyouthsurvey.com

51

After The Spring - Arab Youth Survey

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May 2, 2012 www.arabyouthsurvey.com

Safaqis (25%) Benghazi (25%)

March April May

Gadda killed (25.10.11)

AYS 2011 Dec. 2010/ Jan. 2011

NATO intervenes in Libya (19.3.11)

Protests spread to Syria (23.3.11)

AYS 2012 Dec. 2011/ Jan. 2012

Being paid a fair wage

Owning my own home

Living in a democra>c country

Living without fear of terrorism

Having access to high speed internet

Among All Qatar Lebanon

Saudi Arabia Oman Tunisia

UAE Egypt Jordan

Rising cost of living

The loss of tradiGonal values and culture

Lack of Arab unity

Lack of poli>cal direc>on

Among all Qatar Lebanon

Saudi Arabia Oman Tunsia

UAE Egypt Jordan

Lack of Arab unity

Lack of poli>cal direc>on

Kuwait Bahrain Qatar

Libya Lebanon Tunsia

GCC Non -GCC

Impact of the Arab Spring

Disagree somewhat/a lot

As a result of the uprising, I feel I will be beier o in ve years

Impact of the Arab Spring

Optimism about the future

Among Saudi All Arabia

Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Oman Egypt

Libya Lebanon Tunsia Jordan

Optimism about the future

Among Saudi All Arabia

UAE Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Oman Egypt

Libya Lebanon Tunisia Jordan

Among Saudi All Arabia

Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Oman Egypt

Libya Lebanon Tunisia Jordan

Among All Qatar Lebanon

Saudi Araia Oman Tunisia

UAE Egypt Jordan

Concerns about corruption

Corrup>on in government and public life

31 53 75 62 62 62 61 57 Don't know No Yes 56 24 24 30 11 Iraq 28 26 28

Among Saudi All Arabia

Kuwait Bahrain Qatar Oman Egypt

Libya Lebanon Tunisia Jordan

Traditional vs. modern values

Traditional vs. modern values

United Arab Emirates

United Arab Emirates Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Among All KSA Egypt Iraq 42 35

Top countries to live in

Models of growth & development

Daily/nearly every day 2012

Daily/nearly every day 2011