Cut-off grades are used to define what is mined, what is milled from a mine's output or what is included in final output. Breakeven grade is that grade at which recoverable revenue exactly balances the cost of mining, processing and marketing a mineral. A number of cutoff grades can be derived which define when costs and revenue balance depending on the stage of the mine's life and definitions of cost.
Cut-off grades are used to define what is mined, what is milled from a mine's output or what is included in final output. Breakeven grade is that grade at which recoverable revenue exactly balances the cost of mining, processing and marketing a mineral. A number of cutoff grades can be derived which define when costs and revenue balance depending on the stage of the mine's life and definitions of cost.
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Cut-off grades are used to define what is mined, what is milled from a mine's output or what is included in final output. Breakeven grade is that grade at which recoverable revenue exactly balances the cost of mining, processing and marketing a mineral. A number of cutoff grades can be derived which define when costs and revenue balance depending on the stage of the mine's life and definitions of cost.
Direitos autorais:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Baixe no formato PDF, TXT ou leia online no Scribd
Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 1 of 23
CUT-OFF GRADES AND ORE RESOURCES
INTRODUCTION
Cut-off grades are used to define what is mined, what is milled from a mine's output or what is included in final output.
PURPOSE AND OUTCOMES
The purpose of this module is to summarise essential cutoff grade concepts to assist mine planning exercises. The intended outcomes, for you in this topic are to;
1. Apply the basic concepts of classical approaches to cutoff determinations. 2. Apply the basic concepts of Lanes approach to cutoff grade determination. 3. Examine operational aspects of application of cutoff grade determination approaches to mine planning exercises.
DEFINITIONS
Ore is a mineral assemblage of actual or potential economic interest (suspected economic interest).
Cut-off grade is any grade that is used to separate two courses of action e.g. to mine or to leave, to mill or to dump.
Breakeven grade is that grade at which recoverable revenue exactly balances the cost of mining, processing and marketing a mineral.
Pay limit can be used in the same context as Breakeven grade, to denote the lower limit of mineral grade that can pay for all costs associated with its extraction.
Grade may be defined in terms of Grade eg g/tonne for gold mineralization or % for base metals. Equivalent metal grade per tonne where there is more than one economic mineral eg Equivalent Zn % in a Zinc/Lead/Silver orebody $ value per tonne eg combined value of mineralization where there is more than one economic mineral. Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 2 of 23
CLASSICAL CUTOFF GRADE OR BREAKEVEN ANALYSES
APPROACHES TO CUTOFF GRADE CALCULATION
Many early writers on cutoff grade theory and practice, such as Mortimer (1950) as outlined in the Appendix A focused only on cost as a determinant of breakeven grade for operational decision making. A number of cutoff grades can be derived which define when costs and revenue balance depending on the stage of the mines life and definitions of cost.
Very Conservative Mine Breakeven Grade: This approach can be used for an established mine in which there are no constraints on mill, hoisting or other infrastructure capacity. It does not seek to maximise Present Value nor allow for cost of sunken capital. It can be used for short term production decisions when grades decrease away from the main (higher grade) ore to determine whether the next block of material (either laterally or deeper) can be classified as ore or waste. It may be used in a situation when the mill is constrained for feed, as higher grade mine blocks are temporarily not available. As a consequence operating fixed costs and overhead administration are not included in determining the breakeven grade. Once a project is in operation the cutoff grade determined by marginal cost analysis may exclude many of what are defined as fixed costs.
Conservative Mine Breakeven Grade: As above, this approach can be used for an established mine in which there are no constraints on mill, hoisting or other infrastructure capacity. It does not seek to maximise Present Value nor allow for cost of sunken capital. However it has included fixed direct mining and milling operating costs and mining overhead costs in the determination to more realistically represent direct operating costs a contractor would face if that company were alternatively performing the task. It does not include overhead technical support costs or site and village costs.
South African Breakeven Grade: The South African gold mining industry has for many years had to comply with a statutory cutoff grade policy directed to conserve the countrys gold resources. The approach gives a definition to the mineralized resource.
1) All ore mined must be able to bear its proportionate share of working costs, including overhead and sometimes development expenses. 2) The average "breakeven" or "pay-limit" grade so determined is the cut-off grade, any blocks of ore with higher grade become part of ore reserves. 3) Overall stopping must be almost exactly at the average grade of the whole ore reserves. 4) For these definitions time and capital expenditure are wholly irrelevant.
In essence the policy states that the cutoff grade must be set taking into account operating costs, administration costs and associated overheads. Cost of capital and time value of money are not Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 3 of 23
included in this determination. Mining extraction each month must be undertaken so that head grade is at the average grade of the reserve so determined (to ensure that high grading does not occur). The approach is conservative and does not seek to maximise Present Value nor allow for cost of sunken capital. However it does included fixed direct mining and milling operating costs and mining administration costs. It could be interpreted to include mine development costs of a short life (less than two years), overhead technical support costs and site and village costs.
This definition is based on the premise that there must not be any loss of mineralization that can pay for itself (i.e. no ore can be left in the ground after block mining has ceased). This stipulation conflicts with the economic criterion that the last block of mineralization (ore) mined must achieve a level of profitability greater than that available elsewhere.
Breakeven Grade Including Using Shareholder Value Added (SVA) Concept: All companies have a policy of building shareholder value. As part of this all productive investments are expected to carry a capital charge. A weighted average capital charge in percent needs to be agreed. A project net asset value (market resale value) needs to be determined. Added to this is a capital charge for the current year. Adding this to the other site operating costs gives the breakeven value.
Breakeven Grade Including incorporating Notional Capital Expenditure: Capital cost of a project can be appraised in terms of Payback over time. By this approach historical capital expenditures are reflated by both an annual capital charge and additional capital payments in subsequent years and reduced as the project makes surplus cashflow. A capital charge rate or funding cost needs to be multiplied by this net figure. Adding this to the other site operating costs gives the breakeven value.
BLENDED MARKET PRODUCTS
These classical approaches were originally focused on determination of cutoff or breakeven grade for precious or base metal deposits. These approaches are, however, not directly applicable to mined commodities from high grade deposits such as iron ore and bauxite where the direst-shipping ore grades are fixed and defined by contract grade specifications achieved by blending. In this situation an appropriate cutoff grade, as establishes by Royle (1981), defines the economic optimum as the maximum tonnage of resource with a mean grade above a cutoff grade
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
Types of orebodies. e.g. dilution in caving mining methods, size of an underground opening is governed by the mining method used. Fluctuating Price. Price of a mineral product and so revenue can fluctuate widely. If product price rises, breakeven grade declines inversely. If cut-off is lowered, average grade drops and for Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 4 of 23
a steady mill throughput, less metal is produced. With lowered cut-off grade, the mine is using the higher product price to profit from ore that otherwise would have been unmined. The mine does not necessarily experience a rise in profits here with rise in prices. However, high prices tend to attract more metal to market - a requirement (its assuming constant mill capacity) which can only be satisfied by raising average grade. For the short term, this leads to higher profits than other alternatives. Costs. Costs vary at a different rate to price, so affecting breakeven grade. Should some costs (mainly capital) costs be excluded from breakeven determinations - when they still have to be paid for somehow? Sectional breakeven grades for different areas of the mine and different categories or ore with varying cost structures may be necessary.
Taxation Varying systems of taxation and particularly those that vary taxation rates with different levels of profitability.
PLANNING AND OPERATIONAL CUT-OFF GRADES
During exploration and pre-production stages of a mine's life, a cut-off grade is needed to define geographically and quantitatively potential ore limits. This gives a prediction of the total ore that may at some time be mined. This cut-off" grade is a planning cut-off grade, determined by calculation or by comparison with analogous mining operations.
Operational cut-off grades are used after production starts to define on a short-term basis what parcels of mineralization may contribute to unmined ore reserves or to streams of broken ore. These parcels may be part or whole stopes or broken underground ore awaiting drawing.
DEFINITION OF CUT-OFF GRADE FOR DIFFERENT MINING CONDITIONS
Under classical analysis working cost breakeven sets the cut off which in turn sets average grade from which revenue and profit are derived. For this to be satisfied there must be
a) an adequate inventory of freely selectable ore; to enable the "average grade" to be selected regularly, b) unit costs that are largely constant and are independent of the level of the cut-off grade, c) operators whose only aim is to maximize total profit over total life, and d) an average rate of profit achieved that is adequate.
The practicality of satisfying these conditions is governed by the type of mining operation.
Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 5 of 23
Types of Mines
1. Tabular, underground orebodies e.g. coal, gold reefs. Thin and erratic mineralization requiring close sampling for proof of ore and mining control. Available ore resources are normally from one to a few years. 2. Massive underground orebodies e.g. most base metal mines with often massive and disseminated resources. Total ore resources as indicated reliably by drilling are often enormous, but because mining is strongly sequential, the ore available at anyone instant is very limited. Poor flexibility and selectivity. 3. Massive open-pit orebodies. Includes porphyry type orebodies. Orebodies are massive with irregular mineralization, often a core of enriched material is surrounded by lower grades. Geologic boundaries are often not clear. There is a need for intensive valuation drilling from surface. Mining is strongly sequential. Selectivity of broken ore often can be very good.
Points of Cut-off
All mines need planning cut-off grades in the exploration and feasibility stages and regularly for annual or periodical recalculation of ore reserves.
Type 1 For accurate valuation require extensive development that later serves largely for stoping. The main cut-off grade defines what to stope. On the Witwatersrand, this cut-off must continually be reconciled with the planning cut-off used earlier for ore reserve determination. A parallel cut-off grade serves to select additional mill feed from already broken ground. This introduces the concept of a Sub Economic Pay Limit applied to rock whose further treatment only has to pay for marginal costs.
Type 2 The first cut-off choice is what to develop; a decision taken generally before stope development. Because of their very large size, the grades of selectable units have low variance. For this reason, the cut-off grade may in practice serve only to define the fringes of major ore zones. The mines are unique in having two cut-off grades in series on the same material -a pre- development sectional cut-off and a draw cut-off grade for broken ore.
Type 3 Some use of planning cut-off grades is helpful for predicting probable pit limits. The main operating cut-off grade defines the fraction of already broken ore that goes to the mill.
Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 6 of 23
MAXAMISATION OF PRESENT VALUE AND LANES CUT-OFF GRADE APPROACHES
Lane argues that the best criterion for optimising cut-off grade is adoption of the cut-off which maximises the net present value of the cash flow of the whole operation. This, therefore, takes into account the time value of money and reflects the costs and benefits of bringing forward or delaying extraction of any one parcel of ore.
Lane (1964, 1988) considers that the each mining operation is a combination of three stages, the mine, the mill or concentrator, and the market or refinery. Each of these three components has its own limiting capacity to handle either ore or product and has its own set of associated costs. In addition the whole operation has a set of fixed costs which do not necessarily relate to any one stage.
Lane first defines three limiting economic cut-off grades, one for each stage of the operation on the assumption that each individual stage may be the limiting factor or capacity. Details on these approaches are set down in the Appendix.
These cut-off grades are a function of the costs of each stage and are in fact a set of three breakeven grades, one for each separate stage. The next stage defines three balancing cut-off grades, which balance the capacities of each of the mine stages. These are independent of the costs and are a function of the individual capacities of each mine stage and the grade distribution of the ore.
Lane demonstrates that the optimum cut-off grade is always one of the above six potential cut- off grades, either a limiting or balancing cut-off, which maximises the net present value of the cash flow.
Lane (1964) states ... the optimum cut-off grade is influenced by the economics of present value, the capacities of the several stages in the mining operation, and the grade distribution of the deposit.
Lane (1988) describes that each limiting capacity of the mine stages is dependent on the grade distribution. In order to address this he defined terms to be used to describe the material handled by each stage. The mine handles mineralised material which comprises both ore and waste and the proportions of ore to waste are a direct function of both the grade distribution and the cut-off grade. Ore refers to that proportion of mineralised material which is selected to be milled or concentrated. Mineral is that proportion of the ore or mineralised material which is to marketed or refined.
Lane (1988) defines six possible cut-off grades relating to an operation, three limiting cut-offs and three balancing cut-offs. The overall optimum cut-off grade is the one of the above six, which maximises the net present value of future cash flows. Hancock (2000) puts this theory to test with mineralization data from a precious metal orebody as shown in Figure 1
Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 7 of 23
Returning to the limiting cut-off grade section, three expressions can be presented representing incremental present value with increasing throughput for each of the three limiting stages. These expressions reflect the rate of change in present value with increasing cut-off grade. As the cut-off grade rises from zero, present value will also rise to a maximum which equates to the limiting cut-off grade. Beyond this point present value again declines. The three expressions may be expressed graphically for any one grade distribution and cost structure as shown in Figure 1 as shown for an example mine by Hancock (2000).
The point of maxima of each of the three curves occurs at the limiting economic cut-off grade for each stage. These define the limiting cut-off grades for this operation as 0.3% Cu mine limiting, 0.3% Cu market limiting and 0.55% mill limiting. The intersections of the curves one with the other occurs at the balancing cut-off grade between those two mine stages. In this the balancing cut-off grade lies between 0.5% and 0.55% Cu cut-off grade.
The optimum cut-off grade for the overall operation is the grade which maximises the incremental present value of the cash flow and is represented by the maximum value or apex contained beneath the curves. This grade is the point of maximum defined as either a limiting or balancing grade or both. In the case of Figure 1 the optimum cut-off grade occurs at a grade of 0.52% Cu which is coincident with the mine/concentrator balancing cut-off grade.
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OPERATIONAL AND PLANNING ASPECTS
Some comments on operational aspects of application of cut off grade concepts are appropriate.
In some underground mines a significant proportion of mine development extraction occurs in ore. Some consideration on the cutoff to be used in mining waste mullock is appropriate. Development waste in most mines poses challenges. Some can be placed as fill in underground voids if these are available. The rest is trucked directly to a surface waste stockpile or is temporarily stockpiled underground and hoisted in campaigns. From the hoisting shaft it goes to the surface waste stockpile. At the end of the mines life this waste may be taken underground during reclamation of the site at closure. It is appropriate to apply a sub-economic cutoff grade analysis to this development waste. It has to be broken and most is taken from the mine. If there was no constraint on mill capacity it could be passed through the processing system as long as it could cover the marginal costs of milling. This is only viable if the mill has an increment of spare capacity. The policy on milling development waste should be treated as a short term decision and continuation of the policy questioned periodically. If the mill is operating at full capacity and the ore stockpile is growing then the policy should revert to that of only treating higher grade development material which exceeds the stoping cutoff as ore.
Treating more development material as ore has the additional advantage that some capital development material will be classified as ore and appear on the company accounts as an operating cost.
If the mines ore oxidises readily after breakage it cannot be surface stockpiled for extensive periods. Many mines (particularly surface operations) stockpile marginal material for later processing.
The step to moving from quantifying mineable reserves from geologic resources raises many questions. Underground mine mineralisation resource statements form the base from which stoping development and extraction can be planned and mineable reserve statements developed. The tonnage and grade which is extracted from mine stopes will be influenced by the mining method and the ability to fit stopes to mineralisation boundaries or mineralisation cutoff. The difference between resources and mineable reserves will be influenced by a number factors which lead to loss of tonnage or diminution in average grade from that established in resource statements.
1. Geometric Loss Factor. The boundaries of an orebody often form complex planes. The stope walls, crown or floor cannot follow these boundaries in detail due to scale of mining and equipment. Some ore will remain behind in the mine due to this geometric misfit around stope edges. This factor can be established by close examination of a stope block model fitted to the mine resource model. This can be done when the detailed stope design has been established some months before scheduled extraction.
2. Dilution Loss. Lenses of sub-grade material that lie within stope boundaries reduce average extraction grade. Barren material on the periphery of stopes that lies within the stope geometry but out of the resource model will have a similar effect. For this section of a mine Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 9 of 23
stope tonnes may in fact exceed resource model tonnes although all dilution will lead to grade reduction. This factor can be established by close examination of the interior and perimeter of a stope block model fitted to the mine resource model. This can be done when the detailed stope design has been established some months before scheduled extraction.
3. Loss with Unmineable Material. Unmineable mineralisation includes lenses too small for economic stoping and material which may be lost as it surrounds and supports main development of structures that remain to the mine end of life. This factor is difficult to correctly establish until towards the end of mine life. Some lower grade resource mineralisation may be bypassed in a zone early in mine life due to high-grading policy or difficulties in access and be mined later on. This is a very difficult factor to predict until late in mine life.
4. Overbreak. Hangingwall or crown material may extend the mine stope void beyond design limits due to effects of blasting on ground structure. This will in fact mean that stope tonnage exceeds resource model tonnes although all dilution will lead to grade reduction. This is a very difficult factor to predict until after mining studies can lead to calculation of an average stoping factor.
In moving from a geologic resource to a mining reserve and stope design not all mineralisation can be mined. Further mining extraction factors are important as waste lenses within stopes dilute mineralisation grade, stope geometries do not necessarily fit resource limiting planes and affect recovery and mining inefficiencies such as overbreak and extraction of old fill lead to losses. Detailed examination in short term planning of stope fit to mineralisation and the factors described above would allow confirmation of an appropriate planning factor.
Most Australia mines rely extensively on contractors both for additional labour and for provision of much equipment and other infrastructure. Facilities such the explosive batch plant are often externally owned. This position means that there has been some replacement by the mine owner of early capital expenditure with future operating cost obligation. This situation has some influence on cutoff grade determination as contractor usage will overinflate operating costs (which appear in Lanes cutoff approach) at the expense of capital charges (which do not appear in Lanes cutoff calculations).
Apart from mill capacity the processing plant imposes other consideration. Plant generally attempt to balance the properties of different mineralisation types with a blend of various ores. Mine profitability will be enhanced with a high grading policy. Accessible high grade mineralisation should be mined first and if this changes the mix to the mill the effects on operating cost and recoveries should be examined in detail.
ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION
Most mines in the long term are mill treatment limited operation in which a number of strategic long term directions can be taken. - Set initial cutoff high. This will shorten resource life and potentially sterilise future resource; this approach demands that cutoff is reduced frequently (annually) as opportunity cost factor Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 10 of 23
F of holding the grologic deposit reduces. - Maintain a low cutoff and simultaneously increase mine and mill throughput and in the meantime continue to review cutoff strategy.
The longterm cutoff strategy should be reviewed annually and changed in line with the Lane (19880 analysis. Some short term development investment may be needed to maintain increased mine capacity. There will be some limitation in the short term tactical approaches available with mine planning and scheduling to allow achievement of an optimised cutoff approach
REFERENCES
Hancock, GE, 2000. Taxation effects on mineral resource economics in Papua New Guinea. Ph.D thesis (unpublished), University of Queensland, Brisbane.
Lane, KF, 1964. Choosing the optimum cutoff grade. Colorado School of Mines Quarterly, vol 59, no 4, pp811-829
Lane, KF and others, 1984. Cutoff grade for two minerals. 18 th APCOM Symposium, pp485-492
Lane, KF, 1988. The economic definition of ore, cutoff grades in theory and practice. Mining Journal Books, London
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APPENDIX A
ELEMENTS OF CUT-OFF GRADE THEORY
(This summary has been prepared with considerable input from Graeme Hancock, Director of Mining, PNG Department of Mining)
INTRODUCTION
Taylor (1972, 1985) defines a cut-off grade as a grade that, for any specified reason, is used to separate two courses of action, for example, to mine or to leave, to mill or to dump. The most common use of the term refers to that grade which defines the economic ore: waste boundary. As such a cut-off grade is usually used to define the minimum mineral concentration within a mineralised rock, which is deemed sufficient to contribute positively to the profitability of a mining operation. Some early writers in this area such as Mortimer (1950) defined the economic cut-off grade primarily in terms of costs, and as the grade of ore from which the revenue exactly equals the costs of production. This is now better known as the breakeven grade which may or may not necessarily be the optimum cut-off grade. Mortimers definition is very succinct being The average grade of rock must provide a certain minimum profit per tonne milled. The lowest grade of rock mined must pay for itself.
Lane (1964) made a very important observation that the cut-off grade is not only a function of the grade distribution but is also constrained by the capacities of the various components in the mining operation. Each component part of the mine has its own set of costs and capacities and therefore its own optimum cut-off grade. He argues that the overall optimum cut-off grade for an operation is one which balances the capacities of the mine, mill and market. Lanes optimum economic cut-off grade is the grade that maximises the net present value of the future cash flows. Taylor (1972) also argued that any cut-off grade policy which truly maximises the net present value of the cash flow in year zero of an operation must also maximise the remaining present value of each successive period of operation. He states that maximum present value and constant cut-off grades are incompatible.
Thomas (1976) also demonstrated that the net present value of an operation could be enhanced by high-grading the deposit. He demonstrated that preferentially mining higher grade ore early in the life of the mine maximised the net present value of the operation.
Taylor (1985) highlighted that not only should the grade distribution be considered in the determination of cut-off grade, but also the spatial relationships of ore and waste as defined by the chosen cut-off grade. This reflects that it is not always possible to achieve production at the desired average grade as defined by a chosen cut-off due to the ore-body geometry limiting access to high grade ore blocks. Taylor also drew the distinction between planning and operating cut-off grades, and states that they may not always be the same. Planning cut-offs are those used in the establishment of mine plans and in mine feasibility studies, whilst operating cut-offs are necessarily variable due to changes in economic and operational parameters such as commodity prices and input costs throughout the mine life. He also recognised that the actual operating capacities of many major components of mine infrastructure often vary from the design or rated Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 12 of 23
capacities. As an example, many concentrators operate in excess of rated capacity after a period of commissioning and fine-tuning. In recognition of these factors the design cut-off grades may not be realistic or optimum for the operational phase of the project and should be reviewed following mine commissioning.
Lanes cut-off grade theory relates mainly to ores that contain relatively minor concentrations of valuable mineral which require concentration prior to refining or marketing. Mol and Gillies (1984) demonstrated that Lanes cut-off grade theory did not apply to direct shipping ores such as bauxite or iron ore where the marketable product has specifications as to quality and concentration. They demonstrated that the optimum cut-off grade policy in this situation is that grade which maximises the marketable ore reserves.
Lane has expanded on the earlier works in his text The Economic Definition of Ore (1988) which is currently viewed as the definitive work on cut-off grades for the precious and base metals industries.
A DESCRIPTION OF LANES CUT-OFF GRADE THEORY
General Approach
The following section is a description of cut-off grade theory as outlined by Lane (1964, 1988, and Lane et al 1984). Lane (1964, 1988) considers that the mining operation is a combination of three stages, the mine, the mill or concentrator, and the market or refinery. Each of these three components has its own limiting capacity to handle either ore or product and has its own set of associated costs. In addition the whole operation has a set of fixed costs which do not necessarily relate to any one stage.
Lane argues that the best criterion for optimising cut-off grade is that cut-off which maximises the net present value of the cash flow of the whole operation. This, therefore, takes into account the time value of money and reflects the costs and benefits of bringing forward or delaying extraction of any one parcel of ore.
Lane first defines three limiting economic cut-off grades, one for each stage of the operation on the assumption that each individual stage may be the limiting factor or capacity. These cut-off grades are a function of the costs of each stage and are in fact a set of three breakeven grades, one for each separate stage. The next stage defines three balancing cut-off grades, which balance the capacities of each of the mine stages. These are independent of the costs and are a function of the individual capacities of each mine stage and the grade distribution of the ore. He then demonstrates that the optimum cut-off grade is always one of the above six potential cut-off grades, either a limiting or balancing cut-off, which maximises the net present value of the cash flow. Lane (1964) states ... the optimum cut-off grade is influenced by the economics of present value, the capacities of the several stages in the mining operation, and the grade distribution of the deposit.
Lane (1988) describes that each limiting capacity of the mine stages is dependent on the grade distribution. In order to address this he defined terms to be used to describe the material handled Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 13 of 23
by each stage. The mine handles mineralised material which comprises both ore and waste and the proportions of ore to waste are a direct function of both the grade distribution and the cut-off grade. Ore refers to that proportion of mineralised material which is selected to be milled or concentrated. Mineral is that proportion of the ore or mineralised material which is to marketed or refined.
In order to asses the economics of a mining operation, Lane groups the component costs and capacities of each stage as well as fixed costs.
Using Lanes (1988) notation
Component Throughput Basic Quantity Variable Cost (/ unit throughput) Capacity (throughput / yr) Mining Mineralised Material l m M Milling Ore x h H Marketing Mineral g x k K
Where: x is the proportion of mineralised material classified as ore. g is the average grade of the ore expressed as a mineral:ore ratio. Other variables used in notation include: cut-off grade applied to mineralised material to define ore (mineral:ore ratio). y yield or recovery in the treatment process. f fixed costs per year. p price per unit of mineral sold. c cash flow per unit of mineralised material. t time taken to work through one unit of mineralised material. r discount rate, cost of capital.
Using the above notation the cash flow derived from one unit of mineralised material is: ft m xh g xy k p c = ) ( ..........1
This is the basic cash flow expression for one unit of mineralised material mined and processed in time t. This must be modified in order to maximise the present value of future profits rather than just total profit. An expression must therefore be constructed which determines the increase in present value resulting from that one unit of mineralised material.
Lane explains it as follows. Assume that the maximum possible net present value from the operation is V. Also assume that the NPV after one unit has been mined is W. The cut-off grade must be selected that maximises both the value of the cash flow derived from the unit mined and also the NPV of future cash flows. By incorporating the present value formula:
t r W c V ) 1 ( + + = ..........2 If t is short this can be approximated to: Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 14 of 23
rVt c W V = ..........3
This expression is the change in present value that occurs as a result of mining one unit of mineralised material. V is unknown and cannot be determined until the optimum cut-off grade is known. This is achieved by an iterative process by making progressively better estimates. The construction of the expression is valid only if V depends on the resource available not the time. In the expression presented, rV is in effect the opportunity cost of investing the mines capital elsewhere, call it F. The optimum cut-off grade is thus that grade which maximises the expression:
Ft c ..........4
By substituting for c the following expression of incremental present value for each unit of resource is derived, call it v:
t F f m xh g xy k p v ) ( ) ( + = ..........5
Limiting Economic Cut-off Grades
The time t taken to work through the one unit of mineralised material will depend on which stage of a mining operation is limiting throughput. Lane (1988) develops equations for mine limiting, concentrator limiting and market limiting situations. The concentrator is often the limiting factor in mine production that restricts throughput and so this approach alone will be outlined. In the case of the concentrator, one unit of mineralised material will give rise to x units of ore where x is the proportion of mineralised material to ore. This quantity will take x/H time to process. The expression for incremental present value with the concentrator limiting is therefore:
H x F f m xh g xy k p v h ) ( ) ( + = ..........6
Mining costs are essentially irrelevant to the cut-off decision as they are a sunk cost which is incurred irrespective of the decision to mill or to dump any one parcel of mineralised material. Therefore the choice of optimum cut-off grade will be the one that maximises the expression:
) ) ( ) (( H F f h g y k p x + ..........7 And the concentrator limiting cut-off grade h is given by:
H F f h y k p h ) ( ) ( + + = ..........8
or y k p H F f h h ) /( ) ) ( ( + + = ..........9
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In this example the opportunity cost F is shown as a cost which relates to the time taken to process the ore. It can be seen from this expression that as F declines so too does the optimum cut-off grade. As the mine nears exhaustion the value of F declines to very low levels and as a result the optimum cut-off grade trends toward the breakeven grade for the concentrator stage.
Limiting cut-off grades are calculated on the basis of costs and capacities without reference to the grade distribution of the deposit. This only applies where one stage only is limiting throughput. If two or more stages are limiting throughput simultaneously the grade distribution within the mineralised material becomes a critical factor in the selection of the optimum cut-off grade.
Lane introduces the concept of Balancing Cut-Off Grades. These have particular importance in open pit mining where the ratio of total material mined to ore mined is high and balancing the capacity of the concentrator for ore against the mine for material moved is of importance. The same considerations are not generally significant in underground mining where the fraction of waste (development) material mined is low.
The optimum cut-off grade for the overall operation is the grade that maximises the incremental present value of the cash. This grade is the point of maximum defined by a limiting grade (or balancing grade in the case of an open cut mine or both).
Calculating an Optimum Life of Mine Cut-off Grade Policy
The conversion of an optimum cut-off grade for a single point in time into a coherent life of mine cut-off policy requires a different approach. Whilst a single point cut-off grade may maximise the present value for that increment of ore it may not necessarily maximise the present value of all future parcels of ore. In order to achieve this an iterative routine is required which maximises the present value of cash flow for both the present and future years.
The calculation of an optimum life of mine cut-off strategy hinges on the calculation of the opportunity cost factor F. F is comprised of two components, the opportunity cost of holding the resource (value of future mine cash flows) compared with investment in some other opportunity, and the potential costs caused by changing economic conditions. It is defined as the change in present value of an operation due to time and may be expressed as:
dT dV rV F = ..........10 where rV is the opportunity cost of capital otherwise deployed elsewhere and dT dV is the cost associated with changing economic conditions.
The expression can be portrayed simply as the difference in present value of an operation between the beginning of the year, and at the end of that same year in the event that no production took place, that is, the amount of resource remaining is unchanged. In order to explain more fully, if V i is the present value of an operation at the beginning of year i, and W i is the present value at year end with the same resource remaining, then the only change to have Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 16 of 23
occurred will be as a result of changing economic circumstances.
i i i V W dT dV = ) ( ..........11
Thus the above equation 10 can be simplified to:
i i i dT dV rV F ) ( = ..........12
and i i i i W V rV F + = ..........13
The term ( i i W V ) may be either positive or negative depending on whether economic parameters change for the benefit or detriment of the mine. If all economic conditions remain the same throughout the year and in all future years, this implies that ( i i W V ) is zero and thus the equation for F further simplifies to:
i rV F = ..........14
This simplified formula for F establishes that under stable economic conditions the opportunity or delay cost to be incorporated into the optimum cut-off grade calculation is simply the NPV of future optimum cash flows multiplied by the discount rate.
From the formula presented for optimum limiting cut-off grade calculation (formula 6 for concentrator limiting) it can be observed that the value of F can only be determined after the optimum cut-off grade has been calculated, and that the optimum cut-off grade itself depends on the calculation of F. Therefore an iterative process is required to progressively refine the cut-off grade strategy until an optimum present value position is reached.
This is achieved by initially making an estimate or guess of the optimum cut-off policy and allowing the grade to be refined to an optimum by the iterative calculation routine. Details of iteration techniques currently in use in commercial software packages are provided by Lane (1988).
F by its very nature must decline with time, and with declining resource, as the present value of future cash flows declines. The value of F will be highest at the commencement of production when the value of future cash flows is the highest. As each year passes a portion of the resource is extracted and thus removes that portion of value from the available future resource. The value of future cash flows now possible declines by that amount. As a result, F will ultimately decline to zero at the end of the mine life. With F being treated as a mining cost in the formula for optimum cut-off grade (6) it effectively adds a notional cost to the actual cost of mining and processing each unit of ore. As a result F causes the cut-off to be elevated in the earlier years of an operation, by raising the break-even grade through the incorporation of a notional cost. This notional cost is incorporated to reflect the opportunity cost of holding the resource, as well as the opportunity cost of deferring high grade ore until later in the mine life. Thus its influence on the Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 17 of 23
cost structure of the mine will result in the selection of a declining cut-off grade with time. At the end of mine life F declines to zero and the optimum cut-off grade becomes the break-even or marginal cut-off grade of the limiting stage at that point in time. Due to the progressive lowering of cut-off grade it is often the mill or concentrator which becomes the limiting stage at this point in the mine life.
This feature can best be described by reference to a graph of the NPV profile of a mining operation (Figure 1).
Hancock (2000) gives an example of a mine NPV profile in Figure 1 plotted by calculating the NPV of all future cash flows on an annual basis throughout the mine life. For example, in year 5 the NPV will include cash flows from year 5 to 18, year 8 would include years 8 to 18 etc. The NPV initially rises from year zero to a maximum in the first year of production as the influence of the negative cash flow on NPV, caused by the capital cost component of the project, is left in the past. The NPV then progressively declines as the resource is utilised and the total value of future cash flows declines. F is also plotted on the graph (defined as the value of future cash flows multiplied by the discount rate), and declines synchronously with the declining NPV.
Practical Considerations Impacting on the Cut-off Decision
Many external factors can affect the final choice of cut-off grade which may be unrelated to the underlying economics of a mining operation.
Environmental considerations may dictate the total metal content allowable in waste rock and tailings. If the waste rock or tailings cannot exceed a certain concentration or grade of a Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 18 of 23
particular metal, then the cut-off may be determined by the objective of meeting environmental regulations rather than based on pure economics.
Stockpiling of intermediate grade mined ore for later processing may not be possible if broken material oxidises. The availability of sufficient real estate for stockpiling of lower grade ore will also impact on the cut-off decision. For example, a mine in a very mountainous region may have no flat or stable land on which to place sub-grade material for later treatment. All waste is permanently lost to the mine, and as such the cut-off grade must reflect a long term view of prices and costs in order not to permanently sacrifice ore grade material.
Some orebodies have multiple mineral types for the same metallic element each with varying mill recoveries. This is common in porphyry copper deposits where in excess of 5 primary and secondary copper minerals may be present, each with its own set of throughput and recovery characteristics.
Some cut-off grades may be parametric, meaning that optimum cut-off grades may change within an orebody or with varying operating conditions. Examples include the changing hardness of the ore in different parts of the orebody. Each may require different cut-offs to apply to different domains within the orebody despite having the same primary ore mineralogy.
Parametric cut-offs may also be required in multi-mineral deposits such as porphyry copper-gold and base metal massive sulphide deposits. Often these deposits are managed by way of determining metal equivalent grades such as a copper equivalent grade in a porphyry copper- gold deposit. However, the recovery characteristics of any two minerals in a flotation circuit are rarely the same and a metal equivalent grade is therefore a poor approximation at best. This issue is also dealt with by Lane (1988) in some depth.
Planning vs. Operational Cut-Off Grades
Planning cut-off grades are those determined during the feasibility phase for either a new development or an expansion. Such studies are based on a large number of assumptions as to costs and production rates and resource grades. Reality is often different from the plan due to either conservative or over-optimistic assumptions. Most technical personnel in mines would recognise this reality, although often the planning cut-off grade based on the feasibility study remains in use for long periods despite the obvious differences between the plan and actual operations.
Long term operational cut-off grades should be assessed as soon as an adequate database of actual revenues, costs and mine and mill production performance is available. Re-optimisation of the cut-off should be carried out whenever there is a significant change in one of the major input parameters, whether it be the resource, production factors or capacity, commodity prices or other market related factors.
In an operational sense mines are dynamic not static and as such many of the inputs into Lanes models are constantly changing. For example, even the resource is a moving target. Additional exploration during mine life almost inevitably adds resources and reserves as time goes by. Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 19 of 23
There are certainly situations where exploration success has resulted in the reserves available at the end of a year exceeding those available at the beginning of the year despite a full years production having been achieved. Conversely a stability problem may quarantine ore from production and the resource may decline by a figure well in excess of the resource actually utilised. Situations such as these require the constant reassessment of cut-off grades with changing circumstances.
CONCLUSION
Lanes cut-off grade theory is the first comprehensive work defining the economic considerations inherent in the cut-off decision. It is both complex and sensitive to the various cost, capacity and resource inputs one would find in any mine. Its primary function is to maximise the NPV of a mining operation through strategic development of higher grade resources early in the mine life. It is a useful tool in feasibility studies for the development of planning cut-off grades and has significant value in its ability to provide insights into the optimisation of the capacities of the mine, mill and market components of any mining operation.
Mine operators need to be aware that cut-off grades are also dynamic and should respond to changing operating or resource parameters. Planning cut-off grades determined during feasibility studies are based on a large number of assumptions, and need to be reviewed and refined once actual operating cost and mine and mill performance data are available. Additions to reserves or resources through successful exploration should also prompt a review of the cut- off grade strategy for the remaining life of the mine.
Lanes cut-off grade theory is complex, and in most cases optimisation is carried out based on pre-tax cash flows. Lanes theory covers a range of other topics including stockpiling, parametric cut-off grades and aspects of grade control that have not been considered in any detail.
To date no other comprehensive theory of cut-off grade calculation has been proposed. Lanes work has been progressively introduced into the industry and is becoming widely accepted. Recent developments focus around its application to a wider range of activities and circumstances such as its application in mill optimisation and the development of specialised software for the calculation of optimum cut-off strategies.
REFERENCES
Hancock, GE, 2000. Taxation effects on mineral resource economics in Papua New Guinea. Ph.D thesis (unpublished), University of Queensland, Brisbane.
Lane, KF, 1964. Choosing the optimum cutoff grade. Colorado School of Mines Quarterly, vol 59, no 4, pp811-829
Lane, KF and others, 1984. Cutoff grade for two minerals. 18 th APCOM Symposium, pp485-492 Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 20 of 23
Lane, KF, 1988. The economic definition of ore, cutoff grades in theory and practice. Mining Journal Books, London
Mol, O and Gillies, ADS, 1984. Cutoff grade determination for mines producing direct shipping ore. Proc AustInstMinMetall, No 289, Nov-Dec, pp283-287
Mortimer, G. J. 1950. Grade Control. Trans. Inst. Min. Metall. Vol 59, 1950 pp357-99
Taylor, HK, 1972. General background theory of cutoff grade. Trans. Inst.Min.Metall. sect A, July, vol 81, pp160-179
Taylor, HK, 1985. Cutoff grades - some further reflections. Trans. Inst.Min.Metall. sect A, Oct, vol 96, ppA204-A216
Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 21 of 23
APPENDIX B
LANE'S CUT-OFF GRADE FORMULAE
Lane's (1988) notation
Component Throughput Basic Variable Cost Capacity Quantity (/unit throughput) (/throughput/ yr) Mining Mineralised 1 m M Material Milling Ore x h H Marketing Mineral xg k K
Where: x is the proportion of mineralised material classified as ore. g is the average grade of the ore expressed as a mineral:ore ratio.
Other variables used in notation include:
r cut-off grade applied to mineralised material to define ore (mineral:ore ratio). y yield or recovery in the treatment process. j fixed costs per year . p price per unit of mineral sold. c cash flow per unit of mineralised material. t time taken to work through one unit of mineralised material. r discount rate, cost of capital. V maximum possible net present value from the operation. rV equals F, the opportunity cost of investing the mines capital elsewhere. v: incremental present value for each unit of resource is derived.
The cash flow derived from one unit of mineralised material is: c = (p - k) xyg xh - m - ft The optimum cut-off grade is thus that grade which maximises the expression: Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 22 of 23
c-Ft By substituting for c the following expression of incremental present value for each unit of resource is derived, call it v: v = (p - k) xyg xh m - (j + F)t Present Value Analysis
Time T Resource Available R Variables defining Short interval t Exploitation Strategy O Small increment r Time per unit of resource t Exploitation Strategy for t e
Present Value V = V (T, R, O) (also W) Maximum P.V. V* = V* (T, R) Opportunity Cost F = oV* - dV*/dT Cash Flow C per year c per unit of resource Increment in P .V. v per unit of resource Cost of Capital o (100o %) Terminal Value I
Economic Model Throughput Variable Cost Capacity (/unit throughput) (throughput/year) Mining Material m M Treating Ore h H Marketing Mineral k K
Fixed or Time costs f per year Price p per unit of material Cut-off Grade g mineral/unit of ore Optimum Cut-offs G mineral/unit of ore Average Grade g mineral/unit of ore Ore/Material Ratio x Yield during treatment y (100y %) Cutoff Grade Mongolian Mining Evaluation Economics Short Course, 2011 Page 23 of 23
Quantities q Stockpile recovery cost s per unit of material Stockpile size S units of material Cut-off intercepts T 1 , T 2 mineral/unit of ore
Suffixes denote years or have particular significance in the context. Certain other symbols are also used with strictly local definitions.