S2 Proceedings-Keynote V2 Public

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23
rd
-26
th
March 2004
Workshop Proceedings
Keynote paper
Seminar 2
End-User acceptance
and potential for LTS:
Experiments and
modelling
[FP6 Project: SES6-CT-2003-503516]
Document Name: End-User acceptance and potential for LTS: experiments and modelling Date: 28/06/2004
ID: S2_PRO~2 Security: Public
Revision: Public Page 2/30
Document Information
Document Name: End-User acceptance and potential for LTS: experiments and modelling
ID: S2_Proceedings-Keynote_V2_Public
WP : 3
Task : 3.1
Revision: Public
Revision Date: 28/06/2004
Author: IIE-UPV
Diffusion list
EU-DEEP Partners Contact Points
Approvals
Name Company Date Visa
Author Carlos lvarez IIE-UPV
Work Package Leader Seppo Krkkinen VTT 13/09/04 YES
Rapporteur Ingelo Cobelo Labein
Internal contradictor Petros Dokopoulos AUTH
Internal contradictor Seppo Krkkinen VTT
Reviewer C. Protogeropoulos CRES
Coordinator Etienne Gehain GdF
Documents history
Revision Date Modification Author
Draft 09/03/04 March workshop seminar version IIE-UPV
V0 16/04/04 Workshop proceedings version IIE-UPV
V0.1 21/04/04 Format modifications Etienne Gehain
V1 14/05/04 Workshop proceedings version CRES modifications IIE-UPV
Public 28/06/04 Public version
General purpose of this document
The aim of these document is to provide a discussion basis for Seminar 2: End user
acceptance and potential for LTS: Experiments and modelling of the WP2-WP3 March Workshops
(Brussels, 23
rd
-26
th
March).
Content
1. Scope of The Review____________________________________________________ 5
2. Key issues____________________________________________________________ 5
2.1. Paper organization __________________________________________________ 6
3. State Of The Knowledge _________________________________________________ 7
3.1. Literature review. ___________________________________________________ 7
3.1.1. Reported experiments: ____________________________________________________7
3.1.2. Modelling methodologies: __________________________________________________8
3.1.3. Others models___________________________________________________________9
3.1.4. Distributed Generation ___________________________________________________10
3.2. The Economic Problem ______________________________________________ 11
3.3. Models for processes identification ____________________________________ 13
3.4. Physically Based Load Modelling ______________________________________ 17
3.4.1. Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps models _____________________________________17
3.4.2. Thermal Storage Loads (TES) ______________________________________________19
3.4.3. Aggregation Methodologies ________________________________________________21
3.4.4. Validation _____________________________________________________________21
4. Areas Where Knowledge Lacks But Must Be Gathered _________________________ 25
4.1. Lack of linkage between physical knowledge and historical data _____________ 25
4.2. Lack of linkage between consumer and market possibilities _________________ 26
5. What must be abandoned from the past in this area to favour DER? ______________ 26
6. What needs to be operational five years from now? __________________________ 27
7. References __________________________________________________________ 27
1. Scope of The Review
This keynote paper is an attempt to review the existing knowledge (modelling methodologies
and experiments) and identify the areas in which the work has to be directed in EU-DEEP in order to
predict and validate the acceptance and potential that the Local Trading Strategies to be developed
and proposed in the framework of EU-DEEP will probably have in the end-user.
These acceptance and potential may be basic to enhance the expansion of Distributed Energy
Resources in Europe over the next 5-15 years.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) identifies the following barriers for the expansion of
DER:
- Technical barriers
- Structural barriers
- Legal Barriers
- Lack of Capacity response
- Financial barriers
- Tradition
The objectives of the seminars of the actual workshop cover these barriers.
Issues referring to technical barriers are tackled in seminars: S7 (metering needs and
standards), S8 (Data communication needs and standards) and S9 (automation and control issues).
Market structures to eliminate the barriers to the expansion of DER are the objective of S5
(methodologies to build market configurations suited for DER deployment). Seminar S10 (Network
regulation under large development of DER) deals with legal barriers and S6 (methodologies for DER
economic appraisal) involves the financial barrier. End-users have not traditionally directly involved
in electricity markets and the expansion of DER and LTS requires a change in their behaviours. This
traditional barrier should be tackle through the possible solution to the rest ones.
This keynote paper, as basis document for S2 (end-user acceptance and potential for LTS:
experiments and modelling) addresses the lack of capacity response obtained from the
customers. Evaluating the acceptance and potential for LTS could detect the reasons and possible
solutions for this lack of capacity response.
This paper has basically been generated with the information provided by the contributors:
AUTH, IIE-UPV, VTT
2. Key issues
The main issues to perform the analysis in the end-user, that includes its acceptance and the
potential benefits that can be derived for the customer energy bill has to rely on the evaluation of
the impact that any considered trading strategy may have on:
- Service provided by the energy consumption (production, comfort, etc.)
- Total energy and service cost
The methodologies to evaluation of this impact of LTS in the end user need to rely in a
comprehensive knowledge of the behaviour of the customer and its consumption processes in
different supply scenarios. This knowledge can be obtained by means of two complementary
methodologies:
- By performing suitable experiments and surveys.
- By implementing simulation studies based on suitable models.
The availability of this knowledge provides information about the perception by the end-user
of the modifications on the service provided by a specific trading strategy and a further evaluation of
its economical impact has to be addressed in order to perform a cost/benefit analysis for this
strategy.
The models suitable for impact evaluation can be based on:
- Data gathered on the customer facilities, both in normal or LTS test conditions
- Physical knowledge of the customer load s and possesses
Consequently, the evaluation of the impact and potential in end-user facilities to be
considered in this paper is to be addressed from the two perspectives: models and experimental
campaigns.
2.1. Paper organization
In order to develop the key issues mentioned this paper is organized as follows: Next section
(section 3) is devoted to the state of the art. This section begins with a literature review on the
following subjects (subsection 3.1):
1. Models
2. Experimental campaigns
The tools reported so far by the contributors to solve the problems involved in the
assessment of the end-user acceptance and potential will be presented next:
- Economical problem: Model provided by AUTH (Subsection 3.2)
- Processes identification: Model obtained from the PRIMES project (Subsection3.3)
- Load element response modelling: Physically based models developed by IIE-UPV and
validation through the comparison of simulation results with metered data of
experimental campaigns provided by IIE-UPV (Assessing the air conditioner and heat
storage load models.) and VTT (Direct load control response experiments)
(Subsection3.4).
Conclusions from the contributions will be drawn in sections 4 and 5 where the areas to be
further researched and the concepts that must be abandoned from the past are identified. Section 6
refers to what needs to be operational five years from now.
Section 7 establishes some orientations for EU-DEEP research and proposes a methodology to
organize the customer demand for LTS purposes, by fully consider the physical knowledge of the
consumer processes with the models described in previous sections. This methodology was proposed
in IEE-UPV contribution. Another proposal that establishes the link between some of the models
explained in previous sections is also described in the section.
Finally, allies stakeholders and treaths for EU-DEEP in this area within the next 18 are
identified in sections 8 and 9.
3. State Of The Knowledge
3.1. Literature review.
The customer flexibility is basic for the assessment of end user acceptance and potential for
LTS. This flexibility has been investigated by test field experiments and simulations, being the
objective to find the customer response to prices and tariffs.
Modelling customer demand and response capabilities and willingness. This model
development is often associated, for validation purposes, to measurement campaigns. More difficult
to model is the actual reaction of the customers, where some additional issues may interfere such as
attitude, mood, result of football scores, etc. In this case, experiments and enquiries seem to be the
only way to identify it.
3.1.1. Reported experiments:
[1] investigated the customers reaction to price changes by measuring the hourly
fluctuations in the customers use of electricity. The tariff consisted of two price steps that were
changed in real time using ripple control. Read signal light was used to show the high price periods
to the customers. The response of 20 households and 10 farms were studied. Electric heating
households were excluded from the tests. [2] reports how this research continued and what were
the results. A yellow signal light was added. It indicated that high price is coming the next day. Also
new customer groups were added. These included electric heating customers, services and small to
medium size industries, and commerce, education and offices. The results show that dynamic tariffs
influenced the peak consumption of electricity. The end report of this project is in Finnish [3] but an
overview of the results is in [4] and[5].
[6] reports customers reactions to real time prices. The customers belonged to industry such
as pulp, paper and sawmills. The energy consumption of the customers increased in the off-peak
periods. There was price elasticity and customers reacted to different levels of prices.
[7]explores the potential benefits of real time tariffs to the individual customer using price
and demand data from California. The response consists of rescheduling the use of residential
appliances and air conditioning. [7] asserts that load management can have a dramatic effect on the
utility bill for individual consumers and potentially on wholesale electricity prices, if markets
encourage price responsive demand and consumers are able to predictably respond to high price
signals by shifting load. Exposing customers to real time pricing provides the needed incentive to
create demand elasticity.
The financial benefits of real time tariffs for both the customer and the utility are estimated
by [8], [3] p. 370-371 and [9] p. 63-71. In all of them the costs or inconvenience caused by load
shedding to the users of the building are neglected in the benefit analysis. They are implicitly taken
into account in the design of the automatic load control strategy by [8] and [9] while in the four
experiments described by [3] the customer response was manual and based on light panel
information. The omission of other customer costs than the electricity costs from the analysis is
natural, when the benefits are estimated from the electricity companys point of view, because it is
only the customer who knows the time to time other losses and costs or the value of inconvenience.
However, it is important to remember this when interpreting the results.
[8], [10] and [11] present the combination of real time pricing and automated control of
large commercial buildings. The described buildings are very large hotels with a power consumption
of several megawatts. In this scale dynamic tariffs are clearly beneficial to both the customer and
the power company. Automatic control is reported to be superior to manual response to real time
tariffs. The prices are hourly price profiles that are sent in advance, probably the previous evening.
In this scale dynamic tariffs are clearly beneficial to both the customer and the power company.
Linking automated energy management systems in commercial buildings and industrial
facilities to hourly electricity price signals can be beneficial to power suppliers and consumers
alike.[12] reports some such systems
3.1.2. Modelling methodologies:
Modelling of residential appliance loads for use in Demand Management programs (DSM,
DSB,..), has been a concern for the last two decades, [13]. In this way, models based only on
historical data have been developed,[14][15], but they do not offer results with a sufficiently
enough accuracy: on one hand, the model parameters are obtained during the normal state of
Power System, which is altered by LM actions; and on the other hand, these parameter values are
different for each Power System, so it is not possible to apply a specific load model on any other
Power System. Walker and Pokoski,[16], suggested an empirical model based on historical data and
lifestyle, but weather fluctuations were neglected and thus results were not as accurate as it was
expected.
PBLM methodologies have been widely used, because they are able to predict the individual
load dynamic response and allow to obtain the aggregated response of these loads efficiently.
Therefore, the problem can be decomposed into two sub-problems: modelling individual loads, at
the elemental level, and subsequently devising schemes to aggregate these elemental load models.
A great quantity of models based on this methodology have been developed and used, but, in our
opinion, they have not generally given the results expected by the utilities, due to the hypothesis
and simplifications that have normally been assumed. The main parameters which have been
neglected are the following: the solar radiation, [13], [17][19], which can be an important internal
load contribution and it should be taken into account, for example the portion of solar radiation
which introduces through glazed surfaces and is converted into internal load immediately. Duty-
cycle and consumption of thermal electric loads (HVAC, TES) depend on the room orientation and
can vary substantially between rooms with different orientations. Thermal capacity of walls is
another parameter that in most cases has not been explicitly considered, [13], [17][19]. This lack
has produced internal temperature evolutions and consumption predictions not as accurate as it
should be desired; since indoor air is not really subjected to the thermal difference between the
outdoor and indoor temperatures, but it is exchanging energy with the internal surfaces of walls and
partitions, which have a temperature evolution significantly different of the outdoor temperature,
[20]. Other PBLM models have explicitly considered thermal capacity of walls and partitions as well
as solar radiation on external wall surfaces, [21], however, they have neglected the solar radiation
through the fenestration areas and the furnishing thermal capacity, which considerably modifies the
building thermal behaviour, [22]. Therefore, it seems that the use of excessively simplified models
based on this methodology can offer results very far from the real results. In this way, Reed,
Broadwater and Handrasekaran [23] applied the model suggested in [13] to predict duty-cycle
variations and the effect of load control intensities on the indoor temperature. They simulated
different Direct Load Control programs for four hours. Their simulated results indicated that the
interior temperature tended asymptotically to the external temperature with a slope around 5 C per
15 minutes whereas the maximum difference between internal and external temperature was 8 C.
This slope is, according to our measures, much larger than a normal value for a typical room.
Mainly, these discrepancies are due to neglect the thermal capacity of walls as well as the internal
mass, obtaining results which are excessively far from the reality.
Other authors have suggested a simplified dynamic first order model. They have introduced a
target temperature which was approached asymptotically by the internal temperature when the
conditioner device remained off. Therefore, this proposed model is simple, but the main difficulty is
to determine that target temperature which is related to weather parameters and internal variables.
This model has also been used in several cases, assuming that this target temperature was equal to
the external temperature, [24].
A lot of control policies have been considered during the last decade as not acceptable to the
customers, since those do not maintain the minimum comfort levels. From the supply side, they
suffer an important secondary effect of DSM programs implantation: the increase of residential load
curve peak as a consequence of the loss of diversity after the control period -payback effect-. An
intelligent control strategy could partially mitigate these problems, but, in our opinion, only through
the use of detailed models.
3.1.3. Others models
Others models have been proposed and tested for real time and time of use tariffs response
and optimisation, as reported in:
[25] categorizes various types of consumer loads to facilitate optimal consumer response to
time variable tariffs. It uses linear and integer programming as solution techniques. [26]
investigated in theory some consumer response models and their interaction with utility operations.
Real time pricing can be implemented in different forms. [27] provided simulation examples
of response differences for some different types of real time pricing.
Also[28], [29] and [30] tell about the customer responses to real-time pricing of electricity.
[31] is concerned with the analysis and development of electricity tariffs for indirect load control.
These tariffs use price messages. In addition it presents consumer load models.
Some customers respond to the real time pricing by modifying or rescheduling electricity
usage. This makes the short-term load forecasting more complicated than with fixed tariffs. [32]
discussed this issue and represented an artificial neural networks based solution model for real-time
pricing related short term load forecasting. [33] applied fuzzy logic for this problem. [34] proposed a
two stage short term load forecasting system that consists of an artificial neural network based
prise-insensitive short-term load forecasting along with fuzzy logic based module that transforms
the price insensitive forecast to a price sensitive forecast. [35] addresses short term load
forecasting under spot pricing. [36] studied by simulation the customer response under different
consumer behaviour scenarios. [37] is a revised and more complete version of the same paper. [38]
adds inter-temporal factors to such customer behaviour models and compares day-ahead dynamic
tariffs with a tariff where the price is declared online.
[39] describes a customised electricity pricing mechanism and a knowledge-based end user
demand response modelling tool. A case study in included, where the response of an industrial
customer to dynamic electricity prices is modelled. [40] analyses the potential of fictitious industrial
customers for cost savings through real time pricing and demand rescheduling. The analysis is
idealised because of several assumptions such as no losses due to load scheduling occur.
[41] presents an overview of an algorithm for scheduling of single storage electricity
consuming processes. [42] and [43] report experiments on real time based control of heat storage
in three commercial buildings, two of these with water storage and one with earth storage. For
minimising the heating cost this experiment used a fast non-simplex algorithm, but any linear
programming algorithm can be used. The system model was a linear model with first degree
dynamics and constrained state and control. Operational results of the experiment were reported.
The savings were compared to those estimated for a time of use tariff. The savings were increased
close to 50%. [44] studies how the sizing of thermal storage affects the benefits of real-time
pricing. The results of the examples show that under real time prices higher utility savings can be
realised for both under-sized and over-sized electric thermal storage systems when compared to
time of use tariffs. The benefits do not diminish due to incorrect storage size as fast as with time of
use rates. Operational and capital costs of the system were also discussed.
Building HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning) controls are typically operated to
minimise operating costs. [45] describes an optimisation algorithm designed to minimise overall
operating costs under real time electricity prices. It examines the mathematical properties of a set
of linear difference equations that give a very simple model of the thermal dynamics of the building.
It finds them to be asymptotically stable, positive dynamic systems. Impulse response vector was
used when calculating the elementary direction vectors in order to reduce the calculation time. This
permits a much more rapid and elegant series of calculations than is possible with conventional
linear programming techniques.
[46] reports how cost reflective messages combined and optimisation of electricity use have
been applied in UK already for several years. Two load control techniques are considered. One is
CELECT that was first implemented using Echelon LonWorks building control networks and had local
control for each heater in the house [47]. Later CELECT versions used the European Home Systems
(EHS) home automation network technology, centralised the control system and incorporated
domestic hot water management. Optimisation is based on a model that predicts the consequences
of planned actions. Cost and a quantitative measure of comfort are outputs of the model. The
controllable inputs are the heat charging schedules and the uncontrollable inputs are occupancy
profile, weather forecast and the cost reflective messages. The optimisation requires a model with
10-minute time steps and covering 48 hours. Thus the search space is too large for exhaustive
search and a complicated heuristics search based approach was applied. Both running costs and
comfort were improved in the trials. However, the costs of the system and its installation were high
compared to these benefits. The other control technique is GeMMS (Generic Modular Management
System. It has been applied in ice storage for air conditioning, water pumping and dairy farm energy
management. In the farms the controllable loads consist of pumping water, heating water, and milk
chilling and multiple room cool stores. The optimisation is based on a genetic scheduler and a
module that predicts the cost of any schedule. The practical feasibility of the CELECT and GeMMS
concepts has been demonstrated, but the systems have so far been relatively expensive compared
to the benefits. However, it is expected that technical development will reduce the costs enough in
the near future.
[48] studied by simulation three cases. The first was space heating and ventilation under real
time prices. The second was inclusion of continuous controllable loads such as electrolysis directly in
the optimisation of heat and power generation and purchase. The third was scheduling a steel plant
under real time prices. In the space heating the controllable inputs included heating and ventilation.
Uncontrollable inputs were weather forecast, schedule of hourly prices and planned occupancy.
Among other things the results show that co-ordinating the ventilation and heating controls
improves the load control. The optimisation horizon was short due to the limitations of the SQP-
optimisation (Sequential Quadratic Programming) method and improved optimisation method would
be needed for a practical implementation. The prototype steel making scheduling system gives
among other things the energy costs of the planned schedules. Thus the real time prices of
electricity and gas can be taken into account when comparing and refining the schedules. In some
figures in [49] hourly supply and demand prices of electricity are compared in the energy
management of a company consisting of several different base metal production plants.
[50] and [51] describe agent based power load management. The auctioneer agent defines
the real time price based on the demand functions of the consumer agents and the supply functions
of the producer agents. This market price is then broadcast to all agents.
[52] discuss optimal control of building thermal storage. The building under study includes
multiple operational modes. These include a heating mode and three cooling modes. Because of
switching between these modes of operation the optimisation problem is not smooth. The problem
was solved using a direct search complex method that does not assume smoothness. The dynamic
optimisation problem is repeated over increasing number of hour increments until 24 hours are
covered. Experimental and simulated results of such a system for space cooling are reported by
[53]. Significant reductions in energy costs and peak demand were reported compared to a
conventional night setback control.
3.1.4. Distributed Generation
Some reported methodologies include Distributed Generation.
Cogeneration of heat and electricity has long been used for demand side management
purposes and its importance is increasing. Customers use it as a load management mechanism in
order to gain maximum financial benefit from the agreement. Real time pricing increases potential
for this benefit. [54] concentrates on the scheduling of cogeneration under real time pricing. It deals
with the extended value that real time pricing gives to cogeneration. Results for two cogeneration
plants are reported.
3.2. The Economic Problem
Assessing the end user acceptance and capability to benefit from tailored trading strategies
will finally lead to an economical problem whose main components are described next.
Energy and power flow in a facility using Distributed Energy resources has the form depicted
in Fig. 1.
1. Power exchange with grid PGR
2. Power of DER PDER
3. Power exchange with storage
PSTO
4. Power flowing into the Load PL
P
GR
P
L
P
STO
P
DER
Fig. 1. Power flows in a facility using DER
The power sources, in each of the 4 above categories, can be more than one, e.g. we may
have one or more feeding lines or one or more DER generators. Power can also be positive or
negative, following the above convention.
Considering operation for a time ahead, PL is a forecasted value. Also PDER is a forecasted
value in case of wind, PV and other renewable energy sources.
The enterprise which owns the site has expenses (+E) and revenues (-R) for running the
above mentioned power park for a period of time T ahead, as explained in a next paragraph. T can
be any reasonable time (usually a few days) and it is discredited in n equally spaced intervals .
Our interest is to minimize expenses or to maximize revenues; therefore we define the following
objective function
1
n
j
F Ej Rj
=
=
(1)
Objective of LTS is to minimize F by selecting suitably PDER and PSTO, and fulfilling at any
time t all imposed constrains related to operation as well as other factors as defined in the next
paragraphs.
It is an optimisation problem which can be solved using optimisation platforms (such as
LINDO) or customized software evolution algorithms. The problem is becoming very demanding if
energy storages are present.
Running expenses
Running expenses considered are as follows:
1. Fuel consumption cost, they depend on PDER, while consumption as a function of DER
is given by the manufacturer
2. Start up cost (i.e. in case of thermal units)
3. Shut down cost (i.e. in case of thermal units)
4. Expenses for energy import coming from the grid, i.e. PGR, depending on the market
situation
Revenues
1. Revenues from energy export (PDER - PL - PSTO)
2. Revenues from selling services to the system (Transmission System Operator)
reactive power, reserves etc.
Constrains
1. Initial state of the plant, t=0
2. Power balance: Input power equals output power
PDER+PGRID=PL+PSTO
3. Unit operating constrains:
3.1. Time depended upper and lower limits are important for thermal plants.
Upper and lower limits depend on the time the plant needs to changes its
power, i.e. we may want to change the power to Pmax within a time t but
the plant is too slow.
3.2. Minimum Up and Down times of the DER.
3.3. Unit status i.e. the unit must run, availability.
4. Plant crew constrains
5. Spinning reserves
6. Storage constrains:
6.1. Discharge Rate limits
6.2. Charge Rate limits
6.3. Continuity limit, i.e.
t P W W
STO j j
A + =
1
6.4. Storage limits, i.e.
W
min
<W
j
W
max
6.5. Initial and target Energy
W
jmin
=W
start
W
jmax
=W
stop
Forecasting
The optimisation is made for the future operation. Therefore several values have to be
forecasted, such as
1. PL, Load forecasting
2. PDER in case of wind, solar energy
3. Unit price of grid energy
4. Unit price for injection of DER in the grid
5. Price for supplied service
Regarding the models for the customer load power requirements (PL in figure 1), Physically
Based Load Modelling (PBLM) Methodology seems to be the most suitable as it considers the real
behaviour of the load and the actual service it is providing to the customer.
In order to develop the total model for the complete load of the consumer it is necessary to
identify all the different processes existing in the customer facility so that they can be individually
modelled and aggregated according to the control to be performed upon them. Some models have
been proposed for the process identification. Next section explains an example.
3.3. Models for processes identification
In order to determine, for all customers suitable to implement DER and LTS the power and
energy flows pointed out in the previous section, it is necessary to identify the processes that are
present in a typical customer of the studied segment.
Different methodologies have been proposed in the literature for that purpose. The one that is
described next corresponds to one developed in the framework of an EC project (developed in Lab
E3M of NTUA)
The demand-side sub-models of PRIMES V.2 have a uniform structure. Each sub-model
represents a sector that is further decomposed into sub-sectors and then into energy uses. A
technology operates at the level of an energy use and utilises energy forms (fuels). The following
graphic (Fig. 2) illustrates the hierarchical decomposition of the demand-side models.
Fig. 2 Hierarchical decomposition of the demand-side models
The data that is necessary to calibrate the model for a base year (1995) and a country (all EU
member-states) can be divided in the following categories.
- Macro-economic data that correspond to demographics national accounts, sectorial
activity and income variables. These data usually apply to sectors.
- Structure of energy consumption along the above-described tree in the base year and
structure of activity variables (production, dwellings, passenger-kilometres, etc.).
Some indicators regarding specific energy consumption are also needed for calibration.
The databases MURE, IKARUS, ODYSSE and national sources have been used.
- Technical-economic data for technologies and sub-sectors (e.g. capital cost, unit
efficiency, variable cost, lifetime, etc.).
The basic source of data for energy consumption by sector and fuel is Eurostat (detailed
energy balance sheets). By using additional information (surveys of cogeneration operation and
capacities and surveys on boilers), the balance sheets have been modify in order to represent
explicitly the production of steam.
According to PRIMES definitions, steam includes industrial steam and distributed heat (at
small or large scale). In the balance sheets, Eurostat reports on steam production in the
transformation input/output only if the producers sell that steam. If the steam, irrespectively of the
way it is produced (e.g. a boiler or a CHP plant), is used for self-consumption only, Eurostat
accounts for only the fuels used to produce that steam and includes these fuels in final energy
consumption. The PRIMES database consists in introducing that steam (for self-consumption) in the
final energy consumption tables of the balance sheets and inserting the fuels used to produce that
steam in the table of transformation input and output. This is necessary for the model to calibrate to
a base year that properly accounts for the existing cogeneration activities (even if they are used for
self-generation of steam).
The fuel types are as follows:
1. Solid fuels except lignite and
peat
2. Lignite and Peat
3. Residual Fuel Oil
4. Diesel Oil
5. Liquefied Petroleum Gas
6. Kerosene
7. Gasoline
8. Naphtha
9. Other oil products
10. Bio-fuels
11. Natural and derived gas
12. Thermal Solar (active)
13. Geothermal low enthalpy
14. Steam (industrial and
distributed heat)
15. Electricity
16. Biomass and Waste
17. Hydrogen
Industrial Sector
The industrial sector consists of nine sectors. For each sector different sub-sectors are
defined. At the level of each sub-sector a number of different energy uses are represented. A
technology at the level of an energy use may consume different types of fuels (one of which is
steam generated from the power and steam sub-model of PRIMES, so only steam distribution and
use costs are accounted for in the demand-side, together with a price for steam).
The structure for the industrial sector is given in Table I:
Table I. Structure for the industrial sector
SECTORS SUB-SECTORS ENERGY USES
Air compressors Low enthalpy heat
Blast furnace Motor drives
Electric arc Process furnaces
Electric process Rolled steel
Foundries Sinter making
Iron and Steel
Electric arc
Iron and Steel integrated
Lighting
Steam and high enthalpy
heat
Air compressors
Lighting
Motor drives
Electric furnace
Electrolysis
Process furnaces
Electric kilns
Low enthalpy heat
Non ferrous
metals
production
Primary aluminium
production
Secondary aluminium
production
Copper production
Zinc production
Lead production
Steam and high enthalpy heat
Air compressors
Low enthalpy heat
Lighting
Motor drives
Electric processes
Steam and high enthalpy heat
Thermal processes
Chemicals
production
Fertilizers
Petrochemical
Inorganic chemicals
Low enthalpy chemicals
Energy use as raw material
Electric kilns Low enthalpy heat
Cement kilns Glass annealing thermal
Air compressors Glass tanks thermal
Lighting Material kilns
Motor drives Drying and separation
Building
materials
production
Cement dry
Ceramics and bricks
Glass basic production
Glass recycled production
Other building materials
production
Glass annealing electric Tunnel kilns
Glass tanks electric
Lighting Low enthalpy heat
Motor drives Pulping steam
Pulping electric Drying and separation
Refining electric Refining steam
Paper and pulp
production
Chemical paper
Mechanical pulp and
paper
heat
Air compressors Low enthalpy heat
Cooling and refrigeration Space heating
Lighting
Drying and separation
thermal
Motor drives Specific heat
Drying and separation electric Direct heat
Food, Drink and
Tobacco
production
Food, Drink and Tobacco
goods
heat
Air compressors
heat
Lighting Low enthalpy heat
Motor drives Space heating
Drying and separation electric
thermal
Machinery Coating thermal
Coating electric Foundries thermal
Engineering Engineering goods
Foundries electric Direct heat
Air compressors
heat
Cooling and refrigeration Low enthalpy heat
Lighting Space heating
Motor drives
thermal
Drying and separation electric Direct heat
Textiles
production
Textiles goods
Machinery
Low enthalpy heat
Space heating
thermal
Specific heat
Direct heat
Other industrial
sectors
Other industrial sectors
goods
Air compressors
Lighting
Motor drives
Drying and separation electric
Machinery
heat
Tertiary Sector
The tertiary sector comprises of 4 sectors. At the level of the sub-sectors, the model structure
defines groups of energy uses, which are further subdivided in energy uses defined according to the
pattern of technology. The structure is as follows:
Table II. Tertiary sector structure
SECTORS ENERGY USES ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
Lighting Lighting
Space heating Heating/Cooling
Electrical uses Greenhouses
Pumping Pumping
Agriculture
Motor energy Motor drives
Lighting Lighting
Space heating Electric heating/cooling
Air conditioning Gas heating/cooling
Electrical uses Boiler heating/cooling
Water heating District heating
Greenhouses
Offices and
Services
Electrical equipment
Lighting Lighting
Services
Trade
Steam uses Boiler heating/cooling
Electrical uses District heating
Water heating Greenhouses
Lighting Lighting
Steam uses Boiler heating/cooling
Electrical uses District heating
Water heating Greenhouses
Public services
Residential Sector
The residential sector distinguishes five categories of dwelling. These are defined according to
the main technology used for space heating. They may use secondary heating as well. At the level of
the sub-sectors, the model structure defines the categories of dwellings, which are further
subdivided in energy uses. The electric appliances for non-heating and cooling are considered as a
special sub-sector, which is independent of the type of dwelling. The structure is as follows (Table
III):
Table III. Residential sector structure
SECTORS HOUSEHOLD TYPES ENERGY USES
Central boiler households that may also use gas connected to the central boiler
(flats)
Space heating
Households with mainly electric heating equipment (non partially heated) Cooking
Households with direct gas equipment for heating (direct gas for flats and gas
for individual houses)
Water heating
Households connected to district heating Air conditioning
Dwellings
Partially heated dwellings and agricultural households
Washing
machines
Dish washers
Dryers
Lighting
Refrigerators
Electric
Equipment
Television sets
Transport sector
The transport sector distinguishes passenger transport and goods transport as separate
sectors. They are further subdivided in sub-sectors according to the transport mean (road, air, etc.).
At the level of the sub-sectors, the model structure defines several technology types (car technology
types, for example), which correspond to the level of energy use. The structure is as follows (Table
IV):
Table IV. Transport sector structure
SECTORS SUB-SECTORS ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES
Busses
Internal combustion
engines
Motorcycles Electric motors and hybrid
Private cars Fuel cell
Passenger trains Gas turbine and CNG
Air transports
Passenger transports
Navigation passengers
Trucks
Internal combustion
engines
Trains Electric motors and hybrid
Navigation Fuel cell
Goods transports
Gas turbine and CNG
3.4. Physically Based Load Modelling
Modelling of the processes identified provides a powerful tool to evaluate the load demand
flexibility and dynamic response during a control period that may be required when implementing a
Local Strategy.
In order to demonstrate the powerfulness of PBLM, physically based electrical load models of
Heating, Air Conditioning and Thermal Energy Storage residential loads are presented in this section.
These models are based on energy balances between the internal air, the dwelling constructive
elements, the conditioner appliances, energy storage capabilities and the external environment
through a discrete state-space stochastic equation system.
Air Conditioning and Thermal Storage Loads are typical devices to be used in LTS
alternatives, since they are related to some kind of energy thermal storage. These thermal inertias
generally allow us to separate the demanded electrical energy intervals (electrical demand) from the
intervals in which that energy is used by the customers (service demand).
The individual models proposed here are based on energy balances between the external
environment, the conditioner device and the internal air together with the indoor mass through a
state-space equation system.
3.4.1. Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps models
The first one, which is related to air conditioner and heat pump appliances, can be adequately
represented by the following thermal balance, which is showed in Fig. 3. This elemental system is
flexible enough to model any conditioned room, with only modifying its parameters. The model is an
extension of one of the models previously proposed by IIE-UPV jointly with UPCT
1
[19], [56].
Solar Radiation
External Walls + Glazed Surfaces
Internal Load Generation
Air Cond.
External Energy
Exchange
INDOOR ENVIRONMENT
Internal Walls
Internal Energy
Exchange
OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENT
Fig. 3. Energy balance of the AC elemental load
For simplicity, the analogy between the heat transmission processes and the electrical circuit
theory has been used. Therefore, it is possible to establish an electrical circuit equivalent to the
energy balance of the elemental system (Fig. 4).
1
UPCT: Universidad Politcnica de Cartagena
ext
X
w e
I

w e
C
int
C
HVAC
I
w i
C
r adj
X

l i e
I I

+
c e
R
w e
R

'
w e
R

'
surf g
R

w i
R

'
w i
R

'
Off On
m

Fig. 4. Equivalent electrical circuit for AC elemental load
Where:
e w
C

: Thermal capacity of the external walls
int
C : Indoor thermal capacity (Internal air + Furniture)
i w
C
: Thermal capacity of the internal walls

e i l
I I

+ : Solar radiation that introduces through glazed surfaces plus internal load generation
e w
I

: Solar radiation on external wall faces
HVAC
I : Value associated with the power supply
On Off
m

: Discrete variable that represents the operating state of the device (1 for ON and 0 for OFF)
e c
R

: External convection resistance between external environment and external wall faces
'
e w
R

: Half equivalent thermal resistance of the external walls
g surf
R

: Equivalent thermal resistance of external glazed surfaces
'
i w
R

: Half equivalent thermal resistance of the internal walls
ext
X : External temperature evolution
adj r
X

: Adjoining room temperature evolution
The way of modelling external as well as internal walls is a simplification of the electrical
model proposed by Dominguez, Herrera and Alvarez, [57], for multilayer walls. In the same way,
heat transmission between the test room and the upper and lower floors have been neglected from
the collected data of internal temperatures. The air conditioner model has initially been implemented
by means of a linear relationship between the external and internal temperatures, its nominal
Coefficient Of Performance (COP) and nominal electrical power. The state-space equation system is:
( )
d
x A x B u
dt
= + (2)
y C x D u = + (3)
Where:
int e w i w
C C C
x X X X

(
=

: State-space variable vector
ext e w e i l HVAC adj r
u X I I I I X

( = +

: Input parameter vector
int
C
y X =
: Output variable
D C B A , , ,
: Matrix of State-space system
0
x
: Column vector of initial conditions
The state-space equation system has been implemented using Matlab as shown in Fig. 5.
2
1
x' = Ax+Bu
y = Cx+Du
State-Space
Selector
6
5
3
2
1
External Temp.
Solar Rad. on Walls
Solar Rad. on Glazed-Surf.
Adjoining Room Temp.
Initial State of Air Condit.
Target Indoor Temp.
Indoor Temp. Simul.
Interior Global Load
Cooling Power
4
7
Thermostat
Deadband
Fig. 5. State-space equation subsystem simulation
3.4.2. Thermal Storage Loads (TES)
The second elemental model is focused on individual houses with TES heaters. An energy
balance analysis has been applied again to the system integrated by the housing, the external
environment outdoors temperature and radiation- and the TES device, obtaining a discrete state-
space equation system. The load model response relies on information about physical load
characteristics, internal control mechanisms Thermostat performance-, usage and environmental
parameters. In order to obtain this model it has been necessary to study several appliances of the
present market. Specifically, our model is focused on ceramic storage devices. So, Fig. 6 shows
graphically this global energy balance. It can be seen that basically the elemental heat transfer
processes are very closed between the two kinds of load (HVAC and TES).
External Walls + Glazed Surfaces
Internal Energy
Exchange
Ceramic Bricks
Radiation
Forced convect.
Internal Load Generation
Internal Walls
External Energy
Exchange
Solar Radiation
OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENT
INDOOR ENVIRONMENT
Fig. 6. Energy balance of an elemental heat storage system
Storage losses -due to radiation and natural convection- through the TES external surface to
the indoor environment during the off-peak periods do not suppose and additional energy
consumption, since these losses contribute partially to heat the room. Two kinds of TES residential
devices have been studied:
- Static Electric Thermal Storage loads (TES)
- Dynamic Electric Thermal Storage loads (DTES)
While SETS devices have a thinner insulation layer and their discharge regulation is based on
the opening/closing of a grille driven by a bimetallic mechanism, DTES devices have a higher
insulation layer and an internal fan to circulate the stored heat, helping to maintain the indoor
temperature around the thermostat set point. Therefore, two control mechanisms are needed: An
internal thermostat which controls the ceramic brick charge and the electric demand, and an
external thermostat which is related to the target indoor temperature.
For simplicity, the analogy between the heat transmission processes and the electrical circuit
theory proposed in paragraph 3.4.1 (see Fig. 4) has been used again to obtain the equations of the
elemental model.
The difference of TES loads and HVAC loads is the global heat flux from the TES device to the
indoor environment. In this way, an equivalent electric sub-circuit has been developed which takes
into account the different heat fluxes that are present. Fig. 7 shows this equivalent sub-circuit:
R Internal
X
cb
C
cb r
R

rc
I
fc
I
OFF ON
ET
OFF ON
IT

Fig. 7. Equivalent electrical sub-circuit of ETS device
Where:
cb
C : Ceramic brick thermal capacity
ON OFF
ET

: External Thermostat that controls the indoor temperature
ON OFF
IT

: Internal Thermostat that controls the ceramic brick charge during the off-peak periods
fc
I : Heat flux by Forced Convection from the ceramic bricks to the indoor -controlled by the External
Thermostat-.
rc
I : Equiv. heat flux by Radiation and Natural Convection from the TES external surface to the
indoor
r cb
R

: Thermal resistance of ceramic bricks during the charge periods
Internal R
X

: Temperature of internal charge resistances
It is possible to know several variables related with the ETS performance from this equivalent
electrical sub-circuit: Ceramic brick evolution; loss heat flux during the charge phase due to natural
convection and radiation; and electric consumption through the power related to X Internal-R.
Therefore, the global state-space equation system has the same mathematical
representation:
dx
A x B u
dt
= + (4)
y C x D u = + (5)
Where:
e w i w
C Indoor C
x X X X

(
=

: State-space variable vector
ext e w e i l Heat Storage adj r
u X I I I I X

( = +

: Input parameter vector
Indoor
y X =
: Output variable
D C B A , , ,
: Matrix of Space-state system
0
x
: Column vector of initial conditions
Therefore, this elemental model consists in a discrete state-space equation system that
comprises continuous states Temperatures- as well as discrete states Thermostats-. These kind of
models were proposed in [58], [59], and now they have been improved in order to achieve more
accurate results.
3.4.3. Aggregation Methodologies
The aggregation problem consists, for a given load control group (i.e. a set of elemental
electrical devices), consists on describing approximately the expected value of the total power
demand due to the group. An ensemble of various mathematical tools can solve this problem:
Fokker-Planck equations [19], Monte-Carlo methods or Kernel estimators. Each method has
advantages and drawbacks. For example Fokker-Planck stochastic equations allows the user to
consider the simplest elemental model: first order differential equation and devices described by
nearly identical parameters and subjected to the same control by the utility-, called Homogeneous
Control Groups (HCG). The stochastic equation is quite easy to solve, and supply a considerable
amount of information (mean operating state of the HCG and temperature) at real time, but the
model does not suit very well for broad control periods.
The second alternative is Monte-Carlo Method (MCM). In our case, the use of this method
arises to imitate the dynamical behaviour of a real aggregate load (perhaps a hundred of HVAC
appliances with different, but close parameters: a quasi-homogeneous control group (QHCG). The
mathematical solution of such a system is very difficult to solve by Fokker-Planck equations, due to
the higher order of stochastic equations at elemental level third or fourth order-. Thus the easier
and exact method is to use MCM methods because among all numerical methods that rely on a B
sample size evaluation elemental loads-, the absolute error of estimates decreases as N.
21 21,5 22 22,5 23 23,5 24 24,5 25
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
Indoor temperature (C)
24,4 24,6 24,8 25 25,2 25,4
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Indoor temperature (C)
Fig. 8. Euler discretisation and Kernel aggregation methods
The last alternative is to refine the aggregation methods through the use of smoothing
techniques to the same set of simulated elemental houses. Triangle and Gaussian kernels have been
used for the kernel estimates, obtaining similar results in both cases. The results for internal
temperature correlated by mean load demand- is shown in Fig. 8. The density distribution function
of the aggregated group suits well a normal distribution, as can been seen in the figure.
3.4.4. Validation
In order to validate the models, simulation results have been compared with collected data of
different field tests. The advantages of the models proposed here are also compared with models
previously developed and described in the specialized literature.
Assessing the air conditioner and heat storage load models.
For this purpose, the models have been tested using data belonging to houses with different
orientations, lifestyles and situated in several cities with different outdoor temperature profiles. The
data have been collected for a period of one year, in order to assess the air conditioner load model
as well as heat storage load model. For example, the main outputs of the implemented system are:
the consumption of the HVAC or TES appliance, its duty cycle and the evolution of internal
temperature. The system inputs are basically formed by: weather data outdoor temperature and
radiation levels- and time. If radiation data would be not available, it has been implemented a
subsystem which allows us to estimate the radiation levels according to the solar hour, the
orientation and the specific day of the year. In order to show the model performance, a simulation
of the air conditioner model is compared with real data in this section. The main thermal and
constructive characteristics of the test room are the following:
Table V. Main Thermal and constructive characteristics
Main thermal and constructive characteristics
Room orientation: South-West
Percent of ext. walls: 25 %
Thermal cap. of ext. walls : 1.875 MJ/C
Indoor thermal capacity: 1.2 MJ/C
Thermal cap. of int. walls : 3.1 MJ/C
External convect. Resistance: 0.005 C/W
Equivalent thermal resist. of ext. walls : 0.028 C/W
The following set of curves compare the evolution of real data internal temperature,
electrical power consumption and duty cycle- with the simulated results, taking into account the
external temperature evolution for that same time period (Fig. 9).
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
10:00
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
Time
Time
T
e
m
p
.
(
C
)
E
.
P
o
w
e
r
(
w
)
Outdoor Temp
Real
Simulated
Real
Simulated
Fig. 9. Indoor temperature and electrical load demand comparison in HVAC test appliance
As seen in that figure, the simulated and real indoor temperature evolutions are very close.
The differences between the real and simulated consumptions are mainly due to discrepancies
between switching ON and OFF moments -as a consequence of the real thermostat performance-
and COP real variations. In this case, it has been supposed a constant average demanded power,
whereas the real demanded power has fluctuations that are related to the indoor and outdoor
temperature. Nevertheless, the rest of the obtained results, which can be deduced from the previous
figure, show the suitability of this model to forecast air conditioner performance.
Table VI. Comparison of simulated results and data collected
Parameter Simulated results Real data
Duty Cycle : 45 % 45 %
Energy demanded : 1.53 kWh 1.56 kWh
Total ON Time : 82 minutes 83 minutes
Number of Cycles: 14 16
It has been studied many tests for other periods of the day and houses, obtaining values very
close to the real data, just as the previously presented. Maintaining all the previous thermal and
constructive parameters, the same room with different orientations has been simulated varying the
solar radiation levels. Table VII presents the energy demand for each main orientation, showing that
it is necessary to take into account the radiation levels, since those can clearly affect the output
variables. In all cases, it has been taken the same period time as the previous case two hours and
a half, between 10 and 12:30 AM- in order to be able to compare the obtained results.
Table VII. Comparison of results for different orientations
Orientation Duty-Cycle Total ON Time Total Energy
North 45 % 82 min. 1.53 kWh
North-East 59 % 108 min. 2 kWh
East 77 % 140 min. 2.55 kWh
South-East 75 % 135 min. 2.50 kWh
South 56 % 102 min. 1.88 kWh
South-West 45 % 82 min. 1.53 kWh
West 45 % 82 min. 1.53 kWh
North-West 45 % 82 min. 1.53 kWh
A third model could be derived from the previous HVAC load models by means of neglecting
the energy exchange between the test room and its adjoining rooms which is normally around a
15% of the total load-. This consideration would simplify both equivalent electrical circuits, since it
would be possible to remove one of their branches and decrease the number of state variables. The
main advantage of this simplification is to eliminate the adjoining room temperature evolution
parameter, which is very difficult to fix with accuracy, since it can be changing during the simulation
period and it depends on several parameters very heterogeneous and difficult to determine utility
of rooms, constructive differences, orientations, lifestyle-. If this simplification is not accomplished, a
first approximation for this parameter could be to take the average value between the test room
temperature and the external temperature.
Direct load control response experiments
Similar models (also physically based and developed by VTT) were also validated in field tests
in Finland. The verification field tests with direct load control systems were carried out between 16
th
December 1996 and 24
th
January 1997 in Finland in rather northern areas. The tests are
documented in Finnish [60] but a summary in English is in [61]. In these load control systems there
were 8283 load control terminals controlling various space-heating loads such as small houses and
ski resort holiday homes. The power at substations was measured. However power measurements of
some substations were not used in the research due to too coarse time resolution or data
communication failures. Thus the tests included 463 holiday home terminals (most of which
controlled several holiday homes each) and about 5666 small houses. Based on the measured after
peaks, it can be estimated that the total maximum power of the controlled loads included in the test
was about 20 MW. Of course the actual controllable power is much smaller except for very cold
weather.
An example of measurement data during one test day is shown Fig. 10. Four load groups
were controlled to off-state for half an hour, each group at a different time. Controls started at
10:15, 11:30, 13:15 and 14:20. (After 15:00 a data communication failure and half an hour later a
system failure show their effects on the recordings. The ripple in the data is mainly caused by the
rather large measurement pulse size.) The weather conditions were not good for load control tests,
because all the cold periods were too short. It was impossible to identify the parameters of the
traditional load control response models with required accuracy directly from this data. However, the
physically based model structure worked better.
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
aikah
t
e
h
o
asuntoalueet
loma-alueet
P
o
w
e
r
Time h
residential areas
holiday resorts
Fig. 10. Example of primary substation load measurements, 16 Dec. 1996
Four load groups were controlled one at a time, controls start at 10:15, 11:30, 13:15 and 14:20
In Fig. 11 an example of the response of the model is shown. The measured load represents
two ski resort areas (raw measurement data depicted in Fig. 10) and the measurement of a
reference day has been subtracted in order to reduce the effect of other load variations from the
results. Four different load control groups were controlled, one at a time. The outside temperature
was around -19
o
C. The parameters of the prediction model were identified from load control tests of
normal houses in another nearby utility. However, advance information on the total controllable
power and heat storage capacity was used to scale the respective parameters of the model. The
power was known. It turned out that slow dynamics are hidden behind other load variations and
thus advance information of large heat storage capacities is useful in the model.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
time [hours]
P
o
w
e
r
k
W
Simulated
Measured
Base
Fig. 11. Example of the prediction performance of the model, Dec. 16th 1996
In Fig. 12 and Fig. 13 the response of the newer model [60] is compared with a load control
response model [62] developed earlier at VTT. Fig. 12 shows also the measured response to which
the models were fitted. The measurement curve shown is the difference of a test day and the
average of several reference days. During the test the temperature was around -7
o
C. In Fig. 13 the
responses of the two models are compared when the temperature is -30
o
C.
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
aika h
t
e
h
o
M
W
vaste
simulointi
Rouvali
P
o
w
e
r
M
W
Time h
measurement
physical model
old model
Fig. 12. Comparison of the load response model of [60] and [62]. Both models are fitted to the measured response that is
also shown. Outdoors temperatures is -7C
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
aika h
t
e
h
o
M
W
si mulointi
Rouvali
vaste
P
o
w
e
r
M
W
Time h
phys. model
old model
Fig. 13. Comparison of the load response models of /1/ and 3 in a different outdoor temperature, -30C
Advanced load control terminals may limit the after-peak for example by reducing
temperature set-point temporarily. It is easy and straightforward to include such features in the
physically based model. With the earlier model that would have been very difficult. The physically
based load response model is also more suitable than the old one for applications with the
optimisation of price control.
4. Areas Where Knowledge Lacks But Must Be Gathered
The implementation and expansion of Distributed Energy Resources may be definitely
enhanced by its combination with local trading strategies, defined as trading mechanisms for a
better management of customer consumption/production through the interaction with the supply
mechanisms in which end-users play an active role.
A revision of tools developed to solve the problems associated to the evaluation of the
customer acceptance and potential of typical segment customers, i.e. process identification and load
response and organisation has been performed in previous sections.
4.1. Lack of linkage between physical knowledge and historical data
Process identification can be performed either by sector analysis based on the following
information:
1. Macro-economic sector data (demographics national accounts, sector activity and
income variables, etc.).
2. Structure of energy consumption, based on yearly activity variables (production,
dwellings, passenger-kilometres, etc.).
3. Technical-economic data for technologies and sub-sectors (capital cost, unit
efficiency, variable cost, lifetime, etc.).
Physically Based Load Modelling Methodologies (PBLM) seems to suit very well for load
response evaluation purposes. Models to simulate LTS have been described by contributors and their
computational performances, despite of their rather complex mathematical formulation, appear
reasonable. The powerfulness and accuracy of these models have been widely tested through
comparison between collected data and simulated results, obtaining values very close to the real
performances. Therefore, it can be concluded that this modelling methodology is valid to assess
various LTS opportunities.
Probably, detailed PBLM for process description in combination whit accurate methodologies
to identify the presence of different processes in customer segments (along with the associated
environmental variables such as climate, market structure, etc.) could render in a complete
customer demand description suitable for EU-DEEP purposes.
Therefore further research should be performed to develop a methodology that combines
physical knowledge with historical data.
4.2. Lack of linkage between consumer and market possibilities
Another significant point is the linking step between the end-user demand description and its
preparation to trade in the market. Once the customer potential has been evaluated through a
thorough demand description it is necessary to organize it in order to be able to use this potential in
the market.
The IEA identified a time frame for the demand-side structure that is summarized in Fig. 14
Fig. 14 Demand-side time frame (IEA)
Different products can be traded in different time-bands according to their characteristics.
Fig. 15 depicts a tutorial scheme of a demand reduction that can be traded in as an offer to
balancing or ancillary services markets.
Fig. 15 Demand reduction offers (IEA)
Therefore further research should be performed to develop a methodology to transform end-
user potential in market products that fit in this structure.
5. What must be abandoned from the past in this area to
favour DER?
It is necessary to abandon the idea of Demand Side Management controlled exclusively by
the Utility. The voluntary aspect of the management and a bilateral collaboration between the utility
and the customer is a must. However, in order the customer to agree on LTS, an adequate
methodology of the economical advantages must be presented.
6. What needs to be operational five years from now?
According to section 4 a methodology for consumer demand description and preparation for
participation in the market should be operational in five years from now in order to expand LTS
strategies. This methodology has necessarily to be based on customer data and related information
(sector economical information and data).
The new methodology should be well suited for the customer engagement in medium and
short term trades and has necessarily to be based on the detailed knowledge of the load elements
(through physically based models) and processes involved in the customer load mix.
Moreover, the demand description would require an accurate forecasting of the load
components over the time so that the customer may produce demand bids and offers that can be
successfully traded.
This organization should be adapted to the flexibility and time predictable horizon. The main
criteria that should be taken into account should be:
- Loads priority
- Storage capability
- Rescheduling possibilities
7. References
[1] Uusitalo J., Yrjl E., Research on real-time pricing of electricity, Metering Apparatus and Tariffs for
Electricity Supply, 1990., Sixth International Conference on, 3-5 Apr 1990. pp. 48-51.
[2] Kallio A., Research on real-time pricing of electricity, Metering Apparatus and Tariffs for Electricity Supply,
1992, Seventh International Conference on, 3-5 Apr 1990. pp. 13-17.
[3] Kallio, A., Helminen H., Shkn reaaliaikaisen hinnoittelun tutkimus. Loppuraportti vuosilta 1988 1993.
IVO-A-05/94. (Research on real-time pricing of electricity, final report for the years 1988-1993, In
Finnish.)
[4] Kallio A., Research on real-time pricing of electricity, Energy Efficiency and DSM Conference, September
21-23, 1993, Stockholm, Sweden, pp. 497-503.
[5] Kallio A. and Salo T., Research on real-time pricing of electricity, DA/DSM94 Europe Conference
Proceedings, September 27-29, 1994, Paris, France, Pennwell, Vol I., pp 365-376.
[6] Magnabosco P. W., OSheasy M. T., Real time pricing for purchased electricity: An innovative pricing option
for electricity as used by the pulp and paper industry. Conference Record of the Annual Pulp and Paper
Industry Technical Conference 1996, 10-14 Jun 1996, pp. 45-54.
[7] Ilic M., Black J. W., Watz J. L., Potential benefits of implementing load control, Power Engineering Society
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