Issue 55

Copyright 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

CONTENTS
p2 p10
Singapore Property News This Week Are En-bloc deals still hot?

FROM THE

EDITOR

Welcome to the 55th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Hope you like it!

p15

Resale Property Transactions

(May 23 May 29)

Mr. Propwise

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55

Singapore Property This Week

Residential
Residential supply is expected to remain high in H2 2012 An estimated upcoming supply of 28 to 30 new residential sites from both the confirmed and reserve list yielding 14,000 residential units is predicted, given the high housing prises and strong demand for both housing units and land. On the Confirmed list could be some sites from the current Reserve list with one or two new sites that had never been released. Some predicted that 6,000-6,500 units could be released under both the Confirmed and Reserve Lists, 10% less than H1s release since the units launched from previous GLS sites were more than the expected number of units given the smaller unit sizes. Others suggest that if the number of units released remains the same, there might be restrictions o the number of units per plot to prevent developers from building too many shoebox units. Meanwhile, some predict the release of one or two residential plots in the Central Region and Kallang Riverside, especially since the area was planned as a work-live precinct and a growth area under the Master Plan 2008. Sites in the latter could also come with ground floor retail/commercial components. MND is also expected to release more hotel sites given the demand for such sites in good central locations and near MRT stations.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 New commercial sites are unlikely to be released given the current slow office market and pipeline supply, though the Paya Lebar commercial site which was withdrawn late last year may be rereleased. Things to look out for at Mount Sophia Mount Sophia in District 9 near Dhoby Ghaut MRT is heating up with a project launch and a property on collective sale. Freehold residential project 1919 will be launched in early June at an attractive price range of $2,000 psf to $2,200 psf with the prices of ground floor PES units starting from $1,600 psf. There are 39 one-bedroom units with study (560-775 sq ft), 31 two-bedroom units (646-1001 sq ft, with or without study), and five three-bedroom units (1001 or 1302 sq ft). It is expected to draw singles and DINK (double income, no kids) couples given its
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location in the Mount Sophia neighbourhood and its proximity to the many attractions. The development is expected to be completed in 2015. Meanwhile, freehold Sophia Mansions, a residential development located at Adis Road is asking for $42.5-$45 million or $1,1601,228 psf ppr based on a 2.1 gross plot ratio on the 17,545 sq ft land area, inclusive of development charge. The potential gross floor area of about 36,840 sq ft means that it could possibly be redeveloped into a 6-storey high boutique development with 35 1,000-sq ft apartments. Zoned residential, the site can have a maximum height of 36 m above sea level. Developments on the site may prove popular with the working class, small families and investors given its proximity to the Singapore Management University and the School of the Arts.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 The tender for Sophia Mansions will close on June 27. March launch of HDB flats benefits both first- and second-timers The March launch of a combined BTO (BuildTo-Order) and SBF (Sale of Balance Flats) offering with 8,000 new flats meant that the revised balloting rules could be tested out and it proved successful, with more success in second-timers applications and a reasonable success rate for first-timers. Both overall firsttimer application rate and the application rate in non-mature estates fell, with the former falling from 2.2 to 1.6 and the latter 1.9 to 1.3. If the application rate for first-timers remained below 2, second-timers would have a higher chance t getting new flats. The overall application rate of 2.5 (11,410 applications for 4,600 new flats) was also encouraging. Toh Yi
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Studio Apartments, which was earlier criticised for its location on a slope, making it less elderly-friendly, also saw 220 applications for its 132 units. The Ageing-in-Place Priority Scheme was also a success as all Toh Yi residents who applied for the flat got to select a unit. 99-year Pasir Ris Drive 3 residential site draws five bids The 99-year leasehold 240,222 sq ft residential site located at Pasir Ris Drive 3 drew a total of five bids, with the top bid of $211 million, or $418.3 psf ppr from Capital Development. Though the top bid was within expectations, the competition from the more attractive Elias Road site sold in April and Sea Esta at Loyang Besar explains the relatively low number of bids. Pasir Ris Park, PA Pasir Ris Holiday Complex and Pasir Ris Beach is
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 within walking distance while Pasir Ris MRT station and White Sands shopping mall are a short drive away. Elias Mall and West Plaza also provide the amenities. Its expected breakeven cost is around $800 psf. Record sales of 2,200 homes by Far East from January to May Far East Org Organization will be offering up to 3% discounts to mark the record sales of 2,200 homes in the first five months of the year. The sales from Far Easts projects have been driving the recovery in the private housing market, with Watertowns sales accounting for over half the 1,872 units sold in January and Hillstas sales the driving force behind April's record home sales. Developers are likely to continue building in the suburban area to meet local demand, since suburban home prices are more affordable for locals.
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The government may introduce more cooling measures given the recent increase in home sales. However, home sales in May have fallen when compared to Aprils sales, possibly as a result of the negative economic outlook from the Europes financial crisis. Wing Tai chairman predicts oversupply in the housing market

As buyers fear future price increases, they may choose to buy a property now instead of waiting. This may result in an overestimated projected demand in the next few years, which may be problematic given the oversupply and if the economic conditions are bad. Past rounds of cooling measures failed to keep a lid on rising prices, even with the increase in supply, suggesting that there is pent-up demand from the earlier undersupply, the growing population and the current
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 strong liquidity and low interest rate. Smaller price gap between suburban and CBD homes Villa Des Flores up for sale in the collective market Freehold Villa Des Flores located in the prime District 11 is up for sale with a $160-165 million or $1,533-1,581price tag. Zoned for landed housing development, the 104,370 sq ft site located near Orchard Road shopping belt and top schools consist of 28 four-storey walk-up apartments (1,378-2,088 sq ft) and 13 town houses (2,034-2,702 sq ft) and can be redeveloped into a project with two-storey mixed landed housing with detached, semidetached, terrace houses or a combination of them, based on either conventional housing types or as a cluster housing development. If redeveloped as a cluster landed project, 24 strata bungalows, 48 strata semi-detached or 64 strata terrace houses could potentially be built.

The price gap between condo units in the suburban areas and units in the CBD and prime districts have been narrowing, as a result of the improved MRT network, increased amenities and the slower luxury housing market. However, the price is unlikely to narrow further since there is still a perceived prestige in owning properties in prime locations.
The average launch price of suburban condo units is around $1,000 psf. To cool the mass market segment, the government can consider releasing more sites further away from MRT stations since such property and land values for these sites are lower than those nearer train stations.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 Private resale home transaction volumes trending upwards The number of private home resale deals hit 2,551 by May 31, compared to 2,117 in Q1. This came as a surprise since the spike in March to 1,142 resale transactions was not expected to happen again. This is especially since only 332 such transactions were completed by April 24. Furthermore, the uncertain global economic conditions had worsened in the months since March. This suggests that the increase in transactions was due to occupier demand. Meanwhile, the figure for Q2 2012 is expected to hit 3,300 to 3,500 units as buyers, encouraged by the primary market and the high prices in new launches, re-enters the resale market. HDB resale prices also reflected an upward trend, having increased by 2.05% in April and May to $438,800 from $430,000 in Q1 with
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the highest price increases from Bukit Panjang (by 7.6% to $460,000), Bukit Merah (by 7.55% to $591,500), and Marine Parade (by 7.37% to $502,500). However, the prices are unlikely to increase further since buyers may not be willing to pay the high cash over valuations. Meanwhile, rental volumes for private nonlanded units decreased by 33.2% from 7,504 in Q1 to 5,014 in April-May while rental yield decreased by 25 basis points to 4%. Rental yield in the Core Central region (CCR) fell from 3.42% to 3.19%, while the yield in the Rest of Central region (RCR) fell by 12 basis points to 4%. Rental yield in the Outside Central Region (OCR) also fell by 20 basis points to 4%. Some believe that the downward trend for rental yield is not a cause for concern since the low interest rate meant lower refinancing. The lower volume rental,
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 however, may be a cause for concern. Commercial Units at freehold Paya Lebar industrial project selling at record prices above $1,000 psf The strata-titled freehold industrial project, AZ@ Payar Lebar, located along Paya Lebar road has been selling at record high prices above $1,000 psf. This is attributed to the projects proximity to the MacPherson MRT station and the small unit sizes (mainly below 1,400 sq ft) as well as its freehold status. Ground floor units were sold at $1,700-2,100 psf and above, while other units were sold at $1,110 psf onwards. Though high, prices are still within expectations. The overall average launch price for the units (979-2,497 sq ft) is between $1,000-1,100 psf. 103 of the 201 units had been sold. The units could prove
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attractive to businesses and SMEs given its proximity to the MRT and the direct car park access in its design. Demand and high prices for industrial properties a cause for concern The sudden increase in speculative demand for industrial property and the high prices are cause for concern as many investors are new to the market. These investors may not achieve the high rental yield they expected, especially with the huge upcoming supply of factory and warehouse space (3,696,000 sq m and 1,192,000 sq m respectively by 2015), which may lead to a tenant shortage and lower rental rates. Furthermore, with the prices of industrial property rising faster than rents (up 26% in Q1 2012 from Q1 2011 compared to the 10.6% for rents),
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 the rental yields have begun falling. While some marketing agents have been asking for more than twice the market rates ($4-6 psf), they are likely trying to attract quasi office users, especially since some buildings resemble office buildings. Rents for light industrial space are usually in the range of $1.80 to $2 psf. However, owners who are seeking high rental yields from this may face enforcement action from the URA. Furthermore, the negative global economic outlook as a result of Europes financial crisis may lead to tenants of such spaces preterminating their contracts and owners of strata title industrial units dumping the property. While the government have been introducing measures to discourage speculative demand, such as the new strata sub-division conditions for sites near MRT stations and the minimum
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unit size of 1,615 sq ft or 150 sq m, the effects of these measures will only be felt much later. Meanwhile, the number of shoebox units has been on the rise, with 50% of the transactions in the first five months of 2012 being such units, compared to 37% in the whole of 2011. Prices also remained high, with freehold AZ@Paya Lebar having a record high average launch price of $1,0001,100 psf and freehold Arcsphere@Aljunied at $950-980 psf.

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55

Are En-bloc deals still hot?

By Getty Goh Many Singaporeans have long had a love affair with en-bloc property deals. Ever since the red hot en-bloc market in the mid-2000s, when we used to read about how some lucky property owners became millionaires overnight from en-bloc deals, some Singaporeans have been actively seeking out the next big en-bloc deal.

However, the Singapore property market has evolved significantly in the last few years. For those who are still on the lookout for the next big en-bloc deal, the question they should ask themselves is whether en-bloc deals are as profitable as they used to be?
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 Analyzing the En-bloc Transaction Volume Some of you may recall that during 2006 and 2007, there were frequent media reports on en-bloc news transactions. On hindsight, the en-bloc market then was indeed very active. The high level of en-bloc activity could be seen from the high volume as well as amount transacted in 2006 and 2007 (see Figure 1). Figure 1: Transacted Volume and Amount for En-bloc (1995- 2011) Due to the global financial crisis, the years that followed (i.e. 2008 and 2009) saw low enbloc activity. The level of interest in en-bloc deals subsequently picked up again in 2010 and 2011. However, at a total transaction amount of around $2billion, the current market is a far cry from the peak of 2006 and 2007 (more than $8billion and $12billion respectively). More importantly, we can conclude that the en-bloc property market is not vibrant as it used to be and investors who are looking to find the next en-bloc deal would have to be more selective and not jump at any old development.

Location, Location Location! Where is the hottest en-bloc location?

It is not surprising that en-bloc deals are not uniformly distributed across Singapore and some districts have more en-bloc transactions
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Source: URA Realis and Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 than others. However, what would be of interest to investors is where these hot enbloc locations are. Why are there more en-bloc deals in these 5 districts? To answer this question, we turn to the past Government Land Sales (GLS) transactions for the answer.

Looking at en-bloc transactions since 2009, my research team at Ascendant Assets found that the top 5 districts that had the highest number of en-bloc transactions are as follows.
Figure 2: Top 5 Districts that saw the highest number of en-bloc transactions (Jan 2009 to March 2012)

Land is a very important component in any property transaction. To acquire land for a project, property developers have two main sources to turn to. The first source is to buy public land from the government via GLS program. The second source is to purchase private land from existing owners via the enbloc process. Hence, developers who wish to

profit from housing demand in locations that

have little (or no) public land for sale would have to turn to en-bloc deals. Source: URA Realis and Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 Figure 3: GLS around Singapore from 2000-2011 2009 to 2011 are up-and-coming areas that have limited public land for sale. Age of the En-bloc Development Apart from location, when it comes to en-bloc deals, we would intuitively think that an older development would generally stand a higher chance to be an en-bloc candidate. While that may be the case, have you wondered what is the average age of successful en-bloc deals? Source: URA and Ascendant Assets Pte Ltd From my companys research, we found that the average age of successful en-bloc transactions is 22 years (from when the development was deemed to be completed to when it was sold collectively). Hence investors who wish to find suitable en-bloc candidates should potentially go for developments that are at least 20 years old.

By visually analyzing the GLS map in Figure 3, it is observed that the top 5 en-bloc locations (highlighted in red) are districts that did not have much government land for sale. This seems to support our hypothesis that locations that have been en-bloc hotspots in

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55 Nonetheless, it does not mean that young developments do not stand a chance of being an en-bloc candidate. Based on caveats this market segment would have to be more selective in their purchase. Those of you who would like to have the full list of districts and

lodged

with

URA,

the

youngest

their distribution of en-bloc transactions (as

shown in Figure 2), do feel free to drop me an email at Research@AscendantAssets.com. I would be happy to share our findings. Who knows, using some of the information that we

development that was sold collectively was a 4-year old project called the Olivio (located in the Balestier). It was bought by the Sim Lian Group in 2006. However, older developments

generally tend to be more viable en-bloc

candidates. Putting all these facts together, we can conclude that the en-bloc market is not as

have provided here, perhaps you would be

able to find the next en-bloc mega deal. By Getty Goh, Director of Ascendant Assets, a real estate research and investment

active as it once was. While going for en-bloc

deals is not something that I would do right now, investors who are still keen to look at

consultancy firm.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of May 23 May 29
Postal District 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 Project Name THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY THE SAIL @ MARINA BAY EMERALD GARDEN THE REGENCY AT TIONG BAHRU RIVER PLACE ALESSANDREA THE ANCHORAGE THE ANCHORAGE CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY THE PEARL @ MOUNT FABER HARBOURLIGHTS CARABELLE BOTANNIA PASIR VIEW PARK NORMANTON PARK REGENT PARK DOVER PARKVIEW REGENT PARK PASIR PANJANG COURT FABER CREST WESTCOVE CONDOMINIUM TEXTILE CENTRE RACE COURSE RD/OWEN RD CON AREA HELIOS RESIDENCES HELIOS RESIDENCES Area (sqft) 1,647 678 1,238 1,281 872 1,001 1,421 1,238 1,249 1,173 883 1,475 1,227 1,335 1,270 915 936 1,173 1,313 1,356 1,130 1,001 3,197 1,281 1,281 Transacted Price ($) 3,129,300 1,250,000 1,850,000 1,858,000 1,210,000 1,250,000 1,690,000 1,280,000 1,900,000 1,420,000 1,000,000 1,680,000 1,335,000 1,400,000 1,310,000 942,000 920,000 1,100,000 1,188,000 1,188,000 915,000 888,000 4,100,000 4,838,900 4,737,300 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,900 99 1,843 99 1,495 999 1,451 FH 1,388 99 1,249 FH 1,189 FH 1,034 FH 1,522 99 1,210 99 1,133 FH 1,139 956 1,088 956 1,049 FH 1,031 102 1,030 99 982 99 938 99 905 FH 876 99 810 99 887 99 1,282 FH 3,778 FH 3,698 FH Postal District 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 Project Name THE METZ BELLE VUE RESIDENCES THE COSMOPOLITAN UE SQUARE THE IMPERIAL 8 @ MOUNT SOPHIA CUSCADEN RESIDENCES ARDMORE II TANGLIN PARK BALMORAL HILLS MONTVIEW THE TESSARINA ALLSWORTH PARK THE ASTON THE TESSARINA DUCHESS CREST HOLLAND COURT RIDGEWOOD SOLEIL @ SINARAN RESIDENCES @ EVELYN LUCIDA GLOUCESTER MANSIONS ADAM PARK CONDOMINIUM MANDALE HEIGHTS RITZ MANSIONS Area (sqft) 581 2,347 1,399 506 1,808 1,453 2,088 2,024 1,765 1,389 1,744 1,313 1,959 1,109 1,033 1,378 1,948 2,002 936 1,539 624 893 958 764 1,302 Transacted Price ($) 1,550,000 6,106,700 2,775,000 950,000 3,100,000 2,248,000 5,510,000 5,100,000 3,533,800 2,630,000 2,680,000 1,850,000 2,758,000 1,530,000 1,390,000 1,740,000 2,450,000 2,400,000 1,820,000 2,625,000 1,035,000 1,380,000 1,341,800 1,008,000 1,300,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 2,667 FH 2,602 FH 1,983 FH 1,878 929 1,714 FH 1,547 103 2,639 FH 2,520 FH 2,002 FH 1,894 FH 1,537 FH 1,409 FH 1,408 999 1,380 FH 1,345 FH 1,263 99 1,258 FH 1,199 999 1,943 99 1,705 FH 1,658 FH 1,545 FH 1,401 FH 1,319 FH 998 FH

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55

Postal District 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 Area Transacted Price Tenure (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) 3,348 2,868,000 857 FH 936 1,150,000 1,228 FH 904 1,050,000 1,161 FH 635 830,000 1,307 FH 1,173 1,320,000 1,125 FH 1,173 1,280,000 1,091 FH 958 950,000 992 99 1,001 908,800 908 FH 2,099 3,445,000 1,641 FH 2,928 3,952,800 1,350 FH 1,109 1,420,000 1,281 99 1,195 1,430,000 1,197 FH 990 1,170,000 1,181 FH 883 950,000 1,076 FH 915 960,000 1,049 FH 1,335 1,320,000 989 FH 1,292 1,270,000 983 FH 1,259 1,150,000 913 FH 1,087 960,000 883 FH 1,281 1,050,000 820 FH 1,216 997,000 820 99 2,476 2,000,000 808 FH 1,001 1,185,000 1,184 FH 1,238 1,455,000 1,175 99 1,238 1,289,587 1,042 FH 678 699,000 1,031 99 1,238 1,235,000 998 99 1,292 1,250,000 968 99 Postal District 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 Area Transacted Price Tenure (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) 893 845,000 946 99 1,324 1,220,000 921 99 1,249 1,130,000 905 FH 1,206 1,041,800 864 99 657 665,000 1,013 FH 883 870,000 986 FH 1,302 995,000 764 FH 1,701 1,245,000 732 FH 1,507 1,100,000 730 999 1,345 1,320,000 981 99 1,324 1,240,000 937 99 1,496 1,285,000 859 99 1,238 1,025,000 828 99 1,173 900,000 767 99 1,044 796,000 762 99 1,733 1,250,000 721 99 1,464 1,850,000 1,264 FH 1,647 1,670,000 1,014 99 1,389 1,380,000 994 999 1,270 1,250,000 984 FH 1,152 1,130,000 981 999 1,173 940,000 801 99 1,066 845,000 793 99 1,087 850,000 782 99 1,798 1,400,000 779 99 1,152 888,888 772 99 1,173 818,000 697 99 1,249 1,600,000 1,281 99

Project Name TRELLIS TOWERS PARC MONDRIAN ONE LEICESTER THE WATERINA LE CRESCENDO BLISS VILLE ASTORIA PARK ATRIUM RESIDENCES THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER THE SEA VIEW COTE D'AZUR SEA AVENUE RESIDENCES SANDALWOOD HAIG ELEVEN TEMBELING MANSIONS PARK EAST PARK EAST SERAYA VILLE VILLA INDAH SILAHIS APARTMENT LEGENDA AT JOO CHIAT EAST GALLERIA EAST COAST RESIDENCES COSTA DEL SOL THE SUMMIT THE CLEARWATER THE BAYSHORE BAYSHORE PARK

Project Name AQUARIUS BY THE PARK AQUARIUS BY THE PARK THE TROPIC GARDENS AQUARIUS BY THE PARK ESTELLA GARDENS FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM CARISSA PARK CONDOMINIUM BALLOTA PARK CONDOMINIUM AZALEA PARK CONDOMINIUM LIVIA LIVIA CHANGI RISE CONDOMINIUM THE TROPICA EASTPOINT GREEN MELVILLE PARK SAVANNAH CONDOPARK AMARANDA GARDENS THE SPRINGBLOOM PALM GROVE CONDOMINIUM KOVAN PRIMERA GILLENIA CASA ROSA EVERGREEN PARK EVERGREEN PARK RIO VISTA REGENTVILLE EVERGREEN PARK CLOVER BY THE PARK

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 55

Postal District 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 26 26 28 Project Name SIN MING PLAZA THE GARDENS AT BISHAN SEASONS VIEW BRADDELL VIEW BRADDELL VIEW CAVENDISH PARK SIGNATURE PARK SIGNATURE PARK THE RAINTREE CLEMENTI PARK SPRINGDALE CONDOMINIUM PANDAN VALLEY PINE GROVE SHERWOOD TOWER PARK NATURA HILLBROOKS HILLVIEW HEIGHTS MAYSPRINGS MAYSPRINGS THE PETALS THE WARREN REGENT HEIGHTS PARKVIEW APARTMENTS REGENT GROVE CASTLE GREEN CASTLE GREEN SUNRISE GARDENS Area Transacted Price Tenure (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) 1,485 1,500,000 1,010 FH 883 858,000 972 99 1,141 1,100,000 964 99 1,453 1,196,000 823 99 3,369 2,480,000 736 99 1,227 1,330,000 1,084 99 1,055 1,080,000 1,024 FH 1,087 1,110,000 1,021 FH 1,389 1,410,000 1,015 99 1,658 1,620,000 977 FH 1,152 1,100,000 955 999 2,669 2,535,000 950 FH 1,755 1,638,000 934 99 1,518 1,030,000 679 99 1,744 2,000,000 1,147 FH 1,238 1,200,000 969 FH 1,270 1,210,000 953 FH 807 747,000 925 99 807 738,000 914 99 1,195 1,000,000 837 FH 1,475 1,160,000 787 99 1,173 875,000 746 99 1,119 820,000 732 99 1,173 830,000 707 99 1,152 870,700 756 99 1,593 1,060,000 665 99 1,076 818,000 760 99

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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